1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out the supply - demand situations, price trends, and investment strategies for each sector. For instance, in the financial derivatives sector, A - share markets are expected to be volatile, and investors are advised to control risks; in the commodity futures sector, different commodities face different supply - demand pressures and price trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed accordingly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Alumina**: The market is in a surplus situation with supply increasing and demand weakening. The price lacks upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Seasonal inventory accumulation is expected, and the price in January is under pressure. Strategies such as EG5 - 9 anti - arbitrage are recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is strong before the Spring Festival, but the futures price has over - anticipated the increase. After the festival, the market is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Driven by export growth, it attempts to break through resistance levels. Domestically, it may try to break through 8750 yuan and may briefly reach 9000 yuan [5]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts boost safe - haven demand, and the price is expected to be strong in the long - term. Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average [6]. 3.2 Financial Futures 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: A - share major indices declined, and the four major stock index futures contracts also fell. The market is divided, and small and medium - sized indices corrected [7][8]. - **News**: The government will implement more active fiscal and monetary policies to promote economic growth and price recovery [8]. - **Funding**: Trading volume increased slightly, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal. - **Operation Suggestion**: Control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [9]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures rose, and bond yields generally declined [10][11]. - **Funding**: The central bank had a net capital withdrawal, and the inter - bank market liquidity was generally stable [11]. - **Policy**: The fiscal policy in 2026 will be more active to support economic stability [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market may fluctuate in the short - term. Adopt range - bound operations and pay attention to basis - widening strategies [12]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Geopolitical and trade conflicts led to the selling of US and Japanese bonds, a decline in the US dollar and US stocks, and the precious metals market remained strong [13][14][15]. - **Outlook**: Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term due to geopolitical and trade risks. Silver is expected to have a rising price center, and platinum and palladium will follow gold with narrowed fluctuations [15][16]. 3.4 Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [17]. - **Fundamentals**: Container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [17]. - **Logic**: The futures price is under pressure from the downward trend of spot prices [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expect short - term fluctuations [17]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - **Spot**: The spot discount widened, and the inventory continued to accumulate [18][21]. - **Macro**: The US is promoting negotiations on key minerals, which affects the tariff expectations for copper [19][22]. - **Supply**: The copper concentrate TC decreased, and the electrolytic copper production showed different trends in December and is expected to decline slightly in January [19]. - **Demand**: The downstream copper processing industry's operating rate was low, and the terminal demand was weak [20]. - **Logic**: The copper price may return to fundamental pricing, and attention should be paid to the CL premium and LME inventory changes [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe, and enter long positions after adjustment. Pay attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [23]. 3.5.2 Alumina - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the inventory increased weekly by 7.9 tons [23][24]. - **Supply**: The production may decrease slightly in January due to some enterprises' losses [24]. - **Logic**: The market is in surplus, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [25]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short at high prices within the range of 2600 - 2900 [25]. 3.5.3 Aluminum - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was cold [25]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase slightly, and the aluminum - water ratio may continue to decline [26]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate was low, and the demand was weak [26]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton in the short - term [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Do not chase high prices. Enter long positions after a pullback within the range of 23000 - 25000 [29]. 3.5.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the market maintained rigid demand [29]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline slightly in January due to raw material shortages [29][30]. - **Demand**: The demand is in a mild recovery, but the terminal demand transmission is not smooth [30]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton in the short - term [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Long AD03 and short AL03 for arbitrage within the range of 22000 - 24000 [31]. 3.5.5 Zinc - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was general [32]. - **Supply**: The zinc ore supply is tight, and the refined zinc production decreased in December [33]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate declined, and the demand was weak [34]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes [35][36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the support at 23800, and hold long positions in the long - term. Hold cross - market anti - arbitrage [36]. 3.5.6 Tin - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was general [36]. - **Supply**: The tin ore and tin ingot import and export showed different trends in December [37]. - **Demand**: The downstream tin - soldering industry's operating rate declined, and the terminal demand was divided [38]. - **Logic**: The price is affected by market sentiment and is expected to be volatile. Consider low - buying after the sentiment stabilizes [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe [39]. 3.5.7 Nickel - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was weak [39]. - **Supply**: The refined nickel production increased, and the market supply was sufficient [40]. - **Demand**: The demand in different sectors showed different trends, and the stainless - steel demand was general [40]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 138000 - 148000 [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations [42]. 