投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-26 市场担忧供应，豆粕盘面近月领涨 油脂：昨日震荡偏强，关注上方技术阻力 蛋白粕：市场担忧供应，盘面近月领涨 玉米/淀粉：缺乏驱动，市场僵持 生猪：年底供需博弈，猪价震荡 天然橡胶：胶价继续向上突破，短期或维持偏强 合成橡胶：消息面刺激有限，盘面高位回落 棉花：政策预期部分落地，棉价延续攀升 白糖：阶段性触底后，糖价反弹 纸浆：持续横盘震荡，现货维持偏弱 双胶纸：纸企相继发布涨价函，双胶底部存支撑 原木：底部存在支撑，原木低位区间震荡 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 风险因素：进口政策，南美天气，贸易战，宏观。 农业团队 【异动品种】 蛋白粕观点：市场担忧供应，盘面近月领涨 逻辑：国际方面，海外圣诞节，美豆休市。USDA数据显示，美豆11月压榨 量环比走低，对华出口增长缓慢。巴西大豆播种近尾声，阿根廷大豆播种 过半。布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所（BAGE）称，截至12月17日，阿根廷 2025/26年度大豆播种完成67.3%，高于一周前的58.6%。南美大豆产量前 景乐观，未来15天降水略多，温度略低。 ...

转自：期货日报 2025年豆系市场走势主要受国内大豆到港节奏、美豆产区天气及出口预期变化等因素影响。当前，美豆 因出口担忧加剧，加之南美丰产预期强化，上行动能已显不足。在此背景下，国内豆粕的进口成本支撑 随之弱化，同时供应压力依然存在，预计价格将延续弱势运行态势。 国际大豆供应宽松 国际大豆市场供应延续宽松格局。截至12月末，美豆收割工作基本完成，大豆上市压力持续释放，美豆 出口需求支撑不足。巴西大豆播种进度超九成，尽管前期部分产区遭遇干旱，但大豆总体长势良好，丰 产压力犹存。阿根廷大豆播种进度加快，虽然新作种植面积略有下调，但整体供应充足，全球大豆丰产 格局延续。 市场关注点逐步转向南美天气。世界气象组织认为，未来三个月发生弱拉尼娜现象的概率为55%。其 中，巴西南部产区可能面临干旱威胁，阿根廷大豆整个关键生长期则与拉尼娜活跃期重合，减产风险相 对较大。尽管弱拉尼娜现象本身难以扭转全球大豆供过于求的格局，但这将成为影响产量预期和市场情 绪的关键因素。 中美贸易关系进入新阶段。后续中国采购美豆的节奏与规模，将成为影响美豆出口及贸易流向的重要因 素。 2025年中国大豆进口量预计突破 1.1亿吨，创历史新高，进 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Downward [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways [1] - Oils: Sideways [1] - Eggs: Sideways [1] - Pigs: Upward [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn: On Wednesday, corn continued to fluctuate. The trading in the Northeast was lackluster, and there was no profit in shipping goods to the northern port. The price in North China remained stable. The overall inventory of deep - processing enterprises was increasing, and the terminal demand was weak. Technically, the March contract showed signs of stabilizing, and short - term long positions with light positions could be considered [1]. - Soybean Meal: On Wednesday, CBOT soybean prices rose as investors adjusted their positions before the long holiday. In China, the two - meal market fluctuated downward, with spot prices slightly falling. The spot inventory was high, and the trading volume of forward contracts was large. The market atmosphere was light, and the price range was limited. A double - selling strategy was recommended [1]. - Oils: On Wednesday, BMD palm oil was basically flat. International crude oil prices rose for the sixth consecutive day. The output of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44% month - on - month. In China, soybean oil and palm oil fluctuated, while rapeseed oil rose. The price direction was unclear, and a double - selling strategy was recommended [1]. - Eggs: On Wednesday, egg futures rebounded from a low level. The spot price was weak due to sufficient supply, despite the approaching New Year's Day. There was uncertainty in capacity reduction, so it was recommended to wait and see [1][2]. - Pigs: On Wednesday, the main 2603 contract of live pigs closed with a small阳线, and the spot price increased. The daily slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises increased, and the average weight decreased slightly. Technically, short - term attention should be paid to the bottom performance of the March contract, and long - term long positions with light positions could be considered for forward contracts [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Market Information - Malaysian palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44%, with different decreases in different regions [3]. - On December 23, the CNF quotes of 24 - degree palm oil imports for January and February shipments increased week - on - week, and the corresponding arrival and tax - paid costs in South China also rose [3]. - The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills fluctuated. On December 24, the total trading volume was 18.45 tons, an increase of 10.99 tons from the previous day [3]. Group 4: Summary According to Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and contract basis charts, including those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [5][13]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但美豆出口数据不佳，利空美盘市场情绪。南美天气降雨改善， | | 豆粕 | | 市场缺乏利多驱动。