Investment Rating - The report highlights a positive investment outlook for the fiberglass industry, emphasizing the confidence shown by leading companies through share buybacks and employee incentive plans [2][12]. Core Insights - The fiberglass industry has been identified as a key focus area, benefiting from global pricing attributes and high external demand, with many small enterprises operating near breakeven [2][12]. - The glass industry, particularly in the photovoltaic and float glass segments, is currently at a low point in terms of market conditions, with prices moving in tandem but lacking clear signs of recovery [2][12]. - Companies like Qibin Group have diversified their business structure, which may provide them with additional performance catalysts compared to other glass companies [2][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - Recent share buyback announcements from China Jushi and Qibin Group are seen as positive signals of confidence in the industry [2][12]. - The fiberglass sector has been highlighted as a focus area since before the interest rate cut in September, with its characteristics aligning well with external demand and price elasticity [2][12]. Cyclical Linkage - The average price of float glass increased to 1224.74 RMB/ton, reflecting a 1.39% rise week-on-week, while the average utilization rate for concrete mixing stations was reported at 7.67% [14][27]. - The fiberglass price remained stable at 3524.75 RMB/ton, with electronic cloth prices also holding steady [14][56]. Market Performance - The construction materials index saw a decline of 1.08% overall, with specific segments like glass manufacturing showing a slight increase of 1.06% [17][21]. - The report indicates that the cement market is experiencing a price increase, with a notable rise in certain regions [27]. Price Changes in Construction Materials - The report notes a significant increase in cement prices, with a rise of 1.5% observed, particularly in regions like Jiangsu and Zhejiang [27][28]. - The float glass market is experiencing a price increase, with a reported average price of 1224.74 RMB/ton, indicating a positive trend in market sentiment [27][38]. Fiberglass Market - The domestic price for 2400tex fiberglass remained stable, with a current average of 3524.75 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.97% [56][59]. - The electronic cloth market also maintained stable pricing, with current rates between 4.1-4.2 RMB/m [56][57].

Report Overview - **Title**: Glass and Soda Ash Weekly Report - **Date**: September 28, 2025 - **Author**: Zhang Chi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Short - term oscillatory market, with a weakening bias in the short - term for single - side trading [2] - Soda Ash: Medium - term oscillatory market [3] 2. Report's Core Views Glass - Short - term, it's an oscillatory market. The market was affected by the denial of production cuts by other industry associations and the approach of the National Day holiday, with weakening support on the futures market. In the medium - term, the high premium of the 01 contract restricts market rise, but the seasonal improvement in the real estate market in the fourth quarter justifies a certain premium. Policy support for anti - involution and anti - deflation should be noted [2]. Soda Ash - It is a medium - term oscillatory market. The high production and high inventory situation persists. Either large - scale production cuts in soda ash or continuous improvement in the glass market can drive a positive feedback. Attention should be paid to the actual improvement in the glass industry and the implementation of anti - involution measures in soda ash [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - There were no water - releasing, ignition, or plate - guiding production lines for float glass during the week, with stable weekly production. As of September 25, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (200,000 tons per day) after excluding zombie lines, including 225 in production and 71 on cold - repair shutdown. The daily output of national float glass was 160,200 tons, the same as on the 18th [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines is 11,680 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of ignited production lines is 13,210 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of potentially new - ignited production lines is 14,790 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of potentially复产 production lines is 10,730 tons; and the total daily melting volume of potentially cold - repaired production lines is 8,100 tons per day [6][7][8][9][11]. - Short - term production reduction space is limited, and capacity is expected to change little in the fourth quarter. The current in - production capacity is about 160,000 tons per day, with a peak of 178,000 tons per day in 2021 [13][14]. Demand - As of September 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.5 days, a 1.0% month - on - month increase and a 2.9% year - on - year increase. Most deep - processing orders in major regions across the country have not improved significantly in September, with most orders being scattered, and the overall profit remaining low [2]. Inventory - As of September 25, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million heavy boxes, a 1.553 - million - heavy - box (2.55%) month - on - month decrease and an 18.56% year - on - year decrease. The inventory days were 25.4 days, 0.6 days less than the previous period. Inventories in North China, Central China, and East China generally decreased [2]. Price and Profit - Transactions were stable, with prices rising by 40 - 80 yuan per ton this week. The price in Shahe was around 1,210 - 1,270 yuan per ton; in Hubei, Central China, it was around 1,180 - 1,240 yuan per ton; and in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, East China, it was around 1,320 - 1,400 yuan per ton. The spot price changed little recently, with the basis and the spread between months strengthening. The profit for petroleum coke was about 61 yuan per ton, and the profits for natural gas and coal fuels were about - 151 and 95 yuan per ton respectively [17][21][26]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - The domestic photovoltaic glass market had good overall transactions, with prices oscillating strongly. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was about 13 yuan per square meter, flat month - on - month; and the mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels was about 20 yuan per square meter, also flat month - on - month [46][48]. Capacity and Inventory - There were little recent changes in capacity, with improved trading and declining inventory. There were 408 in - production photovoltaic glass production lines nationwide, with a total daily melting volume of 89,290 tons per day, flat month - on - month and a 14.28% year - on - year decrease. The sample inventory days were about 14.65 days, a 2.50% month - on - month decrease [50][51][55]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - The production facilities of soda ash enterprises were generally stable with minor adjustments, and the supply increased. This week, the domestic soda ash production was 776,900 tons, a 31,200 - ton (4.19%) week - on - week increase. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 89.12%, a 3.59% week - on - week increase. The current weekly output of heavy soda ash reached 430,000 tons per week [3][62]. Inventory - The inventory of soda ash enterprises was about 1.652 million tons, including 730,000 tons of light soda ash and 922,000 tons of heavy soda ash [64][65]. Price and Profit - The market price changed little. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei were around 1,210 - 1,400 yuan per ton. The basis and the spread between months showed that the near - month contracts were under pressure due to high production and high inventory. The profit for the joint - alkali process in East China (excluding Shandong) was - 77 yuan per ton, and the profit for the ammonia - alkali process in North China was - 37 yuan per ton [74][75][80].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the benefits of the "steady growth plan" released by six departments, focusing on supply optimization in the construction materials industry, with specific recommendations for companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement [1][7] - The report indicates a significant increase in cement prices, with a week-on-week rise of 1.5%, and a positive trend in the glass market, particularly for float glass and photovoltaic glass [2][24][61] - The report notes improvements in housing transactions, with new and second-hand housing sales showing a positive trend in major cities [3][20] Summary by Sections Cement Market - The national cement market price has increased significantly, with a rise of 1.5% week-on-week, driven by demand recovery and price adjustments in various regions [24] - Major regions like Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui have seen price increases ranging from 10 to 70 yuan/ton, while some areas like Fujian and Guizhou experienced price declines [24][41] - The report anticipates continued price increases as companies aim to meet annual growth targets [24] Glass Market - The average price of float glass has risen to 1224.74 yuan/ton, marking a week-on-week increase of 1.39% [61] - The report notes that the production capacity utilization in the float glass industry is at 82.20%, indicating stable supply conditions [61] Housing Transactions - In the 39th week, new housing transaction area in 30 major cities reached 191.15 million square meters, showing a 27.08% increase week-on-week [3][20] - Second-hand housing transactions in 15 monitored cities also improved, with a 6% increase week-on-week [3][20] Recommended Companies - The report recommends companies with strong pricing power and operational resilience, including Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and others in the waterproofing and photovoltaic glass sectors [1][7]

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy is a comprehensive strategy aimed at eliminating inefficiencies and promoting technological upgrades across various industries, particularly in the renewable energy sector, to create a more competitive and high-quality market environment [4][10]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The current "anti-involution" initiative is characterized by a higher strategic positioning, broader coverage, stronger collaboration, and a long-term orientation, moving beyond simple capacity reduction to a nationwide unified market construction [5][10]. - The policy emphasizes breaking local protectionism and unifying institutional rules while expanding both domestic and international openness as prerequisites for industry reform [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The initiative extends its focus from traditional upstream sectors to emerging midstream and downstream industries, including solar energy, lithium batteries, and electric vehicles, indicating a significant expansion in the scope of governance [8][10]. - The governance philosophy has shifted from "total capacity reduction" to "high-quality development and technological upgrades," aiming to eliminate outdated capacities while empowering industries for future growth [9][10]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the renewable energy manufacturing chain, companies with technological iteration capabilities, such as those in solar, silicon materials, glass, and lithium batteries, are expected to emerge as leaders [11]. - Traditional cyclical industries like steel and cement are anticipated to enhance market share and increase the proportion of high-end products through mergers and restructuring [11]. - The resource and materials sectors are encouraged to focus on high-precision development, with industries like chemicals optimizing capacity layouts and shifting towards R&D innovation and quality upgrades [11]. - Emerging service and consumer sectors, such as small appliances and smart home products, are transitioning from price competition to quality enhancement due to regulated competition and increased demand [11].

