Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" concept is experiencing a temporary pullback, but this does not fundamentally change the valuation logic driven by policies aimed at regulating industry competition and promoting technological upgrades [1][3]. Market Performance - Coal ETF (515220) fell over 3%, Steel ETF (515210) dropped over 2%, while Building Materials ETF (159745) and Photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) decreased nearly 1.5% [1]. - The market's pullback is seen as a release of high market sentiment rather than a reversal of underlying valuation logic [1]. Policy Implications - The core of the "anti-involution" policy focuses on standardizing industry competition, eliminating inefficient capacity, and reshaping the profit model of cyclical industries [1]. - Historical data shows that during the last supply-side reform from February 2016 to the end of 2017, the building materials industry rose by 45.75%, steel by 41.61%, and coal by 31.55% [1]. Investment Opportunities - Coal ETF (515220) has a market size exceeding 7 billion, tracking the China Coal Index [4]. - Steel ETF (515210) has surpassed 3 billion in size, tracking the China Steel Index [4]. - Building Materials ETF (159745) is the largest in its category with a size of 1.49 billion, tracking the China Building Materials Index [4]. - Photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) has seen a net inflow exceeding 200 million for five consecutive days, tracking the China Photovoltaic Industry Index [4]. Economic Outlook - Citic Securities indicates that "anti-involution" may help stabilize the decline in PPI, and with demand-side expansion policies, a low-price state may be overcome [3]. - Huatai Securities suggests maintaining flexibility in trading strategies due to various events in August, while focusing on the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies in the medium term [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bullish [3] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish, but need to be aware of correction risks [8] Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, with positive macro - factors, improved supply - demand fundamentals, and price increases in downstream products, the industrial silicon price has room for further growth if it is benchmarked against the full cost [3]. - For polysilicon, after the continuous increase in spot prices, they have stabilized. The futures price is above the full cost of most enterprises, and there may be room for growth if considering the recovery of storage, merger, and acquisition funds. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [8]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On July 22, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price hit the daily limit. The main contract 2509 opened at 9345 yuan/ton and closed at 9655 yuan/ton, a change of 5.98% from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2509 was 380961 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50053 lots, a decrease of 88 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon rose. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton), and the price of 421 silicon was 9800 - 10100 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Consumption Side**: Affected by the strong drive of industrial silicon on the cost side and the supply concerns caused by an incident at a Shandong organic silicon factory, the prices of organic silicon products increased across the board. For example, the market price of DMC rose to 11600 - 12500 yuan/ton, an increase of about 1200 yuan/ton [2]. Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On July 22, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures hit the daily limit, opening at 45880 yuan/ton and closing at 49105 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 8.99% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 192179 lots, and the trading volume on that day was 757482 lots [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 24.90 (a month - on - month change of - 9.78%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.02GW (a month - on - month change of - 5.70%) [6]. Strategy Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish, but need to be aware of correction risks - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [8][9] Influencing Factors Industrial Silicon - The resumption of production and new capacity in the Northwest and Southwest regions [5] - Changes in the start - up of polysilicon enterprises [5] - Policy disturbances [5] - Macro and capital sentiment [5] - The start - up situation of organic silicon enterprises [5] Polysilicon - The impact of industry self - regulation on the start - up of upstream and downstream enterprises [9] - The driving effect of futures listing on the spot market [9] - The impact of capital sentiment [9] - Policy disturbances [9]

