1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Aluminum is a good long - position allocation variety under the support of macro and fundamental prospects, and institutions are highly consistent in bullish on Shanghai Aluminum in 2026, with the target price pointed to the 25,000 yuan mark, and the peak may be higher this year [1][2][3] - Short - term capital boosts Shanghai Aluminum to hit historical highs, which deviates from the fundamentals. Speculative participation should be cautious, and aluminum smelters' selling hedging is cost - effective [3] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Performance in 2025 - 2026 - In 2025, precious metals led by gold had the largest annual market since 1979. At the end of the year, silver, platinum, etc. soared, and copper in non - ferrous metals rose over 35%, tin over 40%, while aluminum only rose 15% [1] - At the beginning of 2026, due to the US military action against Venezuela, precious metals strengthened again, and funds were allocated to aluminum, pushing Shanghai Aluminum to 24,000 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Policy Environment - In 2026, the commodity rise is driven by macro - easing and tight supply - demand expectations. The Fed may cut interest rates, and a dovish Fed chairman is likely to be appointed, maintaining the global easing trend [2] - In China, as the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", there are strong policy expectations. The government has issued policies on equipment renewal, consumer goods replacement, and grid construction, providing support for aluminum's traditional application scenarios [2] 3.3 Aluminum Market Supply and Demand - The demand for aluminum is expected to increase due to policy support, and the consumption scenarios are expanding. However, the supply is restricted, with domestic production capacity approaching the ceiling and overseas production capacity limited by electricity. There is a risk of over 500,000 tons of production suspension at a Mozambique aluminum plant in Q1, and the aluminum market is expected to be in short supply in 2026 with low inventory becoming the norm [2] 3.4 Investment Suggestions and Risks - Shanghai Aluminum's valuation is rising, but the fundamental reality shows weakness, and there is a risk of industrial negative feedback. Short - term speculation should be cautious, and aluminum smelters' selling hedging is cost - effective as the profit per ton of aluminum has soared to around 8,000 yuan [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the New Year's Day, the upward trend of traditional non - ferrous metals has become steeper, with aluminum and copper leading the gains, and the aluminum price has rapidly approached the historical peak. The current spot market for aluminum is weak, but it may have reached the worst state, and the basis spread is expected to bottom out [1]. - In the mid - 2026 supply - demand situation with supply constraints, diversified demand, tight balance, and low inventory - consumption ratio, the market environment can support the upward movement of the aluminum price center. The systematic capital linkage allocation in the sector also helps increase price elasticity, and this bull - market capital layout is earlier and faster. If the equity market starts the spring rally in the first quarter, the upward space of aluminum metal is still worth looking forward to [1]. - The importance of position management is increasing as the price volatility of aluminum at high levels is likely to expand. It is necessary to use options and other tools for risk hedging while keeping a futures bottom - position [1]. - Future risk points for a potential peak include the performance of overseas Al - related equity assets and downstream processing profit indicators [1]. Group 3: Option - related Suggestions - For investors with a long - position in futures, it is recommended to consider buying put options with a moderate period and moderate out - of - the - money degree to protect against the callback risk of long positions, or replace long futures positions with in - the - money call options to control the callback risk [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Aluminum - The market surplus pressure of alumina remains severe, and its price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash - cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton. The key to a trend - like rebound lies in subsequent capacity control policies or large - scale substantial production cuts [1]. - The strong macro and policy expectations provide a solid bottom for aluminum prices, but the weakening supply - demand fundamentals and inventory accumulation pressure will significantly limit the upside space. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum operating in the range of 23200 - 24400 yuan/ton [1]. Carbonate Lithium - The supply of carbonate lithium is expected to increase slightly, and downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. However, there is limited new driving force in essence. After the holiday, the news has significantly boosted the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough around 130,000 yuan [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22400 - 23400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw material supply, import window changes, and the actual stocking rhythm of downstream enterprises before the Spring Festival [3]. Tin - The market sentiment has fluctuated greatly recently, causing tin prices to fluctuate sharply. It is advisable to operate with caution, and subsequent attention should be paid to the macro situation and the recovery of the supply side [5]. Industrial Silicon - In January, industrial silicon is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is under pressure. It is still expected that the price of industrial silicon will fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton [7]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon has increased, and the futures price has risen and then fallen. In January, the demand is weak, and there is pressure for further production cuts to balance supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, and pay attention to the production cut situation and price adjustment acceptance [9]. Nickel - The recent expectation of Indonesia's increased control over nickel mines has boosted market sentiment, but the weak fundamentals still restrict the upside space of prices. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side operation, with the main reference range of 130,000 - 138,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a callback after the impact of the news is digested [10]. Stainless Steel - The supply pressure of stainless steel has eased slightly, and the cost support of ore and ferronickel has been strengthened, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 12800 - 13500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the ore - end news and downstream stocking [11]. Zinc - Affected by the Venezuela event, zinc prices rose sharply. The supply of domestic zinc concentrates is tight, and the supply pressure of refined zinc has been relieved. The demand side is performing well. In the short term, the price will fluctuate strongly in a warm macro - environment, and attention should be paid to import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventory changes [12]. Copper - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are still good, but in the short term, the previous sharp rise in prices has suppressed real demand. Although the current price is over - valued to some extent, it may still maintain a strong trend in a high - risk - preference environment, with the main contract paying attention to the 95500 - 96000 support [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum and Yangtze River A00 aluminum prices rose by 3.78% to 23310 yuan/ton; alumina prices in various regions remained unchanged [1]. - The import loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 47.7 yuan/ton to - 1931 yuan/ton [1]. - The monthly spreads of AL contracts showed different degrees of change [1]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of alumina, domestic electrolytic aluminum, and overseas electrolytic aluminum increased, while the import volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased and the export volume increased [1]. - The operating rates of some aluminum - related industries changed slightly, with the operating rate of alumina rising by 0.68% to 80.39% [1]. - The social inventories of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods increased, while the LME inventory decreased slightly [1]. Carbonate Lithium Price and Spread - The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, etc. all increased to varying degrees [2]. - The monthly spreads of contracts showed different degrees of change [2]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of carbonate lithium increased, while the demand decreased. The import volume decreased and the export volume increased significantly [2]. - The production capacity of carbonate lithium increased in January, and the operating rate in December rose by 3.57% to 58% [2]. - The total inventory of carbonate lithium decreased in December [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM ADC12 in various regions rose, and the price differences between refined and scrap aluminum also increased [3]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [3]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and scrap aluminum increased, while the import and export volumes of unforged aluminum alloy ingots changed slightly [3]. - The operating rates of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased, while the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly [3]. - The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly [3]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin rose by 1.58%, and the import loss decreased by 15.50% [5]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed significantly [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, the import of tin ore increased significantly, and in December, the production of SMM refined tin decreased slightly [5]. - The export volume of refined tin in November increased significantly, while the export volume of Indonesian refined tin decreased to zero [5]. - The operating rates of SMM refined tin and SMM solder showed different degrees of change [5]. - The SHEF and social inventories of tin decreased [5]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis increased [7]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In December, the national production of industrial silicon decreased slightly, with production in Xinjiang increasing and production in Yunnan and Sichuan decreasing [7]. - The national operating rate decreased slightly, with the operating rate in Xinjiang increasing and the operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan decreasing [7]. - The production of organic silicon DMC decreased, while the production of polysilicon increased slightly [7]. - The export volume of industrial silicon increased [7]. - The inventories of Xinjiang factories and social inventories increased slightly [7]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average prices of N - type poly - feedstock and N - type granular silicon increased, and the basis of N - type material decreased [9]. - The prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components changed slightly [9]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The