1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Options strategies are provided for selected varieties in each sector, mainly focusing on constructing option combination strategies dominated by sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, including crude oil, liquefied gas, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil SC2509 is 533, with a price increase of 9 and a price change rate of 1.66% [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of various energy - chemical options are provided. For example, the open interest PCR of crude oil options is 0.75, indicating a weakening of short - selling power in the near term. Volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various energy - chemical option underlying assets are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interests of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 640 and the support level is 500 [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various energy - chemical options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, annual average implied volatility, call and put implied volatilities, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 32.62% [7]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental situation shows that the UAE port transfer increase implies Iran's return to global supply, while Russia's shipments are still tight. The short - term market is volatile and bullish. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **Liquefied Gas**: The supply is abundant, and the short - term market is bearish. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: The port and enterprise inventories are decreasing. The market shows a weak upward trend with pressure. Option strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The polyester load is rising. The market shows a narrow - range volatile and slightly strong trend with pressure. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: The inventory situation is complex, and the market shows a weak trend with upward pressure. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11][12]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: The social inventory is decreasing. The market shows a low - level consolidation trend. Option strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy [13]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: The inventory is increasing. The market shows a slight upward trend with pressure. Option strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy [14]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory is increasing. The market shows a volatile trend with pressure. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The inventory is at a high level and increasing. The market shows a significant decline trend with pressure. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]. 3.5.7 Other Options - **Urea**: The enterprise inventory is decreasing but the slope is slowing. The market shows a volatile trend under short - selling pressure. Option strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [16].

Group 1: Core Insights - The integration of futures markets with physical trade is becoming a key tool for companies to manage risks, particularly in the polyester industry [1][2] - Xiaoding Energy has developed a business model centered on basis trading, supported by risk management and guided by industry chain services, achieving continuous growth in trade volume for five consecutive years [1][2] - The company’s innovative use of futures tools and deep integration with upstream and downstream sectors has allowed it to create a development model characterized by "futures-spot linkage and controllable risks" [1][2] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The polyester industry is undergoing structural changes in 2024, driven by fluctuations in crude oil supply and demand, leading to a shift in pricing logic [2][3] - Domestic PX production is expected to increase by approximately 12% year-on-year in 2024, while processing profits for PX are projected to drop below $300 per ton, indicating a shift in profit distribution from PX production to downstream sectors [2][3] - The competition among integrated manufacturers is intensifying, with PTA and polyester production capacities growing at an annual rate of 10%, leading to a concentration of profits among leading firms [2][3] Group 3: Business Model Innovation - Xiaoding Energy is transitioning from traditional arbitrage models to innovative service models, focusing on basis trading, supply chain finance, and risk management [3][4] - The company has adopted basis trading as its core business model, allowing for flexible pricing based on market conditions, which enhances operational autonomy for enterprises [3][4] - Xiaoding Energy has established a comprehensive futures-spot integration system covering raw material procurement, product sales, and inventory turnover, incorporating various business models such as basis trading and price hedging [4][6] Group 4: Value Creation and Market Position - The company’s innovative approach injects new vitality into the industry chain, addressing the dual challenges of profit contraction and credit risk faced by trading firms during industry adjustments [3][6] - Xiaoding Energy's strategies have improved supply chain resilience and operational efficiency for downstream clients, allowing them to maintain stable production loads and enhance product quality [6][7] - The integration of financial tools with the real economy is seen as essential for seizing opportunities in complex markets, with Xiaoding Energy positioning itself as a pivotal enterprise in this integration process [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "volatile" [1][3][5][7][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, due to sanctions concerns leading to unstable supply expectations, the price center has shifted upwards. It should be treated with a rebound mindset in the short - term [1] - For fuel oil, if oil prices stabilize, the absolute prices of FU and LU may follow and rebound. Consider closing out short positions on the LU - FU spread, and wait for opportunities to re - enter short positions later [3] - For asphalt, in the short - term, the market is supported by low supply and inventory, and the spot price is relatively firm. Consider short - term long positions after oil prices stabilize [5] - For polyester, with cost - side support from the traditional oil demand peak season and resilient downstream demand, and low visible inventories of TA and EG, the prices are expected to oscillate strongly [5] - For rubber, short - term prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations. Pay attention to macro events at the end of July and the results of China - US tariff negotiations [7] - For methanol, after capacity utilization in Iran recovers to the peak and arrivals increase, with stable downstream profits and capacity utilization and increasing inventory, it is expected to enter an oscillatory phase after valuation repair [7] - For polyolefins, they will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, with no prominent fundamental contradictions. If the cost side does not decline significantly, the downside space is limited [7] - For PVC, supply remains at a high - level oscillation, demand is gradually recovering, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and inventory is slowly decreasing. With the basis and monthly spread widening again, short - selling power in the market will resume [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI September contract closed up $0.79 to $70.00/barrel, a 1.14% increase. Brent September contract closed up $0.73 to $73.24/barrel, a 1.01% increase. SC2508 closed at 523.6 yuan/barrel, down 7.4 yuan/barrel, a 1.39% decrease. Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian imports starting August 1st and unspecified penalties for buying Russian oil. India may cooperate, which could affect Russia's daily oil exports of 2.3 million barrels. The US sanctioned five shipping management companies and one oil wholesaler for dealing with Iranian oil. EIA data showed a 7.7 - million - barrel increase in US crude inventory, a 2.7 - million - barrel decrease in gasoline inventory (expected 0.6 - million - barrel decrease), and a 3.6 - million - barrel increase in distillate inventory (expected 0.3 - million - barrel increase) [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1.48% at 2,956 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2510 closed up 2.49% at 3,710 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of independent refineries in Shandong has been rising for 5 consecutive weeks, reaching 48.16%, but is 0.96% lower year - on - year. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in the Singapore market is sufficient, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market in Asia faces supply pressure from stable Middle East shipments [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1% at 3,650 yuan/ton. The planned asphalt production in August is 2.41 million tons, a 5% increase from July and a 25% increase year - on - year. The social inventory rate this week is 35.33%, down 0.27% from last week, the refinery inventory level is 26.22%, up 1.12%, and the refinery capacity utilization rate is 35.91%, up 3.98% [3][5] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4,856 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. EG2509 closed at 4,450 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. A 1.34 - million - ton PX plant in the Middle East has started production and is ramping up capacity. With cost - side support and resilient downstream demand, and low visible inventories, polyester prices are expected to oscillate strongly [5] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed down 65 yuan/ton at 14,945 yuan/ton, and NR closed down 95 yuan/ton at 12,575 yuan/ton. As of July 27, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, up 0.46 million tons or 0.4%. With continuous rainfall in domestic producing areas and rising tire production and exports, short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely [7] - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,407 yuan/ton. With Iranian plants operating at full capacity and increasing arrivals, stable downstream profits and capacity utilization, and increasing inventory, methanol is expected to enter an oscillatory phase after valuation repair [7] - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of PP in East China was 7,120 yuan/ton. Polyolefins will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, with limited downside space if the cost side does not decline significantly [7] - **PVC**: On Wednesday, the price of PVC in East China increased. Supply remains high, demand is recovering, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and inventory is slowly decreasing. With the basis and monthly spread widening, short - selling power in the market will resume [9] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, spot price, futures price, and their changes for various energy and chemical products including crude oil, LPG, asphalt, etc. on July 30 and 29, 2025 [10] 3.3 Market News - Trump stated that if Russia fails to make progress in ending the Ukraine war within 10 - 12 days, the US will impose measures