中游：1）化工：PTA开工率回升；PX开工率近期回落；聚酯、尿素开工率处今年高位。2）基建：沥青开工率来 到近三年低位。 关注5月关税战对上游原材料的影响 中观事件总览 生产行业：4月制造业PMI回落。 1）4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点，制 造业景气水平有所回落。从企业规模看，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为49.2%、48.8%和48.7%，比上月下降2.0、1.1 和0.9个百分点，均低于临界点。 服务行业：五一假期旅游消费增长较多。 1）据工信部，一季度，我国规模以上互联网和相关服务企业完成互联 网业务收入4118亿元，同比增长1.4%；规模以上互联网企业研发经费增速加快，共投入研发经费204.5亿元，同比 增长4.6%。2）据文化和旅游部数据中心测算，假期5天全国国内出游3.14亿人次，同比增长6.4%；国内游客出游 总花费1802.69亿元，同比增长8.0%。 数据来源：央视新闻，iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 宏观日报 | 2025-05-07 上游：1）能源：国际油价假期受关税影响回落较多。2）有色：铜、锌、镍受关税影响价格震荡。3）建材：水泥、 ...

Group 1: Travel and Tourism - The average daily passenger volume during the first three days of the May Day holiday in 2025 reached 305 million, a 5.4% increase from 2024's 289 million[6] - Excluding private car usage, the average daily passenger volume was 60.39 million, up 7.6% from 2024[6] - International flight numbers increased by 19.6% year-on-year, significantly outpacing domestic flight growth of 5.4%[6] Group 2: Consumer Spending - The average daily box office revenue during the May Day holiday was 170 million yuan, down from 350 million yuan in 2024, representing 39% of the 2019 level[14] - The average number of moviegoers was 4.35 million, compared to 8.78 million in 2024, which is 43% of the 2019 level[14] - Despite a decline in box office revenue, the drop in attendance was greater than the drop in total revenue, indicating some price recovery[14] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The April production synchronization index (HTPI) was 4.34%, down from 4.91% in March[20] - The April consumption synchronization index (HTCI) was 3.81%, slightly down from 3.85% in March[20] - Infrastructure investment showed signs of recovery, with cumulative issuance of special bonds reaching 1.2721 trillion yuan as of May 4[32]

Global Economic Overview - The global economic landscape is characterized by divergence, with the US showing moderate growth supported by consumer spending, while investment lags behind [1] - Japan's economy is experiencing mild growth with balanced contributions across sectors [1] - Emerging markets like China are growing at their own pace, with consumption, investment, and net exports contributing positively, although the real estate sector is facing adjustments [1] - India is showing strong economic growth momentum [1] - Global inflation levels vary, with some countries facing significant inflationary pressures, while China is experiencing deflationary signs [1] - Supply chain pressures have eased globally, leading to a decrease in freight costs [1] Stock Market Performance - Global stock market returns vary significantly by region, with some Asian markets like Taiwan and China performing exceptionally well over the past decade [2] - Different markets exhibit unique characteristics in terms of earnings expectations, valuations, and dividend performance [2] - The technology sector is gaining attention, particularly with high earnings growth expectations for Chinese tech companies and significant growth in India's telecommunications services sector [2] - The US stock market is noted for its high concentration, with the top ten companies having a substantial impact on the index [2] Fixed Income Market Dynamics - The global fixed income market shows complex dynamics, with varying returns across different bond categories [3] - Emerging market local currency bonds and Asian high-yield bonds have performed well during certain periods [3] - The yield, duration, and interest rate sensitivity of bonds differ, affecting market returns [3] - The spread changes between investment-grade and high-yield bonds influence market performance [3] - Emerging market bonds exhibit volatility in spreads and returns compared to US Treasuries, while the Asian fixed income market has its own trends [3] Other Asset Classes - The US dollar's exchange rate is related to interest rate differentials, and commodity prices are subject to fluctuations [4] - Gold prices are influenced by real interest rates, while oil prices are affected by supply and demand dynamics [4] - Alternative asset classes show varying returns and volatility, with different correlations to traditional assets, which can help in risk diversification within investment portfolios [4]

