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广发早知道:汇总版-20250702
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 01:11
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a mixed trend with different performances across various sectors. In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures show certain resilience, while treasury bond futures are affected by the money - market conditions. Precious metals continue to rebound due to international trade and economic data. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends, and the investment strategies vary accordingly [2][6][8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed a sector rotation. The red - chip sector rebounded, while the TMT sector pulled back. The four major stock index futures contracts had different price movements, and the basis spread widened. The macro situation is improving, but investors should be cautious about chasing high prices. They can lightly sell MO options with an execution price of 5900 in August - September to collect premiums [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the cross - month period, the money - market rate dropped significantly, and treasury bond futures generally rebounded. However, they lack the momentum to break through the previous high. The focus is on whether the money - market rate can further decline, the subsequent fundamental situation, and the central bank's bond trading announcements. Short - term unilateral strategies suggest appropriate allocation of long positions on dips and taking profits near the previous high [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold continues its upward trend due to the US tariff threat and the decline of the US dollar index. The US economic data shows the impact of tariffs on the manufacturing industry, and the labor supply is tightening. The euro - zone inflation rate is stable. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but there are short - term uncertainties. Silver is affected by gold and has a short - term range - bound trend [8][9][12]. Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies are provided, and the container shipping index shows different trends in the European and US routes. The futures market rose yesterday, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1800 - 2000 points. The actual price in August is not likely to drop significantly, and the subsequent price center will move up [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The COMEX - LME spread has widened again, and high copper prices have suppressed downstream purchases. The supply of copper concentrate is limited, and the demand has some resilience, but there are also potential pressures. The copper price is expected to be supported in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 79000 - 81000 [15][17][19]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in a state of slight surplus, and the price is expected to be weak in the medium term. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 2750 - 3100, and investors can consider short - selling on rallies [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The macro environment and low inventory support the price, but the consumption off - season restricts its upward space. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 20000 - 20800 [22][23][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market of aluminum alloy shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 19200 - 20000 [24][25][26]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rebounds due to the weakening of the US dollar, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low. The supply of zinc ore is loose, the demand is weakening, and the inventory provides some support. The long - term strategy is to short on rallies, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21500 - 22500 [27][28][30]. - **Tin**: The tin price is in a high - level range - bound state. The supply is still tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term strategy is to be bullish on dips and short on rallies based on inventory and import data [30][31][33]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is stable but with limited growth. The inventory still exerts pressure on the price. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 116000 - 124000 [33][34][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12300 - 13000 [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures show a wide - range oscillation. The supply is sufficient, the demand is stable but with limited growth, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 58000 - 64000 [39][40][42]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price of steel is slightly stable due to the rumor of production restrictions in Tangshan. The supply is at a high level but shows a slight decline, and the demand is in the off - season with a downward trend. The price of steel is affected by cost and demand expectations. Short - selling operations or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [42][43][44]. - **Iron Ore**: The 09 contract of iron ore may turn weak. The global shipment volume has decreased, the demand is affected by the off - season and the production - restriction policy in Tangshan. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the range of 690 - 720 [45][46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal is strong, and the futures price is oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coking coal [48][50][51]. - **Coke**: The price of coke is close to the bottom. The fourth - round price cut has been implemented, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand will slightly decline. The inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coke [52][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The US soybean market is in a bottom - grinding state, and the support at the bottom is strengthening. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the market is waiting for the determination of the demand trend. Short - term bottom - grinding and long - position opportunities on dips can be focused on [56][57][59]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is oscillating strongly, but the futures price is under pressure due to profit - taking. The secondary fattening inventory is increasing, and the market sentiment is expected to be strong in the short term, but the 09 contract is under pressure [60][61][62]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn is stable, and the import auction has a premium, which supports the futures price. The supply is tight in the long term, and the demand is gradually increasing. The overall trend is upward, but the pace is slow [63][64].