3.5.8 Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The spot price was stable, and the basis declined [43]. - **Raw Materials**: The prices of nickel ore and ferronickel increased, and the price of ferrochrome was firm [43]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase in January, and the supply is relatively loose [44]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 13800 - 14600, and attention should be paid to the ore news and downstream inventory [45]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Operate within the range of 13800 - 14600 [46]. 3.5.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the market sentiment was boosted [46][47]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January due to pre - holiday maintenance [47]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to be optimistic, but the 1 - month demand may decline [48]. - **Logic**: The futures price increased sharply due to supply - side speculation. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [49]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term, and enter long positions at low prices in the medium - term [50]. 3.5.10 Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price increased slightly [50]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and the first quarter of 2026 [50]. - **Demand**: The demand may be improved by export demand, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased [51]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be supported at 48000 yuan/ton. Wait and observe and consider hedging [52]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at high - level fluctuations [52]. 3.5.11 Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price was stable [53]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and February [53]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to decline in January, and attention should be paid to the polysilicon production [53]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [55]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at low - level fluctuations and pay attention to the production cut [55]. 3.6 Ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Steel - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the basis of rebar strengthened [56]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost decreased, and the profit increased. The profit order is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar [56]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline seasonally [56][57]. - **Demand**: The demand declined seasonally, and the post - holiday demand elasticity is limited [57]. - **Logic**: The steel price may decline due to cost reduction. The rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges [57]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Exit long positions on the steel - ore ratio at high prices and hold long positions on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [57]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - **Spot**: The spot price declined [58]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory increased [58][59]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand was weak, and the iron - making production declined [58]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking [59]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations within the range of 770 - 830 [60]. 3.6.3 Coking Coal - **Spot**: The Shanxi coal price increased more than it decreased, and the Mongolian coal price declined [61][63]. - **Supply**: The coal mine production increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly [63]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand for replenishment increased, and the coking plant's profit declined [63]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [63]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1000 - 1150 [63]. 3.6.4 Coke - **Spot**: The mainstream coke enterprises started to raise prices, and the port price declined [64][65]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the coking plant's profit was under pressure [64][65]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand increased, and the iron - making production increased [65]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1600 - 1750 [65]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1600 - 1750 [65]. 3.6.5 Ferrosilicon - **Spot**: The spot price was stable [66]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost was stable, and the profit was negative [66]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [66][67]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry and non - steel industries declined [67]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5300 - 5800, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [67]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5300 - 5800 [67]. 3.6.6 Manganese Silicon - **Spot**: The spot price declined slightly [69]. - **Cost**: The cost was relatively high, and the profit was negative [69]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [70][71]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry declined, and the inventory was high [71]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5600 - 6000, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [71]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5600 - 6000 [71]. 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 Meal - **Spot Market**: The soybean meal price was stable, and the rapeseed meal price increased [72]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazilian soybean production and export are affected by weather and other factors [73]. - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean and soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate around 2700 [74]. 3.7.2 Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price declined slightly [75]. - **Market Data**: The breeding profit improved, and the slaughter weight increased [75]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a game between supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [76]. 3.7.3 Corn - **Spot Price**: The price was stable in most areas [77]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased [78]. - **Outlook**: The price is supported by supply shortage and pre - holiday demand but limited by policy supply. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [79]. 3.7.4 Sugar - **Analysis**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. The price is expected to be weak [80]. - **Fundamentals**: The Indian sugar production increased, and the Brazilian sugar production decreased [80]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term [80]. 