该机构表示，市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛市相比，当前指数 仍然有相当大的上涨空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨幅更加 重要。不过短期来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为上可能趋于稳健，股市短期 或以震荡蓄势为主。 ②东吴证券：A股近期调整系内外压力共振所致 东吴证券研报认为，A股本轮调整是外围因素与内生压力共同作用的结果：一是，全球流动性紧缩之 下，A股难以"独善其身"；二是，海外"AI泡沫"焦虑、科技板块下跌，波及A股；三是，历史上A股 Q4"结账季"博弈是常态。考虑到本轮指数回撤幅度在历年牛市同期中已处于中等偏上水平，近期连续 调整后继续下行的空间相对有限。判断11月之后市场调整会结束，并迎来春季行情的提前布局窗口。 光大证券：市场仍处牛市，但短期或宽幅震荡；东吴证券：A股近期调整系内外压力共振所致。 沪指本周累计下跌3.9%，深成指累计下跌5.13%，创业板指累计下跌6.15%。A股后市怎么走？看看机构 怎么说： ①光大证券：市场仍处牛市，但短期或宽幅震荡 光大证券研报称，本周市场表现震荡或主要受海外股市波动的影响。受美 ...

Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Economic Indicators - The final consumer confidence index for November dropped to 51 from 53.6 in October, marking a historical low for the current conditions index at 51.1, which fell by 7.5 points [1][3] - Consumers' assessment of their personal financial situation decreased by approximately 15%, with 47% of consumers mentioning high prices negatively impacting their finances, marking the fifth consecutive month of increase in this sentiment [3][4] - Expectations regarding the job market worsened, with 69% of consumers anticipating a rise in unemployment over the next year, up from 64% in October, more than double the 32% from November last year [3][4] Group 2: Market Performance of Consumer Sectors - The consumer sectors in the U.S. stock market have faced significant declines, with the essential consumer goods sector dropping three times more than the S&P 500 index since October, while the non-essential consumer goods sector fell by 5.2%, making them the worst-performing sectors [2][3] - If the market closes this week as projected, it will be the first time since 1990 that both non-essential and essential consumer goods sectors are the weakest among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 [2][3] Group 3: Broader Economic Concerns - Consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy, indicating that consumer activity is a critical variable despite market focus on companies like Nvidia [3] - The ongoing government shutdown has disrupted food assistance and affected many federal employees' pay, contributing to consumer frustration regarding high prices and shrinking incomes [4][5] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest level since July 2020, with initial claims for unemployment insurance reaching a four-year high, indicating increasing difficulty for unemployed individuals to find work [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant decline in consumer confidence in the U.S., indicating potential economic challenges ahead, particularly in the consumer sector [2][4]. Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan reported that the final consumer confidence index for November dropped to 51, down from 53.6 in October, marking a historical low [2][4]. - The current conditions index fell by 7.5 points to 51.1, also a record low [4]. - Consumer assessments of personal financial situations have declined by approximately 15%, with 47% of consumers citing high prices as a negative impact on their finances, a continuous increase over five months [4][5]. Stock Market Performance - The consumer sector in the U.S. stock market has faced significant selling pressure, with the essential consumer goods sector declining at three times the rate of the S&P 500 index since October [2][3]. - The non-essential consumer goods sector has also seen a 5.2% decline, making it one of the worst-performing sectors during this period [2][3]. - If the market closes this week as projected, it will be the first time since 1990 that both essential and non-essential consumer sectors are the weakest among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 [3]. Economic Implications - Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the U.S. economy, making it a critical variable despite the market's focus on other sectors like AI [4]. - The article suggests that the weak performance of the consumer sector may indicate a broader economic concern, as consumer sentiment is closely tied to spending behavior [4]. Employment Concerns - There is growing anxiety regarding the job market, with 69% of consumers expecting an increase in unemployment over the next year, up from 64% in October [4][5]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest since July 2020, and the number of individuals applying for unemployment insurance has reached a four-year high [5]. Income Disparity - The article notes a widening income gap among consumers, with wealthier individuals maintaining spending levels while those without stock assets are experiencing deteriorating financial conditions [5].

