展望后市： 市场提前进入节假日效应，未了规避长假休市期间海外不确定性，投资者更愿意观望为主，两市成交量跌破2万亿元就是 重要信号，预计指数短期保持窄幅震荡，市场风格更利于顺周期涨价方向。 风险提示： 消息面或海外市场表现超预期，流动性的不确定性。 长假临近，市场成交意愿清淡，预计节前指数维持窄幅震荡。 目前距离春节长假仅有最后两个交易日，考虑到A股市场休市期间，港股将在2月16日 正常开市半天，而在2月20日和2月23日正常开市两天，另外海外股市均正常交易，投资者担心A股休市期间海外市场出现剧烈波动从而影响节后A股开盘 情绪，故而在节前保持谨慎心态也在情理之中。 相比于没有太大"波澜"的指数，市场风格的变化更要引起重视。 一是美联储新主席沃什上任后，全球投资人担心其未来降息+缩表的政策组合会对估 值过高的科技类股票带来不利影响，所以近几周道琼斯指数大幅跑赢了纳斯达克指数。而反观国内，最能代表科技含量的恒生科技指数也处于持续调整过 程中，我们虽仍强烈看好未来科技板块的长期趋势，但是阶段性的调整仍在继续。二是完全"停不了"的消费品和工业品涨价潮，多个化工品和有色金属涨 价仍在持续，除此之外，和居民关联度更高的下游 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a seven-day rise, but trading volume continued to shrink, leading to a significant "seesaw" effect in capital allocation and accelerated sector rotation [1] - Ahead of the Spring Festival holiday, funds are divided into two camps: one showing cautious sentiment favoring dividend and free cash flow ETFs, while the other is positioning for a rebound after the holiday [1] - Major ETFs that received significant net subscriptions from external funds include the ChiNext ETF and the CSI 1000 ETF, with industry-specific ETFs like satellite, robotics, AI, semiconductor equipment, and chemical ETFs also seeing strong inflows [1] Group 2 - According to Wang Bo from Huaxia Fund, the reduction in trading volume before the holiday is normal, and there is a general optimistic expectation for the February market, although a short-term recovery in market sentiment will take time [2] - The investment strategy suggested includes maintaining a balanced allocation across technology, cyclical, and consumer sectors through broad-based ETFs like the Hu-Shen 300 ETF [2] - The recent increase in January PPI by 0.4% month-on-month has catalyzed price increases in the chemical sector, while positive developments in robotics and AI models are also emerging [1][2]

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡反弹 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 3 | | 铜：原料端扰动，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 9 | | 锡：小幅震荡 | 10 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：过剩格局未改 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：交投清淡，横盘整理 | 13 | | 钯：持续震荡 | 13 | | 镍：印尼消息扰动再现，关注投机属性风险 | 15 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：情绪利好推升盘面，关注节前资金行为 | 17 | | 工业硅：盘面波幅减少 | 19 | | 多晶硅：部分仓单注销，关注情绪影响 | 19 | | 铁矿石：区间震荡 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 焦煤：事件扰动，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：区间震荡 | 28 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-12 淡季⽭盾积累，盘⾯表现承压 钢材节前需求回落，基本⾯缺乏亮点，盘⾯表现疲软。钢⼚复产节奏 偏缓，但铁矿⽯发运端存在扰动，盘⾯低位震荡。冬储临近尾声，煤 焦补库⽀撑逐步转弱，盘⾯⽀撑有限。玻璃供应端存在扰动，但玻纯 供需过剩压制盘⾯价格。 钢材节前需求回落，基本面缺乏亮点，盘面表现疲软。钢厂复产节奏 偏缓，但铁矿石发运端存在扰动，盘面低位震荡。冬储临近尾声，煤 焦补库支撑逐步转弱，盘面支撑有限。玻璃供应端存在扰动，但玻纯 供需过剩压制盘面价格。 1. 铁元素方面：铁矿石库存压力持续增加，供应端仍存天气扰动预 期，当前市场对节后需求预期一般，盘面表现承压，但节后即将召开 重要会议，宏观预期仍存，盘面快速回落后压力有所释放，关注市场 情绪变化。废钢供应、日耗均有季节性下降的预期，随着补库接近尾 声，整体基本面将边际转弱，预计现货价格跟随成材为主。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭供应后续增长空间有限，而下游钢厂复产预期 仍在，焦炭供需结构将持续保持健康，但基本面利多驱动同样有限， 现货预计暂稳运行，盘面预计仍将跟随成本端焦煤 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The black series is currently in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, it is likely to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the range, and the trend opportunity is not clear. Attention should be paid to inventory inflection points around the Spring Festival, the recovery intensity of plate demand, and marginal changes in "dual - carbon" related policies [3]. - For iron ore, it is expected to fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival. Future focus should be on overseas ore shipping and domestic hot - metal production rhythm [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, in the long - term, it is believed that the commodity bulls will continue, but in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals may suppress the market atmosphere. Future market drivers may come from the overall black market sentiment, cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contraction (or contraction expectations) for ferrosilicon due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies [9][10]. - For coking coal and coke, although it is thought that coking coal may have a smooth upward trend in 2026, in the short term, the upward catalyst is not strong, and there may be a risk of price correction after the Spring Festival [15][17]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival, with supply and demand both weak in February, and the upward driving force is insufficient [21]. - For polysilicon, the supply continues to decrease, the supply - demand relationship marginally improves, and the high inventory in the silicon material link is expected to be slightly reduced. The futures market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand feedback and spot prices after the Spring Festival [23]. - For glass, it is expected to continue the volatile consolidation trend in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract being 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton [26]. - For soda ash, it is expected to continue the weak operation, with the reference range of the main contract being 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton [28]. Summary by Categories Steel Products Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3054 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.065%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 16,903 tons, a net increase of 1,193 tons. The open interest of the main contract was 2.0637 million lots, a net decrease of 1,877 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton, also unchanged [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3228 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.248%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 276,419 tons, a net increase of 23,219 tons. The open interest of the main contract was 1.5524 million lots, a net increase of 9,529 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, also unchanged [2]. Strategy Viewpoints - The sentiment in the commodity market has recovered, but the prices of finished steel products have continued to be weak. In the short term, the new carbon - trading policy has limited direct impact on the steel supply - demand pattern, but it helps to raise the cost center and restrict the downward space of steel prices. Near the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of rebar have both declined seasonally, and the inventory has entered the accumulation stage, but the overall inventory - accumulation rhythm is still controllable; the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively stable, the output has decreased slightly, and the inventory has also increased slightly, with the supply - demand structure being generally neutral [3]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 762.