1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Copper - Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly with little change in open interest. Due to the Greenland issue and rising expectations of EU - US tariffs, market risk appetite declined, causing the non - ferrous sector to be weak overall. Copper, with strong macro properties, was resilient due to the strength of gold and silver. In the industrial aspect, under the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, the month - spread continued to weaken, and the 02 - 03 contract closed approaching 300 yuan/ton. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 100,000 yuan mark [6]. Aluminum - Today, Shanghai aluminum weakened in the morning and stabilized in the afternoon with a decline in open interest. The Greenland issue and EU - US tariff expectations led to a decline in market risk appetite and a weak non - ferrous sector. On the industrial side, SMM reported that new electrolytic aluminum production capacities at home and abroad were continuously ramping up, and the daily output was steadily increasing. However, the demand side was suppressed by high aluminum prices, with a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to rise. Continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 24,000 yuan mark [7]. Nickel - Today, Shanghai nickel weakened in the morning, approaching the 140,000 yuan mark at one point, and stabilized in the afternoon. The macro factors of the Greenland issue and EU - US tariff expectations reduced market risk appetite and weakened the non - ferrous sector. In the industrial aspect, the port inventory of nickel ore decreased seasonally from a high level, while the exchange nickel inventory continued to accumulate at a high level. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 140,000 yuan mark [8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics Copper - SMM reported that the LME copper futures price had fallen from its historical high recently, and Goldman Sachs pointed out that the upside space for copper prices might be limited in the near term and predicted a larger decline in the future [10]. Aluminum - Affected by the snowstorm, the bauxite mines in Henan Xin'an area suspended production on the night before yesterday and had gradually resumed work. Due to blocked road transportation, the ore supply decreased by about 80% and was expected to gradually resume shipping tomorrow. SMM would continue to monitor the resumption of production and transportation in the affected mining areas. In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 189,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.8% and a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. In 2025, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 2.547 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%. In December 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 38,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.3% and a year - on - year increase of 194.3%. In 2025, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 298,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 145.7%. In December 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 152,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 61.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. In 2025, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 2.249 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.6% [11]. Nickel - On January 20, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 140,900 - 151,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 146,350 yuan/ton, a 450 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 8,250 yuan/ton, a 400 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 300 - 500 yuan/ton [12]. Relevant Charts Copper - The report provides charts on copper basis, copper month - spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][15][16]. Aluminum - The report includes charts on aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), aluminum rod inventory, Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum month - spread [25][27][33]. Nickel - The report presents charts on nickel basis, nickel month - spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][43][39].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the mixed performance of basic metal futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange during the night session on January 20, with some metals experiencing gains while others saw declines [1][2] Group 2 - Shanghai tin rose by 2.58%, indicating strong demand or market sentiment [1] - Shanghai nickel increased by 1.98%, reflecting positive market trends [1] - Stainless steel saw a rise of 1.44%, suggesting a stable market environment [1] - Shanghai aluminum gained 1.06%, indicating a slight upward trend [1] - Shanghai copper experienced a modest increase of 1.02%, showing resilience in the market [1] - Conversely, Shanghai zinc fell by 0.04%, indicating a slight downturn [1] - Shanghai lead decreased by 0.06%, reflecting a minor decline [1] - Aluminum oxide dropped by 2.18%, suggesting potential oversupply or reduced demand [1]

投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 19 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色高开后震荡运行 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜高开，日内维持窄幅震荡，持仓量变化不大。宏观层 面，欧美关税预期升温，黄金白银上涨很大程度上推动了有色早盘 高开。产业层面，随着铜价下挫，部分产业补库意愿略有升温，但 社库维持累库态势。技术上，关注 10 万关口多空博弈。 沪铝 2026 年 1 月中旬，LME 铜价从 13,000 美元/吨的历史高点回落。花旗 （Citi）分析师指出，13,000 美元是一个关键的"触发价"，已 ...

