1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mainstream transaction price of bauxite in Guinea decreased by $0.4 per dry ton to $72.5 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite mining and transportation, leading to a decline in bauxite shipments, which supports the ore price. However, market rumors of the resumption of a large mine in Guinea may reverse the expected structural shortage of imported ore supply in the third quarter, so the upward range of the ore price is expected to be limited [3][10]. - The operating capacity of alumina increased by 1.1 million tons week - on - week to 94.95 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 19,000 tons week - on - week to 3.207 million tons. With the gradual resumption of production of reduced - capacity and the release of new capacity, the operating capacity of alumina is gradually recovering. Bullish sentiment has cooled, and alumina may face an adjustment [3][14]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons to 44.214 million tons. Some remaining capacity in Guizhou Anshun is being resumed, the replacement capacity of Yunlv Yixin is being put into production, and the technical renovation project of Baise Yinhai is gradually resuming production. The downstream demand of aluminum is weakening, with the weekly average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreasing by 0.1% to 58.8%. The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased, while the inventory of aluminum rods increased [3]. - In the case of recycled cast aluminum alloy, downstream enterprises are gradually entering the high - temperature holiday, with insufficient new orders. High scrap aluminum prices and a sharp increase in industrial silicon prices have led to great loss pressure on enterprises, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum enterprises will continue the downward trend [3]. - The short - term risk of aluminum prices is still high, and it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to market changes. The Fed's interest - rate meeting and the China - US London talks are about to take place, and attention should be paid to the meeting results and negotiation outcomes [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Strategy Suggestions - Alumina: It is recommended to lay out short positions at high levels when the price rebounds [4]. - Shanghai Aluminum: It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.2. Bauxite - The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening, and the price is temporarily stable. Stricter safety production supervision and environmental inspections in Shanxi and Henan have restricted bauxite mining activities, and some mines have suspended production. Frequent rainfall in major domestic producing areas has also restricted ore mining [10]. - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite decreased by $0.4 per dry ton to $72.5 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite mining and transportation, and the bauxite shipment volume has shown a downward trend. The expected tightening of spot supply supports the upward movement of the ore price, but the expected structural shortage of imported ore supply in the third quarter may be reversed, so the upward range of the ore price is limited [3][10]. 3.3. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity of alumina was 113.02 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 100,000 tons, the operating capacity was 94.95 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.1 million tons, and the operating rate was 84.01%. The domestic spot weighted price was 3,257 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week increase of 37.9 yuan per ton. The national alumina inventory was 3.207 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 19,000 tons [14]. - Newly invested capacity in Shandong, Guangxi, and other regions is gradually contributing to alumina production. A medium - sized alumina enterprise in Shandong has expanded and upgraded its capacity, and it is expected to reach full production this week. Although a red mud reservoir in a south - western alumina enterprise has a landslide risk due to heavy rain, the current production has not been affected [14]. 3.4. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.232 million tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 44.214 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [23]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily. Some remaining capacity in Guizhou Anshun is being resumed, the replacement capacity of Yunlv Yixin is being put into production, contributing a net increase of 35,000 tons of capacity, and the 120,000 - ton capacity of the Baise Yinhai technical renovation project will be gradually powered on and resumed production in the third quarter [3][23]. 3.5. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises decreased by 0.3% week - on - week to 53.1%. Downstream enterprises are gradually entering the high - temperature holiday, with insufficient new orders. High scrap aluminum prices and a sharp increase in industrial silicon prices have led to great loss pressure on enterprises, and the operating rate will continue the downward trend. However, recent concentrated shipments from delivery brand enterprises to spot - futures traders support the operating rate to remain relatively high in the off - season [34]. 