1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of Guosheng bond - related fundamentals from November 3, 2025, to November 9, 2025. It shows that the Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is stable with changes in various sub - indicators. The interest - rate bond long - short signal is adjusted downwards, and different economic aspects such as production, demand, prices, inventory, transportation, and financing present different trends [1][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index is Stable - The Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 128.6 points (previous value: 128.5 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 6.1 points (previous value: 6.0 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The interest - rate bond long - short signal factor is 4.4% (previous value: 4.6%), a decrease of 0.2 percentage points [1][9][11]. 3.2 Production: Electric Furnace Operating Rate Drops - The industrial production high - frequency index is 127.5 points (previous value: 127.4 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.0 point and a year - on - year increase of 5.3 points (previous value: 5.4 points), and the year - on - year increase is narrowing. The electric furnace operating rate is 59.6% (previous value: 60.9%), a decrease of 1.3 percentage points [1][9][15]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Drops Significantly - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 41.7 points (previous value: 41.9 points), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 point and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2 points (previous value: 6.1 points), and the year - on - year decrease is expanding. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities is 18.8 million square meters (previous value: 31.7 million square meters), a decrease of 12.9 million square meters [1][9][29]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Drops - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 122.4 points (previous value: 122.3 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 9.0 points (previous value: 8.8 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The asphalt operating rate is 29.7% (previous value: 31.5%), a decrease of 1.8 percentage points [1][9][44]. 3.5 Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Rise - The export high - frequency index is 143.6 points (previous value: 143.6 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.0 point and a year - on - year increase of 1.0 point (previous value: 1.1 points), and the year - on - year increase is narrowing. The CCFI index is 1058.2 points (previous value: 1021.4 points), an increase of 36.8 points [46]. 3.6 Consumption: Average Daily Movie Box Office Drops - The consumption high - frequency index is 120.6 points (previous value: 120.7 points), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.0 point and a year - on - year increase of 3.6 points (previous value: 3.6 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The average daily movie box office is 29630,000 yuan (previous value: 30900,000 yuan), a decrease of 1270,000 yuan [1][9][55]. 3.7 CPI: Food Prices Rise Slightly Overall - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is - 0.1% (previous value: 0.0%). The average wholesale price of pork is 18.1 yuan/kg (previous value: 18.0 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.8 yuan/kg (previous value: 5.6 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.1 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.1 yuan/kg), and the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.5 yuan/kg) [2][61]. 3.8 PPI: Spot Prices of Copper and Aluminum Drop - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%). The spot settlement price of LME copper is 10704 US dollars/ton (previous value: 10964 US dollars/ton), a decrease of 261 US dollars/ton; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2859 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2868 US dollars/ton), a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton [2][64]. 3.9 Transportation: Transportation High - Frequency Index Rises Steadily - The transportation high - frequency index is 132.4 points (previous value: 132.1 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 point and a year - on - year increase of 10.4 points (previous value: 10.3 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 39790,000 person - times (previous value: 40550,000 person - times), a decrease of 750,000 person - times; the road logistics freight rate index is 1050 points (previous value: 1049 points), an increase of 0.3 point; the number of domestic flights is 12273 (previous value: 12461), a decrease of 188 [2][76]. 3.10 Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Increases - The inventory high - frequency index is 162.9 points (previous value: 162.8 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 8.0 points (previous value: 8.1 points), and the year - on - year increase is narrowing. The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 11.6 million tons (previous value: 8.5 million tons), an increase of 3.1 million tons; the soda ash inventory is 170.3 million tons (previous value: 169.7 million tons), an increase of 0.6 million tons [2][82]. 