市场短期补涨后或有回档 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 05 04 年 月 日 量化周报 市场短期补涨后或有回档。节前（4.28-4.30），大盘震荡下行，上证指数 全周收跌 0.49%。在此背景下，大部分指数迎来了一波 30 分钟级别回调。 节日期间，海外及港股市场均出现了不同程度的上涨，我们认为受此影响， A 股市场短期或将出现补涨，当下我们认为，经历了贸易战的冲击后，市 场的底部区间已然探明，市场补涨完成后将会选择方向，我们仍倾向于市 场再次回档，具体原因如下：1、本轮回调从高点到低点指数调整幅度均已 超过 10%，有些指数甚至超过 20%，调整幅度基本充分；2、大部分规模 指数的日线级别下跌只走了 1 浪结构，时间和结构不够充分；3、28 个中 信一级行业中，仍有 8 个行业处于日线级别上涨中，而处于日线下跌的 20 个行业中，9 个行业日线下跌只走了 1 浪结构，结构不够充分。中期来看， 上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 1 浪结构，中期牛市刚刚 开始；此外，已有 21 个行业 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The report suggests that gold prices have experienced a significant adjustment since April 22, 2025, with a cumulative decline of 5.35% by May 2, 2025, following a substantial increase of over 200% since early 2024 [1][9] - The U.S. economy's growth rate has turned negative in Q1 2025, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of -0.3%, which is below market expectations and marks the first negative growth since Q1 2022 [12][19] - The report indicates that the U.S. employment market is showing signs of mild cooling, with April 2025 non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000, down from 185,000 in March [20][24] - U.S. fiscal spending has slowed down, primarily due to a reduction in defense spending, with government consumption and investment growth at 0.8% in Q1 2025 [25][26] - The technical analysis of gold suggests that the price has reached its target levels, and further upward movement will require either a new accumulation phase or significant new capital inflows [31][36] Group 2: Macro Asset Quantitative Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the earnings outlook for equities in Q1 2025, with a stable credit environment and government bonds continuing to dominate [2][8] - It predicts a potential decline of 9 basis points in the 10-year government bond yield to 1.53% in May 2025, driven by falling economic growth and inflation factors [2][15] - The real estate sector is experiencing a rebound in industry pressure, with an index reading of 0.500, indicating a slight improvement in market conditions [2][20] Group 3: Style and Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high win-rate and high-odds sectors such as electric equipment and new energy, computing, non-ferrous metals, machinery, electronics, and steel, which have shown an absolute return of 12.05% since 2024 [4][29] - It also suggests a "clearing reversal strategy" for sectors that are at the end of a clearing phase, with rising demand and improved competitive dynamics, specifically recommending non-ferrous metals [4][31]

Core Viewpoint - The overall A-share market is expected to experience a decline in net profit for 2024, with a projected decrease of 3.0% for the entire market, 9.0% for the financial sector, and 14.2% for the non-financial sector, primarily due to significant impairment losses in the fourth quarter of 2024, particularly in the real estate and photovoltaic industries [1][2][3] Profit Growth - In 2024, the A-share market's net profit is forecasted to decline by 3.0%, with the financial sector showing a growth of 9.0% and the non-financial sector declining by 14.2%. The non-financial sector's revenue is expected to decrease slightly by 1%, with a significant drop in profit margins compared to 2023 [2][3] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a rebound in net profit for the A-share market, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% for the entire market, 2.9% for the financial sector, and 4.2% for the non-financial sector, indicating a recovery in downstream industries [3][4] Profitability Analysis - The return on equity (ROE) for non-financial A-shares has remained stable, marking 15 consecutive quarters of decline since Q2 2021. The marginal improvement in net profit margins is offset by a significant decline in asset turnover rates [1][15] - Industries such as electronics, home appliances, non-bank financials, and agriculture have shown consecutive improvements in ROE over the past two quarters [15][23] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Non-financial capital expenditure has been in negative growth for four consecutive quarters, but new economy sectors are seeing a rebound in capital expenditure growth. The total assets of non-financial enterprises have stabilized, with a notable increase in prepayments [2][16] - The free cash flow to equity ratio for non-financial companies has reached a historical high, supporting an increase in dividend payout ratios to 45% in 2024, with the dividend yield for the CSI 300 rising to 3.2% [2][18] Industry Performance - The first quarter of 2025 has highlighted strong performance in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, certain export chains, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), with significant year-on-year profit growth in these areas [3][4] - The agricultural sector has shown remarkable recovery, with a profit growth of 2541.6% due to low base effects, while non-bank financials have benefited from improved capital market conditions, achieving a profit growth of 48.7% [2][4] Market Outlook - The current economic environment suggests that the low point of the profit downturn cycle has been surpassed, but attention must be paid to the impact of tariff policies on corporate fundamentals in the second quarter of 2025 [2][38] - The market is advised to seek opportunities in sectors with recovering demand and low tariff impacts, particularly in AI-related industries and companies with strong cash flows that are less exposed to external demand [39][40]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Insights - The company has shown impressive performance in Q1 2025, with significant growth in overseas business [1][6]. - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 778.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.76%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 110.36 billion yuan, up 16.92% year-on-year [6]. - The company's R&D investment increased significantly, reaching 3.164 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 29.26%, with R&D expenses accounting for approximately 4.06% of revenue [6][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 190.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.92%, and a net profit of 38.26 billion yuan, up 82.52% year-on-year [6]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 29.94%, an increase of 2.76 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 14.47%, up 1.17 percentage points [6]. Business Development - The company is focusing on strengthening its wind energy business, with significant advancements in wind power conversion technology [4][8]. - The global shipment of photovoltaic inverters reached 147 GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, with revenue from power electronic conversion devices amounting to 291.27 billion yuan, up 5.33% year-on-year [6]. Market Expansion - The company has expanded its global presence, with products sold in over 180 countries and regions, and a growing number of service points worldwide [6]. - The energy storage system business saw a revenue increase of 40.21% year-on-year, reaching 249.59 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 36.69% [6]. Future Projections - The company expects EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 6.09 yuan, 6.96 yuan, and 7.80 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of approximately 10, 9, and 8 [10].

