LPR连续9个月保持不变，专家：二季度全面政策性降息或有望落地 2月24日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2026年2月贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为： 1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。自2025年5月下调 后，LPR报价已连续9个月保持不变。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，2月两个期限品种的LPR报价保持不变，符合市场预期。 王青分析，在年初结构性货币政策工具先行降息之后，二季度全面的政策性降息有可能落地，并带动 LPR报价跟进下调，进而引导企业和居民贷款利率下行。这是2026年促消费扩投资、有效对冲外需放缓 的一个重要发力点。 第 562 期 2026-02-24 焦点关注 宏观动态 央行公开市场单日净回笼9264亿元，明日开展6000亿元MLF操作 2月24日，中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了5260亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40%，与此前持平。Wind数据显示，今日有8524亿元7天期和6000亿元14天期逆回购到期，单日净回 笼9264亿元。 同日，央行公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2月25日将以固定数量 ...

票息行情未止：接续力量和可挖掘的标的 [Table_Authors] 张紫睿(分析师) 信用债市场周度回顾 260223 本报告导读： 下一步承接力量为配置盘打底+交易盘接力，短端和科创债值得挖掘。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | 1. | 票息行情未止：接续力量和可挖掘的标的 3 | | --- | --- | | 2. | 信用债市场周度回顾 4 | | 2.1. | 一级发行：净融资大幅减少 4 | | 2.2. | 二级交易：成交量基本持平，利差多数下行 5 | | 2.3. | 信用评级调整及违约跟踪 7 | | 3. | 风险提示 7 | | | 021-23185652 | | --- | --- | | | zhangzirui@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040068 | | | 王宇辰(分析师) | | | 010-83939801 | | | wangyuchen4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523020004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 春节期间需关注的几件事 ——海外篇 2026.02.22 M2- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Travel increased significantly during the Spring Festival in 2026, with 5.5 billion cross - regional trips during the first 21 days of the Spring Festival travel rush, a 6% year - on - year increase. The daily flow exceeded 300 million after February 18, and approached 400 million on February 22 [1][11]. - Policies such as "Happy Shopping during the Spring Festival" drove strong consumption. The average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises in the first four days of the Spring Festival holiday increased by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025. The passenger flow and turnover of 78 key pedestrian streets (business districts) monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased by 4.5% and 4.8% respectively in the first three days of the holiday [1][14]. - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled the IEEPA tariffs illegal, but Trump ordered a 15% tariff on all imported goods. The U.S. Q4 GDP growth rate was only 1.4%, and the core PCE was 3%, higher than the previous value [1][19]. - During the Spring Festival, most major global assets rose. Crude oil and natural gas in commodities increased significantly, and the stock markets in South Korea, the Eurozone, and the UK rose by 5.5%, 2.4%, and 2.3% respectively, while the Hong Kong stock market underperformed, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 2.8% [2][19]. - The capital market remained stable, and the bond market may fluctuate. The 10Y Treasury bond rate broke below 1.8% before the holiday, and the further downward space of interest rates is limited. It is recommended to focus on coupon strategies and opportunities for narrowing spreads [2][20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - Before the holiday, institutional willingness to hold bonds increased, and the central bank's net injection led to a decline in bond yields. The 10Y and 30Y Treasury bond yields decreased by 2bp and 0.5bp respectively. The bond market showed different trends on different days of the week [10]. - The Spring Festival travel rush had a large passenger flow, and consumption was strong. Movie box office and real - estate sales had different performances. Overseas, the U.S. economy slowed down, and inflation remained high [11][14][19]. - The capital market remained stable, and the bond market may fluctuate. It is necessary to pay attention to policy expectations during the Two Sessions, external tariff changes, and the equity market [20]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Capital Market - The central bank's net injection before the holiday was 139.69 billion yuan. After the holiday, the maturity volume of reverse repurchase was larger. The capital interest rate decreased, and the 3M certificate of deposit issuance rate and FR007 - 1Y swap rate showed different trends [28][29]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Bond yields declined before the holiday. Except for the 3m Treasury bond, the yields of other key - term Treasury bonds decreased. Most of the term spreads of Treasury bonds widened [38]. - The spread between new and old 10Y Treasury bonds continued to decline, and the negative spread of 10Y China Development Bank bonds widened. The spread between the second - active and active 30Y Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly [40]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - As of February 14, the weekly turnover rate of 30Y Treasury bonds decreased, the 50Y - 30Y and 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond spreads widened, the inter - bank leverage ratio decreased to 107.3%, the exchange leverage ratio increased to 123.5%, the median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds decreased, and the median duration of interest - rate bond funds increased slightly. The implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds widened [45]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - The net financing of interest - rate bonds increased before the holiday. The net financing of Treasury bonds and local government bonds decreased, while that of policy - financial bonds increased. The issuance scale of Treasury bonds will increase in the last week of February, and that of local bonds will decrease [61][64][65]. - The inter - bank certificate of deposit changed from net financing to net repayment before the holiday, and the average issuance rate decreased slightly [66]. 