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天富期货:豆油劲升、白糖下挫
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 13:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends, with some commodities rising and others falling. Factors such as export expectations, demand changes, supply pressures, and seasonal factors influence the prices of different agricultural products [1] 3. Summary by Variety (1) Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main contract 2509 continued to rise strongly to a new high, driven by strong exports and expected demand growth. Indian soybean oil imports in July increased by 38% month - on - month to 495,000 tons. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold a light long position [2] (2) Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2509 continued to fall to a one - month low, pressured by the expectation of increased imported sugar. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold a light short position [3] (3) Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract 2509 adjusted slightly at a high level. Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to increase, but domestic inventory decreased slightly last week. Technically, it is slightly strong in the short - term, and the strategy is short - term trading [6] (4) Corn - The corn main contract 2509 rebounded at a low level, but the downward trend remained unchanged. Supply increased and demand was weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold a light short position [9] (5) Eggs - The egg main contract 2509 rebounded at a low level, but the downward trend remained. Supply pressure was high due to high laying - hen inventory, and demand was weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold a light short position [10][12] (6) Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2509 adjusted slightly. Near - month contracts faced high - inventory pressure, but future supply may be tight. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is short - term trading [13][15] (7) Cotton - The cotton main contract 2509 rebounded slightly and fluctuated at a low level. New - year cotton is expected to be abundant, and demand is weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold a light short position [16] (8) Live Pigs - The live pig market showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The 2509 contract continued to fall, while the 2511 contract rebounded. Consumption is expected to improve in the future. The strategy is to hold a light short position on the 2509 contract [18] (9) Red Dates - The red date main contract 2601 oscillated upwards. New - date production is expected to decrease, and demand is expected to pick up after立秋. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold a light long position [20] (10) Apples - The apple main contract 2510 reversed and rose. Apple inventory is low, and demand is expected to be boosted in the future. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to buy on dips [22]
国投期货农产品日报-20250806
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 11:21
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean 1: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Bean Meal: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Bean Oil: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Rapeseed Meal: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Corn: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Live Pigs: One star, representing a slightly bearish view with limited operability on the market [1] - Eggs: One star, representing a slightly bearish view with limited operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - For the overall agricultural products market, various factors such as policy, weather, supply - demand, and tariffs are influencing the prices of different products, and each product has its own short - to - medium - term trends and uncertainties [2][3][4] - The prices of different agricultural products are affected by different factors, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors for each product, such as weather for soybeans, tariffs for soybeans and bean meal, and seasonal demand for oils [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Bean 1 - This Friday, there will be a competitive auction of domestic soybeans with a supply of 32,000 tons. Northeast soybean is in the pod - setting stage, and the weather is favorable for growth. The price difference between Bean 1 and Bean 2 continues to decline, and Bean 1 is weaker than imported soybeans. The decline of imported soybeans has slowed down and is in a low - level consolidation. Future attention should be paid to domestic soybean weather and policy [2] Soybeans & Bean Meal - The excellent rate of US soybeans is at a high level in the same period of history. The weather in the next two weeks in the US soybean - producing areas is normal, and US soybeans are oscillating weakly. In China, Brazilian soybeans continue to arrive at ports, the oil mill crushing rate is stable, and the bean meal inventory has reached a high level this year. Before the tariff issue is clear, the bean meal market is in a state of oscillation [3] Bean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic bean oil is strong today, stronger than palm oil. There are uncertainties in the long - term supply of bean oil due to tariffs, and it is in the demand peak season in the fourth quarter. The medium - term US bean oil is likely to be oscillating neutral or slightly strong. The price difference between foreign and domestic bean oil may converge to zero or negative values, mainly through domestic price increases. A long - position