本周是五一长假前的最后一个交易周，上市公司年报和一季报也将披露完毕，泓德基金表示，市场未来 三个月将进入业绩的真空期，外部环境的变化可能的对国内资本市场产生一定程度的扰动，但我们相 信，按照政治局会议的部署，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩 大高水平对外开放，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧 变化的不确定性，中国经济这艘巨轮可以行稳致远。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 整体来看，泓德基金分析，当前政策仍处于以"筹备"和"积蓄弹性"为主的阶段，结构性调控和局部支持 依然是主旋律，这使得市场将更多将目光聚焦于中美谈判进展以及潜在的降关税交易预期上。 从债券市场看，泓德基金表示，上周利率债收益率普遍上行。信用债收益率也多数上行。MLF超额续 作短暂提振但未能扭转观望情绪，超长端波动收窄显示市场分歧仍在，市场仍在等待央行降准降息。 上周国内权益市场延续小幅反弹走势，日均成交量相较上上周变化不大，维持在1.1万亿元附近，万得 全A周涨幅为1.15%。具体来看，国内主要股指中，小型股股指涨幅较大，中证1000（+1.8%）和中证 2000（ ...

另外海外方面，克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长 Beth Hammack,在 4 月 24 日发言时表明如果有明确经济走弱方面的证据， 美联储最早可能在 6 月采取降息的行动。受此消息的推动，海外市场定价降息预期的程度提升，10 年期美债利率有所 回落。若短期贸易冲突舆情不继续加剧，我们预期海外资金风险偏好会有所回升。所以对于未来一周，在国内外政策 端和情绪面的支持下，我们战术性仓位推荐切换至人工智能和电子等板块。 本周央行通过 7 天逆回购投放了 8820 亿元，到期 8080 亿元，整体通过公开市场操作净投放 740 亿元。短端 1 周 SHIBOR 和 DR007，分别报 1.638%和 1.6587%，较上周分别下降 1.6 BP 和 5.29 BP。1 个月 SHIBOR 和 3 个月 SHIBOR 分别报 1.747%和 1.75%，较上周分别下降 1.6 BP 和 1.1 BP。 结合经济面和流动性来看，对于未来一周，我们建议核心仓位维持在大盘价值，而战术性仓位推荐切换至人工智能和 电子等板块。从中期来看，根据我们构建的宏观择时策略给出的信号，4 月份权益推荐仓位为 25%。拆分来看，模型 对 4 月份 ...

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 发布时间：2025-04-28 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 研究助理:李子凯 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100014 Email:lizikai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《OpenAI 发布 GPT-4.1，智谱发布 GLM- 4-32B-0414 系 列 — — AI 动态汇总 20250421》 - 2025.04.23 《国家队交易特征显著，短期指数仍交 易补缺预期，TMT 类题材仍需等待—— 行业轮动周报 20250427》- 2025.04.21 《小市值强势，动量风格占优——中邮 因子周报 20250420》 – 2025.04.21 《基本面与量价共振，如遇回调即是买 点——微盘股指数周报 20250420》 – 2025.04.21 《Meta LIama 4 开源，OpenAI 启动先 锋计划——AI 动态汇总 20250414》 - 2025.04.15 《融资盘被动爆仓导致大幅净流出， GRU 模型仍未配置成长——行业轮动周 报 2025 ...