Market Review - On September 26, the main contract for glass futures expanded its decline, currently reported at 1217.00 CNY/ton, with a decrease of 3.18% [1] Fundamental Summary - Nanbo A announced plans to invest in a new photovoltaic glass production line project in Egypt, with a total planned investment of approximately 1.755 billion CNY for a 1400T/D one-furnace five-line photovoltaic glass and four supporting tempered coating processing lines [2] - On September 26, 2025, the Mexican Ministry of Economy announced the initiation of an anti-dumping investigation against colored float glass imported from China, with the investigation period from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024, and the damage investigation period from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2024 [2] - As of September 25, the domestic float glass industry operated at a capacity utilization rate of 80.08% and an operating rate of 76.01%, remaining stable compared to the previous two weeks, with a daily output of 160,200 tons [2] Institutional Perspectives - New Century Futures reported that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to encourage price increases in the glass industry, leading to a price rise of 100 CNY/ton among glass companies, with some companies in Shahe also following suit [3] - Short-term rapid price increases in the spot market may stimulate pre-holiday inventory replenishment in areas that have not yet raised prices, potentially driving nationwide price increases [3] - Demand from downstream processing plants showed a slight improvement, with order days increasing to 10.5 days, but overall demand growth remains limited [3] - Donghai Futures noted that the recently published "Building Materials Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" by six government departments is expected to positively influence market sentiment [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the spot price of rebar decreased slightly, terminal demand remained weak, and the willingness to replenish inventory before the holiday was low. The black - series led the decline in the commodity market on Friday, and the coking industry association issued a clarification statement in the afternoon. The double - coke continued to fall at night, indicating significant uncertainties in the fundamentals. The real estate sales declined marginally this week, with first - tier cities providing support. The momentum of travel was strong approaching the holiday [1]. - In terms of real estate sales, the transaction area of new homes in 20 cities tracked by Wind increased by 7.58% week - on - week and decreased by 10.63% year - on - year. The transaction area in first - tier cities was significantly stronger than the same period last year, while that in second - tier cities turned negative year - on - year. The sales area of second - hand homes in Beijing and Shanghai was much higher than last year [1]. - In investment and production, most commodity prices rose. The rebar price decreased slightly, with weak terminal demand and low pre - holiday inventory replenishment willingness. The glass futures price increased due to stable supply and improved demand in the peak season, along with positive policy sentiment. The cement price index rose as the traditional peak season deepened, and the asphalt price increased slightly supported by the rebound in oil prices [1]. - In industrial production, the operating rates showed differentiation. The PTA operating rate declined, while the operating rates of automobile tires, coking enterprises, and polyester filament remained basically flat. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills increased slightly, and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt increased significantly [1]. - In consumption, the travel momentum was strong. Subway travel exceeded the seasonal level, and automobile consumption, domestic flights, and movie box - office were in line with the season [1]. - In terms of inflation, the pork price declined, vegetable prices rose, and oil prices increased. The increase in vegetable prices was due to some vegetables entering the end of the harvest season and reduced production after the temperature drop in the north. The rise in crude oil prices was mainly driven by the geopolitical disturbances in Russia and Ukraine [1]. - In exports, the SCFI declined, and the BDI increased. The demand in the transportation market remained unchanged, and the spot - market booking prices continued to fall [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Real Estate Sales: First - Tier Cities Provide Support - New home sales: From September 19th to 25th, the transaction area of new homes in 20 cities tracked by Wind increased by 7.58% week - on - week and decreased by 10.63% year - on - year. First - tier cities' transaction area was significantly stronger than last year, second - tier cities' year - on - year sales turned negative, and third - and fourth - tier cities' sales were weaker than last year and the previous period [1][6]. - Second - hand home sales: The sales area of second - hand homes in Beijing and Shanghai was much higher than last year. Overall, the transaction area of second - hand homes in key cities was basically flat week - on - week, with the year - on - year increase showing a decline. Except for Shenzhen, the transaction areas of other key cities were stronger than the previous period [1][20]. 3.2 Investment: Most Commodity Prices Rose - Rebar: The price decreased slightly. Due to weak terminal demand and low pre - holiday inventory replenishment willingness, merchants focused on reducing inventory. The inventory decreased by 2.75% week - on - week, and the apparent consumption increased by 4.96% [1][5]. - Glass: The futures price increased. The supply output was stable, the demand improved marginally in the peak season, and the policy sentiment of the "Building Materials Industry Stable Growth" was positive. The price increased by 3.71% week - on - week [1][5]. - Cement: The price index rose. As the traditional peak season deepened, enterprises generally raised prices, with a 2.51% increase week - on - week [1][5]. - Asphalt: The price increased slightly. The rebound in oil prices provided price support, with a 0.78% increase week - on - week [1][5]. 