Group 1: Domestic Trade Data - In October, China's exports (in USD) decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, down from an increase of 8.3% in the previous month, while imports rose by 1.0%, down from 7.4% [3][5] - The trade surplus for October was reported at $90.07 billion, slightly down from $90.447 billion in the previous month [3] - The contribution of major trading partners to export growth showed a decline for the EU, ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea, while the US's contribution increased [5] Group 2: Transportation and Industrial Indicators - The subway passenger volume index in first-tier cities showed a slight recovery, reporting 40.61 million trips, up from 40.55 million [12] - The industrial production index increased to 117 from 113, with specific sectors like methanol and tires showing recovery, while soda ash declined [14] Group 3: Domestic Policy Developments - Premier Li Qiang co-hosted the 30th regular meeting of Chinese and Russian Prime Ministers with Russian Prime Minister Mishustin, emphasizing the deepening of Sino-Russian friendship [16][17] - Li Qiang also met with Georgian Prime Minister Kobakhidze to discuss economic cooperation and the Belt and Road Initiative [17] Group 4: International Monetary Policy Outlook - There is a significant probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025, with a 66.9% chance of this occurring [26] - The current economic conditions and geopolitical tensions are influencing the Fed's potential policy decisions [26] Group 5: Industry Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies are suggested to focus on three main areas: breakthroughs in AI technology, economic recovery leading to a "stronger stronger" market trend, and the resurgence of undervalued sectors [28] - The initial phase of the bull market favors high-growth sectors, while later phases may see a shift towards cyclical stocks with better performance as the economic fundamentals improve [28]

Core Viewpoint - European major stock markets experienced a positive start, with significant gains in indices and rising commodity prices, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [1] Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The German DAX index increased by 0.72% [1] - The French CAC40 index saw a slight rise of 0.09% [1] - The UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.18% [1] - The Russian MOEX index performed notably well with a gain of 1.35% [1] - In the US pre-market, the three major indices collectively rose, with Nasdaq futures up by 1.35% [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Gold prices surpassed the $4000 mark, reaching $4014.59 per ounce [1] - Wheat prices increased to $5.40 per bushel [1] - International oil prices also rose, with US crude at $61.19 per barrel and Brent crude at $65.01 per barrel [1] Group 3: Currency Exchange - The euro appreciated against the US dollar, rising by 0.33% to 1.1527 [1]

Supply and Demand - Construction starts remain at historically low levels, with asphalt plant operating rates at 31.5%, cement dispatch rates at 37.4%, and grinding mill operation rates at 37.2% compared to historical averages[13][14]. - Industrial production is at a historically high level, with PX operating rates at 86.3% and PTA rates at 76.5%[24][25]. - Demand for construction materials is weak, with rebar, wire rod, and building materials at historical lows, and automotive sales showing a decline[32][33]. Price Trends - International commodity prices have rebounded, with crude oil and copper prices increasing, while gold prices have decreased[41][43]. - Domestic industrial prices are experiencing mixed trends, with iron ore and rebar prices rising, while chemical products are showing weakness[44][50]. Real Estate Market - New housing transactions have seen a year-on-year decline, with a 21% increase in transaction area compared to the previous two weeks, but still down 34% and 33% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[64][66]. - Second-hand housing transactions remain weak, with year-on-year declines of 24%, 16%, and 31% in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen respectively[68][69]. Export Performance - October exports are projected to show a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.9%, with port throughput up 8.9% compared to 2024[71][72]. Liquidity Conditions - Recent weeks have seen an upward trend in funding rates, with R007 at 1.49% and DR007 at 1.46% as of October 31[76][78].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the concept of living in a deflationary country while investing in inflationary assets, highlighting the potential benefits of such a strategy [4][6][8] - The article emphasizes the importance of finding inflationary assets that can maintain or increase value in an inflationary environment, categorizing them into seven types [17][31] - It provides examples of successful cases, such as Swiss and Japanese high-net-worth individuals who have effectively invested overseas while residing in low-inflation environments [10][12][14] Group 2 - The article outlines three conditions necessary for effective cross-border asset allocation: the ability to allocate assets internationally, living in a stable or deflationary country without compromising quality of life, and ensuring investment targets are decoupled from the local deflation [10] - It identifies seven categories of inflationary assets, including precious metals, commodities, high pricing power stocks, emerging market stocks, inflation-linked bonds, rental real estate, and technology stocks in deflationary environments [17][18][20][22][24][26][28][29] - The article concludes that understanding inflation is crucial for making informed investment decisions, as it serves as a fundamental principle that can clarify various investment phenomena [32][34][35]

