Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference has announced structural adjustments in policies related to domestic demand, consumption, and "anti-involution," which may lead to a rotation of market hotspots [1] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The conference emphasized "optimizing drug centralized procurement," which is expected to enhance profit margins for pharmaceutical companies with intellectual property and patent reserves [1] - The shift in focus towards service consumption, particularly in cultural tourism and sports, is anticipated to benefit from the transition of "national subsidies" [1] - "Domestic demand as the main driver" has been highlighted as the top policy priority for the coming year, with a strong emphasis on "releasing the potential of service consumption" [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The ChiNext 50 ETF (159375) rose over 1.1%, reflecting the potential impact of the policy adjustments on market performance [1] - The ChiNext 50 Index (399673), which the ETF tracks, includes 50 securities selected for their liquidity and market capitalization, focusing on strategic emerging industries such as power equipment, new energy, and pharmaceuticals [1] - The index has a daily fluctuation limit of 20%, indicating high volatility and growth potential within the ChiNext market [1] Group 3: Industry Implications - The policy changes are expected to lead to valuation recovery in innovative pharmaceuticals and medical devices due to shifts in centralized procurement and support for an aging population [1] - The "anti-involution" policy will also focus on "platform enterprises" and the deepening of quality improvement in small and medium financial institutions, which may accelerate the consolidation of brokerage firms [1]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a mixed performance on December 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3876.37 points, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell to 13053.97 points, down 1.29% [1][4] - Among the 30 sectors tracked, 14 saw gains, with coal, banking, and oil & petrochemicals leading the increases, while sectors like electric equipment, new energy, communication, and electronics faced significant declines [1][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market reached 16,768 billion, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][4] Overseas Market Overview - On the same day, all three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones rising 0.14%, the S&P 500 up 0.79%, and the Nasdaq increasing by 1.38% [2][4] - Notable performers included Amazon, which rose over 2%, and Nvidia, which gained nearly 2%, leading the Dow [2][4] - Chinese concept stocks mostly saw gains, with Xpeng Motors increasing by nearly 3% [2][4] Industry Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission highlighted increased downward pressure on investments since 2025, emphasizing the need for targeted measures to enhance effective investment, particularly in emerging industries [10] - On the same day, 2,845 stocks in the A-share market rose, while 2,416 fell, indicating a broad market activity with 173 stocks rising over 5% and 83 declining over 5% [10] News Highlights - The launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port was officially initiated, marking a significant step in China's reform and opening-up strategy [11] - The Ministry of Commerce expressed strong opposition to the European Commission's investigations into several Chinese companies, emphasizing the need for a fair business environment [12] - For the first time in 16 years, China will implement export licensing for steel products starting January 1, 2026, to enhance monitoring and quality control [13] - A significant discovery of Asia's largest underwater gold mine was reported in Yantai, Shandong, with proven gold reserves exceeding 3,900 tons [14]

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio **Construction Idea**: This factor captures the buying behavior of large funds by analyzing the proportion of large order transaction amounts relative to the total daily transaction amount[7] **Construction Process**: 1. Use tick-by-tick transaction data to identify buy and sell orders based on the sequence numbers of bids and asks 2. Filter transactions by order size to identify large orders 3. Calculate the proportion of large buy order transaction amounts to the total daily transaction amount **Formula**: $ \text{Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio} = \frac{\text{Large Buy Order Transaction Amount}}{\text{Total Daily Transaction Amount}} $ **Evaluation**: This factor effectively reflects the buying behavior of large funds and provides insights into market dynamics[7] - **Factor