本周国内最新及豆粕库存环比减少改善，但同比偏高，12 月供 | | | 震荡偏空 | 应预计暂充足，但一季度进口预估同比下降，叠加美豆进口成本抬升，现货价格表 | | ★ | | 现抗跌。豆粕预计短线暂维持震荡偏弱行情。关注美豆出口情况及南美天气情况。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，仓单库存压力有所减轻。但全球丰产、进 | | 菜粕 | | 口多元化及消费淡季弱化看多预期。菜粕短期以跟随豆粕趋势为主，菜粕一季度供 | | ★ | 震荡偏空 | 应整体偏紧，库存压力缓解，比豆粕相比表现出一定的抗跌性。关注澳籽压榨和进 | | | | 口政策、中加贸易后续进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 马棕榈油 12月20日最新产量数据环比下降。12月马棕榈油累库的可能性依然存在， | | | 止跌反弹 | 短线以反弹对待，追多谨慎，注意仓位及操作节奏。关注明日马棕榈油出口数据情 | | ★ | | 况 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is currently in a stalemate with weak supply and demand. Short - term prices are expected to remain in a volatile and wait - and - see state due to policy regulation, support from farmers' reluctance to sell, and weak demand [2] - The peanut market shows a situation where the trading atmosphere is dull with a slight difference in the mentality of traders. Attention should be paid to the changes in the procurement rhythm of downstream enterprises [3][4] Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures and Spot Market - Yesterday, the closing price of the Douyi 2605 contract was 4106.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan/ton (+0.05%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A05 + 134, up 38 (+32.14%) from the previous day [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: Although the rotation storage auction has increased potential sources of goods, the low transaction volume reflects cautious market acceptance. Coupled with the widespread reluctance to sell in the producing areas, the overall supply is still tight [2] - Demand: High prices have suppressed procurement. Downstream processing enterprises mainly replenish inventory based on rigid demand, and their willingness to actively stock up is insufficient [2] Spot Price - In Heilongjiang, the spot prices of soybeans in different regions vary. For example, in Harbin, the loading price of the national standard first - class protein 39% medium - grain tower grain is 2.10 yuan/jin; in Baocheng, it is 2.08 yuan/jin [1] Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures and Spot Market - Yesterday, the closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 7968.00 yuan/ton, up 18.00 yuan/ton (+0.23%) from the previous day. The average spot price of peanuts was 8055.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis was PK03 - 1068.00, up 82.00 (-7.13%) from the previous day [3] Supply and Demand - Supply: The rhythm of goods arrival at the grass - roots level varies among different producing areas, and the price difference structure between regions remains stable. Some holders choose to offer small discounts to promote sales [3] - Demand: Food processing enterprises maintain on - demand procurement, while oil processing enterprises strictly control the quality indicators of oilseeds. Some factories have an increase in the phenomenon of trucks waiting to unload and a high return rate [4] Spot Price - The average price of general - grade peanuts in the national market was 4.03 yuan/jin, showing a stable but slightly weak trend. The prices in different regions and for different varieties vary. For example, the good - quality Henan wheat - stubble Baisha general - grade peanuts are priced at 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and the 8 - sieve refined rice is 4.2 - 4.3 yuan/jin [3]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-25 下游补库谨慎，豆粕震荡运行 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2728元/吨，较前日变动-17元/吨，幅度-0.62%；菜粕2605合约2344元/吨，较前 日变动-5元/吨，幅度-0.21%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3080元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+352， 较前日变动+17；江苏地区豆粕现货3010元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M05+282，较前日变动+7；广东地 区豆粕现货价格3020元/吨，较前日变动跌-10元/吨，现货基差M05+292，较前日变动+7。福建地区菜粕现货价格 2570元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM05+226，较前日变动+5。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部周二公布的出口销售报告显示，12月11日止当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净 增239.62万吨，较之前一周增加54%，较前四周均值增加69%。市场预估为净增180-290万吨。其中，对中国大陆出 口销售净增138.3万吨。阿根廷农牧渔业国秘处公布的数据显示，阿根廷11月大豆压榨量为349.3万吨，豆油产量为 58.7 ...