including 100% secondary tariffs on its trading partners. The US also warned other buyers of Russian oil [13] - EIA data showed a 7.7 - million - barrel increase in US crude inventory (expected 1.3 - million - barrel decrease), a 2.7 - million - barrel decrease in gasoline inventory (expected 0.6 - million - barrel decrease), and a 3.6 - million - barrel increase in distillate inventory (expected 0.3 - million - barrel increase) [13] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents historical price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [15][17][19] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - It includes charts of the basis for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., showing their historical trends [33][34] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - Charts display the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [48][49][53] 3.4.4 Inter - product Spreads - The report shows charts of spreads between different products such as crude oil (internal - external market, B - W), fuel oil (high - low sulfur), etc. [64][65][67] 3.4.5 Production Profits - Charts present the production profits of products such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [74][75][79] 3.5 Research Team Members Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with rich experience in the futures derivatives market and many awards [81] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with multiple industry awards [82] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, winning several industry honors [83] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in energy and chemical futures and cash trading [84]

1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term supply is stable, but 8 - month downstream PTA device maintenance increases and terminal demand lacks improvement. Its trend follows macro - sentiment and oil prices. PX09 is treated with caution and short - bias, and the PX - SC spread is expanded at low levels [2]. - PTA: Current load is around 80%, but 8 - month device maintenance increases. Supply - demand improves in the short - term but weakens in the medium - term. The absolute price follows the cost and market sentiment. TA is short - biased above 4900, TA9 - 1 is in a rolling reverse spread operation, and the PTA disk processing fee is expanded at low levels [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply turns loose in August, and demand is weak in the traditional off - season. It is greatly affected by the macro in the short - term. EGO9 is on the sidelines, and 9 - 1 is in a reverse spread operation [2]. - Short - fiber: Supply - demand is weak in the short - term, and the absolute price follows the raw materials. The operation strategy is the same as TA, and the PF disk processing fee fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip: Supply is high, demand follows up generally, and the processing fee increase is limited. The absolute price follows the cost. PR is the same as PTA, and the PR main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 600 yuan/ton [2]. Urea Industry The core contradiction of the urea fundamentals is unresolved, and the market is in a shock pattern. It is recommended to use a band - trading idea, and the release of export demand needs to be tracked [10]. Crude Oil Industry Overnight oil prices rose, driven by macro and geopolitical factors. In the short - term, the upward momentum of prices depends on the continuation of geopolitical tensions. It is recommended to use a band - trading idea, with short - term long - bias [55]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: The disk is volatile and relatively resistant to decline. Spot prices are stable for now, and it is expected that the liquid caustic soda price will be stable this week. Attention should be paid to risk avoidance [43]. - PVC: The disk is volatile and relatively resistant to decline. Spot prices are rising, and export expectations are good. However, the overall supply exceeds demand, and short - term caution is recommended [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply - demand improves slightly in the first quarter, but the destocking amplitude is limited. It follows the overall market sentiment in the short - term, and the main contract BZ2603 follows the oil price and styrene [46]. - Styrene: Supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the basis is weakening. The price is under pressure, and EB09 is in a rolling short - bias operation [46]. LLDPE and PP Industry In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and there is potential restocking demand. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. PP is short - biased (7200 - 7300), and LP01 is held [50]. Methanol Industry Inland maintenance will peak in early August, production is high, ports are slightly accumulating inventory, and the basis is weakening. In August, imports are still high, and downstream demand is weak. The MTO09 profit can be expanded at low levels [58]. 