Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,965.12, unchanged, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.49% to 13,604.07 [2] Industry Commentary - The solar power sector saw a significant increase in new installations, with a month-on-month growth of 75% in November, totaling 22.02 GW of new capacity [5][8] - The coal import data indicates a continued upward trend in import prices, with November's average price reaching $73 per ton, despite a year-on-year decrease in import volume [11][13] Company Insights - The report highlights the company "Hengdong Light" as a national-level "specialized and innovative" small giant in the optical communication field, focusing on passive optical devices [15][17] - Hengdong Light's revenue is projected to grow rapidly from 475 million yuan in 2022 to 1.315 billion yuan in 2024, with net profit expected to increase significantly during the same period [17][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the photovoltaic sector, including Aiko Solar and Longi Green Energy, as well as those involved in energy storage and market-oriented electricity [12] - The investment outlook for Hengdong Light is positive due to its competitive advantages and strong growth potential in the optical communication market [17][18]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to continue its upward trend due to clear domestic policy, strong economic growth momentum, and relatively loose market liquidity[3] - Investors are advised to actively position for the spring market, focusing on sectors with improving performance and benefiting from policies[3] Group 2: Recommended Stocks - BeiGene (688235.SH): Global sales of its core product, Zanubrutinib, reached $2.78 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 53.2%[4] - Beijing Junzheng (300223.SZ): The storage cycle is on the rise, and the company is expected to benefit from the L3 autonomous driving market[11] - Haiguang Information (688041.SH): The company is a leading domestic computing power provider, with revenue maintaining rapid growth in the first three quarters of 2025[18] - Daotong Technology (688208.SH): The company has seen rapid revenue growth and is advancing its AI strategy[26] - Penghui Energy (300438.SZ): The company ranks among the top three globally in household storage cell shipments in the first three quarters of 2025[32] - Goldwind Technology (002202.SZ): The gross margin for wind turbine and component business reached 7.97% in the first half of 2025, showing significant improvement[39] - Chifeng Gold (600988.SH): The company is expected to benefit from rising gold prices and increased production from new mining projects[46] - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH): The company is positioned to benefit from rising copper prices and increased production[52] - Huaxin Cement (600801.SH): The company reported a 120.7% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2025[57] - China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH): The company has maintained a high dividend yield, exceeding 3% since 2018[65]

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined, and the degree of inversion in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed. The nominal and real yields of 10-year US Treasuries have both decreased, indicating a drop in inflation expectations [2][14] - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally eased, while the domestic interbank funding environment remains balanced. The yield spread between 10-year and 1-year government bonds continues to widen [2][19] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has increased, with many indices experiencing a rise in volatility. Sectors such as retail, military, consumer services, light industry, and textiles are seeing trading activity above the 80th percentile [3][25] - Most indices have shown increased volatility, with sectors like communication, electronics, electric new energy, and chemicals remaining above the 80th historical percentile [3][32] - Market liquidity indicators have declined, with liquidity metrics across sectors remaining below the 70th historical percentile [3][37] Sector Research Activity - Research activity is high in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, electric new energy, machinery, and non-ferrous metals. The research interest in automotive, computing, communication, and chemicals is also on the rise [4][43] Analyst Profit Forecasts - Analysts have raised profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025 and 2026. The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in profit forecasts has increased across the board [4][51] - Specific sectors such as real estate, construction, coal, consumer services, and home appliances have also seen upward adjustments in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [4][51] - The profit forecasts for the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upwards, while the profit forecasts for the CSI 500 have been adjusted downwards [4][51] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, continuing a net sell-off of A-shares. The ratio of buy-sell amounts in sectors like communication, non-ferrous metals, and consumer services has increased, while it has decreased in electronics, computing, and banking [5][29] - For stocks with holdings below 30 million shares, net buying has primarily occurred in computing, non-bank financials, and coal sectors, while net selling has been observed in communication, non-ferrous metals, and automotive sectors [5][31] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has rapidly increased, reaching the highest point since November 2025. The net buying has been concentrated in sectors like electronics, electric new energy, and communication, while net selling has occurred in non-bank financials, oil and petrochemicals, and retail sectors [6][35] - The proportion of financing purchases has increased in sectors such as consumer services, banking, and electric new energy [6][38] Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to rise, with significant net subscriptions in ETFs, particularly those related to institutional investors. Active equity funds have mainly increased their positions in non-ferrous metals, media, and consumer services, while reducing positions in communication, home appliances, and retail sectors [7][45] - The newly established equity fund scale has increased, with active funds seeing a rise while passive funds have decreased. ETFs related to the CSI A500 index have been primarily net purchased, while sectors like military, electronics, and agriculture have seen net selling [7][52]

