Report Overview - Report Date: December 4, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 yuan, supported by the cost of imported soybeans but with limited upside due to high inventory [8]. - For rapeseed oil, there is no new policy change. The far - month basis is weak, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread should be held. Since Australian rapeseed will arrive in December with a relatively small overall import volume, a long position can be taken on a single contract [8]. - Palm oil has many influencing factors. Bad weather in Malaysia and Indonesia, along with lower - than - expected production growth in November and possible tax cuts in Indonesia in December, may support the market in the short term. However, inventory in the producing areas is likely to continue to accumulate in November, so it should be regarded as range - bound with a resistance level around 9,000 yuan [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - East China's third - grade rapeseed oil: In December, it is OI2601 + 280; from December to January, it is OI2601 + 260. East China's first - grade rapeseed oil: From December to January, it is OI2601 + 360. - East China's first - grade soybean oil basis price: Spot is Y2501 + 260; from December to January, it is Y2601 + 270; from January to March, it is 05 + 430; from March to May, it is 05 + 350; from April to May, it is 05 + 310; from May to July, it is 05 + 230; from February to May, it is 05 + 370. - Palm oil quotes from Dongguan traders are stable with a downward trend. For example, Guangzhou Yihai's 18 - degree palm oil is 01 + 80; Dongguan COFCO's 18 - degree palm oil is 01 + 70; 24 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories is 01 - 30; Guangdong's national standard 24 - degree palm oil is 01 + 10; 52 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories is 01 - 200; 33 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories is 01 + 20 [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: As mentioned in the core viewpoints, hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread for rapeseed oil and consider long positions for single contracts, and expect range - bound trading for soybean oil and palm oil [8]. 3.2 Industry News - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in November were 779,392 tons, a 39.2% decrease from October. Exports to China were 39,000 tons, an 89,000 - ton decrease from the previous month [9]. - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in November were 1,316,455 tons, a 19.7% decrease from October. Exports to China were 129,000 tons, a 6,000 - ton decrease from October [9]. - According to AmSpec Agri, Malaysia's palm oil product exports in November 2025 were 1,263,298 tons, a 15.9% decrease from October [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil, and South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, and some spread data and exchange rate data [13][14][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil may face a risk of weakening and falling after a short - term rebound, maintaining a near - strong and far - weak view. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures were boosted by Malaysian palm oil in the early session. - For soybean oil, the demand from the US renewable fuel industry remains resilient, but the international crude oil decline may drag down CBOT soybean oil. In the domestic market, the short - term market may be dragged down, but the import cost of soybeans will support the market and limit the decline of the basis. - The supply of domestic soybean meal remains loose overall, but the supply in some regions is tightening, and the basis has short - term support. The unilateral market is unlikely to show an upward trend, and it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [1]. Pig Industry - The supply - side pressure may be less than previously expected, but the demand lacks highlights. The price of pigs is expected to maintain a volatile and weak structure. The strategy of inter - month reverse arbitrage can continue to be held, and the unilateral price is expected to continue to bottom out [3]. Meal Industry - The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern, but the supply in some regions is tightening, providing short - term support for the basis. It is difficult to see an upward trend in the unilateral market. The market should continue to focus on domestic purchases of US and Brazilian soybeans, and soybean meal is expected to maintain a volatile trend with light short - term trading [6]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the short term, the futures price is strong and hits a new high due to tight supply and strong spot prices. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of corn supply and inventory changes. If they recover, it will limit the price increase space [8]. Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures closed lower, and the raw sugar remains in a weak trend. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend [12]. Cotton Industry - In the short term, the cotton price will fluctuate within a range. ICE cotton futures closed slightly lower, supported by the weakening US dollar. In the domestic market, the purchase price of seed cotton is falling, and Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure, but the support below is still strong [13]. Egg Industry - The supply pressure is expected to ease marginally, but overall pressure still exists. The market trading is light, and the terminal consumption is weak. The futures price is expected to maintain a weak pattern at the bottom [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8620 yuan/ton, the futures price of Y2601 is 8286 yuan/ton, and the basis is 334 yuan/ton. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 8720 yuan/ton, the futures price of P2601 is 8730 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 10 yuan/ton. The盘面 import cost in Guangzhou Port in January is 9195.1 yuan/ton, and the盘面 import profit is - 465 yuan/ton. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 10050 yuan/ton, the futures price of Ol601 is 9711 yuan/ton, and the basis is 330 yuan/ton [1]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract of live pigs is 11925 yuan/ton, the price of the January contract is 11490 yuan/ton, and the price of the May contract is 11925 yuan/ton. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan range from 11100 - 12410 yuan/ton. The sample slaughter volume increased by 0.25% to 210037, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.38% to 18.21 yuan/kg, and the weekly price of piglets decreased by 2.86% to 17.00 yuan/kg [3]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 3060 yuan/ton, the futures price of M2601 is 3046 yuan/ton, and the basis is 14 yuan/ton. The盘面 import profit for Brazilian soybeans in February is 53 yuan/ton. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2400 yuan/ton, the futures price of RM2601 is 2408 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 8 yuan/ton. The盘面 import profit for Canadian rapeseed in January is 670 yuan/ton [6]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Corn**: The price of the January contract is 2259 yuan/ton, the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2300 yuan/ton, and the basis is 41 yuan/ton. The north - south trade profit is 59 yuan/ton, and the import profit is 352 yuan/ton. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the January contract is 2562 yuan/ton, the spot price in Changchun is 2590 yuan/ton, and the basis is 28 yuan/ton. The profit of Shandong starch is 1 yuan/ton [8]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the January contract is 5366 yuan/ton, the price of the May contract is 5297 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE raw sugar is 14.92 cents/pound. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming are 5420 yuan/ton and 5400 yuan/ton respectively. The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sales increased by 9.17% to 1048.00 million tons [12]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the January contract is 13780 yuan/ton, the price of the May contract is 13750 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE US cotton is 64.45 cents/pound. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton is 14862 yuan/ton, and the CC Index is 15005 yuan/ton. The commercial inventory increased by 24.2% to 363.97 million tons, and the industrial inventory increased by 4.9% to 93.14 million tons [13]. Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the January contract is 3138 yuan/500KG, and the price of the February contract is 3052 yuan/500KG. - **Spot Market**: The egg price in the producing area is 3.05 yuan/jin, the egg - to - feed ratio is 2.32, and the breeding profit is - 27.35 yuan/feather. The theoretical in - laying hen inventory in December is expected to decline [15].

关注美国生物柴油政策 近期，市场担忧洪水影响马来西亚及印尼棕榈油产量，美国环保局澄清2026年及2027年生物柴油合规义务量 下降的传闻，棕榈油价格出现反弹。在印度2026年斋月前，棕榈油仍然具有价格优势。尽管需求端支撑棕榈 油价格反弹，但是持续上涨还需要生物柴油及减产周期表现配合。 上半年，机构预估今年马来西亚棕榈油产量为1950万吨，略高于2024年的1934万吨。然而，从6月开始，马来 西亚棕榈油产量持续维持较高增速，进入减产周期的10月也保持增长，市场预估今年马来西亚棕榈油产量有 望突破2000万吨。另外，马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）10月报告显示，马来西亚棕榈油累库超预期。进入11 月，马来西亚棕榈油出口降幅不断扩大，印度和中国等国采购放缓。印尼能矿部公布的数据显示，截至11月 初，年内印尼生物柴油累计分销量为122.5亿升，而2025年全年目标为156亿升，如果保持当前分销速度，全年 目标将难以完成。 9月，印尼棕榈油产量环比下降22.45%，至429.8万吨，受9月工作日天数少的因素影响；1—9月，累计产量同 比增加440万吨。9月，印尼上调出口关税接近80美元/吨，导致当月棕榈油出口量环比下降 ...

