Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the holiday, the A-share market showed a positive start, but there were also signs of a pullback after the rally. The technology sector remained active, and it is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 at the strike price of around 6800 when the price pulls back [2][4]. - The bond market started well after the holiday, but the sentiment may be suppressed by the risk appetite. The short-term bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [6]. - Precious metals prices first rose and then fell. Silver hit a new high due to supply shortages, and it is recommended to maintain a cautious and low - buying strategy for precious metals in the fourth quarter [9][10]. - The shipping index of European routes showed a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - contract [12]. - Copper prices are expected to be strong due to supply shortages, while aluminum oxide prices are expected to be weak due to supply surpluses [14][20]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile, nickel prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [31][36][40]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - Steel prices are expected to be stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils [45]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [47]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contracts of both at low prices [51][54]. - The price of domestic meal is suppressed by supply pressure, and the M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [57]. - The price of live pigs is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on the futures at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage on relevant contracts [59]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: After the holiday, A - share major indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.32%, and the cyclical sectors performed strongly, while the consumer sectors declined [2]. - Futures situation: The four major stock index futures contracts rose, and the basis spreads of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly [3]. - News: Domestic consumption increased during the holiday, and overseas, the Fed showed a willingness to cut interest rates [3]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market increased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [4]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 at the strike price of around 6800 when the price pulls back [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed up across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds mostly declined [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the inter - bank market funds were relatively loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: The short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: Geopolitical risks eased, and precious metals prices first rose and then fell. Silver hit a new high due to supply shortages [7][9]. - Future outlook: In the fourth quarter, precious metals prices are expected to be bullish, and it is recommended to maintain a cautious and low - buying strategy [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index of European Routes - Spot quotation: The freight rates of different shipping companies are provided [11]. - Index situation: The shipping index of European routes declined, and the freight rates of different routes also decreased [11]. - Fundamentals: The global container capacity increased, and the demand in different regions varied [11]. - Logic: The futures market was weakly volatile, and the price increase of shipping companies will affect the main contract price [12]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to go long on the 12 - contract [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: The price of electrolytic copper rose, but the downstream procurement willingness was weak [12]. - Macro: The US government was shut down, and the market expected the Fed to implement monetary easing [13]. - Supply: The supply of copper mines was tight, and the production of refined copper was expected to decline [14]. - Demand: The demand for copper was expected to slow down marginally, but it still had strong resilience [15]. - Inventory: The inventories of LME, COMEX, and domestic social copper increased [16]. - Logic: Weak US dollars and supply shortages drove the copper price up [17]. - Operation suggestion: Hold long positions, and pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [17]. Aluminum Oxide - Spot: The price of aluminum oxide declined, and the overall trading sentiment was weak [17]. - Supply: The domestic and overseas supply of aluminum oxide increased, and the demand was weak [20]. - Inventory: The inventory of aluminum oxide was high, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [19]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated widely, and the short - term price was under pressure [20]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2850 - 3050 [20]. Aluminum - Spot: The price of aluminum rose, but the high price suppressed the procurement willingness [21]. - Supply: The production of electrolytic aluminum was expected to increase slightly [21]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum showed structural characteristics, and the high price suppressed the orders of small and medium - sized enterprises [23]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased after the holiday [22]. - Logic: Macro factors supported the aluminum price, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [23]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 20700 - 21300 [23]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: The price of aluminum alloy rose [25]. - Supply: The supply of recycled aluminum was tight, and the开工 rate was affected [25]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum alloy recovered moderately, but the terminal demand was weak [25]. - Inventory: The inventory of aluminum alloy continued to increase [26]. - Logic: The futures price rose with the aluminum price, and the cost supported the price [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 20200 - 20800. Consider arbitrage if the price difference is over 500 [27][28]. Zinc - Spot: The price of zinc rose, and the trading was light [28]. - Supply: The supply of zinc was loose, and the production of zinc ingots increased [29]. - Demand: The demand for zinc was weak, and the开工 rate of primary processing industries declined [30]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of zinc decreased, and the LME inventory increased [31]. - Logic: Low inventory and weak US dollars supported the zinc price, and it is expected to fluctuate [31]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21800 - 22800 [31]. Tin - Spot: The price of tin rose significantly, but the trading was light [31]. - Supply: The supply of tin was affected by Indonesia, and the import volume decreased [32]. - Demand: The demand for tin was weak, and the traditional consumption areas were sluggish [33]. - Inventory: The LME inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased [33]. - Logic: Supply disruptions and the strength of the semiconductor sector drove the tin price up, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [34]. - Operation suggestion: Wait and see [34]. Nickel - Spot: The price of nickel rose [35]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a