1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions have shown signs of easing, leading to a rebound in precious metal prices. However, the possibility of a peace agreement remains uncertain. Therefore, it is expected that the prices of gold and silver will mainly fluctuate in the near future [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - US President Trump stated that the US and Iran had "strong" talks and formed the main points of an agreement, suspending attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 5 days. Trump also said that the US was in consultations with Iran to reach a broader agreement, and an agreement "could be reached within 5 days or even less." However, Iran has repeatedly denied having talks with the US. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said that Trump's statement aimed to lower energy prices and gain time for military operations. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that inflation is currently the main risk facing the US economy, and he does not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates. But if the Iran conflict is quickly resolved, there may still be a rate cut later this year [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On March 23, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,041.78 yuan/gram and closed at 940.00 yuan/gram, a change of -9.55% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, the contract opened at 992.80 yuan/gram and closed at 980.00 yuan/gram, a 4.26% increase from the afternoon close. - On March 23, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 17,693.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 15,411.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -12.56% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 1,259,324 lots, and the open interest was 222,721 lots. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,000 yuan/kilogram and closed at 17,246 yuan/kilogram, an 11.91% increase from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 23, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.34%, a decrease of 0.59 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.49%, a change of -0.38 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract on March 23, 2026, the long positions decreased by 4,018 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 1,300 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 854,620 lots, a change of 55.84% from the previous trading day. - On the Ag2606 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,163 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2,122 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 2,026,252 lots, a change of 45.74% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - In the precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF position was 1,056.99 tons yesterday, a decrease of 5.14 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,514 tons, an increase of 265 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On March 23, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was 35.48 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was 557.29 yuan/kilogram. - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange yesterday was approximately 61.00, a change of -0.15% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 64.26, a change of -4.35% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On the previous trading day (March 23, 2026), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 104,370 kilograms, a change of 11.07% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 478,842 kilograms, a change of 15.89% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: It is expected that the price of gold will mainly fluctuate in the near future, and the fluctuation range of the Au2604 contract may be between 950 yuan/gram and 1,000 yuan/gram. - Silver: Similar to gold in terms of macroeconomics, the price of silver is also expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern, and the fluctuation range of the Ag2606 contract may be between 16,000 yuan/kilogram and 18,000 yuan/kilogram [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - External shocks persist, and stock indices are expected to continue their weak performance in the short term. Investors are advised to remain cautious and control their positions [7]. - After a significant market decline, the probability of policy support has increased. Attention should be paid to the supportive trends of domestic factors on stock indices this week [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.32 with a -0.02bp change; DR007 at 1.43 with a 0.50bp change; GC001 at 1.49 with a 39.00bp change; GC007 at 1.50 with a 3.50bp change; SHBOR 3M at 1.52 with a -0.38bp change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change; 1 - year treasury at 1.24 with a 0.00bp change; 5 - year treasury at 1.56 with a 1.00bp change; 10 - year treasury at 1.84 with a 0.30bp change; 10 - year US treasury at 4.39 with a 14.00bp change [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 80 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 1373 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 1293 billion yuan. This week, 2423 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 4500 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Wednesday [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Data - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 fell 3.26% to 4418; the SSE 50 fell 3.17% to 2792.3; the CSI 500 fell 4.11% to 7440.7; the CSI 1000 fell 4.81% to 7409.1. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 145.