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.13% (+1.00). The open interest changed by - 6983 lots to 507,000 lots. The weighted open interest of iron ore was 867,900 lots. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 767 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 51.70 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.35% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipping volume has declined significantly in the latest period. The shipping volume from Australia has decreased sharply due to cyclones, and the shipping volume from Brazil has decreased slightly. The shipping volume from non - mainstream countries has remained basically stable, and the near - end arrival volume has decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the average daily hot - metal output in the latest period was 228.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6 tons, lower than expected. The port inventory has continued to increase and is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, which exerts pressure on the absolute price. It is expected that the iron ore price will fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival, and future focus should be on overseas ore shipping and domestic hot - metal production rhythm [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On February 11, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed up 0.10% at 5824 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures surface, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 86 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed down 0.07% at 5574 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 124 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - In the long - term, it is believed that the commodity bulls will continue, but in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals may suppress the market atmosphere. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but these factors may have been priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, and there is marginal improvement. Future market drivers may come from the overall black market sentiment, cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contraction (or contraction expectations) for ferrosilicon due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On February 11, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed up 0.40% at 1123.5 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1550.6 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1360 yuan/ton, with a premium of 236.5 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of medium - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1270 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1253.0 yuan/ton, with a premium of 129.5 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of Mongolian 5 cleaned coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1227 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1202 yuan/ton, with a premium of 78.5 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed up 0.12% at 1667.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1725.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 58.5 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1766 yuan/ton, with a premium of 99 yuan/ton over the futures price [12]. Strategy Viewpoints - Overseas coal - related disturbances have been frequent recently, and the sentiment is bullish, but it has no direct and substantial impact on the domestic coking coal market. The price of coking coal has fluctuated significantly due to the sharp rise and fall of precious metals. In the short term, the upward catalyst for coking coal prices is not strong, and there may be a risk of price correction after the Spring Festival. However, coking coal may have a smooth upward trend in 2026, especially during the period from June to October [15][17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - For industrial silicon, the closing price of the main contract (SI2605) was 8370 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.06% (- 5). The weighted contract open interest increased by 5762 lots to 424,194 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 830 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 industrial silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract after converting to the futures price was 480 yuan/ton [19]. - For polysilicon, the closing price of the main contract (PS2605) was 49180 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.47% (+230). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 700 lots to 65,128 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 52.75 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re -投料 was 53.65 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 4470 yuan/ton [22]. Strategy Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are both weak in February. The supply may shrink significantly, and the demand is also weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival, and the upward driving force is insufficient [21]. - For polysilicon, the supply continues to decrease, the supply - demand relationship marginally improves, and the high inventory in the silicon material link is expected to be slightly reduced. The futures market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand feedback and spot prices after the Spring Festival [23]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - For glass, the main contract closed at 1071 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, up 0.09% (+1). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1030 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1110 yuan, also unchanged. On February 5, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 53.064 million boxes, a month - on - month increase of 0.5 million boxes (+0.95%). In terms of open interest, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 7689 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 14,869 lots [25]. - For soda ash, the main contract closed at 1178 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, up 0.60% (+7). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1128 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 7 yuan. On February 5, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5811 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,900 tons (+0.95%), including 746,100 tons of heavy soda ash, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons, and 835,000 tons of light soda ash, a month - on - month increase of 6900 tons. In terms of open interest, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 5356 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 5814 lots [27]. Strategy Viewpoints - For glass, downstream processing enterprises are in the final stage, with weak purchasing willingness. The daily melting volume of glass is at a historical low, and there are still plans for cold - repair and transformation of production lines. It is expected to continue the volatile consolidation trend in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract being 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton [26]. - For soda ash, the demand for heavy soda ash is still weak, and the daily melting volumes of float glass and photovoltaic glass are at a low level. The market is in a weak and stable volatile state, and it is expected to continue the weak operation, with the reference range of the main contract being 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton [28].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese securities market showed significant vitality in 2025, with technology and resources as key themes. The market is expected to maintain its active performance in 2026, supported by ongoing industrial transformation, favorable top-level policies, and a downward trend in interest rates leading to increased market participation from residents [1][10]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The manager believes that the earnings effect in the equity market will remain substantial in 2026 due to three supporting forces: ongoing industrial transformation, supportive policies for the capital market, and the unchanged logic of residents' deposits entering the market [1][10]. - After a notable rise in 2025, some industries and stocks have completed valuation recovery, indicating a need to lower return expectations and focus more on safety margins. A flexible position control and sensitivity to market fluctuations will be essential [1][10]. Group 2: Stock Investment Focus - The focus will be on hard technology, cyclical industries, globally competitive manufacturing, and the silver economy. The manager emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with high technological barriers, good competitive landscapes, and significant growth potential that are relatively under the market's radar [4][13]. - Some cyclical industries may have reached a turning point in supply-demand dynamics, particularly those with high global market share and domestic concentration, such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and coal, which are expected to see performance and valuation reversals in 2026 [4][13]. Group 3: Bond Investment Strategy - For convertible bonds, the current valuations may be at an inconvenient level, with some high-priced, high-premium targets potentially facing valuation risks. The strategy will focus on high-volatility balance strategies, seeking targets with significant stock volatility and reasonable convertible bond pricing [14]. - In pure bond investments, the market is expected to remain in a sideways trading phase with limited further volatility. A neutral duration will be maintained to balance coupon income while providing a hedge against equity assets [15]. Group 4: Investment Philosophy - The manager employs a rigorous engineering research spirit to deeply analyze individual stocks, focusing on macro trends, industrial changes, and technological advancements to uncover investment opportunities in technology growth, dividend stocks, and cyclical reversals [16]. - The investment approach emphasizes independent thinking, thorough research of underlying technical details, and the identification of high-quality stocks to provide better returns and holding experiences for investors [16].

Core Viewpoint - The green and low-carbon development is essential for traditional industries like steel to achieve high-quality growth, and it is a key component in Shandong's initiative to become a leading area for green, low-carbon, and high-quality development [1] Group 1: Green Transformation Initiatives - Shandong has been actively promoting the third round of the "Four Reductions and Four Increases" action plan, focusing on key areas such as industry and energy to systematically advance green and low-carbon transformation [1] - The province has made significant progress in optimizing the steel industry layout by establishing a comprehensive ecological environment zoning control system, encouraging the concentration of petrochemical and steel industries along the coast [1] Group 2: Industry Capacity and Development - As of now, over 53% of Shandong's crude steel production capacity is located along the coast, with advanced capacity in key industries exceeding 40% [1] - The State Council has issued the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan," prompting Shandong to accelerate the formulation of detailed implementation plans and to prepare the "14th Five-Year" plan for solid waste pollution prevention and control [1] Group 3: Solid Waste Management - Shandong aims to enhance technological research and development to promote the green transformation of industries such as chemical and metal smelting, focusing on the recycling and utilization of large quantities of industrial solid waste like red mud and fly ash [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - With the Middle - East geopolitical situation prone to fluctuations, crude oil prices are trending strongly. This week, methanol inventories at ports increased slightly, while those in the inland areas decreased. As downstream提货 weakens during the Spring Festival holiday, the fundamentals lack continuous drivers, so the short - term methanol price will oscillate slightly stronger. The reference range for the 05 contract is 2200 - 2300 [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Review - On Wednesday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose 2 yuan to 2243 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East - China region rose 5 yuan to 2215 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 1453 to 477,000, and short positions decreased by 21,332 to 583,000 [1] Important Information - **Supply**: The domestic methanol operating rate is 92.