Group 1 - Global capital is hesitant, indicating a "noise" before a major market rebound, with A-shares returning to a defensive style focused on dividends and micro-cap stocks [1][10] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has shifted its strategic focus from "technological innovation" to "supply chain enhancement," ensuring supply chain security and high-end manufacturing autonomy [2][18] - The emphasis on domestic consumption has upgraded from "comprehensive promotion of consumption" to "strongly boosting consumption," reflecting a stronger policy commitment [2][18] Group 2 - Cross-border capital is significantly returning, which is a crucial material guarantee for the "15th Five-Year Plan" strategy and the macro engine for China's asset revival [3][20] - The return of cross-border capital is expected to fundamentally improve cash flow for enterprises and households, providing a material basis for boosting consumption and supporting manufacturing [3][20] Group 3 - China is adopting a steady path, focusing on solidifying competitive advantages through capital expenditure expansion and policy adjustments, while the U.S. faces challenges due to premature and excessive investment in AI infrastructure [4][23] - The U.S. is experiencing a "Ponzi-like" dilemma, where high unit costs of AI infrastructure hinder commercialization, potentially leading to a significant economic crisis [4][23] Group 4 - The report suggests a strategic layout for the "golden era" of Chinese assets, emphasizing a combination of sectors that are expected to reach new highs, including non-ferrous metals, new consumption, and high-end manufacturing [5][26] - The anticipated "ice-fire conversion" moment for manufacturing and consumption assets is supported by the return of cross-border capital and the strategic shift in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [5][26]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant downturn after a period of record highs, with gold and silver prices plummeting to their largest daily declines in years, raising concerns among investors about future price movements [1][4][7]. Price Movements - Gold reached a historical intraday high before falling approximately 6.3% to around $4,082, marking its largest daily drop since April 2013, with a closing price of $4,130.41 per ounce [1]. - Silver also saw a dramatic decline, dropping nearly 8.7% to below $47.90, the largest intraday drop since February 2021, with a closing price of $48.7050 per ounce [4]. Market Influences - Multiple factors contributed to the pressure on precious metal prices, including expectations of easing trade tensions, a strengthening dollar, and overbought technical indicators, which diminished the safe-haven demand for these metals [7][10]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a lack of critical positioning data, increasing uncertainty in the market and potentially allowing speculative long positions to accumulate excessively [10][12]. Technical Analysis - The relative strength index for gold indicated that prices had entered an overbought territory, prompting concerns about potential corrections and profit-taking among traders [8][11]. - Analysts noted that the absence of significant media catalysts on the day of the price drop suggested that the market was due for a correction due to extreme overbought conditions [11][12]. Investor Sentiment - Despite the sharp declines, some analysts believe that the fundamental factors supporting precious metals have not changed, and potential buying interest may limit the extent of any corrections [7][13]. - The recent lack of significant physical demand from India and the absence of key buyers in the Shanghai Gold Exchange were highlighted as notable factors contributing to the market's weakness [12][16]. Future Outlook - Analysts from various firms expressed differing views on the future of gold and silver prices, with some maintaining a bullish outlook while acknowledging the potential for a consolidation phase [10][13]. - The global largest gold ETF, GLD, saw unprecedented trading volumes, indicating heightened interest and activity in the market despite the recent downturn [14].

