Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 200.0 HKD per share [3][11]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on two historical strategic opportunities: cloud computing and AI, with a strong commitment to increasing investments in these areas. The revenue from cloud services reached 334.0 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year growth of 25.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1 percentage points [7][11]. - The integration of the original Taotian Group and the local life group into the China e-commerce group reflects the company's strategy to concentrate on consumer-facing e-commerce and instant retail, as well as AI and cloud services [7][11]. - The company has seen significant improvements in its two main business lines, with AI cloud revenue contributing over 20% to external revenue and experiencing triple-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters [7][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 10049 billion CNY, 11256 billion CNY, and 12129 billion CNY for FY2026-2028, with adjusted net profits of 1405 billion CNY, 1866 billion CNY, and 2091 billion CNY respectively [8][11]. - The company reported a CMR of 892.5 billion CNY for FY26Q1, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, driven by commission adjustments and AI-driven improvements in site penetration [7][12]. Business Segments - The cloud business is expected to continue its rapid growth, with capital expenditures reaching 387.6 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 219.8% [7][11]. - The food delivery segment has shown high operational efficiency, with monthly active users exceeding 300 million and weekly orders maintaining above 80 million, indicating a narrowing gap with competitors [7][11]. Valuation - The report estimates the company's market value at 34772 billion CNY, corresponding to a per-share value of 200.00 HKD, based on a comprehensive valuation of its various business segments [8][22].

Market Performance - A-shares continued strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 3879.05 points during the session, closing at 3862.65 points, up 0.12% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.11% and 0.55%, respectively [1] Gold Market - The precious metals sector saw significant gains, with international gold prices reaching new highs; COMEX gold futures peaked at $3552 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of approximately 35% [4][5] - London spot gold prices also rose, reaching $3486.16 per ounce, just shy of the historical high of $3500 from April 22 [5] - Domestic gold futures in China saw a rise of over 2%, hitting a new high of 802 yuan per gram [5] - Major stocks in the gold sector, such as Western Gold and Xiaocheng Technology, saw substantial increases, with Western Gold hitting the daily limit [5][6] AI Computing Sector - The AI computing sector exhibited mixed performance; stocks like Xuanji Information and Liyang Chip reached daily limits, while Cambrian Technology experienced a decline of nearly 3% [3][9] - Cambrian Technology's stock fluctuated significantly, dropping over 8% at one point but stabilizing to a decrease of 2.98% by midday [11] - Reports indicated that Alibaba's procurement rumors regarding Cambrian Technology were unfounded, but the company continues to advance its AI chip development [13] Alibaba's Market Activity - Alibaba's stock surged over 16% in Hong Kong, with a market capitalization increase of approximately 400 billion HKD, reaching a total market value of 2.59 trillion HKD [14] - The company reported a revenue of 247.65 billion yuan for Q1 of the 2026 fiscal year, with a net profit of 43.12 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 76% [16] - Alibaba's investment in AI and cloud infrastructure reached 38.6 billion yuan, a 220% increase year-on-year, indicating a strong commitment to expanding its AI capabilities [16] Innovative Drug Sector - The innovative drug sector saw significant activity, with stocks like MicroPort Medical rising over 14% and achieving a year-to-date increase of over 109% [17] - The approval of 43 innovative drugs in the first half of the year, a 59% increase year-on-year, highlights the growing focus on drug development in China [17] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index has seen a year-to-date increase of over 101%, reflecting strong investor interest in the pharmaceutical sector [17]

【导读】贵金属、创新药引爆行情，迈威生物 20cm 封板 中国基金报记者 晨曦 大家好！ 9 月的第一个交易日，来一起关注上午的市场行情和最新资讯。 9 月 1 日上午， A 股市场反复震荡。截至午间收盘，上证指数涨 0.12% ，深证成指涨 0.11% ，创业板指涨 0.55% 。 | www.bounce 3862.65 | . | was were works 2906.03 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 +0.12% | 深证成指 +0.11% | 创业板指 +0.55% | 全市场半日成交额为 1.85 万亿元，较上日略有缩量，全市场超 3100 只个股上涨。 成交额方面，寒武纪成交额继续登顶，半日成交额达 186 亿元；新易盛、中际旭创、东方财 富等近期热门股成交额均超过 100 亿元。 | 序号 代码 | 名称 | 现价 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = | 688256 寒武纪-U 1447.98 -44.51 | | -2.98% | 186.07亿 | | വ | 300502 新易盛 ...