光大期货金融期货日报-20250701
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 03:51
光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报(2025 年 07 月 01 日) 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日,A 股市场继续冲高,Wind 全 A 上涨 0.89%,成交额 1.22 万亿元。中 | | | | 证 1000 指数上涨 1.26%,中证 500 指数上涨 0.88%,沪深 300 指数上涨 0.37%, | | | | 上证 50 指数上涨 0.16%。国防军工板块领涨,TMT 板块走强。美联储主席 | | | | 近日接受国会质询,表示将依据 6 至 7 月数据决定降息路径,同时点阵图也 | | | | 显示美联储内部对于降息意见分歧加大,这都使得市场开始提前计价降息, | | | | 纳斯达克逼近历史高位。A 股同样受到提振,连续两日上涨,但 A 股估值目 | | | | 前处于历史均值以上水平,很难连续大幅冲高。此外,稳定币概念近期火爆, | | | | 稳定币对于跨境交易结算具有较高的便利性,同时也可用作新型储备货币, | | | 股指 | 对于一个国家的金融市场高水平对外开放意义非凡。在 A 股市场缺乏热点 | ...
广发早知道:汇总版-20250627
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 01:24
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall A - share market shows sector rotation, with the index facing resistance above. The futures market also shows corresponding fluctuations, and different investment strategies are recommended according to different varieties [2][3][4]. - The sentiment in the Treasury bond futures market has warmed up, but there are still short - term end - of - quarter disturbances. The bond market is generally expected to be in a pattern of short - term fluctuations but overall strength [5][6]. - The prices of precious metals are dominated by tariffs and macro - policies. Gold and silver show different trends. Gold has a long - term upward trend but faces short - term uncertainties, while silver shows a relatively strong short - term trend [8][10][11]. - The container shipping futures EC shows a volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [12]. - Different metals in the non - ferrous metals sector have different market conditions. For example, copper is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while aluminum oxide is expected to be weak in the medium - long term [13][17]. - In the black metals sector, steel is affected by coking coal supply, iron ore may be stable and strong in the short term, and coking coal and coke have different supply - demand and price trends [41][43][45]. - In the agricultural products sector, meal products follow the decline of US soybeans, and the market trends of different agricultural products such as pigs, corn, sugar, and cotton vary [51][54][57]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, the A - share market opened lower, rose briefly, and then declined in the afternoon. The main stock indexes and the four major stock index futures contracts all adjusted. The basis discount of the four major stock index futures contracts was repaired to some extent [2][3]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third batch of consumer goods replacement funds in July. Overseas, Japan is negotiating tariffs with the US [3]. - **Funding**: On June 26, the A - share trading volume was basically the same as the previous day. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 305.8 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The index has stable support below and needs a driving force to break through above. It is recommended to try to buy the deeply discounted 09 contract of the CSI 1000 on dips and sell the 09 call option near 6300 to form a covered combination [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most Treasury bond futures closed flat, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 305.8 billion yuan. The central bank's attitude towards protecting liquidity is clear, and the end - of - month capital interest rate may fluctuate but is generally controllable [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The end - of - month capital situation still has disturbances, and the bond market is generally cautious. It is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on adjustments, pay attention to economic data and funding trends, and consider positive arbitrage for the TS2509 contract and curve steepening strategies [6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Due to factors such as tariff negotiations and macro - policies, the US dollar index weakened, and the trends of gold and silver diverged. Gold prices declined slightly, while silver prices rose [8][10]. - **Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend but faces short - term uncertainties. It is recommended to try the strategy of double - selling out - of - the - money gold options. Silver shows a relatively strong short - term trend, and its price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of $36 - 37 [10][11]. - **Funding**: The recent stable trends of US stocks and bonds and the strong performance of virtual currencies suppress the prices of precious metals, but the long - position boost has led to a continuous increase in silver ETF holdings [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotation**: The spot prices of different shipping companies are provided [12]. - **Container Shipping Index**: The SCFIS European line index rose, while the US West line index declined. The SCFI composite index declined [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The demand side shows the PMI data of the eurozone and the US [12]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1800, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [12][13]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: The average price of electrolytic copper increased, but the overall trading was inactive [13]. - **Macro**: The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, the dollar index has weakened, and the COMEX - LME spread has widened again, which is beneficial to copper prices [13][14]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the production of refined copper increased in May but is expected to decline slightly in June [15]. - **Demand**: The processing and terminal demand of copper show different trends. The short - term domestic demand has resilience, but the "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [16]. - **Inventory**: COMEX inventory is accumulating, while domestic inventory is slightly decreasing [16]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 78000 - 81000 [17]. Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum oxide decreased [17]. - **Supply**: The production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased in May, and some production capacities are expected to resume production in June [18]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of aluminum oxide decreased, and the total registered warehouse receipts decreased [18]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The supply of aluminum oxide is in a state of slight excess, and it is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices in the medium - long term, with the main contract referring to the range of 2750 - 3100 [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [20]. - **Supply**: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in May, and the aluminum - water ratio remained high. The production capacity is expected to remain high in June [20]. - **Demand**: Downstream industries are in the traditional off - season, and the operating rates of various industries have declined [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory decreased [21]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Aluminum prices are expected to be in a wide - range high - level shock, with the main contract referring to the range of 19800 - 20800 [21]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [21]. - **Supply**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased in May, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly in June [22]. - **Demand**: The demand is under pressure, and the market trading activity has decreased. The impact of the Sino - US economic and trade talks on actual demand has not yet been effective [22]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy has increased significantly [22]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be in a weak shock, with the main contract referring to the range of 19200 - 20000 [23]. Zinc - **Spot**: The average price of zinc ingots increased, but the downstream receiving willingness was low [23]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase in June [24]. - **Demand**: The demand at the initial end is weakening, and the downstream is mainly purchasing on dips [25]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory and LME inventory are both decreasing [25]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Zinc prices are expected to be in a shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 21500 - 23000 [26]. Tin - **Spot**: The price of tin increased, but the market trading was cold [26]. - **Supply**: The import of tin ore increased in May, mainly from Africa, while the supply from Myanmar remained low [27][28]. - **Demand and Inventory**: The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory shows different trends. The LME inventory decreased, while the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [28]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Tin prices are expected to be in a wide - range shock in the short term. It is recommended to short at high prices according to the inflection points of inventory and import data [29]. Nickel - **Spot**: The average price of electrolytic nickel increased [29]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the monthly production is expected to decline slightly [29]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys is stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [30]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory remains high, and the domestic social inventory shows a slight downward trend [30]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Nickel prices are expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 116000 - 124000 [31]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The price of stainless steel increased slightly, and the basis decreased [32]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore is expected to decline, and the price of nickel iron has decreased. The price of chrome ore has weak support [32]. - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel is expected to decrease slightly in June, with an increase in the 300 - series production [33]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory has increased, and the warehouse receipts have decreased [34]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price of stainless steel is expected to be in a weak operation, with the main contract referring to the range of 12300 - 13000 [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the price of lithium hydroxide decreased [36]. - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase in June, and the supply is still sufficient [37]. - **Demand**: The demand is generally stable, but there is pressure in the off - season [37]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has been accumulating in all links [38]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 58000 - 62000 [39]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price remained stable, and the futures price fluctuated slightly [41]. - **Supply**: The production of steel decreased from a high level, and the production of five major steel products increased slightly [41]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased slightly, and the inventory was at a low level and basically balanced [41]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of steel is approaching the accumulation inflection point, with the inventory of rebar decreasing and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increasing slightly [42]. - **View**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for rebar and hot - rolled coil, and also consider selling out - of - the - money call options [42]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: The price of mainstream iron ore powder remained stable [43]. - **Futures**: The iron ore futures contract increased slightly [43]. - **Basis**: The basis of PB powder is 33.7 yuan/ton [43]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production remained at a high level, and the demand for iron ore has certain resilience [43]. - **Supply**: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival volume at ports also increased [43][44]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased [44]. - **View**: Iron ore is expected to be stable and strong in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on dips, with the range referring to 690 - 740 [44]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price increased, and the spot price was weakly stable [45]. - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of coal mines decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [45][46]. - **Demand**: The