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 46.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% [1] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of methanol at Chinese ports is 1432,200 tons, an increase of 21,200 tons from the previous data. Among them, inventory in East - China increased by 36,600 tons, and that in South - China decreased by 15,400 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 340,300 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 7.61% [1] - **Demand**: The signing volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 56,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9700 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 315,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 9.75%. The olefin operating rate is 83.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 77.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4%; the acetic acid operating rate is 81.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 30%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%; the MBTE operating rate is 68.0%, unchanged from the previous period [1] - **Import Data**: In December 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1,734,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%, and the average import price was 240.61 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%. Among them, the largest import volume was from Saudi Arabia, which was 604,400 tons, with an average import price of 238.74 dollars/ton. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 14,405,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75% [1] - **Crude Oil Market**: Concerns about potential supply risks due to unstable geopolitical situations led to an increase in international oil prices, but the growth of US commercial crude oil inventories limited the increase. The NYMEX crude oil futures 03 contract rose 0.67 dollars/barrel to 64.63 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.05%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 04 contract rose 0.60 dollars/barrel to 69.40 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.87%. China's INE crude oil futures 2604 contract rose 3.4 to 475.9 yuan/barrel, and rose 3.9 to 479.8 yuan/barrel at night [1] Market Logic - The Middle - East geopolitical situation may fluctuate, and crude oil prices are trending strongly. This week, methanol inventories at ports increased slightly, while those in the inland areas decreased. As downstream提货 weakens during the Spring Festival holiday, the fundamentals lack continuous drivers, so the short - term methanol price will oscillate slightly stronger. The reference range for the 05 contract is 2200 - 2300 [1] Trading Strategy - As the holiday approaches, hold light positions or no positions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The cyclical sector shows strong performance, with significant gains in metals, chemicals, and oil and gas sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the long-term fundamentals of the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Group 1: Sector Performance - The mining ETF (561330) increased by 2.93%, while the gold stock ETF (517400) rose by 2.62%, and the chemical ETF (516220) gained 2.20% [2] - The coal sector is also performing well, with news that the Trump administration plans to direct the Pentagon to purchase coal, potentially revitalizing the coal industry [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Concerns about cryptocurrencies impacting liquidity in the cyclical sector have been alleviated, as precious metals like silver remain stable, suggesting limited risk of a secondary shock to the non-ferrous sector [1] - Long-term support for the non-ferrous sector is expected from factors such as resource nationalism and supply-demand imbalances [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to the only coal ETF (515220) due to short-term catalysts and long-term valuation support from a weakening dollar credit [1]

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices dropping over 1%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fell below 2 trillion yuan for the first time in 31 trading days, decreasing by 121.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Over 3,200 stocks in the market declined, while the chemical sector showed strength, and the glass fiber concept surged. The closing figures were: Shanghai Composite Index up 0.09%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.35%, and ChiNext down 1.08% [1]. Investment Insights National Investment Securities - National Investment Securities predicts a resurgence of the technology growth style after the Spring Festival, suggesting that historical trends indicate a significant style switch is likely. If the market leans towards value and large caps before the festival, it is expected to shift towards technology growth and small caps afterward. The firm believes that the technology growth style will likely prevail post-Spring Festival, supported by liquidity easing and weak macro fundamentals [2]. CITIC Securities - CITIC Securities notes that precious metals have experienced significant adjustments due to panic triggered by Kevin Warsh's nomination. However, the firm maintains that precious metals will continue to trend upward due to high global debt and increasing geopolitical risks. Basic industrial metals are expected to return to their supply-demand pricing after a brief adjustment, supported by genuine demand from downstream entities. Additionally, the U.S. has initiated a critical mineral reserve plan, highlighting the importance of mineral resources and driving up valuations for resource-related assets [3]. Guosheng Securities - Guosheng Securities highlights six key signals from the central bank's fourth-quarter monetary policy report. Notably, the report emphasizes promoting stable economic growth as a crucial consideration for monetary policy, indicating that a weakening fundamental outlook will likely trigger monetary easing. The report also reflects a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with a shift from "promoting cost reduction" to "facilitating low-cost operation" in social financing. Furthermore, the report discusses the impact of resident deposit "loss" on liquidity and emphasizes the need for coordinated monetary and fiscal policies to enhance policy effectiveness [4].