| | 20250512申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | | | | | 铝： 短期内或以震荡偏弱为主。 | | | | 镍： 可能短期区间波动运行 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：周末夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产 | | | | 量。根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升有望 | 幅波动 | | | 巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关 | | | | 税谈判进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：周末夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来 | | | | 看，国内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电表现良好，地产数据降幅缩 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 窄。市场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复，前期锌价的回落 | | ...

有色金属日报 2025-5-12 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 国内黑色系商品延续弱势，铝价受影响走势偏弱，不过库存重新去化使得铝价短线企稳，昨日伦铝收 涨 1.18%至 2408 美元/吨，沪铝主力合约收至 19570 元/吨。昨日沪铝加权合约持仓量 58.3 万手， 环比增加 2.6 万手，盘面空头继续增仓，期货仓单 6.6 万吨，环比减少 0.3 万吨，总体维持偏低水 平。根据 SMM 统计，国内铝锭社会库存环比周二减少 1.6 万吨，至 62 万吨，铝棒库 ...

叠加矿端报价加速下调，锂价维持偏空运行【62000-63700】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 虽然英美谈判有结果、中美贸易谈判有结果，金价或有所调整，不过未来全球 | | | 高位震荡 | 购金力量仍较多，长期看国际秩序下美元信用丧失，去美元化是主力，黄金是 | | | | 未来秩序筹码。长期战略配置价值持续存在【770-810】 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 关税影响各国经济，国内光伏需求有负面影响各国刺激政策将会出台，白银窄 幅震荡。白银品种属性看弹性大，受黄金和基本金属影响较大，操作上延续此 | | | | 前的高位区间思路对待。【8100-8380】 | | 铜 | 逢低试多 | 铜精矿紧张持续，国内库存持续去化，本周交割在即，仓单和持仓对比悬殊，警惕 | | | | 软挤仓风险，短期多单继续持有，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77300，78800】 | | 锌 | 反弹抛空 | 海外锌精矿干扰增加，海内外库存去化，短期锌止跌反弹，但预计上方空间有 | | | | ...

关税影响好转 有色金属或继续震荡运行 有色金属基础周报 2025-05-12 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 主要品种观点综述 走势状态 行情观点 操作建议 | | | 英美达成贸易协议，中美亦开始正式接触谈判，全球贸易紧张局势有所缓解。美联储暂停降息，国内提出"一揽子金融政策"，均基本符合市场预 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 高位持续横盘 | 期。特朗普关税政策反反复复，关税影响总体上相对好转，但前期给全球经济带来的不利影响仍然存在，从4月进出口数据来看对中国影响有限， | | | 铜 | | 但后续不良影响仍可能会逐步显现。基本面上，国内库存降至低位，近一个月国内库存下降明显，带动了现货升水走高和盘面Back结构扩大。TC | 区间交易 | | | 77000-79000 | 持续探底跌破-42美元，虽受 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年5月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒4月16日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示, 2025年2月, 全球锌板产量为112.45万吨,消费量为110.79万吨, 供应过剩1.66万吨。1-2月，全球锌板产量为225.30万吨，消费量为222.75 万吨,供应过剩2.55万吨。2月,全球锌矿产量为98.40万吨。1-2月,全球锌 矿产量为196.398.3万吨；偏空。 2、基差：现货22870，基差+680；偏多。 3、库存：5月9日LME锌库存较上日减少325吨至170325吨，5月9日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日减少150吨至1903吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡走势，收20日均线之 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, demand has a marginal weakening expectation, but the inventory is at a low level. The center of aluminum price operation has a downward risk, and it is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point. For alumina, the progress of new production capacity is the key focus, and the short - term price rebound space is limited, with an expected weak and volatile operation [2][68]. Summary by Related Catalogs Electrolytic Aluminum Macro - Sino - US talks have started, but the probability of reaching an agreement in the short term is limited. The US has multiple rounds of tariff talks with other countries. The US and the UK have reached a tariff agreement, canceling the 232 aluminum tariff on the UK. The US economic data is strong, and the Fed's stance is still hawkish, reducing the market's expectation of the number of Fed rate cuts to three times this year. China has introduced multiple economic stimulus policies [2]. Industry Supply - The supply side has little short - term change, with a slow increase in production. Future capacity changes will mainly involve small - scale restarts and replacement of production capacity [2]. Industry Demand - In April, the apparent consumption of aluminum increased by more than 7% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to April was more than 5% year - on - year. However, the high - growth demand did not boost market confidence. The marginal weakening of demand is highly certain. The photovoltaic module production schedule in May is expected to be 55GW, a 10% month - on - month decrease. The home appliance production schedule increases year - on - year but weakens month - on - month. The orders of photovoltaic aluminum profile enterprises have declined. Last week, the operating rates of leading aluminum profile and aluminum plate - strip - foil enterprises decreased month - on - month, while the operating rate of aluminum cables increased month - on - month [2]. Inventory - The net import of aluminum ingots is expected to remain at a high level of over 160,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum ingots in the bonded area continues to increase. The social inventory of aluminum ingots briefly increased after the May Day holiday, which is in line with the seasonality. Based on historical data, the inventory can decrease by 120,000 - 180,000 tons in the whole month. With the social inventory of aluminum ingots at over 620,000 tons at the beginning of May, it is expected to drop to a low level of over 500,000 tons next week, which is expected to support the monthly spread [2]. Trading Logic - The impact of tariffs on global aluminum demand remains to be reflected at the micro - level. The subsequent low - level social inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to support the monthly spread. However, with the marginal weakening of demand in sectors such as photovoltaics and home