Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On Wednesday, palm oil prices broke through and rose, driven by the positive impact of the US biodiesel policy and the sharp rise in CBOT soybean oil. Peanut prices dropped significantly due to expected supply improvement and weak demand. The prices of two types of meal remained weak, and this trend may continue. Additionally, sugar, pork, soybean meal, eggs, and jujube prices were falling, while apples were in high - level adjustment and cotton had a technical rebound [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Palm oil broke through and rose due to the positive US biodiesel policy and the sharp rise in CBOT soybean oil [1]. - Peanut prices dropped significantly because of expected supply improvement and weak demand [1]. - The prices of two types of meal were weak, with the increase in oil mill crushing volume and weak downstream demand [1]. 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Palm Oil: Breakthrough and Uptrend - The US EPA proposed to set the 2026 biomass diesel blending target at 5.61 billion gallons, a 67% surge from 2025, which strongly supported soybean oil consumption and drove up palm oil prices. Malaysia's palm oil will enter the production - reduction season, and Indonesia will implement the B50 policy [2]. - The palm oil main contract 2601 broke through the recent sideways range and stood above the 20 - day moving average, suggesting an upward - opening space. The strategy is to go long with a light position on dips [2]. (2) Peanut: Sharp Decline - Due to busy farming and low temperatures, the supply of peanuts from Henan farmers was limited, but it is expected to increase after the farming season. The demand was generally low, with traders purchasing on - demand and oil mills not conducting large - scale acquisitions [3]. - The peanut main contract 2601 dropped significantly, breaking below the moving - average system and entering a downward trend. The strategy is to short with a light position at resistance levels [3]. (3) Sugar: Continuous Decline - Globally, Brazil's sugar production was strong, and the sugar production in the second half of October continued to grow. The harvest in the Northern Hemisphere's main producing countries started well, and India's sugar production increased year - on - year. In China, the import of sugar remained high, and the seasonal supply increased with the start of sugarcane crushing in Guangxi [7]. - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2601 continued to expand its downward space. The MACD formed a death cross and the green bars expanded. The strategy is to short with a light position [7]. (4) Pig: Narrow - Range Fluctuation at Low Level - The inventory of breeding sows was still higher than the normal level, and production efficiency improved, resulting in an over - capacity situation. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig enterprises in November remained high, and there was pressure from the release of additional supplies from secondary fattening. The demand during the traditional peak season did not meet expectations, and the cold - curing consumption was postponed due to the warm winter [8][10]. - The pig main contract 2601 fluctuated narrowly at a low level after a sharp decline, and the price continued to run below the moving - average system. The strategy is to short with a light position [10]. (5) Soybean Meal: Continuous Decline - The arrival of imported soybeans in China was sufficient, the oil mill operating rate increased to 66% this week, and the soybean crushing volume last week exceeded 2 million tons. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory was close to one million tons, and downstream feed enterprises' purchases were average [11]. - The soybean meal main contract 2601 continued to decline, testing the support of the 20 - day moving average. The strategy is to short with a light position [11]. (6) Apple: High - Level Adjustment - The cold - storage trading in the western apple - producing areas was basically stable, and the prices were flat. The demand for small apples in the Shandong producing area was active, and the prices were firm. The overall cold - storage inventory of apples was at a low level in recent years, and the supply of deliverable goods was expected to be tight [13]. - The apple main contract 2601 was in high - level adjustment, and the price was above the 10 - day moving average. The strategy is to hold long positions and pay attention to the support of the 10 - day moving average [13]. (7) Egg: Continuous Decline - The inventory of laying hens remained at a high level, resulting in sufficient supply. After Double 11, the sales of e - commerce and supermarkets declined, and the demand was weak. The elimination of old hens continued, but the growth rate of elimination slowed down, and the capacity reduction was slow [15]. - The egg main contract 2601 continued to decline, approaching the previous low. The MACD formed a death cross and the green bars expanded. The strategy is to short with a light position [15]. (8) Jujube: Limited Rebound, Low - Level Fluctuation - The main jujube - producing area in Xinjiang adhered to the principle of high - quality and high - price, but most enterprises were reluctant to make large - scale purchases. The inventory of old jujubes was slowly being digested, and the domestic sample - point inventory was much higher than that of last year. The market supply pressure was large, limiting the rebound space of jujube prices [18]. - The jujube main contract 2601 had a limited rebound and fluctuated at a low level. The short - term strategy is to short, paying attention to the resistance of the 10 - day moving average [18]. (9) Cotton: Technical Rebound - With the centralized listing of new cotton, the commercial inventory of cotton continued to grow, and the port inventory also increased with the arrival of foreign cotton. The textile industry was in the off - season, with weak domestic sales growth and limited new orders in the export market [19][21]. - The cotton main contract 2601 rebounded technically at a low level, driven by short - covering. The strategy is to close short positions and pay attention to the resistance of the medium - term moving average [21].