3. Summary by Catalog Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry showed small fluctuations on July 30th compared with July 29th. For example, Brent crude oil (September) rose by 1.0%, and POY150/48 price rose by 0.6% [2]. - **开工率**: Asian PX, PTA, and MEG comprehensive开工率 showed different degrees of change, with polyester comprehensive开工率 rising by 0.5% [2]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices of different contracts showed small fluctuations, and spot prices in different regions also had slight changes. For example, the 05 - contract of urea futures rose by 0.28% [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 1.26% on August 1st compared with July 31st, and factory inventory increased by 6.81% week - on - week [10]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 31st, Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose, and spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 changed [55]. - **Inventory and Production**: US crude oil production increased, and commercial crude oil inventory increased by 769.8 barrels compared with the previous week [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of East China calcium - carbide PVC increased by 0.8% [43]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Caustic soda and PVC开工率 changed slightly, and inventory also had certain fluctuations. For example, PVC total social inventory increased by 3.9% [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Pure benzene and styrene prices and spreads changed. For example, the price of pure benzene in East China spot rose by 0.7% [46]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries changed, and port inventory increased [46]. LLDPE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP showed small fluctuations. For example, the price of East China PP fiber decreased by 0.28% [50]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of PE and PP devices and their downstream industries changed, and enterprise and social inventory also had certain changes [50]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices changed. For example, the MA2509 closing price decreased by 0.62% [58]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Methanol enterprise and port inventory changed, and upstream and downstream开工率 also had certain fluctuations [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term supply is stable, affected by macro - sentiment and terminal restocking, but downstream PTA maintenance and weak terminal demand limit its drive. Follow macro - sentiment and oil prices, be cautious and bearish on PX09, and expand PX - SC spread at low levels [2]. - PTA: Load is around 80%, 8 - month maintenance increases, and short - term drive is limited. Be bearish on TA above 4900, conduct TA9 - 1 rolling reverse arbitrage, and expand PTA processing margin at low levels [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply turns loose in August, but affected by macro factors. EG99 is on the sidelines, and 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage is the main strategy [2]. - Short - fiber: Short - term supply - demand is weak, follow raw materials. Unilateral strategy is the same as TA, and PF processing margin fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip: Supply is high, demand is average, and processing margin has limited upside. PR is the same as PTA, and pay attention to expanding the processing margin at the lower end of the 350 - 600 range [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose due to geopolitical uncertainties and better - than - expected demand data. Short - term trading focuses on geopolitical risks, and the market fluctuates along the upper edge of the range. Use short - term band strategies, and capture volatility opportunities in options [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Third - quarter supply - demand improves slightly, but new device production limits de - stocking. Follow market sentiment, and BZ2603 follows oil prices and styrene [13]. - Styrene: Supply - demand is weak, port inventory increases, and basis weakens. EB09 is rolling bearish [13]. Methanol Industry - Supply is high, port inventory may increase in August, downstream demand is weak, and MTO profit is low. Expand MTO09 profit at low levels [29]. Polyolefin Industry - In August, supply pressure increases for PP and PE, demand has potential restocking conditions, and overall valuation is moderately high. PP is bearish unilaterally (7200 - 7300), and hold LP01 [32]. Urea Industry - The disk rebounds slightly, but the core contradiction remains. Supply is high, export policies limit demand, and inventory pressure increases. Pay attention to autumn fertilizer progress and device restart [34]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: The disk is strong, and the spot is stable. Supply increases and inventory may rise. The price is expected to be stable, and pay attention to risk avoidance [37][40]. - PVC: The disk sentiment recovers. Supply may increase, domestic demand is weak, and export expectations are good. The supply exceeds demand, and be cautious in the short - term [37][40] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Cash Flows**: On July 29, most polyester product prices and cash flows changed slightly. For example, Brent crude (September) rose to $72.51/barrel, and POY150/48 cash flow was - 24 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: MEG port inventory decreased slightly, and PTA device maintenance increased in August. Terminal demand showed signs of restocking but was still weak [2]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of polyester - related industries changed slightly, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 30, Brent rose to $72.51/barrel, and WTI slightly decreased. Spreads such as Brent - WTI changed [7]. - **Driving Factors**: Geopolitical risks and demand data drove oil prices, while OPEC+ production increase limited long - term gains [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, pure benzene and styrene prices changed slightly, and related spreads also changed [12]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory decreased slightly, and the operating rates of related industries changed [13]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, methanol futures prices rose, and basis and