Name**: Net Active Buy Amount Ratio **Construction Idea**: This factor measures the active buying behavior of investors by analyzing the net active buy amount as a proportion of the total daily transaction amount[7] **Construction Process**: 1. Use tick-by-tick transaction data to classify each transaction as either active buy or active sell based on the buy/sell indicator 2. Calculate the net active buy amount by subtracting the active sell amount from the active buy amount 3. Compute the proportion of the net active buy amount to the total daily transaction amount **Formula**: $ \text{Net Active Buy Amount Ratio} = \frac{\text{Active Buy Amount} - \text{Active Sell Amount}}{\text{Total Daily Transaction Amount}} $ **Evaluation**: This factor provides a clear representation of investors' active buying behavior and is useful for tracking market sentiment[7] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio**: - Top 5 stocks with the highest 5-day average values: 1. *Zaisen Technology (603601.SH)*: 91.4%, time-series percentile: 99.6%[9] 2. *Annie Shares (002235.SZ)*: 91.2%, time-series percentile: 98.4%[9] 3. *Kangxin New Materials (600076.SH)*: 87.9%, time-series percentile: 99.6%[9] 4. *Guangtian Group (002482.SZ)*: 87.6%, time-series percentile: 100.0%[9] 5. *Zhongtai Chemical (002092.SZ)*: 87.5%, time-series percentile: 100.0%[9] - **Net Active Buy Amount Ratio**: - Top 5 stocks with the highest 5-day average values: 1. *Hot Scene Biology (688068.SH)*: 15.9%, time-series percentile: 100.0%[10] 2. *Lanxiao Technology (300487.SZ)*: 14.5%, time-series percentile: 100.0%[10] 3. *Yilian Technology (301631.SZ)*: 14.0%, time-series percentile: 100.0%[10] 4. *Xiamen Bank (601187.SH)*: 14.0%, time-series percentile: 99.2%[10] 5. *Huamao Technology (603306.SH)*: 13.1%, time-series percentile: 99.6%[10] --- Additional Factor Testing Results - **Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio for Broad-Based Indices**: - *Shanghai Composite Index*: 5-day average: 73.0%, percentile: 59.0%[12] - *CSI 300*: 5-day average: 72.0%, percentile: 33.6%[12] - *ChiNext Index*: 5-day average: 71.4%, percentile: 14.8%[12] - **Net Active Buy Amount Ratio for Broad-Based Indices**: - *Shanghai Composite Index*: 5-day average: 0.8%, percentile: 7.8%[12] - *CSI 300*: 5-day average: 2.6%, percentile: 4.9%[12] - *ChiNext Index*: 5-day average: 3.5%, percentile: 2.5%[12] - **Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio for Industries**: - *Non-Bank Financials*: 5-day average: 78.5%, percentile: 95.9%[13] - *Steel*: 5-day average: 78.2%, percentile: 43.9%[13] - *Electric Power and Utilities*: 5-day average: 77.6%, percentile: 13.9%[13] - **Net Active Buy Amount Ratio for Industries**: - *Non-Bank Financials*: 5-day average: 6.3%, percentile: 0.8%[13] - *Electric Power and Utilities*: 5-day average: 1.8%, percentile: 1.6%[13] - *Steel*: 5-day average: 1.4%, percentile: 9.4%[13] - **Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio for ETFs**: - Top ETF: *Guotai Zhongzheng A500 ETF (159338.SZ)*: 91.5%, percentile: 20.1%[15] - **Net Active Buy Amount Ratio for ETFs**: - Top ETF: *Guotai SSE 10-Year Treasury Bond ETF (511260.SH)*: 25.9%, percentile: 87.7%[16]

Market Performance Review 2025 - The economic environment gradually stabilized under policy support, with PMI remaining below the growth line, indicating a "weak stabilization" trend [3][8] - PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed, while CPI showed an overall upward recovery, leading to a structural recovery in the economy, particularly in small-cap tech stocks driving a "fast bull" market [3][8] - The transition from "short on stocks, long on bonds" to "long on stocks, short on bonds" reflects a shift in trading logic, with the performance of equity assets improving significantly compared to bonds [9][31] Balance Between New and Traditional Economies - The contribution of the new economy to GDP remains limited, although it is steadily increasing, making it difficult to drive overall growth [3][20] - A style switch occurred post-August, with growth styles accelerating while value styles declined, indicating a divergence in returns between high and low valuation styles [3][20] - The valuation of the tech sector reached 3.95 times, higher than other sectors, suggesting that high valuation tech stocks may struggle to sustain market momentum [3][20] Market Outlook and Strategy for 2026 - The market is expected to be driven by value and quality styles in 2026, similar to the value bull market of 2016-2017, without necessarily requiring high trading volumes [3][19] - The investment logic for 2026 is characterized by "long on beta, short on volatility," with a focus on low-valuation value stocks to capture beta returns [3][19] - The market is entering a stable phase, with a gradual realization of low-valuation assets rather than a short-term surge in high-volatility assets [3][19] Fund Market Dynamics - The public fund market is characterized by a lack of incremental growth, maintaining a stock game due to the absence of new capital inflows [24][27] - Active equity funds show a significant bias towards sectors such as electronics, power equipment and new energy, pharmaceuticals, and communications [27][28] - The trend of excess savings has peaked and is now flowing into the equity market, indicating a shift in investor behavior [28][30]

