1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stocks: Short - term shock, biased towards strong operation, short - term cautious long [2][3] - Treasury bonds: Short - term high - level shock, cautious observation [2] - Commodities: - Black: Short - term low - level shock rebound, short - term cautious long [2] - Non - ferrous: Short - term shock correction, short - term cautious observation [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term shock, cautious observation [2] - Precious metals: Short - term high - level shock, cautious long [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US has postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date and imposed new tariffs on some countries, increasing short - term tariff risks and cooling global risk appetite. Domestically, the June PMI data continued to rise, economic growth accelerated, and policies helped boost domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date from July 9th to August 1st, sent letters to 14 countries about new tariffs (25% on Japan and South Korea), increasing short - term tariff risks, the US dollar index rebounded, and global risk appetite cooled [2]. - Domestic: China's June PMI data continued to rise, economic growth accelerated; domestic consumption policy stimulus increased, and the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized "anti - involution", which helped boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets, RMB appreciation, and continued warming of domestic market sentiment led to an increase in domestic risk appetite [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks short - term shock, biased towards strong; treasury bonds short - term high - level shock; black commodities short - term low - level shock rebound; non - ferrous short - term shock correction; energy and chemicals short - term shock; precious metals short - term high - level shock [2]. 3.2 Stocks - Driven by sectors such as CSSC, power, and cross - border payment, the domestic stock market rose slightly. China's June PMI data continued to rise, and policies helped boost domestic risk appetite. The current trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term macro - upward drivers weakened. Short - term cautious long [3]. 3.3 Precious metals - Trump's tariff announcements increased market risk - aversion sentiment, but the strengthening US dollar and better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data, as well as the Fed's cautious attitude, put pressure on precious metals. The "Big Beautiful Act" provides long - term support for gold. Tariff disturbances will be the main short - term influencing factor, and gold volatility is expected to rise [4]. 3.4 Black metals 3.4.1 Steel - The domestic steel spot and futures markets declined slightly, and trading volume remained low. The focus shifted to tariff negotiations. Vietnam imposed anti - dumping tariffs on Chinese hot - rolled steel, and the off - season affected demand. Supply - side production decreased, but finished product output increased slightly. Cost support was strong. Short - term range - bound thinking [5][7]. 3.4.2 Iron ore - Iron ore spot and futures prices declined slightly. Iron production decreased, indicating the effect of production - restriction policies. After the end - of - quarter shipment peak, shipping volume decreased, and arrival volume increased slightly. If iron production continues to decline, ore prices may fall [7]. 3.4.3 Silicon manganese/silicon iron - Spot prices were flat. Demand for ferroalloys was okay due to the increase in steel output, but there was a possibility of a decline in finished product output. Manganese ore prices rose. The market was expected to be range - bound in the short term [8]. 3.4.4 Soda ash - The main contract price was weak. Affected by the signal of "anti - involution" from the Central Financial and Economic Commission, there were concerns about production capacity withdrawal in the glass industry, which initially drove up the price, but then it fell due to the weak supply - demand situation. Supply decreased due to equipment maintenance, demand increased slightly, and profit decreased. In the long run, supply remained loose, and it was not advisable to go long [9]. 3.4.5 Glass - The main contract price was weak. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, there were expectations of production cuts in the glass industry, which drove up the price. Supply increased slightly, demand was weak, and profit was at a low level. Production - cut expectations on the supply side were expected to support prices [10]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and new energy 3.5.1 Copper - The market may fluctuate as the July 9th deadline approaches. The clarity of trade tariffs may help the market rise. China's refined copper production increased in 2025, and inventory was at a medium - low level due to high demand [11]. 3.5.2 Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum fell due to tariff concerns. LME inventory increased, and domestic inventory also increased slightly [11]. 3.5.3 Aluminum alloy - Entered the off - season, demand was weak, but tight scrap aluminum supply supported prices. Short - term shock, biased towards strong, but limited upside [11]. 3.5.4 Tin - Supply increased as the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi rebounded. Demand was weak in most sectors, and inventory increased. Short - term shock, but high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weakening demand would limit the upside in the medium term [12]. 3.5.5 Lithium carbonate - The main contract price fluctuated slightly. Supply faced a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality. Cost support was strong. Viewed as shock, biased towards strong [13]. 