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百利好晚盘分析:鸽派预期落空 黄金连回两日
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 09:15
Gold - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75%-5.00% on September 18, with expectations of two more 25 basis point cuts in the near future, but the dot plot indicates a smaller reduction than anticipated for next year [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in October is 91.9%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut by December is 83.9% [1] - Gold prices fell as profit-taking occurred after the rate cut, with a recent high of $3707, and a focus on the support level at $3623 [1] Oil - Global oil demand reached 104.4 million barrels per day as of September 17, an increase of 520,000 barrels per day year-on-year, with a year-to-date increase of 800,000 barrels per day [2] - Recent EIA data showed a significant drop in U.S. crude oil inventories due to decreased imports and near-peak exports [2] - Concerns over weakening U.S. economic data, particularly in employment, may dampen oil demand expectations [2] Dollar Index - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the rate cut was a "risk management measure" in response to a weak labor market, and there is no rush to begin easing [3] - Recent data showed an increase in initial jobless claims to 231,000, which was below the expected 240,000, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose significantly from -0.3 to 23.2 [3] - The dollar index rebounded to around 97.50 after the Fed's decision, with a potential downward trend if it cannot break above the 98 level [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been on a continuous rise, reaching a high of 45900, indicating strong bullish momentum [5] - Short-term adjustments are expected, with support levels at 44600 and 43750 [5] Copper - Copper prices have been fluctuating downwards from $4.65, with a potential end to the recent decline as support is observed at $4.45 [6] - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound movement, with resistance at $4.57 and support at $4.51 [6]
大宗商品资金流入激增,通胀“交易员”拉响警报:全球通胀或将在6-9个月内重新抬头
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-18 13:41
Core Insights - The article highlights a contrasting narrative between mainstream market optimism regarding inflation and the warnings from commodity traders about potential inflationary pressures ahead [1][2][3] Commodity Market Insights - Commodity markets are seen as a closer indicator of inflation, with rising raw material prices typically signaling broader price increases [2] - Historical data suggests that metal prices lead global Consumer Price Index (CPI) by approximately 6-9 months, indicating that current increases in metal prices may foreshadow rising inflation [2][3] Inflation Leading Indicators - Multiple inflation leading indicators are showing strong signals of impending price pressure, with a composite indicator based on manufacturing, monetary, and commodity data remaining above 2% and accelerating [3] - Rising freight and fertilizer prices are also noted as indicators that precede increases in food CPI [3] Market Sentiment - There is a notable overconfidence in the stock and bond markets, with significant inflows into major U.S. stock and bond ETFs, showing no signs of decline [4] - Current inflows into stocks and bonds do not reflect expectations of a scenario similar to the inflationary period of the 1970s, where commodities provided significant positive real returns [5]
香港特区行政长官李家超发表2025年施政报告: 协助内地科技企业到港融资
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-09-17 18:05
黄金市场与绿色金融领域,报告提出3年内向2000吨黄金仓储目标迈进,推动机场管理局及金融机构拓 展黄金仓储设施,并建立香港黄金中央清算系统,邀请上海黄金交易所参与,为跨境互通奠定基础。绿 色金融方面,港交所将深化与大湾区碳市场试点合作,测试跨境交易结算路径;香港特区政府持续发行 可持续债券,并推动碳交易代币化技术应用,助力香港打造国际绿色金融枢纽。 作为大湾区核心城市之一,李家超在今年的施政报告也重点提及大湾区产业和金融联动。其中,跨境金 融将优化"跨境征信互通""深港跨境数据验证平台",探索扩展至更多金融与非金融场景。李家超表示, 已经与深圳探讨数字金融合作,相关措施2025年内公布。而在大宗商品与碳交易领域,香港将与大湾区 内交易所合作开拓大宗商品交易及碳交易新业务,港交所碳市场将与大湾区试点碳市场研究跨境交易结 算。 9月17日,香港特别行政区行政长官李家超发表2025年施政报告。报告围绕"深化改革心系民生发挥优势 同创未来"的理念推出多项具体措施,以巩固香港国际金融中心枢纽地位为根基,以推动产业革新培育 新质生产力为引擎,同时依托北部都会区建设突破发展瓶颈,构建起多维度、高协同的发展格局,为香 港"由 ...
