Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain abundant, with demand hovering at the bottom. It is recommended to consider buying put options for the soda ash main contract. - For glass, it is advisable to temporarily wait and see as the price has encountered short - term platform resistance and the subsequent breakthrough is uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1338 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; glass main contract closing price: 1211 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 127 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. - Soda ash main contract open interest: 1074637 lots, down 177945 lots; glass main contract open interest: 1044115 lots, down 182849 lots. - Soda ash top 20 net open interest: - 225673 lots, up 77294 lots; glass top 20 net open interest: - 248449 lots, up 45449 lots. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 236 tons, up 236 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: - 59 yuan, unchanged; glass September - January contract spread: - 93 yuan, down 12 yuan. - Soda ash basis: - 95 yuan/ton, unchanged; glass basis: - 113 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1280 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash: 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged. - East China light soda ash: 1150 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash: 1195 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Shahe glass sheets: 1136 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; Central China glass sheets: 1170 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 84.1%, up 2.78 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.34%, down 0.34 percentage points. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.78 million tons/year, down 0.06 million tons; glass in - production production lines: 223, down 1. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 188.42 million tons, down 2.14 million tons; glass enterprise inventory: 6493.9 million heavy boxes, down 216.3 million heavy boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real estate new construction area: 30364.32 million square meters, up 7180.71 million square meters; cumulative real estate completion area: 22566.61 million square meters, up 4181.47 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - On July 22, a notice from the Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration to promote the stable and orderly supply of coal circulated online. The notice aims to regulate coal mining enterprises' production behavior. On July 23, it was confirmed to be true [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is abundant, with production increasing. Profits have slightly recovered but are still negative, and production is expected to decline. Natural alkali method will gradually become the mainstream. Glass production line cold - repaired 1, with overall production unchanged. Domestic soda ash enterprise inventory is increasing due to insufficient demand and is expected to continue to accumulate. - Glass: Supply - side production remains at the bottom, with signs of rigid - demand production. Industry profits have improved, and the resumption of production may increase. Demand - side, the real - estate situation is not optimistic, downstream deep - processing orders are declining, and photovoltaic glass also faces inventory pressure [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Adjusted from bullish to neutral and oscillatory [1] - Precious metals: Wide - range oscillation, not advisable to chase the uptrend [2] - Copper: Resistance at the upper integer level, cautious trading [3] - Aluminum: Short - term high - level oscillation, resistance around 21,000 yuan [4] - Cast aluminum alloy: More support compared to aluminum prices [5] - Alumina: High - level operation, beware of correction risks [6] - Zinc: Temporary wait - and - see, inclined to short above 23,000 [7] - Tin: Hold or increase short positions in far - month contracts [9] - Polysilicon: Temporary wait - and - see [10] - Industrial silicon: Expected to oscillate upward [11] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The futures market is expected to remain strong [12] - Iron ore: Short - term upward trend, but note increased volatility [13] - Coke: Likely to maintain the uptrend in the short term [14] - Coking coal: Likely to maintain the uptrend in the short term [15] - Manganese silicon: Follow the rebar trend, with a relatively small increase [16] - Ferrosilicon: Follow the rebar trend, with relatively weak increase [17] - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Short - term wide - range oscillation [18] - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil: FU is resistant to decline, LU follows crude oil [19] - Asphalt: BU cracking margin is expected to be supported [20] - Liquefied petroleum gas: The futures market runs weakly [21] - Urea: Expected to oscillate upward in the short term [22] - Methanol: The sustainability of the increase remains to be seen [23] - Pure benzene: Monthly spread band - trading, long in the short - to - medium term, short in the fourth quarter [24] - Styrene: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to change in the short term [25] - Polypropylene and plastic: Market sentiment improves, but fundamentals remain weak [25] - PVC and caustic soda: PVC follows the overall sentiment in the short term, caustic soda is affected by macro factors [26] - PX and PTA: Wait for downstream demand to recover [27] - Ethylene glycol: Short - term long - position allocation, beware of pressure at previous highs [28] - Short - fiber and bottle - grade chips: Consider long - position allocation for short - fiber in the medium term [29] - Glass: Follow macro sentiment in the short term, pay attention to capacity reduction in the long term [30] - 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and butadiene rubber: Adopt a rebound strategy [31] - Soda ash: Follow macro sentiment in the short term, pay attention to capacity elimination [32] - Soybean and soybean meal: Oscillate before tariff and weather issues are clear [33] - Soybean oil and palm oil: Long - position allocation on dips [34] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil: Short - term wait - and - see [35] - Soybean No.1: Follow weather