Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The subscription sentiment for new science and technology innovation bonds has cooled. The supply scale of the primary market has decreased, and its anti - decline ability is being tested. When selecting bonds, it is advisable to choose individual bonds with high liquidity and strong credit support and wait for more attractive valuation points [2][4] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Issuance Scale and Structure - The subscription sentiment for new science and technology innovation bonds has cooled. Due to the rise in bond market interest rates, the financing cost of issuance subjects has increased. This week (December 1 - 5, 2025), the primary market supply scale reached 45.54 billion yuan, a significant decline from the previous two weeks. Affected by specific risk events and year - end market caution, the subscription sentiment has continued to cool, but the reading is still higher than that of non - science and technology general credit bonds [2][12] 2. Secondary Trading Activity and Pricing - **Rating and Industry Distribution**: The ratings of outstanding science and technology innovation bonds are highly concentrated. Bonds with an implied rating of AA+ and above account for 72.6%, and AA - rated medium - quality individual bonds account for 23.1%, reflecting the financing needs of some small and medium - sized science and technology innovation entities. The industry distribution is dominated by traditional industries, with the bond quantity of industries such as building decoration, public utilities, and comprehensive accounting for 37.4%. Textile and apparel, pharmaceutical biology, power equipment, and communication industries have an excess spread of over 13bp compared to the overall credit bonds of the industry [3][19] - **Liquidity**: Driven by the active trading of science and technology innovation bond ETFs this week, the number of transactions of science and technology innovation bonds has increased to 724, far exceeding the weekly average of 400 since November. However, the weekly turnover rate of science and technology innovation bonds has dropped to 1.2%, and the liquidity is weaker than the overall general credit bonds [3][28] - **Yield and Price Comparison**: The anti - decline ability of science and technology innovation bonds is being tested. Last week, the average weekly trading yield of 1 - 3 - year exchange - traded science and technology innovation bonds increased by 6.8bp compared to the previous week, with a stronger adjustment amplitude than general credit bonds of the same term. The reasons for the large retracement are the weakening of demand - side support and the partial erasure of the premium advantage. In terms of the internal price comparison of science and technology innovation bonds, the spread between the index component bonds and non - component bonds has been stable at 10 - 15bp in the past two weeks, and the spread between the inter - bank variety and the component bonds is basically within 5bp. For the 1 - 3 - year variety, there is still a compression space of 24bp [4][34]

Group 1 - The core issue is the escalating "sell-off of Japan" triggered by controversial remarks from Japanese Prime Minister Kishi Sanae regarding Taiwan, leading to a series of retaliatory measures from China and travel warnings from multiple countries [1][3][5] - The Japanese stock market has experienced a significant decline, with an average daily index drop of 2.40%, and a substantial sell-off of Japanese government bonds, indicating a broader financial crisis [1][3] - The depreciation of the yen and rising yields on Japanese government bonds suggest that capital is fleeing Japan, as investors perceive the country as increasingly risky [3][5] Group 2 - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan is beginning to acknowledge the need for improved communication with China, reflecting a shift in their approach after initially adopting a hardline stance [5][7] - There is a growing sentiment of regret among the Japanese public regarding the government's hardline rhetoric towards China, as the repercussions are felt in various sectors such as tourism and education [7][9] - Prime Minister Kishi Sanae's strategy to leverage the Taiwan issue for political gain may backfire, as public support for military intervention in Taiwan has significantly decreased following China's retaliatory actions [9]