Chinese investors are retreating from record-setting gold for booming equities
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-17 14:03
Group 1: Gold Demand Trends - Chinese wholesale gold demand fell to 85 metric tons in August, the weakest since 2010, down 9 tons from July [1][2] - The decline in gold demand is attributed to subdued bar and coin sales as investors shift focus to equities [2] - Despite the People's Bank of China increasing gold reserves for 10 consecutive months, private demand has decreased in 2025 [5] Group 2: Price Dynamics and Investor Behavior - Gold prices on the London Bullion Market rose nearly 4%, reaching a record high above $3,700 per troy ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a 26% drop in trading activity from July to August [3][6] - Price fatigue among Chinese investors has deterred new gold purchases, with muted tonnage withdrawn from the Shanghai Gold Exchange compared to historical averages [7] Group 3: Shift to Equities - Chinese investors are increasingly moving from gold to domestic stocks, with the CSI300 Index rising 10% in August and approximately 16% year-to-date due to aggressive policy support [9][10] - Retail investors have pulled 6 billion Chinese yuan (approximately $834 million) from gold ETFs in August, reducing holdings by 7.7 tons [6]
李家超:探索缩短股票结算周期至T+1,落实稳定币发行人制度,建造区域黄金储备枢纽
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-17 06:41
Core Points - The Chief Executive of Hong Kong, John Lee, presented the 2025 Policy Address, focusing on economic development and enhancing the quality of life for residents [1] - The address outlines specific measures to accelerate the development of the Northern Metropolis, industrial innovation, and reinforce Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [1] Financial Sector Initiatives - Hong Kong will assist mainland tech companies in financing and explore shortening the stock settlement cycle to T+1 [2][3] - The government aims to enhance the bond market by improving financial infrastructure and establishing connections with markets in Switzerland and the UAE [2][3] - Plans to establish an international gold trading market include expanding gold storage capabilities to exceed 2000 tons within three years [3][4] Commodity and Family Office Development - Collaboration with Greater Bay Area exchanges to develop commodity and carbon trading [4] - The government will optimize tax incentives for family offices to attract more funds to Hong Kong [4][5] Digital Asset and Stablecoin Regulation - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) will promote tokenized deposits and establish a regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers [6] - The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) is working on expanding the types of digital asset products available to professional investors [6] Innovation and Technology - A HK$3 billion "Frontier Technology Research Support Scheme" will be launched to attract international research talent in AI [7] - The government plans to accelerate the development of autonomous vehicles and establish a regulatory framework for ride-hailing services [8] Clinical Trials and Pharmaceutical Development - The government aims to attract more pharmaceutical companies to conduct clinical trials in Hong Kong, particularly for rare diseases and advanced therapies [12] - A new "International Clinical Trial Academy" will be established to train clinical trial professionals in the Greater Bay Area [12] Investment and Economic Policies - The "New Capital Investor Entry Scheme" will be optimized to encourage investments in Hong Kong, with increased limits for non-residential property investments [13][14] - The government will enhance cross-border payment systems and improve cash assistance distribution for elderly residents in mainland China [13][14] Governance and Management - A "Department Head Responsibility System" will be established to strengthen governance and accountability within the government [15] Innovation Fund Launch - The "Innovation and Technology Industry Guidance Fund" is set to launch in the 2026-2027 fiscal year to promote strategic investments in emerging industries [16]
李家超,重大发布!