3.5.6 Industrial silicon - The main contract price was stable, and the spot price rebounded. Total production decreased due to reduced furnace - opening in the north. Benefited from the "anti - involution" theme, shock, biased towards strong [13]. 3.5.7 Polysilicon - The main contract price was strong, especially in the far - month contracts. Benefited from the "anti - involution" theme, expected to be strong, with high price elasticity [13][14]. 3.6 Energy and chemicals 3.6.1 Crude oil - Strong demand offset concerns about OPEC+ production increase and US tariffs. Short - term shock [15]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Oil prices were low, asphalt prices were in shock. Shipping volume decreased, factory inventory decreased slowly, and social inventory increased slightly. Followed crude oil at a high level [15]. 3.6.3 PX - After the decline in crude oil premium, the PX price weakened, and the PXN spread narrowed. PTA production recovery would support PX, and the weakening trend might slow down [15]. 3.6.4 PTA - Spot liquidity improved, inventory increased, and the basis and 9 - 1 spread weakened. Downstream operating rates continued to decline, and PTA prices had room to fall [16]. 3.6.5 Ethylene glycol - Port inventory decreased, supply pressure weakened, but downstream demand limited further inventory reduction. Short - term bottom - building, followed the polyester sector weakly [16]. 3.6.6 Short - fiber - Crude oil price decline drove down short - fiber prices. It followed the polyester sector, with weak terminal orders and high inventory. It would be in a weak shock pattern in the medium term [16]. 3.6.7 Methanol - Domestic maintenance and reduced arrivals provided short - term support, but international production recovery and expected downstream maintenance led to a poor supply - demand outlook. It rebounded slightly under policy influence, with limited upside [16]. 3.6.8 PP - Production - restriction and new capacity coexisted, supply pressure eased slightly. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and oil prices were weak. Prices were expected to fall further [17]. 3.6.9 LLDPE - Equipment maintenance increased, but production was still high year - on - year. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and inventory was expected to increase. Prices were under pressure [17]. 3.7 Agricultural products 3.7.1 Palm oil - As of July 4, 2025, domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. Malaysian palm oil production decreased in June, exports increased, and inventory was expected to decrease. Concerns about the US EPA hearing [19]. 3.7.2 Corn - Imported corn auctions and new wheat substitution increased supply, and futures prices were expected to weaken. However, it was difficult for futures to trade at a discount. The expected import volume was not expected to affect the new - season market, but there were concerns about pests and diseases [19][21]. 3.7.3 US soybeans - The price of CBOT soybeans fell. The planting area was determined, and weather in the 7 - 8 key growth period was crucial. The current growing environment was good, but the risk of tariff implementation increased export uncertainty [20]. 3.7.4 Soybean and rapeseed meal - Soybean inventory decreased, and soybean meal inventory increased. Oil mills had high operating rates, and supply was abundant. The supply pressure in the 09 contract period was difficult to relieve, but short - term stability in US soybeans provided some support [20]. 3.7.5 Soybean and rapeseed oil - Soybean oil production decreased, rapeseed oil inventory decreased slightly. Rapeseed oil was supported by policies and the international market, and soybean oil inventory increased. They lacked an independent market and were affected by palm oil [20]. 3.7.6 Pigs - Leading enterprises had low willingness to increase sales volume and reduce weight. Supply in July was expected to decrease due to the impact of piglet diarrhea in spring. There was a weak supply - demand situation, and the expected profit in the 8 - 9 peak season was low. Second - fattening was cautious, and the concentrated supply at the end of July and August would limit price increases [21].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is showing a slowdown trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8045 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 384,707 lots, the net position of the top 20 is - 5935 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 51,701 lots. The 8 - 9 month industrial silicon price difference is 5 [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8750 yuan/ton, the average price of 421 silicon is 9050 yuan/ton, the Si main contract basis is - 65 yuan/ton, and the DMC spot price is 10,560 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1690 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon output is 305,200 tons, the weekly social inventory is 552,000 tons, the monthly import volume is 71.51 tons, and the monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,100 yuan/ton, the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,179.3 tons, the weekly organic silicon DMC operating rate is 68.24%, the monthly aluminum alloy output is 1.645 million tons, and the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 20,187.85 tons [2]. Industry News - The US Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) states that the federal photovoltaic tax credit costs $25 billion annually but saves residents $51 billion in electricity bills and brings $15 billion in tax revenue. Canceling the subsidy would increase electricity bills, affect over 300,000 jobs, and thousands of