新华财经上海11月22日电 2025年已接近尾声，全球大类资产配置有何趋势，A股市场哪些板块更具投资价值，跨年行情又会呈现出哪些新的特征？围绕资产 配置与股市行情，在近期举行的第十四届"沪上金融家"的颁奖活动上，来自九方智投的多位业界投资专家接受了新华财经采访。他们表示，增配人民币资产 或已成为全球资产配置的重要趋势，得益于中国经济稳健复苏和人工智能（AI）等科技创新的支撑，A股市场有望继续上行，跨年行情值得期待，新能源、 消费等板块具备投资价值。 人民币资产受全球资本配置青睐 今年以来，全球经济复苏分化、美国关税政策扰动、美联储降息博弈、美股AI泡沫讨论持续、中国资产重估叙事等多重因素相互交织，驱动着各类资产估 值重构与资金流向调整。全球资本正重新评估不同区域资产的风险收益比，并调整相关资产配置。 A股有望继续向上拓展空间 从今年全球大类资产配置来看，两条核心主线已清晰显现。九方智投首席投顾黄伟分析认为，第一条主线是避险，黄金等贵金属价格大幅上涨，成为全球资 金的重要选择，各国央行持续增持黄金，进一步印证了市场避险需求旺盛。第二条主线是风险资产的"洼地效应"，尽管全球股票市场流动性依然充裕，但美 债收益率上 ...

美科技板块下跌，国内股指本周大幅回调 日期：2025-11-22 【股指期货周报20251122】美科技板块下跌，国内股指本周大幅回调 策略综述及建议 策略综术 【指数判断】 近期美科技股明显回调，国内股指同样分歧加大，上证指数回落至3800附近，但中长期来看，国内市场为流动性叙事。增量资金源源不断，股指盘整过后仍有上 行动能。 【逻辑跟踪】 3. 当前稳定资本市场政策积极、股指底线明确。而新技术、新消费在推动者经济预期企稳回升;"十五五"规划提高对科技创新要求,才内需,未来五年政策 大方向落地。 4. 无风险利率降至低位后,中长期资金入市及居民入市将进入全新周期。 5. 未来指数需要关注成交情况,两市成交若能维持在两万亿上方,则仍能维持相对强势。 6.建议重点配置具备盈利确定性的半导体、AI算力等科技成长赛道，同时关注金融（证券）、消费等低估值防御板块的轮动配置价值。 【风险提示】 1、美通胀再度抬头,未如预期降息;中美摩擦加深。 2、国内经济复苏进程未及预期。 浙商期货有限公司 报告撰写人:周志超 从业资格号:F03087618 1. 国际形势是复杂的,中美经贸磋商取得积极成果,双方在关税、海事等多方面达 ...

