Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - After the Iran-US conflict subsides, crude oil prices are likely to fall. If the conflict ends quickly and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to drop from its current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel [3][4] - Crude oil chemical futures will generally follow the decline of crude oil, but show structural differentiation. Direct oil chemical varieties will see their prices fall in sync with crude oil, while coal chemical/light hydrocarbon route varieties are more resistant to decline, and downstream processing sectors will see improved profitability [5][6] - The stock index continues to show a strong upward trend, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Gold is expected to continue to be volatile and bullish. Iron ore is in a high - level wide - range shock, and the right - side signal is yet to come. Glass should be treated as a wide - range shock before the upper pressure is broken. Methanol inventories have decreased. Pulp has some bottom support [8][14][16] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Impact of Iran - US Conflict on Crude Oil Prices - Geopolitical conflicts usually cause short - term emotional premiums on oil prices. After most Middle East geopolitical events, the risk premium of crude oil will be quickly reversed within a few weeks to 2 - 3 months and return to fundamental pricing [4] - If the current conflict ends quickly, Brent crude oil is likely to fall to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel, and the geopolitical premium will fade. Only in the case of long - term blockade or continuous supply interruption in core oil - producing areas can oil prices remain high for a long time, but the probability of this scenario is low [4] 2. Trends of Crude Oil Chemical Sector and Futures when Crude Oil Falls - Crude oil chemical futures will generally follow the decline of crude oil, with direct oil chemical varieties such as naphtha cracking, pure benzene, ethylene glycol, PTA, PP/PE seeing their prices fall in sync with crude oil, and the greater the previous increase, the more obvious the decline [5] - Coal chemical/light hydrocarbon route varieties such as coal - to - olefins and methanol are more resistant to decline, and downstream processing sectors such as plastic and rubber products will see improved profitability [6] 3. Key Influencing Factors and Rhythms - The faster the conflict subsides, the steeper the decline of crude oil and chemical futures, usually completing the main decline within 1 - 4 weeks [6] - The concentrated liquidation of previous profit - taking positions will amplify short - term fluctuations, and the market will gradually return to the supply - demand logic after the decline [6] - If global crude oil inventories rise, OPEC+ increases production or releases strategic reserves, it will accelerate the decline of oil prices. If demand remains stable, the decline will be more moderate [6] 4. Technical Analysis of Different Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Continues to show a strong upward trend. It is recommended to buy on dips. On Wednesday, the stock index continued to rebound and strengthen, and it is expected to form a three - wave rise in the 15 - minute chart in the early trading tomorrow [8][9] - **Gold**: The daily - level decline of gold has gradually stopped. It is expected to continue to be volatile and bullish [14] - **Iron Ore**: Australia and Brazil's shipments maintain a normal rhythm. There is still an expectation of loose supply in the medium - and long - term. The terminal demand needs time to start. It is in a high - level wide - range shock, and the right - side signal is yet to come [16][17] - **Glass**: The daily melting volume has declined, and inventories have slightly decreased. It is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities in the short term. It should be treated as a wide - range shock before the upper pressure is broken [20][19] - **Methanol**: In March, due to intensified geopolitical conflicts and the tense situation in the Middle East, as of March 25, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.1555 million tons, a decrease of 106,200 tons from the previous period, with a decrease of 84,700 tons in East China [22] - **Pulp**: The current futures price has broken through the low of nearly a year ago. Although there is still some downward space, it is relatively limited. It has attracted some corporate customers to take over, and there is some bottom support. Attention should be paid to position control [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, it already includes the current geopolitical premium, so take profit at high prices and do long on the MTO profit at low prices [4]. - For urea, short at high prices considering the high - price and unfavorable time for demand, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7]. - For rubber, trade flexibly according to the short - term market, set stop - losses, and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, it is expected to rise in the short - term before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of large short - term increases [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to high non - integrated profit, wide supply, and large geopolitical influence on the market [19]. - For polyethylene, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [22]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [25]. - For PX, it is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of large short - term increases [27]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN is expected to rise significantly [30]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the oil - chemical profit is at a low level, but be cautious of large short - term increases [33]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 28.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 3.72%, at 723.90 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 300.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.45%, at 4348.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 209.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.89%, at 5159.