high level and was expected to increase slightly [35]. - Demand: The demand for nickel in different sectors varied, and the demand for stainless steel was weak [35]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory of nickel was high, and the domestic social inventory was stable [35]. - Logic: Macro factors and policy expectations supported the nickel price, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [36]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 120000 - 126000 [36]. Stainless Steel - Spot: The price of stainless steel rose slightly [37]. - Raw materials: The price of raw materials was firm, and the cost supported the price [37]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel was expected to increase, and the supply pressure existed [38]. - Inventory: The social inventory of stainless steel decreased slowly [38]. - Logic: The futures price rose slightly, and the downstream demand did not meet expectations [39]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 12600 - 13200 [40]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: The price of lithium carbonate was stable, and the trading was light [40]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate increased, and the supply was affected by new projects [41]. - Demand: The demand for lithium carbonate was stable and optimistic, but the marginal increase needed to be tracked [41]. - Inventory: The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased in all links [42]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated, and the supply and demand were in a tight balance [43]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 - 75,000 [43]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable during the holiday and rebounded slightly after the holiday [43]. - Cost and profit: The cost of steel had support, and the profit declined [44]. - Supply: The production of steel decreased slightly during the holiday, and the overall production was high [45]. - Demand: The demand for steel showed seasonal improvement, and the export volume was high [45]. - Inventory: The inventory of steel increased during the holiday and is expected to decrease seasonally [45]. - View: Steel prices are expected to be stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils [45]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of iron ore rose [46]. - Futures: The price of iron ore futures rose, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened [46]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties was provided [46]. - Demand: The demand for iron ore decreased slightly [46]. - Supply: The global shipment of iron ore decreased, and the arrival volume increased [46]. - Inventory: The port inventory of iron ore increased, and the daily dredging volume decreased [47]. - View: Iron ore prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [47][48]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The coking coal futures rebounded, and the spot price declined slightly [49]. - Supply: The production of coking coal decreased, and the inventory decreased [50]. - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased slightly [50]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coking coal decreased [50]. - View: Coking coal prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [51]. Coke - Futures and spot: The coke futures rebounded, and the spot price of the factory was stable while the port price declined [54]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was negative [53]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased slightly [53]. - Demand: The demand for coke decreased slightly [53]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coke decreased [53]. - View: Coke prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [54]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The price of domestic meal increased, and the trading volume of soybean meal increased [55]. - Fundamental news: The export sales report of US soybeans was postponed, and the export of Brazilian soybeans was expected to increase [55][56]. - Market outlook: The price of domestic meal is suppressed by supply pressure, and the M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [57]. Live Pigs - Spot situation: The price of live pigs declined [58]. - Market data: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens declined [58]. - Market outlook: The price of live pigs is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on the futures at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage on relevant contracts [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold price may experience a short - term decline due to the end of the Middle - East conflict and the full pricing of positive factors [12][13]. - The US dollar index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [17][18]. - US stock index futures are likely to maintain a relatively strong trend after the impact of the government shutdown event subsides [21]. - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to maintain a short - term high - level trend, and it is recommended to allocate stock index futures evenly [26][27]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate and bottom out in the short term, and it is advisable to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [28][29]. - Palm oil prices are expected to continue to rise due to Indonesia's biodiesel policy [31]. - ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar are expected to have a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [36][37]. - Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and short - term callback risks need to be noted [39][40]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to continue to decline seasonally [41]. - Iron ore prices are relatively resistant to decline in the short term, but steel mills may face production cut pressure in mid - to late October [42]. - The price of red dates may rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the acquisition price in the production area [45]. - The spot price of polysilicon may remain flat, and the price of components is expected to fluctuate in the short term [47][48]. - It is advisable to go long on industrial silicon on dips, but be cautious when chasing highs [52]. - For lead, it is advisable to wait for a pullback to lay out medium - term long positions and pay attention to positive spread arbitrage opportunities [53]. - For zinc, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and there are positive spread arbitrage opportunities [55]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and the reverse spread arbitrage opportunity between LC2511 - 2512 [57]. - The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to take a long - position approach [60][61]. - The downward space of the LPG contract is limited, and it is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to shrink PDH profits [64]. - The CEA price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [66]. - The natural gas price is recommended to be treated with a bearish mindset [68]. - The downward space of the caustic soda futures price may be limited [71]. - The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly [73]. - The PVC price is difficult to decline further, and attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [76]. - The supply - demand contradiction of bottle chips may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and