第二部分 基本面分析 研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 12 月 03 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | | | | | | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | 2025/12/3 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | 品种 2601收盘价 | | 涨跌 | | 各品种地区现货价 | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8286 | (2) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8546 | | | | 8566 | 8446 | | 280 | -10 | 260 | -10 | 160 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8730 | 10 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8680 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodities, presenting market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each. It suggests different trading strategies based on the characteristics of each sector, such as short - term trading, long - term investment, and arbitrage opportunities [1] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share market declined with reduced trading volume on Tuesday. Major indices and four major stock index futures contracts all fell. There are preparations for commercial real - estate REITs and new regulations on infrastructure REITs. A - share market trading volume decreased, and there was a net capital withdrawal. Short - term strategies include lightly selling December put options and gradually building long - spread positions on dips [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with bond yields generally rising. The central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, and the bond market sentiment was weak. Although there was a net capital withdrawal in the open market, the inter - bank funds were still relatively loose. It is recommended to reduce left - side operations, temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the bond - fund redemption fee new regulations. Also, consider the positive - spread strategy for the 2603 contract [5][6] Precious Metals - **Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium**: Global central banks' expectations of monetary easing have decreased. Gold weakened, while silver continued to rise due to tight inventory. Platinum was dragged down by gold, and palladium rose due to industrial support. In the long - term, the bull market in precious metals is expected to continue, but there are short - term fluctuations. Different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [7][9][10] Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index and related routes' indices declined. The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends. The futures market is expected to be volatile in the short term [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the spot premium stabilized. There are concerns about potential supply shortages, and copper prices are expected to remain high in the long - term. Short - term trading should focus on December interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and pay attention to support levels [12][13][16] - **Alumina**: The visible inventory continued to increase, and the market supply was still abundant. The price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation, and the main contract's reference range has shifted downwards [17][18][19] - **Aluminum**: Driven by both macro and micro factors, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's monetary policy and domestic inventory reduction [19][20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand maintains resilience. The price is expected to have strong short - term performance, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered [21][22][24] - **Zinc**: The supply reduction expectation provides support, but the spot trading is dull. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the TC inflection point and refined - zinc inventory changes [24][25][27] - **Tin**: There are disturbances on the supply side, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and buy on dips, while paying attention to macro changes [27][29][31] - **Nickel**: The price is oscillating within a range, and the upward driving force is limited due to fundamental pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][32][33] - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillated slightly higher, but the fundamental pressure has not improved significantly. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' production - cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [33][34][36] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is oscillating, and market differences may increase in the future. It is recommended to wait and see, as the market faces issues such as large - scale factory resumption and off - season demand [37][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price opened lower and fell. The supply is expected to exceed demand in December, and it is recommended to wait and see in the futures market and take profit on put options [40][41][42] - **Industrial Silicon**: The demand is poor, and the futures price oscillated downwards. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the price range is estimated [43][44][44] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. The steel price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage strategy can be considered [45][46][47] - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the operating range is given [48][50][51] - **Coking Coal**: The price of domestic coking coal decreased, and the price of Mongolian coal stabilized. The futures price rebounded after an oversold situation. It is recommended to view it as an oscillation and consider an inverse - spread strategy [52][53][55] - **Coke**: The first - round price cut in December has been implemented, and the port trading price has declined. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and an inverse - spread strategy is recommended [56][57][58] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The market lacks guidance, and both domestic and international markets are mainly oscillating. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to China's soybean - purchasing trends [59][60][61] - **Pigs**: The spot price pressure remains, and the month - to - month inverse - spread position can be held. The pig price is expected to oscillate weakly [63][64][64] - **Corn**: The spot price shows a differentiated trend, and the futures price is oscillating. It is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm of corn supply [65][66][66] - **Sugar**: The raw - sugar price is in a bearish pattern, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset [67][68][70] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic cotton price is oscillating within a range. It is necessary to wait for the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report [70][71][72] - **Eggs**: The egg price is stable with a slight increase, but the pressure is still high. The futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [73][74][74] - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm - oil price rose, and the domestic palm - oil price followed suit. The domestic soybean - oil price is oscillating narrowly. Different outlooks and strategies are provided for each [75][76][77] - **Jujubes**: The price in the production area has weakened, and the futures price is oscillating weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the terminal consumption during the peak season [78][79][79] - **Apples**: The demand for stored apples is average, and the sales are slow. The market situation is relatively stable [80][80][80] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation has improved, and the short - term oil price is strong. The short - term support for PX is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7000 [80][81][81] - **PTA**: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. The rebound space for PTA is limited. It is recommended to view it as a high - level oscillation and consider a low - level positive - spread strategy [82][83][83] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the processing fee is mainly compressed. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee should be shorted on rallies [84][85][85] - **Bottle - Chip**: The supply - demand situation in December remains loose. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. It is recommended to short the processing fee [86][87][87] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to expected device maintenance, the inventory - building amplitude in December will narrow, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose. It is expected to oscillate within a range [88][88][88] - **Pure Benzene**: The port inventory is increasing, the supply - demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [89][90][90] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the profit has improved, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation [91][92][92] - **LLDPE**: The overall trading is weak, and the spot price has little change. It is expected to oscillate within a range [93][93][94] - **PP**: There are many unexpected device maintenance events, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [94][94][94] - **Methanol**: The spot price is strong, and the trading is acceptable. It is recommended to short the 05MTO spread [95][95][95] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand still has pressure, and the price is expected to run weakly [95][96][96] - **PVC**: The short - term futures price has rebounded, but the supply - demand contradiction has not improved. The price is expected to remain weak at the bottom [98][98][98] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda - ash production has rebounded after a decline, and the futures price is oscillating. The glass sales have declined, and the spot price has fallen. Different strategies are recommended for each [99][100][101] - **Natural Rubber**: The overseas raw - material price has stopped rising and started to fall, and the rubber price is mainly oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [102][104][104] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Driven by butadiene export news, the BR price has risen strongly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 10800 [104][106][106]

Group 1: General Market Conditions - On December 2, 2025, A-share's three major indexes collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.42% to 3897.71 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.68% to 13056.70 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.69% to 3071.15 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1593.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 280.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index adjusted on December 2, closing at 4554.34, down 22.15 [2] Group 2: Coke and Coking Coal - On December 2, the coke weighted index continued to rebound, closing at 1677.7, up 35.6; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated and closed at 1139.3 yuan, up 19.6 [2][3] - Coke supply is increasing, with significant inventory accumulation. Mine clean coal inventory increased by 20.44% in a single week, and coke plant inventory increased by 9.91% [4] - As of the end of October 2025, China's imported coking coal reached 98.869 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%. In October, the total import volume was 10.5932 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.02% and a year-on-year increase of 6.39%. From January to October, China's coke export volume was 6.2189 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.05%. In October, coke exports were 727,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 34% and a year-on-year increase of 49.92% [4] Group 3: Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the supply outlook and weak technical indicators, US sugar tumbled on Monday. Under the influence of the decline in US sugar, the short sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract to decline on Tuesday and in the night session [4] - Brazil's central-southern region produced 983,000 tons of sugar in the first half of November, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. The sugarcane crushing volume reached 18.