demand for coking coal increased slightly, and the apparent demand increased [46]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coking coal decreased [46]. - **View**: It is recommended to go long on dips for the coking coal 2509 contract in the short term and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [47][48]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The fourth round of price cuts was implemented [49]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke was negative [49]. - **Supply**: The production of coke decreased slightly [49]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke increased slightly, and the apparent demand increased [50]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke decreased [50]. - **View**: It is recommended to hedge the coke 2509 contract at high prices after the rebound, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [50]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal decreased, and the price of rapeseed meal decreased. The trading volume of rapeseed meal was 300 tons, and the opening rate of rapeseed pressing plants was 17% [51]. - **Fundamentals**: Analysts expect the US soybean inventory and planting area. The export of Brazilian soybeans slowed down, and the soybean harvest in Ukraine is expected to decrease [52]. - **Market Outlook**: The soybean meal price may follow the decline of US soybeans, but the support is expected to gradually strengthen [53]. Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated, with an average price of 14.56 yuan/kg [54]. - **Market Data**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs increased, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening turned negative. The average slaughter weight decreased slightly [55]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot price of pigs is in a shock structure. The short - term futures price may be strong, but there may be a decline risk near the delivery of the 09 contract [56]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The price of corn in Northeast China, North China, and ports remained stable, with a slight increase in the price at Shekou Port [57]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of corn in northern four ports and processing enterprises decreased, and the inventory of feed enterprises decreased slightly [57][58]. - **Market Outlook**: The price of corn may decline slightly in the short term due to auction expectations, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - long term [58]. Sugar - **Market Analysis**: The global sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the price of raw sugar is expected to be in a weak shock. The domestic sugar price is expected to be in a bottom - range shock, with the reference range of 5650 - 5850 [59]. - **Fundamentals**: The sugar production in Brazil increased in May, and the sugar production in Thailand is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. The import of sugar in China increased in May [59][60]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to short on rebounds [59]. Cotton - **Market Analysis**: The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a range shock, and it is necessary to pay attention to the macro and downstream demand [60]. - **Fundamentals**: The cotton planting progress in the US is slightly behind [61].
股指期货日度数据跟踪2025-06-25-20250625
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 06:45
1. Index Trends - On June 24th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.15% to close at 3420.57 points with a trading volume of 544.882 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.68% to close at 10217.63 points with a trading volume of 869.7 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.92% with a trading volume of 303.658 billion yuan, opening at 6082.74, closing at 6194.67, with a daily high of 6194.67 and a low of 6082.74 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.62% with a trading volume of 191.935 billion yuan, opening at 5683.46, closing at 5765.84, with a daily high of 5766.02 and a low of 5683.46 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.16% with a trading volume of 89.075 billion yuan, opening at 2685.85, closing at 2715.92, with a daily high of 2731.18 and a low of 2685.85 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.16% with a trading volume of 89.075 billion yuan, opening at 2685.85, closing at 2715.92, with a daily high of 2731.18 and a low of 2685.85 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 116.45 points from the previous close, with sectors such as power equipment, electronics, and computer significantly contributing to the upward movement [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 91.67 points from the previous close, with electronics, power equipment, and non - banking finance sectors significantly contributing to the upward movement [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 46.13 points from the previous close, with non - banking finance, power equipment, and electronics sectors significantly contributing to the upward movement [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 31.14 points from the previous close, with non - banking finance, banks, and electronics sectors significantly contributing to the upward movement [3]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 55.17, IM01 of - 123.04, IM02 of - 195.3, and IM03 of - 370.85 [12]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 34.93, IC01 of - 80.85, IC02 of - 127.08, and IC03 of - 244.07 [12]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 29.83, IF01 of - 43.83, IF02 of - 50.93, and IF03 of - 81.08 [12]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 31.25, IH01 of - 33.89, IH02 of - 32.68, and IH03 of - 32.81 [12]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, various roll - over point differences and their corresponding annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 [21]. - For IC contracts, various roll - over point differences and their corresponding annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 [23]. - For IF contracts, various roll - over point differences and their corresponding annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 [23]. - For IH contracts, various roll - over point differences and their corresponding annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 [25].