Market Overview - On December 11, the A-share market opened high but closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3897 points before retreating again[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3873.32 points, down 0.70%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.27% to 13147.39 points[7] - Total trading volume for both markets was 18854 billion yuan, above the median of the last three years[3] Sector Performance - Wind power equipment, grid equipment, aerospace, and medical services sectors performed well, while real estate, textiles, pharmaceuticals, and shipbuilding sectors lagged[3] - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets declined, with notable gains in non-metal materials and wind power equipment[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 16.00 times and 49.52 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years[3] - The current macroeconomic environment is in a mild recovery phase, but the foundation still needs consolidation[3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to consolidate around the 4000-point level, with cyclical and technology sectors likely to perform in rotation[3] - Investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy developments[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy changes, and international relations affecting the economic environment[4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the ChiNext 50 Index is primarily concentrated in the technology growth sector, with the AI industry chain being a key driver of growth [1] - Analysts believe that the explosive demand for computing power is driving an increase in both volume and price for hardware segments such as PCB and CPO, while domestic computing power substitution is accelerating [1] - The energy storage chain benefits from increased AI power consumption, leading to a continuous price recovery for lithium battery materials and energy metals due to improved supply and demand [1] Group 2 - The storage industry is entering a long-term prosperity cycle due to the transfer of high-end capacity and a surge in AI demand, with DRAM and NAND prices increasing by over 50% this year [1] - In the technology sector, applications such as robotics, gaming, and software are gradually releasing performance elasticity as technology is implemented, while export-oriented products like construction machinery maintain high growth due to recovering overseas demand [1] - Overall, the profitability growth rate of the technology growth sector covered by the ChiNext 50 is expected to remain above 30%, supported by both high prosperity trends and pricing logic [1] Group 3 - The ChiNext 50 ETF Guotai (159375) tracks the ChiNext 50 Index (399673), which selects 50 securities with high average daily trading volume from the ChiNext market, reflecting the overall performance of well-known, large-cap, and liquid companies [1] - The ChiNext 50 Index focuses on the technology growth sector, particularly covering emerging industries such as power equipment, new energy, and biomedicine, characterized by outstanding high growth and market elasticity [1]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3900.5 points, down 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.29% to 13316.42 points [1][7] - Among 30 first-level industries, 24 experienced gains, with real estate, consumer services, and retail leading the increases, while banking, computer, electric equipment, and new energy sectors saw significant declines [1][7] - The total trading volume of the A-share market was 1791.6 billion, a decrease from the previous day [1][7] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November increased by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024, while the core CPI rose by 1.2% [8][12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, with a year-on-year decline of 2.2% due to a high base effect [8] - A total of 2435 stocks rose, while 2844 fell, indicating a broad market fluctuation [8] International Market Overview - The U.S. stock market indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones rising by 1.05% and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.67% [2] - Notable