Report on the Rubber Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that rubber prices will oscillate weakly in the short term, with the 01 contract trading in the range of 15,000 - 16,500. The supply side is affected by the rainy season and typhoons in the producing areas, and the expected increase in raw material output in the future suppresses the raw material prices. The cost support has weakened, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, so the natural rubber inventory is unlikely to see a significant reduction. On the demand side, although some enterprises are short of goods, the overall sales performance is below expectations, and some enterprises may control production flexibly. As the holiday approaches, the risk - aversion sentiment of funds increases, and the macro - sentiment of commodities weakens [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 100 yuan to 14,700 yuan, a decline of 0.68%. The basis of whole - milk rubber decreased by 65 to - 835. - The price of Thai - standard mixed rubber decreased by 250 yuan to 14,750 yuan, a decline of 1.67%. The non - standard price difference decreased by 215 to - 785, a decline of 37.72%. - The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market decreased by 0.60 Thai baht per kilogram to 51.05 Thai baht per kilogram, a decline of 1.16%. The FOB intermediate price of glue in the international market increased by 0.10 to 56.30, an increase of 0.18% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 to 15, a decline of 50.00%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 to 5, a decline of 66.67%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 25 to - 20, an increase of 55.56% [1]. Production and Consumption Data - In July, Thailand's production was 421,600 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons or 1.61% compared with the previous month. Indonesia's production was 197,500 tons, an increase of 21,300 tons or 12.09%. India's production was 45,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons or 2.17%. China's production was 101,300 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons [1]. - The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles was 73.66%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points. The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles was 65.66%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points. In August, domestic tire production was 10.2954 million tons, an increase of 859,000 tons or 9.10%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 63.01 million pieces, a decrease of 3.64 million pieces or 5.46% [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory decreased by 10,020 tons to 592,275 tons, a decline of 1.66%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1,411 tons to 44,553 tons, a decline of 3.07% [1]. Report on the Glass and Soda Ash Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - **Soda Ash**: The fundamental problem of over - supply still exists. Although the manufacturers' inventory has decreased recently, the inventory has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The weekly production remains high, and the over - supply still exists compared with the current rigid demand. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity withdrawal or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - **Glass**: The spot market has good transactions, and the inventory has decreased this week. However, the inventory of some middle - stream enterprises in some regions remains high. The deep - processing orders have improved seasonally but are still weak, and the operating rate of low - emissivity (Low - E) glass is continuously low. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the completion volume is shrinking. The industry needs to clear production capacity to solve the over - supply problem. It is necessary to track the implementation of regional policies and the inventory - replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Spread - **Glass**: The price of glass 2505 increased by 15 yuan to 1343 yuan, an increase of 1.13%. The price of glass 2509 increased by 18 yuan to 1405 yuan, an increase of 1.30%. The 05 basis decreased by 15 to - 193, a decline of 8.43%. - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash 2505 increased by 7 yuan to 1407 yuan, an increase of 0.50%. The price of soda ash 2509 increased by 12 yuan to 1454 yuan, an increase of 0.86%. The 05 basis decreased by 7 to - 107, a decline of 7.00% [3]. Supply - The soda ash mining rate decreased by 2.02 percentage points to 85.53%. The weekly production of soda ash decreased by 15,000 tons to 745,700 tons, a decline of 2.02%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 1,000 tons to 159,500 tons, a decline of 0.47%. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [3]. Inventory - The glass inventory decreased by 675,000 tons to 60.908 million tons, a decline of 1.10%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 42,000 tons to 1.7556 million tons, a decline of 2.33%. The soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 614,900 tons, an increase of 10.69% [3]. Real - Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 0.09%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points compared with the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate of construction area was 0.05%, a decrease of 2.43 percentage points. The year - on - year growth rate of completion area was - 0.22%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The year - on - year growth rate of sales area was - 6.55%, a decrease of 6.50 percentage points [3]. Report on the Log Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View As the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season approaches, it is necessary to observe whether the shipment volume improves significantly. The current average daily shipment volume is still below 70,000 cubic meters. The price below 800 yuan per cubic meter has a high "receiving value". In the current pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - The price of log 2511 increased by 3.5 yuan to 805 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.44%. The price of log 2601 increased by 2 yuan to 818.5 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.24%. The price of log 2603 increased by 1 yuan to 825 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.12%. The price of log 2605 remained unchanged at 828 yuan per cubic meter [4]. - The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 15 to - 15. The 11 - 03 spread increased by 2.5 to - 20. The 11 - contract basis decreased by 3.5 to - 55. The 01 - contract basis decreased by 66.5 to - 68.5 [4]. Import Cost and Shipping - The import theoretical cost was 796.96 yuan, an increase of 0.37 yuan, an increase of 0%. - The number of ships departing from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 3 to 44, a decline of 6.38% [4]. Inventory and Demand - The total inventory of coniferous logs in China increased by 80,000 cubic meters to 3.02 million cubic meters, an increase of 2.72%. - The average daily shipment volume of logs increased by 0.17 million cubic meters to 6.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 3% [4]. Report on the Industrial Silicon Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View From a fundamental perspective, from September to October, as the supply of industrial silicon increases, the balance will gradually become looser. The expectation of large - scale production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan silicon enterprises during the flat - and - low - water period is at the end of October, so the expected surplus in October is more obvious and will narrow again in November. At the same time, the increase in production costs in the southwest during the flat - and - low - water period raises the average industry cost, giving positive sentiment to the market. It is expected that the industrial silicon price will continue to lack upward driving force in the short term and may turn to oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan per ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the production - cut rhythm of silicon - material enterprises and Sichuan and Yunnan industrial silicon enterprises in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8,350 yuan. The basis decreased by 400 to 45, a decline of 89.89%. - The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,600 yuan. The basis decreased by 97 to - 202, a decline of 380.95%. - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon remained unchanged at 8,800 yuan. The basis decreased by 400 to 295, a decline of 57.55% [5]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 35 to - 50, a decline of 233.33%. The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 5 to - 390, a decline of 1.30%. The 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 5 to 5. The 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 30 to 10, an increase of 150.00% [5]. Fundamental Data - **Production**: The national industrial silicon production was 385,700 tons, an increase of 47,400 tons or 14.01%. Xinjiang's production was 169,700 tons, an increase of 19,400 tons or 12.91%. Yunnan's production was 58,100 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons or 41.19%. Sichuan's production was 53,700 tons, an increase of 5,200 tons or 10.72% [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The national operating rate was 55.87%, an increase of 3.26 percentage points or 6.20%. Xinjiang's operating rate was 60.61%, an increase of 8.02 percentage points or 15.25%. Yunnan's operating rate was 