Group 1: Current Inflation Status - The CPI in June 2025 increased by only 0.1% year-on-year, significantly below the 2% inflation target[3] - The PPI in June 2025 dropped to -3.6%, marking the lowest level in the year and continuing a negative trend for 33 consecutive months[3][19] - Key factors contributing to low CPI include weak performance in food and energy prices, underestimating the impact of "de-real estate," and weak demand for durable goods and services[3][15][18] Group 2: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to have a weaker impact on inflation compared to "capacity reduction" policies, as it focuses on market mechanisms rather than administrative measures[3][26] - CPI recovery to above 2% is anticipated to be slow due to ample supply and underappreciated real estate factors[3][29] - PPI is projected to turn positive by Q2 2026, with a forecasted year-end PPI of -1.3% in 2025[3][29] Group 3: Risks and Market Dynamics - Risks include unexpected downturns in the real estate market and insufficient policy effectiveness[3][29] - The relationship between PPI and commodity prices is crucial, with coal, rebar, lithium carbonate, copper, pork, and crude oil being significant influencers[3][20][22] - Recent commodity price trends show a decline in coal and rebar prices, while copper has shown signs of recovery[3][22]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese economy** and the **supply-side reform** initiatives, particularly focusing on the **steel**, **cement**, and **photovoltaic glass** industries. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Economy**: Despite the U.S. imposing tariffs on multiple countries, the market's reaction has been muted. However, the long-term effects on U.S. corporate profits and inflation are expected to be significant post-Q3 2023, necessitating vigilance from companies regarding potential risks [1][3][21]. 2. **Differences in Supply-Side Reform 2.0**: The current supply-side reform differs from the 2015-2018 reforms in its broader scope, complexity due to international factors, and emphasis on institutional adjustments for long-term stability [1][4][5][17]. 3. **Economic Performance in H1 2025**: China's economy showed resilience with a GDP growth exceeding 5%, driven by export activities and policy support. However, challenges are anticipated in H2 2025 due to supply-demand imbalances and deepening deflation [1][8][9]. 4. **Sector-Specific Production Cuts**: The steel industry plans to cut production by approximately 30 million tons, while the cement industry has a reduction plan set to begin in November 2024. The coal industry is unlikely to be involved in this round of reforms due to electricity safety concerns [1][10][11][12]. 5. **Challenges in the Photovoltaic Industry**: The photovoltaic glass sector is currently facing losses, with leading companies beginning to reduce production. The industry struggles with low concentration and weak demand, making comprehensive supply-side reform a lengthy process [1][13][30][31]. 6. **External Demand Pressures**: China faces external demand pressures from high tariffs, potential declines in exports to the U.S., and a global trade cycle downturn, which could impact economic growth and inflation [1][18][19]. 7. **Stock Market Outlook**: The Chinese stock market has entered a volatile phase since June, with recommendations to focus on A-shares while maintaining caution towards Hong Kong stocks. The long-term impact of supply-side reforms is expected to be positive for the overall stock market [2][20][25][27][28]. 8. **Future Economic Predictions**: The macroeconomic outlook for 2025 and 2026 suggests a potential deflationary environment, but successful supply-side reforms could lead to upward risks in economic growth [1][29]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Institutional Adjustments Needed**: The current reform emphasizes the need for institutional changes, including local government fiscal systems and social security frameworks, to achieve sustainable development [1][5][36]. 2. **Market Reaction to Policy Changes**: The market's response to new tariff policies has been characterized by investor fatigue, indicating a desire for clarity and stability in trade relations [1][22]. 3. **Long-Term Investment Strategies**: The call suggests a cautious approach to investments in the short term, with a focus on individual A-share opportunities, while the overall market is expected to improve in terms of investment returns over the next 6 to 12 months [1][24][28].

棒杰股份（002634）公告，预计2025年1月1日至2025年6月30日期间，归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 亏损1.2亿元至1.8亿元，扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为亏损8800万元至1.48亿元，基本每股收益为亏 损0.26元/股至0.39元/股。公司表示，亏损主要原因是光伏板块子公司债务压力及停产影响，以及公司 对因供应商、金融机构等债务逾期的违约责任计提了预计损失。 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, reversing from a decline of 0.1% in May, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.1% for the first half of the year[1][2] - The main drivers for the CPI increase were a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in vegetable prices and a rise in domestic energy prices due to international crude oil price increases[2][3] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, showed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.4%, indicating a weak overall price level[3][6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In June 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, widening from a decline of 3.3% in May, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.8% for the first half of the year[1][2][8] - The PPI decline was primarily influenced by weak domestic demand and oversupply, leading to accelerated price declines in coal, steel, and cement[2][9] - The PPI's month-on-month decline remained at 0.4%, consistent with the previous month, marking four consecutive months of such a decline[8][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the CPI may return to negative territory in July, likely around -0.2%, due to external economic pressures and high base effects from the previous year[7][12] - The PPI is expected to continue its month-on-month decline in July, but the rate of decline may slightly narrow, with a year-on-year decline projected to remain around -3.6%[12]

Group 1: Company Overview - The report highlights that the company, Aisuo Co., Ltd. (爱旭股份), has received approval for a private placement of funds, which is expected to alleviate its financial pressure significantly [1] - The company's asset-liability ratio reached 86.0% in Q1 2025, and the estimated fundraising of 3.5 billion RMB is projected to reduce this ratio by 9.6 percentage points [1] - Following a 40% increase in stock price since the rating upgrade on April 30, the report suggests that the current valuation is no longer attractive, leading to a downgrade to a neutral rating [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The report anticipates that over 40% of the company's ABC components will be sold in higher-priced overseas markets in Q2, which is expected to significantly reduce losses for the quarter [1] - Recent statements from central government officials emphasize the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, indicating a potential turning point for the photovoltaic supply side [1] Group 3: Stock and Valuation - The closing price of Aisuo Co., Ltd. is reported at 14.63 RMB, with a target price raised to 16.50 RMB, indicating a potential upside of 12.8% [1] - The report notes that further valuation improvement is contingent upon the implementation of substantial policies [1]