- The report tracks the performance of various stock market indices, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks, highlighting their weekly, monthly, and year-to-date performance[1][16][17] - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of different stock market styles, such as growth vs. dividend, small-cap vs. large-cap, and micro-cap vs. CSI 800, including their relative crowding and excess net value[2][60][71] - The report includes a comprehensive analysis of the valuation and equity-bond cost-effectiveness of A-shares, with specific focus on PE_TTM and ERP metrics for various indices and sectors[3][41][49][51] - The report tracks the performance and crowding of different investment styles, such as momentum vs. reversal, and their relative excess returns[2][60][71] - The report provides insights into the impact of US bond yields on the performance of different stock market styles, such as large-cap vs. small-cap and growth vs. dividend[3][82][84] - The report includes a detailed analysis of the main fund indices, including their absolute and relative returns, and tracks the scale of public funds and their impact on the market[3][88][90][94] - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the commodity market, including the performance of various commodity indices in China and the US[3][123][125]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: China Securities A500 Index - **Model Construction Idea**: The China Securities A500 Index aims to provide a balanced industry representation and incorporate ESG exclusion criteria to enhance the sustainability and resilience of its constituent stocks[2][21]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Sample Space**: The index includes A-shares and depositary receipts issued by red-chip companies that meet specific criteria, such as not being ST or *ST securities, having been listed for more than a quarter, and being part of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect or Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect[21]. 2. **Exclusion Criteria**: Securities with a China Securities ESG rating of C or below are excluded[22]. 3. **Selection Criteria**: Securities are selected based on their market capitalization, liquidity, and industry representation to ensure a balanced distribution across sectors[22]. 4. **Final Selection**: The index includes 500 securities, with a focus on large-cap, highly liquid stocks, and aims to reflect the performance of the most representative listed companies in each industry[21][22]. - **Model Evaluation**: The inclusion of ESG criteria significantly optimizes the risk-return characteristics of the index, enhancing its investment value by reducing volatility and increasing excess returns[24][27]. Model Backtesting Results - **China Securities A500 Index**: - **Expected Annual Return**: 12.9%[9] - **Annualized Volatility**: Lower compared to the benchmark index after ESG exclusion[24] - **Correlation with Other Assets**: Low correlation with Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, commodities, gold, and bonds, making it suitable for risk diversification[17][19] - **Excess Return**: Significantly higher than the benchmark index after ESG exclusion[24] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: ESG Exclusion - **Factor Construction Idea**: The ESG exclusion factor aims to enhance the sustainability and resilience of the index by excluding companies with poor ESG ratings[2][21]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **ESG Rating**: Companies with a China Securities ESG rating of C or below are excluded from the index[22]. 2. **Selection Criteria**: The remaining companies are selected based on their market capitalization, liquidity, and industry representation[22]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The ESG exclusion factor significantly improves the risk-return profile of the index, reducing volatility and increasing excess returns[24][27]. Factor Backtesting Results - **ESG Exclusion Factor**: - **Annualized Return**: 3.96% for the China Securities 500 ESG Benchmark Index compared to 2.42% for the China Securities 500 Index[24] - **Annualized Volatility**: Lower for the ESG Benchmark Index compared to the standard index[24] - **Maximum Drawdown**: Lower for the ESG Benchmark Index compared to the standard index[24] Additional Information - **Index Characteristics**: The China Securities A500 Index includes large-cap, highly liquid stocks with a balanced representation of new and traditional economies, focusing on sectors such as electronics, electric power equipment and new energy, banking, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals[31][33][35]. - **Index Valuation and Profitability**: The index's current valuation is not high, with significant room for upward valuation adjustment. The expected earnings growth is high, making it a cost-effective investment[45][47]. Fund Information - **Fund Name**: China Securities A500 ETF - **Fund Objective**: To closely track the target index, minimizing tracking deviation and tracking error[51]. - **Fund Manager**: Managed by Mr. Li Jun, who has extensive experience in managing passive index products[53]. - **Fund Performance**: The fund has been operating steadily since its inception, closely tracking the performance of the China Securities A500 Index[54]. Fund Manager Information - **Asset Management Scale**: China Asset Management's scale continues to grow, ranking among the top in the industry with a comprehensive product line[57]. References - [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66]