Core Viewpoint - Recent sharp sell-off in gold and silver prices is attributed to investor concerns over high valuations following a historic price surge, leading to profit-taking [1][4] Group 1: Price Movements - Spot gold prices fell over 6.3%, marking the largest single-day drop in over a decade, while spot silver dropped by 8.7% [1] - The recent decline ended a bullish trend for both metals, which had reached historical highs just a week prior [1] - The surge in gold prices was driven by expectations of significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a shift away from sovereign debt due to concerns over budget deficits [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Strong technical indicators contributed to the gold price correction, with support expected in the $4,000 to $4,050 range [3] - The influx of $8 billion into physical gold ETFs last week was the largest weekly inflow recorded since 2018, driven by concerns over U.S. economic credit quality [4] - The strong U.S. dollar has diminished the appeal of precious metals, coinciding with reduced market liquidity due to India's Diwali holiday [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the long-term factors supporting gold prices, such as central bank purchases, remain intact, with predictions of gold prices reaching around $4,500 per ounce next year [5] - The current speculative long positions in gold and silver may have accumulated, making them more susceptible to corrections [5] - Market volatility during upward trends is seen as a normal occurrence, and analysts maintain a positive outlook on the gold market fundamentals [5]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant downturn after a period of record highs, with gold and silver facing their largest daily declines in years, driven by multiple factors including a strong dollar and reduced safe-haven demand [1][4][7]. Price Movements - Gold prices fell approximately 6.3% to around $4082, marking the largest daily drop since April 2013, while New York futures dropped to $4093, down 6.1% [1]. - Silver prices dropped nearly 8.7% to below $47.90, the largest intraday decline since February 2021, with New York futures falling to $47.12, down about 8.3% [4]. Market Pressures - The decline in precious metals was influenced by expectations of easing trade tensions, a strengthening dollar, overbought technical indicators, and opaque investor positions, which collectively ended the previous upward trend [7]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has resulted in a lack of critical positioning data, increasing uncertainty in the market [8]. Speculative Positions - Analysts noted that speculative long positions in gold and silver may have accumulated significantly, making them more susceptible to corrections [9]. - The absence of weekly positioning reports from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) due to the government shutdown has allowed speculators to build large one-sided positions [8][9]. Analyst Perspectives - Some analysts believe that despite the sharp declines, the fundamental factors supporting precious metals remain intact, suggesting potential buying interest may limit further corrections [7][10]. - There is a divergence in analyst opinions, with some indicating that the recent price drop may not be detrimental, while others caution that momentum could eventually fade, leading to increased selling pressure if U.S. economic data exceeds expectations [10]. Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market, which has surged nearly 80% this year, is also experiencing significant declines, influenced by macroeconomic factors and historical market tightness [11]. - Recent data indicated the largest single-day outflow of silver from warehouses associated with the Shanghai Futures Exchange since February, alongside a decrease in New York inventories [12].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant drop due to Trump's tariff threats, with major indices hitting a one-month low and the Dow facing its first five-day losing streak in two months [1] - Nearly 40% of the U.S. stock market's value is concentrated in 10 large-cap stocks, primarily in the AI sector, which carries high expectations for growth [7] - The overall valuation of the U.S. stock market is currently overvalued by 3% compared to fair value, a situation that has occurred only about 15% of the time since 2010 [4] Group 2 - The growth momentum driven by AI and related investments is providing new support for the U.S. economy, while expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by year-end may mitigate macroeconomic headwinds [11] - Economic pressures such as slowing consumer spending, weak new home construction, and diminishing fiscal stimulus effects pose challenges for the U.S. economy in the coming months [11] - Historical data indicates that commodities typically rise by an average of 3% in the nine months following the first interest rate cut, with specific patterns observed in commodity price movements [12][13] Group 3 - The performance of commodities during interest rate cut cycles varies significantly based on the economic context, with strong returns in healthy economic conditions and declines during recessionary periods [15] - Energy and precious metals tend to perform well during rate cut cycles, with average increases of 10% and 7% respectively, while industrial metals lag behind with an average decline of 4% [15] - The current state of the U.S. stock market suggests that if it weakens, there may be a surge in profit-taking, while commodities could present more certain investment opportunities under the backdrop of rate cuts [15]

- The report introduces the "SSE STAR Market Innovation Growth Strategy Select Index," which focuses on selecting 80 listed companies with strong technological innovation and growth capabilities from various industries on the STAR Market[13][14] - The index incorporates traditional factors such as market capitalization and fundamentals, as well as innovative factors like R&D capability and profitability, and integrates the SPDB's Sci-Tech Evaluation System, which scores companies based on "technological innovation, team innovation, and equity innovation"[14] - The index aims to highlight companies with both "innovation strength" and "growth quality," reflecting the overall performance of listed companies on the STAR Market that possess these characteristics[13][14]