投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 制裁引发供给担忧，国际油价强势反弹 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-27 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:制裁引发供给担忧，国际油价强势反弹 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给（中长期） | 偏空 | （1）EIA：EIA继续上调对2025年和2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2025年，全球原油及相关液体产量为10,585万桶/日，较2024年上升267 万桶/日。(2)OPEC:9月份OPEC国家原油产量为2844万桶/日，较8月份上升52.4万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1460.6万桶/日，较8月份上升 | | | | 10.6万桶/日。（3）IEA：9月份OPEC国家原油产量为2945万桶/日，较8月份上升86万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (10.20-10.24) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油受地缘因素影响自低位大幅上行，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶61.44美元，周涨7.32%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货 价格收于每桶64.72美元，周涨6.05%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至467.6元/桶，周涨8.09%。周初市场仍受美俄和谈影响低位运行，供应端未 受显著影响压制油价，而周中特朗普意外表示暂不考虑与俄罗斯总统普京会面，同时美国财政部加大对俄罗斯石油公司制裁，前所未有直接提 振市场地缘担忧情绪，令有消息称印度与美国进行关税谈判或减少俄油进口，更进一步拉升油价，原油回升至前期 ...

Core Insights - The India-US bilateral trade agreement appears to be nearing completion, with most issues reportedly agreed upon, but India emphasizes that any decision will prioritize national interests over external pressures [1][3][4] - Tariff issues are central to the negotiations, with the US imposing high tariffs on Indian exports, leading to a significant drop in India's exports to the US [4][7] - India is considering some concessions, such as relaxing import restrictions on corn and soybean meal, while firmly protecting its agricultural markets to safeguard local farmers [6][10] Trade Negotiation Dynamics - The US has imposed tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods, severely limiting market access for Indian products [4] - India's exports to the US fell from $6.87 billion in August to $5.43 billion in September, a decrease of $1.4 billion in just one month [4] - India is unlikely to compromise on agricultural products, as approximately 60% of its population relies on agriculture, with 85% being small farmers [6][10] Energy Procurement Issues - The procurement of Russian oil remains a contentious topic, with the US pressuring India to reduce its purchases, but India maintains that its energy security is paramount [9][12] - Despite US sanctions on Russian oil producers, India has reduced its Russian oil imports from 1.2 million barrels per day in September to 800,000 barrels per day in October, which may be seen as a gesture towards the US [12] Conclusion on Negotiation Strategy - India's approach to the negotiations is cautious, balancing the need for trade agreements with the protection of domestic interests [13] - The potential for an agreement hinges on mutual concessions, particularly regarding tariffs and agricultural imports, with both parties needing to demonstrate goodwill for a successful outcome [13]

中方暂停部分俄罗斯海运原油的采购，是对制裁风险的合理反应，而陆上管道输油和长期合作协议则为双方提供了稳定的预期。 能源合作的核心是互利共 赢，中俄在合规框架下的合作，既保障了双方的利益，也为全球能源市场的稳定贡献了力量。 2020年疫情爆发时的水平，这将限制油价的持续上涨。中国外交部此前已明确表态，中俄能源合作是"正当合法"的，坚决反对没有国际法依据的单边制裁， 这为两国未来的合作奠定了基调。 由制裁引发的原油贸易变化，本质上是全球能源格局变化的缩影。 前脚美欧联手加大制裁力度，后脚中俄海运原油贸易便开始遭遇急转弯！ 10月下旬，美国将俄罗斯的主要石油公司——俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公司列 入制裁名单，欧盟也紧随其后，发布了对俄的第19轮制裁。这一系列的举措立刻引起了全球原油市场的剧烈震荡。 受到这些制裁的影响，国内的多家大型 国有企业紧急停下了从俄罗斯海运渠道购买原油的脚步。这一突然的变化，让俄罗斯向中国出口原油的压力瞬间加大，而一直以来稳定运行的中俄陆上输油 管道，立即成为了这一贸易格局中的关键要素。 此次中方暂停采购并非没有原因，其核心因素是美欧制裁的威慑力。这两家被制裁的俄罗斯企业，原油出 口量占俄罗 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, geopolitical factors are on the rise, leading to an upward correction in oil prices. However, due to the repeated attitude of Trump and macro - instability, there is a risk of a sudden decline, so participation should be cautious. In the medium - term, geopolitical factors continuously cause disturbances, making it difficult to grasp the trading rhythm. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on price rallies due to the oversupply issue, with the WTI price expected to fluctuate between $55 - 65 [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. International Crude Oil Analysis 1.1 Crude Oil Price Trends - From October 20th to 24th, international oil prices rebounded significantly. WTI returned above $60. As of October 24th, WTI settled at $61.5/barrel (+6.92%), Brent at $65.94/barrel (+8.08%), and INE SC at 466.2 yuan/barrel (+6.17%) [7]. - Various price - related data such as cross - market arbitrage, cross - period arbitrage, and financial attribute data of crude oil are presented, showing different percentage changes [10]. 1.2 Financial Aspects - Trump's remarks eased market pessimism. As of October 24th, the S&P 500 index recovered after last week's decline, and the VIX volatility fell to a low level [12]. 