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. The proportion of sugarcane used for sugar production dropped to 38.6% [4] Group 4: Rubber - Due to the large decline in the previous trading day, the rubber futures prices rebounded due to bargain hunting. The short sellers pressured the Shanghai Rubber futures to decline slightly in the night session [5] - ANRPC predicted that global natural rubber production in October would increase by 2.7% to 1.496 million tons, and consumption would decrease by 4.2% to 1.26 million tons. In the first 10 months, cumulative production was expected to increase by 2.6% to 11.9 million tons, and cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.8% to 12.684 million tons. In 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 1.3% to 14.892 million tons, and consumption was expected to increase by 0.8% to 15.565 million tons [5] Group 5: Soybean Meal - On December 2, CBOT soybean futures prices slightly declined. The large expected production of South American soybeans suppressed the speculation of US soybean demand [5] - As of last Thursday, the sown area of Brazilian soybeans reached 89% of the expected area, compared with 91% in the same period last year. StoneX estimated that Brazil's soybean production would be 177.2 million tons. Argentina's soybean sowing was progressing smoothly, with a planting rate of over 20% [5] - On December 1, the M2601 contract closed at 3039 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16%. Currently, soybean supply is sufficient, crushing volume has increased, and soybean meal inventory is at a high level. The domestic soybean meal futures market is in a situation of cost support and supply pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5] Group 6: Live Pigs - On December 2, the LH2601 contract closed at 11455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35%. In the short term, as the end of the year approaches, most large-scale pig enterprises are more willing to sell pigs to meet their annual targets, and the number of pigs for sale has increased, putting pressure on prices [5] - The demand for pork has increased marginally due to the drop in temperature, and the traditional bacon-making season has started in the southwest region, but the overall progress is slow, and the demand recovery is gentle. The live pig market is still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [5] Group 7: Palm Oil - On December 2, the main palm oil contract continued to move positions and rebound. The price briefly opened lower and then quickly rose, closing at 8720, up 0.79%. The expected export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 30 was 779,392 tons, a decrease of 39.21% compared with the same period last month [5] Group 8: Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai Copper 2601 contract showed a weak pattern of opening high and closing low. The linkage between futures and spot and between domestic and foreign markets weakened, and the trading activity decreased. The contract opened at 89410 yuan/ton, reached a high of 89920 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 88920 yuan/ton [6] - The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve supported the US dollar, suppressing global copper demand and causing funds to flow out of the non-ferrous metal sector. Traditional demand is weak, and the copper consumption in the real estate sector is under pressure. The supply-side positive factors cannot offset these two pressures [6] Group 9: Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main Zhengzhou Cotton contract closed at 13720 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased by 96 lots compared with the previous trading day. Xinjiang's cotton purchase is basically over, and it is in the peak processing period. The commercial inventory is growing rapidly and is significantly higher than the same period last year [6] Group 10: Iron Ore - On December 2, the main iron ore 2601 contract fluctuated and closed up 0.5% at 800.5 yuan. The shipping volume increased month-on-month, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased again. In the off-season, as the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline, the molten iron output continued to decline, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [6] Group 11: Asphalt - On December 2, the main asphalt 2601 contract fluctuated and declined 2.41% to close at 2916 yuan. In December, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan decreased month-on-month, the inventory decreased, the demand entered the off-season, and the downstream procurement was cautious. The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate [6] Group 12: Logs - On December 2, the log 2601 contract opened at 767.5, with a minimum of 767.5, a maximum of 774.5, and closed at 769.5, with a decrease of 1151 lots in positions. The spot price of 3.9-meter medium A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, down 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day, and the price in Jiangsu was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [6][7] Group 13: Steel - On December 2, the rb2601 contract closed at 3169 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3325 yuan/ton. The total new house sales area in ten major cities was 2.1112 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 10% and a year-on-year decrease of 38%. The real estate market is still at a low level. Due to the rush to complete infrastructure projects in some areas, demand has remained resilient, and steel inventory is expected to continue to decline. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [7] Group 14: Alumina - On December 2, the ao2601 contract closed at 2670 yuan/ton. The trading logic of alumina supply exceeding demand continues, and the upward pressure remains. Domestic alumina production capacity is high, the import window is open, and the arrival of imported alumina will further exacerbate the imbalance between supply and demand. Demand is weak, and the spot market trading is cold [7][8] Group 15: Shanghai Aluminum - On December 2, the al2601 contract closed at 21910 yuan/ton. The inhibitory effect of high aluminum prices on consumption has gradually eased, and some postponed demand has begun to be released. The operating rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, and primary and secondary aluminum alloy sectors have all improved to varying degrees. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil market lacks clear drivers, with large intraday fluctuations and overall maintaining a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long - at - low and high - throw - low - suck range operations. Do not rush to go long on palm oil [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - For soybean oil, the 2601 closing price was 8288 with no change. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8558, 8578, and 8448 respectively. Basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 290 (-10), 270 (0), and 160 (-10) [2]. - For palm oil, the 2601 closing price was 8720, up 68. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8670, 8750, and 8830 respectively. Basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -50 (0), 30 (-50), and 110 (0) [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price was 9745, down 25. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10025, 10295, etc. Basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi were 280 (-20), etc., and 550 (0) [2]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: - For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread was 192, down 10. For palm oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread was -22, up 24. For rapeseed oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread was 264, down 22 [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: - In the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was -432, down 68; the OI - Y spread was 1457, down 25; the OI - P spread was 1025, down 93; the oil - meal ratio was 2.72, down 0.01 [2]. - **Import Profits**: - The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia & Indonesia had a disk profit of -153, with a CNF price of 1045 for the 1 - month ship - period. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was -925, with an FOB price of 1080 for the 1 - month ship - period [2]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: - In the 48th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory was 117.9 million tons (last week: 118.0 million tons, same period last year: 98.2 million tons); palm oil inventory was 65.4 million tons (last week: 66.7 million tons, same period last year: 51.7 million tons); rapeseed oil inventory was 36.8 million tons (last week: 38.5 million tons, same period last year: 45.0 million tons) [2]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From January to October 2025, Indonesia's biodiesel production was 11.613 billion liters, consumption was 11.947 billion liters, and exports were zero [4]. - **Domestic Market**: - **Palm Oil**: As of November 28, 2025 (the 48th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 65.35 million tons, a 2.04% decrease from last week. It is currently at a neutral level in the same period of history. The origin quotation is stable, the import profit inversion has narrowed to around -200. The basis is stable with a downward trend. There is no clear short - term driver, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2008 million tons, with an operating rate of 60.54%, a decrease from the previous week. As of November 28, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 117.88 million tons, a 0.09% decrease from last week. It is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the inventory inflection point has been reached. The domestic demand is average, and the inventory may slightly decrease. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend, and one can consider lightly going long on dips [4][5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal main oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%, and the rapeseed inventory was exhausted. As of November 28, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 36.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons from the previous week, still at a high level in the same period of history but continuously de - stocking. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation is stable at around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit inversion has expanded to around -1000. The market has a sentiment of holding back sales. It is expected that the coastal de - stocking trend will continue. One can consider high - throw - low - suck operations [5]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Wait and see or conduct short - term long - at - low and high - throw - low - suck range operations. Do not rush to go long on palm oil [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]. - **Options**: Wait and see [9]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil; the 1 - 5 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil; the 01 spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, etc. [12][14]

Report Overview - Report Date: December 2, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Researcher Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soybean oil is expected to trade in a narrow range between 8,000 and 8,400, supported by the cost of imported soybeans, but the upside is limited due to high inventory [8]. - Rapeseed oil is policy - driven, with no new fundamental changes, and the market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand. The 1 - 5 inverse spread of rapeseed oil should be held, and attention should be paid to the customs clearance progress of Australian seeds and the regulatory policies of rapeseed oil reserves [8]. - Palm oil has many influencing factors. Adverse weather in Malaysia and Indonesia, lower - than - expected production growth in November, and possible tax cuts in Indonesia in December may improve exports, providing short - term bullish support. It is expected to trade in a range with resistance around 9,000 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - P2605 opened at 8,688, closed at 8,688 with a gain of 56 (0.65%), trading volume of 121,026, and open interest of 24,666 with an increase of 2,411 [7]. - P2601 opened at 8,638, closed at 8,652 with a gain of 64 (0.75%), trading volume of 367,522, and open interest of 312,424 with a decrease of 18,937 [7]. - Y2605 opened at 8,020, closed at 8,086 with a gain of 64 (0.80%), trading volume of 135,151, and open interest of 447,922 with an increase of 31,341 [7]. - Y2601 opened at 8,238, closed at 8,288 with a gain of 50 (0.61%), trading volume of 202,373, and open interest of 333,076 with a decrease of 14,314 [7]. - O1605 opened at 9,515, closed at 9,484 with a loss of 38 (- 0.40%), trading volume of 53,411, and open interest of 113,258 with an increase of 3,842 [7]. - Ol601 opened at 9,780, closed at 9,770 with a