Core Viewpoint - LME metal futures experienced a widespread decline, with tin leading the drop, while other metals also saw varying degrees of pullback [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of the close, copper was reported at $12,822.5, down $326, a decrease of 2.48% [1] - Aluminum closed at $3,130.5, falling by $41, a decline of 1.29% [1] - Zinc was priced at $3,209, down $104.5, reflecting a drop of 3.15% [1] - Lead ended at $2,038, decreasing by $58.5, a decline of 2.79% [1] - Tin saw the most significant drop, closing at $47,765, down $5,010, a decrease of 9.49% [1] - Nickel was reported at $17,825, down $765, a decline of 4.12% [1]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The recent sharp decline in the lithium carbonate market is a rapid correction of the previous irrational rise, and the short - term sharp rise driven by policy expectations and capital sentiment has ended. In the short term, the price may need time to find a new balance, and attention should be paid to the spot price and social inventory. In the long term, focus on the actual demand fulfillment [34][35]. - The sharp rise in the Shanghai tin market is due to its fragile and concentrated global supply chain. In the short term, there is a risk of a high - level decline, and in the long term, attention should be paid to downstream demand and policy guidance [36][37][38]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: The futures price of the CU2603 contract rose from 92,780 to 100,770, a weekly increase of 8.61%. The spot price increased from 100,590 to 101,780, a weekly increase of 1.18% [4]. - Aluminum: The futures price of the AL2603 contract decreased from 24,385 to 23,925, a weekly decrease of 1.89%. The spot price decreased from 24,020 to 24,010, a weekly decrease of 0.04% [4]. - Zinc: The futures price of the ZN2603 contract rose from 24,015 to 24,750, a weekly increase of 3.06%. The spot price increased from 24,040 to 24,840, a weekly increase of 3.33% [4]. - Lead: The futures price of the PB2603 contract rose from 17,395 to 17,475, a weekly increase of 0.46%. The spot price increased from 17,175 to 17,300, a weekly increase of 0.73% [4]. - Nickel: The futures price of the NI2603 contract rose from 139,220 to 141,590, a weekly increase of 1.70%. The spot price increased from 141,900 to 149,350, a weekly increase of 5.25% [4]. - Alumina: The futures price of the AO2605 contract decreased from 2,843 to 2,751, a weekly decrease of 3.24%. The spot price decreased from 2,710 to 2,690, a weekly decrease of 0.74% [4]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures price of the SI2605 contract decreased from 8,715 to 8,605, a weekly decrease of 1.26%. The spot price remained unchanged at 9,550 [4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price of the LC2605 contract rose from 143,420 to 146,200, a weekly increase of 1.94%. The spot price increased from 139,100 to 156,250, a weekly increase of 12.33% [4]. - Polysilicon: The futures price of the PS2605 contract rose from 53,150 to 57,190, a weekly increase of 7.60%. The spot price increased from 52,300 to 52,400, a weekly increase of 0.19% [4]. 2. Copper Inventory - LME copper inventory increased from 141,000 tons to 141,100 tons, a weekly increase of 0.07%. - COMEX copper inventory increased from 515,000 tons to 538,700 tons, a weekly increase of 4.60%. - SHEF copper inventory increased from 180,500 tons to 213,500 tons, a weekly increase of 18.28% [21]. 3. Copper Concentrate Processing Fee - As of January 16, 2026, the spot TC of copper concentrate was - 46.00 US dollars/ton, remaining unchanged weekly and at a historical low. The spot RC was - 4.6 cents/pound, and the tight supply expectation at the mine end still exists [24]. 4. Lithium Spodumene Concentrate Index - As of January 16, 2026, the latest quote was 1,980 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 100 US dollars/ton [27]. 5. Tin Ore Import Data - In November 2025, China's imports of tin ore and concentrates were 15,099.34 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.40% and a month - on - month increase of 29.81%. Imports from Myanmar were 7,190.21 tons, a month - on - month increase of 203.77% and a year - on - year increase of 133.38%. Imports from Congo (Kinshasa) were 3,225.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.46% [30]. 6. Non - ferrous Metal Demand - In December 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.296 million and 3.272 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and 4.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% and 6.2%. In 2025, cumulative automobile production and sales were 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% [32]. - In December 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.718 million and 1.71 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 8.6% and 6.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.3% and 7.2%. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 52.3% of total vehicle sales [32]. - From January to November, the housing construction area was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. Residential construction area decreased by 10.0%. New housing starts decreased by 20.5%, and residential new starts decreased by 19.9%. Housing completion area decreased by 18.0%, and residential completion area decreased by 20.1% [33]. - As of the end of November, the cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. Solar power generation installed capacity was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%. Wind power installed capacity was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4%. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment from January to November were 2,858 hours, 289 hours lower than the same period last year [33]. 7. Strategy Recommendation Lithium Carbonate - Short - term: After the sharp decline, the price may need time to find a new balance, and attention should be paid to the spot price and social inventory [34][35]. - Long - term: Focus on the actual demand fulfillment [35]. Tin - Short - term: Be vigilant against the risk of a high - level decline [37]. - Long - term: Pay attention to the actual downstream demand and new policy guidance [38].

