Global Macro Assets - Major overseas stock indices showed mixed performance during the New Year holiday, with the US indices declining: Nasdaq down 1.6%, Dow Jones down 1.4%, and S&P 500 down 1.1% [2][7] - Long-term bond yields in major developed countries mostly rebounded, with the 10Y US Treasury yield rising by 5.0 basis points to 4.19% [9][12] - Oil prices continued to weaken, with WTI and Brent crude down 1.8% and 2.4% respectively, while gold prices quickly retreated by 3.7% after reaching a historical high [12][13] Overseas Fundamentals & Data - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed a division of opinions among officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with some supporting a pause [15] - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 27 were 199,000, lower than the expected 218,000 [17] - The US military conducted airstrikes in Venezuela, escalating geopolitical tensions, with President Trump claiming the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro [20] - Trump announced a delay in tariff increases on furniture and kitchen cabinets from January 1, 2026, to January 1, 2027 [25] Domestic Events & Data - During the New Year holiday, domestic travel intensity increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.3% in cross-regional passenger flow [30][37] - Domestic tourism, particularly "ice and snow tourism" and "winter escape tourism," saw a notable rise, while cross-border travel experienced a decline [43] - The average ticket price for economy class flights during the New Year holiday was 597 yuan, showing a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [50] - The film market showed steady recovery, with daily box office revenue increasing by 42.5% compared to the same period in 2025 [53]

Group 1 - The article outlines measures to ensure a strong economic start in the first quarter of 2026, emphasizing the importance of consumer spending and investment [2][24] - Key initiatives include promoting the replacement of old consumer goods, enhancing retail and wholesale support, and accelerating the development of the accommodation and catering industries [3][8][10][12] Group 2 - The plan includes expanding effective investment through optimized project mechanisms and accelerating project initiation, particularly in infrastructure and key industries [24][30] - Specific projects highlighted for development include the integration of coal and phosphate chemical industries, highway construction, and large reservoir projects [30][32] Group 3 - The article stresses the importance of supporting key enterprises and industries to stabilize production and expand capacity, with a focus on reducing operational costs and enhancing service quality [40][43] - Measures to support the digital economy and new energy sectors are also emphasized, including the promotion of data centers and electric vehicle production [51][53] Group 4 - The article addresses agricultural production, emphasizing the need for effective spring sowing and ensuring the supply of agricultural products [57][61] - It also highlights the importance of maintaining employment stability and ensuring the supply of essential goods and energy during the winter [65][67] Group 5 - Safety production measures are outlined, focusing on risk prevention in key sectors and ensuring public safety during the winter season [70]

Group 1: Military Developments - The air combat victory in May 2025 significantly boosted Pakistan's military confidence, showcasing its capability to respond to modern warfare and defend territorial sovereignty [2] - Following the conflict, public support for the military and government surged, with 92% of citizens expressing improved views of the military [2] - Pakistan's military industry has gained international attention, securing a $4 billion arms deal with Libya, marking the largest military export order in its history [2] Group 2: International Relations - Pakistan's international reputation improved significantly post-air combat, becoming a sought-after partner for military cooperation among various countries [3] - Strategic defense agreements were signed with Saudi Arabia, and support from Turkey and Azerbaijan strengthened Pakistan's military diplomacy [3] - Relations with the United States improved, with renewed cooperation in energy, minerals, finance, and security following the air combat [4] Group 3: Economic Recovery - Pakistan's economy showed signs of stabilization in 2025, with inflation rates dropping from a peak of 38% to 4.5%, and foreign exchange reserves increasing to $14.5 billion from under $3 billion in 2023 [6] - The country achieved rare surpluses in both current and fiscal accounts, supported by loans from the IMF and World Bank [6] - The World Bank projected a GDP growth of 3% for the fiscal year 2026, potentially rising to 3.7% in 2027 [6] Group 4: Domestic Stability - Political unity increased in Pakistan, with various political factions reaching consensus on national interests and development, leading to successful reforms [5] - The government effectively curtailed violent political movements, enhancing governance and stability [5] - Security operations against terrorist organizations yielded significant successes, reducing the frequency and intensity of attacks [6] Group 5: Ongoing Challenges - Military pressure from India remains a primary threat to Pakistan's national security, with ongoing tensions and potential for renewed conflict [7] - Economic dependency on foreign aid persists, necessitating reforms to stimulate domestic economic growth [7] - Despite setbacks against terrorism, the underlying organizational