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most industry sectors declined, with only the coal sector rising, and sectors such as precious metals, hotel catering, etc. having large declines [5][6]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF volume increased by 11.7% to 156,918, and open interest increased by 6.1% to 276,923; IH volume increased by 14.0% to 78,380, and open interest increased by 16.0% to 115,469; IC volume increased by 8.8% to 217,723, and open interest increased by 4.2% to 298,855; IM volume increased by 11.9% to 325,166, and open interest increased by 5.8% to 408,928 [5]. - **Futures Premium and Discount**: IF premium rates for the current, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 6.61%, 3.12%, 6.91%, and 7.35% respectively; IH are - 0.66%, - 0.31%, 2.43%, and 3.73% respectively; IC are 10.43%, 9.55%, 11.47%, and 10.74% respectively; IM are 8.89%, 10.33%, 12.27%, and 12.08% respectively [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation of the pig market features "long - term pressure and short - term fluctuations." The timing for long - term low - level layout has not yet arrived, while short - term price fluctuation risks are increasing [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Long - term Low - level Layout Timing Not Yet Apparent 3.1.1 Pig Cycle: This Cycle Will Be the Longest - Since July 2006, China's hog prices have gone through 4 complete cycles, each lasting about 3 - 4 years. The current 5th pig cycle started in April 2022 and is a weak cycle. As of August 2024, the upward phase of this cycle ended, and it has entered the downward phase. This cycle may be the longest in the pig cycle history [3]. 3.1.2 Core Reason: Severe Supply Surplus - From November 2024 to December 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased from 40.8 million to 39.61 million, with a slow de - stocking speed. The current inventory is still higher than the normal level of 39 million. Policy intervention has a long time - lag, and enterprises are reluctant to reduce production. The Contango structure of the hog market remains unchanged, and the supply reduction is expected to be apparent after August 2026 [7][8]. 3.1.3 Industry - wide Losses and Intensified Involution - style Competition - The hog - breeding sector has been in deep losses, with self - breeding and self - raising losses of - 263.99 yuan per head and losses of - 154.23 yuan per head for purchasing piglets as of March 20. Enterprises compete by lowering prices, forming a vicious cycle. It may take the bankruptcy or restructuring of 1 - 2 large - scale breeding entities for the industry supply structure to be substantially repaired. Rising feed costs are eroding breeding profits [10][12]. 3.2 Short - term Pig Price Fluctuations Intensify 3.2.1 Pig - grain Ratio Approaching the Warning Line, May Trigger Policy Adjustment - As of March 20, the pig - grain ratio dropped to 4.29:1, close to the first - level early - warning line of 4:1. Once it enters the first - level early - warning range, policy adjustment measures such as central and local frozen pork purchases may be launched, which can support short - term prices [14]. 3.2.2 Basis Narrowed to Near Parity, Futures and Spot Tend to Synchronize - Around March 10, the basis of live hogs widened to around 1,000 yuan/ton. Currently, the basis has narrowed to near parity, indicating that the futures and spot markets have similar short - term price expectations. The narrowing basis means enhanced futures price discovery function, reduced market divergence, and increased short - term price fluctuation risks. There is also a technical rebound demand in the futures market [16][21]. 3.3 Summary - Different market participants should choose strategies according to their own positions. Breeding enterprises can use far - month contracts to lock in profits and avoid price risks. Slaughter and trading enterprises can take advantage of the basis narrowing window. Investment participants should distinguish short - term fluctuations from long - term trends and wait for a better layout window after substantial de - stocking, focusing on leading indicators such as the actual decline in breeding sow inventory, the recovery of average hog slaughter weight, and changes in piglet prices [22].

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp decline in precious metal prices on March 23 was due to the continuous escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, which led to high oil prices and market concerns about interest rate hikes, causing a sell - off in the precious metal market. However, as the market panic eased at night, precious metal prices rebounded [6]. - In the short term, with the temporary alleviation of market panic, precious metal prices are expected to stabilize, but the market may remain highly volatile due to the unstable Middle - East geopolitical situation, so investors are advised to trade with light positions. In the long term, the long - term allocation value of gold still exists, and central banks and institutions may continue to buy gold, which can support precious metal prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - On March 23, 2026, London gold spot was at $4211.63/ounce, London silver spot was at $62.72/ounce, COMEX gold was at $4215.50/ounce, and COMEX silver was at $62.96/ounce. Compared with March 20, 2026, the prices of gold and silver decreased, with gold down about 9.8% - 9.9% and silver down about 12.2% - 12.5% [5]. - For domestic futures, AU2604 was at 940 yuan/gram and AG2604 was at 15498 yuan/kilogram on March 23, 2026, with a decline of about 9.5% and 12.5% respectively compared to March 20, 2026 [5]. Spread/Ratio - On March 23, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 1.01 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 134 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 20, 2026, the spreads increased, with the gold spread up 40.3% and the silver spread up 148.1% [5]. - The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 60.65 and the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 66.96 on March 23, 2026, with increases of 3.4% and 2.7% respectively compared to March 20, 2026 [5]. Position Data - As of March 20, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1056.99 tons, with a decrease of 0.48% compared to March 19, 2026. The silver ETF - SLV was 15248.90453 tons, with an increase of 0.41% [5]. - For COMEX gold non - commercial positions, the long - position quantity was 215961 contracts, the short - position quantity was 56092 contracts, and the net long - position quantity was 159869 contracts as of March 