3.3 Production: Operating Rates Showed Differentiation - PTA: The operating rate declined, dropping from 77.29% to 76.48% [1][5]. - Automobile tires, coking enterprises, and polyester filament: The operating rates remained basically flat [1]. - Steel mills' blast furnaces: The operating rate increased slightly, rising from 84% to 84.47% [1][5]. - Petroleum asphalt: The operating rate increased significantly, rising from 34.4% to 40.1% [1][5]. 3.4 Consumption: Strong Travel Momentum - Subway travel: It was higher than the seasonal level, although it decreased by 2.54% week - on - week [1][5]. - Automobile consumption, domestic flights, and movie box - office: They were in line with the season. Automobile consumption increased by 7.07% week - on - week, domestic flights decreased by 1.37% week - on - week, and movie box - office increased by 17.00% week - on - week [1][5]. 3.5 Exports: SCFI Declined, BDI Increased - SCFI: It decreased by 6.98% week - on - week, indicating that the demand in the transportation market remained unchanged and the spot - market booking prices continued to fall [1][5]. - BDI: It increased by 2.86% week - on - week [1][5]. - CRB spot index: It decreased slightly by 0.75% week - on - week [1][5]. 3.6 Prices: Pork Price Declined, Vegetable and Oil Prices Rose - Pork: The price decreased slightly, dropping from 19.48 yuan/kg to 19.42 yuan/kg [1][5]. - Vegetables: The price increased, rising by 2.01% week - on - week, due to some vegetables entering the end of the harvest season and reduced production after the temperature drop in the north [1][5]. - Oil: The price increased. The Brent crude oil spot price in the UK rose from $67.15/barrel to $72.09/barrel, mainly driven by geopolitical disturbances in Russia and Ukraine [1][5].

Group 1 - Dongxing Medical plans to acquire 90% stake in Wuhan Yijiaobao, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring. The acquisition aligns with the company's strategic development needs and aims to enhance its competitive strength in the orthopedic and biomedical materials sector [1] - Yonghui Supermarket received a warning letter from Sichuan Securities Regulatory Bureau for failing to timely disclose equity changes after reducing its stake in Hongqi Chain from 11% to 10%. The company will enhance its compliance training and improve information disclosure practices [1] - Xinhua Jin announced that due to non-operational fund occupation by related parties and failure to rectify within one month, its stock will be renamed to ST Xinhua Jin, with a daily price limit of 5%. The outstanding non-operational fund occupation amounts to 406 million yuan [3] Group 2 - Zhongke Lanyun is making forward-looking investments in high-growth areas such as GPU and AI, holding shares in companies like Muxi Integrated Circuit and Moer Thread, with ownership percentages of 0.24% and 0.34% respectively [2] - Yousheng Co. received a project notification from a well-known German automaker for battery tray products, with a total sales amount expected to be approximately 2.3 billion yuan [4] - *ST Songfa's subsidiary signed contracts for the construction of four vessels, with a total value between 400 million to 600 million USD [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as Fed rate - cut expectations, Sino - US trade negotiations, and geopolitical issues. Short - term oil prices are expected to be volatile [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a complex supply - demand situation. With increasing supply and weak pre - holiday demand, the spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [3][4]. - The fuel oil market has different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. High - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from high inventory, while low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and weak demand [5][6]. - The PX & PTA market has a tight balance in the short - term, but the supply is expected to increase in the medium - term, and the price is affected by macro and cost factors [8][9]. - The ethylene glycol market has an expected increase in supply and a weakening demand, with a risk of inventory accumulation [11][12]. - The short - fiber market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, but the processing fee is expected to remain low [13][14]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14][15]. - The pure benzene and styrene market has different supply - demand situations. Pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be volatile; styrene supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure [16][17]. - The propylene market has an increasing supply and weak downstream demand, and the price is recommended to be short - sold on rebounds [19][20]. - The plastic and PP market has a short - term price volatility due to rising oil prices and a medium - term bearish outlook [21][23]. - The PVC market has a large inventory pressure, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak, with a bearish outlook in the short - and medium - term [23][26]. - The caustic soda market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term is weak, and the medium - term is expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28][29]. - The soda ash market is expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [31][32]. - The glass market is expected to be volatile before the holiday, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand [34][36]. - The methanol market has an increasing supply and a high port inventory, and the price rebound is limited [39]. - The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and export [40][41]. - The log market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the price can be slightly long - tried near the integer level [43]. - The pulp market has a high port inventory and weak demand, and the price can be slightly long - bought at the low point of last week [44][46]. - The offset printing paper market has a slight increase in supply and weak demand, and the price of the 01 contract can be short - sold near the lower limit of the spot price [47][48]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market has different trends for different types of rubber, and the trading strategies vary for different contracts [49][51]. - The butadiene rubber market has a decreasing capacity utilization rate, and the price of the 11 - contract can be short - tried [52][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 contract settled at $64.98, down $0.01 (- 0.02%); Brent2511 contract settled at $69.42, up $0.11 (+ 0.16%); SC2511 contract rose 6.6 to 488.9 yuan/barrel, and rose 2.2 to 491.1 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: A new Fed governor called for significant rate cuts, but other colleagues advocated caution. US initial jobless claims decreased, and investors thought it did not support further rate cuts. Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affected oil prices [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Sino - US trade negotiations improved the macro - sentiment, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation increased the risk premium. The short - term oil price is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel; gasoline and diesel crack spreads are weak; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3440 points (+ 0.41%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3386 points (+ 0.39%) at night. The spot price in Shandong, East China, and South China remained stable [3]. - **Related News**: In the Shandong market, rising crude oil prices and reduced rainfall increased demand, but the supply - demand pattern did not change significantly. In the Yangtze River Delta market, pre - holiday project rush increased demand, but low - price resources from some merchants affected the price. In the South China market, typhoon and rainfall affected sales, but the expected reduction in production in October supported the price [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic asphalt plant operating rate increased, the refinery inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The high - level oil price supported the cost, but the pre - holiday demand was weak. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound; the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to be weak; sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 contract closed at 2893 (+ 0.35%) at night, and LU11 closed at 3455 (+ 0.58%) at night. The Singapore paper - cargo market had different month - spreads for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [5]. - **Related News**: The ARA fuel oil inventory decreased, and the Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased. The high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil spot windows had no or few transactions [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: Russian energy facilities were attacked, but the refineries and transportation facilities recovered. The high - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand decreased. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand had no specific driver [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: FU main contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and LU near - month contract is expected to be range - bound with crude oil; consider widening the LU01 - FU01 spread; sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [8]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6674 (+ 72/+ 1.09%) during the day and 6636 (- 38/- 0.57%) at night; TA601 main contract closed at 4678 (+ 52/+ 1.12%) during the day and 4652 (- 26/- 0.56%) at night. The PX spot price increased, and the PTA basis was stable [8]. - **Related News**: The PTA and polyester operating rates changed. The PTA production and sales increased [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PX supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The PTA supply is expected to increase slightly in October, and the demand is expected to be stable. The price is affected by macro and cost factors [9][10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to rising oil prices and market sentiment, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [10]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4246 (+ 12/+ 0.28%) and 4224 (- 22/- 0.52%) at night. The spot basis was stable [10][11]. - **Related News**: The ethylene glycol production and sales changed, and the operating rate decreased [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase due to planned maintenance and new device commissioning, and the demand is expected to be weak. The market is expected to be loose, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [12]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weak and volatile; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [12]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2511 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 76/+ 1.21%) during the day and 6326 (- 46/- 0.72%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [12][13]. - **Related News**: The polyester production and sales increased, and the terminal operating rate increased [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber processing fee fluctuated narrowly. The raw material price increase and terminal operating rate increase promoted inventory reduction, but the terminal cash flow was in deficit, and the processing fee was expected to remain low [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [14]. PR (Bottle - Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5840 (+ 56/+ 0.97%) and 5808 (- 32/- 0.55%) at night. The spot market had a good trading atmosphere [14]. - **Related News**: The bottle - chip factory export price increased slightly [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream terminal bid for next - year's first - quarter orders, a bottle - chip device was under maintenance, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory was expected to decrease, and the processing fee was expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5922 (+ 15/+ 0.25%) during the day and 5894 (- 28/- 0.47%) at night; EB2511 main contract closed at 6958 (+ 30/+ 0.43%) during the day and 6927 (- 31/- 0.45%) at night. The pure benzene spot price increased slightly, and the styrene port inventory increased [16]. - **Related News**: The pure benzene and styrene production and sales and operating rates changed [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The styrene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease. The price is affected by inventory and downstream demand [17][18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to geopolitical and macro factors, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; long pure benzene and short styrene in