A股这7大板块，勾勒出中 国经济全貌 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 妙投团队 编辑 | 丁萍 头图 | AI制图 幸福的人大致相同，不幸的人各有各的不幸。 银河证券研报显示，截至1月31日，2956家A股上市公司已披露2025年年报业绩预告，披露率为54%。其中 电机、地面兵装、个护用品、风电设备预喜率 （包括扭亏、续盈、略增、预增等情形） 超过70%，汽车行 业超过50%，受益于AI算力需求的电子和通信行业，预喜率分别达到45%和37%。这些大体上属于科技、高 端制造、新消费等领域。 而传统行业，大多较为一般。 煤炭、房地产、轻工制造、建筑装饰、食品饮料、社会服务、石油石化等行业预喜率较低，均低于25%； 焦炭、体育、林业、农业综合、厨卫电器、油气开采、白酒行业预喜率更是均为0%；传统行业中预喜率较 高的，主要是非银金融、有色金属、钢铁、公用事业等少数行业。 展望2026年，有些业绩不错的行业，有望继续保持成长。而有些2025年经营惨淡的行业，也有边际复苏的 机会，或者有复苏的预期。 这句话放到宏观经济各个层面中来看，也是如此。有的行业经历着良好的增长，有的行业在期待着复苏的 曙光。 2025年到现在，无 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the decision-making dilemma for investors in the Hong Kong stock market regarding whether to hold stocks or cash as the market approaches the Chinese New Year holiday, with a prevailing sentiment leaning towards holding stocks due to the noticeable "calendar effect" before the holiday [1][2]. Group 2 - The "calendar effect" in the Hong Kong stock market is similar to that of the A-share market, with historical data indicating an 82% probability of the Hang Seng Index rising in the last three trading days before the holiday. However, the probability of an increase in the month following the holiday drops to about 60% [2][3]. - A review of the past decade shows that the probability of the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rising in the week before the holiday is 70%, 90%, and 70% respectively, while the probabilities for the week after are 60%, 70%, and 70% respectively, indicating a decline post-holiday [3]. - Changes in pricing logic for the Hong Kong market are noted, with a significant decrease in correlation with the US market and a stronger correlation with the A-share market, suggesting that if the A-share market experiences a strong rally, the Hong Kong market may follow suit [3]. Group 3 - The AI industry chain and other technology sectors are highlighted as areas of focus for brokers, with the Hang Seng Tech Index recently breaking through its annual line, indicating a release of emotional suppression. This could lead to a recovery in market sentiment and capital inflow [4]. - The research suggests that the valuation attractiveness of the Hong Kong market has increased after recent adjustments, with expectations of a fluctuating upward trend around the Chinese New Year. Key sectors to watch include consumer, precious metals, energy, and technology, particularly those benefiting from AI advancements [5].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体上涨，截止到收盘，回到3.8星。 大中小盘股都上涨，中小盘股上涨更多一些。 今天上涨后，500低波动重新达到高估。 红利等价值风格微涨。 美股纳斯达克100下跌4%；黄金白银等商品价格也出现较大波动。 市场担心美联储降息的不确定性。 不过到了周五，美联储发表讲话，认为预计今年晚些时候，通货膨胀率会继续降低。 美元通货膨胀率降低，有利于美联储降息。 这减缓了市场对短期流动性的担心。 北京时间，上周五晚上全球股票市场、商品市场又出现大幅反弹。 创业板等成长风格上涨较多。 港股今天也整体上涨。 涨幅跟A股差不多。 1. 上周一到上周四，全球股票、商品市场出现较大波动。 周一A股港股开盘之后也出现了补涨。 2. 从2024年9月以来，美联储进入降息周期。 利率之于资产，就好比地心引力之于物体。 美元利率、汇率下降，全球流动性充裕，带动全球资产估值提升。 全球股票市场上涨30%上下，商品等市场也出现大幅上涨。 A股港股上涨更多，整体上涨50-60%。 并且流动性充裕，更容易看到小资产（小盘股、小国家股票市场、小体量的有色金属）出现大幅上涨。 3. 不过中间也会阶段性的 ...