3.11 Financing: Net Financing of Local Bonds Drops Significantly - The financing high - frequency index is 241.6 points (previous value: 241.0 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 point and a year - on - year increase of 30.4 points (previous value: 30.4 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The net financing of local bonds is - 36 billion yuan (previous value: 178 billion yuan), a decrease of 213.9 billion yuan; the net financing of credit bonds is 92 billion yuan (previous value: - 12.6 billion yuan), an increase of 104.6 billion yuan [2][94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, China's CPI increased both year - on - year and month - on - month, with the core CPI showing continuous growth. The PPI decline narrowed, indicating some improvement in the domestic economic situation. The implementation of policies to expand domestic demand continued to show results [3][41]. - The US government "shutdown" has a negative impact on the economy, and although the September inflation data slowed down more than expected, it is difficult to change the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm [45][46]. - In November 2025, the RMB exchange rate showed a stable operation trend, supported by multiple factors, and is expected to maintain a stable tone in the future [54]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - **GDP**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with a growth rate 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024. The actual GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 4.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the second quarter [17]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In September 2025, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.64% month - on - month. The high - tech manufacturing industry accelerated its growth, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.6% from January to September [18]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: The year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in the first nine months turned negative, at - 0.7%. In September, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 7.1% year - on - year. Real estate investment continued to cool down, while the decline in narrow - sense infrastructure investment narrowed [18]. - **Social Retail Consumption**: In September 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.0% year - on - year. The growth rate of service retail sales from January to September was 5.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value [18]. - **Unemployment Rate**: In September 2025, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [18]. - **Import and Export Data**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, a 4% year - on - year increase. In September, exports and imports in US dollars increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, exceeding expectations [7]. 3.2 Financial Situation - **Social Financing Data**: In September 2025, China's new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, and the stock of social financing at the end of September was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan [35]. - **Credit Data**: In September 2025, credit increased by 129 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 30 billion yuan. The recovery rhythm of credit demand was uneven, and the structure continued to improve [36]. - **Money Supply**: In September 2025, the M2 - M1 scissors gap reached a new low for the year, at 1.2 percentage points, reflecting positive signals such as increased business activity and recovery of personal investment and consumption demand [35]. 3.3 Price - Related - **CPI**: In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year and month - on - month. The core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for the sixth consecutive month. Food and energy prices were still at a low level, but the decline rates narrowed [41]. - **PPI**: In October 2025, the PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, the first increase this year, and decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline rate narrowing for the third consecutive month [41]. 3.4 Overseas Macro - **US Economy**: In September 2025, the US CPI data slowed down more than expected, mainly affected by the decline in rent prices. The US federal government "shutdown" has a negative impact on the economy, and the Fed may still cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October [45][46]. - **Eurozone Economy**: In October 2025, the Eurozone HICP decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the core HICP remained unchanged [14]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **RMB Exchange Rate**: In November 2025, the RMB exchange rate showed a stable operation trend, supported by factors such as the recovery of the domestic economic fundamentals, improvement of the international balance of payments, and policy guidance. It is expected to maintain a stable tone in the future [54]. - **Interest Rates**: The report also presented data on various interest rates such as DR007, SHIBOR, LPR, and government bond yields [55][56].