- The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors that have reached new highs, which are considered market indicators[11] - The report uses a 250-day high distance metric to represent new highs, calculated as follows: $ 250 \text{ day high distance} = 1 - \frac{Closet}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where Closet is the latest closing price and ts_max(Close, 250) is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11] - As of December 26, 2025, the 250-day high distances for major indices are: Shanghai Composite Index 1.63%, Shenzhen Component Index 0.89%, CSI 300 1.91%, CSI 500 1.19%, CSI 1000 0.56%, CSI 2000 0.05%, ChiNext Index 2.42%, STAR 50 Index 12.56%[12] - The 250-day high distances for CITIC Level 1 industry indices are: National Defense and Military Industry 0.00%, Nonferrous Metals 0.00%, Building Materials 0.00%, Machinery 0.00%, Light Manufacturing 0.44%[13] - The 250-day high distances for some concept indices are: Forestry, Aerospace and Military Industry, Wind Power, Top Ten Military Groups, HJT Battery, Metals and Nonmetals, Gold[15] - As of December 26, 2025, 726 stocks reached new 250-day highs in the past 20 trading days, with the most in the Machinery, Electronics, and Basic Chemicals industries[19] - The highest proportions of new high stocks are in the National Defense and Military Industry, Petroleum and Petrochemicals, and Nonferrous Metals industries[19] - By sector, the most new high stocks are in Manufacturing and Technology, with 261 and 176 stocks respectively[20] - By index, the proportions of new high stocks are: CSI 2000 14.65%, CSI 1000 11.50%, CSI 500 15.20%, CSI 300 15.33%, ChiNext Index 15.00%, STAR 50 Index 6.00%[20] - The report identifies 50 "stable new high" stocks based on analyst attention, relative strength, trend continuity, price path stability, and new high persistence[24][27] - The most stable new high stocks are in the Cyclical and Technology sectors, with 21 and 15 stocks respectively[28]

- The report introduces a quantitative model named "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify hot sectors. The model is based on momentum and trend-following strategies, which have been proven effective in previous studies[11][18][19] - The construction process of the "250-day new high distance" model is as follows: Formula: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Explanation: - $ Close_t $ represents the latest closing price - $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ represents the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance equals 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of pullback from the high[11] - The model evaluates the proximity of major indices to their 250-day highs. For example, as of December 26, 2025, the 250-day new high distances for indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 1.63% and 12.56%, respectively[12][31] - The report highlights the effectiveness of tracking stocks that consistently hit new highs, as these stocks often lead market trends. This approach aligns with the principles discussed in "The Stock Wizard" and other momentum-based studies[18][19] - A screening method for "stable new high stocks" is introduced, focusing on factors such as analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path smoothness, and trend sustainability. Stocks are selected based on their performance over the past 120 days and their ability to maintain a stable upward trajectory[24][27] - The screening process includes specific metrics: - Analyst attention: At least five buy or overweight ratings in the past three months - Relative stock strength: Top 20% in market performance over the past 250 days - Price path smoothness: Evaluated using metrics like price displacement ratio - Trend sustainability: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and the last five days[27] - The report identifies 50 "stable new high stocks" for the week, including companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Yingweike, and Xinyisheng. These stocks are primarily concentrated in cyclical and technology sectors, with the highest representation in industries like non-ferrous metals and renewable energy equipment[28][32] - Backtesting results show that the "250-day new high distance" model effectively captures market trends and identifies leading stocks. For instance, indices closer to their 250-day highs often exhibit stronger momentum, and stocks with stable new highs demonstrate consistent upward trajectories[12][31][32]

报 告 摘 要 平稳创新高股票跟踪 我们根据分析师关注度、股价相对强弱、趋势延续性、股价路径平稳性、创新高持续性等角度，本周从全市场创新高股票中筛选出了包含中际旭创、英维 克、新易盛等50只平稳创新高的股票。按照板块来看，创新高股票数量最多的是周期、科技板块，分别有21、15只入选。其中，周期板块中创新高最多的 是有色金属行业；科技板块中创新高最多的是电力设备及新能源行业。 一 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪 触及新高的个股、行业和板块可被视为市场的风向标。越来越多的研究表明动量、趋势跟踪策略的有效性。本报告旨在定期跟踪市场中创新高的个股及其 分布，以追踪市场趋势、把握市场热点。 截至2025年12月26日，上证指数、深证成指、沪深300、中证500、中证1000、中证2000、创业板指、科创50指数250日新高距离分别为1.63%、 0.89%、1.91%、1.19%、0.56%、0.05%、2.42%、12.56%。中信一级行业指数中国防军工、有色金属、建材、机械、轻工制造行业指数距离250日 新高较近，食品饮料、银行、医药、综合金融、房地产行业指数距离250日新高较远。