Group 1 - The total silver futures warehouse receipts in Shanghai reached 349,633 kilograms, with an increase of 7,531 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures contract opened at 21,718 yuan per kilogram, peaked at 21,720 yuan, and dropped to a low of 20,350 yuan, closing at 20,626 yuan, reflecting a rise of 0.62% [1] Group 2 - The total warehouse receipts in Shanghai include 53,806 kilograms from Zhongchu Wusong, 25,466 kilograms from Waiyun Huadong Hongqiao, and 233,553 kilograms from Zhonggongmei Supply Chain, with an increase of 5,913 kilograms from Zhonggongmei [2] - In Guangdong, Shenzhen Weibao contributed 36,808 kilograms, with an increase of 1,618 kilograms [2] Group 3 - U.S. inflation remains above target levels, and the interest rate stance should maintain a slightly restrictive position according to the Kansas City Fed President [2] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, exceeding market expectations of 70,000, with the unemployment rate at 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025 [2] - The hourly wage increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing expectations, while the dollar index rose by 0.07% to 96.92, indicating a long-term optimistic outlook for precious metals [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$17.80 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 20 yuan per ton to 24,480 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of -30 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 10 yuan per ton to 24,450 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of -60 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 20 yuan per ton to 24,430 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of -80 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On February 12, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,750 yuan per ton and closed at 24,650 yuan per ton, up 165 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 96,396 lots, and the open interest was 51,593 lots. The highest price during the day was 24,775 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 24,415 yuan per ton [2] Inventory - As of February 12, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 160,400 tons, an increase of 11,900 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 103,500 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons from the previous trading day [3]

流动性日报 | 2026-02-13 市场流动性概况 2026-02-12，股指板块成交5753.46亿元，较上一交易日变动+13.82%；持仓金额16221.55亿元，较上一交易日变动 +1.54%；成交持仓比为34.89%。 国债板块成交4768.56亿元，较上一交易日变动-7.15%；持仓金额9432.71亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.56%；成交持 仓比为47.73%。 基本金属板块成交5024.98亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.98%；持仓金额6499.11亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.45%；成 交持仓比为79.58%。 贵金属板块成交7112.60亿元，较上一交易日变动+9.96%；持仓金额5091.65亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.41%；成交 持仓比为170.09%。 | 一、板块流动性 4 | | --- | | 二、股指板块 5 | | 三、国债板块 6 | | 四、基本金属与贵金属（金属板块） 7 | | 五、能源化工板块 8 | | 六、农产品板块 9 | | 七、黑色建材板块 10 | 能源化工板块成交3614.76亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.39%；持仓金额4673.74亿元，较上一交易 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month. Factors influencing the market include the stock market rally, the broad - money signal released by the Political Bureau meeting, the unchanged LPR, the continued expectation of Fed rate cuts, and increased uncertainty in global trade which adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.20%, while China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.40% [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan and a rate of 0.47%. M2 year - on - year is 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a rate of 6.25%. Manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% and a rate of - 1.60% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 96.91, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a rate of - 0.01%. The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.8968, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.003 and a rate of - 0.05%. SHIBOR 7 days is 1.52, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a rate of - 0.33%. DR007 is 1.53, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a rate of - 0.85%. R007 is 1.56, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.12 and a rate of - 6.95%. The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a rate of 0.00%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a rate of 0.00% [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the treasury bond issuance [14][17][21][24]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the local government bond issuance [28][31]. IV. Spread Overview No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the inter - period spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety and the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [30][36][38]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [40][42][47]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [48][50][51]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied yield and the maturity yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [52][53][54]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied yield and the maturity yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TL main contract [58][61][64]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: As the repurchase interest rate declines, the price of treasury bond futures oscillates [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Core View - Trump's military pressure on Iran is likely