Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.79% at 3844.84 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.21% at 12545.82 points, and the ChiNext Index down 2.9% at 2870.72 points [2][3] - Nearly 4500 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fell, while only 858 stocks saw an increase [2] Sector Performance - The consumer electronics, computing power, military industry, and information technology sectors led the declines, while the precious metals sector continued to rise [2] - Precious metals increased by 2.05%, with banking and electric power stocks also showing positive performance [4] Trading Volume - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan for the 21st consecutive trading day [8] Notable Stocks - Guizhou Moutai's stock price rose over 2%, reaching 1500 yuan per share, marking a new high since May [12] - The innovative drug concept stocks saw significant gains, with companies like BeiGene and Amgen rising over 10% [12] International Market Influence - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell over 1%, with Huahong Semiconductor leading the decline among component stocks [5]

2025.09. 02 11:31 A股午盘｜创业板指跌2.9% 消费电子、算力板块领跌 上证指数报3844.84点，跌0.79%，深成指报12545.82点，跌2.21%，创业板指报2870.72点，跌 2.9%。消费电子、CPO、算力、军工、信创等板块跌幅居前；贵金属板块延续涨势，银行、电力股 表现活跃。沪深京三市下跌个股近4500只，仅858只个股上涨。 | | A股重要指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 涨幅 | | 上证指数 | 3844.84 | -30.69 | -0.79% | | 深证成指 | 12545.82 | -283.13 | -2.21% | | 北证50 | 1548.54 | -20.09 | -1.28% | | 创业板指 | 2870.72 | -85.65 | -2.90% | | 板块名称 | 涨幅量 | 板块名称 | 涨幅◆ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵金属 | +2.05% | 通信设备 | -5.53% | | 银行 | +1.22% | 元件 | -5.47% ...

Core Insights - The overall performance of Sichuan A-share listed companies in the first half of 2025 is strong, with 179 companies reporting a total net profit of 56.37 billion yuan, and over 77% of these companies achieving profitability [1][4]. Financial Performance - Wuliangye (000858.SZ) leads with a net profit of 19.49 billion yuan, followed by Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) with 7.66 billion yuan [1]. - Sichuan Changhong (600839.SH) tops the revenue chart with 56.71 billion yuan in operating income, showcasing its strong revenue-generating capability [1]. - Shudao Equipment (300540.SZ) exhibits an extraordinary net profit growth rate of 5972.30%, attributed to enhanced external business development, with a revenue of 205 million yuan, up 35.24% year-on-year [1]. Key Players - Chengdu Bank (601838.SH) ranks third in net profit with 6.62 billion yuan, highlighting the significant role of state-owned enterprises in Sichuan's economy [1]. - Other companies like Xinyi Technology (300502.SZ), Sichuan Road and Bridge (600039.SH), and others also reported net profits exceeding 1 billion yuan, forming the first tier of profitable Sichuan enterprises [2]. Earnings Per Share - Luzhou Laojiao leads in earnings per share at 5.21 yuan, followed closely by Wuliangye at 5.02 yuan and Xinyi Technology at 3.97 yuan, indicating strong returns for investors [2]. Challenges - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) reported a net loss of 4.96 billion yuan, a decline of 58.35% year-on-year, primarily due to falling prices in the photovoltaic industry [4]. - Despite some companies facing challenges, the overall performance of Sichuan A-share listed companies remains robust, contributing positively to the local economy and providing investment opportunities [4].