Group 1 - Alibaba Cloud denies rumors of purchasing 150,000 GPUs from Cambricon, confirming support for domestic supply chains [2] - Huawei's rotating chairman states that the HarmonyOS ecosystem has made significant progress, with major internet applications now compatible and widespread use in various industries [6] - China Telecom and Alibaba signed a strategic cooperation agreement to collaborate on cloud and AI infrastructure, new service industries, and digital solutions for Chinese enterprises going global [6] Group 2 - New national standards for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1, requiring improvements in braking performance and limiting the weight of lithium battery models to 55 kg [8] - Guangzhou has suspended the implementation of the automobile replacement subsidy policy, effective from August 30, 2025, while the new energy vehicle market continues to show high growth [9] - The semi-annual performance report indicates that the new energy vehicle sector has seen over 30% growth in net profits, with significant increases in revenue across various industries [9]

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，目前阿里巴巴-W(09988,BABA.US)港股和美股交易于16/18倍 FY26和13/15倍FY27非通用准则市盈率。下调FY26收入3%至10,683亿元，系高鑫零售和银泰出表影 响，下调FY26非通用准则归母净利润29%至1,218亿元，主要系淘宝闪购投入加大;该行引入FY27收入和 利润预测12,151亿元和1,493亿元，将阿里估值切换为分部估值并将估值切换至FY27，基于电商业务13x P/E和云计算业务3.5x P/S，主要由于电商和云业务均已独立盈利和估值中枢调整，对应美股和港股目标 价151美元和147港币，较前次目标价上调35%，维持跑赢行业评级，较目前港股和美股股价有27%和 12%的上行空间。 淘宝闪购单量流量齐升，预计7月为亏损峰值 25年8月即时零售月活跃买家达3亿，淘宝月活跃买家同增25%，日均订单达8,000万单，实现用户规模 和用户认知建设目标。从经营效率看，短期闪购UE亏损较大，该行预计7月为UE亏损峰值，随后通过 运力优化、效率提升、用户和订单结构优化， UE逐月改善，9月以后UE亏损有望较7月收窄一半，该行 测算1QFY26和2Q ...

中国 证券研究 2025 年 8 月 31 日 阿里巴巴 (BABA US & 9988 HK) 打造明天：通往效率、协同效应和长期价值的清晰路线 图 阿里巴巴截至 2025 年 6 月的季度业绩增强了我们对其中长期盈利前景的信 心。我们预计精简化运营、强大的财务资源以及明确的闪购和云战略将带来 可持续的两位数盈利增长。虽然短期利润面临来自闪购投资的压力，但我们 认为增效和生态系统协同效应料将支持更强劲的长期走势。我们将 2026 财 年调整后每股收益下调 13%，将 2027 财年调整后每股收益上调 6%。维持 "增持"评级，截至 2026 年 6 月的目标价 170 美元/165 港元基于 12 倍 2027 日历年预期市盈率。 证券研究报告 中国证券研究主管及亚洲 TMT 研究联 席主管 证券分析师: 姚橙 AC (86 21) 6106 6505 alex.yao@jpmorgan.com 登记编号: S1730523020001 证券分析师: 张致竑, CFA (86-21) 6106 6362 andre.ch.chang@jpmorgan.com 登记编号: S1730520080002 证券分 ...