3.7.5 Cotton - **Analysis**: The ICE cotton price is under pressure, and the domestic cotton supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be adjusted [82]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton inspection progress is behind, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is increasing [82]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to continue to be adjusted [82]. 3.7.6 Eggs - **Spot Market**: The price was stable in most areas, and the supply and demand were balanced [84]. - **Supply**: The inventory of laying hens is stable, and the inventory pressure is relieved [84]. - **Demand**: The trader's purchasing is cautious, and the inventory has increased [84]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [84]. 3.7.7 Oils - **Analysis**: The palm oil price is boosted by exports, and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices are affected by multiple factors. The prices are expected to fluctuate [85][87][88]. - **Fundamentals**: The Malaysian palm oil export and reference price change, and the US soybean oil supply is sufficient [86][88]. - **Outlook**: The palm oil may break through resistance levels, and the

Report Information - Report Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The trends of the three major oils are diverging. Due to the easing of China - Canada trade relations, the supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the far - month is expected to increase, causing the prices of Zhengzhou rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal to fall. The expected release of the US biofuel blending quota has boosted the prices of soybean oil and palm oil. For palm oil, attention should be paid to the upcoming export data for the first 20 days of January. In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - P2605: The previous settlement price was 8618, the opening price was 8660, the highest price was 8684, the lowest price was 8606, the closing price was 8648, with a rise of 30 and a rise rate of 0.35%. The trading volume was 358548, and the open interest was 413122, a decrease of 1951 [7] - P2609: The previous settlement price was 8608, the opening price was 8632, the highest price was 8662, the lowest price was 8592, the closing price was 8622, with a rise of 14 and a rise rate of 0.16%. The trading volume was 19126, and the open interest was 66014, a decrease of 40 [7] - Y2605: The previous settlement price was 7978, the opening price was 8014, the highest price was 8024, the lowest price was 7964, the closing price was 7996, with a rise of 18 and a rise rate of 0.23%. The trading volume was 209449, and the open interest was 716725, an increase of 584 [7] - Y2609: The previous settlement price was 7852, the opening price was 7866, the highest price was 7902, the lowest price was 7842, the closing price was 7876, with a rise of 24 and a rise rate of 0.31%. The trading volume was 22233, and the open interest was 107080, an increase of 3032 [7] - OI605: The previous settlement price was 9038, the opening price was 8861, the highest price was 8978, the lowest price was 8860, the closing price was 8902, with a fall of 136 and a fall rate of 1.50%. The trading volume was 367634, and the open interest was 253596, a decrease of 16032 [7] - OI609: The previous settlement price was 9004, the opening price was 8833, the highest price was 8947, the lowest price was 8827, the closing price was 8923, with a fall of 81 and a fall rate of 0.90%. The trading volume was 13371, and the open interest was 12649, an increase of 2915 [7] - **Spot Quotations**: - East China rapeseed oil traders' quotations: For East China March - transferred triple - pressed rapeseed oil, it is 05 + 720. For genetically - modified first - grade rapeseed oil in the East China spot market, it is 05 + 1300, and triple - pressed rapeseed oil is 05 + 650 from March to May in East China, 05 + 600 from April to May in East China [7] - East China market first - grade soybean oil basis price: For first - grade soybean oil, the spot price is Y05 + 520; from February to March it is Y2605+480; from February to May it is Y2605+400; from March to May it is Y2605+360; from April to May it is Y2605+300; from May to July it is Y2605+240; from June to September it is Y2605+190; from July to September it is Y2605+200. For third - grade soybean oil, it is 05 + 450, and for degummed soybean oil, it is 05 + 350 [7] - Dongguan traders' palm oil quotations: For 18 - degree palm oil from Guangzhou Yihai, it is 05 + 170; for 24 - degree palm oil from various factories in Dongguan, it is 05 + 0; for national - standard 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong, it is 05 + 50; for 52 - degree palm oil from various factories in Dongguan, it is 05 - 200; for 33 - degree palm oil from various factories in Dongguan, it is 05 + 20 [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to the purchase of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal, the release of the US biofuel blending quota, and the January 1 - 20 palm oil export data. Adopt the arbitrage strategy of going long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [8] 3.2 Industry News - From January 1 - 15, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 18.42% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 18.09% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.03% month - on - month. The palm oil export volume from January 1 - 15 was 435,882 tons, the same as that from December 1 - 15. The export volume to China was 17,000 tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons compared to 58,000 tons in the same period last month [10][11] 3.3 Data Overview - **Brazilian Soybean Production Forecast**: Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach 179.28 million tons, 520,000 tons higher than the November forecast. If the prediction comes true, it will increase by 4.3% year - on - year and set a new record. The soybean planting area is expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year to 48.33 million hectares, and the average yield per unit area will be 3,728 kg per hectare, a 2.8% increase compared to the 2024/25 season [16] - **Domestic Palm Oil Inventory**: As of the end of the third week of 2026, the total domestic palm oil inventory was 677,600 tons, an increase of 16,400 tons compared to last week; the contract volume was 39,200 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons compared to last week. The inventory of 24 - degree and below palm oil was 653,800 tons, an increase of 16,400 tons compared to last week, and the high - grade palm oil inventory was 23,800 tons, the same as last week [16]

Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Index (Long-term bullish, short-term shock adjustment), Treasury bonds (Shock), Copper (Shock), Aluminum (Shock), Alumina (Shock), Zinc (Shock), Nickel (High-level shock), Stainless steel (High-level shock), Tin (Potential for increase), Precious metals (High-level wide-range shock), Industrial silicon and polysilicon (Bearish), Lithium carbonate (No clear rating), Rebar (Shock), Iron ore (Shock), Coke (Shock), Coking coal (Bullish), Anthracite (Bullish), Palm oil (Shock), Soybean oil (Bullish), Rapeseed oil (Bearish), Cotton (Shock), Sugar (Bearish), Corn (Shock), Soybeans (Bearish), Pulp (Shock), Logs (Shock), Live pigs (Shock), Fuel oil (Shock), Bitumen (Shock), BR rubber (Bullish), PTA (Shock), Ethylene glycol (Shock), Styrene (Bearish), Urea (Shock), PF (Shock), PVC (Shock), LPG (Bullish), Container shipping European line (Shock) [1] Core Views - The policy aims for a "slow bull" in the stock index rather than suppressing the market. The short-term shock adjustment space is expected to be limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout. Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels. The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The prices of precious metals are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are bearish. The prices of black metals are affected by weak reality and strong expectations. The prices of agricultural products are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather. The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and cost support [1] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - Index: The stock index rose strongly in the first half of the week and then adjusted with policy regulation. The short-term shock adjustment space is limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Pay attention to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels [1] - Aluminum: The recent industrial drive is limited, and the macro sentiment has weakened, causing aluminum prices to fall from high levels [1] - Alumina: The alumina production capacity still has a large release space, and the industrial side weakens the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1] - Zinc: The cost center of the zinc fundamentals is stable, but the inventory pressure is obvious. The current price has insufficient fundamental support, and the zinc price fluctuates in a range under the repeated macro sentiment [1] - Nickel: The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The short-term nickel price fluctuates at a high level and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy changes in Indonesia, the macro sentiment, and the futures positions [1] - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel iron continues to rise, the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly, and the steel mill's production schedule in January increases. Pay attention to the actual production situation of the steel mill. The stainless steel futures fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term [1] - Tin: The short-term macro sentiment is repeated, and the tin price has corrected. However, the supply vulnerability of tin ore still exists, and it still has the driving force to rise. Pay attention to the opportunity of low absorption [1] - Precious metals: The geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the rise of precious metal prices has slowed down. The silver price has fallen under pressure. The short-term gold and silver prices are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. In the long term, it is recommended to allocate platinum at low levels or choose the arbitrage strategy of [long platinum, short palladium] [1] Black Metals - Rebar: The expectation is strong, but the spot is weak, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The continuous rise kinetic energy is insufficient. Unilaterally long orders should leave the market and wait and see; participate in the positive arbitrage position in the spot and futures [1] - Iron ore: The sector rotates, but the upper pressure of iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long at this position. The weak reality and strong expectation are intertwined. The actual supply and demand continue to be weak, and the energy consumption double control and anti-involution may disturb the supply [1] - Coke: The short-term market sentiment warms up, and the supply and demand are supported, but the medium-term supply and demand continue to be surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - Coking coal: If the expectation of "capacity reduction" continues to ferment and the spot replenishes the inventory before the Spring Festival, coking coal may still have room to rise, but the actual rise space is difficult to judge, and the volatility increases after a large rise. It is necessary to be cautious [1] - Anthracite: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural Products - Cotton: The domestic new crop production expectation is strong, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream start-up maintains a low level, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "supported but no driving force." Pay attention to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document on direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, the weather during the planting period, and the peak season demand from March to April [1] - Sugar: The global sugar is in surplus, and the domestic new crop supply increases. The short consensus is relatively consistent. If the disk continues to fall, the lower cost support is strong, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Pay attention to the changes in the capital side [1] - Corn: The grain sales progress of Northeast corn is relatively fast, the port inventory is low, and the middle and lower reaches have a certain replenishment demand before the festival. The short-term spot is still relatively strong, and the disk is expected to fluctuate in a range [1] - Soybeans: With the progress of the Brazilian harvest, the Brazilian CNF premium is expected to reflect the selling pressure of the soybean harvest. Coupled with the pressure on the rapeseed sector from the Sino-Canadian easing, the MO5 is expected to be under pressure, and the MO5 - M09 is expected to be in a reverse arbitrage [1] - Pulp: The pulp fell today due to the decline of the commodity macro. The overall did not break through the shock range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has recently shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding. It is expected that the further decline space of the futures price is limited. However, the external quotation in January still shows a slight decline, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack driving factors for rising. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] - Live pigs: The spot and futures of live pigs gradually stabilize. The demand support and the unsold slaughter weight, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Products - Fuel oil: OPEC+ suspends production increase until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement affects. The US sanctions the Venezuelan crude oil export. The short-term supply and demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five-Year Plan rush work is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The asphalt profit is high [1] - Bitumen: The raw material cost support is strong. The spot-futures price difference rebounds greatly. The intermediate inventory increases [1] - BR rubber: The disk position decreases, and the new warehouse receipts increase. The BR increase slows down periodically. The spot leads the rise to repair the basis, and the BR continues to pay attention to the upward driving force above 12,000. The BD/BR listing price continues to be raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber narrows. The overseas cracking device capacity is cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The naphtha tax also has a positive support for the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high operation and high inventory, and the transaction center is average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber [1] - PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, and this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The PX fundamentals are indeed supported, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. The domestic PTA maintains high operation. The gasoline price difference is still at a high level, which supports the aromatics [1] - Ethylene glycol: The market spreads the news that two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, with a total annual production capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline due to the stimulation of supply-side news. The current polyester downstream start-up rate maintains above 90%, and the demand performance slightly exceeds expectations [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. The suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while the buyers insist on pressing prices due to the weak downstream polymer demand and profit compression. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a bullish sentiment due to the export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward driving force needs to pay attention to the drive of the overseas market [1] - Urea: The export sentiment eases slightly, and the domestic demand is insufficient. The upper space is limited. The lower has the support of anti-involution and the cost side [1] - PF: The geopolitical conflict intensifies, and the crude oil has a rising risk. The maintenance decreases, and the operation load is at a high level. The long-distance arrival increases the supply. The downstream demand operation weakens. The price returns to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: There is less global production in 2026, and the future expectation is optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate is cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing to export later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the PVC production capacity to be cleared [1] - LPG: The January CP rises unexpectedly, and the cost support of imported gas is strong. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East escalates, and the short-term risk premium rises. The EIA weekly C3 inventory accumulation trend slows down, and it is expected to gradually turn to destocking. The domestic port inventory also decreases [1] - Container shipping European line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. The airlines are still cautious in their tentative re-navigation. The pre-festival replenishment demand still exists [1]

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical risks are increasing, leading to new highs in precious metals spot prices, with gold surpassing $4650 per ounce and silver rising above $92 per ounce [1] Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing increased volatility, supported by a macroeconomic environment of easing inflation pressures and a weak job market in the U.S. The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve strengthens the case for precious metals [4][20] - Gold's long-term upward trend is expected to continue due to factors such as weakened dollar credibility and central bank purchases [4][20] - Silver and platinum are also supported by supply-demand gaps, with silver facing tight supply and robust industrial demand, while platinum's demand is driven by hybrid vehicle catalysts and hydrogen energy [4][20] Group 2: Oil and Energy - Oil prices increased by 1.48% in the night session, with geopolitical risk premiums decreasing as Trump adopts a wait-and-see approach regarding Iran [2][14] - OPEC reports indicate that global demand for oil from member countries will remain stable at 43 million barrels per day in 2026, with an increase of 600,000 barrels per day expected by 2027 [2][15] Group 3: Agricultural Products - The Malaysian palm oil production for December was reported at 1,829,761 tons, a decrease of 5.46% month-on-month, while exports increased by 8.52% [3][29] - The U.S. government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quotas by early March, which is expected to support oilseed prices [3][29] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that Trump's policies are attracting trillions of dollars in investments into the U.S. [7] - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points, effective January 19 [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Facing pressure from high inventory, slow - down in export growth, and policy changes, it may weaken further after potentially breaking through the 4000 - ringgit support. Domestic palm oil may also fall below 8500 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil may oscillate narrowly. In the domestic market, although it is in the Spring Festival stocking season, the supply of soybeans and soybean oil is sufficient, and the spot basis quotation will have limited short - term fluctuations [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by macro - sentiment and international oil price drops, as well as news from Canada, the rapeseed oil futures market is under pressure [1]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are affected by the strong US dollar and demand concerns but supported by a strong export sales report. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. Zhengzhou cotton may face short - term adjustments, but the overall bullish trend remains [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures continue to decline due to increased sugar production in India and sufficient supply. The domestic sugar market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [3]. Red Dates - With sufficient supply and weak demand in the 2025/26 production season, the futures price of red dates is running weakly [4]. Apples - In the short - term, the price in the production area is weakly stable, and the market activity in the sales area has declined. In the long - term, high prices may suppress consumption, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak [7][12]. Corn and Corn Starch - The corn price in the Northeast is strong, and in North China, it oscillates narrowly. The demand side has different inventory situations. In the short - term, the corn price is supported by supply tightness and pre - holiday stocking, but the increase is limited by policy auctions [16][17]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is back in an oscillatory pattern. The overall supply in January is expected to be sufficient. The basis is strong, but there is no obvious fundamental positive. It is recommended to short at high levels after the price stabilizes [18]. Meal - USDA's report has a short - term negative impact on the market, but the decline space of CBOT is limited. The domestic meal market is in a loose situation, but the low - level arrival expectation in the first quarter limits the downward space. The market will oscillate in the short - term [21]. Eggs - The egg market is in a situation of overall supply exceeding demand. The pre - holiday stocking drives up demand, but the price may experience short - term digestion pressure and a slight correction. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [25]. Summaries by Catalog Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On January 15, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all declined. The decline rates of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures were - 0.78%, - 1.94%, and - 1.35% respectively [1]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory and warehouse receipts of palm oil decreased, and the inventory of soybean oil and rapeseed oil also showed certain changes [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of cotton 2605 and 2609 decreased, and the ICE cotton price increased slightly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased significantly [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of cotton in Xinjiang and the CC Index increased slightly [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory of Xinjiang cotton is rising, and the export sales of US cotton are strong [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 decreased, and the ICE raw sugar price also declined [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning remained unchanged, and the price in Kunming decreased slightly [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The sugar production in India increased, and the domestic sugar production, sales, and inventory showed different trends [3]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of red dates 2605, 2607, and 2609 all decreased [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of red dates in Cangzhou remained unchanged [4]. Apples - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of apple 2605 and 2610 decreased, and the 5 - 10 spread decreased [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in the main production areas were weakly stable [12]. - **Market Activity**: The arrival volume in the wholesale market increased slightly, and the inventory in the cold storage decreased [7]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn in the Northeast is strong, and in North China, it oscillates narrowly. The demand side has different inventory situations [16]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch increased slightly, and the basis decreased [16]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of pig 2605 and 2603 decreased, and the 3 - 5 spread decreased [18]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [18]. - **Industry Situation**: The slaughter volume decreased slightly, and the prices of piglets and sows increased slightly [18]. Meal - **Price Changes**: On January 16, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures decreased slightly [21]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybean meal increased, and those of rapeseed meal remained unchanged [21]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads and ratios such as the oil - meal ratio and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread changed slightly [21]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of egg 03 and 04 increased, and the 3 - 4 spread increased [25]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of egg - related products such as egg - laying chicken seedlings and culled chickens increased [25]. - **Industry Situation**: The egg market is in a situation of supply exceeding demand, but the pre - holiday stocking drives up demand [25].

Report Overview - Report Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Report Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The three major oils have collectively corrected, mainly dragged down by the decline in the external crude oil market. Due to the bearish USDA monthly supply and demand report, the oversupply of US soybeans, the increase in Brazilian soybean production, and sufficient global soybean supply, combined with soybean auctions, the Y2605 contract is under significant pressure near the integer mark of 8000 and recent highs. The main contract Y2605 is expected to trade in the range of 7850 - 8150 in the first quarter. [8] - Palm oil prices are under pressure due to rising Malaysian palm oil inventories and the delay in Indonesia's shift from B40 to B50 in 2026. Attention should be paid to whether Indian demand can recover. If export improvement fails to meet market expectations, a second bottoming is expected. [8] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney visited China on January 14, and the market expects the China - Canada trade relationship to ease. China may gradually cancel the 100% punitive tariff on Canadian canola oil. This week, canola oil prices have continued to bottom out under the guidance of policy expectations. Attention should be paid to whether there are official signals of tariff adjustment. [8] - In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on canola oil. Oils are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, with pressure on the upside and support on the downside. Current prices face correction pressure. [8] 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - East China third - grade canola oil: 05 + 800 in February; 05 + 650 from February to May; 05 + 600 from April to May. Dongguan canola oil quote: 05 + 1200 for third - grade canola oil from January to February. [7] - East China market first - grade soybean oil basis price: For first - grade soybean oil, spot is Y05 + 520; 05 + 500 from January to March; 05 + 480 from February to March; 05 + 380 