黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报 | | 仍相对有限，一定程度上会拖累锰硅价格。成本端，港口锰矿价格仍在持续回升，钢联数据显示截止 5 月 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 15 日，澳矿价格环比上调 1 元/吨度至 41.5 元/吨度，加蓬矿价格环比上调 0.2 元/吨度至 37.5 元/吨度， | | | | 南非半碳酸价格环比上调 0.3 元/吨度至 34 元/吨度，成本端有一定支撑。综合来看，近期在宏观情绪带 | | | | 动叠加市场消息刺激下锰硅期价重心有一定抬升，但能否持续还是要关注终端需求表现，短期关注主流钢 | | | | 招定价情况，预计短期区间震荡运行为主。 | | | | 硅铁：周四，硅铁期价窄幅震荡，主力合约报收 5660 元/吨，环比下跌 0.14%，主力合约持仓环比下降 5280 | | | | 手。72 号硅铁汇总价格约 5350-5500 元/吨， 内蒙古、宁夏地区较前一日持平，甘肃、青海地区较前一日 | | | | 下调 50 元/吨。昨日黑色板块整体走势稍有分化，硅铁期价重心小幅下移。主流钢招最终定价仍未公布， | | | | 河北某大型钢厂 5 月硅铁招 ...

国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025年05月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：主产区减产集中，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：原料价格继续探涨，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：铁水下行，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：铁水下行，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 10 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 16 日 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 736. 5 | -0.5 | -0. 07% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(于) | 持仓变动(手) | | ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 5 月 16 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/05/15 | -187.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/14 | -184.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/13 | -182.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/12 | -171.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/09 | -171.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【20 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - For the steel market, risk preference has generally strengthened. On Wednesday, futures prices opened low and closed high, with some under - performing furnace material varieties making up for losses. Spot trading volume increased compared to Tuesday, and steel inventory and apparent demand data improved but did not return to pre - May Day levels. After the long - holiday impact, steel union's apparent demand data may rise this week, but inventory changes are more important. The medium - term cost loosening and supply - demand relaxation in the industry remain unchanged. Tariff war easing may boost market sentiment, but the supply - demand structure in May may be weaker than in April, and there is a risk of price decline after the market sentiment fades [6]. - In the coking coal and coke market, there is an expectation of "grabbing exports" during the tariff suspension period, causing commodities to strengthen. However, the first round of coke price cuts is expected to be implemented soon, coal mines are accumulating inventory, and coking coal prices are falling. Although the futures market rebounded on Wednesday, the spot market is still weak. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on single - side trading and consider JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [6]. - Regarding ferroalloys, in the silicon - iron market, some manufacturers in Ningxia have stopped production, which may lead to a tight supply - demand situation. In the manganese - silicon market, the area of production cuts has expanded, and the cost has a certain loosening expectation. The rebound of silicon - iron may continue strongly, while the rebound of manganese - silicon may slow down in the short term [6]. - For iron ore, the rebound driven by improved macro - sentiment provides a good cost basis. Considering the high comprehensive tariff and the end of the peak season, the market needs to consider the situation of steel apparent demand peaking and inventory under high hot - metal production. Without considering production restrictions, iron ore will remain in a volatile state in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, it is more likely that steel products will be weaker than iron ore [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 14, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3155 yuan/ton with a 48 - yuan increase (1.54% increase), HC2601 at 3283 yuan/ton with a 46 - yuan increase (1.42% increase), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3127 yuan/ton with a 38 - yuan increase (1.23% increase), HC2510 at 3267 yuan/ton with a 41 - yuan increase (1.27% increase), etc. [2] - **Spreads**: The cross - month spreads such as RB2510 - 2601 was - 28 yuan/ton on May 14 with a 5 - yuan decrease. The spreads/price ratios/profits like the coil - to - rebar spread was 140 yuan/ton on May 14 with a 4 - yuan increase [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 14, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3270 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase, Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3340 yuan/ton with a 90 - yuan increase, etc. [2] - **Basis**: On May 14, the basis of HC (hot - rolled coil) was 73 yuan/ton with a 38 - yuan increase, the basis of RB (rebar) was 143 yuan/ton with an 18 - yuan decrease, etc. [2]

日度报告——综合晨报 中国 4 月金融数据多数不及预期 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-15 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储副主席：预计经济增长将放缓，通胀或反弹但待观察 美联储官员表态经济稳健，因此不急于降息，美联储官员对于 经济短期看法明显乐观，美元维持震荡。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 韩国与美国就外汇政策展开对话 美国与中东国家的协议继续支撑科技板块上涨，股指表现分化， 纳指明显强于标普 500 和道琼斯指数。 综 宏观策略（国债期货） 合 4 月金融数据多数不及预期 晨 报 虽然财政正在积极发力，但私人部门仍然缺乏主动投融资意愿。 基本面对债市的影响依然是偏多的。 黑色金属（动力煤） 5 月 14 日北港市场动力煤价格弱势运行 伴随港口集中疏港，煤价下行压力一次性释放。后期来看，根 据天气预估，此轮夏季或再次呈现高温，火电增速有望在夏季 转至同比正增长。需求季节性回转将接替港口降库完成，煤 农产品（豆粕） 美国建议延长生物燃料税收抵免 美国众议院提议延长生物燃料税收抵免至 2031 年底，ANEC 将 巴西 5 月出口预估上调至 1426 万吨。昨日国内豆粕现货稳中有 跌 ...

