港股有色金属板块走强，灵宝黄金涨逾7%，洛阳钼业涨逾5%，山东黄金、紫金矿业等涨逾3%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in the lunar year of the Snake has shown a strong performance, with major indices experiencing significant increases, indicating a bullish trend in the market [3][5]. Market Performance - The A-share market recorded a cumulative increase of 25.58% for the Shanghai Composite Index, 38.84% for the Shenzhen Component Index, and a remarkable 58.73% for the ChiNext Index during the trading period from February 5, 2025, to February 13, 2026 [3]. - The CSI 2000 Index, which includes 2000 smaller-cap stocks, saw a cumulative increase of 50.39%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices rose by 48.49% and 40.35%, respectively [3]. Sector Performance - The performance across various sectors was generally positive, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading with a cumulative increase of over 100%. The defense and military industry followed with an increase of nearly 80% [5]. - Other sectors such as telecommunications, electrical equipment, electronics, machinery, construction materials, basic chemicals, light industry manufacturing, and construction decoration also performed well, each with cumulative increases exceeding 50% [5]. - The banking sector lagged behind, with a cumulative increase of less than 10%, while sectors like food and beverage, non-bank financials, transportation, social services, and retail showed relatively weak performance [5]. Individual Stock Performance - Over 4600 A-shares increased in value during the trading period, accounting for nearly 90% of all A-shares, with more than 700 stocks doubling in value [7]. - Notable stocks that saw increases exceeding 500% include Upwind New Materials, Tianpu Co., and others, while stocks like *ST Aowei and *ST Yanshi experienced declines exceeding 50%, highlighting structural risks even in a bullish market [8]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a positive long-term trend due to reasonable valuations, ongoing supportive policies, and a solidifying macroeconomic recovery [8]. - Looking ahead to the Year of the Horse, it is anticipated that the A-share market will gradually stabilize and recover, with recommendations for investors to adopt a balanced and rational investment strategy focusing on fundamentally strong assets and growth sectors [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant upward trend during the Snake Year trading cycle, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 25.58% from February 5, 2025, to February 13, 2026 [1] Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed all others, with a cumulative increase of over 100% during the trading cycle [1] - The defense and military industry followed closely, achieving a cumulative increase of nearly 80% [1] - Other sectors such as telecommunications, power equipment, electronics, machinery, building materials, basic chemicals, light industry manufacturing, and construction decoration also performed well, each with cumulative increases exceeding 50% [1] - The banking sector lagged behind, with a cumulative increase of less than 10% [1] - Sectors such as food and beverage, non-bank financials, transportation, social services, and retail also showed relatively weak performance during this period [1]

农历乙巳蛇年的A股市场交易已正式收官，虽然中途有所起伏，但整体仍录得近些年来较完美表现，市场整体量价齐升。 统计数据显示，在刚刚过去的A股市场蛇年交易周期内（2025年2月5日至2026年2月13日），主要指数不同程度上涨，其中上证指数累计上涨 25.58%，深证成指上涨38.84%，创业板指涨势凌厉，其间累计大涨58.73%。 在反映不同规模股票表现的代表性指数中，中证2000指数表现凌厉，该指数在上述蛇年交易周期内累计涨幅达到50.39%。资料显示，中证2000 指数选取市值规模较小且流动性较好的2000只证券作为指数样本。另外，在上述蛇年交易周期内，中证500指数累计上涨48.49%，中证1000指数 累计涨幅则为40.35%。 从行业板块表现来看，主要板块在上述蛇年交易周期内呈现普涨格局。据Wind统计口径，若按照申万一级行业划分，有色金属板块表现一骑绝 尘，其间累计涨幅超过100%。国防军工板块居于其次，其间累计涨幅接近八成。通信、电力设备、电子、机械设备、建筑材料、基础化工、轻 工制造、建筑装饰等板块表现也较好，其间累计涨幅均超过五成。银行板块表现较弱，其间累计涨幅不足10%。此外，上述统计期内， ...