strategy on dips is maintained for bean oil and palm oil, and palm oil may face a production reduction cycle in the fourth quarter [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed meal is oscillating, with a slight increase in rapeseed meal and a slight decline in rapeseed oil. The Canadian rapeseed futures price continues to decline due to favorable weather. The domestic rapeseed inventory is decreasing, and the import situation has not improved. The rapeseed meal benefits from the seasonal peak of aquatic feed. The short - term trend of rapeseed products is still oscillating, and attention should be paid to China - Canada economic and trade relations and domestic inventory changes [6] Corn - As of August 3, the excellent rate of US corn is 73%, and the price is still falling. In China, the auction of imported corn has been carried out 11 times since July, with a total of about 268,800 tons, and the transaction rate has been decreasing. Another auction of 19,930 tons will be held on August 8. The continuous supply of grain sources has affected market expectations, and the Dalian corn futures are weak. The new - season corn planting area may expand, and there is a high probability of a bumper harvest. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has declined slightly and remains weak. Except for the 09 contract, other far - month contracts have rebounded slightly with increasing positions. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in August has increased by 6.6% month - on - month, and the slaughter volume in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. The long - term focus is on when the industry's capacity reduction will be realized [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is weak, and most provinces are still experiencing price declines. The 09 contract on the futures market has rebounded with significant position reduction as short - sellers take profits. Future attention should be paid to the peak - season stocking demand before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day and the impact of cold - storage eggs on the spot market. The egg price needs to decline further to achieve in - depth capacity reduction. The price in the first half of next year is more supported, and the off - season contracts in the second half of this year are relatively weak, suggesting a reverse spread strategy on the futures market [9]
港口大豆库存持续回升 预计豆二短期震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-06 08:11
芝商所官网数据显示,截至8月1日当周,CBOT大豆可交割库存为686.9万蒲式耳,较此前一周的694.7 万蒲式耳减少1.12%,较上年同期的269.7万蒲式耳增加154.69%。 监测显示,8月1日,全国主要油厂进口大豆库存718万吨,周环比上升6万吨,月环比上升19万吨,同比 减少68万吨,较过去三年均值上升84万吨。 Safras&Mercado称,巴西2025/26年度大豆销售量达到预期产量的16.8%,上年同期为22.5%;2024/25年 度大豆销售量达到预期产量的78.4%,上年同期为82.2%。 8月6日,国内期市油脂油料板块涨跌不一。其中,豆二期货呈现震荡上行走势,截至收盘,主力合约报 3729.00元/吨,小幅上涨0.76%。 【宏观消息速递】 机构观点:预计豆二短期震荡 新世纪期货研报:种植成本支撑美豆,美中西部天气良好,大豆优良率虽下滑但仍居高位,压力美豆, 南美新豆出口持续,预计三季度月均约1000万吨大豆到港,油厂开工率高位,部分油厂豆粕胀库压力, 港口大豆库存持续回升,供应充裕,预计豆二短期震荡,关注美豆天气、大豆到港况。 据欧盟委员会,截至8月3日,欧盟2025/26年度大豆进 ...
农产品日报:供需改善有限,纸浆延续弱势-20250806
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 05:11
Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][6][8] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. Domestic cotton prices face constraints in the short - term and new pressure in the fourth quarter [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and face downward pressure in the long - term [5][6] - The pulp market has supply pressure and limited demand improvement. Short - term pulp prices may stay at the bottom [8] Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,655 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,081 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The national average price was 15,169 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton [1] - As of August 3, the budding rate of US cotton was 87%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 2 points slower than the five - year average. The boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 points slower than last year and 3 points slower than the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 5%, 2 points slower than last year and 1 point slower than the five - year average. The good - quality rate was 55%, 10 points higher than last year and 8 points higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International cotton prices lack obvious drivers and are expected to fluctuate with macro - market sentiment. Domestic cotton prices face constraints due to slow inventory drawdown, low import in the third quarter, and weak terminal demand. In the fourth quarter, new cotton listing will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy and treat Zhengzhou cotton as under pressure and in a volatile pattern in the short - term [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,697 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,865 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Brazil's 2025 sugarcane planting area is expected to be 9.1685 million hectares, down 0.6% from last month's estimate and 0.2% from 2024. The production is estimated to be 693 million tons, down 0.1% from last month's estimate and 1.9% from 2024 [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar is in a weak - volatile pattern due to Brazil's accelerated crushing and good supply prospects. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate in a range in the short - term and may have a tail - up market in the fourth quarter, but face downward pressure in the long - term [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy, expect short - term range - bound fluctuations and a long - term bearish trend [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,160 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,810 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,200 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market continued to decline, with prices of some grades in different regions falling [7] Market Analysis - The pulp market has supply pressure due to high port inventory and expected production. Demand is weak both globally and domestically, with limited improvement expected in the second half of the year [8] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy, expect short - term pulp prices to stay at the bottom [8]