Group 1: Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector showed strong performance on December 10, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, leading real estate ETFs to rank high in the ETF market's gainers list [1][3] - Notable real estate ETFs included: - 159768.SZ Real Estate ETF with a price of 0.575 and a daily increase of 3.79% - 159707.SZ Real Estate ETF with a price of 0.64 and a daily increase of 3.73% - 512200.SH Real Estate ETF with a price of 1.534 and a daily increase of 3.09% [4] Group 2: Agriculture Sector - The agriculture sector performed well, with themes such as seed industry, land transfer, and aquatic products showing strong performance, leading agriculture-related ETFs to rank among the top gainers [2][5] - The sentiment in the seed industry has been notably boosted, with ongoing commercialization of biological breeding benefiting leading companies [5] Group 3: Technology Sector - Technology ETFs experienced significant inflows, with several ETFs seeing net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan last week, and continued inflows in the first two trading days of this week [2][9] - The top net inflows for technology ETFs included: - 159352.OF Southern CSI A500 ETF with a net inflow of 15.66 billion yuan - 159600.OF Harvest CSI AAA Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF with a net inflow of 10.95 billion yuan [10] Group 4: Bond ETFs - Bond ETFs were actively traded, with several types such as Short-term Bond ETF, Benchmark Treasury Bond ETF, and Yinhua Daily Benefit ETF seeing transaction amounts exceeding 10 billion yuan [7][8] - The Short-term Bond ETF had a transaction amount of 401.12 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 54.79% [8] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Institutions suggest focusing on gold and innovative pharmaceuticals as key investment directions, with gold expected to benefit from potential monetary easing and a shift in global credit dynamics [11] - The release of China's first commercial insurance innovative drug catalog is seen as a significant step for the innovative drug industry, potentially enhancing investment opportunities in the healthcare sector [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The issuance scale of government bonds using the remaining quota for debt resolution has exceeded 280 billion yuan. The report provides a weekly update on local government bond issuance and special bond issuance progress [1][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - **Actual Issuance vs. Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From December 1st - 7th, local bonds were issued at 108.72 billion yuan, including 50.44 billion yuan of new bonds (21 billion yuan of new general bonds and 39.05 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 58.28 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (41.31 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 16.97 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds). From December 8th - 14th, local bonds are expected to be issued at 106.96 billion yuan, including 71.05 billion yuan of new bonds (21 billion yuan of new general bonds and 50.05 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 35.9 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (18.74 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 17.16 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][6] - **Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance**: The report shows the planned and actual issuance of local bonds in November and December, as well as the monthly issuance plan, actual issuance, and net financing situation of local bonds from May to December 2025 [20][21] 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply - From December 1st - 7th, the net supply of local bonds was 6.05 billion yuan; from December 8th - 14th, the forecast net supply of local bonds is 6.23 billion yuan [16] 3.3 New Bond Issuance Progress - As of December 7th, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 92.44%, and the issuance progress of new special bonds was 98.23%. The calculation denominator of the issuance progress includes the 200 - billion - yuan part of the used remaining quota, so it differs from the previous calculation method [25] 3.4 Refinancing Bond Net Supply - The report shows the cumulative scale of the difference between refinancing bonds and local bond maturities from January to December from 2020 to 2025, with the statistical scope including both issued and unissued but disclosed bonds [27][28] 3.5 Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of December 7th, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds totaled 200 billion yuan, the sixth - round special refinancing bonds totaled 28.81 billion yuan, and an additional 1.6821 billion yuan was newly disclosed for the next week. The top three provinces or municipalities with separately - planned budgets in the fifth - round second - batch disclosure were Jiangsu (25.11 billion yuan), Hunan (12.88 billion yuan), and Henan (12.27 billion yuan) [6] - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of December 7th, the total disclosed amount of special new special bonds in 2025 was 135.0841 billion yuan, and since 2023, the total disclosed amount was 253.8705 billion yuan. The top three in terms of disclosed scale were Jiangsu (24.4035 billion yuan), Hubei (13.7769 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (13.117 billion yuan). The top three provinces or municipalities with separately - planned budgets in 2025 were Jiangsu (12.89 billion yuan), Guangdong (11.9268 billion yuan), and Yunnan (7.2997 billion yuan) [7] 3.6 Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The report shows the primary and secondary spreads of local bonds on December 7th and November 30th, 2025, including spreads for different maturities (1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 15Y, 20Y, 30Y) and the overall spread [38] - **Regional Secondary Spread**: The report presents the regional secondary spreads of local bonds, but specific data is not detailed in the text [39] 3.7 New Special Bond Investment Directions - The report shows the investment directions of new special bonds, with the statistics for the latest month only considering the investment directions of issued new bonds and not pre - issuance disclosures [40]

