Report Overview - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the global asset market performance on August 1, 2025, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data [3][5][6] Global Bond Market 10 - Year Treasury Bond Yields - In major economies on August 1, 2025, the US was at 4.218%, the UK at 4.526%, France at 3.346%, etc. There were various changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the US was -0.172, and the one - year change was -0.067 [3] 2 - Year Treasury Bond Yields - Yields and their changes are presented for different countries. For instance, China (1Y) was at 3.940 on August 1, 2025, with a latest change of 0.080 [3] Exchange Rate Market Dollar against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On August 1, 2025, the exchange rate of the dollar against the Brazilian real was 5.542, with a latest change of -1.04%. There were also changes in weekly, monthly, and yearly periods [3] RMB Exchange Rates - The on - shore RMB was at 7.193, the offshore RMB at 7.194, etc. on August 1, 2025, with different changes in different time frames [3] Global Stock Index Market Major Economies' Stock Indices - As of August 1, 2025, the Dow Jones was at 6238.010, the S&P 500 at 43588.580, etc. There were different latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes. For example, the latest change in the Dow Jones was -1.60%, and the one - year change was 14.94% [3] Other Stock Indices - The report also includes data on the Russian, Japanese, and other countries' stock indices, such as the Nikkei at 40799.600 on August 1, 2025, with a latest change of -0.66% [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, etc. are provided. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3559.95 with a -0.37% change [5] Valuation - PE (TTM) and its环比 changes are given for CSI 300, S&P 500, etc. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.12 with a -0.07环比 change [5] Risk Premium - The risk premium and its环比 changes are presented for some indices. For example, the 1/PE - 10 rate of the S&P 500 was -0.44 with a 0.22环比 change [5] Fund Flows - The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, etc. are shown. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was -522.29 [5] Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. are provided. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 15983.51 with a -3376.84环比 change [5] Main Contract Basis - The basis and basis ratio of IF, IH, and IC are given. For example, the basis of IF was -25.33 with a -0.62% basis ratio [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T00, TF00, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of T00 was 108.435 with a 0.17% change [6] - The money market shows the R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M rates and their daily changes in basis points [6]

数月以来，华尔街对美国总统特朗普挑起的贸易战和美联储的鹰派立场不以为意，坚信强劲的美国经济 将继续支撑市场走高。 但这种信心本周开始动摇，疲弱的就业增长数据叠加特朗普新一轮关税"炮火"，令市场措手不及。 随着美国就业增长大幅放缓，避险情绪升温。美股三大指数周五均跌超1%，纳指跌2%。 与此同时，投资者蜂拥涌入美债市场，推动2年期美债收益率暴跌至3.68%，创2023年12月以来最大单 日跌幅。债券价格和收益率成反比。 "我们认为，今天的数据发布最适合用一句话概括，即'坏消息就是坏消息'，"ClearBridge Investments经 济与市场策略主管Jeff Schulze周五表示。 "坏消息就是好消息"这一理论长期以来是驱动美股上涨的因素之一，其逻辑在于美国经济低迷意味着美 联储降息力度将增加，进而利好美股等风险资产。 Schulze 说："在就业增长陷入停滞、而新一轮关税风暴即将来临的背景下，未来几个月出现负增长的非 农就业数据完全有可能，这可能会引发市场对经济衰退的担忧。" 就业市场的疲软也令交易员对美联储降息的押注明显上升，从本周早些时候的40%跃升至91%，从而导 致美元周五下跌1%，创4月以来 ...

全球权益市场表现分化。美股中纳斯达克指数微涨0.07%，而道指和标普500分别下跌1.72%和0.77%； 欧洲市场整体偏弱，其中法国CAC40下跌0.80%，德国DAX下跌0.63%，英国富时100略有上涨0.14%； 亚洲市场普遍下行，日经225、韩国综合指数和恒生指数分别下跌1.58%、2.40%和3.47%。 图 一周摘要 图 市场概况： 上 周（7月28日至8月1日）A股市场整体呈现回调态势，多数宽基指数下跌。权重指数 如上证50、沪深300和科创50分别下跌1.48%、1.75%和1.65%，显示低估值蓝筹及科技板块承压明 显。全周唯一的亮点是万得微盘股的逆势上攻，上涨1.09%，微盘股资金"容量"再度被放大。此 外，万得双创指数逆势录得0.12%的正收益。全周上证指数上涨1.67%，深证指数上涨2.33%，创业 板指上涨2.76%。 行业板块： 上周Wind一级平均跌幅1.44%，Wind百大概念指数上涨比例43%。板块方面，仅19%板块获 得正收益，医药生物、通信、传媒相对表现良好，分别上涨2.95%、2.54%、1.13%，社会服务、国防军 工、计算机等均出现小幅下跌，而房地产、有色金属、煤 ...