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao has reported its first decline in both revenue and net profit in nearly a decade, marking a significant turning point for the company [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Luzhou Laojiao achieved revenue of 16.454 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.67% compared to the same period last year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 4.54% to 7.663 billion yuan, with a non-recurring profit of 7.650 billion yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year [1]. - Earnings per share decreased by 4.58% to 5.21 yuan, and the net operating cash flow was 6.065 billion yuan, down 26.27% year-on-year [1]. - The second quarter saw revenue and net profit drop to 7.102 billion yuan and 3.070 billion yuan, respectively, representing declines of 7.97% and 11.1% year-on-year [1]. Market Analysis - Analysts from 12 brokerages expressed a generally pessimistic outlook on Luzhou Laojiao, with Shenwan Hongyuan Securities lowering its net profit forecast for the next three years, predicting a reduction from 13.53 billion yuan to 11.79 billion yuan for 2025, a decline of 11.13% [2]. - The company attributed its performance decline to industry-wide factors, including a transformation in consumption structure and intensified competition in the liquor market [2]. Product Structure - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and other categories declined, with mid-to-high-end liquor generating 15.048 billion yuan, down 1.09%, and other liquor generating 1.35 billion yuan, down 16.96% [5]. - Sales volume for mid-to-high-end liquor increased by 13.33%, while other liquor products saw a decline of 6.89% [5]. - The average price per ton for mid-to-high-end liquor fell by 12.72% to 623,900 yuan, and for other liquor, it decreased by 10.82% to 54,400 yuan [5]. Marketing and Sales Strategy - Luzhou Laojiao has adjusted its marketing expenses, reducing online, offline, and television advertising while increasing promotional expenses by 11.2% [5]. - The company is focusing on maintaining sales through promotions despite rising logistics and labor costs [5]. Innovation and Product Development - In response to consumer demand for lower-alcohol, healthier, and diversified products, Luzhou Laojiao is innovating and developing new drinking methods, including the 28-degree Guojiao 1573 [6]. - The company plans to shift resources towards mainstream mid-to-high-end products and is actively entering the high-growth light bottle liquor segment [6].

证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 128.87 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）38.82 | / 38.81 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）5,002 | / 5,002 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 164.05 / 107.69 | | 资产负债率(%) | 27.5% | | 市盈率 | 15.70 | | 第一大股东 | 宜宾发展控股集团有限 | | 公司 | | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 预计公司 2025-2027 年实现营收 901.51/939.63/1006.81 亿元， 同 比 增 长 1.09%/4.23%/7.15% ； 实 现 归 母 净 利 润 315.08/329.13/357.03 亿元，同比增长-1.08%/4.46%/8.48%，对应 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 ...

Group 1 - A-shares opened lower on September 2, 2025, with the three major indices showing volatility, while the industrial mother machine concept stocks strengthened following the issuance of a high-quality standard system construction plan by two departments [1] - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached a historical high of 22,896.58 billion yuan, surpassing the previous peak of 22.7 billion yuan in 2015, with a financing balance of 22,734.96 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 161.62 billion yuan [1] - Huaxi Securities indicated that the recent increase in margin trading reflects investors' optimistic attitude towards the market, driven by overall market uptrend and heightened trading enthusiasm [1] Group 2 - The focus for medium to long-term investments includes three main lines: the "anti-involution" concept driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and industry profit recovery, undervalued dividend assets, and the consumer sector supported by policy [2] - The technology self-reliance direction includes sectors such as AI, robotics, semiconductors, and military industry, benefiting from the rapid development of domestic high-tech industries [2] - The A500 ETF leader (563800) provides a balanced allocation of quality leading companies across various industries, facilitating investment in core A-share assets [3]

这在当下的行业语境中尤为难能可贵，也清晰传递出"行业承压"与"头部企业韧性"的双重信号：一方面印证了白酒行业深度调整的严峻现实，另一方面也凸 显出山西汾酒凭借产品矩阵与市场布局，在行业困境中依然具备稳定增长的能力。 总的来说，白酒战场已从高歌猛进的"顺风局"，全面转入更为考验实力的"逆风局"。而汾酒，正凭借其长期构建的战略格局，"大风卷来如如不动"，在这 场"压力测试"中展现出难得的定力。 正如前不久，华泰证券指出，在此轮调整中，头部酒企均以长期健康发展为主，基本面筑底企稳，叠加促销费政策托底，行业正逐步进入良性修复阶段。如 今，汾酒的答卷就是最佳例证。 从"加速度"到稳增长：汾酒展现出抗风险能力 2025年，一场由政策调控、消费转型、存量竞争"三期叠加"的行业变革正笼罩白酒产业，整体行业发展承压显著。截至目前，已披露半年报的白酒上市公司 中，多数企业营收同比下降，部分企业降幅甚至高达两位数。在当前上市酒企整体表现疲软的情况下，能维持个位数增长已实属不易。 9月1日，距离2025年中秋节还有不到40天。记者从济南部分烟酒店了解到，"不进货清库存、少备货降库存"成为大多数。而在商家的备货清单里，汾酒成为 必选之 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for leading companies in the liquor sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, while suggesting a hold for Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhuijiu [10][9]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant clearing phase due to the impact of the "ban on alcohol" policy, with second and third-tier companies facing substantial challenges, while leading firms show resilience [1][9]. - The report anticipates that the financial statements of leading liquor companies will signal an industry turning point, potentially reshaping market expectations and indicating a gradual emergence of the industry bottom [9][1]. - The demand for liquor is expected to continue recovering, driven by a positive price index in 2026, which may lead to inflation and increased corporate profitability [1][9]. Revenue and Net Profit - In Q2 2025, the liquor industry reported revenues of 881 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%, and a net profit of 312 billion yuan, down 7.5% [2][13]. - For the first half of 2025, the industry generated revenues of 2,415 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.9% in revenue and 1.2% in net profit [2][13]. - Excluding Moutai, the industry's revenue in Q2 2025 was 484 billion yuan, reflecting a more significant decline of 13.1% [2][13]. Profitability - The overall gross margin of the liquor sector is under pressure due to declining prices and structural changes, with high-end liquor experiencing a slight decrease in gross margin [4][28]. - Many companies have increased their expense ratios to cope with price declines and intensified competition, although some have managed to reduce costs through digitalization and refined channel management [4][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong leading companies and those that have cleared their market burdens first, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao, while also monitoring companies like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhuijiu for potential growth contributions in the second half of 2025 [9][10]. - The anticipated recovery in liquor demand and the potential for improved profitability in 2026 present a favorable investment landscape for the sector [9][1].