2025年12月7号，中国官方公布自己手里的黄金数量为7412万盎司，换算成吨的话是2305吨，这个数字 达到了新高，这些黄金都是实际存在的实物储备，同时中国也在逐步减少美债的持有量，比如在9月份 就减持了5亿美元，英国那边动作更明显，一下子减少了393亿美债，目前还剩下8650亿美元，这些调整 不是临时决定的，而是全球很多央行都在悄悄改变资产配置的方向，大家开始对美元信任度降低了。 年初中国买了253亿美债，算是给了点面子，第二季度特朗普又加关税、卡技术，中国就调整资产结 构，12月公布黄金储备的时间，正好在特朗普访华前两个月，这个时间不是巧合，是特意选的，你谈你 的，我亮我的底牌，各自下自己的棋。 2026年4月，特朗普打算来中国，重点不是谈贸易问题，而是讨论债务怎么分担，还提到"规则共享"这 种虚的说法，他想让中国接受现有的国际秩序，实际上是想把责任推给中国，但特朗普的打算错了，中 国公布黄金储备，意思是不会跟他分蛋糕，而是要自己开个新厨房，这不是对抗，是另起炉灶。 过去美元依赖石油、美债和黄金来维持地位，石油要用美元买，美债大家抢着买，黄金也随着美元走， 现在情况变了，原油交易中越来越多使用人民币或其 ...

周二（12月9日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率涨1.76个基点，报4.1819%，北京时间21:53刷 新日低至4.1410%，随后在23:00发布美国职位空缺（美联储青睐的就业数据）时快速拉升，美国财政部 拍卖10年期美债之后一段时间刷新日高至4.1859%。两年期美债收益率涨3.59个基点，刷新日高至 3.6105%，21:53刷新日低至3.5628%，职位空缺数据发布时快速拉升大约4个基点。20年期美债收益率涨 0.37个基点，30年期美债收益率涨0.30个基点。三年期美债收益率涨3.17个基点，五年期美债收益率涨 2.81个基点，七年期美债收益率涨2.61个基点。02/10年期美债收益率利差跌1.569个基点，报+57.155个 基点。三个月期国库券/10年期美债收益率利差涨0.823个基点，02/30年期美债收益率利差跌2.923个基 点，05/30年期美债收益率利差跌2.607个基点。10年期通胀保值国债（TIPS）收益率涨2.15个基点，至 1.8960%上方；两年期TIPS收益率涨约5.9个基点，至1.1572%；30年期TIPS收益率涨0.47个基点，至 2.5808%。 ...