市场情绪升温,棕油领涨油脂
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 03:17
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating Bullish [7] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [8] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating Bearish [9] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [10] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [13] - Cotton: Oscillating [14] - Sugar: Oscillating [15] - Pulp: Oscillating [16] - Logs: Oscillating Bearish [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors, and it is likely to operate strongly in the near future under the stabilization of market sentiment [2][3][7]. - The protein meal market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with the far - month contracts expected to strengthen [8]. - The corn/starch market is currently in a weak state, with short - term uncertainties in old crop de - stocking and a downward trend after new crop listing [9][10]. - The live pig market presents a situation of "weak reality + strong expectation", with high inventory pressure in the short - term and potential supply reduction in the long - term [10]. - The natural rubber market rebounds due to some speculative sentiment, and the short - term performance is expected to follow the macro - wide fluctuations [10][12]. - The synthetic rubber market is supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, and it is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [13]. - The cotton market returns to fundamental trading, with the price expected to oscillate within a certain range [14]. - The sugar market is under downward pressure due to the increasing supply pressure [15]. - The pulp market remains weak, and the strategy is to pay attention to the reverse spread during the decline [16]. - The log market has limited fundamental changes and is mainly treated within a range [17][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Affected by factors such as short - covering, US policy uncertainty, OPEC+ production increase, good growth of US soybeans, and the production and inventory situation of palm oil and rapeseed oil [2][7]. - **Outlook**: It is likely to operate strongly in the near future, and attention should be paid to the performance of upper technical resistance [3][7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, the good rate of US soybeans is 69%, and there are still weather risks. Domestically, the short - term supply is sufficient, and there may be a supply gap in the long - term [8]. - **Outlook**: The spot and basis may oscillate at a low level, and the far - month contracts are expected to strengthen [8]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **Logic**: The supply side has inventory digestion and import auction issues, and the demand side has low acceptance of high - priced grains. The new crop situation is normal [9][10]. - **Outlook**: There are uncertainties in short - term old crop de - stocking, and there is a downward trend after new crop listing [10]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **Logic**: The supply is strong in the short, medium, and long - term, and the demand is weak. The policy has a guiding effect on capacity reduction [10]. - **Outlook**: The market presents a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, and attention should be paid to reverse spread strategies [10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: Driven by some speculative sentiment, the short - term fundamentals have no major contradictions [10][12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term performance follows the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment [12]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: Supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, the raw material market is in a weak downward trend [13]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [13]. 3.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level. The price oscillates within a certain range [14]. - **Outlook**: The single - side oscillates, and the range operation is recommended. The reverse spread of the monthly difference is stopped profit at the stage [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **Logic**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, and the short - term supply pressure increases [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the long - term, and the short - term strategy is to short on rebounds [15]. 3.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The supply pressure of hardwood pulp is high, the demand is weak, and the overseas market is also weak. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [16]. - **Outlook**: The recent fluctuations follow the macro - situation, and it is expected to oscillate widely [16]. 3.10 Logs - **Logic**: The cost increases, the supply pressure eases, and there are both long and short factors in the market [17][18]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals change little, and it is mainly operated within the range of 800 - 850 [18].