and policy guidance in the short term [36] - Corn: Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate at the bottom [37] - Live pigs: Follow policy guidance, far - month contracts are stronger [38] - Eggs: Seasonal rebound, pay attention to cold - storage egg release [39] - Cotton: Temporary wait - and - see or intraday trading [40] - Sugar: Expected to oscillate [41] - Apples: Temporary wait - and - see [42] - Wood: Temporary wait - and - see [43] - Pulp: Temporary wait - and - see or light long - position on dips [44] - Stock index: Risk preference is expected to be oscillatory and bullish, increase allocation to technology growth [45] - Treasury bonds: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with an increased probability of a steeper yield curve [46] Core Views - The international oil price is affected by factors such as tariffs and geopolitics, showing a trend of first pressure and then potential support [1] - Precious metals are affected by macro - sentiment and policy uncertainty, showing wide - range oscillations [2] - Base metals are affected by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand, and inventory, with different trends [3][4][7] - Energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and international sanctions, with diverse price trends [19][20][21] - Agricultural products are affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand, with different investment strategies [33][34][35] - Financial products are affected by factors such as economic data, policies, and trade agreements, showing different trends [45][46] Summary by Categories Energy - Crude oil: Overnight international oil prices declined, and the market rating was adjusted to neutral and oscillatory. The impact of tariffs and geopolitics on oil prices is significant [1] - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil: The fuel oil system futures are under pressure, but FU is resistant to decline, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels continues to shrink [19] - Asphalt: The August refinery production plan decreased, and the low - inventory pattern supports the BU cracking margin [20] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Overseas markets are weak, and the domestic market is expected to stabilize under the situation of weak supply and demand [21] Metals - Precious metals: Overnight precious metals rose, and they are expected to oscillate widely due to policy uncertainty [2] - Base metals: - Copper: Overnight copper prices rose, and the market is waiting for the US tariff decision [3] - Aluminum: Aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level, and the cost provides support, but the inventory increase restricts the upward space [4][8] - Zinc: The supply pressure increases, and the short - term support is followed by the risk of a decline [7] - Tin: The price approaches the resistance area, and short positions in far - month contracts are recommended [9] - Alumina: It is at a high level, and the risk of a correction after a sharp increase needs attention [6] - Cast aluminum alloy: It is relatively strong compared to aluminum prices, and the supply shortage provides support [5] Chemicals - Polysilicon: The futures price hits the daily limit, and the cost transfer needs to be focused on [10] - Industrial silicon: Driven by polysilicon, it is expected to oscillate upward [11] - Methanol: Affected by coal production inspections, the sustainability of the increase remains to be seen [23] - Pure benzene: The spot price lags behind, and the monthly spread trading strategy is recommended [24] - Styrene: The supply and demand both increase slightly, and the inventory continues to accumulate [25] - Polypropylene and plastic: The market sentiment improves, but the fundamentals remain weak [25] - PVC and caustic soda: PVC is affected by capacity elimination and upstream news, and caustic soda is affected by macro factors [26] - PX and PTA: The price is under pressure, and the recovery of downstream demand is awaited [27] - Ethylene glycol: It is temporarily strong, but the supply increase may weaken the upward momentum [28] - Short - fiber and bottle - grade chips: Short - fiber may be long - position allocated in the medium term [29] Building Materials - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The steel price oscillates, and the market sentiment is optimistic due to policies [12] - Iron ore: The supply increases, and the demand is stable. The short - term trend is upward [13] - Coke: The price continues to rise, and the inventory decreases slightly [14] - Coking coal: The price hits the daily limit, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline [15] - Manganese silicon: The inventory decreases, and it follows the rebar trend [16] - Ferrosilicon: The demand is acceptable, and it follows the rebar trend with a weak increase [17] - Glass: Driven by macro - sentiment, the price rises, and the long - term focus is on capacity reduction [30] Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal: The US soybean good - quality rate declines slightly, and the price is expected to oscillate before the tariff and weather issues are clear [33] - Soybean oil and palm oil: The price oscillates, and long - position allocation on dips is recommended [34] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil: The price of Canadian rapeseed declines, and short - term wait - and - see is recommended [35] - Soybean No.1: It rebounds strongly, and the short - term focus is on weather and policies [36] - Corn: The US corn grows well, and the Dalian corn futures may oscillate at the bottom [37] - Live pigs: The futures market is strong, and the focus is on policy implementation [38] - Eggs: The price enters the seasonal rebound stage, and the cold - storage egg release needs attention [39] - Cotton: The price rises slightly, and temporary wait - and - see or intraday trading is recommended [40] - Sugar: The price is expected to oscillate due to factors such as production and trade [41] - Apples: The price of new - season early - maturing apples increases, and temporary wait - and - see is recommended [42] - Wood: The price oscillates, and the short - term upward momentum is insufficient [43] - Pulp: The price rises, and temporary wait - and - see or light long - position on dips is recommended [44] Financial