billions in investments. Trump signed a spending bill that restricts many new energy sources and affects the demand of the new energy industry [2]. Viewpoint Summary - From the supply side, the spot price of industrial silicon has risen significantly. The electricity price in the southwest region has decreased, and large factories have plans to start production. In July, the electricity price in the southwest will further decrease, and small and medium - sized enterprises also have复产 plans. However, due to an anti - involution meeting, the probability of small factories starting furnaces is low. In the Xinjiang Yili region in the northwest, the government will continue to subsidize production enterprises with electricity price subsidies, and the supply will remain loose. From the demand side, the downstream of industrial silicon is mainly in the organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy fields. The demand from these three major downstream industries is showing a slowdown trend [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides trend forecasts for various futures products, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with different products showing trends such as rising, falling, and fluctuating [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: Continued to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Global inventories increased, and prices fluctuated, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Traded sideways, with a trend strength of 0 [2][14]. - **Lead**: Supported by short - term consumption peak season expectations, with a trend strength of 1 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Driven by the macro - environment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19][22]. - **Nickel**: Upside potential was limited, and prices were under pressure at low levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Inventories were slightly digested, and prices recovered but with limited elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices were under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][30][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to policy changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations were volatile, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][37]. - **Rebar**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][39][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][40][42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was brewing, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Coking Coal**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovered, and prices stabilized with fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55]. - **Log**: The main contract switched, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][56][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Cost support was weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][65]. - **PTA**: Close the long - PX short - PTA position, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][66]. - **MEG**: Traded in a single - sided oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][59][66]. - **Rubber**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [2][67]. Others - **Fuel Oil**: Adjusted narrowly at night, with low - level fluctuations in the market [4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Strong in the short - term, with the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market oscillating at a high level [4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 08 contract oscillated and sorted; hold a light short position in the 10 contract [4]. - **Short - Fiber**: Traded weakly with oscillations, and demand pressure gradually emerged [4]. - **Bottle Chip**: Traded weakly with oscillations, long PR short PF [4]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Fundamental contradictions were not obvious, and prices were greatly affected by international oil prices [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: There was insufficient speculation on U.S. soybean weather, lacking driving forces [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market was closed overnight, lacking guidance, and the Dalian soybean meal might oscillate [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Spot prices were stable, and the market oscillated [4]. - **Corn**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Sugar**: Traded in a narrow range [4]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to U.S. tariff policies and their impacts [4]. - **Egg**: It was difficult to increase the culling rate, and attention should be paid to the pre - emptive expectations [4]. - **Live Pig**: The gaming sentiment increased [4]. - **Peanut**: There was support at the bottom [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Bearish; Polysilicon: Sideways [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production plan of large Xinjiang factories will have a significant impact on the industrial silicon fundamentals. The polysilicon market is facing issues such as high inventory and difficulty in spot transactions, and its price increase depends on production cuts and downstream price trends. The prices of organic silicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are all under pressure, and their price rebounds may rely on administrative measures [11][12][15] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 7980 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price of East China oxygenated 553 increased by 450 yuan/ton to 8750 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 350 yuan/ton to 8050 yuan/ton. The PS2508 contract of polysilicon increased by 2195 yuan/ton to 35510 