a threat to force concessions in negotiations rather than a real intention to start a war. The probability of a military strike has significantly decreased compared to the beginning of the year. If an agreement is reached between the US and Iran, the threat to the Strait of Hormuz will be eliminated, and oil prices will return to being driven by fundamentals [2] Summary by Relevant Content Market News and Key Data - WTI March crude oil futures closed down $1.79, or 2.77%, at $62.84 per barrel; Brent April crude oil futures closed down $1.88, or 2.71%, at $67.52 per barrel [1] - On February 12, the Kremlin proposed to "re - embrace the US dollar" as part of building a broad economic partnership with the Trump administration. The proposal involves potential cooperation in fossil energy investment and could reshape the global financial landscape [1] - On February 12, the IEA lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 850,000 barrels per day from 930,000 barrels per day in January. OPEC's research department predicts a 1.38 - million - barrel - per - day increase in 2026 oil demand [1] - Trump hopes to reach an agreement with Iran in about a month and warns of "very serious" consequences if no agreement is reached. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu questions the enforceability of the agreement [1] Investment Logic - Trump's military pressure on Iran is a negotiation tactic. Due to the mid - term election pressure, the cost of attacking Iran is high, and the probability of a military strike has decreased. If an agreement is reached, oil prices will be driven by fundamentals [2] Strategy - Short - term: oil prices will fluctuate within a range. Due to high uncertainty in the Iran situation, risk prevention is necessary. Medium - term: short - position allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: Sanctioned oil turning into compliant oil and macro black - swan events - Upside risks: Tightening supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic futures contracts experienced a mixed performance, with some contracts rising while others fell significantly, indicating volatility in the market [3][7]. Group 1: Price Movements - The shipping index for Europe rose over 3%, while lithium carbonate, caustic soda, soybean meal, and eggs increased by more than 2% [3][7]. - In contrast, Shanghai tin dropped over 7%, silver fell more than 5%, and SC crude oil decreased by over 4% [3][7]. Group 2: Inventory and Market Dynamics - Recent technical recovery in tin prices saw them rise from around 360,000 to just below 400,000 yuan per ton, facing upward pressure at this key level [5]. - A significant increase in warehouse receipts was noted, with a daily accumulation of 3,780 tons, raising total inventory from 6,516 tons to 10,296 tons, marking a daily increase of over 50% [5]. - The increase in inventory is attributed to major smelting companies delivering large amounts of stock, rather than a deterioration in the fundamental market conditions [5]. Group 3: Seasonal and Economic Considerations - The market is entering a seasonal slowdown due to the upcoming Spring Festival, with logistics and transportation gradually halting, and downstream soldering companies entering a holiday state [5]. - Post-holiday, attention will be on the resumption of production by downstream enterprises and the speed of inventory digestion under low hidden inventory conditions [5].

广期所碳酸锂主力合约由跌转涨，报149680元/吨，该品种此前一度跌超4%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Index futures (IH, IF, IC, IM), rubber, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, gold, silver, aluminum, lithium carbonate, corn [5] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, methanol, steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, apple [5] Core Views - The IEA has lowered the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 and expects a daily surplus of 373,000 barrels, mainly due to increased supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries [1][3][12] - The US Department of Agriculture predicts that Brazil's cotton exports in the 2025/26 season will reach 14.5 million bales, a 6% year-on-year increase [1] - The COMEX's silver inventory has decreased, with a net out-of-warehouse volume of 4.7 million ounces in 24 hours [1] - Most domestic futures contracts fell at the night session, with crude oil down over 2% and caustic soda up over 3% [1] - The overall stock index is expected to continue its phased bullish pattern in February, but potential disturbances from overseas capital markets during the Spring Festival holiday should be watched out for [4][10] - For precious metals, after market adjustment and the accumulation of new positive factors, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel, and investors are advised to wait and see for silver [2][17] Summary by Directory 1. Main News on the Day International News - US President Trump is expected to visit China in early April, and President Xi Jinping will meet with him. The China-US trade "ceasefire" is expected to be extended [6] Domestic News - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1-trillion-yuan outright repurchase operation on February 13, with a 6-month term. The 6-month outright repurchase will be increased for the sixth consecutive month, with an increase of 50 billion yuan [7] Industry News - The Ministry of Education has issued an opinion on deepening the reform of key elements in vocational education teaching, focusing on adding new majors in fields such as low-altitude economy and artificial intelligence [8] 2. Daily Returns of External Markets - Most external market varieties showed price declines on February 12, with London silver having the largest drop of 10.73%, followed by ICE Brent crude oil at 2.99% and London gold at 3.17%. Only a few varieties such as ICE No. 2 cotton, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT wheat showed price increases [9] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**：The overall stock index is expected to continue its phased bullish pattern in February, but potential disturbances from overseas capital markets during the Spring Festival holiday should be watched out for [4][10] - **Treasury Bonds**：Treasury bond futures prices are expected to stabilize, and cautious operation is recommended before the Spring Festival [11] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**：sc crude oil fell 5.14% at the night session. The global oil market is facing a large surplus, with supply growth outpacing demand [3][12] - **Methanol**：Methanol fell 0.04% at the night session. The overall coastal inventory is basically flat, and the inventory process is slow [13] - **Natural Rubber**：Natural rubber slightly declined. With the approaching Spring Festival, risk control and position reduction are recommended [14] - **Polyolefins**：Polyolefin futures mainly fell. The market currently focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and short-term prices follow cost fluctuations [15] - **Glass and Soda Ash**：Glass futures slightly fell, and soda ash futures mainly declined. The supply and demand of glass are gradually being repaired, while the supply of soda ash has slightly shrunk, and the effectiveness of supply and demand repair needs further observation [16] Metals - **Precious Metals**：Precious metals fell, with silver having a larger decline. After market adjustment and the accumulation of new positive factors, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel, and investors are advised to wait and see for silver [2][17] - **Copper**：Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [18] - **Zinc**：Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non-ferrous metals. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [19] - **Aluminum**：The short-term industrial situation of aluminum is relatively weak, but in the long term, low inventory, supply constraints, and stable demand provide relatively strong support for the price [20] - **Lithium Carbonate**：The market sentiment has turned weak again, and the futures price of lithium carbonate has continued to fall. It is recommended to pay attention to the right-side trading opportunities after volatility reduction and participate cautiously [21][22] Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**：The main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a volatile trend at the night session. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the trend of hot metal production, mine operation, and import policies [23] - **Steel**：The steel market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to continue the volatile and weak pattern [24] - **Iron Ore**：The short-term iron ore price is expected to maintain a volatile and weak operation, and steel mills are expected to replenish inventory on demand [25] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**：Domestic soybean meal has strengthened following the external market, but the high inventory and sufficient supply in the far month are expected to continue to put pressure on prices [26][27] - **Oils and Fats**：Oils and fats showed a weak and volatile trend at the night session. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is in the de-stocking cycle, and prices are expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [28] - **Sugar**：Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short term, with the international sugar price breaking through the downward trend [29] - **Cotton**：Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a range-bound trend in the near term, with potential pressure on the upside in the short term [30] - **Hogs**：The short-term hog price may show a narrow-range shock, supported by sentiment and local inventory replenishment, but the overall upside space is limited [31] Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**：EC rose 6.4%. Before the Spring Festival, it is expected to be in a volatile pattern, and after the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the verification of cargo volume expectations and the actual implementation of price increase letters [32][33]

1. Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, and suggest buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2] - For treasury bond futures, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Directory (1) Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On February 12, the four major A - share stock indexes rose across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.86%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.32%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 1.78%. The market turnover was 2.1608 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.1597 trillion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, the comprehensive, electronics, and power equipment sectors performed well, while the beauty care, commercial retail, and textile and apparel sectors performed poorly. From the perspective of market strength, IC>IM>IF>IH, and the number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 2,107, 96, and 3,273 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - investor, and