1.3 Crude Oil Volatility and the US Dollar Index - The crude oil ETF volatility rebounded, and the US dollar index fluctuated. As of October 24th, the crude oil volatility ETF was 38.7, and the US dollar index was 98.9417 [16]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 OPEC - Related Supply - OPEC's crude oil production increased month - on - month in September, rising by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day. Most countries started to increase production, and the eight core OPEC+ countries accelerated their production increase [19]. - According to the IEA, the production of 9 OPEC member countries increased by 760,000 barrels per day in September. The overall over - production of these 9 countries decreased compared to the previous month, and the core 7 countries postponed their compensation cuts to the first half of next year [23]. - Saudi Arabia's production continued to rise, increasing by 248,000 barrels per day to 9.961 million barrels per day in September. Iran's production also increased month - on - month, rising by 45,000 barrels per day to 3.258 million barrels per day [26]. 2.2 Russian Crude Oil Supply - OPEC data shows that Russia's crude oil production in September was 9.321 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 148,000 barrels per day. IEA data shows a production of 9.21 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 70,000 barrels per day. With increasing sanctions, Russia's production may remain at a relatively low level [34]. 2.3 US Crude Oil Supply - As of the week of October 24th, the number of active US oil rigs was 420, an increase of 2 from the previous month and a decrease of 60 year - on - year. The efficiency improvement in drilling and wells allows producers to maintain high - level production while controlling capital expenditure [38]. - As of the week of October 17th, US crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 7,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 0.96%. High oil prices since June have boosted production enthusiasm [40]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis 3.1 US Oil Product Demand - As of the week of October 17th, the total daily demand for US refined oil products was 20.014 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 288,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 1.17%. End - of - year demand may improve slightly [44]. - In the four - week period ending on October 17th, the average daily demand for US gasoline decreased by 126,000 barrels to 8.587 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%. The average daily demand for distillates increased by 28,000 barrels to 4.011 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The average daily consumption of kerosene - type products increased by 55,000 barrels to 1.712 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% [48]. - As of October 24th, the gasoline crack spread was $19.64/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $39.43/barrel. The crack spreads of gasoline and heating oil showed different trends [52]. 3.2 European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads - As of October 24th, the ICE diesel crack spread was $32.12/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $34.99/barrel. In the third quarter, European diesel performed better due to low inventory and restocking demand [56]. 3.3 Chinese Oil and Refinery Situation - In September, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 3.963 million tons year - on - year to 62.69 million tons (+6.75%), and imports increased by 1.76 million tons year - on - year to 47.25 million tons (+3.87%). Currently, China's oil demand is in the off - season, with processing volume, imports, and refinery operating rates declining [60]. 3.4 Institutional Forecasts of Demand Growth - In October, EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted this year's global crude oil demand growth rates to be 1.1 million barrels per day (up), 0.7 million barrels per day (down), and 1.3 million barrels per day (unchanged) respectively. Next year's growth rates are expected to be 1.1 million, 0.7 million, and 1.4 million barrels per day [64]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis 4.1 US Crude Oil Inventory - As of October 17th, EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 961,000 barrels to 422.82 million barrels, a year - on - year decrease of 0.75%. SPR inventories increased by 819,000 barrels to 408.56 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 770,000 barrels to 21.231 million barrels [65]. - As of the four - week period ending on October 17th, US crude oil net imports increased by 656,000 barrels per day to 1.715 million barrels per day. US refinery throughput increased by 600,000 barrels per day to 15.73 million barrels per day, and the refinery operating rate increased by 2.9 percentage points to 88.6% [69]. - As of October 24th, the WTI M1 - M2 spread was $0.54/barrel, and the M1 - M5 spread was $1.37/barrel. The WTI spread maintained a back structure [71]. 