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Start a bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by (97.00) yuan/ton, reported at 3089 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 11 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: Take profit at high prices and do long on the MTO profit at low prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan 0 yuan/ton, Hebei 0 yuan/ton, Hubei 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi 0 yuan/ton, and Northeast 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 3 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 1 yuan/ton, reported at 1863 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: Short at high prices, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Crude oil declined while RU rebounded. The overall market changes rapidly. Bulls believe in limited rubber production in Southeast Asia, improved demand in China, and rubber substitution. Bears believe in a marginal decline in macro - expectations, increased supply, and a seasonal demand slump. As of March 19, 2026, the full - steel tire production load of Shandong tire enterprises was 69.22%, up 0.58 percentage points from last week and 0.17 percentage points from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire production load of domestic tire enterprises was 77.17%, up 0.48 percentage points from last week and down 5.57 percentage points from the same period last year. Middle - East export orders were still on hold. As of March 15, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.49 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56 million tons, a decline of 1.13%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 92.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.34%. The total inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 44.39 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.94 million tons to 69.21 million tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was 15350 (+100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1970 (+30) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1985 (+45) US dollars, Shandong butadiene was 18000 (+100) yuan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 18300 (+500) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 16800 (+500) yuan. The Asian butadiene production rate decreased, and supply decreased, with an expected strong butadiene market [9][10][11]. - **Strategy**: Trade flexibly according to the short - term market, set stop - losses, and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 150 yuan, reported at 5703 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5500 (-360) yuan/ton, the basis was 203 (-170) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 98 (-11) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2750 (+15) yuan/ton, the price of semi - coke medium - sized material was 735 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 1450 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 728 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC production rate was 80.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 84.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the ethylene method was 69.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4%. The overall downstream production rate was 41.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%. The in - factory inventory was 36.5 million tons (-1.2), and the social inventory was 137.1 million tons (-3.6) [14]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to rise in the short - term before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of large short - term increases [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene was 8245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 8313 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 68 yuan/ton, an increase of 108 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 10105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 137 yuan/ton; the basis was 95 yuan/ton, a weakening of 63 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was - 47.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton. The non - integrated EB device profit was - 212.55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 126.8 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 70.46%, a decrease of 1.33%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 16.25 million tons, an increase of 0.60 million tons. The weighted production rate of the three S products was 40.93%, an increase of 0.60%. The PS production rate was 51.60%, a decrease of 0.10%; the EPS production rate was 61.00%, an increase of 3.22%; the ABS production rate was 67.10%, a decrease of 0.30% [18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to high non - integrated profit, wide supply, and large geopolitical influence on the market [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 203 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton. The basis was - 215 yuan/ton, a weakening of 147 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 80.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 56.83 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71 million tons, and the trader inventory was 5.48 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 million tons. The downstream average production rate was 35%, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 147 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 35 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: Short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 139 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan/ton. The basis was 0 yuan/ton, a weakening of 136 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 71.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 59.62 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.14 million tons, the trader inventory was 19.36 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.244 million tons, and the port inventory was 7.19 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 million tons. The downstream average production rate was 46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%. The LL - PP spread was - 260 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 64 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 383 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 49 yuan/ton [24]. - **Strategy**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 206 yuan, reported at 9502 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 22 yuan (-18). The PX load in China was 84.