智通财经APP获悉，华金证券发布研报称，四季度陆股通持仓继续上升，主板持仓占比小幅上升，周期板块持仓占比上升。整体来看，2025年四季度陆股 通持仓总规模接近2.59万亿元，较上季度环比增加54.06亿元。Q4陆股通持仓规模最大的行业分别是电新(17.78%)、电子(13.91%)、有色金属(7.18%)；持仓 规模上升较多的行业是有色金属、通信、基础化工，下降较多的行业是医药、食品饮料、汽车。中际旭创、中国平安、思源电气等核心资产和成长类大票 外资持仓变动规模较大，TOP5持股集中度有所下降。该行预计，2026年一季度陆股通资金可能继续加仓核心资产、科技和周期等行业。 华金证券主要观点如下： 一、陆股通资金四季度在周期板块持仓占比上升 四季度陆股通持仓继续上升，主板持仓占比小幅上升，周期板块持仓占比上升。首先，整体来看，2025年四季度陆股通持仓总规模接近2.59万亿元，较上 季度环比增加54.06亿元。其次，变化上：板块方面，2025Q4陆股通资金主板持仓占比较2025Q3小幅度上升1.04pcts，创业板下降0.65pcts，科创板下降 0.39pcts；风格方面，2025Q4周期、成长、稳定风格陆股通 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current macroeconomic environment in the U.S. is reminiscent of the 1970s, where fiscal expansion and geopolitical tensions are driving a new commodity bull market, with significant implications for pricing and demand in various sectors [3][4]. - The U.S. is expected to implement a tax reduction of $396 billion in 2026, which could directly boost consumer growth by 1.8 percentage points, while the AI revolution and green transition are creating new demand dynamics [3][4]. - The commodity market is shifting from a supply-demand pricing model to one focused on liquidity and risk hedging, indicating that commodities may outperform other asset classes [4]. Group 2 - AI capital expenditure is reshaping the demand for non-ferrous metals, with significant increases in copper consumption driven by data center construction and energy storage systems [5][6]. - The first phase of AI investment is expected to double copper usage in power distribution systems, with an anticipated increase of 400,000 tons in copper consumption by 2026, representing 2% of global production [6]. - The second phase involves a surge in lithium demand, projected to grow at an annual rate of 15%-20%, while aluminum's application in energy storage systems is expected to rise above 15% [6]. Group 3 - There is a consensus in the market ranking commodities as "non-ferrous > precious metals > agricultural products > energy > ferrous," but this consensus is fragile, with risks of underestimating fundamental pricing and macro structural changes [8]. - The black metal sector faces pressure due to traditional demand drivers, and if fiscal signals do not exceed expectations by March 2026, valuation recovery for black metals may be constrained [8]. - The risk of a rollback in global decarbonization efforts could lead to a reassessment of demand premiums for green metals like copper and aluminum, with potential price adjustments exceeding expectations [9]. Group 4 - In the precious metals market, gold is viewed as a more stable investment compared to silver, supported by strong demand from central banks and ETFs, which enhances its "safe haven" status [10][11]. - Gold's unique financial attributes insulate it from industrial demand fluctuations, and its relatively low volatility makes it attractive for long-term investment [11]. - The current speculative net long positions in gold are below levels seen during last year's rate cuts, suggesting potential for price increases if monetary easing resumes [11].

Investment Rating - The report provides a recommendation rating of "Recommended" for the industry [1]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, Cameco's uranium production increased by 36% quarter-on-quarter to 600 million pounds, while the average realized price rose by 5% to $65.53 per pound [1]. - The company experienced a significant increase in external uranium procurement, with a 350% quarter-on-quarter growth to 630 million pounds [1]. - The total uranium sales volume for Q4 2025 was 1,120 million pounds, reflecting an 84% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 13% decrease year-on-year [1]. - The average inventory cost for uranium stood at $61.85 per pound, with total inventory at 970 million pounds by the end of 2025 [1]. - The fuel services segment saw a production increase of 6% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 3,800 tons of uranium [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2025, the overall revenue was CAD 1.201 billion, marking a 2% year-on-year increase and a 95% quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. - Gross profit for the same period was CAD 273 million, up 9% year-on-year and 61% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The uranium business generated revenue of CAD 1.027 billion, a 1% year-on-year decline but a 96% quarter-on-quarter increase [3][4]. - The fuel services segment achieved revenue of CAD 174 million, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase and a 91% quarter-on-quarter increase [5]. Operational Highlights - In 2025, Cameco produced 21 million pounds of uranium, exceeding the revised annual guidance of 20 million pounds announced on August 28, 2025 [7]. - The Inkai joint venture produced 8.4 million pounds of uranium in 2025, surpassing the previous year's output of 7.8 million pounds [8]. - The fuel services department achieved a record production of 14,000 tons of uranium in 2025, including 11,200 tons of hexafluoride uranium [9]. - The company successfully expanded its long-term contract portfolio in the uranium business, with approximately 230 million pounds of long-term delivery commitments remaining after fulfilling 2025's obligations [12].