Group 1: Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: November 19, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The USDA's November monthly supply - demand report adjusted the production, crush, and supply - demand for 24/25 and 25/26 soybean years. The adjustment of the export item in the report indicates a lack of confidence in China's full - scale purchase of US soybeans, causing short - term adjustment in CBOT soybeans. Domestic soybean meal is affected by the decline of foreign markets. Its future trend depends on China's import data of US soybeans [6] Group 4: Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Contract Quotes**: The "Soybean Meal 2601" contract closed at 3041 yuan, down 10 yuan or 0.33% from the previous settlement; "Soybean Meal 2603" closed at 3008 yuan, up 8 yuan or 0.27%; "Soybean Meal 2605" closed at 2832 yuan, up 15 yuan or 0.53% [6] - **USDA Report**: The 24/25 ending stocks decreased from 330 million bushels to 316 million bushels. For the 25/26 year, the yield per acre was lowered from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels, and the export item was reduced by 0.5 bushels to 1.635 billion bushels. The ending stocks of 290 million bushels were higher than market expectations [6] - **China - US Trade Agreement**: China is required to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons annually for the next 3 years. However, the USDA's adjustment of the export item shows a lack of confidence in China's full - scale purchase [6] - **Market Outlook**: CBOT soybeans may have a short - term adjustment. Domestic soybean meal is affected by the decline of foreign markets. It may regain its upward trend if China's import of US soybeans improves; otherwise, it will return to the previous range - bound pattern [6] 2. Industry News - **US 2025/26 Soybean Data**: The yield per acre decreased from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels; the production decreased from 4.301 billion bushels to 4.253 billion bushels; the crush remained unchanged at 2.555 billion bushels; the export decreased from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels; the ending stocks decreased from 300 million bushels to 290 million bushels [7][8] - **Global 2025/26 Soybean Meal Data**: The production is expected to be 286.418 million tons, a decrease of 1.32 million tons from the previous estimate. The ending stocks are expected to be 18.271 million tons, an increase of 0.117 million tons. The export is expected to be 81.548 million tons, a decrease of 0.62 million tons. Argentina's export is expected to decrease by 1.1 million tons, while Brazil's is expected to increase by 0.8 million tons [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including soybean meal ex - factory price, 01 contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [14][16]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a peanut daily report dated November 19, 2025, from the Agricultural Products R & D Report of the Research Institute [1] Group 2: Data Summary Futures Market - PK604 closed at 7842, down 48 (-0.61%), with a trading volume of 32,575 (up 11.77%) and an open interest of 19,638 (down 6.20%) [2] - PK510 closed at 8150, down 18 (-0.22%), with a trading volume of 71 (up 73.17%) and an open interest of 645 (up 4.37%) [2] - PK601 closed at 7794, down 120 (-1.54%), with a trading volume of 104,040 (up 37.97%) and an open interest of 151,721 (down 9.60%) [2] Spot Market - Spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7200, 7600, and 7600 respectively, with no change [2] - Rizhao peanut meal was 3250, Rizhao soybean meal was 3000 (down 20), peanut oil was 14550, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8850 (up 350) [2] - Import prices: Sudanese peanuts were 8600, Senegalese peanuts were 7600, with no change [2] Spreads - PK01 - PK04 spread was - 48 (down 72), PK04 - PK10 spread was - 308 (down 30), and PK10 - PK01 spread was 356 (up 102) [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan declined, while those in the Northeast were strong. Northeast Jilin Fuyu 308 common peanuts were 4.45 yuan/jin, Liaoning Changtu was 4.5 yuan/jin, both stable. Henan Baisha common peanuts were 3.55 - 3.85 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. Shandong Junan was 3.5 yuan/jin, stable [4] - Imported peanut prices were stable. Sudanese refined peanuts were 8600 yuan/ton, Senegalese were 7600 yuan/ton, Brazilian new peanuts were 9200 yuan/ton, and Indian 50/60 peanuts were 8000 yuan/ton, all stable [4] - Peanut oil prices were stable. Mainstream purchase prices of peanut oil mills were 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton, with a theoretical break - even price of 7900 yuan/ton. Domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil was 14500 yuan/ton, and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was 16500 yuan/ton, both stable [4][6] - Rizhao soybean meal prices fell to 3000 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Peanut meal was relatively strong in the short - term, with 48 - protein peanut meal at 3210 yuan/ton [6] Group 4: Trading Strategies Unilateral - Peanuts in contracts 01 and 05 are in low - level oscillations. Short - sell contract 01 peanuts on rallies [8][9] Spread - Reverse spread for 1 - 5 contracts. Industrial players can try positive spread for 12 - 1 contracts [10] Options - Hold the short position of pk601 - P - 7600 [11] Group 5: Related Charts - The report includes charts on Shandong peanut spot prices, peanut oil mill profit, peanut oil prices, peanut spot - futures basis, 10 - 1 contract spread, and 1 - 4 contract spread [13][20][23]