Products - Stock index: The A - share market rises, and the risk preference is expected to remain strong. Increase allocation to technology growth [45] - Treasury bonds: The price declines, and the short - term oscillation is expected, with a steeper yield curve [46]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A target price of $70/barrel for WTI in the September hurricane season is set, and short - term long positions with profit - taking on dips are recommended [2]. - For methanol, the market is currently driven by news, with increased volatility and difficulty in operation. The upstream开工 continues to decline, and overseas supply disruptions are mostly priced in. The demand side is weak overall, and the upside is limited in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see after the sharp rise [4]. - Regarding urea, although affected by short - term sentiment, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable. The price has support at the bottom but is also suppressed by high supply at the top. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, NR and RU have been rising strongly, and the overall commodity market has strong bullish sentiment. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the second half of the year, with a medium - term bullish view. Short - term risks of pull - backs should be guarded against [8][11]. - For PVC, the pessimistic fundamental expectations have improved due to the extension of anti - dumping in India, but there are still pressures in supply - demand and valuation. The price is strong in the short term under the stimulation of anti - dumping extension and anti - involution sentiment [11]. - For benzene ethylene, the cost - side support has returned strongly, and the BZN spread is expected to repair. The price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [12][13]. - For polyethylene, the cost - side support has returned, but due to high trader inventories and weak seasonal demand, the price is expected to oscillate downward [15]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand in the off - season, the price is expected to be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [16]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. With high - level downstream PTA load and low inventory, there is limited short - term negative feedback from the polyester and terminal sectors. It is expected to continue de - stocking in the third quarter, and short - term long - position opportunities following crude oil on dips are worthy of attention [18][20]. - For PTA, supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and demand is under pressure in the off - season. However, due to low inventory and improved processing fees, the negative feedback pressure is small. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX on dips [21]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is expected to turn from strong to weak, but short - term inventory de - stocking at a low level provides support for the valuation [22]. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: On July 23, 2025, WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.71, or 1.06%, at $66.36; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.42, or 0.61%, at $68.67; INE main crude oil futures closed down 23.40 yuan, or 4.35%, at 514.7 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Fujeirah port's weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.02 million barrels to 8.30 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.23 million barrels to 2.18 million barrels, a 9.44% decrease; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.51 million barrels to 9.99 million barrels, a 4.87% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 0.72 million barrels to 20.47 million barrels, a 3.41% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 22, the 09 contract rose 46 yuan/ton to 2411 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 14 yuan/ton, with a basis of +1 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream开工 continued to decline, and overseas plant开工 returned to medium - high levels. The port olefin load increased this week, while traditional demand was in the off - season. The overall demand was weak, and the downstream profit margin was still low [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 22, the 09 contract rose 5 yuan/ton to 1817 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +3 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic开工 decreased slightly, and enterprise profits were at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizers started to pick up, and export container - loading continued, with rising port inventories [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU continued to rise strongly [8]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia may lead to production cuts, the seasonal trend is favorable in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 142 yuan to 5260 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 5080 (+40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 180 (- 102) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 114 (+5) yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side remained stable, the overall开工 rate increased, the downstream开工 decreased, factory inventories decreased, and social inventories increased. The fundamental pessimistic expectations improved, but supply - demand and valuation still faced pressure [11]. Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level in the same period and had room for upward repair [12][13]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost - side pure benzene开工 increased, supply was abundant, the benzene ethylene开工 continued to rise, port inventories increased significantly, and the demand - side three - S overall开工 rate fluctuated upward [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost - side support returned, the spot price remained unchanged, trader inventories were at a high level, and seasonal demand was weak. The price was expected to oscillate downward [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [16]. - **Fundamentals**: Shandong refinery profits stopped falling and rebounded, the开工 rate was expected to gradually recover, downstream开工 decreased seasonally, and the price was expected to be bearish in July [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 24 yuan to 6886 yuan, PX CFR rose 1 dollar to 843 dollars, the basis was 57 (- 22) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 96 (+4) yuan [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The PX load in China decreased slightly, the Asian load remained unchanged, some plants had changes, PTA load remained flat, imports decreased, inventories decreased, and the valuation was at a neutral level [18][20]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 14 yuan to 4794 yuan, the East China spot price fell 10 yuan to 4775 yuan, the basis was 2 (- 4) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 10 (- 6) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load remained unchanged, downstream load decreased, terminal load decreased, inventories increased, and the processing fee decreased. Supply was expected to accumulate inventory, and demand was under pressure in the off - season [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 37 yuan to 4447 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4490 yuan, the basis was 60 (- 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 6 (- 9) yuan [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side开工 decreased, downstream load decreased, import arrivals were expected, port inventories decreased, and the valuation was relatively high year - on - year. The fundamental situation was expected to turn weak, but short - term inventory de - stocking provided support [22].

Core Viewpoint - The listing of propylene futures and options on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange enhances the variety of the domestic futures market and provides significant changes for the propylene industry chain [1][3]. Industry Overview - Propylene is a crucial basic chemical product and the largest olefin variety in China, with a projected apparent consumption of 55.36 million tons and a market size of approximately 384.5 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - The propylene industry features active trade, convenient storage, and broad demand, which will be better supported by the new futures and options [3]. Market Dynamics - The listing of propylene futures and options will meet the diverse needs of various market participants, enhancing market liquidity [3]. - Upstream producers can lock in production profits through selling hedges, while downstream companies can secure low raw material prices through buying hedges [3]. Risk Management - The new financial instruments will provide richer risk management tools for industry chain enterprises, enhancing resilience and supporting high-quality development [3][4]. - The introduction of these products is expected to improve the health of the national propylene industry chain by offering effective inventory valuation and processing range hedging tools [4]. International Trade - Domestic propylene companies are actively expanding into overseas markets, but they often rely on less representative and transparent foreign pricing sources [4]. - The new futures and options are anticipated to enhance the international influence of Chinese propylene prices, thereby improving trade efficiency for domestic enterprises [4]. Tool Diversification - The availability of both futures and options allows for more refined risk management, catering to the diverse and personalized needs of enterprises [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The theme of the chemical sector recently is the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years, with the capacity of such plants for pure benzene and styrene accounting for 18% and 8% respectively, and subsequent progress should be monitored [3] - BZ futures still maintain a certain premium, there is still pressure on pure benzene port inventory during the same period. The short - term demand of BZ downstream is okay, but the high - start CPL and styrene start to decline. In terms of supply, the pressure of South Korea's exports to China remains, and domestic production start is still high, with the pure benzene processing fee continuing to consolidate weakly [3] - For styrene, port inventory is rising rapidly. Although domestic EB start has declined slightly, it is still at a relatively high level. In terms of demand, EPS start has rebounded, but the inventory pressure of the three major hard rubbers persists, which may drag down subsequent start [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Figures include pure benzene's main basis and main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts; EB's main contract trend & basis, main contract basis, and spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts [8][11][14] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures involve naphtha processing fee, difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, non - integrated production profit of styrene, differences between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and FOB South Korea, FOB US Gulf and CFR China, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China, and import profits of pure benzene and styrene [19][21][31] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show pure benzene's East China port inventory and operating rate; styrene's East China port inventory, operating rate, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory [38][40][43] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Figures cover EPS operating rate and production profit, PS operating rate and production profit, ABS operating rate and production profit [51][55][56] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Figures include operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 conventional spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [59][71][82] Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards pure benzene, and short - hedge styrene on rallies [4] - Basis and Inter - Period: Do reverse spreads on the near - term BZ paper cargo against the distant BZ2603 futures on rallies; do reverse spreads on the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period [4] - Cross - Variety: Shrink the EB - BZ spread on rallies [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View - The price of EG rebounded due to macro - sentiment boost. The closing price of the EG main contract was 4410 yuan/ton (+34 yuan/ton, +0.78% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4467 yuan/ton (+38 yuan/ton, +0.86% compared to the previous trading day). The news of the upcoming stable - growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals boosted the market, but the proportion of EG's backward production capacity over 20 years old is only 6.6%, and most are in a shutdown or low - load operation state, so the increase is relatively limited [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 53 US dollars/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and that of coal - based syngas - to - EG was 47 yuan/ton (- 13 yuan/ton compared to the previous period) [1]. - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 53.3 tons (- 2.0 tons compared to the previous period); according to Longzhong data, it was 49.4 tons (+1.3 tons compared to the previous period). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 5.2 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 15.7 tons, and the visible inventory is expected to moderately increase early next week [2]. - In terms of the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, on the supply side, the domestic syngas - to - ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level, and there are more unplanned load reductions in non - coal sectors, with limited room for further improvement. Overseas supply recovery is not as expected. On the demand side, the terminal inventory is high in the off - season, and the stocking willingness is low, with a weak demand expectation. The actual decline space may be limited. The supply - demand structure in July is still benign, but the arrival pressure of foreign ships will moderately increase in late July [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4410 yuan/ton (+34 yuan/ton, +0.78% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4467 yuan/ton (+38 yuan/ton, +0.86% compared to the previous trading day). The East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton (+3 yuan/ton compared to the previous period) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 53 US dollars/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and that of coal - based syngas - to - EG was 47 yuan/ton (- 13 yuan/ton compared to the previous period) [1]. International Spread - The international spread of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR) is presented in the report, but no specific data is given [19]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The report mentions downstream indicators such as filament sales, staple fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, and polyester bottle chip load, but no specific data is provided [20][22][24]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 53.3 tons (- 2.0 tons compared to the previous period); according to Longzhong data, it was 49.4 tons (+1.3 tons compared to the previous period). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 5.2 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 15.7 tons, and the visible inventory is expected to moderately increase early next week [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different commodities and financial products affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. Different investment strategies are recommended for different products based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [1][2][3] Commodity Summaries Energy - **Crude Oil**: EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia tightens price limits, but impact on supply is uncertain. In July, trade - war risks are greater than geopolitical benefits, and oil prices may turn to a volatile and pressured trend [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - low sulfur spread continues to decline. The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia boosts FU, while LU follows crude oil, but its increase has been less than SC since mid - July [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas markets are weak, but domestic PDH demand is strong. With weak supply and demand, domestic gas may stabilize, and the market is expected to be in low - level oscillation [23] - **Urea**: Affected by policy news, the market is bullish. Production enterprises are de - stocking, and supply is sufficient. With expected growth in industrial demand and export progress, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and bullish [24] - **Methanol**: Boosted by policy, it is bullish at night. Import arrivals increase, and ports are rapidly stocking. Some enterprises may postpone maintenance, and attention should be paid to macro - level impacts [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The macro - sentiment is positive, but the upward drive for gold is limited. With high uncertainty before the US tariff policy deadline and a weakening dollar outlook, precious metals are in wide - range oscillation, and the gold - silver ratio has room to decline [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices continued to rise. Social inventories decreased rapidly over the weekend. Resistance at the upper integer level is strong, and the 2508 option portfolio should be held until expiration this week [3] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed non - ferrous metals in a strong and oscillating trend. Aluminum ingot inventories increased, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with resistance around 21,000 yuan [4] - **Alumina**: Overnight, it remained strong. With low warehouse receipts and high industry operating rates, after a sharp increase driven by policy expectations, there is a risk of correction [5] - **Zinc**: Driven by the "anti - involution" policy, zinc prices broke through the bottom consolidation. However, with increasing supply pressure, attention should be paid to downstream acceptance and the entry of hedging positions [7] - **Lead**: Primary lead smelters are reducing production, and the cost support is strong. In the context of weak supply and demand, it is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded significantly. With weakening upstream price support and high overall inventory, it is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short - selling opportunities should be awaited [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices oscillated at a high level. With a