4.2 Brent Spread - As of October 24th, the Brent M1 - M2 spread was $0.74/barrel, and the M1 - M5 spread was $1.98/barrel. The Brent spread also maintained a back structure, stronger than the WTI spread due to supply concerns in Europe [74]. 5. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference 5.1 Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance - According to the EIA's October report, in 2025, the global daily oil supply is 105.85 million barrels, and the daily demand is 103.99 million barrels, resulting in a daily surplus of 1.88 million barrels, which is an increase from the previous month. The supply - demand surplus pattern is clear this year [78]. 5.2 Term Structure - The US fundamentals indicate the arrival of the off - season, and the term structure continues to flatten. Brent may maintain a stronger contango structure due to geopolitical supply concerns. However, if OPEC accelerates production in the near - term as the peak - season demand weakens, the term structure may change [81].

Core Insights - Energy security is a crucial component of national security and a fundamental guarantee for sustainable economic and social development [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for a comprehensive energy production capacity of over 4.6 billion tons of standard coal by 2025, which is a key indicator of China's energy security [5][6] Energy Production Goals - Non-fossil energy generation is targeted to exceed 39% of total power generation, with nuclear power capacity reaching 70 million kilowatts and wind and solar combined capacity exceeding 1.2 billion kilowatts [4] - Coal production capacity is to be maintained at around 4.1 billion tons per year, with average coal consumption for power generation reduced to below 300 grams of standard coal per kilowatt-hour [4] - Natural gas production is expected to exceed 230 billion cubic meters, while crude oil production is to stabilize at around 200 million tons per year [4] Current Energy Production and Consumption - In 2024, China's total energy production is projected to reach 4.98 billion tons of standard coal, a 22% increase from 2020 [6] - The share of coal in primary energy production is expected to decrease to 53.2% by 2024, while non-fossil energy production's share will rise to 19.3% [7] - Energy consumption is anticipated to grow, reaching 6.16 billion tons of standard coal by 2025, with industrial sectors being the primary consumers [8] Challenges in Energy Security - China's reliance on foreign energy sources remains high, with over 70% dependence on imported oil and about 40% on natural gas [9] - The transition to a cleaner energy structure faces challenges, including high coal consumption and the need for improved energy efficiency [9] - Energy efficiency levels in China are still below international standards, leading to increased energy demand pressure [9] International Comparisons - China's energy self-sufficiency rate is over 80%, significantly lower than the U.S. (110%) and Russia (150%) [11] - The EU's energy self-sufficiency rate is only 15%, highlighting vulnerabilities in energy security, especially post-Russia-Ukraine conflict [12] Strategic Significance of Energy Security - Enhancing energy self-sufficiency is vital for national energy security and resilience against international market fluctuations [13] - A stable energy supply supports high-quality economic development and strengthens industrial foundations [15] - Transitioning to a cleaner energy structure is essential for achieving carbon neutrality goals while maintaining energy supply stability [16] Societal and Global Implications - Reliable energy supply is crucial for improving public welfare and ensuring balanced energy access across regions [17] - Strengthening the renewable energy sector enhances international competitiveness and positions China as a leader in global energy governance [18] - Achieving the energy production capacity goals outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" is fundamental for national economic security and sustainable development [19]

这一次，美俄关系真的到了一个新的低点。10月23日，俄罗斯安全委员会副主席梅德韦杰夫在Telegram 上发文，直言不讳地将美国称为"敌人"。 此次事件的导火索，是美国对俄罗斯两大石油公司——俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公司——实施了制 裁。梅德韦杰夫毫不客气地回应，称这是一种"敌意的明显表现"，甚至警告说，这可能是"走向战争的 开始"。 事实上，背后隐藏着一系列外交关系的崩塌。在制裁宣布之前不久，特朗普突然决定取消原计划与普京 在匈牙利的会面，理由是"不想举行没有实际意义的会谈"。 从这一系列的举动可以看出，美俄高层之间的沟通已经几乎完全瘫痪。 更令俄罗斯愤怒的是，欧盟也紧随其后，宣布了对俄罗斯的第19轮制裁，制裁不仅针对能源和金融领 域，连俄罗斯的"影子油轮船队"也未能幸免。 面对这样的压力，俄罗斯的反应相当强硬。外交部直接声明，西方的制裁"不仅完全适得其反"，更可能 扰乱全球能源市场。 在美欧联合施压的情况下，俄罗斯选择了强硬回应，而乌克兰方面则对美国的新一轮制裁表示欢迎。乌 克兰总统泽连斯基称这是一项"加强国际社会对俄罗斯压力的正确举措"，还暗示这可以帮助乌克兰在未 来的谈判中争取更有利的位置。 不过，这 ...