47.39%, an increase of 14.50 percentage points or 44.09%. Sichuan's operating rate was 44.29%, an increase of 7.33 percentage points or 19.83% [5]. - **Downstream Production**: The production of organic silicon DMC was 223,100 tons, an increase of 23,300 tons or 11.66%. The production of polysilicon was 131,700 tons, an increase of 24,900 tons or 23.31%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy was 615,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or - 1.60%. The export volume of industrial silicon was 74,000 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons or 8.32% [5]. Inventory Change - The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 0.13 tons to 12.04 tons, a decline of 1.07%. The factory - warehouse inventory in Yunnan increased by 0.16 tons to 3.10 tons, an increase of 5.45%. The factory - warehouse inventory in Sichuan increased by 0.01 tons to 2.29 tons, an increase of 0.44%. The social inventory increased by 0.40 tons to 54.30 tons, an increase of 0.74% [5]. Report on the Polysilicon Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the industry self - discipline meeting was held again to discuss the self - discipline process. Some leading enterprises have production - cut plans in the future. The increase in downstream prices, the meeting, and the low inventory of some enterprises (the inventory distribution among enterprises is uneven) provide support for the price increase of polysilicon enterprises. Currently, low - price resources in the polysilicon market are scarce and are being snapped up, while high - price resources still face some resistance from downstream. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 50 yuan to 52,650 yuan, an increase of 0.10%. The average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 49,500 yuan. The basis of N - type material increased by 555 yuan to - 50, an increase of 91.74% [6]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The price of the main contract decreased by 505 yuan to 52,700 yuan, a decline of 0.95%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 130 to 120, an increase of 1300.00%. The spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract decreased by 50 to - 2590, a decline of 1.97% [6]. Fundamental Data - **Weekly Data**: The production of silicon wafers was 13.92 GW, an increase of 0.04 GW or 0.29%. The production of polysilicon was 3.10 kilotons, a decrease of 0.02 kilotons or - 0.64%. - **Monthly Data**: The production of polysilicon was 131.7 kilotons, an increase of 24.9 kilotons or 23.31%. The import volume of polysilicon was 0.11 kilotons, an increase of 0.03 kilotons or 40.30%. The export volume of polysilicon was 0.22 kilotons, an increase of 0.01 kilotons or 5.96%. The net export volume of polysilicon was 0.11 kilotons, a decrease of 0.02 kilotons or - 14.92% [6]. Inventory Change - The inventory of polysilicon decreased by 1.5 kilotons to 20.4 kilotons, a decline of 6.85%. The inventory of silicon wafers increased by 0.32 GW to 16.87 GW, an increase of 1.93%. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 20 to 7900 hands, an increase of 0.25% [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in the Shandong market increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter compared to last week, while the price in the Jiangsu market remained flat. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply. - As of September 14, there were 21 ships departing from New Zealand in September, with 16 bound for mainland China and 5 for Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that 15 ships will arrive in September and 6 in October, with an estimated arrival of 1.41 million cubic meters in September. - As of the week of September 12, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port increased by 0.34 million cubic meters week - on - week, and that of Taicang Port increased by 0.07 million cubic meters week - on - week. The total inventory of the four major ports increased by 35,600 cubic meters compared to the previous week. - As of September 19, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 increased by 0.7% compared to last week, and the market showed a narrow - range oscillation. The fundamental situation maintained a marginal weak supply - demand pattern. [19] 3. Summary by Directory Overview - The spot price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong was 755 yuan/cubic meter, up 10 yuan/cubic meter from last week; in Jiangsu, it was 765 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40+ radiata pine in Shandong remained flat at 850 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were out of stock [4]. Supply - As of September 14, 21 ships departed from New Zealand in September, with 16 going to mainland China and 5 to Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that 15 ships will arrive in September and 6 in October, with an estimated arrival of 1.41 million cubic meters in September [5]. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of September 12, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 2.02 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.34 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 1.19 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.07 million cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.1379 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 10,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port's inventory was about 464,900 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 24,200 cubic meters), Xinminzhou's inventory was about 321,400 cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 51,200 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's inventory was about 154,700 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 52,600 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0789 million cubic meters, an increase of 35,600 cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][12]. Market Trends - As of September 19, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 805 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.7% from last week. The market showed a narrow - range oscillation, and the fundamental situation maintained a marginal weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spread changes this week were small [19]. Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter compared to last week, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged. The prices of other specifications and varieties in different regions showed little change or slight decreases compared to four weeks ago [22]. - **Regional Spread**: The report presents the price spreads of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu, such as the spread of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine between the two regions [25]. - **Tree Species and Specification Spread**: The report shows the price spreads between different specifications of radiata pine, such as the spread between 3.9 - meter 30+ and 40+ radiata pine [39]. Other - **Freight Index**: As of the week of September 21, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,203.00 points, up 77 points (+3.6%) from last week; the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 815 points, up 1.4% from last week; the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,198.21 points, down 14.3% from last week. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The US dollar - to - Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.115, down 0.1% week - on - week, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 1.7% to 1.707 [54].

| 象胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年9月17日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 9月16日 | 9月15日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 15150 | 15000 | 150 | 1.00% | | | 全乳基元 | -890 | -ddc | 105 | 10.55% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 15150 | 14950 | 200 | 1.34% | | | 非标价差 | -890 | -1045 | 155 | 14.83% | | | 杯胶：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 52.20 | 52.55 | -0.35 | -0.67% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 56.20 | 56.00 | 0.20 | 0.36% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 13200 | 13200 ...

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed little. The upstream cost side still provides support, while downstream players are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and the possible impact of the La Nina phenomenon on supply. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider short - selling; if not, the rubber price is expected to remain high [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 15, the price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from September 12. The full - latex basis decreased by 14.37%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 1.34%. The price of cup rubber in the international market decreased by 0.67%, while the price of glue increased by 0.36%. Some domestic raw material prices remained unchanged [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4.46%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 75.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.91% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, Thailand's production increased by 1.61%, Indonesia's by 12.09%, India's decreased by 2.17%, and China's decreased by 1.27%. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. Domestic tire production decreased by 8.16%, while tire exports increased by 10.51%. The total import of natural rubber increased by 2.47%, and the import of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 5.40%. The production cost of some dry rubbers in Thailand decreased, and the production margin of STR20 dry rubber increased by 16.72% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.64%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 1.30%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general - trade warehouses changed to varying degrees [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Soda Ash**: The overall sentiment of the commodity market has improved, and soda ash has rebounded due to macro - sentiment. However, the fundamental oversupply problem still exists. In the medium - term, downstream demand will remain at the previous rigid - demand level. After the traditional summer maintenance season, with high supply, if there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction, inventory will face further pressure. It is advisable to short on rebounds [3]. - **Glass**: The glass market has rebounded due to the improvement of the macro - atmosphere. Last week, the spot market had good transactions and inventory decreased. However, the inventory in the middle reaches has not been significantly reduced. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear excess capacity. Short - term: stay on the sidelines; medium - term: pay attention to the actual demand in the peak season [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract increased by 0.16%, and the glass 2509 contract decreased by 2.12% [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract increased by 0.66%, and the soda ash 2509 contract decreased by 0.37% [3]. - **Supply**: The soda ash开工率 increased by 1.24%, and the weekly production increased by 1.25%. The float - glass daily melting volume increased by 0.38%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.33%, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.35%, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 2.70%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [3]. - **Real - estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [3]. Group 3: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The log market shows a pattern of "weak supply and demand, stable prices, and slightly decreasing inventory". The core contradiction lies in the game between weak demand and fluctuating supply. Prices are temporarily stable with cost support. Follow - up attention should be paid to the improvement of shipment volume in the seasonal peak season. Currently, the 09 contract has new registered warehouse receipts, and the spot market pressure has increased. It is recommended to go long on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 15, the log 2509 contract decreased by 0.39%, the log 2511 contract increased by 0.81%, and the log 2601 contract decreased by 1.15%. The prices of some spot logs remained unchanged [4]. - **Supply**: In August, the port shipping volume decreased by 3.87%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38%. As of September 12, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 302 million cubic meters, an increase of 8 million cubic meters from the previous week. The expected number of New Zealand log ships arriving at 13 Chinese ports this week decreased by 50% compared with last week, and the arrival volume also decreased by 50% [4]. - **Demand**: As of September 12, the daily log outbound volume was 6.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.17 million cubic meters from the previous week [4]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The cost of industrial silicon is expected to rise as raw material prices increase and the electricity price in the southwest region will go up during the dry season. Although the current output of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance. Considering the possible impact of the polysilicon enterprise self - discipline meeting next week and the increasing demand for downstream replenishment before the National Day, the price of industrial silicon may rise slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips, but also be aware of the inventory and warehouse - receipt pressure. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Main - contract Basis**: On September 15, the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 12.09%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 122.22%. The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon increased by 0.58%, and the basis decreased by 0.76% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 99.77%, the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 1750.00%, the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 98.63%, the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 100.00%, and the 2602 - 2603 spread remained unchanged [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon output increased by 14.01%, Xinjiang's by 12.91%, Yunnan's by 41.19%, and Sichuan's by 10.72%. The national开工率 increased by 6.20%, Xinjiang's by 15.25%, Yunnan's by 44.09%, and Sichuan's by 19.83%. The output of organic silicon DMC increased by 11.66%, the output of polysilicon increased by 23.31%, the output of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 1.60%, and the export volume of industrial silicon increased by 8.32% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.93%, the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.62%, the Sichuan factory - warehouse inventory remained unchanged, the social inventory increased by 0.37%, the contract inventory decreased by 0.19%, and the non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.86% [5]. Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints In the short term, the market is more focused on the expectation of policy implementation in September, and the market is prone to rise and difficult to fall. Fundamentally, the overall supply reduction in September is not obvious as some factories resume production to make up for the supply reduction. The silicon wafer production schedule has increased slightly month - on - month, and there may be a slight inventory build - up in September. The downstream has accepted the price increase of polysilicon, and the spot transmission mechanism is smooth. In the future, the market pays less attention to fundamentals and more to policy expectations, so the price fluctuation risk is high. It is advisable to be cautious and follow the situation of the polysilicon enterprise self - discipline meeting next week [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 15, the average price of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type silicon wafer prices increased, with the 210mm silicon wafer increasing by 3.07% and the 210R silicon wafer increasing by 3.62%. Some battery and component prices remained unchanged [6]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract decreased by 0.12%. The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the month - on - first - continuous spread increasing by 100.22% [6]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The weekly silicon wafer output increased by 0.73%, and the weekly polysilicon output increased by 3.31%. The monthly polysilicon output increased by 23.31%, the import volume increased by 40.30%, the export volume increased by 5.96%, and the net export volume decreased by 14.92%. The monthly silicon wafer output increased by 6.24%, the import volume decreased by 15.41%, the export volume increased by 11.37%, and the net export volume increased by 15.56%. The silicon wafer demand increased by 0.14% [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.79%, the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 1.78%, and the polysilicon contract increased by 0.38% [6].

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The fundamentals of natural rubber (NR) have not changed significantly. There is still cost support from the upstream, while downstream players are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output during the peak season in the main production areas and whether the La Nina phenomenon affects the supply. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider short - selling at high levels; if the supply is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to remain high [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 11, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton or 1.00% from the previous day. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 15,000 yuan/ton. The basis of some varieties showed significant changes, such as the basis of Panjingxing, which decreased by 8.06% [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 82 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, up 22.22% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India showed different trends, with Thailand's production increasing by 1.61%, Indonesia's by 12.09%, and India's decreasing by 2.17%. China's production decreased by 1.30%. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in July decreased by 8.16%, while the tire export volume increased by 10.51%. The total import volume of natural rubber in July increased by 2.47% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.64%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 1.99%. The出库率 of warehouses increased due to downstream holiday stocking, and there is still an expectation of further inventory reduction [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint Currently, logs are in a volatile pattern. The spot market continues to weaken, and the enthusiasm of traders for imports has declined. The arrival volume remains low, and it is expected that the supply in September will continue to be at a low level. The inventory is low and has been decreasing for several consecutive weeks. The demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters but has not shown an obvious improvement trend. After entering the seasonal peak season, observe whether the shipment volume improves significantly. Currently, the valuation of the futures market is relatively low, and it is in a stage of volatile bottom - seeking. It is recommended to go long at low levels [3]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 11, the 2511 log contract closed at 804.