appliances, pay attention to the consumption inflection point from May to June. The short - term strong supply - demand performance in China cannot reverse the annual surplus pressure. The expectation of marginal demand decline in the middle of the year remains unchanged. It is expected that the aluminum price will mainly fluctuate widely. To stably break through the 20,000 - yuan mark, the global annual aluminum consumption expectation needs to improve. To break below the 19,000 - yuan mark, the weakening expectation on the demand side needs to be realized. Since the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is still at a relatively high level of about 3,500 yuan in recent years, pay attention to the possibility of the off - season expectation being realized ahead of schedule from June to July, leading to a decline in aluminum price and a contraction in aluminum profit [2]. Trading Strategy - The actual impact of tariffs on the global economy remains to be seen. With the expectation of marginal demand weakening but a relatively low absolute inventory level, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and derivatives trading [2]. Alumina Raw Material End - After the May Day holiday, the bauxite market had a significant price adjustment. Large mining enterprises revised the long - term agreement prices for the second quarter. The price of Guinea's mainstream 45/3 ore was lowered to $75 per dry ton (CIF). The bulk market also weakened, with the 45/3 ore quotation falling below $75 per dry ton, and some low - quality ore quotes reaching $72 per dry ton. However, buyers remained cautious. As mining enterprises and traders accelerate shipments, the alumina price recovers, and the rainy season in Guinea approaches, the procurement activities of downstream alumina enterprises are expected to gradually pick up [68]. Supply End - After the May Day holiday, the number of domestic alumina enterprises undergoing phased maintenance and production reduction continued to increase, covering regions such as Guizhou, Guangxi, and Shanxi. The total operating capacity decreased by 550,000 tons compared with before the holiday, and the operating rate was 78.2% [68]. Trading Logic - A news item last week triggered market concerns about alumina supply and pushed up the price, but the actual impact and real situation need continuous tracking. In May, both maintenance and restart of alumina production capacity occurred, and new production capacity will gradually produce finished products. Pay attention to the impact of the progress of new production capacity on the supply - demand balance shifting from short - term tight balance to surplus. The price of imported bauxite is on a downward trend, and the alumina warehouse receipts are still at a high level. If the maintenance capacity recovers, there is a possibility of positive restart. It is expected that the rebound range of the alumina price will be relatively limited, and it will maintain a weak and volatile operation [68]. Trading Strategy - In the short term, the alumina price is expected to operate weakly and volatilely. If the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged after the price rebound, consider short - selling. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and option trading [68].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore prices have shown significant loosening, prompting continued attention to investment opportunities in the steel sector. The recent financial policies, including interest rate cuts, are expected to impact the market positively. The steel sector, having undergone three years of adjustment, now presents a favorable cost-performance ratio, with leading companies showing improved profitability and stability [8][14]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Iron ore prices are experiencing notable loosening, with expectations that May's iron and steel production may peak. The steel mills are likely to squeeze iron ore profits, leading to potential downward feedback on prices. The domestic demand-driven pricing in the steel sector is seen as advantageous given the high tariffs affecting external demand [8][14]. Steel Market - The consumption of rebar has decreased significantly, with a reported consumption of 2.14 million tons, a 26.67% decrease week-on-week. The overall price index for common steel has slightly declined by 0.71%, with rebar prices at 3,296 CNY/ton, down 0.8% week-on-week [15][37]. Industrial Metals - The copper smelting fees have deepened into negative territory, with the current rough smelting fee at -43.5 USD/thousand tons, a decrease of 8.21% week-on-week. The production costs for electrolytic aluminum have shown mixed trends, with costs in Xinjiang slightly increasing while those in Shandong have decreased significantly [17][29]. Precious Metals - Tariffs are expected to boost demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, leading to a potential rise in gold prices. As of May 9, 2025, COMEX gold prices were reported at 3,329.1 USD/ounce, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.52% [17][37]. Investment Recommendations - For the steel sector, it is recommended to focus on leading companies such as Shandong Steel (600022, Buy) and Jiugang Steel (002110, Not Rated). In the non-ferrous sector, investment in Northern Rare Earth (600111, Buy) and Jinchuan Group (300748, Buy) is suggested [8][17].