Core Viewpoint - China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC) reported a decline in Q1 2025 earnings, with total revenue of 256.76 billion yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.15 billion yuan, down 14.5% year-on-year, while maintaining a "buy" rating from Dongwu Securities [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - Q1 2025 revenue decreased by 6.6%, consistent with the decline in Q4 2024, with a gross margin of 7.5%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company effectively controlled expenses, with slight reductions in the expense ratios despite declining revenue, including sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios of 0.50%, 1.98%, 1.15%, and 0.53%, respectively [2]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 2.01%, down 0.19 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by asset impairment losses and investment income [2]. Cash Flow and Debt - Operating cash flow improved, with a net cash outflow of 38.95 billion yuan, a reduction of 7.65 billion yuan year-on-year, and cash collection and payment ratios of 107.3% and 119.1%, respectively [3]. - As of the end of Q1, the company had interest-bearing debt of 541.1 billion yuan, an increase of 141.6 billion yuan year-on-year, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 77.6%, up 2.0 percentage points [3]. New Contracts and Orders - New contracts signed in Q1 2025 totaled 492.8 billion yuan, down 10.5% year-on-year, with engineering contracts down 18.7% to 371 billion yuan, while green environmental contracts increased by 77.1% to 49 billion yuan [4]. - Significant growth was observed in infrastructure sectors, with new contracts in railways, mining, and electricity increasing by 66.3%, 139.3%, and 29.2%, respectively [4]. - The company’s backlog of contracts reached 7.8613 trillion yuan, up 12.5% year-on-year, indicating strong order visibility [4]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - Despite external economic pressures, the company is expected to benefit from increased fiscal policies and infrastructure investments, with projected net profits of 21.9 billion yuan, 22.4 billion yuan, and 22.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [5]. - The company remains undervalued as a leading state-owned enterprise in infrastructure, with a maintained "buy" rating [5].

报 告 正 文 预计4月工业增加值同比增长5.8% 。4月全国制造业PMI回落至49%，再度降至线下。主要分项指标中，产 需双双回落，原材料和出厂价格均有下行，原材料和产成品库存同步下降。从4月以来的中观高频数据来 看，汽车半钢胎和全钢胎开工率同比继续下降，化工行业开工率同比降幅均有走扩。六大发电集团耗煤同 比增速因去年同期基数走低而有所上升。整体来看，工业生产景气度保持平稳。我们预计，4月工业增加 值同比增速降至5.8%。 预计4月固定资产投资累计同比增长4.2%。 具体来看三大类投资，基建投资累计同比增速有所上升，制造 业投资累计同比增速有所下降，房地产投资累计同比增速略微下降。我们预计，4月投资累计增速或保持 稳定。 首先， 从基建相关的高频数据来看，水泥价格同比略有上升，螺纹钢累计产量同比降幅收窄，预 计基建投资累计增速有所上升； 其次， 42城地产销量累计同比降幅持续走扩，预计房地产投资额累计降 幅略微下降； 最后 ，乘联会乘用车批发和零售销量累计同比由升转降，预测制造业投资累计增速将有所 下降。我们预计，4月固定资产投资累计同比增速或保持稳定至4.2%。 预计4月社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4% ...

Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as a key theme in the current economic landscape [1] Research Insights Machinery Equipment - XCMG Machinery (000425.SZ) reported a total revenue of CNY 91.66 billion in 2024, a decrease of 1.28% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 12.2% to CNY 5.976 billion. In Q1 2025, revenue grew by 10.92% to CNY 26.815 billion, and net profit rose by 26.37% to CNY 2.022 billion, with a net profit margin of 7.6% [6] Construction Decoration - China Railway (601390.SH) faced a 19% decline in net profit in Q1 2025, attributed to pressure in traditional infrastructure sectors, although overseas orders showed strong growth. The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is CNY 28.1 billion, CNY 28.3 billion, and CNY 28.9 billion, respectively [7] Steel - Hunan Steel (000932.SZ) saw a significant improvement in Q1 2025, with net profit increasing by 43.55% to CNY 562 million. The overall profitability of the steel industry is recovering, with a gross profit margin expected to improve [8] Automotive - Silver Wheel Co., Ltd. (002126.SZ) reported a revenue of CNY 3.4 billion in Q1 2025, a 15% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising by 11% to CNY 210 million. The company is well-positioned for growth in the automotive sector [11] Home Appliances - Haier Smart Home (600690.SH) achieved a revenue of CNY 79.118 billion in Q1 2025, a 10.06% increase, with net profit rising by 15.09% to CNY 5.487 billion. The company is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory [14] Food and Beverage - Hengshun Vinegar (600305.SH) reported a revenue of CNY 626 million in Q1 2025, a 35.97% increase, with net profit rising by 2.36% to CNY 57 million. The company is focused on strengthening its core business and expanding into new markets [15] Construction Materials - Oriental Yuhong (002271.SZ) faced challenges in Q1 2025, with a decline in performance due to reduced demand in new construction areas. The company is optimizing its distribution channels [22] Power - Zhejiang Energy Power (600023.SH) reported stable performance in Q1 2025, with revenue projected to be CNY 87.698 billion in 2025, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year. Net profit is expected to be CNY 6.25 billion [20] Textile and Apparel - Jian Sheng Group (603558.SH) reported a 2% increase in revenue in Q1 2025, but net profit decreased by 27%. The company is adjusting its production capacity to match orders [29] Coal - Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) reported a revenue of CNY 90.26 billion in Q1 2025, a decrease of 14.46%, with net profit down by 28.33% to CNY 6.81 billion. The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [43]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report focuses on the impact of trade - war uncertainties on upstream prices and provides an overview of the mid - view events and the industry situation. It also mentions that the credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Mid - view Events Overview - **Production Industry**: The National Energy Administration issued a notice to promote the development of private economy in the energy field, supporting private enterprises to invest in energy infrastructure projects such as nuclear power, hydropower, oil and gas storage facilities, and LNG receiving stations [1]. - **Service Industry**: As of April 27, the average pre - sale price of domestic civil aviation tickets for the "May Day" holiday dropped slightly to about 864 yuan, up 9.75% compared to 2019 and down 7.09% compared to 2024, showing a stable trend [1]. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: International oil prices are continuously fluctuating due to tariffs; prices of copper, zinc, and nickel are oscillating; cement and building material prices are continuously falling; egg prices are rising [2]. - **Midstream**: The PTA operating rate has rebounded, the PX operating rate has recently declined, and the operating rates of polyester and urea are at this year's high. The asphalt operating rate has reached a three - year low [2]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are the same as last year and at a three - year low. The number of international flights has increased, while the number of domestic flights has decreased compared to the same period [2]. Market Pricing The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [3]. Data Charts The report includes various data charts on coal consumption, inventory, operating rates of different industries, traffic congestion indexes, movie box office, flight execution, and real - estate transaction data [4]. Industry Credit Spread Tracking It provides the credit spread data of multiple industries, including past data from last year, a quarter ago, a month ago, last week, and this week, as well as the quantile data [44]. Key Industry Price Index Tracking It shows the price indexes of multiple industries, including the frequency, unit, update time, current value, year - on - year change, and the trend in the past 5 days [45].