Market Overview - The market has experienced a significant decline, returning to a rating of 4.4 stars [1] - The CSI All Share Index has reverted to its early September levels [2] - All market caps have seen declines, with small-cap stocks experiencing the largest drop [3] - Value style stocks have declined less than growth style stocks, which have shown greater volatility [4] - The ChiNext Index has dropped over 4% [5] - Hong Kong stocks have also shown volatility, with technology stocks down 3% [6][7] Global Market Dynamics - The Nasdaq opened up 2% but closed down 2%, with intraday adjustments of 4-5% [10][11] - The Nasdaq had reached overvalued levels recently, marking the first instance of overvaluation this year, followed by an 8% correction [12][13] - Global market fluctuations have been influenced by the volatility in US stocks, with South Korean stocks down over 3% and Japanese stocks down over 2% [14][15] - A-shares have shown relatively smaller fluctuations compared to global markets [16] Asset Class Performance - Recently, both gold and bonds have also seen declines, with gold down 7.5% from its recent peak [17][18] - The recent downturn in the stock market has not led to a typical safe-haven performance from bonds or gold, indicating a simultaneous decline across asset classes, a rare occurrence [20][21] - This situation is often associated with liquidity crises, similar to events in 2013 and early 2020 [22][23] Federal Reserve Outlook - The company anticipates further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, as the current dollar interest rates remain high [25] - The total scale of US national debt has reached $38 trillion, with annual interest expenses exceeding $1 trillion [26] - The pressure from interest payments necessitates a reduction in rates and refinancing [27] - There may be several months to half a year between rate cuts [29] - If the Fed does not cut rates in December, there may be concerns about liquidity in the following months [32][34] Market Liquidity and Volatility - The current liquidity tightness is unusual, as typically one asset class would rise while others fall [35] - In times of liquidity crises, investors tend to sell long-term risk assets for short-term liquidity, increasing correlations among asset classes [39][40] - Small-cap stocks, growth stocks, and cryptocurrencies are particularly sensitive to liquidity conditions [41] - The ChiNext Index saw a significant rise of over 50% in Q3, followed by a correction of over 15% in Q4 [43][44] - The company has adjusted its portfolio to reduce volatility by taking profits from overvalued growth stocks [45] Future Market Expectations - Investors should not be overly concerned about the current liquidity tightness, as it typically lasts a few weeks to a couple of months [47] - As liquidity conditions improve, different asset classes are expected to rise again [48] - The ongoing rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve suggests potential buying opportunities during market dips [49]

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明 示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇11月21日｜百亿大佬林园近日称：我们公司的策略，仍然集中在那些和消费相关、与"嘴巴经济"相关的企业。它们的特点很清晰：产品有保质期，不 需要巨额投入来维持增长；一旦产能过多，市场很快就会自我调整，不像、高速公路这种固定资产，一旦投下去就很难纠正。说得简单一点，房子盖多了， 你没法凭空造个人进去住；路修多了，它的亏损就是亏损。但食品、消费这些行业则不同，供需的调整更快，市场纠错能力更强，也是我们认为在当下更容 易把握的方向。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证5( | | --- | --- | --- | | 3834.89 | 12538.07 | 1377.3 | | -96.16 -2.45% -442.75 -3.41% -68.14 -4 | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全/ | | 1285.83 | 2920.08 | ...

Group 1 - The core view is that the A-share market is expected to continue in a "slow bull" pattern in 2026, with several brokerages expressing optimism about market performance driven by key events such as the US-China trade agreement and the US midterm elections [1][2][3] - UBS forecasts that the MSCI China Index will reach a target of 100 by the end of 2026, indicating a 14% upside from current levels, supported by favorable factors including innovation and global competitiveness of Chinese companies [2][3] - The shift in market drivers from "valuation recovery" to "profit-driven" growth is anticipated, with expected earnings growth for the entire A-share market around 4.7% in 2026, highlighting the increasing importance of fundamentals [3][4] Group 2 - Key investment themes for the upcoming year include AI, with a focus on domestic chip production and applications in robotics and smart driving, as well as the globalization of Chinese companies transitioning to multinational operations [4][5] - The cyclical recovery in sectors such as oil, petrochemicals, and non-ferrous metals is expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition and clearing excess capacity, with a forecasted narrowing of PPI declines [5] - Consumer sectors may see a rebound if extraordinary stimulus measures are introduced, with long-term focus areas including health, emotional consumption, and internationalization [5]