ETF Market Overview - As of November 7, the performance of ETF products varied, with the CSI 2000 showing the highest increase among major broad-based ETFs, while the new energy theme ETF had the largest increase among industry and thematic products [2][9] - In the past two weeks, major broad-based ETFs such as CSI A500, CSI 2000, and Sci-Tech 50 ETF saw net inflows, while the ChiNext ETF experienced the largest net outflow [2][9] - The recent trend indicates a shift from net inflows to net outflows in cyclical and military industry ETFs, while pharmaceutical ETFs saw accelerated inflows [2][16] ETF Fund Flow Analysis - The cumulative fund flow for broad-based ETFs has shown a trend of outflows turning into inflows and then back to outflows since the beginning of 2025, with A-series ETFs consistently experiencing outflows [10] - Recent net outflows for broad-based ETFs have slowed down, with CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 transitioning from net outflows to net inflows [10][16] - As of November 7, the total number of newly established ETFs in the past two weeks was 16, with a total issuance of 6.53 billion units, of which 13 were stock ETFs and 3 were QDII ETFs [24] Thematic ETF Tracking - In the technology theme ETFs, products tracking the Hang Seng Technology index saw the highest net inflows, while those tracking consumer electronics experienced net outflows [30] - For dividend theme ETFs, products tracking the S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index had the highest net inflows, while those tracking the dividend index saw net outflows [32] Popular Thematic ETFs - AI-themed ETFs, which have a high proportion of AI stocks, experienced an average return of -2.99% with a net inflow of 1.56 billion [2] - New energy-themed ETFs had an average return of 7.67% but saw a net outflow of 5.72 billion [2] - The total holdings of ETFs by Central Huijin, Guoxin, and Chengtong reached 391.34 billion units, with a net outflow of 2.11 billion in the past two weeks [2]

Group 1 - The resolution of the U.S. government shutdown has led to a significant shift in market sentiment towards optimism, with expectations of a strong market rebound [1] - Approximately $1 trillion is expected to flow back into the economy from the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA), injecting substantial liquidity into the market [1] - The S&P 500 futures saw an increase of $21 billion in open contracts, indicating a rise in long positions rather than short covering [2] Group 2 - Institutional investors' overall positions remain low, similar to levels seen at the end of September, suggesting potential forced buying if market sentiment reverses [4] - The TGA balance has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time since April 2021, indicating a significant liquidity drain from the market over the past three months [4] - The release of liquidity from the TGA could lead to a large-scale buying spree of risk assets, reminiscent of the "invisible quantitative easing" seen in early 2021 [4] Group 3 - Technology stocks have experienced their largest weekly pullback since April, driven by high valuations and macroeconomic uncertainties [5] - Despite a rebound in major tech stocks, investors face ongoing concerns regarding interest rate policies and the performance of AI investments [5] - Consumer sentiment has shifted, with companies failing to meet expectations facing severe penalties, while those exceeding expectations receive minimal rewards [6] Group 4 - The industrial sector is experiencing increased volatility, with a heightened focus on companies' future guidance amid a lack of strong market performance [6] - Goldman Sachs anticipates the government shutdown will likely end around the second week of November, with key pressure points related to payroll for air traffic and airport security personnel [8]

岁末年初，港股高股息资产更吸睛 20251109 港股银行板块中，国有大行和部分股份行经营稳定，分红水平长期稳定 在 30%左右，平均分红收益介于 4.3%至 5.4%之间。中信银行资产质 量改善显著，分红收益也达到 5.4%。渝农商行受益于成渝经济圈建设， 港股对应 2025 年的股息率约为 5.4%。 油气煤电板块推荐中海油和中国神华，成本管控能力强，现金流状况良 好，有提升派息率空间。公用事业板块关注华润燃气和新奥能源，华润 燃气商业模式稳健，新奥能源私有化若成功，股息率可观。 高端商业地产复苏主线下，关注华润万象生活、太古地产和恒隆地产， 预计 2026 年平均股息率约为 5.5%。香港楼市企稳，利好新鸿基地产 和恒基地产。消费板块关注百胜中国、美高梅中国和华住集团，食品饮 料板块关注统一企业中国。 当期收益。此外，折现率从 750 日移动平均国债收益率曲线改为财报日市场利 率，使得负债现值对短期利率波动更加敏感，也促使保险公司通过配置高股息 股票来平滑利润表上的波动。 高股息股票在港股市场中的表现如何？ 根据统计数据，自 2015 年以来，港股高股息资产在一季度和四季度取得正收 益的概率分别为 73 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on November 10, with the consumer sector showing significant gains, particularly the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735), which rose by 1.44% during trading [1] - Notable stocks within the ETF included Pop Mart, Great Wall Motors, which both increased by over 3%, along with other companies like Giant Bio, Tencent Holdings, and China Resources Beer also seeing upward movement [1] - As of November 7, the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) has seen a nearly 140% increase in its year-to-date share volume [1] Group 2 - The National Bureau of Statistics released October price data indicating a month-on-month increase of 0.2% in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.2%, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking its first rise of the year [1] - Changjiang Securities noted that the rise in CPI and PPI is attributed to seasonal factors, low base effects, and the "anti-involution" trend, with expectations for continued strength in CPI towards the end of the year [2] - Huajin Securities highlighted that the improvement in core CPI and PPI reflects stable growth in service consumption and rising food prices, while the "anti-involution" trend has led to a narrowing of PPI declines [2]