3.3 Economic Data - The Spring Festival month - shift affected the CPI decline, and the PPI improved year - on - year. The financial data in January had a stable start [70]. - Since February, movie consumption was weaker than the seasonal level, and the freight rate index improved marginally. Real - estate transactions were weak, and industrial production weakened marginally [71]. - Recent infrastructure and price high - frequency data showed that production indicators decreased month - on - month, and most price indicators weakened [75]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - The U.S. core PCE returned to 3%, and the economic growth rate slowed down. The Fed had different views on future policies [80]. - The U.S. bond market declined, and emerging markets had more declines than increases. The spread between Chinese and U.S. 10Y Treasury bonds narrowed [81][83]. 3.5 Major Assets - The CSI 300 index rose slightly before the holiday. Shanghai gold rose, and the Nanhua crude oil index adjusted. The performance of major assets was: CSI 1000 > Shanghai gold > Convertible bonds > CSI 300 > Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds > China bonds > Shanghai copper > Rebar > U.S. dollar > Live pigs > Crude oil [87]. 3.6 Bond Market Calendar - There are reverse repurchase maturities, MLF maturities, and government bond issuances from February 24 to February 28. There are also important economic data releases and corporate earnings calls during this period [92].

证券研究报告｜资产配置跟踪周报 2025 年 2 月 24 日 大同证券研究中心 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号： S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号 山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址： 新年新气象 市场或迎"暖春" 【20260209-20260215】 核心观点 大类资产总览：节前仍显波动，但暖意初现。 节前一周，权益市场波动幅度仍然较大，叠加前期获利资金 的了结与板块的轮动，市场经历了频繁且大幅的波动，这种 波动在节前稍显缓和，但依旧存在，在长假期带来的不确定 性中，场内资金仍处于分歧与调整的阶段。但同样也可以看 出，在历经了为期两周的调整后，节前市场虽有波动，但暖 意初现，一方面，场内成交金额持续维持较高区间，对市场 形成有效支撑；另一方面，投资者虽对长假期所带来的短期 不确定性有一定担忧，但中长期对市场依然有较大信心，因 此，前期的回调并未对市场引起较大的扰动。而债市则迎来 短期"蜜月周期"，资金面的持续宽松和权益市场、商品市 场逸散的低风险资金，都为债市短期是上行带来了充足的资 金补充。商品市场仍在回落，贵金属前期过 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the event disturbances during the Spring Festival holiday do not strongly drive a comprehensive market rise. The market may continue its characteristics of structural differentiation and high - level volatility. The logic of price increases due to anti - involution, geopolitical disturbances, and supply - demand mismatches in the AI supply chain will run through the whole year. Attention should be paid to long - position opportunities in细分 fields. However, the Two Sessions will be held on March 4th, and the detailed 15th Five - Year Plan will be finalized, which means that the policy - favorable expectations for technology and growth will be realized. One needs to beware of the decline risk after the growth style's good news is exhausted. With the in - depth and continuous promotion of anti - involution policies, the demand side will stabilize under the tone of fiscal stimulus and economic recovery. The reversal of the supply - demand contradiction may consolidate the performance inflection point of leading industry companies. Focus on the mid - stream industries with profitability repair and ROE improvement [3][14]. - The bond market has both bullish and bearish factors. After the Spring Festival, the concentrated maturity of reverse repurchases may put some pressure on short - term market liquidity, but the central bank is likely to maintain a supportive attitude, and the liquidity disturbance is probably controllable. The supply pressure of local bonds will decrease after the festival. However, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has fallen below 1.8%, and the resistance to further decline has increased. The purchasing power of institutional allocation funds may decline after the festival, and the market game will intensify before the Two Sessions with a low probability of interest rate cuts. Although the relative value of coupon allocation still exists, the downward space for bond yields of various maturities may be limited [4][15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1. Equity Market Review and Observation - During the week before the Spring Festival holiday (2026.02.09 - 2026.02.13), the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.36%, the CSI 500 rose 1.88%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.22%. The market had some enthusiasm, but the sentiment was restrained, and the trading volume did not effectively increase, remaining at around 2 trillion. The rebound hotspots were concentrated in the TMT and media industries. Pan - technology stocks were significantly repaired, and there was a concentrated rise in sub - directions such as diesel generators and gas turbines related to the North American computing power power outage. The market was still mainly characterized by a structural trend, and all market mainlines were basically centered around the AI narrative [12]. - During the Spring Festival holiday, the US tariff unconstitutional ruling and the Middle East situation injected new uncertainties into the market. The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's imposition of reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was unconstitutional. Trump's administration then announced a 10% temporary tariff on imported goods for 