摘要：本科就读于北京航空大学机电专业，11年深耕汽车、机械、新能源领域 2025年4月，北京亦庄的马拉松比赛，20支人形机器人队伍与1.2万名来自全国各地的人类选手同场竞 技，最终"天工Ultra"以2小时40分42秒的成绩摘下了桂冠。 机器人是国内先进制造崛起的缩影之一。早在产业趋势出现前，华安基金就启动布局产业跟踪和市场调 研。具有产业学术背景+投研实力的"华安基金科技联盟"，在科技投资的每个细分领域都在不断扩容深 耕与迭代探索。 其中，基金经理熊哲颖本科就读于北京航空大学机电专业，此后11年深耕汽车、机械、新能源领域。当 AI浪潮袭来，她从AI赋能底层机械装备、永续能源等角度，快速挖掘出新科技带来的投资机会，并在 机器人、新能源汽车、机械设备等领域发挥所长。 她构建了一套"抓结构+布节奏+选个股"三位一体的投资框架，将成长股投资体验"更加从容舒适"作为投 资目标。 投资前，熊哲颖会先思考持仓结构，始终不忘"控制回撤"的领先目标。 作为典型的新能源制造+科技成长风格选手，熊哲颖的持仓结构，整体围绕着"先进制造"领域展开，在 维持行业均衡的同时，再通过重仓个股的方式提高锐度，形成了"攻守兼备"的体系。 以其 ...

报 告 摘 要 一、公募FOF基金2025年一季度概览 截至 2025Q1 ，全市场已成立 FOF 产品数量 512 只，合计规模为 1510.79 亿 元，相比 2024Q4 增加 13.47% 。根据穿透后权益资产占比将 FOF 划分为偏 债型 FOF 、平衡型 FOF 和偏股型 FOF ， 2025Q1 规模分别为 766.59 亿 元、 326.02 亿元、 418.18 亿元， 2025 年一季度收益中位数分别为 0.44% 、 1.57% 、 2.64% 。 二、 2025年一季报中FOF配置最多的基金 为了能更好地观察 FOF 基金经理的投资偏好，本文就市场关注度较高的几类基 金分别统计了 FOF 重仓数量最多和重仓规模最大的基金。 在主动权益基金中，重仓该基金的 FOF 数量最多的三只基金是 大成高鑫 A 、富 国稳健增长 A 、华夏创新前沿 ；重仓规模最大的三只基金是 华夏创新前沿、大 成高鑫 A 、易方达信息行业精选 C 。 在债券型基金中，重仓该基金的 FOF 数量最多的三只基金是 广发纯债 A 、易方 达安悦超短债 A 、富国纯债 AB ；重仓规模最大的三只基金是 易方达安悦超短 债 ...

Group 1: Fund Size and Performance - The total net asset value of public funds reached 31.62 trillion yuan at the end of Q1 2025, a decrease of 0.63 trillion yuan compared to the end of Q4 2024 [3][16] - Non-monetary market fund size totaled 18.29 trillion yuan, down 0.35 trillion yuan from the previous quarter, reflecting a 1.87% quarter-on-quarter decline but an 11.84% year-on-year increase [3][16] - The total number of active equity funds was 4,533, with a combined size of 3.81 trillion yuan, showing a 1.10% increase from the previous quarter but a 5.73% decrease year-on-year [5][27] Group 2: Active Equity Funds Analysis - The average holding ratio of active equity funds was 86.36% at the end of Q1 2025, a slight increase from 86.29% in the previous quarter [5][30] - The top ten heavy-weight stocks accounted for an average of 38.63% of the net asset value of active equity funds, down from 40.75% in the previous quarter [5][30] - The concentration of active equity fund management is high, with the top ten fund companies accounting for 44.3% of the total active equity fund size [5][31] Group 3: Fixed Income Plus Funds - As of the end of Q1 2025, there were 1,547 fixed income plus funds with a total size of 1.39 trillion yuan [6][53] - The majority of fixed income plus funds are classified into medium and low elasticity groups, with medium elasticity funds accounting for 49.7% of the total size [6][57] - The investment in non-ferrous metals and banking sectors increased significantly, with respective increases of 3.0% and 1.2% in heavy-weight positions [6][82] Group 4: FOF, ETF, QDII, and Quantitative Funds - The total size of FOF funds reached 1510.79 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.5% [7] - The ETF market size was 36,633.88 billion yuan, up 4.15% from Q4 2024 [7] - The QDII market had 257 funds with a total size of 524.80 billion yuan at the end of Q1 2025 [7]