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 2 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The new round of FOB quotes has loosened to the range of 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [3]. - **Supply**: Last week, the total arrival volume at 12 ports was about 170,000 cubic meters, a record low for the year. This week, 11 ships of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 12 ports in China, an increase of 6 ships from last week, and the total arrival volume is about 402,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 136% [3]. - **Demand**: The shipment volume last week decreased slightly but remained above 60,000 cubic meters. As of September 5, the average daily shipment volume of logs was 61,200 cubic meters [3]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will gradually increase during the dry season, which will lift the cost center of industrial silicon. Although the current production of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. From the supply - demand side, both supply and demand increased in August, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will be reduced. It is recommended to go long at low levels, but also pay attention to the inventory and warehouse receipts while production increases. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 11, the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 9,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton or 1.06% from the previous day. The basis of some varieties showed significant changes, such as the basis of SI4210, which increased by 38.46% [4]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5032.35% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The national industrial silicon production in the current period was 385,700 tons, an increase of 14.01% from the previous period. The production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan all increased. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 11.66%, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 1.60%. The industrial silicon export volume increased by 8.32% [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory increased by 0.37%, and the order - form inventory increased by 0.10% [4]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint In September, although there is some production reduction on the supply side, there are also factories resuming production to make up for the supply, so the overall supply reduction is not obvious. The silicon wafer production plan has increased slightly month - on - month, and the supply - demand situation in September may show a slight inventory accumulation pattern. Since late August, downstream players have carried out obvious inventory replenishment, and the price increase of polysilicon has been gradually accepted by the downstream, with a smooth spot price transmission mechanism. In the follow - up, the futures market pays less attention to the fundamentals and more to policy expectations. Short - term price fluctuations may be significant, so caution is required [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 11, the average price of N - type re - feedstock remained unchanged at 51,550 yuan/ton. The average price of N - type granular silicon also remained unchanged at 48,500 yuan/ton. The basis of N - type materials decreased by 61.80% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract price was 53,710 yuan/ton, up 1.56% from the previous day. The spreads between different contracts showed different degrees of change [5]. - **Fundamentals (Weekly)**: The silicon wafer production was 13.88 GW, an increase of 0.73% from the previous week; the polysilicon production was 31,200 tons, an increase of 3.31% [5]. - **Fundamentals (Monthly)**: The polysilicon production was 131,700 tons, an increase of 23.31% from the previous month. The polysilicon import volume increased by 40.30%, and the export volume increased by 5.96% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.79%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 1.78% [5]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint - **Soda Ash**: The futures market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range volatile pattern. The fundamental oversupply problem still exists. Although the inventory did not accumulate this week, it has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The previously reduced production capacity has resumed, and the weekly production has returned to a high level of 750,000 tons. In the medium - term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. After the traditional summer maintenance season in the soda ash industry, with high supply, if there is no actual capacity exit or production reduction in the future, the inventory will be further pressured. Follow the implementation of policies and the production adjustment of soda ash plants. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels when the price rebounds [6]. - **Glass**: The spot market had good trading this week, and the inventory decreased. At the beginning of the week, the news of the conversion of coal - gas production lines to clean energy in the Shahe area triggered a rise in the futures market. The specific conversion time is to be determined, and the expected shutdown time is limited. There are still some plans for production resumption and ignition in the future. Currently, the inventory of manufacturers in the Shahe area is gradually increasing, while the inventory in the middle reaches has not significantly decreased. In terms of industry supply - demand, the deep - processing orders have improved seasonally but are still weak, and the operating rate of low - emissivity glass has remained low, showing no obvious peak - season characteristics. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the completion volume is shrinking. Eventually, the industry needs to clear excess capacity. Follow the implementation of policies in different regions and the inventory replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches approaching the peak season. Short - term: stay on the sidelines; medium - term: pay attention to the actual peak - season demand [6]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On September 12, the price of glass 2505 was 1282 yuan/ton, up 0.23% from the previous day; the price of glass 2509 was 686 yuan/ton, down 0.60% [6]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The price of soda ash 2505 was 1359 yuan/ton, up 0.44% from the previous day; the price of soda ash 2509 was 1168 yuan/ton, up 0.44% [6]. - **Supply**: The soda ash operating rate was 86.22%, down 1.24% from the previous day. The weekly soda ash production was 761,100 tons, up 1.25%. The daily melting volume of float glass was 160,200 tons, up 0.38% [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory decreased by 2.33%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 1.35%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 2.70% [6]. - **Real - estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 0.09%, up 0.09% from the previous period; the growth rate of construction area was 0.05%, down 2.43% [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - The domestic bond market is expected to benefit from the relatively optimistic liquidity environment, and attention should be paid to the introduction of policies to promote service consumption [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and its short - term strengthening depends on the continuous improvement of internal and external environments [3]. - The phased correction of stock indices may be over, and they are expected to return to a relatively strong trend [3]. - The Treasury bond market should be operated with a band - trading strategy [5]. - The shipping index is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [11]. - Copper prices may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [15]. - Zinc should be on the sidelines for the time being [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively [19]. - Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply [19]. - Lead is expected to oscillate [22]. - Steel products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - Iron ore has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - It is recommended to lightly test long positions in ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. - Crude oil may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - LPG fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - PX - TA prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - MEG is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - It is recommended to hold long positions in methanol [39]. - PP has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - PE is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - PVC is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - Fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - Asphalt is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - Urea is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be relatively optimistic, which is beneficial to the bond market. Attention should be paid to policies to promote service consumption. Overseas, the long - term bond market has experienced a "Black September," and the focus is on the Fed's dot - plot [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by the US dollar index. It is expected to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic data [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The phased correction may be over, and stock indices are expected to return to a relatively strong trend due to the expected loosening of liquidity [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: A band - trading strategy is recommended [5]. - **Shipping Index**: It is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Weak employment data boosts recession trading. Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11]. - **Copper**: US non - farm data drags down copper prices, which may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [14][15]. - **Zinc**: It should be on the sidelines for the time being due to non - farm data falling short of expectations [16]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively, and attention should be paid to macro - level disturbances [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply, and a V - shaped rebound is expected [19]. - **Lead**: It is expected to oscillate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [21][22]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: It has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: It is recommended to lightly test long positions, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - **LPG**: It fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - **PX - TA**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to hold long positions [39]. - **PP**: It has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **PE**: It is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - **PVC**: It is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Pure Benzene & Benzene Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - **Asphalt**: It is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - **Urea**: It is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Views Macro and Financial Futures - Domestic supportive policies are gradually taking effect. In September, policies to promote service consumption will be the focus, which will support the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods to some extent, but the actual effect remains to be seen. Policies in the real - estate sector are advancing, but their impact on the overall market may be limited. The profitability of industrial enterprises has not been fundamentally improved. Overseas, the US economy and employment have shown resilience, and key economic data next week should be closely monitored [2]. - The core issue of the RMB exchange rate is the timing and pace of appreciation. In the short - term, the RMB is likely to appreciate, and the market may reach a "triple - price integration" pattern around 7.10. In the medium - term, the RMB needs a clear downward trend of the US dollar index and substantial positive changes in the domestic economy to achieve a trend - strengthening [4][5]. - As the 9.3 parade approaches, the stock index is expected to have increased volatility. The stock market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, while the bond market may expand its rebound space if the stock market experiences a high - level adjustment after September 3 [7][8]. Commodities Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and strong in the short - term. The focus should be on US economic data this week, and the strategy is to buy on dips [12][15]. - Copper is expected to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision on September 19, with a mid - term strategy of low - level procurement [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. Alumina is expected to be weakly volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - Zinc is expected to be strongly oscillating at the bottom in the short - term [23][24]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices rose under the influence of the Indonesian riot and strike. The short - term trend remains to be seen, depending on the development of the situation in Indonesia [24][25]. - Tin is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term due to tight supply [26]. - The lithium carbonate market is in an adjustment phase. If downstream demand is released, prices may be supported; otherwise, it may remain weakly volatile [26][28]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. The rise of polysilicon is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a possible storage platform in September [29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate within a narrow range, with limited upside and downside [30]. Black Metals - Steel products continue to accumulate inventory beyond the seasonal norm. If demand does not improve, the downward space of the steel futures market depends on the tolerance of steel mills for profit shrinkage. Short - sellers can consider reducing positions to take profits [32][33]. - Iron ore prices have released risks. After the short - term risk release, short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. - Coking coal may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillatory pattern in the short - term. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade. Unilateral speculation on short - selling coking coal is not recommended for now [37]. - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to oscillate at the bottom. It is advisable to go long on the spread between the two when the spread reaches - 400 [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is currently oscillating weakly. In September, the demand decline is a definite negative factor, and the market needs to wait for key events to clarify the direction. The overall outlook is bearish [42][43]. - Propylene's spot market is strong, and the futures market is oscillating. The northern market is tighter than the southern market [44][45]. - PX - TA's market is mainly characterized by structural contradictions. The overall pattern is "tight at the top and loose at the bottom," and the processing fee of PTA01 is recommended to be compressed when it is above 350 [46][49]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate between 4330 - 4550, and it is advisable to go long on dips [53]. - PP's supply is increasing, and the demand situation is unclear. Its future trend depends on whether downstream demand can maintain high - speed growth [54][55]. - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate for now [56][57]. - PVC's price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. With high inventory and weak demand, it is advisable to short - allocate it [58][59]. - Pure benzene is expected to be weakly oscillating, and for benzene - styrene, short - selling on the short - term single - side is not recommended. Wait for the end of the decline and then consider low - buying [60][61]. - Fuel oil has a weak rebound driven by cost, but the downward pressure remains. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows cost fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait for long - allocation opportunities [63][64]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate and strengthen, mainly following cost fluctuations. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance [65][66]. - Urea is in a stalemate. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Market Information - China's September 3 parade will last about 70 minutes. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization's Tianjin Summit has achieved eight results. There are various tariff - related news, including Trump's remarks on India's tariffs and possible US housing policies. There are also speculations about Fed officials' appointments [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1332, down 2 basis points, and the night - session was at 7.1375. The central parity rate was 7.1072, down 42 basis points. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August showed expansion [3]. Stock Index - The stock index rose with reduced volume yesterday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed up 0.60%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 483.37 billion yuan. The futures of stock index also rose with reduced volume. The 9.3 parade is approaching, and key economic data have been released [7]. Bond - Bond futures opened low and closed high on Monday. The yields of medium - and long - term bonds declined. The funding situation was loose, and DR001 dropped to 1.31%. Relevant policies and the end of the summer travel season have been reported [8]. Container Shipping - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) opened high and then oscillated. Spot prices of some shipping companies have changed. The Houthi armed forces' remarks have affected the market sentiment. The current market is in the off - season, and the SCFIS European line index has continued to decline [10][11]. Commodities Metals Gold and Silver - On Monday, the precious metals market continued to be strong. COMEX gold closed up 0.84% at 3545.8 dollars per ounce, and silver closed up 2.46% at 41.725 dollars per ounce. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and fund positions are stable. Key US economic data and events this week should be monitored [12][15]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index was slightly bullish on Monday. Chile's copper production in July increased slightly. The collapse of a copper mine in July and the reduction of production guidance in August have affected the market. The key factors affecting copper prices are complex, with both bullish and bearish factors in the short - to - medium - term [16][17]. Aluminum and Related Products - The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy have changed. The macro - environment is favorable for aluminum prices. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, and the supply of cast aluminum alloy may be affected by tax policies [19][22]. Zinc - The zinc price opened high and closed low. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is stable. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the trading strategy of selling the outer market and buying the inner market can be considered [23][24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of nickel rose, and stainless steel fell slightly. The spot prices of nickel - related products have changed. The market was affected by the Indonesian riot and strike, and the supply uncertainty has increased [24][25]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index slightly declined on Monday. Yunnan Tin's equipment maintenance and the decrease in refined tin production in August have affected the market. The short - term price may rise slightly due to tight supply [26]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell on Monday. The prices of lithium - related products in the spot market have declined. The supply has no new news, and the demand has marginal improvement expectations, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress the short - term price [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rose on Monday. The prices of related products in the spot market are stable. The rise of polysilicon is affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a storage platform [26][29]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply side is weak, and the demand is in a "peak - season not prosperous" situation. The domestic inventory is oscillating, and the LME inventory is high [30]. Black Metals Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The production of Tangshan's blast furnaces has been affected by inspections, and most are expected to resume production on September 4. The steel market is in a state of over - seasonal inventory accumulation, and the demand has not shown significant seasonal strength [32][33]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore fell and then rebounded. The global iron ore shipment volume in late August increased. The market is worried about the insufficient demand in the peak season, and short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke declined. The prices of coking coal in some regions have decreased. The downstream's replenishment of raw materials has slowed down, and the supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade [36][37]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - The production and demand of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed. The market was affected by the pre - parade steel mill restrictions and the decline of the "anti - involution" hype. The prices have fallen back, and the bottom support exists, but the upside is also under pressure [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The prices of US and Brent crude oil rose. There are news about the suspension of oil sales to an Indian refinery, the change in Shandong refineries' crude oil arrivals, and the expectation of OPEC+ to maintain production. The oil market is currently oscillating weakly, and the September demand decline is a negative factor [41][43]. Propylene - The futures prices of propylene rose slightly. The spot prices in different regions have changed. The supply and demand of propylene and its downstream products have changed. The spot market is tight, and the price is affected by multiple factors [44][45]. PTA - PX - The load of PX and PTA plants has changed. The supply of PX in September is expected to increase, and the PTA supply has decreased. The polyester demand has a marginal improvement, but the peak - season performance is not super - expected [46][48]. MEG - Bottle Chip - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports decreased. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol and related products have changed. The market is currently in a state of limited drive, and the price is expected to oscillate [50][53]. PP - The futures price of polypropylene decreased. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown a recovery trend. The inventory has decreased. The market is affected by new device production and the uncertainty of demand [54][55]. PE - The futures price of polyethylene decreased. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased. The current demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly [56][57]. PVC - The production of PVC in August and September is estimated. The demand is weak, and the export has changed. The inventory is accumulating, and the price has returned to the industrial fundamentals [58][59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in ports has increased. The supply and demand of both have changed, and the prices are expected to be volatile [60][61]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil rebounded weakly. The supply and demand of fuel oil have changed. The export in August decreased, and the demand is mixed. The market is still under pressure [62][63]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of low - sulfur fuel oil is mainly following cost fluctuations. The supply and demand and inventory of low - sulfur fuel oil have changed. The valuation is low, and it is advisable to wait for long - allocation opportunities [64]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt rose. The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance, and it mainly follows cost fluctuations [65][66]. Urea - The futures price of urea is in a stalemate. The spot price is stable, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views Rubber Industry - New rubber listing is slow, overseas ship arrivals are few, inventory may continue to decline, fundamentals remain strong, and there is still upward potential. The 01 contract range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500. Pay attention to the raw material supply during the peak production period in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider short - selling at high prices [1]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The cost of industrial silicon is rising, and there are news of capacity clearance. In August, supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. In the long - term, if some capacity is cleared, supply pressure will decrease. It is recommended to buy on dips, but be aware of the pressure from inventory and warehouse receipts [2]. Polysilicon Industry - In August, polysilicon supply and demand both increased, but the supply growth rate was higher, still facing inventory accumulation pressure. Future warehouse receipts are expected to increase. The price will mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy on dips, and consider short - selling by buying put options at high prices when volatility is low [4]. Log Industry - The current main contract is the 2511 contract, and the market value fluctuates around the delivery cost and receiving value. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally. The demand remains firm, and the inventory continues to decline. It is recommended to consider buying the 2601 contract on dips [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Soda Ash**: The market is in a weak and volatile state. There is no growth expectation for demand, and the inventory may be further pressured. It is recommended to hold short positions [6]. - **Glass**: The market is also in a weak and volatile state. The market has a negative feedback loop, with the near - term 09 contract facing weak reality and the far - term 01 contract facing weak expectations. High - level short positions can be closed for profit and wait for new driving factors [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan state - owned whole - grade rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained at 14,900 yuan/ton. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 21.51% to - 1045 yuan/ton. Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 1.02% to 14,850 yuan/ton [1]. Inter - monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3.14% to - 982 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5.88% to - 90 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 3.37% to 1075 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's production increased by 44.23% to 392,600 tons, Indonesia's production decreased by 12.03% to 176,200 tons, India's production increased by 30.82% to 62,400 tons, and China's production increased by 6.8 tons to 103,200 tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.36% to 72.77%, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 0.92% to 63.84%. In July, domestic tire production decreased by 8.16% to 94.364 million, tire exports increased by 10.51% to 66.65 million, and natural rubber imports increased by 2.47% to 474,800 tons [1]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory decreased by 0.50% to 616,731 tons, and the warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 3.47% to 44,857 tons [1]. Industrial Silicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passed S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 0.54% to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 12.26% [2]. Inter - monthly Spreads - The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 40.00% to - 35 yuan/ton, the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 33.33% to - 10 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - National industrial silicon production increased by 3.23% to 338,300 tons, Xinjiang's production decreased by 15.21% to 150,300 tons, Yunnan's production increased by 153.86% to 41,200 tons, and Sichuan's production increased by 31.05% to 48,500 tons. The national开工率 increased by 2.47% to 52.61%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 4.54% to 199,800 tons, polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 101,000 tons, and industrial silicon exports increased by 8.32% to 74,000 tons [2]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's inventory decreased by 0.83% to 119,100 tons, Yunnan's factory inventory decreased by 0.94% to 31,600 tons, and social inventory decreased by 0.37% to 541,000 tons [2]. Polysilicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feed material and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 49,000 yuan/ton and 46,000 yuan/ton respectively. The N - type material basis decreased by 314.52% to - 665 yuan/ton [4]. Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads - The main contract price increased by 2.00% to 49,665 yuan/ton. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 180.00% to - 80 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 6.53% to 31,000 tons, and monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 101,000 tons. Monthly polysilicon imports increased by 47.48% to 120 tons, exports decreased by 3.92% to 210 tons, and net exports decreased by 32.44% to 100 tons [4]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 14.46% to 213,000 tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 3.68% to 180,500 GW [4]. Log Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The log 2509 contract decreased by 0.25% to 790 yuan/cubic meter, the 2511 contract increased by 0.86% to 821.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 2601 contract increased by 1.03% to 836.5 yuan/cubic meter. The prices of main benchmark delivery spot products remained unchanged [5]. Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased to 7.149, and the import theoretical cost decreased to 814.95 yuan/cubic meter [5]. Monthly Data - Port shipments decreased by 1.51% to 1.733 million cubic meters, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 11.32% to 47 [5]. Inventory and Demand - As of August 22, the national coniferous log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, and the daily average log delivery volume was 64,500 cubic meters [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - related Prices and Spreads - North China, East China, Central China, and South China glass quotes remained unchanged. The glass 2509 contract decreased by 1.52% to 970 yuan/ton [6]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest soda ash quotes remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract increased by 0.29% to 1379 yuan/ton, and the 2509 contract decreased by 0.29% to 1187 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - Soda ash开工率 decreased by 6.79% to 82.47%, and weekly soda ash production decreased by 6.79% to 719,000 tons. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [6]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 1.64% to 62,566,000 heavy boxes, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.26% to 1.8675 million tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 0.89% to 500,700 tons [6]. Real Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%, the completion area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - Affected by the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, market sentiment is positive, driving up rubber prices. However, the trading atmosphere in the spot market has cooled, and tire factories are cautious about purchasing high - priced raw materials, limiting the upside of rubber prices. It is expected that rubber prices will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the 01 contract's range referring to 15,000 - 16,500. Follow the raw material supply situation during the peak production season in the main producing areas, and consider short - selling at high levels if the raw material supply is smooth [1]. Polysilicon - In August, the supply and demand of polysilicon both increased, but the supply growth rate was larger, still facing inventory accumulation pressure. The price will mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit likely to be between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. When the price is high, consider buying put options to short when the volatility is low [3]. Industrial Silicon - From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will gradually increase during the dry season, raising the cost center of industrial silicon. Although the current output of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. In August, supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will weaken. It is recommended to try long positions on dips, and the main price fluctuation range may be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. Logs - The current main contract has switched to the 2511 contract, and the disk valuation fluctuates around the delivery cost and the receiving value range. There is an expectation of marginal improvement in the follow - up fundamentals. The demand is currently firm, maintaining at the level of 60,000 cubic meters. The inventory continues to decline due to less unloading at ports and strong outbound volume. It is expected that the overall shipment in September will be the same as that in August. The new warehouse receipts being registered may suppress the disk. It is recommended to go long on dips [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The impact of the coking coal event is gradually weakening, and the futures market continues to weaken. The weekly output has rebounded significantly, and the inventory is in a continuous pattern. The current weekly output corresponds to an obvious excess of demand. In the medium - term, after the photovoltaic rush installation in the second quarter, the growth of photovoltaic glass capacity has slowed down, and the float glass capacity has remained flat. There is still pressure on supply and demand in the future, and there may be further cold - repair expectations. Therefore, there is no growth expectation for the overall demand of soda ash. It is recommended to hold short positions [7]. - **Glass**: The impact of the coking coal event is gradually weakening, and the futures market continues to weaken. The middle - stream continuous shipment suppresses the spot price, and manufacturers are forced to cut prices. The market negative feedback continues. The near - month 09 contract has a weak reality, and the far - month 01 contract has a weak expectation. The deep - processing orders are weak, and the low - e glass production rate is continuously low. There is a certain pressure on the rigid demand side of glass. In the long - run, at the bottom of the real estate cycle, the completion volume is shrinking, and the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply dilemma. High - level short positions established earlier can be closed for profit, waiting for new logical drivers [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 50 yuan to 14,900 yuan, a decline of 0.33% from August 26th. The full - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 75 yuan to - 860 yuan/ton, a rise of 8.02% [1]. Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 40 yuan, a rise of 4.02%; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 5 yuan, a rise of 5.56%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 45 yuan, a decline of 4.15% [1]. Production and Consumption Analysis - In June, Thailand's production was 392,600 tons, a 44.23% increase from the previous value; Indonesia's production was 176,200 tons, a 12.03% decrease; India's production was 62,400 tons, a 30.82% increase; China's production was 103,200 tons, a 7.05% increase. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.13%, a 1.06 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires was 64.76%, a 1.67 - percentage - point increase. In July, domestic tire production was 94.364 million units, an 8.16% decrease; tire exports were 66.65 million units, a 10.51% increase. The total import volume of natural rubber was 474,800 tons, a 2.47% increase [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory decreased by 3,121 tons to 616,731 tons, a 0.50% decrease; the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 1,612 tons to 44,857 tons, a 3.47% decrease [1]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feed material remained unchanged at 49,000 yuan; the N - type material basis (average price) increased by 2,295 yuan to 310 yuan, a 115.62% increase [3]. Futures Price and Inter - month Spread - The main contract price decreased by 2,295 yuan to 48,690 yuan, a 4.50% decrease. The spread between the current month and the next - month contract increased by 160 yuan, a 266.67% increase [3]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: The silicon wafer output was 12.29 GW, a 1.57% increase; the polysilicon output was 2.91 kilotons, a 0.68% decrease. Monthly: The polysilicon output was 101 kilotons, a 5.10% increase; the polysilicon import volume was 0.12 kilotons, a 47.48% increase; the polysilicon export volume was 0.21 kilotons, a 3.92% decrease [3]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.7 kilotons to 24.9 kilotons, a 2.89% increase; the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.39 