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the Asian load was 74.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. Some devices had issues such as postponed restart and shutdown. The PTA load was 80.8%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first and middle ten - days of March were 31.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8 million tons. The inventory at the end of February was 480 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16 million tons. The PXN was 139 US dollars (+26), the South Korean PX - MX was 91 US dollars (+4), and the naphtha cracking spread was 385 US dollars (-100) [26]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of large short - term increases [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 102 yuan, reported at 6592 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 108 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 80.8%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. The downstream load was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The social inventory on March 6 was 285.4 million tons. The on - disk processing fee increased by 33 yuan to 359 yuan [29]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN is expected to rise significantly [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 83 yuan, reported at 5036 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 96 yuan (+14). The ethylene glycol production rate was 66.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; among them, the syngas - based production rate was 72.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%; the ethylene - based production rate was 63.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. Some devices had load adjustments. The downstream load was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The import arrival forecast was 11.7 million tons, and the East China departure was 0.8 million tons on March 24. The port inventory was 103.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.8 million tons. The naphtha - based production profit was - 2680 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 2680 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1310 yuan. The cost of ethylene rose to 1450 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder rebounded to 640 yuan [32]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the oil - chemical profit is at a low level, but be cautious of large short - term increases [33].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 305.43 points (0.66%) to 46,429.49 points, the Nasdaq Composite increasing by 0.77% to 21,929.83 points, and the S&P 500 gaining 0.54% to 6,591.90 points [1][2]. Technology Sector - The Wande American Technology Seven Giants Index rose by 0.80%, with notable gains from Amazon (up 2.16%), NVIDIA (up 1.99%), and Tesla (up 0.76%). However, Microsoft saw a slight decline of nearly 0.5% due to mixed market sentiment [3][4]. Semiconductor and Storage Stocks - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased by 1.21% to 7,967.74 points, indicating a strong performance in the semiconductor sector [5]. - In contrast, the storage sector experienced a downturn, with Western Digital falling by 1.63%, Seagate by 2.6%, and Micron Technology dropping over 3%. This decline was attributed to concerns over AI storage demand following Google's introduction of a new memory compression technology [7]. Chinese Stocks - Chinese assets saw a significant rally, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 1.86% and the Wande Chinese Technology Leaders Index increasing by 1.93%. Notable individual stock performances included Meituan surging by 14.43% and JD.com by 8.30% [8][9]. Commodity Market - Precious metals continued their strong performance, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.2% to approximately $4,530 per ounce and silver futures increasing by 2.6% to $70.41 per ounce. Gold stocks also performed well, with Harmony Gold rising over 5% [10]. - Conversely, international oil prices fell significantly, with light crude oil futures dropping by $2.03 to $90.32 per barrel, and Brent crude futures down by $2.27 to $102.22 per barrel, influenced by easing tensions in the Middle East [11]. Inflation and Interest Rates - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 7.6 basis points to 4.32%. Rising inflation concerns, driven by increased oil prices, have altered market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, with no anticipated rate cuts for the year [12].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing deterioration of geopolitical situations in the Middle East is likely to push global oil prices and inflation expectations higher, suppressing global macro liquidity, leading to a transition from reflation trades to stagflation trades. The recommendation is to overweight Chinese equities and oil [1]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Context - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is worsening, with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked, resulting in high oil prices that maintain upward momentum. The key factor for asset pricing will be the duration of the blockade [1][3]. - Central banks in multiple economies are signaling a hawkish stance, shifting monetary policy guidance towards anti-inflation measures, which compresses the space for interest rate cuts and leads to a significant downward adjustment in macro liquidity easing expectations [1]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Chinese stock markets exhibit strong resilience, suggesting an overweight position in A-shares. The current market conditions do not warrant panic selling, as there is potential for a significant bottom and rebound in the Chinese market [1]. - The recommendation to overweight oil is based on the current geopolitical tensions and declining oil inventories in major economies, despite relatively weak global oil demand [3]. Group 3: Bond Market Insights - Inflation expectations are likely to suppress the performance of long-duration bonds. The imbalance between financing demand and credit supply remains a reality, but risk appetite is trending upwards, prompting asset reallocation by households and enterprises [2]. - The U.S. economy is converging marginally, with inflation expectations pressuring long-duration U.S. Treasury bonds. The potential for a gradual decline in U.S. Treasury yields is anticipated due to a more cautious monetary policy stance [2]. Group 4: Commodity Market Dynamics - The transition from reflation trades to stagflation trades may suppress demand for industrial commodities. Recent developments in electric power-related construction equipment and military facility updates have created new demand for industrial metals, but the overall macroeconomic environment is likely to dampen this demand [3].