Group 1 - The market focus is on leading stocks, with Huayin Power experiencing a 2.99% increase and achieving 5 consecutive trading days of gains [1][2] - Solid-state battery concept stock Dadongnan has seen a 1.53% rise, marking 7 gains in 11 days [1][2] - The PCB sector's Jin'an Guoji has reached a trading limit increase of 9.99%, marking its 4th consecutive gain [1][2] Group 2 - Steel stock Liugang shares opened lower with a 1.15% decrease, despite having 5 gains in 6 days [1][2] - Other notable stocks include Honghe Technology with a 2.33% increase and 4 gains in 6 days, and Huaguang Huaneng with a 0.59% rise and 4 gains in 4 days [1][2] - The packaging and printing sector's Senlin Packaging opened with a 0.91% increase, while the photovoltaic sector's Yamaton and Yijing Optoelectronics saw minor increases of 0.28% and 1.66% respectively [1][2]

Core Insights - The conference focused on "Zero Carbon Collaborative Innovation Empowering Global Sustainability," highlighting the importance of sustainable practices and the role of ISSB standards in integrating sustainability into financial reporting [1][2]. Group 1: ISSB Standards and Sustainable Development - Zhang Zhengwei, a senior advisor to ISSB, emphasized the shift from non-financial to integrated financial reporting, which will embed sustainability into core business value creation [2]. - Ndidi Nnoli-Edozien discussed the significance of multi-stakeholder collaboration in advancing global sustainability, with China's involvement being crucial for developing impactful global standards [5]. Group 2: Industry Contributions to Sustainability - Tinci Lithium's Vice President Zou Jun outlined the lithium industry's role in achieving net-zero goals through technological innovation and sustainable financial tools, aiming for a 2030 emission reduction target [3]. - Zhang Guohao from China Southwest Construction shared a new model for integrated low-carbon building renovation services, addressing the disconnect in financing, design, construction, and operation phases [4]. Group 3: Collaborative Initiatives and Agreements - The "Xinglong Lake Sustainable Consensus" was signed by multiple organizations, promoting zero-carbon technology innovation and ecological construction in the Xinglong Lake area [8]. - The "Supply Chain ESG Management Initiative" expanded to include four new companies, enhancing its influence and supporting the establishment of ESG assessment standards in supply chains [9]. Group 4: Discussions on ESG and Climate Action - A roundtable discussion highlighted the importance of standardization in ESG disclosures and the integration of carbon management across enterprises and cities, which is vital for global zero-carbon transitions [10][11]. - The role of ISSB standards in reshaping global value chains was discussed, emphasizing their function in enhancing corporate governance and competitive advantage through sustainable practices [12].

Group 1: Economic Policy and Trends - The central government is reinforcing "anti-involution" policies to address low nominal economic growth and persistent negative PPI, focusing on eliminating low-price competition and overcapacity[1] - The manufacturing sector's capacity utilization rate was 74.10% at the end of Q1 2025, significantly below the historical average of 7.1% since 2018[16] - The PPI growth rate for coal mining and washing, general equipment, specialized equipment, automotive, and pharmaceuticals is at historically low levels, indicating potential "involution" issues in these sectors[17] Group 2: Industry Impact and Investment Opportunities - Key industries identified for "anti-involution" measures include coal mining, chemical raw materials, non-metallic minerals, and automotive manufacturing, which are expected to undergo significant policy scrutiny[17] - Recent price recovery in coal, rebar, and polysilicon suggests that the market has priced in expectations of "anti-involution" policies, presenting potential investment opportunities if policies align with market expectations[28] - If "anti-involution" policies fall short, there is a risk of price corrections in these industries, necessitating caution for investors[28] Group 3: Risks and Economic Challenges - The report highlights external uncertainties, including global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, which could exacerbate economic challenges[4] - The need for coordinated demand expansion policies alongside supply-side reforms is emphasized to mitigate potential structural pain in industrial production and employment[27] - The real estate sector is undergoing significant adjustments, impacting overall investment momentum and economic growth prospects[27]