美国利率期货市场预计明年将多次降息
news flash· 2025-06-24 00:26
美国利率期货市场消化的未来两年放松货币政策的步伐快于美联储上周公布的最新预测,在美国对伊朗 发动军事打击给经济增长构成又一威胁后,这种观点得到了巩固。追踪有担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)的 期货交易员押注,美联储在2026年降息的幅度将超过上周三其政策会议结束时公布的预测。 ...
欧股股指期货集体下跌
news flash· 2025-06-23 00:20
Group 1 - European Stoxx 50 futures declined by 0.6% [1] - German DAX futures fell by 0.5% [1] - UK FTSE futures decreased by 0.4% [1]
股指期货日度数据跟踪2025-06-20-20250620
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 06:19
Report Summary 1. Index Performance - On June 19th, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 0.79% to close at 3362.11 points, with a trading volume of 473.259 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.21% to 10051.97 points, trading 777.365 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index decreased by 1.42%, with a trading volume of 270.827 billion yuan, opening at 6127.94 and closing at 6048.22 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index declined by 1.2%, trading 162.658 billion yuan, opening at 5733.81 and closing at 5676.83 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index fell 0.54%, with a trading volume of 64.021 billion yuan, opening at 2678.36 and closing at 2665.52 [1]. 2. Sector Impact on Index - The CSI 1000 dropped 87.17 points, with the Computer and Pharmaceutical Biology sectors significantly dragging it down [2]. - The CSI 500 fell 69.04 points, affected by the Computer, Pharmaceutical Biology, and Non - Banking Finance sectors [2]. - The SSE 300 declined 31.88 points, pulled down by the Power Equipment and Non - Banking Finance sectors [2]. - The SSE 50 dropped 14.4 points, influenced by the Non - Banking Finance and Non - Ferrous Metals sectors [2]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 7.72, IM01 of - 95.26, IM02 of - 258.62, and IM03 of - 437.34 [11]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 6.6, IC01 of - 72.5, IC02 of - 184.11, and IC03 of - 308.25 [11]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 5.07, IF01 of - 47.41, IF02 of - 77.64, and IF03 of - 107.61 [11]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 6.22, IH01 of - 43.57, IH02 of - 45.65, and IH03 of - 47.67 [11]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, various roll - over point differences and their corresponding annualized costs were presented, such as IM00 - 01 having different values at different times [21]. - For IC contracts, similar roll - over point differences and annualized costs were provided, like IC00 - 01 with values changing over time [23]. - For IF contracts, roll - over point differences and annualized costs were detailed, e.g., IF00 - 01 at different time points [23]. - For IH contracts, roll - over point differences and annualized costs were given, such as IH00 - 01 at various times [25]. Core View The report presents the performance of major stock indices on June 19th, including their price changes, trading volumes, and the impact of different sectors on these indices. It also provides data on the basis and roll - over costs of various stock index futures contracts, offering a comprehensive view of the market situation on that day.