Group 1: Upstream Resources - Crude oil prices continue to rise significantly, with Brent crude futures settling at $112.2 per barrel, up 8.8% from the previous period as of March 20 [7] - Non-ferrous metal prices have declined sharply, with COMEX gold, LME copper, and LME aluminum prices down 9.6%, 6.7%, and 6.5% respectively [10] - Coal prices have shown slight fluctuations, with a 0.8% increase, reflecting weak demand during the off-season [8] Group 2: Midstream Cycles and Manufacturing - Emerging technology sectors continue to experience high growth, with PCB exports in January-February 2026 increasing by 28.3% year-on-year, reaching $4.55 billion [19] - The electronic industry in Taiwan reported a revenue growth of 29.4% year-on-year during the same period, driven by strong demand in IC manufacturing and storage segments [19] - Construction demand remains weak, with steel prices showing slight fluctuations and a marginal increase in building material prices due to rising costs [21][28] Group 3: Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales show marginal improvement, with a year-on-year decline of 5.7% in transaction volume across 30 major cities [32] - The food and beverage sector is facing weak demand, with live pig prices down 1.1% week-on-week, while agricultural commodity prices have shown slight increases [33] - Service consumption remains strong, with a 14.9% year-on-year increase in domestic movie box office revenue and a 90.3% increase in Shanghai Disneyland's crowd index [40] Group 4: Logistics and Passenger Flow - Passenger travel demand has increased, with major cities reporting a 3.0% year-on-year rise in subway passenger volume [48] - Road freight demand has shown a marginal increase of 3.4%, while express delivery volumes have decreased slightly [50] - Port throughput has improved, with cargo and container throughput increasing by 0.8% and 3.7% respectively [55]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing volatility in the global commodity market since 2026, driven by geopolitical instability and rising supply risks, while domestic demand for commodities is expected to stabilize due to government policies aimed at efficiency and structural adjustments [1]. Group 1: Industrial Supply Optimization - The government report highlights the implementation of a dual control system for carbon emissions and the comprehensive rectification of "involution" competition, particularly affecting the steel and coal industries [2]. - In the steel sector, supply governance is shifting from merely reducing output to optimizing capacity, with carbon constraints becoming a key driver for this optimization [2]. - The steel industry is expected to transition towards a clearing phase, benefiting profit levels as carbon constraints tighten over time [2]. Group 2: Coal Industry Dynamics - The coal sector faces constraints on capacity utilization due to "involution" policies, limiting the elasticity of coal production, although large-scale capacity reduction is unlikely due to energy security concerns [3]. - Under the dual carbon goals, coal consumption will face increasing pressure from renewable energy alternatives, with coal power expected to enter a "peak zone" during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]. - The projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for coal power generation during the 14th Five-Year Plan is -0.3%, indicating a slow decline with potential fluctuations due to weather conditions [3]. Group 3: Energy Security and Structure - The report sets a target for energy production capacity to reach 5.8 billion tons of standard coal by 2025, enhancing energy self-sufficiency [4]. - By 2025, China's primary energy production capacity is expected to reach 5.13 billion tons of standard coal, marking a 3.6% year-on-year increase, with natural gas and electricity generation growing at rates of 6.3% and 4.8%, respectively [4]. - Coal remains a cornerstone of China's energy system, with coal production expected to contribute approximately 3.46 billion tons of standard coal by 2025, despite a declining share [4]. Group 4: Food Security Measures - The government report outlines a shift in agricultural policy towards a balanced focus on quantity, capacity, and overall efficiency, emphasizing a comprehensive approach to food security [5]. - The target for grain production is set to stabilize at around 1.4 trillion jin, reflecting a commitment to absolute food supply security and basic self-sufficiency [6]. - Policies aim to address structural contradictions in grain and oil supply, including bolstering soybean production and expanding oilseed cultivation to reduce reliance on imports [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting trends of gold and oil prices amid the Iran conflict, suggesting that gold may act as a leading indicator while oil prices are supported by the risk of prolonged conflict. Both assets face significant "buy high, sell low" risks by 2026 [3][8]. Group 1: Gold and Oil Price Trends - Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict until March 18, gold prices have dropped nearly 10%, while oil prices surged approximately 50%, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [3]. - Gold prices reached a premium of 2.2 times its 60-month moving average by the end of February, the highest level since 1980, suggesting a potential peak [4]. - The gold-to-oil ratio peaked in January, with 1 ounce of gold exchanging for about 50 barrels of WTI crude oil by March 18, down from 79 barrels on February 27, indicating a significant reversal potential [6]. Group 2: Market Signals and Predictions - The S&P 500 index relative to U.S. GDP is at a historical high, with CPI hovering below 3%, suggesting a potential normalization towards 0% [4]. - By 2026, gold may face downward pressure if the Strait of Hormuz returns to safe navigation, potentially dropping to around $4,000 per ounce, while oil prices may also encounter similar resistance [8]. - Historical patterns indicate that