20, 2026. Compared with March 19, 2026, the long - position quantity increased by 0.24%, the short - position quantity increased by 7.22%, and the net long - position quantity decreased by 2.00% [5]. - For COMEX silver non - commercial positions, the long - position quantity was 31125 contracts, the short - position quantity was 9244 contracts, and the net long - position quantity was 21881 contracts as of March 20, 2026. Compared with March 19, 2026, the long - position quantity decreased by 6.55%, the short - position quantity increased by 5.91%, and the net long - position quantity decreased by 10.97% [5]. Inventory Data - On March 23, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 106746.00 kilograms, with a decrease of 0.09% compared to March 20, 2026. SHFE silver inventory was 364549.00 kilograms, with an increase of 0.57% [5]. - On March 20, 2026, COMEX gold inventory was 32054275 troy ounces, with no change compared to March 19, 2026. COMEX silver inventory was 332695255 troy ounces, with a decrease of 0.59% [5]. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 23, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.90, with an increase of 0.21% compared to March 20, 2026 [5]. - On March 20, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.51, with an increase of 0.33% compared to March 19, 2026. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, with an increase of 2.37%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.39%, with an increase of 3.29% [5]. - The VIX was 26.78 on March 20, 2026, with an increase of 11.31% compared to March 19, 2026. The S&P 500 was 6506.48, with a decrease of 1.51%, and NYMEX crude oil was 98.09, with an increase of 3.70% [5]. Market Review - On March 23, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 8.62% to 940 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 11.67% to 15411 yuan/kilogram [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of low terminal marine fuel demand, the spot price spread of Singapore's 0.5% sulfur marine fuel oil has dropped nearly 25% weekly, and the Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is showing weakness. Although the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has blocked Middle - East oil transportation and high freight rates have curbed European arbitrage cargoes, Singapore's downstream market supply is still relatively sufficient. Shipowners are reducing purchases due to high fuel prices. The market expects the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils to narrow to some extent, and the overall price will fluctuate with crude oil. FU2605 is expected to operate in the 4550 - 4750 range, and LU2605 in the 5200 - 5400 range [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The report provides the latest information on fuel oil, including fundamental analysis, price data, and market expectations. The overnight Trump's remarks led to a significant adjustment in oil prices, and fuel oil followed suit. High - sulfur fuel oil performed slightly better than low - sulfur. The market is worried about supply issues, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is firm. Some Asian refineries have cut production due to crude oil supply shortages, and the ship - refueling market is taking a cautious approach [3] 3.2 Multi - and Short - Side Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Middle - East situation turmoil and poor strait passage [4] - **Likely Negative Factors**: The Trump administration's new policies and upstream crude oil being under pressure [4] - **Market Driver**: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Fundamentals**: Weak Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure due to low terminal demand; Singapore's downstream supply is relatively sufficient despite transportation disruptions [3] - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 775.09 dollars/ton with a basis of 360 yuan/ton; low - sulfur is 950.21 dollars/ton with a basis of 646 yuan/ton, and the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: Singapore fuel oil inventory on March 18 was 2486.9 barrels, an increase of 37 barrels [3] - **Market Chart**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [3] - **Main Position**: High - sulfur main positions are short, with short positions decreasing; low - sulfur main positions are long, with long positions decreasing [3] 3.4 Spread Data - **Futures Spread**: The price of the FU main contract futures increased by 166 to 4940, a 3.48% increase; the LU main contract futures price increased by 44 to 5821, a 0.76% increase. The FU basis decreased by 54.26 to 360, a 13.10% decrease; the LU basis decreased by 409 to 646, a 39% decrease [5] - **Spot Spread**: The prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur, Zhoushan low - sulfur, Singapore high - sulfur, and Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oils increased, while Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased slightly, and Singapore diesel decreased. The increases were 2.25%, 2.02%, 5.22%, 5.92% respectively, and the decreases were - 0.03% and - 0.66% respectively [6] 3.5 Inventory Data - The inventory data of Singapore fuel oil from January 7, 2026, to March 18, 2026, shows fluctuations. The inventory on March 18 was 2486.9 barrels, an increase of 37 barrels compared to the previous period [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: After a sharp fall, copper prices are expected to enter a bottom - seeking phase with support below but lack of upward drivers. The strategy is to shift from being cautiously bearish to range - bound operations and gradually build long positions at key support levels, focusing on the performance in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton. The main factors affecting copper prices are the US - Iran conflict and inventory changes. [1] - **Aluminum**: Overseas raw material cost support is weakening, and after the release of domestic production increase and the arrival of a large amount of imported alumina, the inventory is under pressure. If there is no unexpected geopolitical disturbance, the short - term aluminum price will be mainly in a weak adjustment. Attention should be paid to the approaching time of the de - stocking inflection point. [2] - **Nickel**: Due to the tight supply of nickel ore and rising freight, the price of nickel ore is rising. The operation can refer to short - term long opportunities based on the cost line, but short - term attention should be paid to overseas geopolitics and market sentiment. The expected supplementary quota in July and the large inventory pressure of primary nickel will also put pressure on nickel prices. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Copper - Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, and SHFE copper opened higher and fluctuated strongly. The domestic refined copper import window remained open. - Market sentiment was affected by the US - Iran conflict. Trump's attitude change reversed the market decline. - LME inventory increased by 5,125 tons to 347,475 tons; Comex inventory decreased by 1,121 tons to 532,947 tons; SHFE copper warrants decreased by 13,737 tons to 274,115 tons; BC copper warrants decreased by 1,050 tons to 14,086 tons. - After the copper price decline, downstream replenishment demand increased, and social inventory decreased rapidly. [1] Aluminum - Overnight alumina fluctuated weakly, AO2605 closed at 3,021 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.76%. SHFE aluminum fluctuated strongly, AL2605 closed at 23,750 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.57%. - The spot price of alumina rebounded, and the aluminum ingot spot discount narrowed. The processing fees of some aluminum products changed. - Overseas raw material cost support weakened, and the inventory was under pressure. The market's core contradiction shifted, and the short - term aluminum price was expected to adjust weakly. [1][2] Nickel - Overnight LME nickel rose 1.87% to $17,200/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.71% to 134,990 yuan/ton. - LME inventory decreased by 720 tons to 282,792 tons, and SHFE warrants increased by 942 tons to 57,632 tons. - The price of nickel ore continued to rise due to tight supply and rising freight. The demand side showed some changes, and the operation could refer to short - term long opportunities based on cost. [3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - copper, waste copper, and downstream products decreased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and SHFE warrants decreased by 13,737 tons. The social inventory decreased by 27,000 tons. [4] - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. [4] - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and SHFE warrants decreased by 198 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly, and that of alumina increased by 40,000 tons. [5] - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased slightly. The inventory of LME decreased, and SHFE warrants increased by 942 tons. The social inventory of nickel increased by 959 tons. [5] - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased slightly. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and SHFE increased by 793 tons. The social inventory decreased by 9,500 tons. [7] - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 1.5%. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and SHFE decreased by 2,472 tons. [7] 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts to analyze the spot premium, SHFE near - far month spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profit of various non - ferrous metals from 2019 to 2026. [8][9][16][23][29][35][41]

Group 1: Index Trends - On March 23, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.63% to close at 3813.28 points, with a trading volume of 1086.248 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.76% to close at 13345.51 points, with a trading volume of 1345.27 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell 4.81% with a trading volume of 505.938 billion yuan. The opening price was 7632.97, the closing price was 7409.11, the highest price was 7712.04, and the lowest price was 7357.7 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index fell 4.11% with a trading volume of 451.939 billion yuan. The opening price was 7623.24, the closing price was 7440.75, the highest price was 7708.43, and the lowest price was 7399.04 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index fell 3.17% with a trading volume of 173.993 billion yuan. The opening price was 2847.52, the closing price was 2792.33, the highest price was 2847.78, and the lowest price was 2779.6 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index fell 3.17% with a trading volume of 173.993 billion yuan. The opening price was 2847.52, the closing price was 2792.33, the highest price was 2847.78, and the lowest price was 2779.6 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 374.32 points from the previous closing price, and sectors such as electronics significantly pulled the index down [2]. - The CSI 500 Index dropped 319.29 points from the previous closing price, and sectors such as electronics significantly pulled the index down [2]. - The SSE 300 Index dropped 149.02 points from the previous closing price, and sectors such as banking, non - banking finance, and electronics significantly pulled the index down [2]. - The SSE 50 Index dropped 91.53 points from the previous closing price, and sectors such as banking, electronics, and non - banking finance significantly pulled the index down [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 had an average daily basis of -51.53, IM01 had -116.68, IM02 had -220.43, and IM03 had -432.93 [10]. - IC00 had an average daily basis of -52.72, IC01 had -108.46, IC02 had -207.07, and IC03 had -384.6 [10]. - IF00 had an average daily basis of -21.84, IF01 had -41.55, IF02 had -81.0, and IF03 had -166.93 [10]. - IH00 had an average daily basis of -3.28, IH01 had -6.29, IH02 had -19.33, and IH03 had -53.1 [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the iron ore market is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of iron ore is relatively abundant, but there are structural contradictions. After