铜陵有色（000630）公告，公司拟以增资方式控股有色财务公司，交易完成后，有色财务公司将成为公 司控股子公司。为此，有色财务公司将与公司控股股东有色集团签署《金融服务协议》，构成关联交 易。协议规定在有效期内，有色集团及其下属成员单位存放在有色财务公司的日最高存款余额不超过30 亿元，贷款余额不超过30亿元，授信不超过45亿元。该事项尚需提交股东大会审议批准。协议旨在提高 资金使用效率，控制风险，增加收入。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The legal opinion confirms that the procedures for the 2024 annual shareholders' meeting of Zhuzhou Smelter Group Co., Ltd. are compliant with relevant laws and regulations, ensuring the legitimacy and validity of the meeting and its resolutions [1][4][5]. Group 1: Meeting Procedures - The notice for the shareholders' meeting was published on April 11, 2025, in major financial newspapers and on the Shanghai Stock Exchange website, detailing the time, location, voting methods, and agenda [2][3]. - The meeting will be held on May 9, 2025, combining on-site voting and online voting, with the online voting period from May 8, 2025, to May 9, 2025 [3]. Group 2: Attendance and Qualifications - A total of 9 participants attended the meeting, including 5 shareholders representing 592,404,308 shares, which is 55.22% of the total shares, and 4 shareholders participating via online voting representing 19,060,022 shares, or 1.78% of the total shares [4][5]. Group 3: Voting Procedures and Results - The meeting utilized a combination of on-site and online voting, with related shareholders abstaining from voting on related party transactions. The voting results showed unanimous approval with 611,464,330 shares in favor, representing 100% of the valid voting rights [5][6][7]. - The voting results were announced immediately after the conclusion of the voting process, confirming the legitimacy of the voting procedures [6][7]. Group 4: Conclusion - The legal opinion concludes that all aspects of the shareholders' meeting, including the convening procedures, participant qualifications, and voting results, comply with the Company Law, Shareholders' Meeting Rules, and the company's articles of association, affirming the legality and validity of the meeting [4][5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, copper first declined and then rose, with LME copper up 0.73% to $9,474.5/ton and SHFE copper up 0.72% to 78,140 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import window remained open. With the market focusing on US tariff progress and the improvement expectation continuing, and the short - term boost from China - US economic and trade talks, along with the strong demand in the copper peak season since April, there is no reason to be significantly bearish on copper prices in the short - term. Copper prices are expected to reach the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. However, investors should pay attention to the downstream's acceptance when copper prices enter the high - price range again and the performance of fundamentals and inventory when the peak season weakens [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina fluctuated higher, with AO2509 closing at 2,854 yuan/ton, up 4.05%. SHFE aluminum fluctuated strongly, with AL2506 closing at 19,570 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. Due to new maintenance in Shanxi and Guangxi and the acceleration of downstream stocking after the festival, alumina showed an upward correction in the short - term. In the medium - to - long - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. For aluminum, due to limited inventory accumulation during the festival and weakening post - festival demand, short - term narrow - range adjustments are expected [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.35% to $15,575/ton, while SHFE nickel rose 0.26% to 124,000 yuan/ton. Short - term nickel ore is relatively strong, but if domestic primary nickel continues to accumulate inventory, the pressure on nickel prices will gradually emerge [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.73% to $9,474.5/ton, SHFE copper rose 0.72% to 78,140 yuan/ton. US three - year inflation expectations reached a nearly three - year high, and the EU plans to sue the US at the WTO. LME copper inventory increased by 300 tons to 194,275 tons, COMEX copper inventory increased by 1,899 tons to 143,987 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 2,001 tons to 19,540 tons. Copper prices are expected to reach 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, but pay attention to downstream acceptance and inventory performance when the peak season weakens [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina AO2509 closed at 2,854 yuan/ton, up 4.05%, and SHFE aluminum AL2506 closed at 19,570 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. SMM alumina price slightly adjusted down to 2,895 yuan/ton. New maintenance in Shanxi and Guangxi and accelerated downstream stocking after the festival led to short - term upward adjustment of alumina. In the long - term, short on rallies. Aluminum inventory accumulation was limited during the festival, and post - festival demand is weak [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell 0.35% to $15,575/ton, SHFE nickel rose 0.26% to 124,000 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,470 tons to 198,312 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 145 tons to 23,564 tons. Nickel iron prices weakened, and if domestic primary nickel accumulates inventory, it will pressure nickel prices [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On May 8, 2025, the price of flat - copper was 78,420 yuan/ton, with a decline in premium. LME registered + cancelled inventory increased by 300 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,001 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 27,446 tons on a weekly basis [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 1,550 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 50 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes increased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi spread decreased. LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,752 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased. LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 1,470 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 145 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased slightly, and the SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased. LME inventory decreased by 750 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased, and the SMM spot price increased. SHFE inventory decreased by 340 tons, and LME inventory remained unchanged [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][11] - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][18] - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25] - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32] - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38] - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]