最新金句： 1.人工智能、生物科技、新能源等领域，随着时间推移，迟早也会走到产能扩张、竞争加剧的那一步， 这是市场规律，只是早晚的问题。 这位一贯言辞犀利的基金经理每次发声，必然引来各路围观，他的投资表述总是让人眼前一亮，甚至是 与"主流"背离。 尤其是"老登股"争论发酵之后，林园多次替传统企业"说话"。这一次，他不仅继续"站台"，而是将自己 的思考掰开揉碎，从底层逻辑到未来趋势，把这份"执念"讲得更彻底。 整场发言看似平静，林园却句句带锋芒。 林园把一些看似朴素，却被市场忽略的基本常识重新摆到台面上，可以说是对"反对派"一次不动声色的 回击；也是对当下追逐新概念、新赛道情绪的一次冷静提醒。 作者 |崔峻阳 编辑 | 袁畅 11月20日下午，百亿私募大佬林园发声！ 2.新行业，我承认它们的方向肯定没问题，但从投资角度，我更关注这些企业能否真正跑出确定性的盈 利和生存能力。 3.过去的繁荣期里，资金大量流向城市建设和房地产，当这种资产价格出现下行时，就会让人直观地感 觉"资产缩水了"。 4.传统行业过去几年确实低迷，但头部公司凭借规模、资金和管理优势仍然能撑住。而且，那些低迷在 股价中已经充分反映。 5.食品、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: The A - share market closed lower with volatility yesterday. The liquidity rally since June is over, and the market focuses on fundamentals. New - quality productivity themes led by AI have optimistic growth expectations, especially in the upstream hardware manufacturing of the technology sector, but they lack event catalysts and are in a volatile phase. Traditional economic sectors are in a volatile recovery, and it's hard to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. The market volume, volatility, and risk appetite are decreasing, and the index is expected to be volatile in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also face expected divergence, and US tech stocks pulled back last week [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed lower yesterday. The central bank conducted 310.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, achieving a net injection of 115 billion yuan. The central bank's resumption of Treasury bond trading strengthens the expectation of reasonable and sufficient funds, which is beneficial to the bond market. The economic outlook for the fourth quarter is stable, the short - term necessity of central bank interest rate cuts is low, and the "stock - bond seesaw" effect disturbs bond market sentiment. The bond market is expected to continue the volatile pattern [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: Yesterday, the A - share market was volatile and closed down. The Wind All - A index fell 0.3% with a trading volume of 1.74 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indexes declined by 0.82% and 0.4% respectively, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes rose by 0.58% and 0.44% respectively. The new - quality productivity themes led by AI have good mid - term profitability expectations but lack short - term catalysts. Traditional economic sectors are in a volatile recovery, and the index is expected to be volatile in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also faced setbacks last week [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Yesterday, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts fell by 0.40%, 0.06%, 0.03%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 310.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. After the expiration of 195.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, a net injection of 115 billion yuan was achieved. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 declined. The central bank's actions strengthen the expectation of sufficient funds, but the "stock - bond seesaw" effect disturbs sentiment. The bond market is expected to be volatile [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: The IH rose 0.45% from 2,997.6 to 3,011.0, the IF increased 0.22% from 4,555.0 to 4,565.2, the IC decreased 0.35% from 7,079.8 to 7,054.8, and the IM dropped 0.73% from 7,351.8 to 7,298.2 [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The SSE 50 rose 0.58% from 3,003.0 to 3,020.3, the CSI 300 increased 0.44% from 4,568.2 to 4,588.3, the CSI 500 decreased 0.40% from 7,151.0 to 7,122.7, and the CSI 1000 dropped 0.82% from 7,448.1 to 7,387.2 [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The TS fell 0.03% from 102.49 to 102.46, the TF decreased 0.04% from 105.92 to 105.88, the T dropped 0.07% from 108.50 to 108.43, and the TL declined 0.38% from 116.53 to 116.09 [3]. 3.3 Market News - The Shanghai Stock Exchange revised and released the "Guidelines for the Application of Self - regulatory Rules for Funds of the Shanghai Stock Exchange No. 1 - Index Funds (Revised in November 2025)", which came into effect on November 19, 2025. For index funds with non - broad - based stock indexes as underlying indexes, several requirements need to be met, such as the number of constituent securities being no less than 30, the single - constituent security weight not exceeding 15% and the total weight of the top 5 constituent securities not exceeding 60%, etc. [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective monthly basis trends [6][7][9]. 3.4.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Charts include the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond spot yields, and the basis and inter - period spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures, as well as cross - variety spreads and capital interest rates [13][14][19]. 3.4.3 Exchange Rates - Charts show the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between the euro, pound, and yen against the US dollar [22][23][26]