Investment Strategy - Crude oil supply growth is slowing due to declining global oil and gas capital expenditure, which has decreased significantly since the Paris Agreement in 2015. In 2021, global oil and gas capital expenditure was $351 billion, down nearly 22% from the 2014 peak. Major energy companies are cautious about capital spending due to long-term low oil prices and increasing decarbonization pressures [9][27][28] - The Brent crude oil spot price was $63.48 per barrel, up 1.25% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil was $59.31 per barrel, up 1.75% week-on-week. The outlook suggests that oil prices will remain volatile due to geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production cuts [10][32] Crude Oil - The report indicates that the overall supply of crude oil is limited, with demand remaining resilient. The OPEC+ production cuts are expected to continue, leading to limited supply growth in the coming year [9][27] - The report suggests focusing on companies that benefit from mid-to-high oil price fluctuations, such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), and Sinopec [10][49][50] Coal - The average market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 757.9 yuan per ton, up 4.84% week-on-week. The increase in demand due to falling temperatures and the tightening of supply due to safety inspections at coal mines are driving coal prices higher [11][12] - The report highlights companies with strong resource endowments and integrated operations, such as China Shenhua Energy and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, as potential investment opportunities [12][13] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are experiencing slight increases due to ongoing demand from steel companies, despite some resistance to high-priced coal. The price of main coking coal at Jing Tang Port was 1,760 yuan per ton, up 2.92% week-on-week [14] - The report emphasizes the structural scarcity of high-quality coking coal resources in China and suggests focusing on companies like Huabei Mining and Pingmei Shenma Group that have strong resource acquisition capabilities [14] Natural Gas - The European Union is expected to ban Russian natural gas by the end of 2027, which has led to an increase in natural gas prices. The average price of natural gas in the U.S. was $3.41 per million British thermal units, up 13.0% week-on-week [15][16] - The report notes that the EU's price cap agreement on natural gas could exacerbate liquidity issues in the market, potentially leading to supply shortages [16] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services industry is expected to maintain its prosperity due to government policies supporting energy security. In 2023, the total capital expenditure of the three major oil companies was 583.3 billion yuan, with CNOOC showing a compound growth rate of 13.1% [17][18] - The report indicates that the number of active drilling rigs globally was 1,812, with a slight increase in the U.S. and Middle East regions, suggesting a stable demand for oilfield services [18]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The China - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus on addressing respective concerns, and both sides agreed to further determine specific details and complete domestic approval procedures [1][6]. - The US CPI data in September showed a certain trend, with the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of CPI and core CPI having different performances compared to expectations and previous values [1]. - For key varieties: - Copper prices are under short - term pressure, but the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap in the global copper market, supporting copper prices in the long term [2][20]. - Gold prices have experienced a sharp adjustment after a rapid rise, but the long - term narrative of gold as the ultimate safe - haven asset remains strong [2][19]. - The stock index is in a direction - selection stage. With a loose domestic liquidity environment and expected inflows of external funds, the market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [3][10]. 3. Summary by Category News - **International News**: The US and Vietnam reached a framework for a reciprocal, fair, and balanced trade agreement, and the US will maintain a 20% tariff on Vietnam while working to address obstacles for US agricultural products in the Vietnamese market [5]. - **Domestic News**: China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching a basic consensus on multiple important issues [1][6]. - **Industry News**: As of the end of September, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.72 billion kilowatts, with significant growth in solar and wind power. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased compared to the previous year [7]. Outer - Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 rose 0.79%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.06%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 1.33%, and the US dollar index rose 0.01%. Among commodities, LME copper rose 1.20%, while ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.41% [9]. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: Positive news from China - US tariff negotiations led to a rise in US stock indices and the domestic stock index. After a high - level shock in September, the stock index is in a direction - selection stage. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and the market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [3][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly. The central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, which provides some support for treasury bond futures prices. However, the easing of risk - aversion sentiment may put pressure on prices [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 0.3% at night. Geopolitical tensions pushed up oil prices, but the overall downward trend is difficult to reverse due to limited impact on Russian crude oil transportation [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.04% at night. The operating load of coal - to - olefin and methanol plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. The market is volatile [14]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber prices rose last week. Supply pressure may increase later, but weather conditions in rubber - producing areas and the progress of China - US trade negotiations will affect prices [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures fell slightly. With the easing of the external environment and the rebound of crude oil prices, polyolefins may have a short - term oscillatory rebound [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures had a slight decline. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [17][18]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices fell from high levels. Geopolitical risks decreased, and although the long - term bullish logic for gold remains, short - term adjustments occurred [2][19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell slightly at night. Concentrate supply is tight, but smelting output is growing. The Indonesian mine accident may support copper prices in the long term [2][20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell at night. Smelting output is expected to increase, and domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. The market may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke prices rose slightly on Friday night. The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel inventory reduction, hot metal production, and policy guidance [22]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices were strongly volatile at night. US soybean export inspection volume increased, and Brazilian soybean planting progressed well. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [23][24]. - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and rapeseed oil prices rose, while palm oil prices fell slightly at night. Palm oil production and export data showed an increase, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices were weakly volatile. The global sugar market is in a stock - building stage, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be weak in the short term [26]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices were strongly volatile. The US cotton market is oscillating, and the domestic cotton market is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [27]. - **Shipping Index** - **European Container Shipping**: The European container shipping index opened higher and oscillated. Shipowners are actively supporting prices at the end of the year, but the market is cautious about the peak - season space. The far - month contract is slowly recovering, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiations [28].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 (原油) 上周国际油价低位反弹，布伦特12合约涨7.09%。欧美对俄罗斯的新一轮制裁令加沙一阶段停火协 议以来的地缘风险降温再次出现转折，而上周中美马来会谈亦就出口管制、对等关税暂停延期、芬 太尼、船舶收费等议题形成初步共识，为本周中美元首的韩国会晤奠定积极基础，贸易战风险降温 进一步增加油市乐观情绪。但考虑到近期中美博弈风险的缓和亦限制了地缘犹动的影响上限，我们 认为短期原油震荡偏强、但反弹高度亦受限。 【贵金属】 近日金银延续震荡调整。周五美国公布9月CPI和核心CPI均为3%咯低于预期，市场维持年内再降息 两次预期。中美结束贸易谈判,就稳妥解决多项重要经贸议题形成初步共识。短期风险偏好有所修 复，贵金属进入阶段性高位震荡，建议暂时观望等待参与机会。本周重点关注美联储议息会议和 APEC领导人峰会。 周五沪铝震荡偏强。中美谈判释放贸易缓和信号，国内外宏观偏积极。全球供应维持低速增长预 期，8月以来铝市表观消费同比基本持平，国庆前后库存表现中性，需求亮点有限，现货反馈一般。 短期沪铝突破前高偏强震荡,但基本面驱动有限,暂时谨 ...