油脂走强、玉米大跌
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 11:48
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance, with strong performance in the oil sector led by palm oil, while corn, eggs, and other products continue to decline. Each variety is affected by different supply - demand fundamentals and technical factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each variety [1]. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil 2509 contract rose significantly, driven by cost recovery and a decline in domestic inventories. As of August 1, 2025, the national key - area palm oil inventory was 58.22 tons, a 5.41% week - on - week decrease. The import cost rebounded on August 5. However, the weak fundamentals of increasing production and decreasing exports in Malaysia may limit its rebound space [2]. - Technically, the futures price stood above the moving average system, with the MACD green column shrinking. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 8964 and resistance at 9106 [3][4]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil 2509 contract rose strongly to a new high, boosted by the strength of palm oil. Although domestic oil mills maintained high crushing volumes and soybean oil inventories continued to accumulate, there may be a supply gap in the future. China's exports of soybean oil to India also supported the price [5]. - Technically, the futures price was above the moving average system, with the MACD red column expanding. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8260 and resistance at 8400 [5]. Corn - The corn 2509 contract fell significantly to a four - month low. Supply increased due to continuous auctions of imported corn by CGSGB, continuous wheat substitution, and good new - season corn production. Demand was weak as feed enterprises used previous inventories and deep - processing enterprises had poor profits [7]. - Technically, the futures price was below the moving average system, with the MACD green column expanding after a zero - axis death cross. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 2220 and resistance at 2260 [7]. Eggs - The egg 2509 contract continued to decline, hitting a new low for the year. The supply was abundant as the culling of old hens was slow and the number of newly - laid hens increased. The July national in - production laying - hen inventory was about 1.292 billion, a 1.73% month - on - month and 7.14% year - on - year increase. Demand was weak due to postponed Mid - Autumn Festival stocking and other factors [9]. - Technically, the futures price was far below the moving average system, with the MACD green column significantly expanding after a death cross. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 3300 and resistance at 3390 [9]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal 2509 contract first rose and then declined, with limited upside. The expected high inventory in August (above 1.2 million tons) pressured the price, but the increase in imported soybean costs and concerns about insufficient supply in the fourth quarter provided support [11]. - Technically, the futures price fluctuated above the moving averages. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 3014 and resistance at 3050 [11]. Cotton - The cotton 2509 contract's rebound was blocked. Xinjiang's cotton production is expected to be good, and the market anticipates the issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas. The downstream textile industry is in a slump, with weak demand for cotton [13]. - Technically, the futures price fell below the moving averages, with the MACD green column continuing after a death cross. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 13535 and resistance at 13750 [13]. Live Pigs - The live pig 2509 contract continued to fall to a one - and - a - half - month low. Supply increased as farmers accelerated the release of production capacity, and demand was weak due to high - temperature weather and increased alternative consumption [15]. - Technically, the futures price continued to fall, with the MACD green column continuing to expand after a death cross. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 13770 and resistance at 14000 [15]. White Sugar - The Zhengzhou white sugar 2509 contract continued to fall, hitting a one - month low. The expectation of increased imported sugar volume pressured the price, and the future increase in processed sugar may slow down the inventory reduction of domestic sugar [17]. - Technically, the futures price was below the moving average system, with the MACD green column continuously expanding after a death cross. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 5680 and resistance at 5730 [17]. Red Dates - The red date 2601 contract first declined and then rose. There is an expected reduction in new - date production (estimated at 56 - 62 million tons, a 20 - 25% year - on - year decrease). The consumption is in the off - season, and the sample inventory is slowly decreasing [19]. - Technically, the futures price showed a strong trend, with the MACD red column continuing after a golden cross. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 10720 and resistance at 11100 [19]. Apples - The apple 2510 contract continued to rebound, supported by short - covering. As of July 31, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 576,100 tons, 410,500 tons lower than the same period last year. The supply is a mix of old and new apples, and the demand is average [21]. - Technically, the futures price stood above the short - term moving averages. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 7796 and resistance at 7900 [21].
【早间看点】路透预计马棕7月库存为225万吨USDA美豆当周优良率为69%符合预期-20250805
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 09:11
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking for commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and related products. Specific Summaries by Section Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil 10 was 4,218.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.39% and an overnight decline of 0.76% [1]. - Brent 10 (ICE) closed at 68.68, with a previous - day decline of 1.21% and an overnight decline of 0.85% [1]. - NYMEX US crude oil 09 closed at 66.24, with a previous - day decline of 1.52% and an overnight decline of 0.94% [1]. - CBOT US soybeans 11 closed at 994.50, with a previous - day increase of 0.66% and an overnight decline of 0.13% [1]. Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot price in North China was 8,920, with a basis of 120 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 8,330, with a basis of 80 and a basis decline of 2 from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 2,900, with a basis of - 118 and a basis decline of 9 from the previous day [2]. Important Fundamental Information Weather in Production Areas - US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - normal temperature and precipitation from August 9 - 13 [4]. - The Midwest planting belt in the US will be mostly dry this week, with soil moisture remaining good. A front has passed, bringing cooler temperatures [6]. International Supply - Demand - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in July 2025 is expected to be 2.25 million tons, an increase of 10.8% from June [8]. - As of June 30, 2025, 89.6% (5.03 million hectares) of Malaysia's oil palm plantations had MSPO certification [8]. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate as of August 3, 2025, was 69%, in line with market expectations [10]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 4, 2025, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 33,150 tons, a 25% decrease from the previous trading day [14]. - As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils in key regions in China was 2.3611 million tons, a 0.03% decrease from the previous week [14]. Macro News International News - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 5.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 94.4% [17]. - The US factory orders in June decreased by 4.8% month - on - month, in line with expectations [17]. Domestic News - On August 4, 2025, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1395, up 101 points (appreciation of the RMB) [19]. - On August 4, 2025, the central bank conducted 544.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 49 billion yuan [19]. Fund Flows On August 4, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 778 million yuan, with a net inflow of 2.6 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net outflow of 1.822 billion yuan in stock index futures [21]. Arbitrage Tracking No specific content provided.