周二的10年期美债标售以4.175%的高收益率成交，高于去年11月的4.068%，创下8月以来最高水平。 周二美国财政部拍卖390亿美元10年期国债。本次拍卖需求强劲，国外买家购买比例创近四个月新高，但拍卖未能提振债市情绪，10年期美债收益 率维持在近三个月高位。 华尔街见闻提及，周二稍早，美国10月JOLTS职位空缺不降反升至五个月高点，令美联储本周降息决策面临的两难境地更加凸显。 虽然交易员几乎完全消化了美联储本周将降息25个基点的预期，但今年以来美联储两次降息的主要考量是应对就业市场疲软，而最新数据显示劳 动力市场韧性超出预期。 多位美联储官员近期警告称，由于通胀率持续高于央行2%的目标，可能不宜进一步降息。本月以来，市场对明年额外降息的预期已经大幅消退， 推动10年期美债收益率昨日触及4.19%，为9月底以来最高。 标售需求扎实，国外买家增持 债市反弹空间有限，明年宽松预期减弱 （周一10年期美债收益率触及4.19%，为9月底以来最高） 本月美国国债收益率普遍上升，10年期国债收益率周一触及4.19%，为9月下旬以来的最高水平。 DWS America固定收益主管George Catrambone表示 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a downward trend, particularly in the 30-year treasury futures, with the 30-year treasury yield rising over 7 basis points to above 2.25% and the 10-year treasury yield increasing by 0.7 basis points to 1.8480% [1] - The widening gap between the 30-year and 10-year treasury yields is attributed to multiple factors, including expectations of new fund redemption fees, anticipated steady growth policies, and a decrease in monetary easing expectations [1][6] - Institutional profit-taking pressure is significant as the year-end approaches, contributing to the sell-off in the long-end bond market [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is influencing the bond market, with expectations for steady growth impacting market sentiment directly [2] - The central government's emphasis on implementing more proactive macro policies indicates a supportive stance for economic growth, despite the lack of specific targets [4] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and consumption remains a key policy direction, with an emphasis on innovation and technology [4][5] Group 3 - The overall policy framework for the upcoming year is expected to prioritize broad fiscal expansion, with monetary easing complementing fiscal efforts [5] - There is a strong mid-term expectation for economic stabilization, although the necessity for short-term interest rate cuts is limited [5][6] - The bond market sentiment remains under pressure, with the 10-year treasury yield expected to oscillate between 1.85% and 1.9%, while the 30-year treasury yield has limited upward movement potential [6][7] Group 4 - The year-end selling pressure from banks to realize gains on older bonds is likely to constrain the upward movement of the bond market [7] - The overall sentiment in the bond market is weak, with expectations that the 30-year treasury futures will continue to exhibit a weak oscillating pattern [7] - The potential for a reserve requirement ratio cut may enhance the strength of the short-end bond market, leading to a steeper yield curve [7]

英国各期限国债收益率下跌2-3个基点，其中30年期国债收益率下跌3个基点至5.2%；交易员押注英国央 行将在2026年底前降息56个基点。 英国央行官员Mann表示，疲软的就业前景可能会缓解价格担忧，该行的Lombardelli则预计财政大臣里 夫斯的预算将降低通货膨胀0.5个百分点；该行Ramsden暗示倾向于下周降息，并表示他预计利率将稳定 在约3%。 法国长期国债收益率下跌2-3个基点；交易员等待周二晚些时候对社会保障预算的关键投票。 英国央行决策者的评论支持了降息预期，推动英国国债表现略微跑赢。 英国央行决策者的评论支持了降息预期，推动英国国债表现略微跑赢。 英国各期限国债收益率下跌2-3个基点，其中30年期国债收益率下跌3个基点至5.2%；交易员押注英国央 行将在2026年底前降息56个基点。 英国央行官员Mann表示，疲软的就业前景可能会缓解价格担忧，该行的Lombardelli则预计财政大臣里 夫斯的预算将降低通货膨胀0.5个百分点；该行Ramsden暗示倾向于下周降息，并表示他预计利率将稳定 在约3%。 市场： 德国国债收益率下降1个基点至2.85%， 德国国债期货上涨20.00点至127.4 ...

按类型划分，利率债方面，11月成交金额214,422.16亿元，同比、环比分别增长9.81%、13.72%。信用 债方面，11月成交金额73,338.98亿元，同比减少3.40%、环比增加19.23%。 新华财经北京12月9日电 11月，债券二级市场交投氛围显著回暖，成交金额实现同比、环比双增长。产 业债和城投债成交久期呈现分化，产业债偏好1年以下短久期品种，城投债则向3-5年中长期限倾斜，高 等级债券仍是成交主力，市场信用风险偏好稳健。本月信用利差呈 V型震荡，月末收37.34bp，与上月 末基本持平。展望后市，信用利差将低位震荡，进一步收窄或大幅走阔空间有限。 统计数据显示，债券二级市场11月总成交金额340,656.40亿元，实现同比、环比双增长，增幅分别为 2.21%、14.62%。 从成交信用债的特征来看，产业债和城投债交易金额均实现环比增长，市场流动性较前期有所改善。具 体来看，产业债成交金额环比增加16.81%，城投债成交金额环比增加12.74%。交易结构上，本月成交 的产业债和城投债在信用级别上与前期变动不大，高等级债券依旧是市场成交的主力品种，低评级债券 交投热度未出现明显波动，反映出当前市 ...