1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, corn futures fluctuated and rose. The closing price of the main 2605 contract was 2320 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from last week. The USDA's supply and demand report was slightly positive, boosting the US corn market price. However, there is still potential import pressure in the international market, and there are also factors affecting supply in the domestic market. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [7]. - Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated and closed higher. The closing price of the main 2605 contract was 2638 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from last week. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate of corn starch production enterprises has declined, but inventory has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [9]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1. Week - by - Week Summary 3.1.1. Corn - **Market Performance**: This week, the main 2605 contract of corn futures closed at 2320 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from last week [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The USDA's supply and demand report was favorable, but there is potential import pressure. In the domestic market, the enthusiasm of farmers in the Northeast to sell grain and that of drying towers to purchase are not high. Feed enterprises' pre - holiday stocking is basically completed, and deep - processing enterprises are gradually shutting down. There are rumors that the supply of policy grains will increase after the Spring Festival. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the market has gradually become inactive. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [7]. 3.1.2. Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2638 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from last week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate of corn starch production enterprises has decreased, and inventory has increased. As of February 11, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 102.5 tons, up 3.00 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 3.02%. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Price and Position Changes - The 5 - month contract of corn futures fluctuated and rose, with a total position of 1,212,499 lots, an increase of 350,488 lots compared to last week. The 5 - month contract of corn starch futures also fluctuated and rose, with a total position of 174,854 lots, an increase of 48,601 lots compared to last week [15]. 3.2.2. Net Position Changes of the Top 20 - The net position of the top 20 in corn futures this week was - 212,341, compared with - 120,101 last week, and the net short position increased. The net position of the top 20 in starch futures was - 35,300, compared with - 28,786 last week, and the net short position increased [21]. 3.2.3. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 88,570, and those of corn starch were 11,611 [27]. 3.2.4. Spot Prices and Basis - As of February 12, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2372.16 yuan/ton. The basis between the active 5 - month contract of corn and the average spot price was + 52 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2700 yuan/ton and 2790 yuan/ton in Shandong. The basis between the 5 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 62 yuan/ton [32][36]. 3.2.5. Inter - month Spread Changes - The 5 - 7 spread of corn was - 5 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 5 - 7 spread of starch was + 7 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [42]. 3.2.6. Futures Spread Changes - The spread between the 5 - month contracts of starch and corn was 318 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 414 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to last week [51]. 3.2.7. Substitute Spread Changes - As of February 12, 2026, the average spot price of wheat was 2530.72 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2372.16 yuan/ton. The wheat - corn spread was 158.56 yuan/ton. In the 7th week of 2026, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 572 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 3 yuan/ton compared to last week [55]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Corn - **Supply Side** - As of February 6, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 43.1 tons, a decrease of 15.10 tons compared to last week; the foreign trade inventory was 8.7 tons, a decrease of 3.50 tons compared to last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 179.2 tons, an increase of 6.0 tons week - on - week. The shipping volume of the four northern ports was 70.6 tons, the same as last week [46]. - As of February 12, the overall progress of domestic farmers selling corn was 65%, a 2% increase compared to February 5, 2026, and a 4% increase year - on - year [57]. - In December 2025, China's corn import volume was 80.01 tons, a year - on - year increase of 133.12% and a month - on - month increase of 24.52 tons [61]. - As of February 12, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 33.02 days, an increase of 0.43 days compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.66% [65]. - **Demand Side** - At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, a 0.5% increase compared to the end of the previous year. Among them, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a 2.9% decrease [69]. - As of February 6, 2026, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 38.09 yuan/head, and that of purchasing piglets was 91.42 yuan/head [73]. - As of February 12, 2026, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 71 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 628 yuan/ton, - 745 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 194 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [77]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - As of February 11, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 543.8 tons, an increase of 6.07% [81]. - From February 5 to February 11, 2026, the national corn processing volume was 59.74 tons, a decrease of 1.67 tons compared to last week; the national corn starch output was 30.47 tons, a decrease of 1.15 tons compared to last week; the weekly operating rate was 55.68%, a decrease of 2.1% compared to last week. As of February 11, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 102.5 tons, an increase of 3.00 tons compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 3.