there is pressure on processing fees [78]. - It is advisable to stop profiting on short positions of urea gradually [81]. - It is advisable to stop profiting on positions to shrink the styrene - benzene spread [83]. - It is advisable to short sell soda ash on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [85]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting soda ash 2601 [86]. - The container freight rate index 12 - contract is recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset [88][89]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Middle - East cease - fire agreement and full pricing of positive factors lead to a high - level correction of gold prices. Gold prices may fall due to short - term profit - taking by bulls [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump may impose more sanctions on Russia, and the Fed is cautious about further interest rate cuts. The US dollar index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [14][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - TSMC's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations. Amid the vacuum of macro data, the market is sensitive to AI industry news. After the impact of the government shutdown event subsides, US stock index futures are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend [19][20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3900 points, reaching a new high in nearly a decade. The stock market showed strong sentiment on the first trading day after the holiday, and it is recommended to allocate stock index futures evenly [22][26][27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 612 billion yuan. Due to weak terminal demand, the bond market strengthened against the stock market. It is expected to oscillate and bottom out in the short term, and it is advisable to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia plans to implement the mandatory B50 biodiesel plan next year, which will tighten the global palm oil supply - demand pattern. Palm oil prices are expected to continue to rise [30][31]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar production was strong in the first half of September, but the high - temperature and drought weather may lead to a decrease in production later. ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar are expected to have a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [35][36][37]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The sales volume of heavy - duty trucks and the CMI index increased in September. After the holiday, the steel price continued to oscillate, and the market entered the peak - season demand verification period. Short - term callback risks need to be noted [38][39][40]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - The supply of thermal coal was not loose during the National Day, but the demand was seasonally weak. The price is expected to continue to decline seasonally [41]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Brazilian mining company Minerita signed a contract with Metso. Iron ore prices are relatively resistant to decline in the short term, but steel mills may face production cut pressure in mid - to late October [42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - Red dates in Xinjiang are entering the drying period. The price of the futures main contract rose after the holiday. The current inventory is at a relatively high level, and the price may rebound in the short term [43][44][45]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - India imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese solar cells and components. The polysilicon spot price may remain flat, and the component price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [46][47][48]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Two departments aimed to regulate price competition. The seasonal inventory change of industrial silicon is not obvious. It is advisable to go long on dips, but be cautious when chasing highs [50][52]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead was at a discount, and the domestic lead inventory decreased. The price of lead is expected to oscillate and rise. It is advisable to wait for a pullback to lay out medium - term long positions and pay attention to positive spread arbitrage opportunities [53]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc was at a premium, and the domestic zinc inventory decreased slightly. The zinc price is recommended to be treated with a wait - and - see attitude in the short term, and there are positive spread arbitrage opportunities [54][55]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zangge Mining's subsidiary obtained mining rights. The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of strong reality and weak expectation. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and the reverse spread arbitrage opportunity between LC2511 - 2512 [56][57]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Indonesia introduced policies to help SMEs obtain mining rights, and Teck Resources lowered its copper production forecast. The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to take a long - position approach [58][59][60]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of Middle - East LPG changed, and some PDH devices had maintenance plans. The downward space of the LPG contract is limited, and it is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to shrink PDH profits [62][63][64]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price increased slightly. The carbon market supply - demand structure is balanced and loose, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [65][66]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory increased. The natural gas price is recommended to be treated with a bearish mindset [67][68]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong was adjusted flexibly after the holiday. The downward space of the caustic soda futures price may be limited [70][71]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was mostly stable. The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly [72][73]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price decreased. The price is difficult to decline further, and attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [74][76]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips was adjusted slightly. The supply - demand contradiction of bottle chips may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and there is pressure on processing fees [77][78]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory increased. It is advisable to stop profiting on short positions of urea gradually [79][81]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports increased. It is advisable to stop profiting on positions to shrink the styrene - benzene spread [82][83]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased. It is advisable to short sell soda ash on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [84][85]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased significantly. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting soda ash 2601 [85][86]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The throughput of major ports increased from January to August. The container freight rate index 12 - contract is recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset [87][88][89].