Group 1: Economic Performance - In April, the sales revenue of enterprises in China increased by 4.3% year-on-year, continuing the steady growth trend since the fourth quarter of last year, driven by a series of existing and incremental policies [1] - The eastern region, particularly economic powerhouses like Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Beijing, saw sales revenue growth of 4.8%, with Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Beijing growing by 7.3%, 6.6%, and 5.4% respectively, significantly above the national average [1] Group 2: Industry Growth - In April, industrial enterprises' sales revenue grew by 3.7% year-on-year, with manufacturing sales revenue increasing by 4.4%, primarily driven by the "two new" policies [2] - Specific sectors such as electrical machinery, computer manufacturing, and instrumentation saw sales revenue growth of 12.8%, 15.7%, and 15.9% respectively [2] - High-tech industries and core digital economy sectors reported sales revenue growth of 15.3% and 13.4% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Consumer Policies and Trends - The "old-for-new" consumption promotion policies have positively impacted consumer demand and released residents' consumption potential, with a focus on boosting consumer confidence [3] - As of April 27, the "old-for-new" program led to significant sales, including 281.4 million vehicles and 49.416 million home appliances, contributing over 720 billion yuan to sales [2] Group 4: Foreign Trade and Domestic Sales - In response to uncertainties in international trade, the government has implemented policies to help foreign trade enterprises expand into domestic sales, with domestic sales for companies engaged in exports to the U.S. increasing by 4.7% year-on-year [4] - Among 31 manufacturing categories, 21 saw an increase in the proportion of domestic sales compared to the previous year, with notable increases in sectors like leather products and footwear [4] Group 5: Trade Statistics - In the first four months of the year, China's total goods trade value reached 14.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with exports growing by 7.5% and imports declining by 4.2% [5] - In April, the total goods trade value was 3.84 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6%, with exports increasing by 9.3% and imports by 0.8% [5]

【5 月 14 日国内期市黑色金属板块全线飘红】截止目前，铁矿石主力上涨 1.88%，报 733.00 元/吨。螺 纹钢主力上涨 0.84%，报 3115.00 元/吨。热卷主力上涨 0.84%，报 3253.00 元/吨。不锈钢主力上涨 1.16%，报 13080.00 元/吨。5 月 13 日黑色金属仓单数据显示，螺纹钢仓库期货仓单 148997 吨，环比上 个减少 19706 吨。铁矿石期货仓单 3200 手，环比上个持平。不锈钢仓库期货仓单 159232 吨，环比上个 减少 1012 吨。热轧卷板期货仓单 281489 吨，环比上个减少 9957 吨。锰硅期货仓单 121174 张，环比上 个减少 136 张。硅铁期货仓单 19249 张，环比上个减少 28 张。截止 5 月 13 日，据商品期货基差数据显 示，螺纹钢、热卷、不锈钢品种合约出现"期现倒挂"现象。螺纹钢现货价格 3164.78 元，期货价格 3089 元，基差 75 元，基差率 2.37%。线材现货价格 3370 元，期货价格 3433 元，基差-63 元，基差 率-1.87%。热轧卷板现货价格 3296.67 元，期货价格 3226 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面窄幅震荡，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3079 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 3 元/吨，跌幅为 0.1%，持仓减少 2.93 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价 | | | 钢材 | 格下跌 20 元/吨至 2950 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3160 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.78 万吨。中 | 低位整理 | | | 美经贸谈判达成重要共识，对市场情绪形成一定提振。不过目前螺纹现货需求逐步有弱，钢厂出口接单难 | | | | 度也加大，市场供需基本面有所承压。预计短期螺纹盘面仍将低位整理运行。 | | | | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格有所下跌，收于 714.5 元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价下跌 4 元/吨，跌幅为 0.56%，成交 43 万手，增仓 1 万手。 港口现货价格有所下跌，日照港 PB 粉 765 元/吨下 | | | 铁矿石 | 跌 4 元/吨，卡 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are subject to wide - range fluctuations due to macro - sentiment disturbances [2][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations affected by macro - sentiment [2][11]. - Coke is facing a first - round price cut and will fluctuate widely, while coking coal will fluctuate widely [2][14]. - Steam coal will show a weakening trend with increased coal mine inventory [2][18]. - Logs will fluctuate repeatedly with the boost of macro - expectations [2][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the futures contract 12509 was 714.5 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (- 0.56%); the position increased by 9,557 to 714,025 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices remained unchanged. The basis for 12505 against Super Special decreased by 17 yuan/ton, and the 12509 - 12601 spread decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The China - US Geneva economic and trade talks joint statement indicates that both sides will take measures to modify and cancel tariffs and suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,079 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (0.88%), with a trading volume of 1,930,069 hands and a position decrease of 29,285 hands. For HC2510, the closing price was 3,215 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.78%), with a trading volume of 660,865 hands and a position decrease of 29,461 hands. Spot prices in different regions showed various changes. The basis for RB2510 increased by 3 yuan/ton, and for HC2510 decreased by 15 yuan/ton [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On May 8, steel production data showed a decrease in rebar production by 9.85 tons and an increase in hot - rolled