decrease in imports from Congo and an increase from Myanmar, it is recommended to hold or increase short positions in far - month contracts [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillated and rose. With increasing total inventory and a rebound in Australian ore prices, the upward space is limited, and short - sellers should manage their positions [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by an accident in the organic silicon supply, prices rose significantly. With increasing demand and limited supply, it is expected to oscillate and strengthen [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price strengthened. With cost transfer and limited terminal demand acceptance, short - term observation is recommended [13] Ferrous Metals - **Steel Products** - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - trading steel prices oscillated narrowly. Rebar demand declined, and hot - rolled coil demand was resilient. With low inventory and positive market sentiment, the market is expected to remain strong [14] - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures price oscillated. With increasing global shipments and high iron - making production, it is expected to be strong in the short term [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Prices continued to rise. With sufficient carbon supply and high iron - making production, they are expected to follow steel prices and remain strong in the short term [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon prices adjusted slightly after a high opening. With decreasing inventory and increasing demand expectations, it follows rebar prices. Ferrosilicon prices opened high, with overall good demand and a slight increase in supply, also following rebar prices [18][19] Chemicals - **Pure Benzene**: Night - trading prices oscillated. With a slight increase in domestic production and a decrease in port inventory, it is recommended to operate in monthly spreads, with a positive spread strategy in the short - to - medium term and a negative spread in the fourth quarter [26] - **Styrene**: Driven by macro - news, the trading sentiment improved. With expected increases in both supply and demand and continued inventory accumulation, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short term [27] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Driven by the macro - environment, the market sentiment improved slightly, but the fundamentals are weak. In the consumption off - season, downstream procurement is cautious, and there is pressure to destock [27] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Affected by the policy of eliminating backward production capacity, PVC showed a strong trend. Caustic soda was also strong under macro - influence. Attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity - elimination policies [28] - **PX & PTA**: Night - trading prices oscillated. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and demand dragged down PX. The processing margin of PTA has room for repair [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: With limited policy impact and weak downstream demand, it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy in the short term, paying attention to the previous high - point pressure [30] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: They followed PTA and closed with a doji. Short - fiber is expected to be long - positioned in the medium term, while bottle - grade chip has limited profit - repair drivers due to over - capacity [31] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybean优良率decreased slightly, and with uncertainties in trade and weather, soybean meal is expected to oscillate before the situation becomes clear [35] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Affected by weather, policy, and supply - demand factors, a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended, with short - term attention to weather and policy guidance [36] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: With potential changes in import trade and seasonal demand, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - **Corn**: US corn auction results were poor, and Dalian corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom [39] - **Livestock and Poultry** - **Hogs**: Affected by policies, the futures price rose significantly. However, with sufficient future supply, industrial players can participate in short - hedging at high prices [40] - **Eggs**: Small - egg prices decreased, while large - egg prices increased. The spot price is in a seasonal rebound, and the futures market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [41] - **Others** - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Chinese cotton prices corrected. With tight supply and potential short - squeeze, it is recommended to wait and see [42] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices oscillated, and domestic sugar sales are fast with low inventory. Considering weather and production uncertainties, sugar prices are expected to oscillate [43] - **Apples**: Futures prices oscillated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and attention should be paid to price changes and new - season yield estimates [44] - **Wood**: Futures prices rebounded. With low - level spot prices, low port arrivals, and inventory, but weak domestic demand, it is recommended to wait and see [45] - **Pulp**: Prices continued to rise. With high port inventory and weak demand, it is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [46] Financial Products Summaries Stock Index - The stock market opened higher and continued to rise. The futures index contracts all closed up, with IC leading the gain. The market risk preference is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short term, and technology - growth stocks are recommended for additional allocation [47] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures closed with oscillation. The central bank's policy may inject implicit liquidity, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Propylene futures, as the first monomer variety listed in the domestic energy - chemical industry chain, play an important role in hedging in the energy - chemical industry chain. Analyzing the delivery characteristics of East China, North China, and South China is crucial