3.6. Downstream开工率 - The weekly average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.1% to 58.7%. - Aluminum profiles: The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises remained stable at 50.5% week - on - week. In the industrial profile segment, the operating rate remained unchanged. In the building profile segment, affected by the downturn in the real estate industry and seasonal factors, sample enterprises reported average existing orders and weak new orders, and the operating rate remained unchanged [43]. - Aluminum plates and strips: The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises remained stable at 63.2% week - on - week. With high aluminum prices, downstream customers are waiting and watching, and the finished product inventory of each aluminum plate and strip enterprise is high. Enterprises reported that it is the off - season for exports, and there is little hope for the recovery of export orders. In addition, aluminum plate and strip enterprises in various regions have not reduced production due to high - temperature power rationing [43]. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises decreased by 0.4% week - on - week to 61.6%. Although the operating rate of some enterprises has improved marginally due to order scheduling and the delivery of UHV and power transmission and transformation orders, some enterprises' strategy of reducing raw material and finished product inventories has led to a weakening of the overall operating rate. Attention should be paid to whether the matching of power grid orders in August can reopen the industry's concentrated delivery cycle [46]. - Primary aluminum alloy: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises remained stable at 54% week - on - week. Although the task of aluminum - water alloying and the strategy of aluminum rod conversion continue to provide marginal support, most sample enterprises are restricted by weak terminal demand, insufficient new orders, thin profit margins, and high - temperature holidays, and the operating rate is weakly stable [46].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Gold prices are expected to fluctuate due to tariff agreements and Federal Reserve independence issues, with prices initially rising before declining [2][9] - Copper prices are supported by positive market sentiment and upcoming tariff implementation, despite potential supply and demand pressures [10][12] - The aluminum sector is experiencing price fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and inventory levels, with long-term demand expected to remain strong [11][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Research Insights - Gold prices are under pressure due to evolving tariff agreements and scrutiny of the Federal Reserve's independence, with a long-term bullish outlook on gold [9] - Copper prices are supported by positive sentiment in the domestic commodity market and upcoming tariff changes, with a long-term optimistic outlook [10] - Aluminum prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors and inventory levels, with expectations of sustained high profitability in the sector [11] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal index increased by 7.10%, outperforming the broader market by 5.43%, ranking third among 30 sub-industries [12] - The top-performing sectors include tungsten, lithium, and rare earth materials, with significant individual stock gains [12] Metal Prices and Inventory - Prices for various metals, including lithium and cobalt, have shown significant increases, indicating strong demand and market dynamics [22][24][27] - Basic metals have generally seen price increases both domestically and internationally, with specific price movements detailed for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin [27][28] - Inventory levels for metals such as copper and aluminum have shown mixed trends, impacting market supply dynamics [35][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that supply-side disturbances are causing lithium prices to continue to break through previous levels. Additionally, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact despite recent price corrections due to improved market risk appetite following trade agreements [1][37]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant increase this week, with a 6.7% rise in the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index. Sub-sectors such as small metals and energy metals experienced even higher gains of 14.3% and 12.4%, respectively [10][17]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Price strength driven by tariff easing and anti-involution sentiment. Domestic electrolytic copper production increased by 13.16% year-on-year to 6.6276 million tons in the first half of the year, despite supply constraints [2]. - **Aluminum**: Short-term price fluctuations due to changing sentiments around anti-involution policies. The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry reached 43.975 million tons, with minor production adjustments observed [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Continued supply-side disturbances led to a price increase, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising 14.3% to 79,000 yuan/ton. Concerns over mining license renewals may tighten supply further [2][28]. - **Silicon Metal**: Prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to market sentiment influenced by anti-involution policies, despite stable demand from downstream industries [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have corrected due to improved market risk appetite following trade agreements, but the long-term bullish outlook remains unchanged amid ongoing concerns over global monetary credit and public debt [1][37]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including: - **Shanxi International** (Buy) - **Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining** (Buy) - **Luoyang Molybdenum** (Buy) - **China Hongqiao Group** (Buy) [5].