main contract of futures rose by 1.25%, and the monthly spreads of contracts changed [9]. Fundamental Data - The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon showed different trends, and the import volume decreased while the export volume increased significantly [9]. - The production and demand of silicon wafers decreased, and the import and export volumes also decreased [9]. - The inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - The prices of various types of nickel increased, and the import loss of futures decreased significantly [10]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [10]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased, while the import volume increased [10]. - The SHFE and social inventories of nickel increased, while the LME inventory increased slightly [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan changed slightly, and the futures - spot price difference increased [11]. - The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore, ferrochrome, and high - nickel pig iron changed slightly [11]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [11]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased slightly, while the production in Indonesia increased slightly [11]. - The import volume of stainless steel decreased, and the export volume increased [11]. - The social inventories of 300 - series stainless steel decreased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse inventory decreased slightly [11]. Zinc Price and Spread - The prices of SMM 0 zinc ingots in various regions rose, and the import loss decreased slightly [12]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [12]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of refined zinc decreased, the import volume decreased slightly, and the export volume increased significantly [12]. - The operating rates of galvanizing, zinc die - casting alloy, and zinc oxide showed different degrees of change [12]. - The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased, while the LME inventory decreased slightly [12]. Copper Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper, SMM wet - process copper, etc. rose, and the import loss increased [13]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [13]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased, and the import volume decreased slightly [13]. - The import copper concentrate index decreased slightly, and the inventory of copper concentrates in domestic mainstream ports decreased [13]. - The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod decreased [13]. - The domestic social inventory, SHFE inventory, and COMEX inventory of copper increased, while the LME inventory decreased [13].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing a significant price surge, driven by favorable domestic and international macroeconomic conditions, despite some short-term demand weakness and supply constraints [1][2][4][5]. Group 1: Domestic Macro Factors - Recent domestic policies, including the 2026 national subsidy plan and the promotion of high-quality electricity grid development, are expected to boost aluminum demand [1]. - The automotive sector is seeing a rebound in orders and production due to new model launches and upcoming replacement subsidy policies, which supports aluminum demand [4]. Group 2: International Macro Factors - The divergence in the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicates ongoing market speculation regarding interest rate changes, which may influence commodity prices, including aluminum [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Venezuela, have raised concerns about global trade and supply chain stability, potentially impacting aluminum supply [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper-aluminum ratio has significantly exceeded historical norms, leading to increased speculation in the aluminum market as investors anticipate a correction [3]. - Despite a seasonal decline in demand, the automotive sector and the rapid expansion of energy storage systems are expected to provide a counterbalance to the overall weakness in aluminum consumption [4][5]. - Current aluminum production capacity is constrained, limiting supply growth, while recent disruptions in overseas supply have further tightened the market [4][6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - While short-term demand may be weak, the long-term outlook for aluminum remains positive due to stable growth in transportation and energy storage sectors, as well as potential shifts in material usage from copper to aluminum [5][6]. - The financial attributes of aluminum are currently driving prices more than its commodity attributes, with significant capital inflow into the aluminum market post-holiday [5].

来源：上海有色网 元旦假期归来首个交易日，沪铝主连在经历前6个交易日的接连上涨之后继续跳空高开，盘中一度涨逾 4%，最高上探至23780元/吨，刷新2022年3月以来的新高。截至午间收盘，沪铝主连以3.67%的涨幅报 23575元/吨。 消息面上，委内瑞拉方面的政治冲突也一度引发市场热议，公开资料显示，委内瑞拉铝土矿资源量约 34.8亿吨，已探明储量13.3亿吨，占全球第三。但需要注意的是，委内瑞拉铝土矿资源开发勘探程度较 低，且其并不是主要的铝市场产出国和消费地，因此，该地的相关冲突并不会对整体产业链产生直接影 响。整体而言，该事件虽然会对市场产生一定程度上的情绪面影响，但对实际的铝市场供需影响较小。 至于当前实际的铝市场，据SMM了解，近期铝价维持高位，下游需求端受铝价高位抑制以及环保限产 的共同制约，铝水比例显著下滑，下游型材等多个板块开工率延续弱势，现货消费表现疲软。 伦铝方面也在元旦假期期间继续上扬并成功突破3000美元/吨的整数关口，今日开盘之后也继续上涨， 盘中最高一度上探至3069美元/吨，刷新2022年5月以来的新高。 