| 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 农产品团队 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年11月18日星期二 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：周二，豆油主力01合约偏强走势，午后收于8320（日变动3 8或0.46%）。国际柴油价格走强带动马棕油上涨，进而带动连盘豆 油上涨。目前国内豆油库存虽然绝对量偏高但已经进入递减阶段， ...

2025年11月19日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期利空暂充分，关注产地去库进程 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆企稳，豆油偏强震荡 | 2 | | 豆粕：调整震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：新棉上市压力仍压制期价 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：近弱远强，反套格局 | 10 | | 生猪：降温涨价预期落空，压力逐步释放 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,708 | 涨跌幅 0.32% | 收盘价（夜盘） 8,846 | 涨跌幅 1.58% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 0.62% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,320 | 0.46% | 8,366 | 0.55% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,874 | -0.06% | 9,935 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [2][6][9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short term, cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may decline after cost solidification. In the long - term, due to low initial inventory and resilient consumption, the supply - demand situation won't be too loose, and cotton prices are expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure [2] - For sugar, in the short term, the support at around 5400 is strong, and it will fluctuate before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price may hit a new low next year [6] - Regarding pulp, the fundamental improvement is insufficient, and the continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [9] Group 3: Summary According to Cotton - Related Content Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,395 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,558 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1163, up 29 from the previous day. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 14,789 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1394, up 38 from the previous day [1] - In October 2025, China's cotton import volume was 90,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (10%) from September and 20,000 tons (15.6%) from the same period last year. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 770,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.4%. From September 2025 to August 2026, the cumulative cotton imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.4% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA November report significantly increased the US cotton production. The global cotton production, consumption, and ending stocks in the 2025/26 season all increased compared to September, with a bearish adjustment. After the data release, the US cotton futures price fell. With the new cotton concentratedly listed in the Northern Hemisphere, the supply pressure is still being released, and the global textile terminal consumption is weak, so the short - term external market is expected to be under pressure [2] - Domestically, since the National Day holiday, as the harvesting progress accelerated, the market's expectation of new cotton production declined, and the purchase price of seed cotton gradually stabilized and rebounded, supporting the previous upward trend of the futures price. However, the new cotton is still expected to increase in production overall, and the downstream "Golden September and Silver October" peak season was not prosperous, with limited order increments mainly in small and short orders. Now in the off - season of the textile industry, textile enterprises purchase cotton raw materials as needed, and the demand support is insufficient [2] Group 4: Summary According to Sugar - Related Content Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5407 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton (-0.93%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5600 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR01 + 193, up 21 from the previous day [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts that the global sugar market will have a surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 season. The sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% year - on - year to 181.77 million tons, while the consumption will only increase by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. The