arbitrage; options are on hold [18]. Propylene - **Market Review**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 15/+ 0.24%) and 6371 (- 1/- 0.02%) at night. The spot price in different regions remained stable [18][19]. - **Related News**: The domestic propylene operating rate increased [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: The propane market entered the peak season, and the demand for PDH devices was expected to increase. The propylene supply increased due to device restart, and the market was loose. The downstream product profit was poor, and the load increase was limited [19][20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is recommended to short - sell on rebounds; arbitrage is on hold; sell put options [21]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The LLDPE market price partially weakened, and the PP spot price in different regions was stable or slightly changed. The linear futures increased slightly [21]. - **Related News**: The PE and PP maintenance ratios decreased, and the operating rates changed. The downstream industry operating rates increased slightly [21][22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand was in the peak season, and the pre - holiday inventory was concerned. The supply was expected to increase due to reduced maintenance and new device commissioning. The near - term cost increase supported the price, and the medium - term price was recommended to be short - sold on highs [23]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be volatile, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC spot price was strong and volatile, and the futures price was also strong and volatile. The trading was light [23]. - **Related News**: The PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, the预售 volume increased slightly, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory increased [24][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PVC inventory was at a high level, and the supply was expected to increase due to new device commissioning. The demand was weak due to the real - estate market weakness, and the export was expected to decrease. The short - and medium - term outlook was bearish [26]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is bearish in the short - and medium - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [26]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price in different regions remained stable [26]. - **Related News**: The caustic soda production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory increased [28]. - **Logic Analysis**: The caustic soda market was in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term was affected by inventory and price reduction, and the medium - term was expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term is weak, and medium - term is long after a sufficient correction; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 01 contract closed at 1315 yuan (+ 8/+ 0.6%) during the day and 1306 yuan (- 9/- 0.7%) at night. The spot price in different regions changed slightly [29][31]. - **Related News**: The soda ash production, inventory, and profit changed. The market was weak and stable [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash supply was at a high level, and the demand was stable. The price was affected by inventory, downstream demand, and policy. The price was expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday [32]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [32][34]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 01 contract closed at 1270 yuan (+ 33/+ 2.67%) and 1264 yuan (- 6/- 0.47%) at night. The spot price in different regions increased [34][35]. - **Related News**: The glass production, inventory, and profit changed. The market trading atmosphere was good [34][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass production increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price was affected by production, inventory, and demand. The price was expected to be volatile before the holiday [36]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile before the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [36][37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2341 (- 16/- 0.68%). The spot price in different regions was stable [38]. - **Related News**: The methanol production increased, and the device capacity utilization rate increased [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international device operating rate decreased, and the import recovered. The domestic supply was loose due to the end of autumn maintenance. The port inventory increased rapidly. The price rebound was limited due to supply and inventory [39]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stop loss on short positions; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1674 (+ 1/+ 0.06%). The spot price was stable with small changes [40]. - **Related News**: The urea production and operating rate changed [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The urea supply was loose, and the demand was weak. The export had a certain

Core Viewpoint - The China Minmetals Import and Export Chamber of Commerce supports the Ministry of Commerce's investigation into Mexico's trade barriers against Chinese imports, which could significantly impact Chinese industries due to increased tariffs on key imported goods [1] Group 1: Tariff Changes - On September 10, 2025, the Mexican government announced plans to raise tariffs on key imported goods from countries without trade agreements, with some tariffs reaching as high as 50% [1] - The affected goods include automobiles, textiles, clothing, plastics, steel, electrical products, aluminum, toys, furniture, footwear, leather products, paper and cardboard, motorcycles, trailers, and glass [1] Group 2: Impact on Chinese Industries - As the largest source of imports to Mexico, Chinese industries are expected to face severe impacts from the tariff increases [1] - The China Minmetals Import and Export Chamber of Commerce represents industries such as steel, aluminum, plastics, and glass, and is calling for affected parties to participate in the investigation [1] Group 3: Government Response - On September 25, the Ministry of Commerce of China announced the initiation of a trade barrier investigation in response to Mexico's restrictions [1] - The Chamber