structures of extremist groups remain, requiring vigilance from the government and military [7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend in December 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.17%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.93%. Analysts are looking for investment opportunities in January 2026 as multiple brokerages have released their monthly investment portfolios across various sectors [2][10]. Brokerage Recommendations - Donghai Securities recommends stocks including Aikedi, Hengli Petrochemical, Hengxuan Technology, and others [3][11]. - Everbright Securities suggests Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Haier Smart Home, and others [3][11]. - Guotai Junan recommends stocks like Guotai Haitong, Hengli Hydraulic, and others [3][11]. - Guolian Zhansheng includes stocks such as Industrial Fulian, Guangwei Composite, and others [3][11]. - The most frequently recommended stock is Zhongji Xuchuang, receiving endorsements from five brokerages, while China Zhongmian and Zijin Mining received four recommendations each [6][12]. Stock Performance - Zijin Mining had the highest increase in December 2025, with a rise of over 20%, closing at 34.47 yuan [5][13]. - Zhongji Xuchuang closed at 610.00 yuan with a market cap of 67.78 billion yuan, showing an 18.56% increase [6][14]. - China Zhongmian closed at 94.56 yuan with a market cap of 192.91 billion yuan, increasing by 20.03% [6][14]. - China Taibao closed at 41.91 yuan with a market cap of 37.51 billion yuan, rising by 20.60% [6][14]. Preferred Sectors - Brokerages suggest that the A-share market may continue its "spring excitement" trend, with a likely upward movement. Key sectors to focus on include commercial aerospace, non-ferrous metals, and semiconductors [7][15]. - Focusing on offensive and elastic stocks in sectors like non-ferrous metals, commercial aerospace, and semiconductor chips is recommended [7][15]. - Analysts from various firms emphasize the importance of cyclical opportunities and thematic rotations, particularly in basic chemicals and non-ferrous metals [7][15]. - The ongoing policy support and liquidity easing are expected to create favorable conditions for the market [7][15].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the challenges faced by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in 2026, including financing difficulties, compliance pressures, and competition from larger companies, while highlighting the importance of focusing on core competencies for sustainable development [1][19]. Group 1: Leveraging Policy Benefits - The issuance of long-term special government bonds is expected to reach 1.3 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, providing crucial funding for the real economy [4]. - SMEs must adopt a methodical approach to benefit from policy incentives, focusing on "precise alignment, early preparation, and compliance implementation" to convert policy benefits into tangible assets [5][6]. - Key changes include reduced application thresholds for funding, expanded support areas, and optimized approval processes, allowing more SMEs to participate in significant national projects [5][6]. Group 2: Product Focus - The market has shifted from "growth driven by trends" to "competition based on core capabilities," necessitating SMEs to concentrate on niche markets and build differentiated advantages [7]. - SMEs should avoid blindly chasing trends and instead focus on their strengths, ensuring that product development aligns with market needs [8]. - Successful product strategies involve identifying specific customer needs and establishing rapid iteration mechanisms to respond to market feedback [8][9]. Group 3: Digital Efficiency - Digital transformation is essential for SMEs, focusing on low-cost, high-impact solutions that address core business pain points [9][10]. - Implementing lightweight digital tools can significantly enhance operational efficiency, such as using sensors for equipment management and no-code platforms for production tracking [10][11]. - Marketing strategies should leverage low-cost digital channels and customer relationship management tools to improve customer acquisition and retention [11][12]. Group 4: Embracing AI - SMEs can utilize lightweight AI solutions to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, with applications in customer service, production data integration, and sales analysis [13][14]. - The article advises SMEs to adopt AI incrementally, focusing on specific business areas to validate effectiveness before broader implementation [14]. Group 5: Financing and Risk Management - Financing remains a significant challenge for SMEs, particularly in the tech sector, necessitating the development of diversified financing strategies [14][15]. - Innovative financing options include intellectual property pledges and collaborative financing models that combine equity investment with bank credit [15][16]. - Effective risk management strategies should address labor shortages and supply chain disruptions, emphasizing flexible workforce solutions and diversified supplier relationships [16][17]. Group 6: Building Resilience - SMEs should focus on strengthening their internal capabilities, including cash flow management and talent acquisition, to ensure long-term sustainability [18]. - Establishing a robust cash flow management system and leveraging government support for financing can help mitigate financial risks [18]. - Building resilience in supply chains through collaboration with larger enterprises and optimizing internal processes is crucial for maintaining operational efficiency [18].