for establishing the pricing center of propylene [1][6]. - In terms of supply, from 2019 - 2024, domestic new propylene production capacity increased by 3043 million tons, with a total capacity growth of 75% and an average annual compound growth rate of 12%. As of 2024, the total domestic propylene production capacity reached 69.73 million tons, and the annual output reached 53.4 million tons. From 2025 - 2027, propylene production capacity will still be in a period of rapid release, mainly from PDH and cracking - made propylene [20]. - Regarding demand, the downstream derivatives of propylene have entered an over - capacity phase in the past three years, leading to losses in the downstream derivatives of propylene [32]. - Strategies recommended on the first listing day of propylene futures include: (1) Buying propylene 02 and shorting PP01; (2) Conducting a 1 - 2 short - spread on propylene; (3) Buying propylene 02 and shorting plastic 09 [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Contract Interpretation - **Trading Contract Interpretation**: On July 22, propylene futures and option contracts will be listed on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. The trading unit of propylene futures is 20 tons per lot, and the contract has a flexible delivery matching system, including futures - to - spot, warehouse standard warrant delivery, and factory warehouse standard warrant delivery. It also has a position - limit system [7][8][9]. - **Delivery Product Premium and Discount Analysis**: The benchmark delivery product of propylene futures is Type I propylene that meets relevant national standards, with a water content ≤ 20mg/kg. Alternative delivery products with a water content of 20mg/kg < water content ≤ 50mg/kg are subject to a discount of 50 yuan/ton. Most propylene from different production processes meets the water - content requirements of the benchmark delivery product, while FCC propylene generally meets the requirements of alternative delivery products [9][13]. - **Regional Premium and Discount Analysis**: Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Shandong have a premium and discount of 0 yuan/ton; Fujian and Guangdong have a discount of 100 yuan/ton; Tianjin has a discount of 120 yuan/ton; Hebei has a discount of 160 yuan/ton; and Liaoning has a discount of 300 yuan/ton. Short - distance transportation within the region is common, and cross - regional transportation has high costs, which will bring additional selling pressure during the cancellation month [2][14][15]. - **Delivery Warehouse Analysis**: A total of 15 delivery warehouses are announced, including 2 delivery warehouses and 13 delivery factory warehouses. The storage fees for delivery warehouses and delivery factory warehouses are 5 yuan/ton/day and 4 yuan/ton/day respectively [16]. 3.2 Propylene Fundamental Analysis - **Propylene Supply**: From 2019 - 2024, domestic new propylene production capacity increased significantly, but the effective operating rate has been declining year by year. From 2025 - 2027, production capacity will continue to be released, and propylene pricing follows a cost - based logic [20][24]. - **Propylene Demand**: Downstream derivatives of propylene are in an over - capacity situation, leading to losses. In terms of downstream pricing influence, polypropylene powder has the largest proportion in the circulation and external procurement demand, and the marginal changes in propylene demand can be tracked by focusing on the price influence of polypropylene powder on propylene and the regional external procurement demand of propylene oxide and acrylic acid [32][35]. - **Propylene Balance Sheet**: The national balance sheet explores the structural contradictions of propylene, but it is difficult to observe structural contradictions on a monthly basis. The balance sheet of Shandong, the mainstream trading area, has a direct guiding significance for the market, and it can be used to characterize the relaxation or tightening of the dynamic supply and demand in Shandong [36][38]. 3.3 Propylene Strategy on the First Listing Day - **Propylene Logic Chain**: There are four types of propylene logics, including the monomer strength - weakness logic, the PO/SM logic of propylene oxide, the profit logic of acrylonitrile for ABS, and the marginal pricing effect of acrylonitrile and butanol - octanol on methanol [43]. - **Arbitrage Strategies** - **Industrial Chain Profit Fluctuation**: The loss - tolerance of the polypropylene powder industry has decreased, and the adjustment flexibility of downstream loads has increased. The recommended strategy is to buy 02 propylene and short 01PP, and if the opening price reaches the expected level, consider buying 01PP and shorting 01 propylene [47][48]. - **Spread + Domestic - Foreign Arbitrage - PX Variant**: The spread of propylene mainly reflects the delivery friction cost and holding cost. It is recommended to conduct a short - spread on propylene 1 - 2 when the spread is high [49][51]. - **Extension of Monomer Olefin Hedging**: After the listing of propylene, it can provide more arbitrage options. It is recommended to expand the spread between PP and plastic, and buy propylene 02 and short plastic 09 [52][53]. - **Intuitive Expression of Aromatic - Olefin Logic**: With the listing of propylene, the strategy expression of aromatic - olefin can more intuitively reflect the strength and weakness between aromatics and olefins [54].