gain of 5 (0.05%), trading volume of 254,334, and open interest decreased by 4,352 [7]. - **Base Price Information**: - East China third - grade rapeseed oil: 11 - 12 months, OI2601 + 300; 12 - 1 month, OI2601 + 260. East China first - grade rapeseed oil: 11 - 12 months, OI2601 + 430 [7]. - East China first - grade soybean oil basis price: y2601 + 280 in December; y2601 + 290 in January; y2605 + 400 from February to May; y2605 + 250 from June to September [7]. - Palm oil quotes from Guangdong traders were slightly lowered by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Industry News - In Malaysia, the production of palm oil in November decreased by 0.19% month - on - month according to SPPOMA data, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area down 2.09% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.36% [10]. - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in November were 1,316,455 tons, a 19.7% decrease from October. Exports to China were 129,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from October [10]. - According to AmSpec Agri, Malaysia's palm oil product exports in November 2025 were 1,263,298 tons, a 15.9% decrease from October [10]. - As of November 26, the sowing progress of Argentina's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 36%, higher than 24.6% a week ago but 9% behind the same period last year and 1% behind the five - year average. Farmers in Santa Fe Province have started the second - season soybean sowing, with a progress of about 2.3%, and the emergence rate of sown soybeans is 23% [10][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - AgroConsult expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach a record 178.1 million tons, with the planting area increasing by 2.1% to 48.8 million hectares. Brazil's soybean exports this year will reach 109.1 million tons and are expected to grow by 2.7% to 112 million tons next year [19]. - As of the week of November 23, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 65% to 99,500 tons compared with the previous week. From August 1, 2025, to November 23, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports were 1.9284 million tons, a 47.8% decrease from the same period last year. As of November 23, Canada's commercial rapeseed inventory was 1.3743 million tons [19].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on agricultural products (oils) dated December 1, 2025, released by the research institute of Galaxy Futures [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Group 3: Core Views - Short - term oils lack drivers, with large intraday fluctuations and overall maintaining a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long and high - selling low - buying range operations, and not to rush to buy palm oil [10] Group 4: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - For soybean oil, the 2601 closing price was 8288 with a gain of 44. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8558, 8588, and 8458 respectively. Basis values in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 300, 270, and 170 respectively [2] - For palm oil, the 2601 closing price was 8652 with a gain of 26. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8602, 8732, and 8762 respectively. Basis values in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were - 50, 80, and 110 respectively [2] - For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price was 9770 with a gain of 13. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10070, 10320. Basis values in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi were 300, and 550 respectively [2] Month - to - Month Spreads - For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 month - to - month spread was 202 with a decline of 2. For palm oil, it was - 46 with a gain of 6. For rapeseed oil, it was 286 with a gain of 30 [2] Cross - Variety Spreads - For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was - 364 with a gain of 18, the OI - Y spread was 1482 with a decline of 31, the OI - P spread was 1118 with a decline of 13, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.73 with a gain of 0.02 [2] Import Profits - The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 225, and the CNF price was 1048. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 1074, and the FOB price was 1095 [2] Weekly Commercial Inventories - In the 47th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 118.0 tons (last week: 114.9 tons, last year: 105.3 tons), palm oil was 66.7 tons (last week: 65.3 tons, last year: 48.3 tons), and rapeseed oil was 38.5 tons (last week: 43.0 tons, last year: 44.1 tons) [2] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - According to foreign media reports, the devastating floods in Sumatra, Indonesia, have not had a significant impact on palm oil production. The affected areas are mostly residential areas rather than palm oil plantations [4] Domestic Market - Palm oil: As of November 21, 2025, the national commercial inventory was 66.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.39 tons (2.13%). It is at a neutral level compared to historical periods. The origin quotation is stable, the import profit inversion has widened to about - 300. The basis is stable. Short - term palm oil lacks a clear driver, with limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - Soybean oil: As of November 21, 2025, the national commercial inventory was 117.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.14 tons (2.73%). It is at a relatively high level compared to historical periods, but the inventory inflection point has been reached. The basis is stable. There are rumors of 1 - 3 tons of soybean oil exports. Domestic demand is average. Short - term supply is sufficient, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see and then try to go long lightly after a callback [7] - Rapeseed oil: As of November 21, 2025, the coastal inventory was 38.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.5 tons. It is at a high level compared to historical periods, but the inventory is continuously decreasing. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation is stable at around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit inversion has widened to about - 1000. The domestic basis is strong. It is expected that the coastal inventory will continue to decrease. It is recommended to go long on OI03 or 05 contracts when there is a callback [8] Group 6: Trading Strategies Unilateral - Short - term oils lack drivers, with large intraday fluctuations and overall maintaining a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long and high - selling low - buying range operations, and not to rush to buy palm oil [10] Arbitrage - It is recommended to wait and see [11] Options - It is recommended to wait and see [12]