亚太股市在新年首个交易日多数上涨，韩国综合股价指数周五创下历史新高。 韩国综合股价指数上涨 1.96%，创历史新高。据报道，三星电子客户对其高内存带宽和 HBM 芯片给予 好评，该权重股股价上涨约 6%。韩国创业板指数上涨 1.84%。中国大陆和日本等部分亚洲市场因节假 日继续休市。 香港恒生指数上涨 2.43%，教育服务类股领涨。人工智能芯片设计公司上海壁仞科技在恒指首日上市后 飙升逾 100%，此前该公司完成了 55.8 亿港元（约合 7.17 亿美元）的首次公开募股。此次公开发行获 得超过 2300 倍的超额认购，即便是在行使超额配售选择权之后；国际发行部分则获得 25.95 倍的认 购。 新加坡第四季度经济同比增长 5.7%，主要由截至 12 月的三个月内强劲的制造业增长推动。这一最新数 据较此前季度修正后的 4.3%增长更为强劲。周三，新加坡总理黄循财在其新年致辞中宣布，该国 2025 年全年经济实现了超出预期的 4.8%增长。新加坡海峡时报指数周五也创下历史新高，上涨 0.43%。 印度 Nifty 50 指数上涨 0.41%，Sensex 指数上涨 0.39%。休闲餐饮运营商 Sapphire ...

Group 1: Core Initiatives - Xiamen has launched a series of measures to boost economic growth in the first quarter of 2026, focusing on consumption, investment, and support for various sectors [1][2] - The measures include 25 specific actions aimed at stabilizing and improving the economy, aligning with national and local economic policies [2][4] Group 2: Consumer Promotion - A total of 10 million yuan will be allocated for consumer promotion activities in the first quarter, including over 100 events focused on automobiles, home appliances, and clothing [5] - The city plans to implement a consumption upgrade program, encouraging the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, and optimizing subsidy processes to enhance consumer experience [5] Group 3: Support for the Real Economy - Financial incentives will be provided to districts that excel in industrial electricity consumption, investment, and value-added output, with rewards of up to 400,000 yuan [6][7] - The government aims to enhance the development of the wholesale and retail sectors through financial support and incentives for businesses transitioning to higher operational standards [7] Group 4: Investment Expansion - The scale of the technology innovation fund will increase from 50 billion yuan to 60 billion yuan starting in 2026, broadening the scope of supported industrial projects [10] - Key infrastructure projects, including the Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou intercity railway and Xiamen Xiang'an International Airport, are prioritized for expedited implementation [10][11] Group 5: Foreign Trade and Investment - Measures to support foreign trade enterprises include financial assistance for market expansion in emerging markets and incentives for cross-border e-commerce [11][12] - The city aims to simplify foreign debt registration processes and enhance financing options for high-tech and specialized small and medium-sized enterprises [12] Group 6: Agricultural Production and Employment - The government has set a target for spring grain planting across 16,200 acres and aims to stabilize production of key agricultural products [12] - Employment services will be strengthened, with plans for over 200 recruitment events and financial incentives for companies hiring new workers [13]

利率路径依然是市场关注的核心。联邦基金利率期货显示，在此前累计降息的基础上，市场仍预期 2026 年美联储有进一步宽松空间。部分投资者认为，若经济温和放缓、通胀持续回落，美联储保持偏 鸽立场将有助于稳定风险偏好。同时，围绕美联储政策独立性的讨论逐步升温。市场关注美国总统预计 于年初公布的新任美联储主席人选，这一决定可能对未来政策风格产生重要影响。在利率路径尚未完全 明朗之前，政策不确定性仍可能引发阶段性波动。 UNFX 1月2日讯（分析师 Simon）在人工智能资本开支预期、企业盈利前景以及美联储政策倾向的多重 支撑下，2026 年开年全球主要风险资产延续偏强走势。美股在 2025 年连续第三年录得双位数涨幅后， 市场风险偏好保持稳健；与此同时，美元阶段性承压，为英镑及其他非美货币提供修复空间。 在外汇市场，美元在 2025 年末录得八年来最大年度跌幅，进入新年后仍缺乏显著反弹动力。受此影 响，英镑兑美元在亚洲交易时段保持偏强走势，汇价稳定在 1.3450 上方，并一度接近 1.3480。市场普 遍认为，美联储潜在的进一步降息预期，与英国央行相对渐进的政策路径形成对比，是近期英镑获得支 撑的主要原因。英国央行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The official launch of the digital renminbi on January 1, 2026, marks a significant milestone in China's financial development, transitioning from a trial phase to a fully integrated payment method in daily economic life [1]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics - The digital renminbi is a state-issued currency with the same legal status as physical cash, fundamentally different from speculative cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin [3]. - It operates as a digital wallet linked to bank accounts, allowing users to access their funds directly, which can also accrue interest [3]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The digital renminbi is designed to enhance financial stability and prepare for potential future risks, ensuring that basic economic transactions can continue even in extreme situations, such as natural disasters [4]. - It provides a new payment channel that reduces reliance on Western-dominated payment systems, enhancing China's position in global trade and finance [5]. Group 3: Economic Management Tool - The digital renminbi's