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%, and a year - on - year decrease of 23.90% [85]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis As of February 13, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2605 contract of corn was 11.13%, a 0.56% increase compared to last week's 10.57%. The implied volatility first decreased and then increased this week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the tin price will undergo a wide - range oscillatory adjustment. This conclusion is based on the analysis of macro - economic data, supply - demand fundamentals, and technical indicators. The macro - economic situation shows that the US housing market data is not as expected; on the supply side, the supply of tin ore is expected to increase, but the production of refined tin is currently limited; on the demand side, the development of the AI field will drive the demand for solder. Technically, the trading volume between long and short positions has decreased [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin first rose and then fell, with a weekly increase of 2.35% and an amplitude of 12.03%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 365,400 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - aspect**: In January in the US, the annualized total number of existing home sales was 3.91 million, lower than the expected 4.15 million, and the previous value was 4.35 million. - **Supply - side**: The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in the import volume of domestic tin ore, which is expected to continue to rise in the first quarter. Recently, the processing fee for tin ore has increased slightly, indicating a sign of alleviating the tight supply of tin ore. In the smelting sector, most enterprises currently have low raw material inventories, and most are in a loss - making situation. With more year - end maintenance, the production of refined tin continues to be restricted, but there is pressure for production to increase after the Spring Festival. In terms of imports, the export volume of tin from Indonesia has increased, the import window is gradually opening, and the import pressure is increasing. - **Demand - side**: The development prospect of the AI field is strong, which will drive a significant increase in the demand for solder. Recently, the tin price has rebounded, and due to the suspension of year - end procurement, the inventory has increased, with the spot premium maintained at 2,000 yuan/ton; the LME inventory has remained stable, and the spot premium has rebounded. - **Technical - aspect**: The position has remained stable, the price has adjusted, and the trading between long and short positions has become lighter [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: As of February 13, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 361,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,290 yuan/ton or 1.49% compared to February 6. As of February 12, 2026, the closing price of LME tin was 47,800 US dollars/ton, an increase of 810 US dollars/ton or 1.72% compared to February 6 [8][11]. - **Ratio Changes**: As of February 13, 2026, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.85, an increase of 0.12 compared to February 6. As of February 11, 2026, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.86, an increase of 0.11 compared to February 5 [16]. - **Position Changes**: As of February 13, 2026, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 7,247 lots, a decrease of 548 lots compared to February 9, 2026. As of February 13, 2026, the position of Shanghai tin was 80,108 lots, a decrease of 3,010 lots or 3.62% compared to February 6 [20]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Supply - side - **Tin Ore Import**: In December 2025, the import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 17,637.24 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.81% and a year - on - year increase of 120.09%. From January to December this year, the import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 135,757.23 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.35% [26]. - **Refined Tin Production**: In October 2025, the production of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative production of refined tin was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [27]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fee**: On February 12, 2026, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, the same as on February 11, 2026; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 14,500 yuan/ton, the same as on February 11, 2026. On February 12, 2026, the average price of 40% tin concentrate was 377,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,950 yuan/ton or 0.79% compared to February 11, 2026; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 381,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,950 yuan/ton or 0.78% compared to February 11, 2026 [32]. - **Refined Tin Import Window**: As of February 12, 2026, the import profit and loss of tin was 8,064.44 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,553.76 yuan/ton compared to February 6, 2026. In December 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 15.4775 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.25%. From January to December, the cumulative import of refined tin was 23,189 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.04%. In December 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 27.6307 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 41.81% and a year - on - year increase of 32.57%. From January to December, the cumulative export of refined tin was 23,437.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.75% [35][36]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of February 12, 2026, the total LME tin inventory was 7,490 tons, an increase of 360 tons or 5.05% compared to February 5. As of February 13, 2026, the total tin inventory was 11,014 tons, an increase of 2,264 tons or 25.87% compared to last week. As of February 13, 2026, the tin futures inventory was 10,353 tons, an increase of 3,637 tons or 54.15% compared to February 6 [41]. 