Brent crude oil prices reaching $120 per barrel often lead to declines towards $40, raising concerns about a potential global energy crisis and economic recession [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "stagflation" concern has slightly eased, and major asset classes have rebounded. However, due to the unclear geopolitical conflict situation, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term [1]. - The Iran - geopolitical situation continues to impact the financial market. Trump's statement about peace talks with Iran led to a sharp decline in crude oil on the evening of the 23rd and a rebound in major asset classes, but Iran officials denied direct negotiations with the US on the 24th. This statement can somewhat ease the market's concern about the "stagflation" risk [1]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" outlines an increase in the target for the added value of the core digital economy industry, adds indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy, and improves the unified market and dual - carbon assessment and certification systems. The current domestic macro - economy is generally stable, and external demand remains resilient [1]. - The stock index, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors need to be vigilant against the drag caused by the further deterioration of market risk appetite. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF. The US stagflation expectation faces large uncertain fluctuations, and the global stock market continues to be weak, which may suppress risk assets [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas Macro - The Iran - geopolitical situation continues to affect the financial market. Trump's statement on peace talks led to a sharp decline in crude oil on the evening of the 23rd and a rebound in major asset classes. But on the 24th, Iran officials denied direct negotiations with the US. Although Trump's statement cannot substantially relieve the Strait blockade, it can ease the market's concern about the "stagflation" risk to some extent [1]. 3.2 Domestic Macro - The "15th Five - Year Plan" continues the "14th Five - Year" indicator framework, raises the target for the added value of the core digital economy industry, adds relevant indicators, and improves relevant systems. The current domestic macro - economy is stable, and external demand remains resilient [1]. 3.3 Asset Views - Due to the unclear geopolitical conflict situation, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term. The stock index, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors need to be vigilant against the drag of the further deterioration of market risk appetite. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF. The US stagflation expectation faces large uncertain fluctuations, and the global stock market continues to be weak, which may suppress risk assets [1]. 3.4 Market Conditions of Various Varieties - **Financial**: Stock index futures show a shrinking - volume rebound, index options' implied volatility falls, and the sentiment has not fully warmed up. Treasury bond futures price in the easing of the US - Iran situation, and the long - end sentiment of bonds warms up. All are expected to be volatile [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a post - oversold repair - type rebound in the short term, but need to be vigilant against the risk of repeated conflicts. They are expected to be volatile [4]. - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the European container shipping line has decreased month - on - month, and the spot market has declined. It is expected to be weakly volatile [4]. - **Black Building Materials**: Affected by repeated geopolitical conflicts, the market is expected to be volatile. For example, steel has strong cost support, and iron ore fluctuates at a high level [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The pessimistic sentiment has eased, and basic metals are expected to stop falling and fluctuate. For example, aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile, and nickel is expected to be strongly volatile [4]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The Middle East geopolitical situation remains deadlocked, and the energy and chemical sector continues to fluctuate at a high level. For example, crude oil fluctuates at a high level, and methanol fluctuates within a range [5]. - **Agriculture**: The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the price continues to weaken. Natural rubber rebounds slightly, and synthetic rubber fluctuates at a high level. Cotton fluctuates within a range [5]. 3.5 Financial Market and Industry Index Fluctuations - **Financial Market Fluctuations**: On March 24, 2026, the stock index futures of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose, while the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures showed different trends. The US dollar index fell, and the US and Chinese bond yields also changed [7]. - **Industry Index Fluctuations**: On March 24, 2026, most industries in the CITIC industry index rose, such as non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and steel. However, the petroleum and petrochemical industry fell [8][9]. - **Overseas Commodity Fluctuations**: On March 24, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil rose slightly, while NYMEX natural gas and ICE UK natural gas fell. Precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products also showed different trends [10][11]. - **Domestic Commodity Fluctuations**: On March 24, 2026, most domestic commodities showed different degrees of fluctuations. For example, gold and silver rose significantly, while crude oil and fuel oil fell significantly [12][13][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Trump is prepared for both negotiation and conflict. Before the risk in the Strait of Hormuz is resolved, oil prices will continue to rise. Measures such as joint release of strategic reserves and lifting of sanctions cannot offset the daily supply loss of 15 million barrels and do not address the fundamental issue. As supply tightness persists, the oil price center will rise again. SC will be significantly stronger than the overseas market due to the sharp increase in Middle East tanker freight rates. Given the high risks in the oil market driven by geopolitical factors, it is recommended to consider call spread options [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI's opening price was $100.51, closing at $88.87, with a maximum of $101.67, a minimum of $84.37, a decline of 9.53%, and a trading volume of 63.01 million lots. Brent's opening price was $107.5, closing at $96.07, with a maximum of $109.78, a minimum of $91.7, a decline of 9.72%, and a trading volume of 80.28 million lots. SC's opening price was 740.1 yuan/barrel, closing at 739.1 yuan/barrel, with a maximum of 799 yuan/barrel, a minimum of 715 yuan/barrel, a decline of 8.2%, and a trading volume of 20.81 million lots [5] - Trump claimed to have negotiated with Iran and ordered a 5 - day suspension of strikes on Iranian infrastructure, causing international oil prices to plummet. Iran later denied any contact with the US. The New York Times reported that the US military still considered deploying an airborne division's combat brigade to seize Kharg Island [5] 3.2 Industry News - Israeli officials said Iran was unlikely to agree to US demands, but Trump seemed determined to reach an agreement with Iran [7] - Iran's new supreme leader's military advisor, Mohsen Rezaei, emphasized that Iran would not stop the war until it received all compensation, all economic sanctions were lifted, and it obtained international legal guarantees that the US would not interfere in its affairs. He also said the dispute between Iran and the US had lasted since the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution and must be resolved [7] - Japan's government is considering intervening in the oil futures market [7] - US Energy Secretary Wright said the US might use the strategic petroleum reserve again, but the possibility was low. The release volume would be 1 - 1.5 million barrels per day, with a total of nearly 300 million barrels. The US is studying more measures to deal with oil prices [7] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption, with data sources from Bloomberg, EIA, and wind [9][11][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Rubber Industry - The market sentiment has eased with the expectation of a cease - fire and peace talks between the US and Iran, leading to a halt in the decline and a rebound in rubber prices. However, as the domestic rubber - producing areas are fully tapped, supply pressure will gradually dominate the market, and rubber prices are expected to remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the US - Iran conflict [2][4]. Urea Industry - The urea futures market is volatile, and the spot price has risen slightly. The current situation of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term, and the spot market deviates from the futures. The supply remains in a loose pattern, and demand is generally cautious. Policy factors suppress prices, and the short - term rise in futures driven by emotions cannot be transmitted to the spot market. The urea market is highly volatile in the short term due to the expected escalation of the Middle East conflict [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - For caustic soda, the supply has further decreased this week, the profit has increased significantly, and the export expectation is high. Although the downstream demand has improved, the overall supply - demand pattern is still weak. The price has been affected by the Middle East conflict and has fluctuated sharply, and it has fallen recently as the market sentiment has ebbed. For PVC, the futures price has weakened, and the spot price has retreated from a high level. The ethylene - based PVC has a rising trend driven by cost, while the calcium - carbide - based PVC has insufficient upward momentum. The overall market price is likely to be difficult to fall, but regional trends and raw material prices should be carefully observed [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - For glass, the spot price is stable, the supply has shrunk, and the demand is weak. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the market is expected to be a game between supply - demand fundamentals and cost support, with a weak and volatile trend. For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. The weekly output has shown a declining trend due to equipment maintenance, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is also expected to be volatile and weak [7]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, some Asian refineries' operations are affected, and the supply is expected to decline. The downstream product prices are rising, and the supply - demand expectation has improved. However, the short - term trend is dragged down by falling oil prices, and it may fluctuate with oil prices. For styrene, the overall supply is expected to remain stable, and the supply - demand situation is still tight. The profit has been continuously compressed due to the sharp rise in raw material ethylene prices, and the absolute price also fluctuates with oil prices [8]. Methanol Industry - The methanol market is highly volatile due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply side shows an increase in domestic production and a possible decrease in imports. The demand side has a warming expectation for MTO demand in ports. Currently, the decrease in imports dominates the market, but the sustainability of demand and policy risks should be noted [9]. LPG Industry - No specific core view is provided in the report, but price and inventory data show that LPG prices have fallen, and the inventory of refineries and ports has increased. The upstream refinery operating rate has decreased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has increased [10]. Crude Oil Industry - The current conflict in the Middle East has entered the fourth week, and the focus is on the control of the Strait of Hormuz and energy supply chain security. The market sentiment has eased, but there are doubts about the negotiation and cease - fire. The oil price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock, mainly supported by geopolitics and suppressed by policies. Short - term attention should be paid to the actual通航 recovery of the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of negotiations [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply is expected to decrease further, and the downstream polyester has a cost - transmission problem, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term trend is dragged down by falling oil prices. For PTA, there is an inventory - accumulation expectation, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. For ethylene glycol, the cost support is strong, the supply has decreased significantly, and the price has the momentum to rise. For short - fiber, the supply - demand situation has weakened, and it mainly fluctuates with raw materials. For bottle - chips, the supply is expected to be tight, and the processing fee of the main contract is expected to be strong [13]. Polyolefin Industry - Affected by the expectation of possible negotiations between the US and Iran, the polyolefin futures market has fallen significantly, and the basis has strengthened passively. The current fundamentals are based on the logic of "strong cost and reduced supply", but the downstream demand is limited. The unilateral price fluctuates greatly, and long - positions can be reduced [14]. 