from February to May; 05 + 360 from March to May; 05 + 300 from April to May; 05 + 240 from May to July; 05 + 210 from June to September; 05 + 200 from July to September; third - grade soybean oil is 05 + 450; degummed soybean oil is 05 + 320. [7] - Dongguan traders' palm oil quotes are stable: 05 - 20 for 24 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories; 05 + 40 for Guangdong national standard 24 - degree palm oil; 05 - 200 for 52 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories. [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: - For futures trading, pay attention to the price range of Y2605 (7850 - 8150 in Q1). Monitor the recovery of Indian palm oil demand and official signals of canola oil tariff adjustment. [8] - For arbitrage, adopt the strategy of going long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on canola oil. [8] 3.2 Industry News - Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 15 were 727,440 tons, a 18.6% increase compared to 613,172 tons from December 1 - 15. [9] - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 will be 3.73 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 2.4 million tons. If the estimate comes true, it will be a 233% increase compared to 1.12 million tons in the same period last year, setting a record high for the same period. ANEC's head said on January 7 that Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will reach a record 112 million tons. [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China third - grade canola oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and canola oil, and price spreads such as P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1, and exchange rates like the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the US dollar against the Malaysian ringgit. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [13][16][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short-term, the overall trend of oils and fats is oscillating with increased volatility. Palm oil can be considered for high-selling and low-buying operations, and holders of short positions can consider partial profit-taking and partial holding. Soybean oil lacks a driving force and may follow the overall fluctuation of oils and fats. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on the 2605 contract were 7938 (down 62), 8578 (down 170), and 8828 (down 121) respectively. The spot basis and its changes varied by region and variety [2] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 5 - 9 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 134 (down 4), 14 (down 52), and 14 (down 5) respectively [2] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 05 - contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were - 640 (up 108), 890, and 250 (up 49) respectively, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.90 (down 0.01) [2] - **Import Profits**: The import profit data of 24 - degree palm oil and crude rapeseed oil showed "N/A" [2] - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the second week of 2026, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 72.7, 73.6, and 25.1 million tons respectively, with corresponding changes compared to last week and the same period last year [2] Part 2: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: Malaysia set the reference price of crude palm oil for February at 3846.84 ringgit per ton, with an export tariff rate of 9.0%. From January 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 727,440 tons, a 18.64% increase from the same period last month [4] - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: As of January 9, 2026, the national commercial inventory of palm oil was 73.6 million tons, a 0.30% increase from last week. The origin's quotation was stable, and the import profit inversion narrowed. There were rumors of 4 near - month purchase vessels. In the short term, the market lacked a clear driving force, and the high inventory was expected to maintain a slow destocking speed [4] - **Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 176.58 million tons, with an operating rate of 48.58%. As of January 9, 2026, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 102.51 million tons, a 5.17% decrease from last week. The downstream demand was lackluster, and the inventory was expected to decline slightly in the future, but the supply was still sufficient [4][6] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the crushing volume of rapeseed in major coastal oil mills was 0 million tons, with an operating rate of 0%. As of January 9, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 25.1 million tons, a decrease of 2.2 million tons. The import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil expanded. The near - month contract of rapeseed oil had upward pressure and downward support [7] Part 3: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, oils and fats oscillate with increased volatility. Palm oil can be considered for high - selling and low - buying operations, and holders of short positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. Soybean oil may follow the overall market fluctuation [9] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10] - **Options**: Wait and see [11] Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of different oils and fats in different regions, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads from 2017 - 2026 [14][15][18]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the overall oil market is expected to fluctuate, with increased volatility. Palm oil can consider high - selling and low - buying operations, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend due to lack of independent drivers. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Data Analysis - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil 2605 is 8000 yuan, up 14 yuan. Palm oil 2605 is 8748 yuan, down 30 yuan. Rapeseed oil 2605 is 8949 yuan, down 68 yuan. The basis of each variety varies by region [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil is 138 yuan, down 6 yuan; palm oil is 66 yuan, down 34 yuan; rapeseed oil is 19 yuan, down 12 yuan [2] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The 05 - contract Y - P spread is - 748 yuan, up 44 yuan; OI - Y is 949 yuan, down 82 yuan; OI - P is 201 yuan, down 38 yuan. The oil - meal ratio is 2.91, up 0.02 [2] - **Import Profit**: The on - paper profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 85 yuan, and the on - paper profit of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 1406 yuan [2] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: As of the 2nd week of 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 102.5 tons, down from last week; palm oil is 73.6 tons, up slightly; rapeseed oil is 25.1 tons, down from last week [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year, maintaining the current 40% palm - based fuel and 60% diesel ratio. Starting from March 1st, Indonesia will raise the export levy on crude palm oil from 10% to 12.5%, and the levy on refined products will also increase by 2.5 percentage points [4] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of January 9, 2026, the national key - area commercial inventory of palm oil is 73.6 tons, a 0.30% increase from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed. The market rumors of 4 near - month purchases. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is not recommended to chase the high [4][5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills last week was 176.58 tons, with an operating rate of 48.58%. As of January 9, 2026, the national key - area commercial inventory of soybean oil is 102.51 tons, a 5.17% decrease from last week. The supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [5] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills last week was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%. As of January 9, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 25.1 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons. The import profit inversion has widened. The near - month contract has both upward pressure and downward support [6] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, the oil market fluctuates. Palm oil can use high - selling and low - buying strategies, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend [8] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [9] - **Options**: Wait and see [10] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, showing the spot basis of different oils and their monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads from 2017 - 2026 [13][14][17]

来源：华泰期货 作者： 白旭宇 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8778.00元/吨，环比变化+54元，幅度+0.62%；昨日收盘豆油2605 合约7986.00元/吨，环比变化-8.00元，幅度-0.10%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9017.00元/吨，环比变化 +37.00元，幅度+0.41%。现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8760.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度 +0.69%，现货基差P05+-18.00，环比变化+6.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8400.00元/吨，环比变化 +40.00元/吨，幅度+0.48%，现货基差Y05+414.00，环比变化+48.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格 9770.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.41%，现货基差OI05+753.00，环比变化+3.00元。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 近期市场咨询汇总：印度12月棕榈油进口量为507204吨，低于11月的632341吨，印度12月葵花籽油进口 量为349929吨，高于11月的142953吨，印度12月大豆油进口量为50511 ...

Report Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team [4] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Core Viewpoints - Due to the bearish USDA monthly supply and demand report, the surplus of US soybean supply, the increase in Brazilian soybean production, the sufficient global soybean supply, and the soybean reserve release, the Y2605 contract is under significant pressure near the integer mark of 8000 and the recent high. The main contract Y2605 is expected to trade in the range of 7850–8150. [8] - Palm oil showed a corrective trend of rising and then falling under the influence of the rumor that Indonesia cannot implement the B50 biodiesel policy in 2026. [8] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney visited China on January 14. The market expects the China-Canada trade relationship to ease, and China may gradually cancel the 100% punitive tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil. This week, rapeseed oil prices are likely to continue the downward trend, and attention should be paid to whether there is an official signal of tariff adjustment. [8] - The spread between near and far months of rapeseed oil shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The nearby rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, the cargo rights are concentrated, and the basis quotation is firm. In terms of arbitrage, go long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on rapeseed oil. Oils and fats are expected to continue to oscillate within a range, with resistance above and support below. [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: In the East China market, the basis price of the third - grade rapeseed oil in February was 05+800, from February to May was 05+650, and from April to May was 05+600. The quotation of rapeseed oil in Dongguan from January to February was 05+1200. The basis price of the first - grade soybean oil in the East China market was Y05+520 for spot, 05+500 from January to March, 05+480 from February to March, 05+380 from February to May, 05+360 from March to May, 05+300 from April to May, 05+240 from May to July, 05+210 from June to September, and 05+200 from July to September. The third - grade soybean oil was 05+450, and the degummed soybean oil was 05+320. The quotation of palm oil from Dongguan traders was stable: 05 - 20 for 24 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories, 05+40 for Guangdong national standard 24 - degree palm oil, and 05 - 200 for 52 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories. [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Be cautious about the future market of soybean oil. For palm oil, pay attention to the implementation of the B50 policy in Indonesia. For rapeseed oil, focus on the official signal of tariff adjustment. [8] 2. Industry News - **Global Weather Report**: In late January, the temperature in Argentina will tend to decrease with increased rainfall, which is very beneficial to the growth of corn and soybeans. In the next few weeks, most parts of Brazil will receive near - normal or above - normal rainfall, and there may be floods in the southeastern region. Paraguay will experience cool and wet weather in the next 1 - 2 weeks, which is beneficial to the growth of corn and soybeans. [9] - **Brazilian Soybean Harvest**: As of January 8, the harvest of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop had started, with 0.6% completed, slightly higher than 0.3% in the same period last year. AgRural expects the Brazilian soybean production this year to reach a record 6.51 billion bushels. As of January 9, according to PAN, the soybean harvest progress was 0.53%, compared with 0.05% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 0.39%. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso, the largest soybean - producing state in Brazil, is higher than the average in recent years but lower than that in 2024. In other parts of Brazil, the harvest is still in its early stages, mainly in irrigated areas. [9][10] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, etc., as well as basis price changes, spreads between different months of palm oil, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the RMB and the US dollar against the Malaysian ringgit. [7][17][18]