3.3.2. Demand - side - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: On February 12, 2026, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 8,084.7, an increase of 470.06 or 6.17% compared to February 5. From January to December 2025, the production of integrated circuits was 484,279,481,000 pieces, an increase of 32,856,516,000 pieces or 7.28% compared to the same period last year [44]. - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export**: As of December 2025, the production of tin - plated sheets was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons or 10% compared to November 2025. As of December 2025, the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 142,904.25 tons, a decrease of 4,471.33 tons or 3.03% compared to November [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market prices were volatile at high levels. Imported rubber prices rose, while domestic spot prices also increased. However, demand showed no significant improvement, and actual orders were average [10]. - Currently, domestic main producing areas are in the off - season, and overseas production is transitioning from peak to the reduction period, resulting in a decrease in overall supply. Qingdao port inventories are accumulating, and this trend is expected to continue during the Spring Festival as downstream enterprises complete their stocking and gradually enter the holiday period [10]. - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined significantly this week, and it will reach an annual low during the Spring Festival holiday next week [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - week Summary - Strategy suggestion: Pay attention to overseas macro - situations, geopolitical issues, and overseas production area conditions during the long holiday [9]. - Market review: Imported rubber market prices rose, and domestic spot prices increased due to external macro - sentiment and higher futures prices. However, demand remained weak [10]. - Market outlook: Supply is decreasing, port inventories are accumulating, and tire enterprise capacity utilization will be low during the Spring Festival [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - Price trends: The main contract price of Shanghai Rubber futures rose 1.46% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber rose 1% week - on - week [13]. - Position analysis: Not detailed in the summary part, only mentioned the top 20 position changes of Shanghai Rubber and 20 - rubber [16][18]. - Inter - delivery spread: As of February 13, the spread between Shanghai Rubber's May and September contracts was 120, and the spread between 20 - rubber's March and April contracts was - 60 [25]. - Warehouse receipts: As of February 12, Shanghai Rubber warehouse receipts were 112,570 tons, an increase of 500 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 50,803 tons, a decrease of 201 tons from last week [29]. - **Spot Market** - Domestic natural rubber: As of February 12, the price of state - owned whole latex was 16,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from last week [33]. - 20 - rubber basis and non - standard basis: As of February 12, the 20 - rubber basis was 365 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 1100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton from last week [39]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - Thailand: As of February 13, the price of field latex in Thailand was 62.3 (+3) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 55 (+1) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 8 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton from last week [42]. - Domestic: Yunnan and Hainan producing areas are in the off - season [45]. - **Import Volume** - In December 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% [51]. - **Inventory in Qingdao** - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 606,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons, or 2.55%. The bonded area inventory was 99,000 tons, an increase of 1.38%, and the general trade inventory was 507,800 tons, an increase of 2.78% [54]. - **Downstream** - Tire capacity utilization: As of February 12, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 56.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 15.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88 percentage points; the capacity utilization of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74 percentage points [57]. - Tire export: In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, the cumulative export volume was 8,430,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38% [60]. - Domestic demand: In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 39% compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period last year [63]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the content.

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.13」 碳酸锂市场周报 长假将至供需双减，锂价或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力周线震荡走强，涨跌幅为14.84%，振幅15.06%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价152640元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，国家统计局公布数据显示，1月份，我国CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，核心CPI同比上 涨0.8%；PPI环比上涨0.4%，连续4个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点，同比则下降1.4%，降幅比上月收窄0.5 个百分点。基本面原料端，锂矿价格随锂价区间波动，矿商出货意愿较强，但冶炼厂由于备货较为充足，态度偏谨慎 观望。供给端，上游冶炼厂因春节长假来临而生产产能有所减弱，加之物流停运，国内供给量逐步收减。需求端，由 于假期放假原因，加之前期锂价回落时节前采买备货基本已完成，现货市场成交较为零星，逐步清淡。整体来看，碳 酸锂基本面或将处于供需双减的局面，产业库存逐步下降 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Urea Market Weekly Report from Ruida Futures Research Institute on February 13, 2026, with researcher Lin Jingyi [2] Group 2: Weekly Summary Market Review - The domestic urea market showed a narrow - range upward trend this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong reached 1760 - 1800 yuan/ton, with the average price up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. Despite being in the last order - receiving period before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment was active, and factory prices gradually increased [7] Market Outlook - Some previously shut - down plants resumed production, increasing domestic urea output. Next week, no plant is planned to shut down, and one shut - down plant may resume. Considering possible short - term equipment failures, output is expected to remain stable. There is still some local agricultural demand, but most demand is on hold due to the Spring Festival. Compound fertilizer enterprises entered the production - reduction stage this week, with capacity utilization decreasing week - on - week. It is expected to remain low in the short term and resume after the eighth day of the first lunar month. Domestic urea enterprise inventories continued to decline this week, but may start to accumulate during the Spring Festival due to reduced long - distance logistics [7] Strategy Suggestion - During the long holiday, pay attention to the impact of external macro - situation, geopolitics, and temperature on post - festival agricultural demand [7] Group 3: Futures Market Price Movement - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 3.21% [10] Spread - As of February 13, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 41 [12] Position Analysis - No detailed information on the change of net long positions of the top 20 in urea futures is provided, only the name of the analysis item is mentioned [15] Warehouse Receipts - As of February 13, there were 10,382 warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea, a decrease of 478 from last week [20] Group 4: Spot Market Domestic Price - As of February 12, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1800 