150 days starting from February 24th and later proposed to raise it to 15%. The US - Iran negotiation was completed without a substantial agreement, and Trump threatened a "limited - scale" military strike on Iran. The release of the US December PCE inflation data and the Fed's FOMC meeting minutes weakened the market's expectation of an optimistic Fed interest rate cut [13]. - Domestically, the long - holiday consumption data was mixed. The travel traffic reached a new high, highlighting the prosperity of the service - based tourism consumption economy, but there was internal structural differentiation. The overall consumption showed the characteristics of increasing volume but decreasing price, and traditional consumption in areas such as film and real estate was weak, while consumption in areas such as return - home tourism, outbound tourism under visa - free policies, and smart wearable devices was strong. The popularity of humanoid robots and AI applications during the Spring Festival Gala is expected to continuously boost the market's enthusiasm for technology [14]. 1.2. Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - In the week before the Spring Festival holiday (2026.02.09 - 2026.02.14), the bond market performed well. The yield of the 1 - year Treasury bond decreased by 0.62BP to 1.31%, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond decreased by 2.03BP to 1.79%, and the yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond decreased by 0.50BP to 2.25%. Driven by the pre - holiday allocation demand, the bond market continued its oscillatory recovery trend [15]. - The US Treasury yield curve flattened last week (2026.02.09 - 2026.02.23). The 1 - year US Treasury yield rose 5BP to 3.50%, the 2 - year yield fell 7BP to 3.43%, and the 10 - year yield fell 19BP to 4.03%. The decline in long - term US Treasury yields was mainly due to the speech of the National Economic Council Chairman suggesting a possible downturn in the employment market and the lower - than - expected CPI growth in January, which reduced inflation expectations. Although the January employment data was better than expected, as the US stock market continued to weaken and market risk appetite decreased, some funds flowed into the bond market, leading to a significant decline in long - term US Treasury yields [17]. - The CSI REITs Total Return Index rose 0.41% during the week before the Spring Festival holiday (2026.02.09 - 2026.02.13), closing at 1047.08 points, with most sectors rising, especially in consumption and data centers. In the primary market, 4 new public REITs made progress last week: Huatai Three Gorges Clean Energy REIT was under feedback, CITIC Construction First Agricultural Food Group Commercial Real Estate REIT and Guotai Haitong Chongbang Commercial Real Estate REIT were accepted, and AVIC Beijing Changbao Rental Housing REIT was under inquiry [17]. 2. Fund Index Performance Tracking 2.1. Equity Strategy Theme - Based Index - **Active Stock Fund Selection Index**: The index selects 15 funds each period, with equal - weight allocation for each fund. The core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability within value, balanced, and growth styles, and the style distribution is roughly balanced according to the style distribution of the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI). The performance benchmark is the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI) [21][22]. 2.2. Investment Style - Based Index - **Value Stock Fund Selection Index**: The value style includes both deep - value and quality - value styles. The index selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [25]. - **Balanced Stock Fund Selection Index**: Balanced - style fund managers balance the valuation and growth of individual stocks and switch to more cost - effective stocks when the cost - performance of held stocks decreases. The index selects 10 relatively balanced and value - growth style funds based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [25]. - **Growth Stock Fund Selection Index**: The growth style aims to capture the double - click opportunities of performance and valuation of high - growth companies and discover "dark - horse" companies in high - potential fields. The index selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth Index (H30355.CSI) [28]. 2.3. Industry Theme - Based Index - **Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection Index**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). Funds with an average purity of no less than 60% in the past 3 years or since establishment are selected. An evaluation system is established, and 15 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [31][32]. - **Consumption Stock Fund Selection Index**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, Commerce and Retail, Consumer Services, Textile and Apparel, Food and Beverage, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery). Funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the past 3 years or since establishment are selected. An evaluation system is established, and 10 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the consumption theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [32]. - **Technology Stock Fund Selection Index**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Electronics, Communications, Computer, Media). Funds with an average purity of no less than 60% in the past 3 years or since establishment are selected. An evaluation system is established, and 10 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [36]. - **High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection Index**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Construction, Light Industry Manufacturing, Machinery, Power Equipment and New Energy, National Defense and Military Industry, Electronics, Communications). Funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the past 3 years or since establishment are selected. An evaluation system is established, and 10 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [41]. - **Cyclical Stock Fund Selection Index**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Petroleum and Petrochemical, Coal, Non - ferrous Metals, Steel, Building Materials, Basic Chemicals, Banks, Non - bank Finance, Real Estate, Comprehensive Finance). Funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the past 3 years or since establishment are selected. An evaluation system is established, and 5 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [44]. 2.4. Money - Market Enhancement Index - **Money - Market Enhancement Strategy Index**: The index aims at liquidity management, pursuing a curve that surpasses money - market funds and is smooth and upward. It mainly allocates money - market funds with relatively good performance and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds among passive index - bond funds. The performance benchmark is the CSI Money - Market Fund Index (H11025.CSI) [46]. 2.5. Pure - Bond Index - **Short - Term Bond Fund Selection Index**: The index aims at liquidity management, pursuing a smooth and upward curve while ensuring drawdown control. It mainly allocates 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute - return ability. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short - Term Pure - Bond Fund Index + 50% * Ordinary Money - Market Fund Index [50]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection Index**: The index invests in medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, pursuing stable returns while controlling drawdowns. It aims for excess returns relative to the medium - and long - term bond fund index and a stable upward net - value curve. It selects 5 funds each period, balancing coupon strategies and band - trading operations, adjusting the duration and the ratio of credit - bond funds and interest - rate - bond funds according to market conditions [51]. 2.6. Fixed - Income Plus Index - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection Index**: The equity center of the index is positioned at 10%. It selects 10 fixed - income plus funds each period, focusing on those with an equity center (total equity position considering convertible - bond and stock holdings) of less than 15% in the past three years and recently. It considers both the risk - return ratio and the holding experience. The performance benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index + 90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [55]. - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection Index**: The equity center of the index is positioned at 20%. It selects 5 fixed - income plus funds each period, choosing those with an equity center between 15% and 25% in the past three years and recently. It focuses on the risk - return ratio and selects funds with certain performance elasticity. The performance benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index + 80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [58]. - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection Index**: The equity center of the index is positioned at 30%. It selects 5 fixed - income plus funds each period, choosing those with an equity center between 25% and 35% in the past three years and recently. It focuses on the risk - return ratio and selects funds with certain performance elasticity, mainly screening for funds that can obtain stable returns on the bond side without credit downgrading and have strong stock - picking ability and offensive ability on the equity side. The performance benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index + 70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [61]. 2.7. Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - **Convertible - Bond Fund Selection Index**: The index selects bond - type funds with the average proportion of convertible - bond investment in bond market value of no less than 60% in the latest period and no less than 80% in the past four quarters as the sample space. An evaluation system is established from the fund - product, fund - manager, and fund - company dimensions, considering factors such as long - and short - term returns, drawdowns, risk - adjusted returns, and the timing and bond - selection abilities of fund managers. Five funds are selected to form the index [64]. - **QDII Bond Fund Selection Index**: The underlying assets of QDII bond funds are overseas bonds, covering regions such as the world, Asia, and emerging markets, with investment targets including Chinese - funded US dollar bonds and US dollar bonds. According to credit ratings, they are usually divided into investment - grade and high - yield products. Six funds with stable returns and good risk control are selected to form the index [67]. - **REITs Fund Selection Index**: The underlying assets of REITs are mainly mature, high - quality, and stable - operating infrastructure projects with relatively clear cash - flow expectations and relatively limited unit - net - value volatility. Ten funds with stable operations, reasonable valuations, and certain elasticity are selected to form the index according to the underlying asset types [68].