coil production by 1.08 tons. Total inventory increased for both, and apparent demand decreased. The US promised to cancel 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and modify 34% of them, with China taking corresponding measures [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon decreased. Spot prices of silicon - iron remained unchanged, while silicon - manganese increased by 50 yuan/ton, and manganese ore increased by 0.5 yuan/ton - degree. The basis and spreads showed different changes [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. Some silicon - manganese enterprises in Chongqing, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia carried out production cuts or maintenance. Some steel mills finalized procurement prices and quantities [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coking coal (JM2509) and coke (J2509) decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different changes, and some basis and spreads also changed [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for coking coal in northern ports and CCI metallurgical coal index data. On May 13, for the coking coal JM2509 contract, long - positions increased by 13,695 hands and short - positions increased by 18,191 hands; for the coke J2509 contract, long - positions increased by 74 hands and short - positions increased by 619 hands [14][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [17]. Steam Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The previous trading day's data of steam coal ZC2506 showed an opening price of 931.6 yuan/ton, a high of 931.6 yuan/ton, a low of 840 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 840 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 18 hands and a position of 0 hands [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for southern port's foreign - trade steam coal and domestic production areas. On May 13, both long - and short - positions of the ZC2506 contract decreased by 0 hands [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [20]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: For different contracts of logs, there were changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions showed different trends, and basis and spreads also changed [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The China - US Geneva economic and trade talks joint statement indicates that both sides will take measures to modify and cancel tariffs and suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [24].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on May 14, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to help investors understand the market situation through the analysis of basis, inter - period spread, and inter - variety spread. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis**: On May 13, 2025, the basis was - 182.4 yuan/ton, showing a continuous negative value trend in recent days [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities** - **Basis**: The basis data of INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt are presented, with the basis of INE crude oil and fuel oil fluctuating in recent days [6]. - **Chemical Commodities** - **Basis**: The basis data of natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PP, etc. are provided, with significant fluctuations in the basis of natural rubber in recent days [7]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. are given, such as the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber being - 1045 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. are presented, with the LLDPE - PVC spread being 2309 yuan/ton on May 13, 2025 [7]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided, with the basis of rebar showing an upward trend in recent days [12]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given, such as the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar being - 69.0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc. are presented, with the rebar/iron ore ratio being 4.31 on May 13, 2025 [12]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market** - **Basis**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided, with significant fluctuations in the basis of copper in recent days [20]. - **Import and Export Data**: The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss of various non - ferrous metals are presented, with all non - ferrous metals showing import losses except lead [26]. - **London Market**: The LME basis, Shanghai - London ratio, and import profit and loss data of non - ferrous metals are presented [26]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. are provided, with the basis of soybeans showing a negative value in recent days [36]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. are given, such as the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans being 48 yuan/ton [36]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of soybean/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. are presented, with the soybean/corn ratio being 1.77 on May 13, 2025 [34]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided, with the basis of all indices showing positive values on May 13, 2025 [44]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given, such as the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 being - 40.8 [44].