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250805
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 09:02
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For corn, the high-quality rate of US corn remains good, and the weather is favorable for corn growth in the Midwest, leading to high output prospects and continuous pressure on international corn prices. In the domestic market, the supply is becoming more abundant, and downstream demand is average, with weak procurement enthusiasm. Corn futures prices are generally weak and should be treated with a bearish mindset [2]. - For corn starch, due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years, reducing supply pressure. However, downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Corn starch futures prices have been oscillating weakly at a low level recently and should also be treated with a bearish mindset [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn: The closing price of the active contract is 2,249 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 monthly spread is 55 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the active contract is 768,475 lots, up 21,511 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 35,985 lots, down 18,100 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 151,940 lots, down 601 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 405 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn starch: The closing price of the active contract is 2,654 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 monthly spread is 96 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the active contract is 153,533 lots, down 1,311 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,480 lots, up 5,331 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 4,450 lots, up 4,450 lots [2]. Outer - disk Market - The closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn is 407 cents/bushel, down 4 cents/bushel; the total position is 1,575,283 contracts, up 81,613 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133,467 contracts, up 416 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2,398.04 yuan/ton, down 3.33 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2,320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn is 1,926.33 yuan/ton, down 2.37 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 45 US dollars/ton [2]. - Corn starch: The factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2,710 yuan/ton, 2,950 yuan/ton, and 2,880 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2,437.61 yuan/ton, down 2.22 yuan/ton; the price difference between tapioca starch and corn starch is 140 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is 36 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine is 401.85 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively, all unchanged; the predicted sown areas are 35.37 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, 44.3 million hectares respectively, all unchanged [2]. - Corn inventories at southern ports are 88.9 million tons, up 62 million tons; at northern ports are 291 million tons, down 13 million tons; the monthly import volume is 16 million tons, down 3 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly inventory of deep - processing corn is 379.7 million tons, down 20.8 million tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 129.3 million tons, down 1.8 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27,780 tons, up 4,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2,762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the sample feed corn inventory days are 30.58 days, down 0.29 days; the weekly consumption of deep - processing corn is 113.77 million tons, up 7.53 million tons; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 41.8%, up 3.17 percentage points; the starch enterprise operating rate is 51.76%, up 6.3 percentage points [2]. - The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 114 yuan/ton, - 48 yuan/ton, and - 67 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.63%, up 1.71 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.51%, up 0.6 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.15%, up 3.23 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.14%, up 3.23 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's weather report shows that the temperature in the corn - belt region is lower than normal, which is beneficial to the growth of soybeans and corn. StoneX predicts that the total US corn production in 2025 will reach 16.323 billion bushels, with an average yield of 188.1 bushels per acre, while the USDA predicts 15.705 billion bushels and a yield of 181 bushels per acre [2]. - As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the high - quality rate of US corn is 73%, higher than the market expectation of 72%, the same as the previous week, and higher than 67% in the same period last year [2].