Core Viewpoint - The foundation of the Hong Kong stock market bull run remains intact, but the evolution is likely to exhibit characteristics of "oscillating upward with a gradually rising focus" rather than a rapid one-sided increase. The fundamental drivers in November are strong, emphasizing the value of high-prosperity sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent volatility in the Hang Seng Technology Index is attributed to the reversal of previous favorable factors, leading to temporary liquidity pressure in the Hong Kong stock market [1]. - The current net profit growth rate and price increase may appear divergent; however, the recent rise in the Hong Kong stock market is strongly supported by fundamentals, with new industries experiencing explosive growth while traditional sectors lag [4]. - Industries with performance support, such as new energy, AI, non-ferrous metals, steel, and semiconductors, have seen larger price increases, while sectors with declining performance growth, like real estate, infrastructure, consumption, and finance, have seen smaller price increases [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Over 70% of companies in the Hong Kong stock market are domestic enterprises, with revenue and profits derived from the Chinese economy. The operational trends of Hong Kong companies can be inferred from A-share financial reports [4]. - The overall stability and improvement in Chinese enterprises are attributed to advanced manufacturing, particularly in technology and external demand, despite ongoing pressures in traditional economic sectors [4]. Group 3: Future Triggers for Market Upturn - Potential triggers for the next phase of the Hong Kong stock market's rise include improvements in liquidity expectations, such as a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve's stance, the end of the U.S. government shutdown, and the cessation of balance sheet reduction by the Fed [8]. - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased to 66.9%, influenced by factors like the government shutdown and the Fed's balance sheet policies, which have led to a significant widening of the interest rate spread between SOFR and IORB [8][10].

Core Insights - The "A+H" market has expanded significantly this year, with 16 A-share companies listed in Hong Kong, raising a total of 1,040 million HKD, accounting for 48% of the total IPO fundraising in the Hong Kong market this year [1] - The performance of newly listed H-shares has shown divergence, with A-share premiums remaining mainstream but exhibiting a trend of differentiation [2] A-H Premium Analysis - As of November 9, the Hang Seng AH Premium Index stood at 118.42, a historical low, compared to a peak of 155.58 in early 2024 [2] - Among the 16 newly listed "A+H" stocks, there are both large-cap companies like Ningde Times and smaller firms like Xiamen Jihong Technology [2] - A total of 174 institutions participated as cornerstone investors in these 16 "A+H" stocks, including international investors like Morgan Stanley and local venture capital firms [2] - Historically, the AH premium phenomenon has existed, with 30 out of 166 A+H companies having an A-share premium rate exceeding 100% [2] Sector-Specific Premium Trends - Certain sectors have seen a significant narrowing of AH premium rates, such as the semiconductor industry, where Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group's A-share premium rate has dropped over 100 percentage points [3] - Innovative pharmaceutical companies have experienced valuation increases in the Hong Kong market, with Rongchang Bio's H-share price surging 476.74% this year, outperforming A-shares by over 200 percentage points [3] - High-dividend consumer stocks are also gaining favor, with Qingdao Beer’s AH premium rate falling to 35.61%, significantly below the average for the consumer staples sector [3] Valuation Dynamics - The price differences between A and H shares reflect varying investor valuations, as both markets are influenced by different investor bases [4] - The low AH premium index is attributed to continuous inflows of southbound capital, which reached a net purchase of 12,986.97 million HKD this year, altering traditional pricing logic in the Hong Kong market [5] - The ongoing valuation recovery in the Hong Kong market, particularly for state-owned enterprises and high-dividend sectors, is contributing to the narrowing gap between H and A shares [5]