spreads changed [29]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased, and upstream and downstream operating rates changed [29]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, polyolefin futures and spot prices changed slightly, and basis and spreads changed [32]. - **Supply and Demand**: In August, supply pressure increased, and demand had potential restocking conditions [32]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, urea prices in different regions changed slightly, and spreads also changed [34]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply was high, device maintenance decreased, and export demand was restricted [34]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, caustic soda and PVC prices changed, and spreads and basis changed [37]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Chlor - alkali operating rates and downstream demand operating rates changed, and inventory also changed [37][38][39][40]

聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 7月29日 | 7月28日 | 单位 | 品种 | 7月29日 | 7月28日 | 涨跌 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 旅跌幅 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 布伦特原油(9月) | 72.51 | 70.04 | 2.47 | 3.5% | POY150/48价格 | 6720 | 6715 | ટ | 0.1% | 美元/桶 | 5 | 3.7% | FDY150/96价格 | WTI原油(9月) | 66.71 | 2.50 | 7015 | 7010 | 0.1% | 69.21 | | | 0 | 1.7% | DTY150/48价格 | 7910 | CFR日本石脑油 | ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - PX supply tightening supports price increase, and attention should be paid to PTA processing fees. The polyester industry chain is expected to maintain cost-driven fluctuations in the short term, with PTA processing fees at risk of compression [1][4] Group 2: Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On July 28, the PX main contract closed at 0.0 yuan/ton, up 1.52% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 0.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4936.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 0.0 yuan/ton [2] - Supply side: Although PX devices maintain a high operating rate, the delayed commissioning of Shenghong Petrochemical's new device and temporary maintenance of some Asian devices may lead to lower-than-expected supply growth in the third quarter. PTA manufacturers' load has increased to 76.3%, but the release of Hengli Huizhou's new production capacity has been delayed, and the 4.5 million-ton Fuhai Chuang device is scheduled for maintenance in August, temporarily alleviating supply pressure [2] - Demand side: The polyester operating rate remains at a high of 89.5%, but the average daily turnover in the Light Textile City has dropped below 10 million meters, showing signs of seasonal weakening in terminal orders. As the pre - effect of overseas Christmas orders weakens, the grey fabric inventory in the weaving sector has accumulated to a high of 40 days, which may force the polyester sector to reduce its load, increasing the pressure of marginal weakening in PTA demand [2] - Inventory side: PTA factory inventory remains at a historical low of 5 days, but social circulation inventory has accumulated to 2.4 million tons, with the total visible inventory increasing by 12% year - on - year. Considering the continuation of the mainstream suppliers' strategy of controlling shipments and the downstream polyester raw material inventory only maintained at 8 days, the structural inventory contradiction may intensify short - term price fluctuations [3] Polyester - On July 25, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6606.0 yuan/ton, up 1.32% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6660.0 yuan/ton, up 55.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 54.0 yuan/ton [4] - Supply side: The PX price fluctuated upward during the week (from 6,810 yuan/ton on July 18 to 7,062 yuan/ton on July 25), and the PTA futures price also showed a trend of first falling and then rising (weekly low of 4744 yuan/ton, closing at 4936 yuan/ton), indicating that upstream cost support is gradually strengthening [4] - Demand side: The MA15 trading volume in the Light Textile City continued to decline (from 552.27 million meters on July 18 to 508.53 million meters on July 25), indicating weakening terminal textile orders [4] - Inventory side: The current inventory of polyester staple fiber (revised value of 4.96 days) is significantly lower than the average of the past five years, but the inventory of polyester filament types such as DTY (28.42 days), FDY (22.19 days), and POY (20.40 days) is at a medium - to - high historical level, reflecting that the inventory pressure of filament types is still accumulating [4] Group 3: Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: On July 28, the main contract price was 6,890 yuan/ton, down 2.44% from July 25; the main contract trading volume was 209,146 lots, up 10.06%; the main contract open interest was 112,959 lots, down 6.91% [5] - PTA futures: On July 28, the main contract price was 4,812 yuan/ton, down 2.51% from July 25; the main contract trading volume was 1,061,018 lots, down 11.36%; the main contract open interest was 990,440 lots, down 8.23% [5] - Short - fiber futures: On July 28, the main contract price was 6,482 yuan/ton, down 1.88% from July 25; the main contract trading volume was 137,717 lots, down 4.82%; the main contract open interest was 93,598 lots, down 9.06% [5] - Other prices: The prices of some products such as Brent crude oil, US crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, and polyester filament remained stable or changed slightly during the period [5][6] Group 4: Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - Trump mentioned that Powell might be ready to cut