retail funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were 10.1 billion yuan, - 11.3 billion yuan, - 15.3 billion yuan, and 16.5 billion yuan respectively, with changes of + 32.2 billion yuan, + 10 billion yuan, - 19.4 billion yuan, and - 22.8 billion yuan respectively [2] - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was - 23.17, - 25.23, 2.78, and - 3.27 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of 3.32%, 3.57%, - 0.7%, and 1.27% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 99%, 98%, 58%, and 66% respectively [2] - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium and long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2] (2) Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On February 12, treasury bond futures fluctuated slightly. Among the active contracts, TS decreased by 0.02%, TF remained flat, T increased by 0.02%, and TL decreased by 0.03% [2] - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2603 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 250017.IB, with a yield change of + 0bps, corresponding net basis of 0.02, and IRR of 1.3%. For the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 2500801.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25bps, corresponding net basis of - 0.014, and IRR of 1.68%. For the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 250018.IB, with a yield change of - 1.1bps, corresponding net basis of 0.027, and IRR of 1.23%. For the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 210005.IB, with a yield change of + 0bps, corresponding net basis of 0.028, and IRR of 1.29% [2] - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 566.5 billion yuan and withdrew 118.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 448 billion yuan [2] - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium and long term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [2] (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that except for infrastructure, the prosperity of all data exceeds the same period in previous years, and the infrastructure prosperity is similar to the same period in previous years [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The A-share market fluctuated and rose on February 12, 2026, with the Wind All A index up 0.46% and a trading volume of 2.16 trillion yuan. The TMT and power equipment sectors led the gains, while the consumer sector continued to decline. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.91%, the CSI 500 index rose 1.17%, the SSE 50 index fell 0.28%, and the SSE 300 index rose 0.12% [1]. - Geopolitical risks during the Spring Festival are one of the important factors affecting the A-share market. The situation between the US and Iran and the victory of right-wing political parties in Japan's elections are worthy of attention. The volatility of precious metals and other non-ferrous metals may increase, and the index volatility may rise if geopolitical conflicts break out during the festival. Since November last year, A-share technology themes have shown an increasing correlation with the US stock market. The new nominee for the Fed chairman has a more "hawkish" monetary policy stance, and the US economic data during the Spring Festival holiday may disturb the equity market [1]. - On February 12, 2026, the 30-year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.03%, the 10-year main contract rose 0.02%, the 5-year main contract rose 0.02%, and the 2-year main contract remained stable. The central bank conducted 400 billion yuan of 14-day and 166.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 448 billion yuan. In the short term, the bond market has insufficient momentum to continue to strengthen, and the pattern of interest rate range fluctuations continues [3]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market showed a mixed performance, with different index movements. Geopolitical risks and US economic data are potential influencing factors, and the market is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's open market operations and the current economic policy environment affect the bond market, which is expected to remain in a range - bound state [3]. 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: The IH contract fell 0.27%, the IF contract rose 0.04%, the IC contract rose 1.35%, and the IM contract rose 1.18% on February 12, 2026 compared with the previous day [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: The SSE 50 index fell 0.28%, the SSE 300 index rose 0.12%, the CSI 500 index rose 1.17%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 0.91% on February 12, 2026 compared with the previous day [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The TS contract rose 0.04%, the TF contract rose 0.01%, the T contract rose 0.04%, and the TL contract fell 0.04% on February 12, 2026 compared with the previous day [4]. 3. Market News - The EU announced on February 12, 2026, that it would request the WTO to establish a panel for a dispute case related to standard - essential patent licensing litigation against China. China regrets the EU's decision and will handle the case in accordance with WTO procedures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests [5][6]. 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of each index futures [8][9][10][11][12]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [15][18][19][20]. - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the exchange rate trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and other currency pairs [23][24][25][27][28].