Core Insights - MSCI's recent adjustment has led to the inclusion of 26 Chinese stocks, indicating a continued influx of foreign capital into A-shares [1][3] - The scale of this adjustment is 2-3 times larger than previous ones, with 17 new A-shares entering the index, prompting upgrades in expectations from firms like Goldman Sachs and Nomura [3] - The market behavior suggests that while institutions may be withdrawing, retail investors are still hesitant about chasing high prices, reflecting a common pattern of profit-taking during bullish trends [3][6] Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by complex trading behaviors, where perceived upward movements may actually indicate institutional selling, while downward trends could signal accumulation by large funds [3][6] - Quantitative analysis reveals that five instances of profit-taking signals (yellow bars) have historically coincided with market peaks, leading to significant corrections [6][8] - Conversely, four instances of bullish signals (blue bars) have marked key buying opportunities, suggesting that understanding these signals can provide strategic advantages [8] Investment Strategy - The MSCI adjustment serves as both a conclusion and a new beginning, emphasizing the importance of understanding market language rather than focusing solely on individual stocks [8] - Investors are encouraged to utilize quantitative data to track foreign capital flows and avoid the pitfalls of relying solely on traditional price movement analysis [8][9] - The ability to interpret market signals and data is highlighted as a crucial skill for navigating the complexities of the current investment landscape [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a rebound during the week of November 3 to 7, maintaining a high-level fluctuation pattern, with micro-cap and dividend stocks performing notably well while other indices showed mixed results [1][3]. Market Performance - The performance of major indices for the week and year-to-date is as follows: - Wind Micro-Cap Index: Weekly increase of 3.16%, Year-to-date increase of 83.54% - Dividend Index: Weekly increase of 2.85%, Year-to-date decrease of 0.53% - Shanghai Composite Index: Weekly increase of 1.08%, Year-to-date increase of 19.27% - CSI 2000: Weekly increase of 0.88%, Year-to-date increase of 33.35% - CSI 300: Weekly increase of 0.82%, Year-to-date increase of 18.90% - ChiNext Index: Weekly increase of 0.65%, Year-to-date increase of 49.80% - CSI 1000: Weekly increase of 0.47%, Year-to-date increase of 26.59% - Shenzhen Component Index: Weekly increase of 0.19%, Year-to-date increase of 28.70% - Sci-Tech 50: Weekly increase of 0.01%, Year-to-date increase of 43.15% - CSI 50: Weekly decrease of 0.04%, Year-to-date increase of 14.25% - CSI 500: Weekly decrease of 0.04%, Year-to-date increase of 27.98% - North Exchange 50: Weekly decrease of 3.79%, Year-to-date increase of 46.73% [2]. Stock Movement - The number of stocks that rose during the week increased slightly compared to the end of October, but overall, the market remained mixed with both gains and losses [5]. - On November 7, the number of stocks that rose was 2,977, while 2,423 stocks fell, compared to 2,861 rising and 2,523 falling on October 31 [6]. Sector Rotation - The market saw sector rotation due to the narrow fluctuation of indices without significant volume breakthroughs, with recent hot sectors experiencing ups and downs, while long-term low-performing sectors showed signs of recovery [7]. - The leading sectors for the week included power generation, chemicals, and certain regional stocks, while the sectors that declined were primarily those that had performed well in the previous week, such as pharmaceuticals and AI applications [7]. Investment Recommendations - Short-term investment advice suggests a balanced allocation towards sectors with upward policy and industry trends, such as new energy (wind power, energy storage, solid-state batteries), machinery (robots), non-ferrous metals, media (gaming), computing (AI applications), and pharmaceuticals [10]. - Sectors that may benefit from the "14th Five-Year Plan" and potential marginal improvements in fundamentals include consumption (food, retail), military (commercial aerospace), electronics (AI hardware), and communications (computing power) [10]. External Demand Concerns - There is a growing discussion regarding the weakening of external demand, which may lead to increased focus on domestic demand themes in the upcoming week [12]. - In October, China's total import and export value was 3.7 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 0.1%, with exports at 2.17 trillion yuan, down 0.8%, marking the first negative growth in monthly export growth since the second half of this year [12][13]. Upcoming Events - Important upcoming events include the China Robot Industry Development Conference on November 10, the International Summit on Battery New Energy Industry in Suzhou on November 11, and the World Power Battery Conference on November 12, among others [17].