Wind数据显示，港股通互联网ETF易方达（513040）、恒生科技ETF易方达（513010）上周净流入额分 别为6亿元和18亿元。 截至收盘，中证港股通医药卫生综合指数上涨2.1%，中证港股通消费主题指数上涨1.9%，中证港股通 互联网指数上涨1.7%，恒生港股通新经济指数上涨1.5%，恒生科技指数上涨1.3%。 活3，但负事产品，其管理费率0.195/年，托管费率0.05%年。 注4，基金有风险。投资消息率0.195/年，托管器率0.05%年。 注4，基金有风险。投资消息者。订阅基金法律文件及交易所，陆加公司等相关业务院则。 | 港股通消费ETF易方达 低费率 | | | 513070 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数 | | | | | 该指数由港股通范围内流动性 | 令目 | 该指数 | 该指数自2020年 | | 较好、市值较大的50只消费主 | 该指数涨跌 | 滚动市盈率 | 发布以来估值分位 | | 题股票组成,可选消费占比超 | 1.9% | 18.2倍 | 2. 8% | | 65% | | | | 送1) "但我像"是在上场查2严厉具 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇2月9日｜M&G Investments分析师法比亚娜·费德利表示，近期全球科技股抛售并不意味着人工智 能投资热潮终结。她指出，这更像是"一次有意义的市场调整，而非AI投资周期的结构性断裂"。费德利 认为，投资机会远不止集中在少数几家受到市场关注的美国大型科技公司。在消费、传媒和金融等多个 行业，企业正积极部署AI以优化成本结构和提升收入表现。她补充道，AI投资热潮的最大受益者可能 并非那些投入巨资的公司，而是最善于抓住AI机会、具备战略布局优势的企业。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed strong performance with all three major indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.17% and a total trading volume exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan, an increase of over 100 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 4,400 stocks in the market experienced gains, with sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, short drama games, optical fiber, CPO, dyes, cultivated diamonds, semiconductors, and computing power leasing leading the gains, while sectors like liquor, oil and gas, and banking lagged behind [1] - The ChiNext Index rose by 3.1%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.4%, and the STAR Market 50 Index was up by 2.0%, indicating a broad-based rally in the market [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext Index consists of 100 stocks with high market capitalization and liquidity, with a significant proportion in strategic emerging industries, particularly in the power equipment, communication, and electronics sectors, which together account for nearly 60% [4] - The STAR Market 50 Index is composed of 50 stocks from the STAR Market with high market capitalization and liquidity, prominently featuring "hard technology" leaders, with semiconductors making up over 65% and combined with medical devices, software development, and photovoltaic equipment accounting for nearly 80% [4]

Macro Commentary - The report indicates a slowdown in China's economic growth in Q1, but improvements in deflation are noted, with policymakers signaling a focus on stabilizing real estate, promoting consumption, and countering "involution" [2] - The US economy is expected to rebound, with rental inflation declining, offsetting a rise in commodity inflation, leading to a stable dollar liquidity environment [2] - The report anticipates only one interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June this year, with a potential for a spring rebound in the stock market [2] Internet Sector - In January, high beta stocks benefitting from event-driven catalysts significantly outperformed the industry, aided by improved market risk appetite and liquidity [2] - Major Chinese internet companies are increasing market spending on AI applications targeting end-users, with 2026 identified as a critical year for capturing user engagement in the AI era [2] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,560, down 1.21% for the day but up 3.63% year-to-date, while the US markets showed a rebound with the Dow Jones up 2.47% [2] - The report highlights the performance of various indices, with the Hang Seng Financial Index down 1.89% and the Hang Seng Property Index up 17.49% year-to-date [3] Investment Strategy - A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended, focusing on companies with certain profit growth and those benefiting from AI [5] - Specific stocks to watch include Tencent, Alibaba, and Kuaishou for their AI-driven growth potential, and NetEase and Trip.com for their stable earnings visibility [5] Software and IT Services - The report expresses optimism for the software sector, expecting revenue growth to support valuations, while cautioning about the competitive pressures from AI model vendors [6] - Recommended stocks include Palo Alto Networks in the US and Kingdee in China, which are expected to benefit from AI-related revenue growth [6] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector is viewed positively, driven by AI demand, with structural shortages in memory products like HBM and server DRAM [7] - Recommended stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang and Northern Huachuang, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for computing power [7] Technology Sector - The report anticipates a continued high demand for AI computing infrastructure and innovations in consumer electronics, with specific recommendations for companies like Luxshare Precision and BYD Electronics [8] Consumer Sector - The Hang Seng Consumer Index has risen 8% year-to-date, driven by high elasticity in discretionary consumption sectors [9] - The report highlights the potential for increased consumer spending during the Spring Festival, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumption [10] Automotive Sector - January saw a slowdown in automotive sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, but a recovery is expected post-Spring Festival [11] - Recommended stocks include Geely for its expanding new energy vehicle matrix and Xpeng for its potential to turn profitable [11] Pharmaceutical Sector - The report emphasizes the long-term trend of innovative drugs going global, with a focus on