Group 1: Agricultural Achievements - Sichuan has maintained national leadership in the production of 15 agricultural products, including pigs and rapeseed, contributing significantly to national food security [1][2] - The total grain production in 2024 is projected to reach 726.8 billion jin, maintaining a stable output above 700 billion jin for five consecutive years, with a historical high in both total and per unit yield [2] Group 2: Industrial Growth - The annual growth rate of industrial added value in Sichuan is 6.6%, with total industrial added value increasing from 1.34 trillion yuan to 1.79 trillion yuan, elevating its national ranking to seventh [1][2] - Research and development investments in large-scale industrial enterprises have increased by 50%, with R&D intensity rising by 41%, while the profit margin for these enterprises stands at 7.3%, ranking first among the top ten economic provinces [2] Group 3: Service Sector Development - The service sector's contribution to GDP has risen from 52.4% in 2020 to 56%, with its contribution to economic growth increasing from 42.5% to 60.5% [1][3] - Sichuan's service sector has shown significant growth, achieving its "14th Five-Year Plan" goals a year ahead of schedule [3]

Core Insights - The Sichuan provincial government has reported significant achievements in building a modern industrial system during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting steady growth in industrial scale and quality [1] Industrial Growth - Since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," the annual growth rate of Sichuan's industrial added value has been 6.6%, increasing from 1.34 trillion yuan to 1.79 trillion yuan, elevating its national ranking to 7th [3] - Research and development (R&D) investment and intensity in large-scale industrial enterprises have increased by 50% and 41%, respectively [3] - Revenue from green and low-carbon industries now accounts for 28.2% of the total industrial revenue, with energy consumption per unit of added value decreasing by 15.4% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3] Industry Transformation - Sichuan is focusing on upgrading traditional industries while simultaneously developing emerging and future industries, with electronic information, food and textiles, and energy and chemicals each surpassing the trillion-yuan mark [3] - The province is actively developing 17 key industrial chains, including artificial intelligence and aerospace, and is fostering 25 new industrial tracks, such as robotics and quantum technology [3] Innovation and Technology - Sichuan has increased investment in technological innovation, establishing 1,819 national and provincial enterprise technology centers, the highest in Western China [4] - The province has undertaken nearly 30 national major science and technology projects and has launched 62 engineering technology innovation projects [4] - Notable achievements include the mass delivery of the Y-20 and C919 aircraft, the development of the world's first gallium nitride quantum light source chip, and the launch of the first hydrogen-powered regional train [4] Investment and Development - Sichuan has implemented over 15,000 manufacturing projects since the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan," driving manufacturing investment beyond 2 trillion yuan, with both manufacturing and industrial investments maintaining double-digit growth [4] Digital and Green Transformation - The artificial intelligence industry in Sichuan is projected to exceed 120 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of over 30% [5] - The digital transformation coverage among large-scale industrial enterprises has increased by over 20 percentage points, with plans for full coverage by the end of 2027 [5] - Sichuan has cultivated 745 national and provincial green factories and 100 green industrial parks, leading in the number of such facilities in Western China [5] Industrial Landscape - As of now, Sichuan has 19,900 large-scale industrial enterprises, 134 publicly listed industrial companies, and has nurtured 486 national specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises [5]

Group 1: Domestic Consumption and Travel Market - During the double holiday period, the domestic consumption and travel market showed strong recovery momentum, with an average daily cross-regional flow of 304 million people, up 6.3% year-on-year, reaching a historical high for the same period [1] - Self-driving travel dominated, with an average daily flow of over 240 million small passenger cars on highways, accounting for about 80% of total travel [1] - The increase in electric vehicle travel significantly boosted the payment amount for charging stations, which rose by over 40% year-on-year [1] - Railway and civil aviation passenger volumes steadily recovered, with the "high-speed rail + airplane" travel model gaining popularity [1] - Outbound tourism saw a notable rebound, with an average of over 2 million inbound and outbound travelers per day during the holiday, up 7% year-on-year [1] - New trends in destination choices emerged, such as "taste tours" focusing on food and "small town tours" emphasizing cost-effectiveness, indicating strong consumption potential in lower-tier markets [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals continued to lead the commodity market rebound, while the agricultural products sector showed weaker recovery [2] - Gold, supported by fundamentals and macro disturbances, has seen a strategic shift in central bank purchasing behavior, with China's central bank increasing gold reserves for 11 consecutive months, reaching approximately 2303.5 tons by the end of September [2] - The ongoing growth in official demand is positioning gold as a "timeless asset," reflecting concerns over the U.S. dollar credit system and geopolitical uncertainties [2] - Silver has strengthened relative to gold due to expectations of preventive interest rate cuts, with its dual role as a financial and industrial asset providing greater elasticity [3] - In the industrial metals sector, the copper market is undergoing a fundamental shift due to rising resource nationalism, impacting supply stability and costs [4] - Supply growth for copper is expected to decline from 1.8% to below 1.5% in the next 2-3 years, while demand from electric vehicles and renewable energy is projected to maintain a growth rate of 2.2%-2.5% [5] - The oil market is facing a different scenario, with OPEC+ implementing a gradual production increase strategy, potentially