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw a decline in base metals, with copper prices hitting a one-week low due to rising concerns over demand prospects [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange's main copper contract for March closed down 2.26% at 100,770 yuan per ton, while LME three-month copper fell 1.44% to 12,917 USD per ton, previously reaching a low of 12,774.50 USD [1] - Factors supporting copper prices last year included mining disruptions, supply shortage concerns, and metal flows to the U.S. to counter potential tariffs [1] Group 2 - Other metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also experienced declines, with nickel down 3.99% to 141,350 yuan per ton, aluminum down 2.21% to 23,925 yuan, lead down 0.46% to 17,475 yuan, and zinc down 1.10% to 24,750 yuan [1] - The main tin contract for February on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 6.41% to 405,240 yuan per ton [2] - The LME three-month tin price dropped 4.21% to 49,840 USD per ton, with other metals like aluminum, nickel, lead, and zinc also experiencing declines [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The global metal futures market has started 2026 strongly, with significant inflows into the non-ferrous metal sector driven by supply concerns and capital market dynamics [1] - Prices of copper and nickel have surged due to supply disruptions, with analysts indicating that the sustainability of this price increase will depend on global economic recovery and supply-demand rebalancing [1][2] Group 2: Nickel Market Dynamics - Nickel prices have reached a new high, primarily due to production cuts in Indonesia, the world's largest nickel supplier, which plans to reduce its output target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons, a decrease of 34% [2] - Despite the anticipated demand of 3.82 million tons and production of 4.09 million tons in 2026, the market is currently experiencing a supply surplus, with high inventory levels exerting long-term pressure on prices [2][3] Group 3: Copper Market Dynamics - Copper prices have also reached record highs, with a cumulative increase of over 5% since the beginning of 2026, driven by structural supply shortages and accelerating demand from sectors like electrification and data centers [4] - Events such as strikes at Canadian copper mines and delays in production at other sites have heightened concerns over copper supply [4][5] Group 4: Investment Trends - Significant capital has flowed into the non-ferrous metal sector, with various ETFs seeing substantial net inflows, indicating strong investor interest [7][8] - The domestic market has seen a historical breakthrough in the non-ferrous metal sector, with a 94.73% increase in the sector's A-share market in 2025, and many stocks doubling in value [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that macroeconomic factors, including lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data and geopolitical uncertainties, will continue to support the valuation of the non-ferrous metal sector [8] - The Chinese government's encouragement of mergers and restructuring in key industries like aluminum and copper smelting is expected to enhance industry concentration and pricing power, providing a long-term boost to the sector [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Aluminum: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Alumina: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, with upward driving force but limited operability on the market) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Tin: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, with upward driving force but limited operability on the market) [1] Core Views - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows complex trends, with different metals affected by various factors such as geopolitics, supply and demand, and cost [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Categories Copper - Wednesday saw Shanghai copper increase positions and fluctuate at a high level, with the market competing around 105,000 yuan. SMM spot copper was at 103,915 yuan. Futures warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 27,000 tons to 149,300 tons. Attention is on the impact of the Iran geopolitical situation on precious metals trading sentiment [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rose and then fell again. Spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan were - 80 yuan, - 240 yuan, and 60 yuan respectively. The processing fee of aluminum rods widened to - 200 yuan. Short - term bullish sentiment in precious and non - ferrous metals is still strong. The fundamentals deviate to some extent, and speculation should be cautious. Aluminum smelters can consider selling for hedging. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. The domestic alumina operating capacity remains around 95 million tons, in a state of significant surplus. The average cash cost in Shanxi and Henan has dropped to around 2,600 yuan. The spot price of alumina is under pressure, and short - selling can be considered when the basis is low [2] Zinc - Funds continue to flow into the zinc market, and the capital congestion degree further increases. The high price has an obvious negative feedback on the consumer side, and the divergence between bulls and bears increases. The zinc price has recovered all the declines in 2025, and the callback pressure is gradually increasing. Short positions can be considered above 24,800 yuan/ton, and the support at 23,000 yuan/ton should be watched during the callback [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined, and the market trading was active. The inventory of pure nickel increased by 2,000 tons to 59,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 855,000 tons. The short - term market is dominated by policy sentiment, and downstream buyers can buy at low prices [6] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin hit the daily limit for the second time this week. The spot tin price adjusted to 485,500 yuan, and the warehouse receipts increased by 862 tons to 7,107 tons. High prices suppress demand, while supply remains stable. Short - term attention should be paid to the silver market rhythm, and holding short - call options until expiration can be considered [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate dived and then rebounded during the session. The sales strategy of upstream brine plants is changing. The overall demand maintains strong resilience. The market inventory increased for the first week, but the downstream inventory decreased rapidly. The lithium carbonate futures price is strong, but short - term uncertainty is extremely high [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon maintains a volatile trend, with weak supply and demand fundamentals. The overall spot price of industrial silicon is stalemate, and the futures price follows the volatile trend [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon decreased positions and fluctuated. The price of polysilicon M - type re - feed material is 51,000 - 58,500 yuan/ton. The trading logic of polysilicon has changed, and the market sentiment has significantly cooled down. Participation should be cautious [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of refined zinc in the global market from January to September 2025 was in short supply, with a shortage of 37.37 million tons. The short - term market trend of Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate and strengthen. The Shanghai zinc ZN2603 contract is expected to show an upward trend in a volatile manner [2][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, the global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, and the consumption was 1.2292 million tons, with a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, the global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, and the consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, the global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, indicating a positive fundamental situation [2] 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price was 24,410, and the basis was +130, showing a positive situation [2] 3.3 Inventory Analysis - On January 13, the LME zinc inventory increased by 100 to 106,900 tons compared with the previous day, while on January 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants decreased by 1,728 tons to 33,613 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2] 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, indicating a positive situation [2] 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The main position was net long, but the number of long positions decreased, still showing a positive situation [2] 3.6 Futures Market Quotes - On January 13, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange increased to varying degrees, and the positions of most contracts also changed. Among them, the trading volume of the 2603 contract was 188,273 lots, and the position increased by 9,828 lots [3] 3.7 Spot Market Quotes - On January 13, the prices of 0 zinc in domestic main spot markets such as Guangdong, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Zhejiang all increased. The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was in the range of 24,360 - 24,460 yuan/ton, with an increase of 190 yuan/ton [4] 3.8 Inventory Statistics - From December 31, 2025, to January 12, 2026, the total zinc ingot inventory in the main domestic markets decreased by 0.25 million tons compared with January 5 and decreased by 0.19 million tons compared with January 8 [5] 3.9 Warehouse Receipt Report - On January 13, the total zinc warehouse receipts on the futures exchange decreased by 1,728 to 33,613 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong decreased by 921 tons, and those in Tianjin decreased by 807 tons [7] 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On January 13, the LME zinc inventory was 106,900 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared with the previous day [8] 3.11 Zinc Concentrate Price - On January 13, the prices of zinc concentrates in main domestic cities all increased by 150 yuan/ton [10] 3.12 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On January 13, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from domestic smelters all increased by 190 yuan/ton [13] 3.13 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On January 13, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was mainly in the range of 1,100 - 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the imported processing fee was 50 US dollars/ton [18] 3.14 Member Trading and Position Ranking - On January 13, the total trading volume of zinc futures by members of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 281,993 lots, an increase of 132,954 lots. The total long position was 83,677 lots, an increase of 6,515 lots, and the total short position was 79,995 lots, an increase of 8,376 lots [19] 3.15 Short - term View - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile trend, with increased trading volume and more short - position increases. In the short term, the market may fluctuate repeatedly. Technically, the price was above the long - term moving average with strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator declined but was still in the strong area, and the trend indicator showed that the long - position strength increased and the short - position strength decreased, with the long - position strength having an expanding advantage. It is recommended that the Shanghai zinc ZN2603 contract is expected to fluctuate and strengthen [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by factors such as supply tightness and LME spot strength, with prices expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][3]. - The aluminum market has positive drivers from overseas low - inventory and strong spot supply - demand, and is expected to remain relatively strong [4][6]. - The casting aluminum alloy price is supported by cost and supply disturbances, and is expected to fluctuate slightly upward [8]. - The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, with increased short - term volatility [10][12]. - The zinc price is also expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment, with potential for a significant price increase compared to copper and aluminum [13]. - The tin price is expected to fluctuate according to market risk preference, and it's recommended to wait and see [14][15]. - The nickel price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, and short - term waiting is recommended [16]. - The lithium carbonate price has a high risk of correction, and it's recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach [18][19]. - For alumina, it's recommended to wait and see, and consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [21][22]. - The stainless steel price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend [24][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The LME copper 3M fell slightly by 0.12% to $13,156 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 103,540 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory increased by 4,325 tons to 141,550 tons, and SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.6 to 122,000 tons [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Despite high copper prices suppressing consumption and inventory accumulation pressure in China, the tight supply at the mine end and strong LME spot support copper prices. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 102,000 - 105,200 yuan per ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,900 - $13,400 per ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The LME aluminum closed slightly up 0.16% at $3,196 per ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,780 yuan per ton. SHFE weighted contract positions decreased by 21,000 to 771,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 3,000 to 101,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 to 494,000 tons [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With weak US inflation data, the market sentiment is slightly positive. Although there is inventory accumulation pressure in China, overseas factors and domestic downstream start - up and export expectations are positive for aluminum prices. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 24,400 - 25,000 yuan per ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,160 - $3,230 per ton [6]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the main casting aluminum alloy contract AD2603 fell 0.75% to 23,165 yuan per ton. The weighted contract positions decreased to 27,600 lots, with a trading volume of 31,300 lots. Warehouse receipts decreased by 400 to 68,800 tons. The domestic aluminum alloy inventory decreased by 200 to 43,900 tons [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supported by cost and supply disturbances, and with average demand, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly upward [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: The SHFE lead index fell 0.66% to 17,348 yuan per ton, and the LME lead 3S fell $5.5 to $2,054 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,175 yuan per ton. SHFE lead futures inventory was 21,000 tons, and LME lead inventory was 221,500 tons [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment. The current price is near the upper limit of the long - term oscillation range, and short - term volatility will increase [11][12]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.45% to 24,275 yuan per ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose $21 to $3,202.5 per ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,330 yuan per ton. SHFE zinc futures inventory was 33,600 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 106,800 tons [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment. It has a large potential for price increase compared to copper and aluminum [13]. Tin - **Market Information**: The SHFE tin main contract rose 0.64% to 379,330 yuan per ton. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, but the willingness to start work in Yunnan is insufficient, and Jiangxi's production is low. The SMM tin ingot social inventory decreased by 1,042 tons to 7,478 tons last week [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although demand is weak and supply is expected to improve, the price is expected to fluctuate according to market risk preference. It's recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 310,000 - 370,000 yuan per ton, and for overseas LME tin is $43,000 - $47,000 per ton [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The SHFE nickel main contract fell 3.99% to 138,450 yuan per ton. The spot premium of various brands was strong. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price was also stable [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is still a large surplus pressure on nickel. The increase in inventory restricts price increases, but domestic liquidity support exists. The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Short - term waiting is recommended. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan per ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,500 - $19,000 per ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index rose 6.78% to 163,427 yuan. The LC2605 contract closed up 7% at 166,980 yuan [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is dominated by bullish sentiment, but there is a high risk of correction. It's recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach. The reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 161,600 - 174,000 yuan per ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell 2.86% to 2,772 yuan per ton. The Shandong spot price fell 5 yuan to 2,590 yuan per ton, at a discount to the main contract. Overseas FOB price was stable at $308 per ton, with an import loss of 84 yuan per ton. Futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,400 to 166,600 tons [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Ore prices are expected to decline. The alumina smelting capacity is in surplus, and there are difficulties in continuous rebound. It's recommended to wait and see and consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,450 - 2,950 yuan per ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 13,790 yuan per ton, down 0.47%. Spot prices in some markets increased slightly. Raw material prices rose, and social inventory decreased by 2.97% to 948,300 tons [24][25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. With stable cost support, low supply, and continuous inventory reduction, the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend [25].