the Two Sessions, steel mills' blast furnaces resumed production, and the hot metal output increased significantly, leading to an increase in the rigid demand for raw material ore. Considering the high - level port inventories, the slight increase in steel mill inventories, and the tight geopolitical situation in the Middle East driving up shipping costs, the iron ore market is expected to maintain an oscillating and bullish trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the actual restocking situation of steel mills [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - From March 16th to March 22nd, the global iron ore shipping volume was 31.443 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 955,000 tons. Australian shipping volume was 19.957 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.204 million tons; Brazilian shipping volume was 5.489 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 227,000 tons; non - mainstream ore shipping volume was 11.611 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 686,000 tons. The total arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 22.716 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 566,000 tons [3] - As of March 20th, the daily average output of iron concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 475,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 141,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 60.81%, a week - on - week increase of 1.81%. The mine concentrate inventory was 1.0047 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 111,900 tons [3] - The shipping volume of FMG to China continued to rise, while that of BHP slightly declined. The shipping volumes of RT and VALE also slightly declined [42][46] - Ocean freight rates remained at a high level, and the arrival volume slightly increased, maintaining a medium level [50][54] Demand - In the week of March 20th, the daily average hot metal output was 2.2815 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 695,000 tons. After the Two Sessions, steel mills' blast furnaces gradually resumed production, and the increment of hot metal output significantly increased, leading to an increase in the rigid demand for raw material ore compared with the previous period [3] - The profit of steel mills' blast furnaces was relatively stable [63] Inventory - The inventory of imported ore slightly declined this period, with the number of ships at the port decreasing by 10 to 100. The port congestion continued to decrease, the arrival volume increased, the port inventory slightly declined but remained at a high level, and the steel mill inventory slightly increased, maintaining a low - inventory strategy, but the rigid - demand procurement increased [3] - The inventory of Australian ore at ports was at a high level, while the inventory of Brazilian ore slightly declined. The inventory of coarse powder at ports slowly decreased from a high level, and the inventory of lump ore was relatively stable [82][90] - The steel mill inventory slightly increased from a low level [99] Price and Spread - The spot price was oscillating with a bullish bias [5] - The spread between high - grade and medium - grade ores continued to widen, while the spread between medium - grade and low - grade ores narrowed. The spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder rebounded [10][14] - The 5 - 9 spread slightly rebounded, and the basis of the 05 contract slightly declined [18] - The screw - to - ore ratio slightly declined from a low level, and the ore - to - coke ratio declined from a high level [28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The core pricing lines of the global market in 2026 are as follows: Overseas, the "Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)" balance between the US and Iran restricts the escalation of the conflict, but the secondary inflation risk from oil prices is reversing the global liquidity expectations, and the Fed's policy path is becoming more divergent. Domestically, Chinese assets have a triple safety premium, but the A-share market is still in a risk release stage. The core investment strategy in 2026 is "defense and counterattack" [2]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: News drives the market. Fed officials have different views on interest rate hikes and cuts. The situation in the US - Iran conflict is complex, with Trump claiming progress in negotiations while Iran denying it [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Trump's claim of progress in US - Iran dialogue led to a drop in the US dollar index, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar. Short - term export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy [3]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market fell due to liquidity shocks and geopolitical uncertainties. With the easing signal of the Middle East situation, the stock index may rebound, but the trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the sharp fall of the A - share market, the bond market may rebound. It is recommended to use grid operations, sell high - position long orders in a timely manner, and gradually build long positions if the price continues to fall [6]. - **Container Shipping (Europe Line)**: The futures market is in a high - level volatile state, with a game between geopolitical emotions and the off - season fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock in the short term [7][9][10]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: It fluctuates sharply in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. In the medium and long term, the demand for lithium carbonate in downstream industries still has a strong support [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: It is affected by the callback cycle of the non - ferrous metal sector. In the long run, the demand for these two products will improve as the photovoltaic industry develops [14][15]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After a sharp fall, the copper price rebounded. It is recommended to pay attention to the upper pressure when the price rebounds. If it fails to break through with heavy volume, the market may be volatile [17][18][19]. - **Zinc**: It was affected by systematic risks and rebounded slightly at night. It is expected to be weak in the short term due to inventory and macro factors [20]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel showed certain resilience. The supply of sulfur in the nickel industry chain is affected by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and there is a game between supply and macro - level factors [21][22]. - **Tin**: It followed the sector down and rebounded at night. It is expected to be weak in the short term and the long - term center of gravity may move upward [23]. - **Lead**: It oscillated and adjusted. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory operation under the pressure of inventory accumulation and cost support [24]. Oils and Fats & Feed - **Oilseeds**: The relaxation of Brazil's quarantine process affected the market. It is recommended to enter the market for reverse arbitrage between monthly spreads [25][26]. - **Oils**: The prices of oils fluctuated with crude oil. It is necessary to focus on the biofuel policies of Indonesia and the US this week [27]. Energy and Oil & Gas - **SC Crude Oil**: The crude oil price dropped sharply due to Trump's remarks. The negotiation situation is uncertain, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate between $80 - 120 [29][30][31]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly, and the low - sulfur fuel oil was dragged down by weak demand. The market's strength slowed down, but the price decline space is limited [32]. - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical disturbances are the core factors. The supply of asphalt is reduced, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to control positions and pay attention to combination strategies [33]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: They continued to decline under pressure. It is recommended to maintain a strategic long - position view on precious metals, and pay attention to position control [35][36][37]. - **Gold & Silver**: They had a V - shaped reversal. It is recommended to maintain a strategic long - position view, and they may oscillate at a low level in the short term [38][39]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp spot price rose, and the market is expected to be neutral in the short term. Both pulp and offset paper futures can maintain interval trading [41][42]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The market fluctuated due to the changeable attitude of the US. They are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the geopolitical situation is uncertain [43][44]. - **LPG**: The futures price rose sharply due to capital emotions. The market is expected to return to the fundamental logic, and the short - term price may oscillate at a high level [45][46][47]. - **Methanol**: The price was affected by the Iran - US situation. It is recommended to conduct a 5 - 6 reverse arbitrage and a 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [49]. - **PP & Propylene**: The night - session price fell due to the news of US - Iran negotiations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51][52]. - **Plastic**: The night - session price fell with the oil price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [53][54][55]. - **Rubber**: Synthetic rubber fluctuated greatly, and natural rubber rose slightly. Synthetic rubber is expected to maintain a strong wide - range shock, and natural rubber is expected to oscillate and stabilize [61][62]. - **Glass & Soda Ash**: Soda ash has a high supply pressure, and glass is restricted by supply recovery expectations and high intermediate inventories [63][64][65]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The cost of raw materials supports the steel price, but the high inventory of hot - rolled coils limits the upward space. The short - term price may rebound, but the height is limited [66][67]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is a mix of long and short factors. The price is supported in the short term but is under pressure in the medium and long term [68][69]. - **Coking Coal**: The price increase is mainly due to market expectations. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and consider short - selling near - month contracts lightly if the price rises to a certain range [70]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They are supported by cost and oscillate strongly. The impact of the hurricane on manganese ore production areas needs attention [70][71]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The futures price continued to fall. It is recommended to sell the call options of the main contract [73]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price has support below. It is necessary to pay attention to the export situation of US cotton [73][74][75]. - **Sugar**: The short - term sugar price may maintain an oscillatory pattern [76][77]. - **Eggs**: The egg price rebounded. It is recommended to sell the call options of the main contract [78]. - **Apples**: The futures market is driven by fundamentals and delivery logic, and the 05 contract is expected to maintain a strong oscillatory pattern [85][86]. - **Peanuts**: The futures price may fall if the Middle East situation eases. It is recommended to short lightly [87][88]. - **Red Dates**: The price may oscillate at a low level due to sufficient supply and weak demand [89]. - **Logs**: The spot price is firm, and the inventory is consumed. It is recommended to hold long positions in the early stage, reduce long - position holdings, and use interval trading and short - term short - selling strategies [90][91].

2026-03-24原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2605： 1.基本面：伊朗周一否认与美国进行过谈判。此前，美国总统特朗普称与不具名伊朗官员进行了"富有成效" 的会谈，并据此将其对伊朗电力网络实施轰炸的威胁推迟；美国能源部长赖特表示，在对伊战争背景下，战 略石油储备有可能会再次释放，但他认为这种可能性极低。赖特认为，霍尔木兹海峡受阻对全球能源流动造 成的冲击将是"短期性的"，且当前能源价格尚未上涨到足以引发燃料消费明显下降的程度；俄罗斯在波罗 的海的两座石油装运港口普里莫尔斯克和乌斯季卢加22日至23日凌晨间遭到乌克兰无人机袭击；中性 2.基差：3月23日，阿曼原油现货价为170.05美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货 ...