programmable features allow for more effective government subsidies, ensuring funds reach their intended targets without loss through intermediaries [7]. - It can protect consumer rights through smart contracts, ensuring that funds are only released under specific conditions, thus preventing fraud [7]. Group 4: Integration with Existing Systems - Digital renminbi will coexist with existing payment platforms like WeChat and Alipay, enhancing their functionality by allowing transactions directly from digital wallets [8]. - It features a controllable anonymity design, protecting user privacy during small transactions while enabling regulatory oversight for serious crimes [9]. Group 5: Societal Impact - The digital renminbi will facilitate smarter management and resource allocation, allowing the government to better understand market dynamics and consumer needs [11]. - It aims to enhance financial security for individuals, preventing fraud and theft while promoting better personal financial management through its features [11].

Group 1: New Economic Policies in Vietnam - From January 2026, several important new economic policies will take effect in Vietnam, including the Special Consumption Tax Law, Advertising Law, land use fee reductions, minimum wage increases, and a technology transfer mechanism for railway projects [1] Group 2: Special Consumption Tax Law - The new Special Consumption Tax Law, passed on June 14, 2025, aims to increase fiscal budget revenue, adjust consumption behavior, and guide the market towards sustainable development [2] Group 3: Advertising Law Adjustments - The amended Advertising Law, passed on June 16, 2025, focuses on administrative reform, reducing compliance costs for businesses, and enhancing the efficiency of advertising activities in a digital economy context [3] Group 4: International Financial Center Court Law - The National Assembly has passed the International Financial Center Court Law, establishing the court's functions, structure, and procedures, which is a significant legislative achievement [4] Group 5: ODA and Foreign Loan Regulations - New regulations on Official Development Assistance (ODA) and foreign loan transfer mechanisms have been introduced to enhance flexibility and expand access to preferential funding, supporting development investments [5] Group 6: Price Management Mechanism - The amended Price Law focuses on expanding regulatory scope, protecting consumers, and improving market transparency, which is essential for macroeconomic stability [6] Group 7: Macro-Economic Stability and Sustainable Development - The National Budget Law emphasizes maintaining macroeconomic stability and sustainable development, incorporating transparency and social oversight into the fiscal budget framework [7] Group 8: Railway Investment Prioritization - The Railway Law designates railways as a priority investment area, introducing mechanisms to encourage private sector participation in railway infrastructure development [8] Group 9: Statistical Law Adjustments - The amended Statistical Law aims to improve economic and social governance by reducing compliance costs and enhancing data transparency [10] Group 10: Land Use Fee Reductions - A resolution allows for reduced land use fees when converting agricultural land to residential use, aimed at alleviating financial burdens on families and meeting housing demands [11] Group 11: Agricultural Land Tax Policy - A new policy extends the tax exemption period for agricultural land use, encouraging production scale expansion and enhancing agricultural competitiveness [12] Group 12: Minimum Wage Increase - The minimum wage has been set between 3.7 million and 5.31 million VND per month, aimed at ensuring worker income and purchasing power [12] Group 13: Railway Technology Transfer Mechanism - A new decree establishes a special mechanism for technology development and transfer in the railway sector, promoting local capabilities and reducing reliance on foreign technology [13] Group 14: New Accounting Standards - The new accounting standards issued by the Ministry of Finance aim to align with international standards, enhancing financial transparency and financing capabilities for businesses [14] Group 15: Corporate Tax Incentives for Electronics Manufacturing - New standards for corporate tax incentives for electronics manufacturing companies have been introduced, aimed at reducing costs and encouraging investment in high-tech sectors [15]