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of N-type re-feeding material increased by 300 yuan/ton to 34700 yuan/ton [9][10] 2. Polysilicon Policy Game, Pay Attention to Shorting Opportunities on Industrial Silicon Rebounds - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated this week. Yunnan and Sichuan increased their furnace openings, while Xinjiang reduced production. The weekly output was 72,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.92%. The social inventory increased by 10,000 tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 23,000 tons. If the large factory maintains 48 furnaces in operation, the industrial silicon may see a monthly inventory reduction of 60,000 tons; if it resumes full production at the eastern base, it may see a monthly inventory increase of 30,000 tons [11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of organic silicon remained stable this week. Some factories carried out maintenance or reduced production, and some resumed work. The overall enterprise operating rate was 70.44%, the weekly output was 46,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.21%, and the inventory was 49,500 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.39%. It is expected that the price will mainly operate stably [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon futures rose significantly this week. The N-type re-feeding material price increased to 36 yuan/kg on July 2. However, the downstream silicon wafers are in a cash loss state, and the spot is difficult to trade. In July, the polysilicon production schedule will increase to 107,000 tons, leading to a monthly surplus. As of July 3, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 272,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2,000 tons [12] - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of silicon wafers continued to decline this week. The inventory of silicon wafer factories was 19.22GW as of July 3, a week-on-week decrease of 0.89GW. It is expected that the production schedule in July will be adjusted down to about 52GW, and the price has a sign of stopping falling [13] - **Battery Cells**: The price of battery cells continued to decline this week. The inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 11.53GW as of June 30, a week-on-week decrease of 4.8GW. It is expected that the production schedule in July will be adjusted down to about 50GW, but the production reduction may be insufficient, and the inventory will still accumulate. The price may continue to decline [13] - **Components**: The price of components continued to decline this week. The initial production schedule of component factories in July is about 45GW, and the price is difficult to be supported fundamentally. The price rebound may rely on administrative measures [14] 3. Investment Recommendations - **Industrial Silicon**: It is recommended to pay attention to shorting opportunities on industrial silicon rebounds, and pay attention to position management when building positions on the left side [15] - **Polysilicon**: It is recommended to wait and see. Consider taking profit on the PS2508 - 2509 positive spread at an appropriate time [15] 4. Hot News Summary - In May 2025, the utilization rate of national photovoltaic power generation was 94.2%, and that of wind power was 93.2% [16] - The first - phase 25GW monocrystalline silicon wafer project of Trina Solar's Huai'an base was completed and put into operation, and the second - phase project is under construction. The total planned investment of the project is 30 billion yuan [16] - On July 3, Tongwei Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary completed a strategic capital increase of 4.916 billion yuan and introduced 11 strategic investors [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - In 2025, the price of industrial silicon showed a downward trend in the first half of the year, and the fundamentals are expected to remain weak in the second half. The supply may increase during the wet season, while the demand is overall weak, with the export market expected to decline year-on-year. The inventory pressure is large, and the cost support is relatively weak. Without policy intervention, the price is expected to range from 6,000 to 9,000 yuan/ton [7][35][36] - The cost of industrial silicon may further decrease, but it is necessary to focus on policy impacts. The supply capacity has increased, but the output has decreased. The demand shows a pattern of significant recovery in exports and suppressed demand due to polysilicon production cuts [10][11][12] Polysilicon - In the first half of 2025, the price of polysilicon first stabilized and then declined. In the second half, the supply is affected by policy disturbances and cost pressures, with certain uncertainties, but the overall operation may remain at a low level. The industry is facing a situation of large capacity, high inventory, and weak demand, and the price will face greater pressure without policy intervention. The price is expected to fluctuate between 31,000 and 40,000 yuan/ton [18][25][37] - The cost of polysilicon has significantly decreased, mainly driven by the decline in raw material prices and energy cost optimization. The supply has decreased, and the pressure of overcapacity remains large. The demand is driven by the short - term increase in domestic photovoltaic installations, but the growth rate is expected to decline [19][20][23] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 First - Half Price Review Industrial Silicon - From January to February 2025, the industrial silicon price was relatively firm due to production cuts in the southwest and northwest regions. In March, the price declined due to