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-09-17 05:38
9月17日,香港特区行政长官李家超在立法会发表2025年《施政报告》。 李家超表示,《施政报告》既是香港全力"拼经济谋发展惠民生"、加快迈向"由治及兴"的进程表,亦是香港主动对接国家发展战略、实现突破新局面的策 略部署。在报告中,李家超就加快发展北部都会区、产业发展和革新、巩固香港国际金融中心地位等提出具体措施。 加快发展北部都会区 李家超表示,北部都会区是香港经济发展的新引擎,具有非常大的潜质,现在是加快发展北部都会区、引入产业和重大项目的最佳衔接期。香港特区政府 会加快发展北部都会区,成立由李家超领导的"北都发展委员会",制订北部都会区各发展区的营运模式。与此同时,研究北都大学城发展模式。 产业发展和革新 在产业发展和革新方面,李家超重点提及人工智能(AI),包括推进AI科研和人才优势、强化AI资金优势、强化AI数据优势、拓展AI应用等。李家超表 示,政府早前宣布推出30亿港元的"前沿科技研究支援计划",将会短期内接受申请,支持本地资助院校吸引AI等方面的国际科研顶尖人物来港,带领前沿 科技基础研究。此外,政府同时已预留十亿港元,于2026年成立"香港人工智能研发院",促进AI上游研发、中下游成果转化及开 ...
大类资产早报-20250917
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 01:32
Report Information - Report Title: "Large Class Asset Morning Report" - Report Date: September 17, 2025 - Author: Macro Team of the Research Center [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields and Changes: On September 16, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, etc. were 4.029, 4.638, 3.488 respectively. There were various changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the US was -0.010, and the yearly change was 0.319 [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields and Changes: On September 16, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, etc. were 3.560, 3.960, 2.000 respectively. There were also different changes in different time - spans [3]. Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - Exchange Rates and Changes: On September 16, 2025, the dollar - to - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.297, and there were percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For instance, the latest change was -0.37%, and the yearly change was -5.40% [3]. Stock Indices of Major Economies - Index Values and Changes: On September 16, 2025, the S&P 500 was 6606.760, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 45757.900, etc. There were percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the S&P 500 was -0.13%, and the yearly change was 22.16% [3]. Credit Bond Indices - Index Changes: The latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes of credit bond indices such as the US investment - grade credit bond index, the euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, etc. were presented. For example, the latest change in the US investment - grade credit bond index was 0.04%, and the yearly change was 4.72% [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing Prices and Changes: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3861.87, 4523.34, 2947.82 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [4]. Valuation - PE Ratios and Changes: The PE (TTM) ratios of CSI 300, SSE 50, and others were 14.09, 11.80, 34.32 respectively, with环比 changes [4]. Risk Premium - Risk Premium and Changes: The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 and German DAX were -0.39 and 2.50 respectively, with环比 changes [4]. Fund Flows - Fund Flow Values: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, etc. were provided. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was -305.93 [4]. Trading Volumes - Trading Volumes and Changes: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 23414.02, 6137.28, etc., with环比 changes [4]. Main Contract Basis and Premium/Discount - Basis and Premium/Discount: The basis and percentage of premium/discount of IF, IH, IC were given. For example, the basis of IF was -6.54, and the percentage was -0.14% [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices and Changes - Closing Prices and Percentage Changes: The closing prices of Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.000, 105.795, 107.680, 105.680 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5]. Fund Interest Rates - Interest Rates and Daily Changes: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M interest rates were 1.4778%, 1.4998%, 1.5530% respectively, with daily changes in basis points [5]
美股三大股指期货集体上涨,黄金逼近3700美元关口,美元持续下探
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-16 08:47
全球市场风险偏好持续升温,美股涨至历史新高之际,投资者聚焦今晚即将公布的零售数据,并为广泛预期的美联储年内首次降 息做准备。 周二,亚洲股市创下纪录高位,欧股开盘涨跌不一,美股三大股指期货集体上涨,黄金逼近3700美元关口,延续创纪录涨势,美 元兑所有主要货币跌至7月来最低水平。 8月零售销售数据预计增长0.2%,将为美联储决策提供关键参考。市场普遍预期周三将迎来25个基点降息,部分投资者不排除50 个基点的可能性。随着就业市场放缓迹象显现,政策制定者可能释放更加鸽派的信号。 | 名称 | 最新 最高 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 英国富时100 | 9,266.55 | 9,281.20 9,246.50 | -10.48 -0.11% | | 法国CAC40 | 7,890.62 | 7,894.13 7,862.38 | -6.31 -0.08% | | ■ 荷兰AEX | 921.06 | 922.66 919.91 | +1.93 +0.21% | | ■ 德国DAX30 | | 23,687.57 23,749.57 23,617.43 | -46.18 -0 ...