Group 1: Currency Market Impact - The US dollar experienced a significant decline, with the dollar index dropping 1.37%, marking the largest decrease since mid-April [1][2] - The dollar fell 2.23% against the Japanese yen and 1.48% against the euro, indicating a broad weakening of the dollar [2][3] Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Outlook - The US added only 73,000 non-farm jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, with previous months' data revised down by a total of 258,000, the largest downward revision since the pandemic [2][3] - Analysts suggest that uncertainty from US tariff policies is negatively impacting business sentiment and contributing to a deteriorating labor market [2] Group 3: Stock Market Reaction - US stock markets faced a sell-off, with the Dow Jones dropping over 500 points (1.23%), the Nasdaq down 2.24%, and the S&P 500 falling 1.6% [3] - Major tech stocks, including Amazon and Meta, saw significant declines, reflecting broader market concerns [3] Group 4: Cryptocurrency Market Response - The cryptocurrency market also faced a downturn, with Ethereum dropping over 5% and total liquidations exceeding $700 million in the past 24 hours [4] - The market saw over 160,000 liquidations, primarily affecting long positions, indicating a strong negative sentiment [4] Group 5: International Trade and Tariff Reactions - The US announced new tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on various countries, leading to widespread international criticism and concerns about global economic impacts [5][6] - Countries like Germany, Switzerland, and Brazil expressed strong opposition to the tariffs, indicating potential trade negotiations and disputes [6][7]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant drop of 1.8%, marking its worst single-day performance since April, driven by fears of economic downturn due to tariff policies and disappointing job growth [1] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), known as the "Wall Street Fear Index," surged to nearly 20, indicating increasing market pressure [1] - The cost of hedging against a potential 10% decline in the S&P 500 index ETF has reached its highest level since the regional banking crisis in May 2023, reflecting heightened concerns among investors [1] Group 2 - Following a 25% rise in the S&P 500 index since early April due to tariff impacts, investors are now seeking risk protection for the upcoming two months, particularly as the historically poor-performing months of August and September approach [3] - Data from Deutsche Bank indicates that Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are holding stock long positions at the 94th percentile, the highest level since January 2020, suggesting confidence in the market but also potential for sharp reversals if conditions change [3] - Investor anxiety remains primarily focused on the short term, with the skewness indicator for S&P 500 options rising but still below levels seen before the April downturn [3]

Group 1 - European stock indices experienced a decline due to concerns over tariffs impacting global economic growth, with the FTSE 100 down 0.70%, CAC 40 down 2.91%, and DAX down 2.66% [3] - International oil prices fell on Friday influenced by potential production increases from OPEC and its allies, with light crude oil futures down 2.79% and Brent crude down 2.83% [6] - Despite the drop on Friday, U.S. oil prices saw a cumulative increase of 3.33% for the week, while Brent oil rose by 1.80% [6] Group 2 - International gold prices rose over 1% on Friday, driven by disappointing U.S. employment data and increased market demand for safe-haven assets, closing at $3,399.80 per ounce, a 1.53% increase [9] - For the week, international gold prices accumulated a rise of 1.92% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The current speculative activity in the market is primarily focused on small-cap and low-priced stocks, with minimal impact on major indices like the S&P 500, contrasting with the 2021 meme stock frenzy led by GameStop and AMC [1][3]. Group 1: Speculative Activity - The most notable feature of the market in July was the intense pursuit of low-priced stocks, with the median increase of the lowest-priced decile of stocks reaching 16% by July 23, significantly outpacing the 1.4% increase of the highest-priced stocks [5]. - This investment logic, based on stock price rather than company fundamentals, is viewed as absurd by institutional investors, as companies can easily alter their stock prices through stock splits without affecting shareholder proportions or profit sharing [5]. - Many retail investors either do not understand or choose to ignore this fundamental principle, leading to a situation where their strategies worked during the trading frenzy in July, but when the speculation reversed at the end of the month, the cheapest stocks experienced the largest declines, averaging 6% [6]. Group 2: Capital Allocation Concerns - Excessive speculation may lead to improper capital allocation, as evidenced by the 2021 meme stock craze where companies like GameStop and AMC issued billions in new shares at inflated prices, only to see their stock prices plummet afterward [8]. - Historical warnings from economists, such as Keynes, highlight the risks of capital flowing to the wrong companies during speculative bubbles, which could harm growth and employment, a concern that remains relevant today [8]. Group 3: Market Impact and Sentiment - The current speculative activities have a relatively limited impact on the broader market, as there are no low-priced stocks within the S&P 500, and cheaper stocks among large companies did not show significant performance patterns in July [9]. - Investor sentiment, while more positive than at the beginning of the year, has not reached excessive optimism levels, and futures traders are less bullish compared to 2021 [10]. - Retail investors may have contributed to the rise of the S&P 500 index since April through buying on dips, but their influence in July was relatively limited, with the new meme stocks representing a public manifestation of summer speculation among private traders [11].