Group 1 - The price of TDI (Toluene Diisocyanate) has been continuously rising, with a recent average price of 15,900 CNY/ton, marking an increase of 1,012 CNY/ton or 6.79% from the previous working day [1] - The recent surge in TDI prices is attributed to a significant reduction in global production capacity due to an accident at Covestro's facility in Germany, which has affected the supply of TDI and related chemicals [1] - TDI prices have increased by over 3,900 CNY per ton this month, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 23% and a year-on-year increase of about 20% [1] Group 2 - The Asian region is currently in a maintenance season, with multiple production facilities undergoing repairs, leading to a severe tightening of global TDI supply [2] - Wanhua Chemical, the largest global supplier of MDI and TDI, is expected to increase its TDI capacity to 1.44 million tons per year after the commissioning of a new project [2] - The recent supply disruptions and the upcoming peak demand season are expected to improve profitability for TDI producers, resulting in a rapid increase in stock prices for related companies [2] Group 3 - As of July 21, Wanhua Chemical's stock has risen nearly 10% over the past three trading days, while Cangzhou Dahua and Hualu Hengsheng have seen increases of approximately 29% and 10%, respectively [3] - Analysts believe that the reduction in overseas supply, combined with the peak demand season and domestic maintenance, will enhance TDI market conditions [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is encouraging factories to maintain price increases, leading to a strong upward trend in market pricing [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market has limited supply - demand contradictions, with high - profit incentives for high production. There is a good price upward expectation in the peak season. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and wait and see. The PVC market has a weak supply - demand situation, with inventory accumulation pressure. It is advisable to wait and see due to policy and information fluctuations [23]. - **Urea**: The core driver of the urea futures market is the change in demand, especially the weakening of agricultural demand. The supply - side surplus pressure and high inventory also affect the market. The new round of Indian tender provides short - term benefits, but the suspension of small - particle bulk exports suppresses market sentiment [27]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: In July, the PX supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to operate PX09 in the 6600 - 6900 range. The PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to operate TA in the 4600 - 4800 range. The short - term supply - demand of ethylene glycol is expected to improve, and it is recommended to sell put options EG2509 - P - 4300 at low prices. The short - fiber market has a weak supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to operate PFO9 in the 6300 - 6500 range. The bottle - chip supply - demand has an improvement expectation, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing fee in the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [30]. - **Methanol**: Inland methanol prices fluctuate slightly. The port basis strengthens, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation from July to August, with weak prices [34]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The pure benzene supply - demand is generally good, but the rebound space is limited. The styrene supply - demand is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to operate EB09 in the 7100 - 7500 range [37]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply and demand of PP and PE contract synchronously, with inventory accumulation and weak demand. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities for PP and buy PE within a range [41]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices are in a stalemate between bulls and bears. Diesel shortages support prices, but factors such as sanctions, tariffs, and supply increases limit the upward space. The support ranges for WTI, Brent, and SC are [65, 66], [67, 68], and [504, 514] respectively [44]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: For PVC, the prices of various futures contracts and spot markets have small fluctuations. For caustic soda, the prices of some products are stable, and the export price and profit of some products have changed [19][20]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate has increased, while the PVC total operating rate has decreased slightly. The profits of different production methods of PVC have changed [21]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed, and the PVC pre - sales volume has increased slightly [22][23]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC has changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [23]. Urea - **Prices**: The prices of urea futures contracts, spot markets, and related products have changed, and the basis and spread have also changed [27]. - **Supply**: The daily and weekly production of urea has changed slightly, and the number of maintenance losses has increased [27]. - **Demand**: The agricultural demand for urea is weak, and the industrial demand is restricted by high temperatures [27]. - **Inventory**: The factory and port inventories of urea have changed, with the factory inventory decreasing and the port inventory increasing [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: The prices of various products in the polyester industry chain, including crude oil, PX, PTA, and polyester products, have changed, and the spreads and processing fees have also changed [30]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products have changed [30]. - **Demand**: The demand for polyester products is weak, and the downstream industries' operating rates have changed [30]. Methanol - **Prices**: The prices of methanol futures contracts and spot markets have changed, and the basis and spread have also changed [34]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise, port, and social inventories of methanol have changed [34]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream enterprises of methanol have changed [34]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products have changed, and the spreads and import profits have also changed [37]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have changed [37]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries have changed [37]. Polyolefins - **Prices**: The prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts and spot markets have changed, and the basis and spread have also changed [41]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP have changed [41]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PE and PP production and downstream industries have changed [41]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: The prices of crude oil futures contracts and refined oil products have changed, and the spreads and crack spreads have also changed [44]. - **Market Factors**: Diesel shortages support oil prices, but sanctions, tariffs, and supply increases affect the market [44].