global sugar market had a supply - demand gap of 2.92 million tons in the 2024/25 season [3] Market Analysis - For raw sugar, Brazil's supply remains strong, and the production outlook for the next season is optimistic. India's sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to rebound significantly, and the export expectation increases. Thailand's sugar production is also expected to increase, and the global bumper harvest pattern suppresses the futures price. However, India's exports are still difficult to increase in the short term, and the supply pressure in the later stage of Brazil's sugar - crushing season is gradually weakening, so the short - term decline space of raw sugar may be limited. In the long - term, the surplus pattern restricts the rebound momentum of raw sugar, and it is difficult to break away from the low - level oscillation range [4] - For Zhengzhou sugar, the domestic sugar production in the new season is still expected to increase strongly. However, the current price has fallen to near the sugar - making cost line, and sugar mills have the intention to support the price at the beginning of the season. Coupled with the stricter control policy on syrup, it provides short - term support for sugar prices, and the decline space of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be limited [4] Group 5: Summary According to Pulp - Related Content Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract yesterday was 5408 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton (-1.21%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP01 + 142, up 66 from the previous day. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5125 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP01 - 283, up 66 from the previous day [7] - Yesterday, the spot prices of imported wood pulp mostly stabilized, with some pulp varieties showing a weak trend. The price of the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange weakened. The shipment of imported softwood pulp by traders was still slow, and the prices of some grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The imported hardwood pulp market traders continued to hold prices, and downstream enterprises mostly purchased on a just - in - time basis. The trading in the imported natural pulp and imported chemimechanical pulp markets had no obvious fluctuations, and the prices were stable [7] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, the European pulp port inventory decreased in September but remained at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The de - stocking speed of domestic ports was lower than expected, and the port inventory remained high for a long time, so the supply - loose pattern has not changed substantially [8] - In terms of demand, the pulp consumption in Europe and the United States remained weak, and the inventory pressure of global pulp mills gradually emerged. Weak domestic demand is the core factor suppressing pulp prices. Although a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation this year, the terminal effective demand was always insufficient, the paper was in a surplus state, the paper mill operating rate declined, and the overall output of finished paper did not increase significantly. The over - capacity in the paper sector led to continuous contraction of industry profits. Now in the traditional peak season of the industry, downstream paper mills are cautious in purchasing raw materials and have not carried out large - scale stockpiling [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is in a stage of game between cost - driven factors and industrial chain pressure. For soybean meal, there is a divergence between domestic and foreign markets, with a pattern of strong foreign and weak domestic prices. For soybean oil, it is affected by raw material costs and external market prices, and the high inventory is the main resistance to price increases. For palm oil, it is in a stage of bottom - building with limited rebound space [5][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weakly oscillating; Reference view: weakly oscillating [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The US soybean futures price is supported by strong crushing and good export expectations, providing cost support for domestic imported soybeans. However, the abundant domestic soybean arrivals and high inventory of soybean meal in oil mills suppress the basis to be continuously negative. Short - term attention should be paid to South American weather and domestic inventory reduction rhythm [5] Soybean Oil (Y) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strongly oscillating; Reference view: strongly oscillating [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The soybean oil market is affected by the cost change of raw material soybeans and the price of US soybean oil in the external market. The domestic supply is very loose, with high inventory (up to nearly 1.2 million tons) and weak terminal consumption, resulting in light spot market transactions. Before there are obvious signals of supply - demand change, the price is expected to oscillate strongly within the current range [7] Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strongly oscillating; Reference view: strongly oscillating [6][8] - **Core Logic**: The BMD crude palm oil rebounds from a low level, but the increase in Malaysian production and sluggish exports in November are the main drags. The domestic palm oil inventory continues to accumulate, and the futures price is in a stage of bottom - building, with limited rebound space [8]