广发早知道:汇总版-20250620
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 00:58
广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话:020-88830760 E-Mail:zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录: 金融衍生品: 金融期货: 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属: 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货: 有色金属: 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属: 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品: 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工: 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品: 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 20 日星期五 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292 号 刘珂(投资咨询资格:Z0016336) 电话:020-88818026 邮箱:qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁(投资咨询资格:Z0016628) 电话:020- 88818017 邮箱:yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波(投资咨询资格:Z0010559) 电话:020-81868743 邮箱:zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 本报告中所有观点仅供参考,请务必阅读正文之后的免责声 ...
广发早知道:汇总版-20250619
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 01:00
广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话:020-88830760 E-Mail:zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录: 金融衍生品: 金融期货: 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属: 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货: 有色金属: 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属: 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品: 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工: 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品: 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 19 日星期四 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息: 张晓珍(投资咨询资格:Z0003135) 电话:020- 88818009 邮箱:zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂(投资咨询资格:Z0016336) 电话:020-88818026 邮箱:qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁(投资咨询资格:Z0016628) 电话:020- 88818017 邮箱:yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波(投资咨询资格:Z00 ...
广发早知道:汇总版-20250617
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 01:10
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and closing high, with TMT leading the rebound, while the consumer sector declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose with the index. The current index has stable support below but faces resistance above, and it is recommended to wait and see temporarily [2][3][4]. - The bond market is affected by factors such as economic data and capital conditions. Although the economic data in May is mixed, the short - end of bond futures is relatively strong. The upcoming tax period and cross - quarter capital test will affect the bond market, and it is recommended to allocate long positions on dips [6][7]. - Gold has a long - term upward trend under the background of de - dollarization, but it is affected by factors such as trade negotiations and geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to pay attention to geopolitical situations and consider selling out - of - the - money call options on gold if the price fails to break through the previous high [10]. - The shipping index (European line) futures are expected to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to the 12 - 10 reverse spread opportunity [13]. - For various metals, copper is in a situation of "strong reality + weak expectation" and is expected to fluctuate; zinc is in a long - term supply - loose cycle, and it is recommended to consider shorting on rallies; tin is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to tight supply, and it is recommended to short on rallies based on inventory and import data; nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate within a range; lithium carbonate is expected to run weakly in the short term due to supply pressure and high inventory [18][22][25][28][30]. - For black metals, steel is affected by the Iran - Israel conflict but still has a downward trend; iron ore supply pressure will increase in the short term, and it is recommended to take a short - term bearish view; for coking coal and coke, although the futures have rebounded, the fundamentals are still weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies; silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [35][40][43][47][49][53]. - For agricultural products,粕类is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing up; the pig price is expected to remain volatile with limited upward and downward space; corn is expected to fluctuate at a high level with insufficient upward momentum [56][59][60]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, the A - share market opened low and closed high, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.35%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.66%. TMT led the rebound, while the consumer sector declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose with the index, and the basis discount of the main contracts converged [2][3]. - **News**: The National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for May, showing an increase in social consumer goods retail sales and a slowdown in fixed - asset investment. Overseas, there was a new round of military strikes between Iran and Israel [3][4]. - **Funding**: On June 16, the A - share trading volume decreased by 250 billion yuan compared with the previous day, with a total turnover of 1.22 trillion yuan. The central bank conducted 242 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 68.2 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are - 0.10%, - 0.25%, - 0.20%, and - 0.33% respectively. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and consider selling the July 5800 strike price put options to earn the premium [4]. Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising, while the 5 - year main contract remained flat. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market varied [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 242 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on June 16, with a net investment of 68.2 billion yuan. The short - term capital rate decreased, while the long - term capital rate remained stable [5][6]. - **Fundamentals**: In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year - on - year. The fixed - asset investment from January to May increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and the real estate investment decreased [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The economic data in May is mixed, and the short - end of bond futures is relatively strong. Considering the upcoming tax period and cross - quarter capital test, it is recommended to allocate long positions on dips and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and capital conditions [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals Gold - **Market Review**: International gold prices fell by 1.38% to close at $3384.54 per ounce, ending a three - day upward trend. The market's risk aversion sentiment has eased, and the prices of gold and crude oil have declined [10]. - **Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend under the background of de - dollarization, but it is affected by factors such as trade negotiations and geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to pay attention to geopolitical situations and consider selling out - of - the - money call options on gold if the price fails to break through the previous high [10]. Silver - **Market Review**: International silver prices fluctuated slightly, closing at $36.301 per ounce, up 0.03%. The industrial attributes of silver make its trend relatively independent [10]. - **Outlook**: The improvement of trade relations and the expansion of fiscal and monetary policies in Europe have increased the optimism of the industrial manufacturing industry, which has a certain supporting effect on silver prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the flow of speculative funds and ETFs and consider selling out - of - the - money call options [11]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotation**: As of June 16, the quotes of major shipping companies showed different price ranges [12]. - **Shipping Index**: As of June 16, the SCFIS European line index rose by 4.61%, and the US - West line index rose by 27.18%. As of June 13, the SCFI composite index fell by 6.79% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: As of June 16, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.3% year - on - year. The PMI data of the eurozone and the US in May showed different trends [12]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The futures market fluctuated downward, and it is expected that the price of the 06 contract will decline, driving other contracts to decline. It is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to the 12 - 10 reverse spread opportunity [13]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of June 16, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the downstream procurement sentiment improved after the price decline, but they preferred to purchase after the contract change [14]. - **Macro**: The COMEX - LME premium has stagnated after rising to 10%, and there are different views on its future trend. The conflict between Iran and Israel has not had a significant impact on copper prices [15]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be limited, and the production of electrolytic copper in May increased. It is expected to decline slightly in June [16]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of copper rod processing enterprises showed different trends, and the terminal demand has certain resilience but may face pressure in Q3 [17]. - **Inventory**: COMEX copper inventory increased, while domestic inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: Copper is in a situation of "strong reality + weak expectation" and is expected to fluctuate. The main contract is expected to trade between 77,000 - 80,000 yuan [18]. Zinc - **Spot**: On June 16, the average price of zinc ingots decreased, and the trading was mainly among traders [18]. - **Supply**: The processing fees of zinc concentrate changed little, and the production of zinc concentrate in May increased. The production of refined zinc in May decreased slightly and is expected to increase in June [19][20]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries of zinc increased, but the downstream consumption is entering the off - season, and the purchasing manager index has declined [21]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [21]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: Zinc is in a long - term supply - loose cycle. It is recommended to pay attention to the TC growth rate and downstream demand changes and consider shorting on rallies. The main contract is expected to find support between 21,000 - 21,500 yuan [22]. Tin - **Spot**: On June 16, the price of tin decreased slightly, and the trading was light. The downstream consumption is in the off - season [22]. - **Supply**: The import volume of tin ore and tin ingots in April showed different trends, and the supply of tin ore is expected to be tight [23]. - **Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of solder in April increased, and the inventory of LME and SHFE decreased slightly, while the social inventory increased [23]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: Due to the tight supply of tin ore, tin is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to short on rallies based on inventory and import data [24]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of June 16, the price of electrolytic nickel decreased, and the import premium also decreased [25]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a relatively high level and is expected to decline slightly in June [25]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloy is relatively stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [25]. - **Inventory**: Overseas inventory remains high, and domestic social inventory has a slight downward trend [26]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The nickel market is affected by macro and industrial factors, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The main contract is expected to trade between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan [27]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of June 16, the price of stainless steel remained stable, and the trading was light [28]. - **Raw Materials**: The supply of nickel ore is still tight, and the price of nickel iron is weak, while the price of ferrochrome is relatively stable [28]. - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel in May decreased, and it is expected to decrease slightly in June [29]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased, and