GW to 17.41 GW, a 12.07% decrease; the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 10 lots to 6,880 lots [3]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 20 yuan to 9,300 yuan, a 0.53% decrease; the basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) decreased by 80 yuan to 775 yuan, a 7.19% decrease [4]. Inter - month Spread - The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 5 yuan to - 25 yuan, a 16.67% increase; the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 5 yuan to - 12 yuan, a 25.00% increase [4]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon output was 338.3 kilotons, a 3.23% increase; the Xinjiang industrial silicon output was 150.3 kilotons, a 15.21% decrease; the Yunnan industrial silicon output was 41.2 kilotons, a 153.86% increase [4]. Inventory Change - The Xinjiang inventory increased by 0.31 kilotons to 12.01 kilotons, a 2.65% increase; the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.05 kilotons to 3.19 kilotons, a 1.59% increase [4]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - The price of log 2509 decreased by 9.5 yuan to 792 yuan, a 1.19% decrease; the 09 contract basis increased by 9.5 yuan to - 42 yuan [6]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.156, an increase of 0.002; the import theoretical cost was 815.74 yuan, an increase of 0.20 yuan [6]. Supply (Monthly) - The port shipment volume was 1.733 million cubic meters, a 1.51% decrease; the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 47, an 11.32% decrease [6]. Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - The national log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, a 0.33% decrease; the Shandong inventory was 1.86 million cubic meters, a 0.32% increase [6]. Demand: Daily Outbound Volume (Weekly) - The national daily outbound volume was 64,500 cubic meters, a 2% increase; the Shandong daily outbound volume was 34,900 cubic meters, a 3% decrease [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass quotation remained unchanged at 1,140 yuan; the glass 2505 contract price increased by 1 yuan to 1,267 yuan, a 0.08% increase; the 05 contract basis decreased by 1 yuan to - 127 yuan, a 0.79% decrease [7]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash quotation remained unchanged at 1,350 yuan; the soda ash 2505 contract price decreased by 2 yuan to 1,375 yuan, a 0.15% decrease; the 05 contract basis increased by 2 yuan to - 25 yuan, a 7.41% increase [7]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate was 88.48%, a 1.33% increase; the weekly soda ash output was 771.4 kilotons, a 1.33% increase; the float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 159,600 tons [7]. Inventory - The glass market inventory increased by 18 kilotons to 6,360.6 kilotons, a 0.28% increase; the soda ash factory inventory increased by 17 kilotons to 1,910.6 kilotons, a 0.89% increase [7]. Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year Monthly) - The new construction area growth rate was - 0.09%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points; the construction area growth rate was 0.05%, a 2.43 - percentage - point decrease; the completion area growth rate was - 0.22%, a 0.03 - percentage - point decrease; the sales area growth rate was - 6.55%, a 6.50 - percentage - point decrease [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content was found in the provided reports. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - The current market lacks a clear directional guide, with a mix of long and short factors. Prices are mainly fluctuating within a range, with the 01 contract's reference range being 15,000 - 16,500. Follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation during the peak production season in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider shorting at high levels [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is trending weakly following its own fundamental logic. The overall demand has no growth expectation, and the inventory may face further pressure. It is recommended to try shorting at high levels. - Glass has a weak demand in the deep - processing sector, and the industry needs to clear excess capacity. The short - selling logic on the disk is not over, and previous high - level short positions can be held [3]. Logs - The log futures are expected to fluctuate between 800 - 850. It is recommended to mainly go long at low levels with reference to the 01 contract [4]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon fluctuates widely. The cost center is expected to rise, and there are expectations of capacity clearance. It is recommended to try going long at low levels, with the main price fluctuation range being 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is still facing inventory accumulation pressure. It is expected to mainly fluctuate at high levels, with the price range's lower limit rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit being 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try going long at low levels and consider buying put options to short at high levels when volatility is low [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 150 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.01%. The whole - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 55 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.98%. - The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged, and the non - standard price difference increased by 8.48% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 45 yuan/ton, a rise of 4.50%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.26%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.65% [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's production increased by 44.23%, Indonesia's decreased by 12.03%, India's increased by 30.82%, and China's increased by 6.80%. - The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. In July, domestic tire production decreased by 8.16%, while tire exports increased by 10.51%. - In June, the total import volume of natural rubber increased by 2.21%. In July, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 5.00% [1]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.89%, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 10.02%. The inflow and outflow rates of dry rubber in Qingdao changed [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract increased by 1.36%, and the glass 2509 contract increased by 1.42%. The 05 basis decreased by 151.8% [3]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract increased by 1.25%, and the soda ash 2509 contract increased by 1.32%. The 05 basis decreased by 141.67% [3]. Supply - The operating rate of soda ash increased by 1.33%, and the weekly output increased by 1.33%. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [3]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory increased by 0.28%, the soda ash factory inventory increased by 0.89%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 6.37%. The number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories remained unchanged [3]. Real Estate Data (YoY) - The new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [3]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures prices generally declined. The prices of various specifications of spot logs in ports remained mostly unchanged, and the outer - disk quotes remained unchanged [4]. Supply - The port shipping volume decreased by 1.51%, and the number of congested ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 11.32% [4]. Inventory - As of August 15, the national total inventory of coniferous logs was 3.06 million cubic meters, showing a continuous decline. The inventory in Shandong decreased by 3.74%, and that in Jiangsu increased by 5.95% [4]. Demand - As of August 15, the average daily log delivery volume was 63,300 cubic meters, remaining basically flat [4]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China's oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged. The basis of different specifications changed, with some decreasing significantly [5]. Monthly Spread - The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 20.00%, and the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 1.45%, etc. [5]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon production increased by 3.23%, and the operating rate increased by 2.47%. The production and operating rates of different regions changed. The production of organic silicon DMC decreased by 4.54%, while that of polysilicon increased by 5.10% [5]. Inventory Changes - The inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factories increased slightly, while the social inventory decreased by 0.37%, and the order inventory decreased by 0.23% [5]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average prices of N - type polysilicon raw materials remained unchanged, while the prices of N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components increased slightly. The N - type material basis increased by 4.94% [6]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The main contract decreased by 0.24%. The monthly spreads between different contracts changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [6]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - The weekly silicon wafer production increased by 1.57%, and the polysilicon production decreased by 0.68%. The monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10%, and the import volume increased by 47.48% [6]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 2.89%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 12.07% [6].