全球宏观资产市场-晴雨气候表
对冲研投· 2025-09-15 08:37
Core Insights - The article presents a comprehensive market monitoring dashboard covering multiple asset classes, including stocks, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, providing traders with indicators for trend, reversal, volatility, and overbought/oversold conditions [1]. Asset Classification - The assets are categorized into four main classes: Equity, FX, Commodities, and Crypto, each with specific indicators for analysis [2]. Key Assets and Recent Changes - Key assets to focus on include: - **Equity**: SP500_US and Nasdaq100_US are highlighted for their significant volatility and potential for trend continuation or reversal [1]. - **China Stocks**: CSI300_China and SSE_China are noted for their low valuations and potential rebound, albeit with high volatility [1]. - **Forex**: USDJPY and USDCNY are emphasized due to significant central bank policy differences, while EURUSD and GBPUSD are suitable for macro hedging [1]. - **Commodities**: Gold and CrudeWTI are driven by safe-haven demand and inflation expectations, while CopperHG and Soybean are sensitive to economic cycles and Chinese demand [1]. - **Cryptocurrency**: BTCUSD and ETHUSD are recognized for their high volatility and suitability for swing trading [1]. Potential Trading Opportunities - Trading opportunities are identified based on specific numerical indicators, such as extreme Sigma values indicating potential rebounds or trend continuations [3]. Suggested Operational Framework - Strategies include: - **Rebound Opportunities**: Identifying assets with low Sigma values and reversal signals for potential rebounds [4]. - **Trend Continuation**: Following assets where EMA20 is above EMA100, indicating an upward trend [4]. - **Volatility Strategies**: Utilizing high VolRank and rising ATR% for options strategies or breakout trades [4]. Risk Considerations - Risks include: - **Overbought Risks**: High Sigma values indicating potential short-term overheating [4]. - **Trend Reversal Risks**: Signals indicating potential reversals, especially with high deviation [4]. - **Liquidity/Volatility Risks**: Extreme market conditions requiring position control [4]. Multi-Asset Comparison and Risk Management - Emphasis on comparing assets within the same category and using multiple indicators for comprehensive analysis [4]. - Risk management is prioritized, with all trades requiring stop-loss measures based on volatility and drawdown metrics [4]. - The technical analysis should be complemented with macroeconomic factors such as central bank policies and geopolitical events [4].
波动到底是风险还是收益?一文说清各种应对波动的策略
雪球· 2025-09-15 07:49
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between volatility and risk, emphasizing that while volatility is often equated with risk, it can also represent potential returns depending on the investor's perspective [6][34]. Group 1: Academic Perspective on Volatility - Volatility is defined as risk in traditional finance, where it represents the uncertainty of future returns [7][9]. - The Sharpe Ratio is highlighted as a key metric for evaluating fund performance, taking into account the risk taken to achieve returns [8][10]. - Historical volatility is used to quantify risk, with higher volatility indicating greater risk and necessitating higher expected returns [11][12]. Group 2: Practical Perspective on Volatility - Warren Buffett and other value investors argue against equating volatility with risk, focusing instead on the risk of permanent capital loss [15][18]. - The article presents a dichotomy where risk-averse investors view volatility as something to avoid, while risk-seeking investors see it as an opportunity for profit [23][34]. - Different investment strategies are discussed, including those that embrace volatility for potential gains, such as grid trading and trend trading [31][32]. Group 3: Trading Perspective on Volatility - Volatility can be viewed as a tradable commodity, with options pricing reflecting historical volatility [26][27]. - The article explains that risk is a commodity that can be bought and sold, with different strategies catering to varying attitudes towards volatility [25][28]. - The concept of "volatility = returns" is explored, indicating that higher volatility can lead to greater profit opportunities for certain investors [22][24]. Group 4: Conclusion on Volatility - The article concludes that volatility is an inherent aspect of the financial world, influencing investor behavior and creating opportunities for profit [39][40]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding what can be controlled and what cannot in the context of volatility and investment strategies [38][39].