Core Insights - The stock market is not a strict zero-sum game; it is fundamentally linked to economic growth and corporate profitability, allowing for potential mutual benefits among investors over the long term [3][23] - Stock price increases can be attributed to two main categories: genuine corporate value growth and speculative market behavior [3][6] Group 1: Genuine Corporate Value Growth - Companies with strong profitability and consistent performance, such as Apple, see their stock prices rise due to real value creation, benefiting long-term shareholders [4][23] - Apple's stock has increased hundreds of times over the past two decades, driven by substantial cash flow from its product ecosystem [4] - The rise in stock prices reflects the wealth generated by the company being distributed among its investors [3] Group 2: Speculative Market Behavior - Companies lacking strong competitive advantages may experience stock price increases driven by market speculation, leading to a cycle of rapid price increases followed by significant declines [6][9] - The GameStop case illustrates how speculative trading can lead to massive price swings, benefiting early investors while later entrants may incur substantial losses [7][9] Group 3: Industry Trends and Structural Opportunities - Stock price increases can also result from favorable industry trends, where companies capitalize on rapid market expansion [10][11] - Netflix's stock growth from 2007 to 2020 was fueled by the explosive growth of the streaming industry, reflecting market share gains rather than just company performance [11] Group 4: Policy and Macro Environment - Stock price increases can be driven by favorable policies or macroeconomic trends, as seen with Tesla, where government incentives for electric vehicles significantly boosted demand and stock prices [12][13] Group 5: Market Expectations and Future Growth Potential - Companies with average short-term performance may see stock price increases based on market expectations of future growth, as demonstrated by Amazon's early stock performance despite initial losses [16][17] Group 6: Structural Changes and Innovation - Stock price increases can also stem from strategic changes, product innovations, or technological advancements, as evidenced by Nvidia's stock growth driven by AI and data center demand [18][19] Group 7: Mergers, Restructuring, and Asset Value Release - Companies can unlock potential value through mergers, asset sales, or strategic restructuring, leading to stock price increases, as seen with Disney's acquisition of 21st Century Fox [21]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is currently facing resistance at 26,000 points, influenced by the extension of the US-China tariff truce and a stable economic outlook in mainland China [2] - The US Federal Reserve's Chairman Powell indicated a potential adjustment in policy stance due to changing risk balances, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts [4] - The overall market activity in Hong Kong remains active with a positive risk appetite, as funds rotate across different sectors [2] Company News - Alibaba (9988) has made significant historical investments in AI and flash sales, focusing on growth rather than short-term profit margins [10] - BYD (1211) reported a mid-year net profit of 15.511 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 13.8% year-on-year, with total revenue increasing by 23.3% [10] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398) saw a slight decline in mid-year profit by 1%, with a marginal decrease in the non-performing loan ratio [10] - China Construction Bank (0939) also reported a 1% drop in mid-year profit, with a similar trend in non-performing loans [10] - GAC Group (2238) experienced a mid-year loss of 2.538 billion RMB, a significant shift from a profit of 1.516 billion RMB in the same period last year [10] Economic Indicators - The non-manufacturing PMI in mainland China rose to 50.3 in August, slightly above expectations, indicating continued expansion in the sector [7][8] - The State Development and Reform Commission plans to address issues of disorderly competition and internal strife in various sectors [8] - The net profit of state-owned enterprises in China decreased by 3.3% in the first seven months of the year, totaling 2.48 trillion RMB [8] Sector Focus - The smartphone components sector is entering a traditional peak season with major brands set to launch new devices [7] - The smart glasses market is expected to see new product launches from companies like HTC and Meta in September [7] - The push for "AI+" applications is accelerating in mainland China, particularly in humanoid robotics [7]

Market Overview - A-shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37% to 3,857 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.99% and the ChiNext Index rose by 2.23%[14] - The U.S. PCE index for July showed a larger-than-expected increase, leading to a decrease in rate cut expectations and a drop in U.S. stock indices, with the Dow Jones down 0.2% and the Nasdaq down 1.2%[8][25] - European markets declined due to geopolitical tensions and political uncertainties in France, with the Stoxx 600 index falling by 0.64%[8][10] Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI for August was 49.4, a slight increase of 0.1 from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, up 0.2[4] - The U.S. core PCE inflation rate increased from 2.8% in June to 2.9% in July, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[8][25] - India's GDP growth for Q1 2026 was reported at 7.8%, exceeding expectations, driven by investment and fiscal spending[21] Sector Performance - In the U.S. market, six out of eleven sectors in the S&P 500 saw gains, with the healthcare sector leading at a 0.73% increase, while the information technology sector fell by 1.63%[8] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.32%, with significant gains in healthcare and materials sectors, while semiconductor stocks faced declines[10] - The semiconductor sector in A-shares experienced a pullback, with stocks like Hengxuan Technology dropping by 7.8%[14] Commodity and Currency Trends - Gold prices increased, nearing historical highs, amid rising geopolitical tensions and legal disputes surrounding the Federal Reserve[25] - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 0.9% to $64.01 per barrel, and Brent crude down 0.7% to $68.12 per barrel[25] - The U.S. dollar index remained stable at 97.77, with the dollar appreciating against the yuan and the euro[23]

Group 1 - The State Administration of Radio and Television has issued measures to enrich TV content, easing film review processes and encouraging content innovation, which is expected to boost the film and television sector, benefiting companies like Mango Excellent Media and Huace Film & TV [1][2] - Kuaishou's e-commerce revenue is accelerating, and it has raised its full-year revenue guidance, while Bilibili's advertising growth reached 30%, indicating strong growth in value-added services (VAS) and enhancing profit expectations for the media industry [1] - Institutional estimates show a significant increase in incremental capital for 2023, with inflows from individual investors and insurance funds potentially supporting the media sector [1] Group 2 - GF Securities highlights that the new policy from the State Administration of Radio and Television is expected to stimulate content production that better meets user demands, indicating a potential recovery point for the film and television industry, with a focus on companies like Huace Film & TV and Huanrui Century [2] - Wanlian Securities notes a record high in game license approvals in August, with key products from Tencent and Bilibili receiving approval, maintaining a "stronger than the market" rating for the media industry, reflecting improved regulatory conditions [2]