Group 1 - The core issue is the escalating trade tensions between the EU and the US, particularly due to the US imposing significant tariffs on EU goods, which has prompted EU leaders to seek support from allies like Japan [1][3][4] - The US has implemented a series of tariffs, including a 10% basic tariff on most EU exports, a 25% tariff on imported cars and parts, and a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum products, with further threats of a 30% tariff on EU goods starting August 1 [3][4] - The potential impact of these tariffs is severe, with 70% of the €530 billion worth of goods exported from the EU to the US being affected, leading to reduced profit margins and increased prices for EU manufacturers, particularly in the automotive sector [4][6] Group 2 - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's visit to Japan aims to establish a "competitiveness alliance" focused on developing rare earth resources, reducing reliance on China [6][9] - The EU's relationship with China is complex, with recent tensions arising from trade barriers and restrictions on Chinese companies, despite a history of strong economic cooperation [6][7] - The EU is encouraged to recognize mutual interests with China and engage in sincere dialogue to foster cooperation in trade and global governance, which could stabilize and enhance EU-China relations [9]

Group 1 - The EU is close to reaching an agreement with the US on a 15% tariff on European products exported to the US, with a potential implementation date of August 7 if negotiations fail [1][2][4] - The EU has prepared countermeasures, including a proposed €93 billion in tariffs on US products, which could reach up to 30% if negotiations do not yield satisfactory results [4][5] - The negotiations are influenced by the US's previous agreements with Japan and the need for President Trump to demonstrate successful outcomes in trade discussions [1][3] Group 2 - The proposed 15% tariff may apply to various sectors, including automobiles and pharmaceuticals, and would not stack on existing tariffs [2][3] - The EU's internal discussions indicate a willingness to accept the 15% tariff as a means to maintain the status quo, potentially reducing the current 27.5% tariff on cars [2][3] - The EU is also considering the activation of the "anti-coercion tool" as a response to US tariffs, reflecting a strong stance among member states [5][6] Group 3 - The deadline for reaching an agreement is approaching, with many unresolved issues remaining, particularly concerning Canada and Mexico, which face significant tariffs if no agreement is reached [6][7] - The cancellation of the US-South Korea "2+2" economic talks raises concerns about the likelihood of reaching a tariff agreement with South Korea before the deadline [7] - Analysts suggest that the US's fluctuating negotiation strategy has created significant uncertainty in global trade [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the ongoing discussions between the EU and the US regarding trade relations, with a potential agreement on tariff reductions being a focal point [1][4][5] - Trump stated that the likelihood of reaching a trade agreement with the EU is around 50%, which caused a temporary drop in the euro against the dollar [1][5] - EU officials expressed optimism about reaching a trade agreement, potentially involving a 15% tariff rate, similar to a recent agreement with Japan [5][6] Group 2 - A face-to-face meeting is scheduled for July 27 in Scotland to further discuss trade cooperation and related disputes between the EU and the US [5][6] - Trump has previously announced a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1, with additional tariffs on specific industries, including a 25% tariff on automobiles and parts [5][6] - The EU is seeking to establish lower tariff quotas for certain steel and aluminum products and hopes for exemptions in specific sectors [6] Group 3 - Trump indicated that most trade agreements are expected to be finalized before August, with plans to issue around 200 tariff letters to other trading partners [7] - He downplayed the possibility of the UK negotiating a deal by removing its digital services tax in exchange for lower US tariffs on steel and aluminum [7] - Australia has recently lifted restrictions on US beef imports, which Trump praised as a positive step in trade negotiations [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The progress of the US - EU tariff agreement eases trade tensions, weakening gold's safe - haven demand. The drop in US initial jobless claims to 217,000 strengthens the expectation of the Fed maintaining interest rates. The breakdown of cease - fire negotiations in the Middle East provides some support, while domestic gold prices are pressured by both the decline in international gold prices and the strengthening of the RMB [3]. - Copper: The "anti - involution" affects the entire non - ferrous metal sector. Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term, but there are potential mid - term risks as there is no significant capacity to be eliminated on the supply side, and the construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station has a long cycle with low initial copper demand. Also, the increase in copper prices has not significantly driven up positions [13]. - Aluminum: Macroeconomic factors are positive, boosting sentiment. Low inventory continues to support aluminum prices, and SHFE aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. For alumina, the short - term trend is mainly driven by sentiment, and it may fluctuate, with a risk of significant correction if the fundamentals change. Cast aluminum alloy is affected by high scrap aluminum prices and weak demand [33][34][35]. - Zinc: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" sentiment, SHFE zinc fluctuates at a high level. Fundamentally, the supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak during the traditional off - season. The Yarlung River Dam project may bring some demand growth [62]. - Nickel: Nickel ore supply is expected to be loose with narrowing demand and is likely to decline. Nickel pig iron trading has improved, and stainless steel lacks upward momentum. Sulfuric acid nickel is produced based on sales, and attention should be paid to the support of nickel pig iron and large - scale production cuts [78]. - Tin: The rise in tin prices is due to the "anti - involution" impact on the non - ferrous sector, but its fundamentals remain unchanged. In the short term, with the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weakening demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the support [93]. - Lithium Carbonate: The spot market for lithium ore and lithium salts is actively traded, and industry profits are improving. Cost support is strengthened by rising ore prices, but price fluctuations have increased [103]. - Silicon Industry Chain: Market sentiment is hot, and both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices have fluctuated significantly. Investors should pay attention to position risks [112]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Influencing Factors**: Trade agreements, US economic data, Middle East situation, and RMB exchange rate affect gold prices [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, and the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, and long - term fund holdings [4][8]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term slightly stronger, mid - term potential risks [13]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of SHFE copper contracts show a decline, and the trading volume and positions have certain trends [14]. - **Spot Data**: Spot copper prices have decreased, and the basis and spreads have changed [17]. - **Import and Processing**: Copper import losses have increased, and copper concentrate TC remains unchanged [25]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: SHFE and LME copper warehouse receipts and inventories have different changes [30][31]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Macroeconomic support, low inventory support, and short - term high - level fluctuations [33]. - **Alumina**: High operating capacity, slow inventory accumulation, tight spot supply, and short - term sentiment - driven [34]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: High cost, weak demand, and price following SHFE aluminum [35]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Include prices of various contracts, spreads between different contracts, and basis data [36][41]. - **Inventory Data**: SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina warehouse receipts and inventories have changed [58]. Zinc - **Price Outlook**: High - level fluctuations under "anti - involution" sentiment, with supply gradually becoming surplus and demand weak [62]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Prices of SHFE and LME zinc contracts have declined, and spreads between different contracts have changed [63]. - **Spot Data**: Spot zinc prices have decreased, and the basis and spreads have certain trends [69]. - **Inventory Data**: SHFE and LME zinc warehouse receipts and inventories have increased [74]. Nickel - **Industry Outlook**: Nickel ore supply is loose, nickel pig iron trading improves, stainless steel lacks upward momentum, and sulfuric acid nickel is produced based on sales [78]. - **Price and Position Data**: Prices of SHFE and LME nickel contracts have changed, and trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts have corresponding trends [79]. - **Related Price Charts**: Include prices of nickel ore, nickel pig iron, and downstream products, as well as profit margins of related production [84][86][88]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: The rise is due to sector - wide influence, with short - term upward pressure greater than support [93]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: Prices of SHFE and LME tin contracts have declined, and spot tin prices and related products have also decreased [94][97]. - **Inventory Data**: SHFE tin warehouse receipts have increased, while LME tin inventory remains unchanged [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: Active spot trading, improving industry profits, and strengthening cost support [103]. - **Futures Price Data**: Prices of various lithium carbonate futures contracts have increased, and spreads between different contracts have changed [103]. - **Spot Data**: Prices of lithium ore and lithium salts have risen, and the spreads between different products have also changed [106]. - **Inventory Data**: Exchange and social inventories of lithium carbonate have different changes [110]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Market Outlook**: Hot market sentiment, significant price fluctuations in industrial silicon and polysilicon futures, and investors should pay attention to position risks [112]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Spot prices are stable, futures prices have increased slightly, and basis and spreads have changed [113][114]. - **Related Price Charts**: Include prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery chips, and components, as well as production and inventory data of industrial silicon [120][121][127][133][140].