Economic Performance - Hong Kong's economy shows resilience in the first half of 2025, supported by strong export performance and improved local demand [1][2] - The GDP in Q2 2025 increased by 3.1% year-on-year, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of growth [1] - Private consumption expenditure rebounded with a 1.9% increase year-on-year after four consecutive quarters of decline [1] Retail Sector - Retail sales value in June 2025 was estimated at HKD 30.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [2] - Seasonally adjusted retail sales value in Q2 2025 rose by 0.3% compared to Q1 2025, while retail sales volume increased by 2.7% [2] - The retail sector is stabilizing, supported by rising employment income and a positive stock market [2] Trade and Exports - Total merchandise exports grew by 11.5% year-on-year, accelerating from 8.4% in Q1 2025 [1][3] - Merchandise imports also increased by 12.7%, higher than the 7.2% growth in Q1 2025 [1] Financial Market - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant activity with 42 IPOs raising over HKD 107 billion in the first half of 2025, a 22% increase compared to the previous year [3] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 20% in the first half of 2025, marking the largest half-year increase in history [3] Government Initiatives - The Hong Kong government is implementing measures to boost consumption, attract investment, and diversify markets to support economic growth [2][4] - New initiatives include the "New Industrial Acceleration Program" and "New Industrialization Subsidy Program" to support strategic industries [3][4] - The government is also consulting on legislation for digital asset trading and custody services to promote the digital asset market [4]

研究中心宏观团队 2025/07/31 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/30 | 4.372 | 4.603 | 3.358 | 2.704 | 3.519 | 3.289 | 0.344 | 3.365 | 最新变化 | 0.051 | -0.029 | -0.005 | -0.003 | 0.002 | 0.002 | -0.003 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the global asset market performance on July 28, 2025, including data on major economies' 10 - year and 2 - year government bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data [3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Global Asset Market Performance - **Government Bond Yields**: - **10 - year Government Bonds**: In major economies such as the US, UK, France, etc., yields showed various changes. For example, the US 10 - year government bond yield was 4.412 on July 28, 2025, with a latest change of 0.033, a one - week change of 0.182, and a one - month change of 0.209 [3]. - **2 - year Government Bonds**: Different economies also had different yield trends. For instance, the US 2 - year government bond yield was 3.903 on July 28, 2025, with a latest change of 0.022, a one - week change of 0.038, and a one - month change of - 0.061 [3]. - **Exchange Rates**: - **Dollar against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: The dollar against currencies like the South African rand, Russian ruble, etc., had different percentage changes. For example, the dollar - South African rand exchange rate was 5.589 on July 28, 2025, with a latest change of 0.44% and a one - week change of 0.38% [3]. - **Renminbi**: The on - shore and off - shore renminbi exchange rates and the middle - price also had corresponding changes. For example, the on - shore renminbi exchange rate was 7.179 on July 28, 2025, with a latest change of 0.13% and a one - week change of 0.13% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: Indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq had different percentage changes. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 6389.770 on July 28, 2025, with a latest change of 0.02%, a one - week change of 1.33%, and a one - month change of 2.98% [3]. - **Other Stock Indices**: Including the Nikkei, Hang Seng Index, etc., also showed different trends. For example, the Hang Seng Index was 25562.130 on July 28, 2025, with a latest change of 0.68%, a one - week change of 2.27%, and a one - month change of 6.19% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Different credit bond indices in emerging economies and developed economies, such as emerging economies' investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices, and the US and euro - zone investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices, showed different performances [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were presented. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3597.94 with a percentage change of 0.12% [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) and its环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were given. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.52 with a环比 change of 0.01 [5]. - **Risk Premium**: Although the specific values were not filled in, the relevant indicators for CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were mentioned [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, and other segments were provided. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was - 472.56 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc., were shown. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 17423.07 with a环比 change of - 450.30 [5]. - **Main Contract Premium or Discount**: The basis and percentage changes of IF, IH, and IC were presented. For example, the basis of IF was - 13.82 with a percentage change of - 0.33% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Percentage Changes**: The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.395, 105.720, 108.400, and 105.785 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.00% each [6]. - **Funding Rates**: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4907%, 1.6264%, and 1.5600% respectively, with daily changes of - 20.00 BP, - 6.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [6].