interest rates on July 28 [7] - Middle - East conflicts: Israel announced a limited - time tactical cease - fire in the Gaza Strip, and there were potential target statements against Iran; the Yemeni Houthi rebels threatened ships related to Israeli ports [7] - National Bureau of Statistics: From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 3.4365 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [7] Supply and Demand - Demand - On July 25, the total trading volume in the Light Textile City was 6.21 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 50.0%, with the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics at 4.55 million meters and that of short - fiber fabrics at 1.67 million meters [9] Group 5: Future Market Outlook - PX's price increase may be affected by supply tightening or rising crude oil costs. PTA's price has not risen synchronously due to stable supply or unchanged downstream demand. Future attention should be paid to PX device dynamics and the improvement of polyester operating rate and the terminal market. If PX supply remains tight and PTA demand rises, PTA prices may increase; otherwise, PTA may remain volatile or decline [36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For MEG, under the recent "anti - involution" logic, the polyester sector is generally strong, but the substantial impact mainly lies in the rebound of coal prices on the cost side. The supply - side impact is expected to be limited. The inventory accumulation in the third quarter has significantly decreased, and the near - end supply - demand has marginally improved. It is recommended to wait and see before the "anti - involution" policy is implemented. For bottle chips, the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side, and the cash - flow processing fee has been slightly compressed recently, with the disk processing fee mainly for range operation [2]. - For PX - TA, the PX - PTA is generally strong driven by commodity sentiment and marginal improvement in polyester demand. The current fundamental driving force of the PX - TA industry chain is limited, and the impact of the "anti - involution" policy is difficult to assess. It is advisable to wait for further policy announcements. The near - end supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the industrial chain profit still tends to be concentrated upstream. In the short term, there may be PTA production - cut and price - support actions, and it is advisable to expand the processing fee at low prices [3][5]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs MEG - **Inventory**: The inventory at East China ports decreased to 53.3 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared to the previous period. Next Monday, the port's visible inventory is expected to increase by about 30,000 tons [1]. - **Device**: Shenhua Yulin recently reduced its load for maintenance; Jianyuan, Yueneng, and Yangmei Shouyang recently restarted and increased their loads; Zhonghuaxue is in the process of heating up and restarting but has not produced output yet. Overseas, four sets of 2.15 million - ton production capacity devices in Saudi Arabia that were temporarily shut down have restarted, and a 700,000 - ton device of US Lotte has shut down recently [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The total supply load increased to 68.35% (+2.15%), and the coal - based load increased to 74.36% (+2.15%). The demand side saw a slight increase in the load of filament and staple fiber, and the polyester load rebounded to 88.7% (+0.4%) [2]. - **Profit**: The profits of each route have been significantly repaired, and the EO - 1.3EG ratio has weakened significantly [2]. PX - TA - **PX**: Tianjin Petrochemical of PX shut down for maintenance as planned, and the load decreased to 79.9% (-1.2%). There is an expectation of increased supply in August. The PX link's efficiency has been further repaired [3][4]. - **PTA**: The PTA device has been operating stably, and the load remained at 79.9% (+0.2%). The social inventory has increased to 2.22 million tons (+20,000 tons). The TA cash - flow processing fee has been compressed again, and it has reached a historical low [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The demand side saw a slight increase in the load of filament and staple fiber, and the polyester load rebounded to 88.7% (+0.4%). The filament sales were good this week, and the inventory pressure of finished filament products has been significantly relieved [4]. Polyester - **Load**: The comprehensive polyester load rebounded to 88.7% (+0.4%), the filament load increased to 91.3% (+0.8%), and the staple fiber load increased to 90.6% (+1.1%) [2][8]. - **Sales**: This week, affected by the increase in raw material prices, the downstream speculative sentiment and replenishment rhythm led to good filament sales, and the inventory pressure of finished filament products has been significantly relieved [2]. - **Profit**: The profits of each product have different degrees of change, with the POY profit decreasing by 24 yuan/ton, the FDY profit increasing by 26 yuan/ton, etc. [8]. Device Information - **MEG Device Maintenance**: Multiple ethylene - based and coal - based MEG devices are in the process of shutdown, maintenance, or restart, with different expected restart times [12]. - **PX Device Maintenance**: Many domestic and overseas PX devices are under maintenance, with different expected restart times [13]. - **PTA Device Maintenance**: Many domestic and overseas PTA devices are shut down, with different expected restart times [14]. Production and Investment Plans - **PX**: There is currently no planned production capacity for PX in the short term, and the subsequent planned production capacity is 8.5 million tons [15]. - **PTA**: The planned production capacity in 2025 is 8.7 million tons, and the subsequent planned production capacity is 14.7 million tons [15]. - **MEG**: The planned production capacity in 2025 is 1.6 million tons, and the subsequent planned production capacity is 3.8 million tons [15]. - **Polyester**: The total planned production capacity in 2025 is 485,000 tons, covering various products such as filaments, bottle chips, and slices [17].