Group 1 - The core distinction between government bonds and corporate bonds lies in credit risk, with government bonds backed by national credit and having a very low default risk due to strict issuance and repayment mechanisms established by financial market regulations revised in 2025 [1] - Corporate bonds, on the other hand, are subject to the financial health and operational stability of the issuing companies, which can lead to default risk if companies face declining profitability or excessive debt burdens [1] - Interest rate risk affects both types of bonds, but government bonds typically exhibit less price volatility compared to corporate bonds due to their higher credit ratings and more rigid market demand [1] Group 2 - Government bonds demonstrate superior liquidity, being actively traded in the open market with a diverse range of participants, allowing for quick transactions at reasonable prices [2] - In contrast, corporate bonds' liquidity is influenced by factors such as issuance scale and credit ratings, with smaller issuers potentially facing higher transaction costs or difficulties in executing trades [2] - The repayment risk at maturity is significantly lower for government bonds, as their repayment is secured by stable fiscal revenues, whereas corporate bonds depend on the issuing company's cash flow, which can lead to potential payment failures [2] Group 3 - Policy risk impacts government and corporate bonds differently, with government bonds being less affected by macroeconomic policy adjustments aimed at market stability, while corporate bonds may be influenced by specific industry or tax policies that could affect the issuer's performance [2]

新华财经北京2月24日电（王菁）随着春节假期结束，债券市场正式步入丙午马年的交易时段。尽管节 前在央行流动性呵护下，10年期国债收益率一度下破1.8%的关键点位，但节后市场正面临超2.7万亿元 公开市场到期、税期与跨月重叠等多重因素的考验。 超2.7万亿资金回笼压境，流动性能否平稳"过关"？ 春节后首个交易周，市场即将迎来流动性的"压力测试"。多位市场分析人士指出，本周公开市场到期规 模创下近年新高，叠加税期走款等因素，资金面难免出现波澜。 近日，新华财经综合多家机构观点后发现，虽然节后资金面难免承压，但投资者对债市后市并不悲 观，"逢调整布局"、"继续保持多头思维"成为主流策略。 华西证券研究所首席经济学家刘郁测算，2月24日至28日，央行公开市场操作合计到期27024亿元，为 2019年以来节后首周到期规模的最高点。其中，仅节后前两个交易日的到期规模就分别高达14524亿元 和8500亿元。具体来看，7天逆回购到期8524亿元，14天逆回购到期14000亿元；MLF到期3000亿元； 国库定存到期1500亿元。 除了公开市场到期的"洪峰"，税期与跨月的重叠也是扰动因素之一。受春节假期影响，2月税期申报截 ...

在股市下挫引发避险需求之际，德国国债随其他欧洲政府国债上涨，不过涨幅落后于美国国债和英国国 债。人工智能可能对全球经济多个领域构成的潜在风险仍是关注焦点。 英国国债牛市趋平，推动10年期英债收益率跌至2024年12月以来最低水平。 英国央行利率决策者Alan Taylor表示，美国关税对全球贸易和英国通胀带来的冲击将持续多年 市场： 德国国债收益率跌2个基点，至2.72%。 德债期货涨22个点，至129.56。 意大利10年期国债收益率跌2个基点，至3.32%。 意大利-德国国债利差变化不大，报61个基点。 法国10年期国债收益率跌2个基点，至3.28%。 10年期英国国债收益率跌3个基点，至4.32%。 上个马年沪指涨近60%！新年新福利来了，炒股排面要拉满，新号启幸运>> Ifo研究所公布的德国企业信心调查对市场影响有限；该指数报90.5，略高于预估中值。 上个马年沪指涨近60%！新年新福利来了，炒股排面要拉满，新号启幸运>> 责任编辑：李桐 在股市下挫引发避险需求之际，德国国债随其他欧洲政府国债上涨，不过涨幅落后于美国国债和英国国 债。人工智能可能对全球经济多个领域构成的潜在风险仍是关注焦点。 Ifo研 ...

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 23 日 [Table_Title] 节后债市应对指南 （一）2 月利率破位下行，三股推力 2 月以来，债市延续强势行情，10 年国债收益率成功突破 1.80%阻力位，由 1.81%下行至 1.78%。期间交易 型品种表现更为突出，5 年、30 年国债收益率均下行 4bp 至 1.54%、2.25%，5 年、7 年、10 年国开债收益率分 别下行 5bp、6bp、4bp 至 1.74%、1.86%、1.95%，3 年、5 年二级资本债收益率降幅更是达到 5bp、8bp。 长端利率超预期突破箱体的背后，主要有三股推力。首先是配置盘供需错位叙事或仍在延续。尽管 2 月政府 债发行速度较 1 月边际提升，单月净供给规模由 1.18 万亿元提升至 1.38 万亿元，但银行负债或始终处于相对充裕 的状态。2025 年 12 月与 2026 年 1 月，大型银行境内存款增幅分别为 1.59、4.17 万亿元，远超过去五年同期季 节性均值 0.03、2.75 万亿元；中小型银行增幅分别为 1.21、2.44 万亿元，同样位于历史同期高位水平。叠加 ...

债 券 研 春节期间不可错过的事情 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 国内篇 本报告导读： 经济复苏节奏延续温和，呵护债市偏多环境，但需关注海外风险偏好回升带来的扰 动。 投资要点： 风险提示：流动性超预期收紧；经济修复大幅加速；债券供给放量。 | | | | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 孙越(分析师) | | | 021-38031033 | | | sunyue6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525080004 | | | 汤志宇(分析师) | | | 021-38031036 | | | tangzhiyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070031 | | | 杜润琛(分析师) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525110004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 央行视角下的货币财政协同与存款搬 ...