Core Viewpoint - XinKe Materials (600255) clarifies its product offerings and business scope, which may influence market sentiment regarding technology concepts [1] Group 1: Product Offerings - The company currently produces copper foil products, including bronze foil, brass foil, and copper-nickel-silicon foil [1] - Bronze foil is used in board-to-board connectors and mobile phone SIM card slots, while brass foil is utilized for heating elements [1] - Copper-nickel-silicon foil is being developed for next-generation AI high-speed communication connectors, highlighting the company's focus on high-end manufacturing [1] Group 2: Business Clarifications - The company clarifies that its products do not involve copper-aluminum composite materials and that there is no ongoing share repurchase plan [1] - Additionally, the products are not applied in rocket or nuclear fusion fields, helping to delineate the company's business scope [1] Group 3: Market Performance - As of February 13, 2026, XinKe Materials' stock price closed at 3.74 yuan, down 1.32% from the previous day, with a year-to-date decline of 2.86% [2] - Over the past five days, the stock has seen a slight increase of 0.54%, with a net outflow of main funds amounting to 17.32 million yuan on the same day [2] - The turnover rate was 1.92%, with a total transaction amount of 130 million yuan, indicating potential volatility in the stock due to recent adjustments in the non-ferrous metal sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in Zijin Mining's stock prices on February 13, 2026, is attributed to major fund outflows and a systematic adjustment in the metals sector, rather than a deterioration in the company's fundamentals [1][5]. Fund Flow and Market Conditions - Major fund outflows were observed, with a net outflow of 3.435 billion yuan in A-shares, the highest in the market, and a large single order net outflow of 2.475 billion yuan [1]. - The overall decline in the non-ferrous metals sector was 3.36%, indicating a market shift from high-valuation cyclical stocks to technology and defensive sectors [1][2]. - Trading volume decreased significantly before the holiday, with A-share turnover falling below 2 trillion yuan, reflecting increased risk aversion among investors [3]. Industry Policy and Economic Environment - Changes in the US dollar and interest rate expectations have impacted gold prices, with a drop from a January high of 5,600 USD/ounce to 4,965 USD/ounce [2]. - The cyclical nature of Zijin Mining's profitability is closely tied to gold and copper prices, with estimates suggesting that a 10 USD/ounce drop in gold could reduce profits by approximately 800 million yuan [2]. Performance and Operational Insights - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a growth of 59%-62% to between 51 billion and 52 billion yuan [4]. - Production plans for 2026 include 105 tons of gold and 120,000 tons of copper, indicating ongoing capacity expansion [4]. - Zijin Mining maintains a leading position in resource reserves, with approximately 1,487 tons of gold and a globally leading copper resource volume [5].

Core Viewpoint - Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. experienced a decline on February 13, 2026, primarily influenced by broader market conditions and sector performance [1] Group 1: Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector showed weak performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.26% and the non-ferrous metal sector index falling by 3.36% [2] - The tungsten concept sector index decreased by 3.71%, impacting Xiamen Tungsten as a constituent stock [2] Group 2: Capital Flow - On February 13, Xiamen Tungsten saw a net outflow of 318 million yuan in principal funds, accounting for 8.41% of the total trading volume, indicating some investors opted to take profits [3] - Despite a net inflow of 386 million yuan in financing over the past five days, short-term capital fluctuations have intensified stock price volatility [3] Group 3: Company Valuation - As of February 13, Xiamen Tungsten's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio stood at 39.76 times, lower than the industry median of 54.91 times, but the stock price had previously increased significantly (up 27% year-to-date as of February 6), suggesting potential technical correction pressure [4] Group 4: Company Fundamentals - Xiamen Tungsten reported strong performance in 2025, with revenue growth of 31.37% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 35.08% [5] - The company plans to acquire equity in Jiujiang Dadi Mining to enhance resource security, and it holds over 80% of the global market share in photovoltaic tungsten wire, indicating a positive fundamental trend [5]