futures inventory decreased [29]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The fundamentals of stainless steel are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The main contract is expected to trade between 12,400 - 13,000 yuan [30]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of June 12, the price of lithium carbonate increased slightly, and the trading in the spot market was still relatively light [30]. - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate in May decreased slightly and is expected to increase in June. The supply is still relatively high [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for lithium carbonate is relatively stable, but it may face pressure in the off - season [31]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, and the whole - chain inventory has been increasing in recent weeks [32]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated widely, and the market sentiment is still weak. It is expected to run weakly in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 56,000 - 62,000 yuan [33]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel weakened again, and the basis showed signs of stabilizing and strengthening [35]. - **Supply**: The steel production declined from a high level, with a significant reduction in finished steel products [35]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products continued to decline, and it is affected by factors such as tariffs and the off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of relevant policies on demand [35]. - **Inventory**: The steel inventory is approaching the inflection point of accumulation, with the plate inventory increasing [36]. - **Viewpoint**: The conflict between Iran and Israel has a certain impact on the steel market, but it does not change the domestic supply - loose pattern. It is recommended to short on rallies or sell out - of - the - money call options [37]. Iron Ore - **Spot and Futures**: The price of mainstream iron ore powder increased slightly, and the 09 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated [38]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, and the steel mill profitability rate also declined [38]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, and the arrival volume decreased slightly. It is expected that the arrival volume will remain at a relatively high level in the future [39][40]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory also increased [40]. - **Viewpoint**: The iron ore market is affected by factors such as demand and supply. In the short term, there is pressure on the iron ore price, and it is recommended to take a short - term bearish view on the 09 contract, with the price range expected to be between 720 - 670 yuan [40]. Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures**: The coking coal futures fluctuated upward, while the spot market was weakly stable, showing a divergence between futures and spot [43]. - **Supply**: The domestic coal production decreased slightly due to environmental inspections, and the import coal price continued to decline [43]. - **Demand**: The coking production and downstream pig iron production declined, but the demand still has certain resilience [43]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory continued to accumulate, and the port inventory was at a historical high, while the downstream inventory was at a medium level [43]. - **Strategy**: The spot fundamentals have improved slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies when the price rebounds to 800 - 850 yuan for the 2509 contract and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [45]. Coke - **Spot and Futures**: The coke futures fluctuated upward, while the spot market was weakly stable, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The third - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts [47]. - **Supply**: The coking production decreased due to environmental factors [47]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke decreased slightly, and the downstream pig iron production continued to decline [47]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory decreased, with the coking plant, steel mill, and port inventories all showing a downward trend [47]. - **Strategy**: The spot fundamentals are still loose. It is recommended to short on rallies when the price rebounds to 1380 - 1430 yuan for the 2509 contract and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [47]. Silicon Iron - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of silicon iron increased, and the 09 contract of silicon iron futures rose by 1.93% [48]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of silicon iron production is relatively high, and the profit is negative [48]. - **Supply**: The silicon iron production decreased slightly this week [49]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon iron from five major steel products decreased, and the non - steel demand is also weak [49]. - **Viewpoint**: The silicon iron market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [49]. Manganese Silicon - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of manganese silicon increased, and the 09 contract of manganese silicon futures rose by 1.97% [50]. - **Cost**: The cost of manganese silicon production is relatively high, and the profit is negative [50]. - **Supply**: The manganese silicon production increased slightly this week [51]. - **Demand**: The demand for manganese silicon from five major steel products decreased [52]. - **Viewpoint**: The manganese silicon market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [53]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The spot price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased, and the trading volume also increased [54]. - **Fundamentals**: The US EPA proposed to increase the biofuel blending volume in 2026 and 2027, which affected the price of soybean oil. The soybean processing profit in Brazil decreased, and the EU's soybean import volume increased [54][55]. - **Outlook**: The current operation of US soybeans is mainly affected by policies. The new US soybean crop has a fast planting progress and a high excellent rate, which puts pressure on the price. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal will continue to fluctuate,