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of anti - involution narratives and expectations of incremental policies, the overall stock and commodity markets remain strong, while long - term bonds are under pressure. The market is affected by factors such as trade negotiations, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships in different sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index - There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small amount of short positions in put options on MO with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, and reduce positions, maintaining a moderately bullish stance. On the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term and pay attention to the capital situation and incremental policies [2]. Treasury Bonds - The risk assets suppress long - term bonds. With the tightening of the capital market, the short - selling sentiment in the bond futures market has increased, and the redemption pressure on bond funds may start to rise, which still suppresses the bond market. In terms of the curve strategy, it is possible to continue to bet on the steepening [2]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by the weakening of the US dollar's credit and its commodity attributes, and it oscillates above the 60 - day moving average. Silver has further upside potential due to the general rise of domestic industrial products and capital inflows, and long positions can be held. Gold continues to correct as the European Central Bank pauses rate cuts for the first time in a year and the risk - aversion sentiment eases [2]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract rebounds slightly. With the increasing expectation of anti - involution, the price continues to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 08 contract or short the 10 contract at high prices [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - The iron ore has insufficient upward momentum as the molten iron output slightly decreases and the port inventory slightly increases. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore. The steel price continues to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be held [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - The expectation of production - restriction documents is rising, the resumption of coal mines is lagging, the spot market is strong, and the transaction is picking up. The third round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has started, and there is still an expectation of price increases. It is recommended to take profits on long positions step by step at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The short - term sentiment fades, and high copper prices suppress demand. - Aluminum: The market sentiment is bullish, and the aluminum price oscillates at a high level, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. - Other non - ferrous metals also have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on factors such as macro - sentiment, inventory, and supply - demand [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The macro - sentiment eases, and the demand expectation recovers, pushing up the oil price. - Other energy and chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions according to factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and cost [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions based on factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [2]. Special Commodities - Glass: The document on air pollution prevention boosts market sentiment, and the spot transaction is strong. - Rubber: The macro - sentiment is positive, and supply disruptions due to rainy weather in overseas production areas and conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia drive up the rubber price. - Other special commodities also have corresponding market trends and trading suggestions [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures oscillate and rise to a new high, but attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback due to the increase in warehouse receipts. - Recycled lithium: The market sentiment is boosted, but the fundamental change is not significant. It is recommended to be cautious and stay on the sidelines [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 24, Shanghai aluminum continued to undergo a correction. The 2509 contract fell 0.41% to 20,760. The total open interest of the index decreased by 25,607 to 665,593 lots. The 08 - 09 spread remained flat at 25, and the AD - AL negative spread was reported at -525. Alumina fluctuated at a high level, closing slightly up 0.23% at 3,427. The proportion of old - style production capacity in the alumina industry is relatively low, and it is difficult to benefit under current policies. In the short term, there is still a need to be vigilant about the callback risk after the sentiment fades. [8] - The electrolytic aluminum sector is currently in the traditional off - season. Domestic operating capacity remains at a high level, and demand remains sluggish. The operating rate of the aluminum processing sector is still weak during the off - season. The negative feedback effect of the high absolute price of aluminum on terminal consumption has reappeared. On July 24, the immediate profit was 3,979 yuan/ton, still at a high level. Overall, both supply and demand of aluminum are weak during the off - season. In the short term, it is supported by policy expectations and rises with the sector, but the upside space is temporarily difficult to open, and the resistance near the previous high is obvious. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum: The 2509 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell 0.41% on July 24, with a decrease in total open interest. The 08 - 09 spread was flat, and the AD - AL negative spread was -525. [8] - Alumina: It fluctuated at a high level, closing slightly up 0.23% at 3,427. There is a risk of a post - sentiment callback. [8] - Electrolytic Aluminum: In the off - season, high operating capacity, weak demand, low processing operating rate, and high profit level. The upside space is restricted by the previous high. [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In June, primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6%. In June, the net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. [9] - **Production Data**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity changed slightly. Due to the start of the second - phase replacement of electrolytic aluminum from Shandong to Yunnan, the production capacity of the original factory was required to be reduced, resulting in a slight month - on - month decrease in production. In July, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained at a high level, and the second - batch replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, with the industry operating rate rebounding. [10] - **Guinea's Mining Policy**: On the evening of July 17, 2025, Guinea's National Television announced the revocation of exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. The revoked bauxite enterprises have long - idle mining rights and no actual mining activities. The government aims to improve the transparency and standardization of mineral resource management. [10] - **US Aluminum Plant Restart**: Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid - 2026, with an estimated loss of up to $110 million due to the delay. The restart was postponed due to a nationwide power outage in Spain on April 28. After the Spanish government provided relevant reports and commitments, the restart work resumed on July 14. Alcoa expects the smelter to record a net loss of about $90 million - $110 million in 2025, and the entire restart process is expected to be completed by mid - 2026. The smelter has an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 228,000 tons. [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. The market is optimistic about the potential for supply - side clearance, which has boosted copper prices. However, demand has weakened with the price rebound, and there is a short - term situation of weak supply and demand. Domestic macro - policies and low inventories support copper prices. The main reference price range is 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term prices are expected to be strong above 3,100 yuan/ton, but there are risks such as policy changes in Guinea and potential squeezes. Mid - term, it is advisable to short at high prices. For aluminum, short - term prices are under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price reference range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction inflection points and demand changes [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract reference range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment [9]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [11]. Tin - Supply - side restoration is expected as tin mines in Myanmar resume production. However, due to positive market sentiment, short positions should be avoided for now. After the sentiment stabilizes, short at high prices [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy directions and steel - mill production reduction rhythms [17]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is characterized by emotional differentiation, and trading on price volatility can be considered. The main contract price range is 68,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton. Mid - term, a hedging strategy at high prices is recommended. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and upstream actions [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.04% to 79,790 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.34 million tons (-0.30%) to 1.1349 million tons, and imports increased by 47,400 tons (18.74%) to 300,500 tons. The opening rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased by 7.22 percentage points to 74.22% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.43% to 20,850 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, alumina production decreased by 14,000 tons (-0.19%) to 7.2581 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 120,000 tons (-3.22%) to 3.609 million tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,250 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 50 yuan/ton to 95 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 9,000 tons (1.49%) to 615,000 tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6,000 tons (-2.30%) to 255,000 tons [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.18% to 22,820 yuan/ton. The premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production increased by 35,700 tons (6.50%) to 585,100 tons, and imports increased by 9,300 tons (34.97%) to 36,100 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.40% to 124,050 yuan/ton. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged at 2,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, China's refined nickel production decreased by 3,550 tons (-10.04%) to 31,800 tons, and imports increased by 10,325 tons (116.90%) to 19,157 tons [11]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.98% to 268,900 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, tin ore imports decreased by 1,538 tons (-11.44%) to 11,911 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 1,030 tons (-6.94%) to 13,810 tons [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 68,300 tons (-3.83%) to 1.7133 million tons, and imports decreased by 16,000 tons (-12.48%) to 109,500 tons [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.95% to 70,450 yuan/ton. The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 6,010 tons (8.34%) to 78,090 tons, and demand decreased by 145 tons (-0.15%) to 93,815 tons [20].