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the chemical industry, specifically polyester products, bottle-grade PET, and ethylene glycol [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Polyester Demand and Production**: Overall polyester demand is lower than in the previous two years, with a slight decrease in operating rates. Export demand increased in the first half of the year, but orders were average from late June to July, which is traditionally a low season [1][2][3]. - **Bottle-Grade PET Market**: The bottle-grade PET market is currently in a relative oversupply cycle, with rapid expansion since 2023, adding approximately 4 million tons of new capacity annually. Total capacity has exceeded 20 million tons [1][4][6]. - **Ethylene Glycol Market**: The ethylene glycol market has low overall inventory, with prices influenced by cost factors. Prices were previously around 4,600-4,800 RMB but have stabilized at 4,200-4,300 RMB due to declining coal and oil prices [2][9][20]. - **Production Adjustments**: Various polyester products, including long filaments, short fibers, and bottle-grade PET, are experiencing losses, leading to production cuts across the board. The average operating rate is expected to remain around 89% in July, with a potential recovery in demand in September [1][5][8][19]. Additional Important Content - **High Inventory Pressure**: The bottle-grade PET industry is addressing high inventory levels through concentrated production cuts to reduce supply and alleviate inventory pressure. However, the overall industry remains in an oversupply state, making it difficult to restore processing fees to previous high levels [8][19]. - **Impact of Policies**: The anti-involution policies in the chemical industry primarily target older petrochemical facilities, with limited impact on the supply of polyester raw materials like PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol. The policies aim to reduce supply to improve profitability across the industry [16][20]. - **Future Supply and Demand Expectations**: Despite strong export demand, the supply growth rate is expected to outpace demand growth, leading to continued high inventory levels. The first half of 2025 saw a total export of 3.24 million tons of bottle-grade PET, a year-on-year increase of 17.8% [6][15]. Conclusion - The chemical industry, particularly in polyester and ethylene glycol, is navigating challenges related to demand, production cuts, and inventory management. The impact of anti-involution policies and market dynamics will continue to shape the industry's landscape in the coming months [1][2][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, particularly in the refining, olefins, and polyester sectors, suggesting potential investment opportunities in leading companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec [4][5]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is currently facing overcapacity in certain areas, with a significant portion of refining capacity being outdated. The report anticipates that accelerating the retirement of these old facilities could lead to a recovery in refining profitability [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of controlling new capacity additions and optimizing existing capacity to mitigate excessive competition, aligning with the government's "anti-involution" policies aimed at improving product quality and phasing out inefficient production [5][11]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $68.44 per barrel, down 1.21% from the previous week, while WTI futures fell 3.24% to $65.16 per barrel. The average prices for the week were $68.79 and $65.79, respectively [18]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.17 million barrels to 419 million barrels, which is 9% lower than the five-year average for this time of year [20]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased by 2 to 542, down 47 year-on-year, indicating a potential tightening in supply [31]. Refining Sector - The report notes that the refining sector is experiencing a significant oversupply, with nearly half of the capacity being outdated. The report suggests focusing on leading refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical for potential investment [4][5]. - The Singapore refining margin increased to $15.31 per barrel, indicating some improvement in refining profitability despite the overall low profit levels [4]. Polyester Sector - The PTA market has shown signs of recovery, with prices increasing by 1.45% to 4790.2 RMB per ton. The report suggests that if new supply is strictly controlled, the profitability of leading polyester companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials could improve [11][15]. - The report highlights that the polyester industry is entering a phase of orderly growth, with expectations for a gradual improvement in profitability as new capacity additions slow down [11][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as top refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec, due to their favorable competitive positions and potential for profitability improvement [15][16].