3. Summary by Directory Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of various rubber products have shown different degrees of changes, such as the increase in the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex and the decrease in the price of natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna. The basis of some products has also changed [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads between different contracts have changed, such as the change in the 9 - 1 spread and the 1 - 5 spread [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of rubber in different countries and regions in different months has changed, and the operating rates of tire enterprises and the production and export volume of tires have also fluctuated. The inventory of rubber in bonded areas and warehouses has also shown different trends [2]. Urea Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of urea futures contracts have fallen, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [5]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of some upstream raw materials have changed slightly, such as the increase in the price of动力煤 in Yijinhuoluo Banner [5]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The spot prices of urea in different regions have shown different trends, with some prices rising slightly [5]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: The daily production of domestic urea has decreased, the inventory of enterprises and ports has decreased, and the order days of production enterprises have increased [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda products in the spot and futures markets have changed, with some prices rising and some falling [6]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda have increased [6]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries have decreased, and the profits of different production methods have changed [6]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC in factories and society have decreased [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of glass and soda ash products have changed, with some prices falling and some spreads changing [7]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The daily melting volume of glass has decreased, and the weekly production of soda ash has increased slightly [7]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of glass and soda ash in factories have decreased, and the inventory days of glass factories' soda ash have increased [7]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in real - estate data such as new construction area, sales area, and construction area have shown different trends [7]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene have changed, and the spreads between pure benzene and related products have also changed [8]. - **Benzene - Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of benzene - styrene products in the spot and futures markets have changed [8]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of downstream products of pure benzene and styrene have changed [8]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in ports have changed, and the operating rates of related industries in the产业链 have also changed [8]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of methanol futures contracts and spot prices have changed, with some prices falling and some spreads narrowing [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of methanol in enterprises and ports have decreased [9]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol have changed, with the operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises increasing and the operating rate of some downstream industries also changing [9]. LPG Industry - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures contracts have fallen, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - **LPG Outer - Market Prices**: The outer - market prices of LPG have increased [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of LPG in refineries and ports have increased, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries have changed [10]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil products such as Brent, WTI, and SC have changed, and the spreads between different contracts and different crude oil varieties have also changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products and the spreads between different contracts have changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil products have changed [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products have changed, with some prices falling and some cash flows improving [13]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX products have changed, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [13]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA products have changed, and there is an inventory - accumulation expectation [13]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG products have changed, and the supply has decreased significantly [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain have changed [13]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts have fallen [14]. - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of polyolefin products have changed, and the spreads between different products and contracts have also changed [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of PE and PP have changed [14]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of PE and PP in enterprises and society have decreased [14].