leading to a surplus of 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day by 2026 [5]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market trends of various sectors during the National Day holiday in 2025, including macro - colored, energy and chemical, agricultural products, and black sectors. Most sectors show a complex situation of supply - demand imbalance, with some facing supply pressure and others having weak demand. Market trends are affected by factors such as policies, international macro - situations, and seasonal characteristics, and most sectors are expected to show short - term oscillatory trends [2][8][21]. Summary by Sector Macro - Colored Sector - **Stock Index**: A - share market showed strong growth before the holiday, up 6.7%, hitting a high since 1987. Policies are expected to attract incremental funds [2]. - **Copper**: International macro - situation fluctuates greatly due to the US government debt issue and political changes in other countries. Gold, silver, copper, and aluminum prices rise, while there are no major domestic changes [2]. - **Zinc**: Domestic demand in the peak season is lower than expected, and the supply pressure is still large. Although LME zinc rebounds during the holiday, SHFE zinc is under pressure at high levels [3]. - **Lead**: LME lead fluctuates widely during the holiday. Domestic lead supply pressure increases, and demand in the peak season is not good, with a weak oscillatory trend expected [4]. - **Tin**: LME tin rises during the holiday. Supply is tight due to slow mine resumption in Myanmar and disruptions in Indonesia. The tight supply pattern is expected to continue until mid - month [5]. - **Gold and Silver**: Precious metals rise during the holiday, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and international macro - uncertainties. However, gold is in an overbought state [6]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **PTA**: Oil prices fall and then rebound during the holiday. PTA has low processing fees, weak cost support, and insufficient downstream demand, expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **MEG**: There are many changes in domestic and overseas devices. Supply pressure is large, and cost drive is poor, with prices expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are expected to oscillate weakly following raw materials, with limited processing fee improvement space [8][9]. - **Urea**: The market is weak during the holiday. Supply remains high, demand is weak, and the market is expected to be under pressure [10]. - **Paper Pulp**: The market is stable during the holiday. Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The market is expected to be under pressure in the short term [11]. - **PVC**: There is a gap between policy expectations and fundamentals. Supply pressure is not relieved, demand is weak, and it is difficult to find positive factors [12]. - **Glass**: The market shows a trend of rising first and then falling. Supply may tighten, but demand is insufficient after the holiday, and fundamental positives are not sustainable [12][13]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is under pressure. The price lacks upward momentum in the long term [14]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and prices are under pressure, but there is some support from alumina's demand expectations [15]. - **Rubber**: Typhoon may reduce supply, but terminal demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [15]. - **PX**: Supply increases, demand is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on downstream demand and profit changes [16][17]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices fall before the holiday. Downstream demand is not as expected, and there is an over - supply expectation [18]. - **Styrene**: Prices fall before the holiday. The market is in a wide - balance state with a tendency to accumulate inventory, and the weak situation is difficult to change after the holiday [19]. Agricultural Products Sector - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: US cotton prices fall during the holiday. Domestic cotton purchase is stable, but demand is weak. Cotton prices are expected to have limited downward space after the holiday [21][22]. - **Sugar**: US raw sugar oscillates during the holiday. Production in some regions may increase, and Zhengzhou sugar may rebound but is under pressure [23]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: US soybeans rebound during the holiday. Domestic supply is sufficient, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly [24]. - **Soybean Oil**: US soybean harvest begins. Domestic production and demand are both weak, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [25]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil may enter the production - reduction season early. Supply and demand are both affected, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. - **Rapeseed Products**: Canadian rapeseed imports decrease, and domestic rapeseed oil production increases with inventory reduction, expected to oscillate [26]. - **Corn and Starch**: US corn oscillates slightly. Domestic supply may be affected by weather, and demand is strong. Corn prices may first fall and then rise [27]. - **Hogs**: Pig prices are low, and the breeding loss expands. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [28]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are stable during the holiday. High存栏 may lead to price pressure after the holiday [28]. - **Logs**: Log prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to seasonal factors, but downstream demand is weak [29]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel mills' profitability decreases, but production and demand show different trends. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [31]. - **Iron Ore**: The market shows a small increase. Supply is stable, and demand has support, focusing on supply and demand changes [31]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply and demand change little, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is weak and stable during the holiday. Supply and demand are both stable, and the market is expected to oscillate after the holiday [31]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply exceeds expectations, demand may decrease, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [33]. - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are weak and stable. They are expected to oscillate within a range after the holiday [33].