2025 年 12 月 25 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕或反弹震荡 豆一：国储收储价上调，影响偏多 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4106 +2 | （+0.05%） 4113 | +7（+0.17%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2728 | -14（-0.51%） 2725 | -14（-0.51%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1075.75 | +12.75（+1.20%） | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 308 | +4.0（+1.32%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | 3040～3110， | 较昨-10至持平； 持平； M2605+380， | 现货基差M2605+360， 3月M2605+340/+350/+360/+3 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 25 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆期价小幅收涨，宏观利好被南美大豆产量上调预期抵消，多家机构近期纷纷上调巴西 大豆产量预估，市场对全球大豆供应宽松的担忧加剧；同时，美豆出口缺乏持续买盘提振，短期反弹 空间受限。国内现货价格承压回落。当前国内豆粕库存高企，贸易商在高库存压力下采取滚动补库策 略，饲料厂则多维持安全库存，按需采购，整体成交氛围清淡。短期豆粕延续弱势格局，关注后续南 美天气变化及国内油厂开机节奏对库存的影响。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-25 糖价强势反弹，郑棉震荡上行 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14180元/吨，较前一日变动+40元/吨，幅度+0.28%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15081元/吨，较前一日变动+14元/吨，现货基差CF05+901，较前一日变动-26；3128B棉全国均价15271元/吨， 较前一日变动+58元/吨，现货基差CF05+1091，较前一日变动+18。 近期市场资讯，截至2025年12月11日，美国累计净签约出口2025/26年度棉花144.5万吨，达到年度预期出口量的 54.39%，累计装运棉花60.5万吨，装运率41.88%。其中陆地棉签约量为140.2万吨，装运57.7万吨，装运率41.16%。 皮马棉签约量为4.2万吨，装运2.8万吨，装运率65.85%。其中，中国累计签约进口2025/26年度美棉6.4万吨，占美 棉已签约量的4.42％；累计装运美棉2.3万吨，占美棉总装运量的3.77％，占中国已签约量的35.68％。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡上行。国际方面，本月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球棉花 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity market shows a mixed trend, with different agricultural products having their own price movements and influencing factors. For example, natural rubber prices rose due to strong commodity sentiment, but face potential pressure from hedging; while soybean - related products are affected by factors such as South American harvest expectations and domestic inventory levels [1][5]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 (1)油脂 - **观点**: Yesterday, rapeseed oil was relatively strong. Pay attention to the changes in domestic and international oil production and demand expectations. - **Logic**: Concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest led to a bearish trend in US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with rapeseed oil relatively strong. The macro - environment includes a strong US Q3 GDP and a weakening US dollar, and rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical concerns. From the industrial side, South American soybean harvest expectations are strong, US soybean demand is uncertain, domestic soybean inventories are high, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. Palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction period in December, and the probability of inventory reduction in the origin is high. Rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase in the later stage. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. The oil market is facing a game of multiple factors and may continue to fluctuate in the near future [5]. (2)蛋白粕 - **观点**: Inventory pressure persists, and the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) prices fluctuate at a low level. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US soybean market is closed during the Christmas period. US soybean crushing volume decreased in November, and exports to China grew slowly. South American soybeans have a good production outlook. Domestically, spot and basis are stable, soybean and soybean meal inventories are slowly decreasing seasonally, downstream aquaculture is in a loss, and consumption is not strong during the peak season. The purchase volume of imported soybeans in Q4 2025 decreased year - on - year, while that in Q1 2026 increased year - on - year. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [6]. (3)玉米及淀粉 - **观点**: Snowy weather has a phased impact on the supply in the production area. - **Logic**: In the upstream, snow in the Northeast has slowed down the grain - selling process, and in the North China region, the purchase of local corn has increased. In the downstream, feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises have different inventory and procurement strategies. The market is in a tight - balance state, with prices having both upward and downward pressures, and is expected to fluctuate within a range. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to factors such as old wheat auctions, grain - selling progress, and downstream profits [8][9]. (4)生猪 - **观点**: The increase in secondary fattening in some areas has led to a stop in the decline of pig prices and a rebound. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, the short - term supply of large pigs is increasing, the medium - term supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive until April 2026, and the long - term supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. In terms of demand, the demand during the Winter Solstice has increased. In terms of inventory, the average weight of pigs has increased. In the short - term, the increase in consumption has driven the rebound of pig prices, but high - weight pigs may limit the price increase. In the medium - term, the supply - demand situation is generally loose, and in the long - term, the supply pressure is expected to gradually weaken. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate weakly. The near - term prices are expected to be weak, while the far - term prices are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction. Pay attention to reverse - spread strategy opportunities [10]. (5)天然橡胶 - **观点**: Strong commodity sentiment has driven up rubber prices. - **Logic**: Natural rubber prices rose strongly yesterday, mainly due to macro - level driving. Although it slightly broke through the shock range, there may still be large hedging pressure above. The current fundamentals lack strong driving forces. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices support the market to some extent, but there is still a risk of decline. The demand side is weak. If there is no continuous capital inflow, rubber prices are likely to return to the range - bound market. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, and rubber prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with no obvious trend - based single - side market [12]. (6)合成橡胶 - **观点**: The market rebounded after a decline. - **Logic**: The BR contract recovered all the previous day's losses and rose slightly. It is favored by funds due to the marginal improvement of butadiene fundamentals and the relatively low absolute price of the BR contract. The butadiene market price fluctuated upward last week, but there was resistance to high - price transactions later. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but there is still short - term upward pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term [14]. (7)棉花 - **观点**: The rebound continues. - **Logic**: In the long - and medium - term, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices are expected to rise, mainly due to the possible tight - balance situation in the new year and potential positive policies. Currently, commercial inventories are accumulating during the peak cotton - listing period. The planting policy is expected to tighten next year, which may lead to a decrease in the cotton - planting area in Xinjiang. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. Maintain the strategy of buying on dips [14]. (8)白糖 - **观点**: Short - sellers taking profits have driven up sugar prices. - **Logic**: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract rebounded from the low level. Short - sellers taking profits was the main reason for the sharp rise. In the international market, Brazil's sugar production is still at a high level, and the new - season production in the Northern Hemisphere shows different trends. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus supply in the new season. In the domestic market, the supply of sugar will increase marginally. - **Outlook**: In the long - and medium - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, as the new - season global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus [16]. (9)纸浆 - **观点**: The warming atmosphere in the commodity market has led to a fluctuating and rising trend in pulp futures. - **Logic**: The pulp futures fluctuated at a high level yesterday. The fundamental factors include both positive and negative aspects. The positive factors are more likely to be realized in the short - term, and the negative factors are mainly related to the transmission of high prices in the long - term. Overall, the positive factors in the pulp market are more, which will push up the bottom of the futures price. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate strongly. Positive news will lift the bottom, but the hedging pressure above still exists [17]. (10)双胶纸 - **观点**: Fluctuate. - **Logic**: The spot price of double - offset paper is stable. Some paper mills have announced price - increase plans for January 2026, which slightly boosts market confidence. However, the supply - surplus situation is difficult to change, and the market expectation is cautious. The supply pressure still exists, downstream demand is weak, and the supply - demand is in a weak - balance state. - **Outlook**: The weak supply - demand pattern is expected to continue, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. Pay attention to whether paper mills will shut down production [18]. (11)原木 - **观点**: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and logs are expected to fluctuate within a range. - **Logic**: The current contradiction in the log market lies in the realization process of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term supply pressure is gradually relieved, and the futures price of the 03 contract has a certain support level. In the medium - term, the arrival pressure is expected to be relieved, and there are game points in the 03 contract. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the supply pressure is relieved. Pay attention to reverse - spread or low - buying opportunities in the far - month contracts [20]. 2.品种数据监测 - The report only lists the names of various product categories such as "油脂油料", "蛋⽩粕", etc., but no specific data monitoring content is provided. 3.中信期货商品指数 - **综合指数**: - The special index shows that the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all increased, with increases of 1.08%, 1.01%, and 1.10% respectively. - **板块指数**: - The agricultural product index on December 24, 2025, increased by 0.31% today, with a 0.63% increase in the past 5 days, a - 0.86% change in the past month, and a - 3.52% change since the beginning of the year [178][180].