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 1810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [26] International Price - As of February 12, the FOB price of urea in China was 442.5 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton from last week [30] Basis - As of February 12, the urea basis was - 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from last week [34] Group 5: Upstream Market Coal and Gas Prices - As of February 11, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of February 12, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.23 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.19 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [37] Group 6: Industry Situation Production and Capacity Utilization - As of February 12, China's urea production was 1.4931 million tons, up 23,900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.63%. The capacity utilization rate was 90.59%, up 1.45% from the previous period [40] Inventory - As of February 12, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 166,000 tons, up 1000 tons week - on - week, a 0.61% increase. As of February 11, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 834,700 tons, down 83,800 tons from last week, a 9.12% decrease [43] Export - In December 2025, urea exports were 278,300 tons, a 53.75% decrease from the previous month [46] Group 7: Downstream Market Compound Fertilizer and Melamine - As of February 12, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 36.19%, down 5.6 percentage points week - on - week. It is expected to remain low in the next period and resume after the eighth day of the first lunar month. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 51.5%, down 7.3 percentage points from last week [49]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the port methanol market fluctuated narrowly, while the inland methanol price rose slightly. The pre - holiday inventory clearance work of enterprises was successfully completed, and the market was mainly focused on pre - selling holiday and post - holiday orders. Some local markets showed signs of bottoming out and warming up [7]. - Recently, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts in the domestic methanol industry is more than the output of restored production capacity, resulting in a decrease in overall production. The pre - holiday inventory clearance and pre - selling of goods in the inland area were carried out smoothly, and most enterprises currently have no inventory and are in a situation of queuing for loading. It is expected that the inventory of inland production enterprises will increase during the holiday. The port methanol inventory increased slightly this week, and it may rise steadily during the Spring Festival. The domestic methanol - to - olefin operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - by - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the port methanol market fluctuated narrowly. The price range in Jiangsu was 2170 - 2240 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong, it was 2200 - 2230 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price rose slightly, with the price range in the northern line of Ordos in the main production area being 1805 - 1873 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying being 2180 - 2190 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic methanol production will decrease due to more production capacity loss from maintenance and cuts. The inland inventory decreased this week but is expected to increase during the holiday. The port inventory increased slightly this week and may rise steadily during the Spring Festival. The domestic methanol - to - olefin operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Pay attention to the external macro - situation, geopolitical situation, and crude oil prices during the long holiday [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a decline of 2.5% [11]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of February 13, the MA 5 - 9 spread was - 32 [15]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: As of February 12, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 8032, an increase of 50 compared with last week [23]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of February 12, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2212.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5 yuan/ton compared with last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 1850 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.5 yuan/ton compared with last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 362.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton compared with last week [29]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of February 12, the CFR price of methanol at the main port in China was 264 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton compared with last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main port in China was 59 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton compared with last week [34]. - **Basis**: As of February 12, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 18.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.5 yuan/ton compared with last week [38]. 3.4 Industrial Chain - **Upstream**: As of February 11, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of February 12, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.23 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.19 US dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [41]. - **Industry**: As of February 12, China's methanol production was 2,056,795 tons, a decrease of 240 tons compared with last week; the device capacity utilization rate was 92.07%, a decrease of 0.01% compared with the previous week. As of February 11, the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises in China was 340,300 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 7.61% compared with the previous period; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 315,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 9.75% compared with the previous period. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4322 million tons, an increase of 21,200 tons compared with the previous data. In 2025, the cumulative import volume of methanol in China from January to December was 14.4054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75%. As of February 12, the methanol import profit was - 15.97 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared with last week [44][50][55]. - **Downstream**: As of February 12, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 85.16%, an increase of 1.34% compared with the previous week. As of February 13, the domestic methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 796 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton compared with last week [58][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [9] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [10] - Options: On hold [10] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the turmoil in the US stock market, market risk sentiment has emerged, and the demand for gold investment may slightly weaken. The gold price is expected to be in a volatile pattern in the near term, but the bullish logic remains unchanged, maintaining a cautiously bullish view. The Au2604 contract may fluctuate between 1050 yuan/gram and 1200 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the Ag2604 contract oscillating between 18500 yuan/kilogram and 21500 yuan/kilogram [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitically, US President Trump is expected to visit China in early April, and President Xi Jinping will meet with him. The Sino-US trade "truce" is expected to be extended. In the stock market, concerns about AI eroding corporate profits led to a sharp decline in the US stock market, causing a broad sell - off in risk assets. Technology stocks led the decline, with the Nasdaq down more than 2%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 3%. Gold and silver also suffered heavy losses under risk - aversion sentiment, with spot gold down more than 4% and spot silver down more than 11% at one point [2] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On February 12, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1133.80 yuan/gram and closed at 1126.12 yuan/gram, a change of - 0.38% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41087 lots, and the open interest was 129725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1123.94 yuan/gram and closed at 1100.96 yuan/gram, a 2.23% decline from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 21718.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 20626.00 yuan/kilogram, a - 1.52% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 509006 lots, and the open interest was 198505 lots. In the night session, it opened at 20400 yuan/kilogram and closed at 19188 yuan/kilogram, a 6.97% decline from the afternoon close [3] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 12, 2026, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.096%, down 7.42 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.65%, up 1.81 basis points from the previous trading day [4] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the long positions decreased by 4046 lots and the short positions decreased by 2712 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 324449 lots, a 14.97% change from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions decreased by 9695 lots and the short positions decreased by 8203 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1109141 lots, a 2.31% change from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1081.32 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16236 tons, an increase of 20 tons from the previous trading day [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 12, 2026, the domestic gold premium was - 3.89 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 138.31 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contract prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 54.60, a 1.16% change from the previous trading day, and the foreign - market gold - silver ratio was 58.89, a - 4.01% change from the previous trading day [7] Fundamentals - On February 12, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 24712 kilograms, a - 14.71% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 220352 kilograms, a - 5.23% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [8]

消费环境的疲软降低了利率预期，并改善了非收益金属的短期政策前景，尽管银价仍比1月底的峰值低 约30%，此前的抛售一度抹去近一半的价值。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特重申，近期极端波动是由投机活动驱动的，特别是来自中国交易者的活 动。市场现在关注本周晚些时候发布的延迟的美国就业和通胀数据，以进一步指导美联储的利率路径。 今日周三(2月11日)欧盘时段，白银期货目前交投于20715一线上方，今日开盘于20420元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报20628元/千克，上涨0.34%，最高触及20795元/千克，最低下探20050元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 由于美国经济数据疲软，市场预期转向更宽松的货币政策，价格获得支撑，12月零售销售意外停滞， gdp控制组下降0.1%，进一步强化了需求放缓和通胀压力减轻的迹象。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 截至2026年2月11日，沪银期货呈现高位剧烈震荡格局。技术面显示，主力合约（ag2604）在20300- 20900元/千克区间形成多空博弈焦点，日线级别收出"看跌吞没"与"锤子线"的矛盾组合，表明短期方向 ...

Group 1 - The total silver futures warehouse receipts in Shanghai reached 349,633 kilograms, with an increase of 7,531 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures contract opened at 21,718 yuan per kilogram, peaked at 21,720 yuan, and dropped to a low of 20,350 yuan, closing at 20,626 yuan, reflecting a rise of 0.62% [1] Group 2 - The total warehouse receipts in Shanghai include 53,806 kilograms from Zhongchu Wusong, 25,466 kilograms from Waiyun Huadong Hongqiao, and 233,553 kilograms from Zhonggongmei Supply Chain, with an increase of 5,913 kilograms from Zhonggongmei [2] - In Guangdong, Shenzhen Weibao contributed 36,808 kilograms, with an increase of 1,618 kilograms [2] Group 3 - U.S. inflation remains above target levels, and the interest rate stance should maintain a slightly restrictive position according to the Kansas City Fed President [2] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, exceeding market expectations of 70,000, with the unemployment rate at 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025 [2] - The hourly wage increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing expectations, while the dollar index rose by 0.07% to 96.92, indicating a long-term optimistic outlook for precious metals [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$17.80 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 20 yuan per ton to 24,480 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of -30 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 10 yuan per ton to 24,450 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of -60 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 20 yuan per ton to 24,430 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of -80 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On February 12, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,750 yuan per ton and closed at 24,650 yuan per ton, up 165 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 96,396 lots, and the open interest was 51,593 lots. The highest price during the day was 24,775 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 24,415 yuan per ton [2] Inventory - As of February 12, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 160,400 tons, an increase of 11,900 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 103,500 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons from the previous trading day [3]