Report Investment Ratings - Black Industry: Iron ore, coal coke, roll screw, and glass are rated as "oscillating"; coal coke is "oscillating weakly" [2] - Financial: CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as "rebounding"; 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year treasury bonds are "oscillating", with 10-year treasury bonds "rising"; Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 are "oscillating" [3] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are rated as "oscillating strongly" [3][4] - Light Industry: Logs are "oscillating at the bottom"; pulp, double-offset paper are "oscillating weakly" [4][6] - Oilseeds and Oils: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are "running in a range"; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.1, and soybean No.2 are "oscillating" [6] - Agricultural Products: Pigs are "oscillating strongly" [9] - Soft Commodities: Rubber, PX are "oscillating"; PTA is "oscillating"; MEG is "oscillating widely"; PR is "on the sidelines"; PF is "on the sidelines" [11] Core Views - The overall market is in a state of oscillation, with individual sectors showing weak, strong, or rebounding trends. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international economic situations [2][3][4] - The black industry is facing challenges such as over - supply and weak demand, and prices are likely to remain oscillating [2] - The financial market is short - term adjusted but remains optimistic in the medium - term, with high - tech industries continuing to grow [3] - Precious metals are supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, with prices likely to oscillate strongly [3][4] - The light industry is affected by supply and demand and cost factors, with prices oscillating at the bottom or weakly [4][6] - The oilseeds and oils market is affected by factors such as US biodiesel policies and South American weather, with prices running in a range or oscillating [6] - The agricultural products market, especially the pig market, is affected by factors such as supply and demand and slaughter rates, with prices oscillating strongly [9] - The soft commodities market is affected by factors such as weather and downstream demand, with prices oscillating [11] Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, 47 - port foreign ore arrivals increased by 569.6 tons to 2939.5 tons, and daily average molten iron production decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.68 tons. The supply - demand surplus is hard to reverse, and prices will oscillate at a high level [2] - Coal coke: Affected by import news and supply - guarantee meetings, the market is worried about supply resumption, and the coke enterprises started the first price cut. Supply concerns in the coking coal industry are intensifying, and prices will adjust weakly in the short - term [2] - Roll screw: Downstream demand is low, winter storage has not started, and prices will oscillate at the bottom. Whether steel prices can stop falling depends on production reduction and policy implementation [2] - Glass: Supply news is disturbing, and inventory has decreased. However, real - estate completion affects demand, and whether prices can rise depends on cold - repair progress [2][3] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The market adjusted in the short - term but remains optimistic in the medium - term. High - tech industries are growing. China's economic sentiment is generally stable [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 1bp, and the market trend is slightly rebounding [3] Precious Metals - Gold: Its pricing mechanism is shifting to central bank gold purchases. It is supported by factors such as the US debt problem, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases. Short - term Fed policies and geopolitical situations affect prices [3][4] - Silver: Similar to gold, it is affected by Fed policies and economic data, and prices are likely to oscillate strongly [4] Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments decreased, imports and arrivals are changing, and inventory is increasing. Prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][6] - Pulp: Spot prices are differentiated, costs support is weakening, and demand is poor. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - Double - offset paper: Supply is stable, the market is cautious, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] Oilseeds and Oils - Oils: US soybean crushing is at a record high, but bio - diesel policies are uncertain. Malaysian palm oil production and inventory are high, and domestic oil supply is abundant. Prices are expected to run in a range [6] - Meal: US soybean supply is structurally tight, but global supply is loose. Domestic supply is abundant, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. Prices are expected to oscillate [6] Agricultural Products - Pigs: The average trading weight fluctuates, demand has recovered, and slaughter rates are rising. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and settlement prices may decline slightly next week [9] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Affected by weather, production in some areas is low, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing seasonally. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [11] - PX: Supply is strong, downstream demand is good, and prices will oscillate [11] - PTA: Cost is loose, short - term supply - demand is improving, and prices will follow cost fluctuations [11] - MEG: There is long - term inventory pressure, and prices will oscillate with upward pressure [11] - PR: Cost is supported, but downstream follow - up is weak, and prices may rise with limited amplitude [11] - PF: Supply - demand is okay, and prices will oscillate without new news [11]