urges domestic industries and member enterprises to actively support the investigation and necessary measures to protect the legitimate rights of Chinese companies [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar, and buy on dips for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Wait or buy on dips for copper, buy on dips after pullbacks for aluminum, wait or short on rallies for nickel, conduct range trading for tin, silver, and gold [1][10][11][16] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage for soda ash; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1][20][22][24] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to fluctuate; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33][35] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; corn is expected to have wide - range fluctuations; soybean meal is expected to have range fluctuations; oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][37][41][44] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macro - economic policies, and international events. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, supply disruptions and macro - economic uncertainties affect prices; in the energy and chemicals sector, factors like production capacity, demand, and cost determine the market trends [10][20][33] Summary by Categories Macro - finance - **Stock indices**: A - share market showed differentiation on Thursday. Growth sectors were relatively strong. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and is long - term bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury bonds**: The interest - rate bond market had wide - range fluctuations on Thursday. After a panic - driven sell - off, it may enter a short - term bottom - building phase. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal and coking**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a price increase in the coal industry. It is recommended to conduct range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price had narrow - range fluctuations on Thursday. The short - term situation is a combination of weak industry fundamentals and strong macro - factors. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the RB2601 contract focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range [7] - **Glass**: The spot price increase of glass manufacturers has stimulated the market. Supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the 01 contract focusing on the 1160 - 1200 support level [8] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Supply disruptions and the approaching holiday stocking period may support copper prices. It is recommended to wait or buy on dips for short - term trading [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing. Demand is entering the peak season, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to buy on dips after pullbacks and consider a short AD and long AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel is in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [16] - **Tin**: Supply improvement is limited, and downstream consumption is warming up. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the SHFE tin 10 - contract focusing on the 26.5 - 28 million yuan/ton range [16] - **Silver and gold**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, precious metal prices are expected to have support. It is recommended to conduct range trading [17] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: High supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic soda**: Considering downstream restocking and future alumina production expectations, it is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2450 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: Weak supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate, focusing on the 6700 - 7100 range [24] - **Rubber**: Affected by factors such as typhoons and pre - holiday sentiment, it is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation, focusing on the 15500 support level [26] - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, and agricultural demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 - contract's 1600 - 1630 support level and the 1 - 5 spread positive - arbitrage opportunity [27] - **Methanol**: Supply is decreasing, and demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: Supply and demand are both changing. It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7100 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6800 - 7200 range [28] - **Soda ash**: Affected by glass price increases and production capacity changes, it is recommended to conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [31] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation is changing. The spot market is strong, but there is downward pressure on prices in the future. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33] - **PTA**: Affected by factors such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and supply - demand changes, it is expected to have range fluctuations, focusing on the 4550 - 4800 range [33] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [35] - **Jujubes**: The market is currently quiet. It is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation and then a rebound [35] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: Supply is large, and prices are under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11, 01, and 03 contracts, and be cautious when bottom - fishing for the 05 and 07 contracts. Also, pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: Short - term pre - holiday demand is weakening, and long - term supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and be cautious when shorting the 12 and 01 contracts [39][40] - **Corn**: New crop supply will ease the tight supply of old crops. It is recommended to take a short - side approach, wait for a rebound to short lightly, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse - arbitrage [41][43] - **Soybean meal**: Supply is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and hold on dips, focusing on the 2900 support level of the M2601 contract [43] - **Oils**: After the tariff event's negative impact is over, oils are expected to stop falling and rebound. It is recommended to take a long - on - dips approach and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [44][50]