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu has demonstrated resilience in a challenging white liquor industry, achieving revenue growth amidst overall market contraction [1][4][12] Industry Overview - The white liquor industry is undergoing significant adjustments, with a pronounced differentiation among companies; leading brands maintain their market positions while smaller firms face sales pressures [3][12] - The overall performance of listed liquor companies has been weak, with many reporting revenue declines, and the industry is experiencing a shift in consumer behavior [3][4] Company Performance - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue of 23.964 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.35%, and a net profit of 8.505 billion yuan, up 1.13% [1][4] - The company's return on equity (ROE) stands at 24.09%, leading the industry and surpassing Kweichow Moutai by 5 percentage points [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company has adopted a clear high-end branding strategy and a rapid national market expansion, which has contributed to its sustained growth [6][12] - Shanxi Fenjiu's product strategy focuses on enhancing its premium offerings, particularly the Qinghua Fenjiu series, which has shown strong sales performance [8][10] Market Positioning - The company has successfully transitioned from a regional brand to a national brand, with revenue from provincial markets growing by 4.04% and from outside the province by 6.15% [12] - Shanxi Fenjiu's commitment to long-term strategies, including increased R&D investment, positions it well for future growth despite current industry pressures [12] Research and Development - The company has increased its R&D expenditure to 75.1792 million yuan, a rise of 36.43%, indicating a focus on quality improvement and product innovation [10] - Shanxi Fenjiu has achieved several technological advancements, with five out of six research outcomes reaching international leading standards [10]

盈利能力小幅下探，渠道回款有所减弱。25H1/25Q2 毛利率同比-1.5pct/-1.0pct ， 主因其他酒毛利率下 滑较多（ 25H1 同比-10.6pct ） 。25Q2 销售/ 管理/ 期间费用率同比-1.2pct/-0.3pct/-2.5pct，费用率下调 或系报告期内广宣费用收缩所致。25H1/25Q2归母净利率同比-0.9pct/-1.5pct，除毛利率影响外，25Q2 税金及附加率同比+3.7pct 亦对净利率有所拖累。回款方面：25Q2 末合同负债为35.3 亿元，环比+4.6 亿 元；同期销售收现80.8 亿元，同比-15.1%；25Q2 末应收款项融资余额环比小幅提升，反映终端动销疲 软及回款效率下降。 25 年以稳价盘为核心，蓄势攻坚顺势而为。25 年公司战略规划聚焦价盘稳定、市场扩张与品牌升级。 以"蓄势攻坚、精耕细作稳增长；顺势而为，改革创新谋发展"为年度主题，强化穿越行业周期的韧性。 巩固国窖1573 在高端市场的领先地位，实现全系列产品价格带稳定，对电商平台违规降价零容忍。 盈利预测与投资建议：白酒行业面临消费分级与库存压力，公司作为头部酒企将稳价作为核心命题， Q2 主动降 ...