Core Insights - The report highlights SK Group's commitment to social, environmental, and economic responsibilities in China, emphasizing its "happiness management" philosophy and strategic alignment with China's development [1][2]. Group Overview - SK Group has been operating in China since 1991, with 18 member companies and 57 legal entities, employing 25,000 people and investing a total of $54.4 billion [1]. - The company operates in various sectors, including semiconductors, new energy, energy chemicals, and biopharmaceuticals, with SK Hynix being the only foreign company covering the entire DRAM and NAND flash memory supply chain in China [1][2]. Social Value Creation - SK Group's "Double Bottom Line" (DBL) strategy resulted in a social value achievement of $1.89 billion at the group level and 20.4 million RMB in China, marking a 32% year-on-year increase [2][37]. - Initiatives include establishing a public welfare foundation, sponsoring academic forums, and projects like the "Green Great Wall" for desertification prevention, with the "Happiness Alliance" project covering 21 primary schools across 8 provinces [2][37]. Environmental Responsibility - SK has joined the RE100 initiative and announced a "Net Zero" declaration, setting a "2050-α" emissions reduction target [2][41]. - In 2024, SK's operations in China achieved significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions through technological upgrades, with SK Hynix's Wuxi entity achieving "zero waste to landfill" platinum certification for two consecutive years [2][41]. Governance and Collaboration - SK has established a governance system that exceeds international standards, enhancing board independence and professionalism, and conducting extensive training for suppliers on social responsibility [3]. - The company collaborates with various stakeholders, including government and educational institutions, to promote technology and standards exchange [3]. Future Focus - SK plans to continue focusing on technological innovation in semiconductors and new energy, deepening localization strategies, and building a comprehensive green practice system to support China's industrial upgrade and sustainable development [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures products of Baocheng Futures on October 9, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Power Coal - The report shows the basis and inter - period spreads of power coal from September 24 to September 30, 2025. The basis on September 30 was - 102.4 yuan/ton, and all inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) were 0.0 [1][2] Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - It provides the basis, price ratios, and other data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and other energy commodities from September 24 to September 30, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on September 30 was 13.33 yuan/ton [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of rubber on September 30 was - 730 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of rubber was - 15 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on September 30 was 2298 yuan/ton [11] Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of rebar was 54.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on September 30 was 3.95 [20] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of rebar on September 30 was 138.0 yuan/ton [21] Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of copper on September 30 was 80 yuan/ton [28] London Market - Data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (42.98) [33] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on September 30 was 33 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads of various agricultural products are provided, including soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 was 32 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on September 30 was 1.83 [38] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on September 30 was 22.69 [50] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 9.8 [50]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the previous continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. Sectors like energy storage, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the medium and long term, the main idea is to go long on dips [2][3]. - For the bond market in the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The market is in a situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, and is expected to maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. - For most non - ferrous metals, factors such as supply tightening, macro - policy easing, and relatively stable demand support price increases, but different metals have different specific driving factors and price trends [8][9][10][11]. - For black building materials, the current steel demand is weak, but with the macro - environment turning loose, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust downward if the downstream situation weakens. For other varieties in the black building materials sector, different trends and influencing factors exist [31][33]. - For energy chemicals, different varieties have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some varieties are expected to maintain a volatile trend, while others have opportunities for short - term long positions or risks of decline [50][52][54]. - For agricultural products, the supply - demand relationship of different varieties is unbalanced. Some are in a situation of oversupply and prices are under pressure, while others are expected to be strong due to factors such as policy support and supply - demand expectations [73][74][79][80]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year" capital market plan for listed companies and industry institutions. During the holiday, non - ferrous metal futures such as precious metals, copper, and aluminum closed higher. Global storage chip prices are rising, and the storage chip industry is expected to enter a "super cycle". China's nuclear fusion device BEST has made a key breakthrough [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous rise, high - level hot sectors have diverged, and the market volume has shrunk. Short - term index fluctuations have increased, but the medium - and long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On September 30, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. The cross - regional personnel flow during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays reached 2.36 billion person - times. The US September non - farm payrolls data was postponed due to the government "shutdown". The central bank conducted 2422 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 339 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In September, the manufacturing PMI showed a slight recovery but was still below the boom - bust line. The "anti - involution" policy led to a rise in the price level, but the subsequent social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and there are still expectations of monetary easing and the central bank restarting bond purchases. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the fourth quarter [5]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: COMEX gold and silver prices fell. During the National Day, overseas risk events impacted the US dollar credit, and gold prices rose. The Fed officials had differences in the follow - up interest rate path, and the market expected further interest rate cuts [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term long - position thinking for precious metals. There is a short - term risk of price correction, and price dips are good opportunities to enter long positions [6]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: During the National Day holiday, overseas non - ferrous metal prices were generally strong. LME copper prices rose, and overseas exchange copper inventories changed differently. Chile's August copper production decreased, and domestic September electrolytic copper production also decreased [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and macro - policy easing support copper prices, and demand is not significantly weak. Copper prices are expected to remain strong [9]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: During the National Day holiday, the aluminum price rose. LME aluminum inventories decreased, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum production and operating capacity were relatively stable, with the proportion of molten aluminum increasing [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Macro - sentiment supports the aluminum price. With the increase in the domestic molten aluminum proportion and the seasonal recovery of consumption, the aluminum price is expected to rise [11]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the Shanghai zinc index fell slightly. During the holiday, the LME zinc price rose, and the inventory decreased. The structural risk of LME zinc strengthened [12][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: During the holiday, domestic zinc smelting and downstream enterprises maintained normal production. The non - ferrous metal sector was strong, and the Shanghai zinc price is expected to be strong after the holiday [14]. Lead - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the Shanghai lead index rose slightly. During the holiday, the LME lead price rose slightly, and the inventory increased. The lead price structure was under pressure [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: During the holiday, domestic lead smelting enterprises maintained normal production, and downstream battery enterprises had a shorter holiday. The lead price is expected to be weak and volatile after the holiday [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: During the National Day, the nickel price fluctuated. The spot market had little trading activity during the holiday. Before the holiday, the nickel price fluctuated in a narrow range, and downstream enterprises had low enthusiasm for stocking [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The refined nickel inventory pressure is significant, which drags down the nickel price. In the medium - and long - term, factors such as US easing expectations and domestic anti - involution policies support the nickel price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider going long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: During the National Day, the LME tin price was strong. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand in the new energy and AI fields was good, but the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance fields were still weak [19][20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance. The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: On September 30, the carbonate lithium spot index and futures prices fell [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the double festivals, the strong demand in the lithium - battery downstream supports the price, while the supply replenishment expectation suppresses the upside space. Pay attention to the supply continuity of the resource end and the realization of strong demand expectations [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On September 30, the alumina index fell. The domestic spot price fell, and the overseas price was stable. The import window was opened [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the stainless steel futures price fell slightly. The spot price was stable, and the inventory increased [25][26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Before the holiday, the stainless steel market was in a tug - of - war between cost support and weak demand. If the supply pressure increases after the holiday, the price may continue to decline [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Before the National Day, the cast aluminum alloy futures price was weak. During the holiday, the cost of raw aluminum rose. The price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 contracts widened, and the inventory increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream peak season of cast aluminum alloy is not strong, the inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is under pressure. The support comes from the rise in the cost of raw materials [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell. The spot price also decreased, and the inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: During the National Day holiday, steel demand was weak, and inventory accumulated. Although the macro - environment is turning loose, the short - term weak reality is difficult to reverse. The steel price may decline, and attention should be paid to policy signals and the Fourth Plenary Session [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: On September 30, the iron ore futures price fell slightly. During the holiday, the TSI iron ore price rose. Two news events affected the Singapore iron ore market, but the price returned to stability [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: During the holiday, steel mills maintained production, and overseas ore shipments were stable. The short - term iron ore price may adjust downward if the downstream situation weakens. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the glass futures price fell, and the spot price in some regions rose. The inventory decreased. The soda ash futures price fell, and the spot price decreased. The inventory decreased [34][35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is in a wide - range volatile pattern, with weak terminal demand. It is recommended to be bullish in the short - term. The soda ash market is stable with narrow fluctuations, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [34][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On September 30, the manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices fell. The spot price also decreased. The prices of both are in the shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may experience a short - term downward correction, but in the long - term, it may have the value of long - position allocation. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the trend of the black sector [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: On September 30, the industrial silicon futures price rose slightly, and the spot price was stable. The polysilicon futures price rose slightly, and the spot price was stable [41][43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon supply - demand is stable in the short - term, and it is expected to be volatile. The polysilicon price may have a short - term decline risk, and attention should be paid to policy changes [42][44]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: During the holiday, the prices of Japanese rubber and Singapore rubber rose slightly. The Thai spot prices were mixed. The开工 rate of domestic tire enterprises was different, and the inventory decreased [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a medium - term long - position thinking. In the short - term, it is recommended to set a stop - loss, enter short - term long positions quickly, and consider partial hedging operations [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: During the National Day, the international crude oil market fluctuated. The WTI and Brent crude oil prices were at a certain level. The US API data showed that the Cushing inventory decreased. The OPEC meeting decided on a "principle - based low - speed production increase" [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC's production increase plan will suppress the upside space of oil prices. Crude oil is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: During the holiday, overseas crude oil prices fluctuated. Before the holiday, the methanol spot and futures prices changed. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory decreased [53][54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol supply - demand situation has improved, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - term long - position opportunities on dips [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: During the holiday, the urea spot price in some regions decreased. Before the holiday, the futures price rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [55][56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea price is at a low level. It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene spot and futures prices fell. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the approaching seasonal peak season. The BZN spread has room for upward repair [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price fell. The spot price decreased, and the cost was stable. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [59][60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC supply - demand situation is poor. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol futures price fell. The spot price decreased. The supply increased, and the demand increased. The inventory decreased [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol supply is high. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price fell. The spot price decreased. The supply and demand both increased, and the inventory increased [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA supply - demand situation is complex. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [65]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene futures price fell. The CFR price rose. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene is expected to accumulate inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE futures price rose. The spot price was stable. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory decreased [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may fluctuate upward. The cost has support, and the demand is expected to increase [69]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP futures price rose. The spot price was stable. The supply was under pressure, and the demand increased. The inventory was under pressure [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is under pressure [71]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: During the holiday, the domestic pig price fell, the supply increased, and the demand was weak [73]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The pig price is expected to be weak in the short - term. It is recommended to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse hedging. Attention should be paid to post - holiday fluctuations [74]. Eggs - **Market Information**: During the holiday, the domestic egg price fell, the supply was large, and the demand was weak [75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The price may be weak after the holiday, but there may be support from potential inventory transfer. It is recommended to wait and see [76]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: During the National Day holiday, the CBOT soybean price rose. The domestic soybean meal spot price changed slightly. The Brazilian soybean sowing progress was faster than before [77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. The price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term [78]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel policy. The Malaysian palm oil inventory may decrease. The Malaysian palm oil price rose during the holiday [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil and fat prices are expected to be strong in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes [80]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. During the holiday, the raw sugar price changed little. The Brazilian sugar production data was released [81][82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to decline in the large - scale. It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [83]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell. During the holiday, the US cotton price fell. The domestic cotton purchase price was lower than last year, and the demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" was weak [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Zhengzhou cotton price is likely to be weak after the National Day. The cost support is around 12860 - 13130 yuan/ton [85].

Group 1 - The international commodity market showed strong performance during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, with precious metals being the most notable, as COMEX gold prices reached $4000 per ounce and COMEX silver approached $49 per ounce, while spot gold hit a historical high [1] - Analysts predict a structural differentiation in the domestic commodity market post-holiday due to multiple variables, including political turmoil in some foreign economies and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has created a "data vacuum" affecting market sentiment [2][3] - The strong performance of precious metals is driven by heightened expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and increased safe-haven demand due to concerns over U.S. fiscal policy sustainability amid the government shutdown [3] Group 2 - The copper market also showed strength, with LME copper prices surpassing $10,000 per ton, driven by expectations of looser macro liquidity, ongoing supply disruptions, and structural demand from the renewable energy sector [3] - In contrast, the energy and chemical sectors experienced weakness due to significant declines in international oil prices, which reduced cost support for domestic energy and chemical markets [3] - Analysts suggest that the strong performance of certain commodities (like precious and non-ferrous metals) may positively influence related domestic products, while those with weaker fundamentals may continue to adjust, leading to a "stronger strong, weaker weak" market characteristic [4]