clinical progress and data validation for drugs already in international markets [12] - Recommended stocks include Innovent Biologics and CanSino Biologics, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trend of drug commercialization [12] Capital Goods Sector - The report notes a positive outlook for the capital goods sector, particularly in construction machinery, driven by rising metal prices and increased mining capital expenditures [21] - Recommended stocks include SANY Heavy Industry and Zoomlion, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for construction equipment [21] Real Estate and Property Management - The real estate sector is optimistic due to favorable policies, with the Hang Seng Property Index rising 15% year-to-date [19] - Recommended stocks include China Jinmao and Greentown China, which have shown significant price increases [19]

Group 1 - The global stock market has shown signs of recovery, with a notable rebound in the last two trading days, particularly in the US market, which rose approximately 2% last Friday [3] - The rebound in the US and European markets is attributed to two key factors: the latest economic data was not as concerning as previously feared, and investors reassessed the new Federal Reserve chairman, viewing him as potentially less hawkish than initially thought [3] - The recovery in the stock market is expected to have a stabilizing effect on the Hong Kong market, which is closely linked to overseas markets and typically exhibits a high positive correlation [3] Group 2 - The recent movements in the consumer and brokerage sectors were not detailed in the provided content, thus no specific insights can be summarized for these areas [1][4]

Group 1 - The market index and style are expected to further evolve in 2026, with a continued upward trend in the overall index, but a shift towards a more diversified market style [4][8][14] - The chemical sector is anticipated to replace non-ferrous metals as the leading sector for price increases, while AI applications are expected to take over from AI hardware [4][8][14] - The consumption sector is projected to replace dividend stocks as a new defensive choice, with potential opportunities in white liquor, beauty care, movies, and tourism during the pre-Spring Festival period [4][8][14] Group 2 - Recent market performance shows the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 2.11%, indicating a general downward trend in major indices [16] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 23,863.81 billion, a decrease of 21.37% from the previous week, reflecting reduced market activity [16] - The consumption sector has shown strength, particularly in food and beverage and beauty care, but has not yet become the main market line, indicating a selective investment approach [7][9][14] Group 3 - The capital expenditure of major overseas tech companies is projected to reach approximately $650 billion in 2026, focusing on new data centers and AI-related infrastructure [10][11] - Concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures have emerged, with potential impacts on stock prices if these expenditures do not correlate with revenue growth [10][11] - The recent Central Document No. 1 emphasizes promoting stable income for farmers, highlighting the importance of agricultural modernization and rural revitalization [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen a surge in activity since the beginning of 2026, with insurance capital accelerating its investments in this market, indicating a strategic shift towards global asset allocation and a preference for undervalued quality assets [1][2]. Group 1: Insurance Capital Participation - Since January 2026, insurance capital has participated in cornerstone subscriptions for 10 Hong Kong IPOs, with a total subscription amount of HKD 1.558 billion, compared to HKD 2.620 billion for 12 IPOs in 2025 [1]. - Major cornerstone investors in recent IPOs include Ping An Life and Taikang Life, with Ping An Life acquiring 6 million shares of Muyuan Foods, representing 2.2% of the base issuance, and Taikang Life acquiring 943,100 shares of Dongpeng Beverage, representing 2.31% of the H-share issuance [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Preferences - The current low-interest-rate environment makes the Hong Kong market an attractive avenue for insurance capital seeking global asset diversification, especially given the lower valuations and higher dividend yields of H-shares compared to A-shares [2]. - Insurance capital is increasingly focusing on "hard technology" and new consumption sectors, aligning with national strategic priorities, and has shown a tendency to engage in competitive bidding for select IPO projects [3]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Logic - In 2025, Hong Kong's capital market regained its position as the global leader in IPO fundraising, with a total of USD 37.4 billion raised, marking a new high since 2021 and surpassing the total of the previous three years [5]. - The average first-day increase for new stocks was 23.8%, with a cumulative first-month increase of 30.7%, particularly strong in the biotech and healthcare sectors, making the IPO market appealing for insurance capital seeking stable returns [5]. - Tax advantages for insurance companies, such as exemptions on dividend income from H-shares held for over 12 months, enhance the attractiveness of investing in Hong Kong stocks compared to individual investors and mainland public funds [5].