且库存近期也呈现累库态势，据SMM数据显示，2025年年底，随着前期沸沸 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant divergence within the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by geopolitical risks and supply constraints, leading to a strong performance in copper, aluminum, and precious metals, while lead prices show a weak rebound lacking fundamental support [1][2] - The surge in copper and aluminum prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions from key production areas, which have created a narrative of scarcity in industrial metals, further fueled by positive market sentiment and capital inflows [1][3] - Lead prices experienced a daily increase of 125 yuan/ton to 17,425 yuan/ton; however, this rebound is characterized as "virtual fire," primarily driven by market sentiment rather than improvements in the underlying fundamentals, as evidenced by weak demand and increasing inventory pressures [1][2] Group 2 - Leading companies in the sector are adopting different strategies in response to market conditions, with copper, aluminum, and precious metals firms focusing on capacity expansion and resource allocation, while lead industry players are concentrating on cost control and cash flow management to navigate the current phase of industry pressure [2][3] - The short-term outlook suggests that copper and aluminum prices are likely to remain strong due to supportive supply narratives and macroeconomic expectations, while lead prices are expected to face downward pressure from rising inventories and weak demand, with a projected trading range of 17,100 to 17,500 yuan/ton [3][4] - The overall market for non-ferrous metals is characterized by a mix of strong and weak performances, necessitating a careful approach to investment opportunities, particularly in distinguishing between strong commodities like copper and aluminum and weaker ones like lead [4]

Group 1: Aluminum - The price of alumina remains stable at 2685 yuan/ton, with metallurgical-grade alumina production capacity reaching 88.689 million tons/year and a weekly operating rate increase of 0.55 percentage points to 80.39% [1][3] - The short-term supply-demand fundamentals for alumina continue to show an oversupply, with inventories accumulating and spot prices remaining weak [1][3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices increased by 1.59% to 22,700 yuan/ton, while London aluminum prices rose by 1.79% to 3,010 USD/ton, with electrolytic aluminum margins increasing by 7.18% to 6,862 yuan/ton [3] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices experienced fluctuations after reaching historical highs, with weekly changes in London copper, Shanghai copper, and US copper prices being +2.39%, -0.49%, and -2.62% respectively [2] - Domestic copper inventories saw a significant accumulation, with social inventories of electrolytic copper at 238,900 tons, a 23.40% increase [2] - The supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage due to insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and frequent supply disruptions [2] Group 3: Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 5.90% to 118,500 yuan/ton, while lithium spodumene prices rose by 3.89% to 1,548 USD/ton, indicating a positive trend in lithium prices [4] - The supply of lithium carbonate increased by 1.2% to 22,400 tons, with SMM weekly inventory decreasing by 0.2% to 109,600 tons, marking 20 consecutive weeks of inventory reduction [4] - The demand for lithium batteries remains strong, with expectations for continued growth in lithium demand despite seasonal trends [4] Group 4: Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising, with MB cobalt increasing by 1.53% to 24.88 USD/pound and domestic cobalt prices rising by 10.11% to 490,000 yuan/ton [5] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has lifted its cobalt export ban, implementing a quota system instead, which may affect the supply chain in the near future [5] - The structural tightness in cobalt raw materials remains unchanged, supporting the outlook for rising cobalt prices [5]

铝：价格后发者的追赶 SAC 执证编号：S0080525070002 xuan6.zhao@cicc.com.cn 有色金属聚焦 证券研究报告 2025.12.28 赵烜 分析员 王炙鹿 分析员 郭朝辉 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080523030003 zhilu.wang@cicc.com.cn 本轮有色金属的上升浪潮中，铝价的表现大幅逊于铜价。年初以来 LME 铜 3 个月合约上涨 27.2%，而 LME 铝 3 个月合约仅上涨 11.2%，铜铝比价一路上升至 4.4。我们认为其背后主要有两方面因素，一是 宏观顺风下铜具有更强的金融属性，二是美国虹吸带来全球库存失衡的催化（详见我们的报告《铜：美 铜虹吸，需求前置，易涨难跌》）。但我们认为从平衡表的角度来看，26 年铝或表现得比铜更紧，且流 动性利好带来的金融属性顺风或已被市场充分计价。我们判断协整关系并不会轻易失效，铝价或将补涨 以带动铜铝比向中枢回归。 从逻辑上来说，供给增速接近，而需求结构高度相似，且能互为替代的两个品种间价格往往存在很强的 联动性。观察 2017 年国内电解铝行业供给侧改革以来的日度价格数据，我们可以发现铜铝价格长期高 度同向 ...

| 第一部分 前言概要 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | 3 | | 【市场展望】 | 3 | | 【策略推荐】 | 3 | | 第二部分 供给刚性叠加全球短缺 | 铝价存趋势格局 4 | | 一、2025 年铝市场回顾 | 4 | | 二、2026-2030 年全球电解铝供应展望 | 5 | | 三、铝消费虽低增速但存亮点 | 10 | | 四、关于铝的确定性与不确定性 | 17 | | 五、供需平衡与库存预期 | 18 | | 六、宏观与基本面共同影响铝价 | 21 | | 第三部分 | 再生铸造铝合金预计随铝价运行为主 22 | | 一、再生铝合金供需方面 | 22 | | 二、废铝原料方面 | 25 | | 三、再生铝合金价格及价差 | 26 | | 第四部分 氧化铝过剩格局下 寻底路漫漫 | 27 | | 一、2025 年氧化铝市场回顾 | 28 | | 二、氧化铝供应展望 | 29 | | 三、氧化铝供需平衡预期 | 32 | | | | 有色板块研发报告 铝系品种年度报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 铝价存趋势格局 氧化铝寻底路漫漫 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The report provides weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, analyzing their market conditions, supply - demand situations, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - Market: LME was absent during Christmas, while domestic Shanghai copper increased positions to a record level, with the price reaching a maximum of 102,000 yuan, and LME copper jumped to a maximum of 12,900 dollars after opening. The high price may face adjustment pressure but could also benefit from raw material shortages and other factors. The target price is adjusted upwards, with LME copper at about 13,100 dollars and Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [1]. - Domestic Supply - Demand: The SMM spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong widened, and the social inventory increased. High copper prices affected the pre - Spring Festival start - up of copper - related intermediate products, but overseas price differences mitigated the impact of the domestic off - season [1]. - Overseas: Congo (Kinshasa) suspended the processing of artisanal copper and cobalt mines, and waiting for overseas investment banks to update the 2026 copper target price [1]. - Strategy: Observe or try an option combination of selling call options at an exercise price of 104,000 yuan and buying put options at 98,000 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Industry: Policy guidance on alumina and copper smelting industries was issued, but it will take time to implement. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is slowly increasing, while the supply of alumina is in surplus and needs large - scale production cuts to stabilize [1]. - Demand: The weekly start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.6% to 60.8%, and the apparent consumption was basically flat year - on - year [1]. - Inventory and Spot: Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased, and spot discounts widened. The processing fee of South China aluminum rods remained stable [1]. - Trend: Shanghai aluminum follows the sector's fluctuations, with limited fundamental drivers, and the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Bulls can participate based on the MA40 daily line [1]. Zinc - Market: The external market was in high - level shock last week, and Shanghai zinc repeatedly tested 23,000 yuan. The supply is tight, but the end - of - year consumption is weak [1]. - Spot and Supply: LME inventory increased, and the squeeze - out atmosphere declined. Domestic and imported ore TC decreased, and the zinc concentrate import window opened. The supply - side pressure decreased, and there is strong support at around 22,800 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc [1]. - Consumption: After the zinc price fell slightly last week, downstream restocking increased, and the start - up rate rebounded. The market is not pessimistic about January's zinc consumption [1]. - Trend: With strong cost support, reduced supply - side pressure, and resilient consumption expectations, Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - Market: The main contract of Shanghai lead rose 4% last week but encountered resistance at around 17,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot and Supply: LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the spot import window opened. The supply of primary and secondary lead has different situations, and the overall supply tension has not been alleviated [1]. - Consumption: Most battery enterprises stopped purchasing raw lead ingots at the end of the year, and the spot trading was light [1]. - Trend: Shanghai lead will fluctuate in the range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Futures: Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures had active trading after rising [1]. - Macro and Demand: The 2026 nickel ore quota in Indonesia decreased significantly, and the downstream purchasing willingness weakened at the end of the year. The profit of stainless steel was repaired, and the social inventory decreased [1]. - Spot and Supply: The premiums of different nickel products varied, and the upstream prices began to rebound. The inventories of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel all decreased [1]. - Strategy: Wait for the end of market disturbances and mainly observe in the short term [1]. Tin - Market: The tin market fluctuated at a high level last week, and the market sentiment followed silver and copper prices [1]. - Supply: There is a lack of new information on the situation in eastern Congo (Kinshasa), and attention should be paid to the mining conference in Wa State around the New Year [1]. - Consumption: High tin prices suppressed consumption, and the domestic social inventory increased [1]. - Trend: High - level risks are emphasized. It is recommended to participate in selling out - of - the - money call options with an exercise price of 350,000 yuan and pay attention to the callback range [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures: The lithium carbonate futures rose sharply last week and then tumbled on Monday [1]. - Spot: The spot price of Shanghai electric carbon strengthened, but the market trading was light. The downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited [1]. - Macro and Demand: The demand maintained strong resilience, but the downstream demand decreased slightly this month [1]. - Supply: The total market inventory decreased, and the ore price was strong [1]. - Trend: The lithium carbonate futures price limit - down on Monday, entering the trend - stopping stage, and risk prevention should be noted [1]. Industrial Silicon - Price: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated upward, driven by the expected end - of - month production cuts and the demand for price support at low prices [1]. - Cost: The price of silicon coal, the core raw material, remained stable [1]. - Supply - Demand: The weekly supply decreased slightly, and the start - up rates in major production areas declined. The production of polysilicon and the start - up rate of organic silicon DMC have different situations [1]. - Inventory: The social inventory in major areas increased slightly [1]. - Trend: The demand still has pressure, but the decline has narrowed. The futures price may remain firm, but the upward space is limited [1]. Polysilicon - Price: The futures price rose and then fell last week, with policy support but also affected by regulatory strengthening and the approaching holiday. The spot price increased slightly [1]. - Supply - Demand: The supply increased slightly, and the demand was affected by rising auxiliary material costs. The price increase has not led to actual transactions [1]. - Inventory: The manufacturer's inventory increased [1]. - Trend: The market is in a "strong expectation, weak reality" game, and the futures price will probably fluctuate at a high level. Risk control should be noted [1].