现货价格稳中上涨,豆粕维持震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 05:15
Report Industry Investment Rating - For both the soybean meal and corn markets, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [4][7] Core View - The soybean meal market shows a pattern of stable and rising spot prices with a fluctuating trend. The corn market saw a weak start in the month and a slight rebound at the end. Both markets are currently in a situation of supply exceeding demand, and future price trends need to focus on policy changes, new - season crop conditions, etc. [3][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3024 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.47% from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2678 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2980 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was M09 - 44, down 4 from the previous day. In Jiangsu, it was 2910 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was M09 - 114, up 6. In Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was M09 - 134, up 6. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was RM09 - 48, down 3 [1] - US Data: In June, the US soybean crush was 197.1 million bushels, down 3.22% from May, up 7.44% from the same period last year, and close to the market expectation of 196.6 million bushels. The US soybean oil inventory at the end of June was 1.893 billion pounds, higher than the market expectation of 1.863 billion pounds [2] - Indian Data: In the first 9 months of the 2024/25 season, India's cumulative soybean oil imports were 3.93 million tons, up 93.6% from the same period last year [2] Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2284 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton or 0.57% from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2664 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot basis was C09 + 36, up 13 from the previous day. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2800 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton, and the basis was CS09 + 136, up 84 [4] - Argentine Data: As of July 30, the 2024/25 Argentine corn harvest progress was 88%, and the cumulative harvest was 4.39 million tons. The national average yield was 7.23 tons/hectare, and the annual output was expected to be 4.9 million tons, down 5% year - on - year. The 2025/26 Argentine wheat planting progress was 98.3%, and the planting area was expected to be 6.7 million hectares, up 6.3% year - on - year [4] - US Data: In June, the total consumption of corn for ethanol production and other uses in the US was 498 million bushels, slightly increasing month - on - month. Corn for beverage ethanol production was 3.06 million bushels, down 20% month - on - month and 24% year - on - year. Corn for fuel ethanol production was 448 million bushels, up 1% month - on - month and slightly up year - on - year [5] 2. Market Analysis Soybean Meal - Supply: The domestic arrival volume has been high this month, and the soybean meal inventory has further increased. The supply in the domestic market will remain loose in the short term. With positive policy expectations and a strong expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest, the future supply may be even more abundant [3] - Demand: Downstream feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and mainly purchase on - demand according to previous contracts. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change [3] - Price: Affected by macro factors, the soybean meal price first rose and then fell this month, and the overall fundamentals have not changed significantly [3] Corn - Supply: In the first half of the month, due to the import corn auction, traders sold their goods, increasing the market supply and driving down the futures and spot prices. In the second half of the month, as the auction transaction rate decreased, the supply decreased, and the corn price stopped falling and stabilized [6] - Demand: Feed enterprises mainly replenished their inventory as needed, and the demand was weak [6] - Price: The corn price was weak in the first half of the month and rebounded slightly at the end. The fundamentals of old - crop corn are unlikely to change significantly, and the new - season corn has not been listed yet [6] 3. Strategy - For both the soybean meal and corn markets, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [4][7]
农产品日报:郑棉止跌企稳,糖价弱势整理-20250805
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 05:13
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][7][10] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. Domestic cotton prices are restricted by factors such as new cotton production expectations and weak terminal demand. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] - The global sugar market may be in an increasing production cycle. Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range, and there may be a tail - up market in the fourth quarter, but the price may decline when new sugar is listed in large quantities [6] - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited. The overall fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and the price may remain at the bottom in the short term [9][10] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,675 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.66%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,069 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,153 yuan/ton, down 107 yuan/ton. The downstream market is in a wait - and - see state, and the yarn mill operating rate has declined slightly [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply of the global cotton market is expected to be loose, and the US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve. Domestically, the cotton inventory is expected to be tight before the new cotton is listed, but the new cotton has a strong production increase expectation, and the terminal demand is weak [2] Strategy - Take a bearish and oscillatory view of Zhengzhou cotton in the short term [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,718 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.26%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,865 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. India's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to increase by 18% to about 34.9 million tons [4] Market Analysis - The raw sugar price is under pressure due to increased supply from Brazil and optimistic production estimates in the Northern Hemisphere. Zhengzhou sugar's upside is limited by import expectations, with short - term range - bound fluctuations and a possible upward trend in the fourth quarter, but price decline pressure when new sugar is listed [6] Strategy - Expect short - term range - bound fluctuations and take a bearish view in the long term [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,168 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.35%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,225 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp spot market is weak [8] Market Analysis - In the second half of 2025, the pulp supply pressure remains, and the supply of hardwood pulp is looser than that of softwood pulp. The demand is weak both at home and abroad, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [9] Strategy - The pulp market lacks positive drivers, and the price may remain at the bottom in the short term [10]