新华财经纽约11月18日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价18日涨跌不一。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳4.4850美元，比前一交易日上涨0.50美分，涨 幅为0.11%；小麦2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳5.5900美元，比前一交易日上涨0.50美分，涨幅为 0.09%；大豆2026年1月合约收于每蒲式耳11.5050美元，比前一交易日下跌6.75美分，跌幅为0.58%。 美国农业部18日发布的数据显示，美国玉米收割率已达91%，比去年同期下降7%，五年平均水平为 94%。这意味着仍有高达15亿蒲式耳的玉米尚未收割。美国大豆收割率达95%，低于去年同期的98%和 96%的五年平均水平。目前仍有2.1亿蒲式耳大豆待收割。美国冬小麦播种率达92%，低于去年同期的 94%和95%的五年平均水平。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-11-18 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 4.俄乌冲突尚在进行，乌克兰油菜籽减产和俄罗斯油菜籽产量增加相对 抵消影响，全球地缘冲突未来仍有上升可能，对大宗商品尚有支撑。 菜粕RM2601：2460至2520区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕探底回升，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜 籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求旺季过去，但库存维持低位支撑盘面， 加上中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受豆粕影响维持区间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2550，基差101，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - **For Bean Meal (M2601)**: The domestic bean meal is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern between 3080 and 3140. It is influenced by the US soybean trend, with short - term demand in the off - season and spot price discount suppressing the upward movement. Although China's purchase of US soybeans supports the short - term US soybean market, there are uncertainties in the purchase volume, and the overall good US soybean harvest weather restricts the upside. Additionally, the relatively high arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans in China also affects the domestic bean meal market [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2601)**: The domestic soybean price is expected to fluctuate between 4160 and 4260. The US soybean trend, the cost support of imported soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price. However, the high production of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppress the price [11]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are uncertainties in China's purchase volume and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is expected to be range - bound above the thousand - point mark in the short term, waiting for further guidance on the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the planting weather in South American soybean - producing areas. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also declined from a high level. The relatively normal harvest weather of US soybeans and the China - US trade negotiation agreement led to the short - term range - bound pattern of domestic bean meal, waiting for further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bean Meal Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills' bean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bean Meal Bearish Factors**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in November, the listing of harvested US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a good US soybean harvest [14]. - **Soybean Bullish Factors**: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - **Soybean Bearish Factors**: High production of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese purchases, and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal**: Spot price is 3000 (East China), with a basis of - 43, indicating a discount to futures. The oil mill bean meal inventory is 115.3 million tons, a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: Not specifically elaborated on fundamental data other than the price range and influencing factors 5. Position Data - **Bean Meal**: The main short positions increased, and the funds flowed out [9]. - **Soybeans**: Not specifically elaborated on position data other than the price range and influencing factors 6. Bean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies - **Bean Meal (M2601)**: The short - term trend is neutral. The basis is bearish, the inventory is bearish, the price on the chart is bullish, the main position is bearish, and the overall short - term expectation is a range - bound pattern [9]. - **Soybeans (A2601)**: The short - term trend is neutral. The basis is bearish, the inventory is bearish, the price on the chart is bullish, the main position is bearish, and the overall short - term expectation is a range - bound pattern [11].