证券代码：600606 股票简称：绿地控股 编号：临 2025-010 绿地控股集团股份有限公司 特此公告。 绿地控股集团股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 4 月 29 日 2025 年第一季度基建业务经营情况简报 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 2025 年 1-3 月，公司基建业务新增项目情况如下: （一）业务分部 | 细分行业 | 房屋建设 | 基建工程 | 其他 | 总计 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目数（个） | 291 | 117 | 134 | 542 | | 总金额（万元） | 2,401,314 | 1,257,012 | 536,399 | 4,194,724 | | 总金额同比增减（%） | -4.01 | -15.76 | 76.70 | -2.38 | （二）地区分部 | 项目地区 | 境内 | 境外 | 总计 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目数（个） | 533 | 9 | 542 | | 总金额（万元） ...

文 ｜ 明明 彭阳 章立聪 周成华 我们基于4月以来的高频数据，分析了美国"对等关税"政策以来我国出口以及经济运行的情况。数据显示，美国加征关税及取消 小额包裹免税政策对出口链条形成显著冲击，义乌小商品出口价格指数与总价格指数出现分化，反映出出口与内销市场结构的 调整；集装箱运价分化则揭示出制造业对外需变化的高度敏感性。同时，原油及化工品期货价格走弱，表明中游产业链承受下 行压力，PPI面临回落的风险。尽管如此，沥青装置开工率等数据回升，表明基建投资需求有所支撑。4月新兴产业EPMI大幅回 落至4 9 . 4%，进一步印证外部冲击对新兴制造业景气度的压制。本轮外部冲击主要通过需求端传导，企业应对策略呈现分化，未 来出口修复的关键在于市场多元化和全球贸易的改善。 4月新兴产业EPMI指数大幅回落至4 9 . 4%，环比下降1 0 . 2个百分点，远超正常季节性波动水平。这一变化主要由外需冲击主 导，关税加征直接压制了出口订单，企业生产同步收缩。不同于疫情时期以供给收缩为特征，本轮冲击是需求侧主导。面对突 发性外部冲击，不同企业展现出差异化应对策略：一部分企业暂停扩张、转向新兴市场、或局部产能外迁以规避关税风险； ...

Economic Performance - In the first quarter, GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year and 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a strong economic performance driven by consumption and export activities [1] - The contribution rates to economic growth from consumption, investment, and net exports were 51.7%, 8.7%, and 39.5% respectively, with consumption and net exports accounting for over 90% combined, significantly higher than last year's figures [1] Investment Trends - Infrastructure and manufacturing investments maintained a high growth rate of around 10% year-on-year, supported by fiscal policies and increased special bonds [2] - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, indicating expansion in production and new orders, which suggests a positive cycle of demand improvement leading to increased production [2] - Government consumption subsidies are set at 300 billion yuan, an increase of 150 billion yuan from last year, aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing consumer confidence [2] Export Dynamics - The export sector is significantly influenced by U.S. tariff policies, with recent indications of potential easing in trade tensions, which could positively impact Chinese exporters [3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary suggested that the current tariff situation is unsustainable, hinting at possible future negotiations that may alleviate pressure on exports [3] A-Share Market Outlook - A-share companies have shown positive earnings growth, with major indices like CSI 300 and SSE 50 reporting positive revenue and net profit growth [4] - The recovery in consumption and strong performance in the capital market are expected to support the rebound of blue-chip indices, which will gradually benefit smaller-cap indices as well [4]