gains were seen in Nike, which rose nearly 4%, and Caterpillar, which increased over 3% [2] - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with Canadian Solar gaining over 5% and JinkoSolar increasing by more than 3% [2] Key News - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for China's economic growth to 5% for 2025, up by 0.2 percentage points from previous estimates [11][12] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.5% to 3.75% [14][15] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange confirmed a joint letter with the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to IPO sponsors regarding concerns over the quality of recent listing applications [10]

华金证券指出，电力设备及新能源行业在经历产能扩张、供需失衡后已逐步走出困境，实现供需再平 衡。电池行业呈现利润触底反弹，库存显著回升，资本开支触底反弹且固态电池等新投资方向支撑融资 意愿回升。锂电材料价格企稳回升，动力与储能市场需求旺盛，预计2025-2035年中游材料出货量仍有3 倍以上增长空间；固态电池技术迭代加速，政策推动下有望2027年量产，人形机器人等新兴场景将带动 需求。储能领域市场化交易推进，新型储能装机规模突破100GW，海外AI用电高增进一步刺激需求。 风电行业招标规模景气，风机价格企稳回升，海上风电向深远海发展，漂浮式技术加速落地，预计"十 五五"年均装机增长超80%。行业整体处于盈利修复阶段，细分领域复苏与科技突破（核聚变、固态电 池、AIDC）形成投资主线。 创业板新能源ETF国泰（159387）跟踪的是创新能源指数（399266），单日涨跌幅达20%，该指数从市 场中选取涉及清洁能源生产、储存及应用等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，聚焦可再生能源、电动 汽车、储能技术等前沿领域，以反映具备高成长性和技术创新能力的新能源相关上市公司证券的整体表 现。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the upcoming spring rally is likely to occur earlier than usual due to significant adjustments in November and a late Spring Festival, suggesting a favorable environment for early positioning in December [1][25][39] - Historical data shows that growth-type spring rallies account for nearly 60% of past spring market trends, driven primarily by liquidity easing and technology policy expectations [2][55] - The cyclical spring rally, while less frequent, still holds strong predictive value, with approximately 40% of past rallies characterized by inventory replenishment and inflation expectations [2][60] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that both technology and cyclical sectors can thrive simultaneously, suggesting a dual-driven approach to investment strategies [4][48] - Key sectors for investment include technology (military, media, AI applications) and cyclical industries (solar, chemicals, steel), which are expected to benefit from improving PPI and anti-involution policies [4][60] - The report highlights that the spring rally is not confined to the spring season, as it can be influenced by macroeconomic expectations, liquidity improvements, and institutional behavior [25][34] Group 3 - The report outlines that the spring rally typically features a strong focus on high beta stocks, with significant sector rotation reflecting the market's anticipation of economic trends and policy directions [49][55] - It notes that the performance of growth stocks is particularly sensitive to liquidity conditions and technology policy, making them prime candidates for investment during the spring rally [56][59] - The cyclical rally is characterized by a recovery in resource prices and manufacturing sectors, driven by inventory replenishment and improving economic conditions [60]

- The report introduces a quantitative model based on the "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify investment hotspots. The calculation formula is: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price hits a new high, the distance is 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of fallback [11][19][26] - The model evaluates the effectiveness of momentum and trend-following strategies, referencing studies by George (2004), William O'Neil's CANSLIM framework, and Mark Minervini's "Stock Market Wizard," which emphasize the importance of stocks near their 52-week highs as potential leaders in market uptrends [11][18][21] - A screening method for "stable new high stocks" is introduced, focusing on factors such as analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path smoothness, and sustained new highs. Key metrics include: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months - Relative stock strength: Top 20% in 250-day returns - Price path smoothness: Evaluated using metrics like price displacement ratio - Sustained new highs: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - Trend continuation: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days [26][28][29] - The report identifies 41 "stable new high stocks" based on the above criteria, with the majority belonging to cyclical and manufacturing sectors. Notable industries include non-ferrous metals and machinery [29][30][32] - Backtesting results show that cyclical and manufacturing sectors have the highest number of stocks achieving new highs, with cyclical stocks leading in non-ferrous metals and manufacturing stocks excelling in machinery [19][20][29]