increased supply pressure and weak demand. From April to May, the price accelerated its decline under the influence of the US trade war and falling raw material costs. In June, the price rebounded after hitting the bottom [6][33] Polysilicon - In the first half of 2025, the price of polysilicon first stabilized and then declined. It was stable around the Spring Festival and declined in April due to reduced downstream orders and falling raw material prices [18][34] 2025 Second - Half Price Outlook Industrial Silicon - The supply is expected to increase during the wet season, and the demand is overall weak. The inventory pressure is large, and the cost support is weak. Without policy intervention, the price is expected to range from 6,000 to 9,000 yuan/ton [7][35][36] Polysilicon - The supply is affected by policy and cost, with uncertainties, but the overall operation may remain at a low level. The industry has large capacity, high inventory, and weak demand. Without policy intervention, the price will face pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate between 31,000 and 40,000 yuan/ton [18][25][37] Supply - Side Situation Industrial Silicon - As of the end of June, the overall furnace - opening rate was 27.62%. In 2024, about 650,000 tons of new capacity were added, and there were about 700,000 tons of built - but - unoperated capacity and nearly 1 million tons of planned capacity. The output from January to June 2024 decreased by 15% year - on - year, mainly due to price drops and production cuts in most regions. The northwest has become the main production area [45][46] Polysilicon - In 2024, 850,000 tons of new capacity were added, and there are still about 470,000 tons of capacity under construction or built but unoperated. The production in the first half of 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year, and the average operating rate of enterprises dropped to a historical low. The annual output is expected to decrease to about 1.2 million tons [20][102][109] Cost and Profit Industrial Silicon - In the first half of 2025, the raw material cost of industrial silicon decreased, and the full cost and cash cost also decreased. The electricity price in some areas decreased, and the prices of silicon coal, charcoal, electrodes, and silica also declined. Without policy intervention, the cost may further decrease, but the decline space is limited [55][56] Polysilicon - In 2025, the production cost of polysilicon decreased significantly, mainly due to falling raw material prices and optimized energy costs. The current tax - free cash cost of granular silicon can be controlled at 25,000 yuan/ton, and that of rod - shaped silicon is between 30,000 and 45,000 yuan/ton [19] Export - End - From January to May 2025, China's metal silicon exports totaled 272,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.31%. The annual export volume is expected to decrease by 5 - 10% year - on - year compared to 2024, mainly affected by the global economic outlook and overseas tariff policies [69] Consumption - End - In the first half of 2025, the production of polysilicon decreased significantly year - on - year, organic silicon increased slightly, and the demand for aluminum alloy increased steadily. The export volume is expected to decline due to the slowdown of overseas economies [72] Organic Silicon - As of June, the total production capacity of Chinese organic silicon monomers reached 6.88 million tons/year. The production from January to June increased by about 1% year - on - year. The consumption structure is changing, with the proportion of the traditional construction industry decreasing and that of new energy, electronics, and other fields increasing. The overall consumption growth may slow down in the second half of the year, and the annual growth rate is expected to be about 5%. The price decreased after a slight rebound in the first quarter, and the industry operating rate was between 60% and 70% [72][73] Aluminum Alloy - In 2025, the overall operation of the aluminum alloy industry remained stable, and the consumption of industrial silicon increased. From January to June, the production of primary aluminum alloy increased by 12.4% year - on - year, and that of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 1% year - on - year. The downstream consumption of aluminum alloy increased, and the primary industrial silicon consumption in 2025 is expected to be 650,000 tons [92][95] Polysilicon (Continued) Supply - Side - In early 2025, the domestic polysilicon capacity remained high, but the production decreased significantly in the first quarter due to low prices and industry self - discipline agreements. The production increased slightly in the second quarter, but the overall operating rate remained low [102] Consumption - Side - In the first half of 2025, the domestic photovoltaic installation rush significantly drove the demand for polysilicon, but the demand entered a vacuum period after June. The overseas market demand was weak. The growth rate of new installations in 2025 is expected to decline, with domestic new installations expected to be 310GW and global new installations about 610GW [112][114] Import and Export - From January to April, the export of photovoltaic modules decreased by 6% year - on - year. Only the African market showed significant growth, while the European, American, and Middle - Eastern markets declined [115] Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance Industrial Silicon - As of the end of June, the inventory of the metal silicon industry was 970,000 tons. The inventory decreased slightly in the first half of the year, is expected to increase slightly in the wet season of the second half, and may