概念指数中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - environment in 2026 continues to warm up. The combination of "low inflation + weak reality + Fed chair change" in the US is conducive to Fed easing, and the quality of January's economic data is expected to return to normal. The "broad fiscal + broad monetary" policy in the US promotes economic prosperity. The ECB maintained interest rates unchanged in December and raised GDP forecasts for this year and next. Japan's interest rate hike was implemented as expected without radical tightening, and it raised the 2025 GDP growth forecast while maintaining the 2026 forecast [6]. - In China, the National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference was held on December 23, deploying work for 2026 such as urban renewal, stabilizing the real estate market, and upgrading the construction industry. The renovation of underground pipe networks is a highlight, and it is expected that capital investment will increase slightly next year. In November, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 1.3%, falling short of expectations and the previous value. Investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate continued to weaken, while exports remained a significant support [6]. - In asset allocation, the macro - environment is favorable for the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors. In the precious metals sector, the logic of gold's rise is clear and it has a high safety margin, while silver has increased volatility risk after a sharp rally. In the non - ferrous metals sector, there are opportunities to buy on dips for commodities with more supply disruptions like copper, aluminum, and tin, and attention should be paid to lithium carbonate with good supply - demand performance. The domestic equity sector should be mainly defensive during the year - end and policy - free window period [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4610.6, with a daily increase of 0.344, a weekly increase of 1.85%, a monthly increase of 3.09%, a quarterly decrease of 0.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.729%. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also showed different degrees of increase. The market is boosted by dual factors, but continuous offensive still needs to wait. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the situation of incremental funds [2][7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Options are used for covered call writing to increase returns. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the liquidity of the options market [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The long - end sentiment is still weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the implementation of monetary policy [7]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.9535, with a daily change of 0%, a weekly decrease of 0.77%, a monthly decrease of 1.49%, a quarterly increase of 0.13%, and a year - to - date decrease of 9.70%. The euro - US dollar, US dollar - yen, and other exchange rates also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank deposit - based pledge rate was 1.4, with no change on the day, a weekly decrease of 4 bp, a monthly decrease of 10 bp, a quarterly decrease of 5 bp, and a year - to - date decrease of 35 bp. The 10Y Chinese government bond yield, 10Y US Treasury yield, and other interest rates also changed [2]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold was at 1008.76, with a daily decrease of 0.58%, a weekly increase of 2.95%, a monthly increase of 5.75%, a quarterly increase of 15.05%, and a year - to - date increase of 63.34%. Silver and other precious metals also had corresponding changes. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, driven by the expectation of loose liquidity and the tight supply of silver in the spot market. Attention should be paid to the US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [2][7]. 3.3 Shipping - The container shipping price on the European line was 1799.7, with a weekly increase of 0.22%, a daily increase of 4.65%, a monthly increase of 22.27%, and a year - to - date decrease of 20.26%. The near - term demand is supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments, and attention should be paid to the resumption of shipping in the far - term. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the 2026 shipping company's resumption plan, year - end long - term contract signing prices, and the support of pre - Spring Festival cargo owner shipments to prices [2][7]. 3.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, and the futures price continues to rebound. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and pig iron production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipment and arrival decreased slightly, and port inventories continued to accumulate. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic pig iron production, weather conditions, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: After the third round of price cuts, coke enterprise profits turned negative. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: After the earthquake in Shanxi, the sentiment of going long is high. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply pressure has been alleviated, and the futures price is mainly running at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the upside space is expected to be limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: The spot market is still weak, and the futures price is volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand situation is still in surplus, and the spot price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to soda ash inventories [7]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventories continue to accumulate, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, the Fed being less dovish than expected, and the recovery of domestic demand falling short of expectations [7]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [7]. - **Aluminum**: The Mozal aluminum plant is facing shutdown, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to macro - risks, supply disruptions, and demand falling short of expectations [7]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventories continue to increase, and the upside space for zinc prices is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the risk of macro - turnarounds and the unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: The downstream's willingness to take delivery has improved, and lead prices may stop falling and stabilize. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to supply - side disruptions and the slowdown of battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel ore, and nickel prices have rebounded. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to unexpected macro - and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and the failure of supply to be released as expected [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: The rebound of nickel prices has driven the stainless - steel futures price to rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: The downstream's rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices are oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and silicon prices have rebounded. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the unexpected resumption of supply - side production and policy changes [7]. - **Polysilicon**: The expectation of state - reserve purchases is still fermenting, and polysilicon prices continue to be highly volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the unexpected resumption of supply - side production and domestic photovoltaic policy changes [7]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical situation remains unresolved, and oil prices have risen for five consecutive days. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: The strong - reality situation is facing a loosening, and attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream production cuts. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to cost - side developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material benefits have been realized, and asphalt futures prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil in oscillation. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: The coastal and inland markets are in a stalemate, and methanol is seen as oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to macro - energy and overseas actual shutdown dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Both supply and demand are weak, and the futures price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the coal market and the progress of commercial storage [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Polyester production cuts have dampened market sentiment, and ethylene glycol has entered a low - valuation range again. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to coal and oil price fluctuations and port inventory rhythms [10]. - **PX**: Bullish funds continue to bet, and the negative news of polyester production cuts has been quickly digested. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - abnormalities, and refining and chemical plant disruptions [10]. - **PTA**: Cost and sentiment jointly drive the price, and polyester production cuts have emerged. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - abnormalities, and insufficient support from downstream polyester loads [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The pattern of strong upstream and weak downstream is prominent, with serious differentiation and passive profit compression. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the downstream yarn factory's purchasing rhythm and the conversion rhythm between peak and off - peak seasons [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The cost of upstream raw materials supports the price. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - cut targets and the commissioning of new plants [10]. - **Propylene**: The spot market is strong, and there is an expectation of a decrease in PDH operating rates. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [10]. - **PP**: The expectation of maintenance boosts the market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - situations [10]. - **Plastic**: The support of maintenance is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - situations [10]. - **Styrene**: There are constraints on both rising and falling. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and plant dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment is positive, and the short - term futures price is strong. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low - valuation support leads to a rebound at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to market sentiment, operating rates, and demand [10]. 3.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil was relatively strong yesterday. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the expected changes in domestic and foreign oil and fat production and demand [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The inventory pressure continues, and the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand, South American weather, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: Snowy weather has a phased impact on the supply in the production area. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to demand, the macro - situation, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Both supply and demand are increasing, and pig prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price maintains a narrow - range oscillation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price trend continues to be strong. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to sharp fluctuations in crude oil [10]. - **Cotton**: The rebound continues. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to production and demand [10]. - **Sugar**: Short - sellers taking profits drives the sugar price to rebound. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to imports and Northern Hemisphere production [10]. - **Pulp**: The price is fluctuating in a recent high - level range, and the futures price trend is dominated by funds. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [10].

目前看，双创与科技板块预期盈利高于当前实现水平，建议关注2026年的业绩兑现情况;与近似PB的行 业相比，国防军工盈利水平仍有提升空间;食品饮料与家电行业盈利性的差距逐渐缩小，但长期看或存 在估值趋近的过程;大盘指数内新旧经济增长动能切换的态势显著，总体盈利和价格波动的稳定是其配 置价值的基础。2026年1月是2025年年报业绩预告观测时间窗口，建议关注相关行业的业绩兑现情况。 中信证券主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研究报告称，2025年以来A股市场走出持续3年的"哑铃"格局，科创、 创业板为代表的硬科技板块成长性回升是其基本面基础。经过6至10月的系统性估值修复后，10月以来 行业间走势分化加剧，而截止Q3的业绩持续增长是大部分行业10月后表现韧性的基础。 1)2025年8月后市场估值趋于分化，10月短期震荡后再创新高。10月后，由于上涨节奏的切换，系数 Beta短期缓解后再创新高，目前已经超过2023年初的分化水平。 2)10月后不同行业价格走势的结构出现分化，但成长性是其行情韧性的基础。部分行业在10月后的上涨 节奏不受影响，或短期受到影响后重新回归上行趋势，大部分此类行业在2025年 ...