decrease slightly in the fourth quarter. The annual inventory is expected to increase slightly, and the industry inventory pressure remains high [171] Polysilicon - The upstream inventory of polysilicon is large, and the total industry inventory is expected to be higher than 400,000 tons. The total inventory decreased slightly in the first half of the year, and if the industry self - discipline production cuts are effective, a slight reduction in inventory is expected throughout the year [171]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - This week, industrial silicon prices fell 0.62%, initially rising due to spot price increases but then dropping as producers hedged; polysilicon prices rose 6.59% driven by anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, but declined later as market sentiment faded [6]. - For industrial silicon, supply will remain loose as southwest electricity prices drop and northwest regions offer subsidies. Demand from downstream sectors like organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy is weakening [6]. - For polysilicon, supply is operating at reduced capacity, and demand is under pressure due to anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry and high inventory levels. However, the release of a photovoltaic sand - control plan has improved market sentiment [6]. - It is recommended that the industrial silicon main contract oscillate between 7600 - 8600 with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800, and the polysilicon main contract oscillate between 33500 - 37500 with a stop - loss range of 30000 - 38000 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon prices initially rose due to spot price increases but fell as producers hedged; polysilicon prices rose due to anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry but declined later [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Industrial silicon supply will be loose, and demand from downstream sectors is weakening. Polysilicon supply is at reduced capacity, demand is under pressure, and inventory is high, but market sentiment has improved [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Industrial silicon main contract should oscillate between 7600 - 8600 with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800; polysilicon main contract should oscillate between 33500 - 37500 with a stop - loss range of 30000 - 38000 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: This week, both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. Industrial silicon spot prices increased, strengthening the basis; polysilicon futures prices rebounded, the basis weakened, and the basis converged [7][12][16]. - **Specific Data**: As of July 4, 2025, the industrial silicon spot price was 8760 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 765 yuan/ton; the polysilicon spot price was 32.5 yuan/kg, up 1 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was - 2531 yuan/g [14][20]. - **Supply Data**: As of July 4, 2025, the national industrial silicon output was about 76,100 tons, and the national industrial silicon capacity utilization rate was 52.41% [23]. 3. Industry Situation - **Cost**: This week, industrial silicon raw material prices slightly declined, electricity prices dropped, and overall costs continued to fall during the wet season [26]. - **Inventory**: This week, industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased, social inventory increased, but overall inventory continued to decline [31]. - **Downstream Organic Silicon**: Output and operating rates increased, short - term profits were restored, and production continued, but future costs are expected to rise and output to decrease [37][43]. - **Downstream Aluminum Alloy**: Spot prices declined, inventory increased, and passive de - stocking continued, with little demand for industrial silicon expected [49]. - **Silicon Wafer and Cell**: Prices continued to decline, dragging down polysilicon demand and thus industrial silicon demand [56]. - **Polysilicon Cost and Output**: The cost of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic grade) remained flat, industrial silicon prices fell, overall production costs were stable, and polysilicon output is expected to gradually decline [63].

| 天然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年7月4日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 7月3日 | 7月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营会乱胶(SCRWF):上海 | 13950 | 14000 | -50 | -0.36% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -65 | -125 | 60 | 48.00% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13900 | 13950 | -50 | -0.36% | | | 非标价差 | -115 | -175 | 60 | 34.29% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 48.55 | 48.20 | 0.35 | 0.73% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 54.50 | 55.00 | -0.50 | -0.91% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, short - term supply - demand shows marginal improvement, but the overall fundamental situation remains weak without policy intervention. For polysilicon, it is affected by both a weak fundamental situation with significantly weakened consumption and policy disturbances, leading to amplified price fluctuations [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On July 3, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak oscillation. The main contract 2509 opened at 8185 yuan/ton and closed at 8010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton (-0.93%) compared to the previous settlement. The open interest of the main contract 2509 was 380,840 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on July 4 was 51,854 lots, a decrease of 62 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - **Spot**: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 8600 - 8800 (50) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 8900 - 9100 (50) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 8000 - 8200 (50) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8000 - 8100 (0) yuan/ton. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on July 3 was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to last week [1]. - **Consumption**: The weekly output of silicone DMC decreased slightly. The monthly output in July is expected to increase slightly, and the demand for industrial silicon is fair. The weekly operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises weakened slightly due to weak orders in the off - season [2]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Mainly conduct range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices. - **Others**: No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options are provided [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On July 3, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures showed a strong performance, opening at 35,700 yuan/ton and closing at 35,050 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 2.14% compared to the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract was 76,908 lots (95,005 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 482,063 lots [4]. - **Spot**: The polysilicon spot price remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 32.00 - 33.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material was 30.00 - 32.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, N - type material was 36.00 - 36.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 34.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory increased slightly, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased slightly. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.20 (a 0.74% change), silicon wafer inventory was 19.22GW (a - 4.43% change), polysilicon weekly output was 24,000.00 tons (a 1.69% change), and silicon wafer output was 11.90GW (a - 11.46% change) [4][5]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Component**: The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm, N - type 210mm, and N - type 210R silicon wafers, as well as various types of battery cells and components, remained mostly stable [5]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Others**: No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options are provided. Attention should be paid to the subsequent implementation of policies, and there may still be some pressure at 36,000 yuan/ton based on the current fundamentals [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market rebounded yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products showing a volatile and upward trend. The "anti - involution and capacity reduction" proposal and the expected production restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region have pushed up the prices of steel products. However, the actual implementation of these policies needs further verification. The static fundamentals of steel have no obvious contradictions, and future attention should be paid to policy trends, terminal demand recovery, and cost support [3]. - The price of iron ore is in a wide - range volatile state in the short term. The supply of iron ore has decreased, and the demand has also declined due to factors such as seasonal maintenance of blast furnaces and production cuts by some steel mills. The impact of macro - expectations on the market has increased, and attention should be paid to the interference of production restrictions in Tangshan and the reduction of pellet production expectations by Vale [6]. - For manganese silicon and silicon iron, the prices are expected to maintain a volatile or slightly rebound state in the short term. The market is optimistic about the "capacity reduction" policy, but there are still uncertainties. Enterprises with hedging profit margins are recommended to conduct appropriate hedging operations [9][10]. - The price of industrial silicon is still in a downward trend. The market is optimistic about the "capacity reduction" policy, but the comparison with the 2015 supply - side reform is questionable. Short - term speculative short positions are recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - For glass, the policy expectation has a strong impact on the price, and short positions are recommended to avoid and wait. For soda ash, the supply is still abundant, and the inventory pressure is large. It is expected to rebound following glass, but the sustainability of the rebound is limited [15][17]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3076 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.358%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai remained flat. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3208 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.532%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in Lecong increased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai remained flat [2]. - **Fundamentals**: This week, the apparent supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory depletion speed slowed down. The output of hot - rolled coils slightly increased, the demand declined, and the inventory slightly accumulated, but it was still at a five - year low [3]. Iron Ore - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 733.00 yuan/ton, up 1.45% (+10.50). The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 725 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 35.46 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.61% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The latest iron ore shipments decreased, and the near - end arrivals also declined. The daily average pig iron output decreased, and the terminal demand was neutral. The port inventory changed little, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 3, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.24% at 5712 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was at a premium to the futures. The main contract of silicon iron (SF509) closed down 0.85% at 5390 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was also at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The prices are expected to be volatile or slightly rebound in the short term. The market is optimistic about the "capacity reduction" policy, but there are uncertainties [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 3, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed down 2.44% at 8010 yuan/ton. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China increased, and both were at a premium to the futures [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The price is still in a downward trend. The market's optimism about the "capacity reduction" policy needs further verification [12][13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe increased by 21 yuan, and that in Central China remained flat. The national inventory decreased slightly. The policy expectation pushed up the futures price, and short positions are recommended to avoid and wait [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price decreased by 20 yuan. The domestic inventory increased by 2.30%. The demand continued to decline, and the supply was still abundant. It is expected to rebound following glass, but the rebound sustainability is limited [15][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Interval operation is the main strategy, and upstream companies should sell hedging at high prices. Unilateral is neutral. [2][8] - Polysilicon: Unilateral is neutral. There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations. [8] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: On July 2, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. Short - term supply - demand margin improved due to large factories' production cuts and a slight increase in downstream production schedules, but the high total industry inventory led to hedging pressure after the rebound. The market was affected by policy expectations, and short - term observation was recommended. [1][2] - Polysilicon: On July 2, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract hit the daily limit. Affected by policies and industry self - discipline, leading companies uniformly raised quotes, but the supply - demand fundamentals remained weak. Policy game had a large impact, and participants needed to manage risks and follow up on policy implementation. [2][6] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - Futures: On July 2, 2025, the main contract 2509 opened at 7,805 yuan/ton and closed at 8,210 yuan/ton, up 4.79% from the previous settlement. The closing position was 386,361 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 51,916 lots, a decrease of 221 lots from the previous day. [1] - Supply: The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The prices of some silicon in different regions increased, while the price of 97 - silicon remained stable. [1] - Consumption: The domestic monomer enterprise's operation rate continued to increase slightly, reaching about 70%. It was expected that the DMC production schedule in July would increase by about 10,000 tons, increasing the consumption of industrial silicon. [1] Polysilicon - Futures: On July 2, 2025, the main contract 2508 hit the daily limit, opening at 33,350 yuan/ton and closing at 35,050 yuan/ton, up 6.99%. The position was 95,005 lots, and the trading volume was 411,586 lots. [2] - Spot: The spot quotes of polysilicon were raised. The N - type polysilicon price index rose by 2 yuan/kg to 36 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 5.88%, but there was no spot transaction. [2][6] - Inventory and Production: Polysilicon inventory was 27.00, a month - on - month increase of 3.05%; silicon wafer inventory was 20.11GW, a month - on - month increase of 7.30%. The weekly polysilicon production was 23,600.00 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.67%; the silicon wafer production was 13.44GW, a month - on - month increase of 4.10%. [4] Silicon Wafer, Battery Chip, and Component - Silicon Wafer: The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm, N - type 210mm, and N - type 210R silicon wafers remained unchanged. [4] - Battery Chip: The prices of various types of battery chips remained unchanged. [4] - Component: The mainstream transaction prices of various types of components remained unchanged. [5] Strategy Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Interval operation is the main strategy, and upstream companies should sell hedging at high prices. [2] - Others: There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations. [2][3] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Neutral. [8] - Others: There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations. [8] Risk Factors Industrial Silicon - Re - production and new capacity investment in the northwest and southwest regions. - Changes in polysilicon enterprise operation rates. - Policy disturbances. - Macroeconomic and capital sentiment. - Operation conditions of organic silicon enterprises. [3] Polysilicon - Impact of industry self - discipline on upstream and downstream operation rates. - Impact of futures listing on the spot market. - Impact of capital sentiment. - Impact of policy disturbances. [8]