Group 1 - Dow futures fell by 0.37%, S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.46%, and Nasdaq futures decreased by 0.57% [1] - Popular Chinese stocks saw a pre-market increase, with JD.com up 4.63%, Baidu up 2.57%, Ctrip up 2.48%, and NetEase up 5.36% [1] - Chip stocks experienced a pre-market decline, with Nvidia down 1.4%, AMD down 0.82%, and Intel down 0.74% [1] Group 2 - Samsara reported Q4 earnings that exceeded analyst expectations, with revenue of $444.3 million against a forecast of $422.26 million, and adjusted EPS of $0.18 compared to an expected $0.13, leading to an 8.86% stock increase [1] - Pfizer's weight loss drug "Saxenda" received approval in China for long-term weight management in overweight/obese adults, resulting in a 0.3% stock increase for Pfizer [1] Group 3 - Dow Chemical announced a price increase of €100 per ton for its polyether polyol products in the EMEAI region, citing rising energy, raw material, and logistics costs due to regional instability, leading to a 2.02% stock increase [2] - Meta's AI glasses raised privacy concerns as videos are sent to data annotators in Kenya for review, with Meta stating that faces will be blurred, resulting in a 0.39% stock decrease [2] Group 4 - Marvell Technology reported Q4 earnings for FY2026 with a record revenue of $2.22 billion, a year-over-year increase of over 20%, and adjusted EPS of $0.80, slightly above expectations, leading to a 12.01% stock increase [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the sentiment in the soda ash market was tepid. The average daily trading volume of the main contract was 786,000 lots, a 11.3% increase from last week. As of the close on March 6, the open interest of the main contract was 1.758 million lots, with a cumulative increase of 119,000 lots from the end of last week. The market was mainly a game of existing funds, with limited inflow of incremental funds. Meanwhile, the incremental funds in the energy and chemical sector flowed significantly to the futures varieties in the crude oil industry chain, further weakening the upward momentum of soda ash. In the top 20 positions of the main contract this week, the long positions totaled 576,000 lots, with a weekly increase of 29,000 lots; the short positions totaled 648,000 lots, with a weekly increase of 51,000 lots. The increase in short positions was greater than that in long positions, and the selling pressure from the hedging positions of production enterprises at high levels was significant, which was one of the core reasons for the weak upward movement of the market. - The strong market in the energy and chemical sector this week could only bring short - term impulse catalysis to soda ash in terms of sentiment and could not change the fundamental pattern of soda ash itself. The core root cause of the lack of strong driving force for soda ash was the weak supply - demand fundamentals. High supply, high inventory, weak reality, and the absence of strong catalysts formed triple suppression. At the same time, short - term funds were significantly diverted by the sector market. Whether soda ash can stage a catch - up and a trend - like upward movement completely depends on whether the expectations can be substantially realized in reality before mid - March. Three irreversible signals should be core - tracked: the establishment of the inventory depletion inflection point, the concentrated implementation of spring maintenance, and the substantial release of downstream restocking demand. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - This week, the main SA2605 contract of soda ash futures fluctuated upward, reaching a new high for the year, but the overall upward trend was tepid, and no smooth unilateral market was formed. The spot market price remained stable, with only a slight increase in the North China region, while the mainstream quotes in East, Central, and South China remained unchanged. Under the pressure of high inventory, the spot price was slow to follow the futures price and could not effectively support the futures. The futures price rose ahead of the spot price, and the linkage between futures and spot was weak. The upward movement of the market lacked effective support from the spot fundamentals. The current core contradiction in the soda ash market is still the game between the strong expectations of spring maintenance and the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season and the weak reality of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. [4] Supply - This week, the domestic soda ash production was 807,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,000 tons, or 2.03%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 374,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 68,000 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 432,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 92,000 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.77%, compared with 85.04% last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.73%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of the ammonia - soda process was 90.45%, unchanged from last week, and the capacity utilization rate of the combined process was 76.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02%. [4] Demand - This week, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 738,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 53.26%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 93.32%, a week - on - week increase of 32.2%. The daily melting volume of float glass was 148,500 tons, stable compared with last week, and that of photovoltaic glass was 87,800 tons, a decrease of 800 tons. Next week, it is expected that 600 tons of float glass will be drained and 1,050 tons will be ignited; for photovoltaic glass, 1,600 tons are expected to be ignited. [4] Inventory - The inventory of heavy soda ash remains at a high level. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.9472 million tons, including 1.0273 million tons of light soda ash and 919,900 tons of heavy soda ash, a week - on - week increase of 52,800 tons. [4] Profit - Geopolitical factors have led to a sharp rise in energy prices. The increase in the prices of crude oil, natural gas, and coal has pushed up the production cost of soda ash. The increase in cost has supported the price of soda ash. Currently, the spot price of soda ash is relatively low, and some enterprises are incurring losses, but the loss amplitude is limited. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - PP is expected to show a strong and volatile trend. After the Spring Festival, the domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, and the situation in the Middle East has boosted the energy - chemical sector. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of PP downstream production after the festival [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - As of the week of March 6, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 9.13 percentage points to 45.87% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises gradually resumed production but did not reach the pre - festival level. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 79%, at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to about 26.5%. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons and has been decreasing since then. Currently, it is at a neutral level in recent years. The conflict in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which has significantly boosted PP [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upward. The lowest price was 7,424 yuan/ton, the highest was 7,800 yuan/ton, and it closed at 7,797 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 4.18%. The position increased by 17,221 lots to 493,414 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions increased. The drawstring was reported at 7,320 - 7,980 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 6, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 79%, at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to about 26.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week of March 6, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 9.13 percentage points to 45.87% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises gradually resumed production but did not reach the pre - festival level [4] - Inventory: During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons. On Friday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 820,000 tons, 60,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year. Currently, it is at a neutral level in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose above $85 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $35 per ton week - on - week to $890 per ton [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [31]. Core Insights - The basic chemical index rose by 3.6% in the last two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.9 percentage points, ranking 7th among 31 industries [7][14]. - Year-to-date, the basic chemical index has increased by 15.2%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 14.9 percentage points, ranking 6th among 31 industries [7][14]. - Among the sub-sectors, non-metal materials increased by 12.0%, chemical raw materials by 9.0%, agricultural chemicals by 8.3%, and chemical products by 1.0% [16]. - Notable stock performances include Lingwei Technology, Jinrui Mining, and Jinniu Chemical, with increases of 62.5%, 55.8%, and 39.0% respectively [18]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of March 5, the basic chemical index has shown a positive trend, with various sub-sectors performing differently, indicating a mixed market sentiment [14][16]. - The report highlights that 199 out of 408 listed companies in the basic chemical index saw their stock prices rise in the last two weeks [18]. Important Company Announcements - BASF announced a global price increase of up to 20% for its additives used in plastic applications due to rising raw material costs and inflation [27]. - Other companies like Taihe Co. and Haineng Technology reported maintaining profitability despite market challenges, showcasing resilience in their operations [24]. Key Industry News - OPEC announced an increase in oil production by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April [23]. - The manufacturing PMI for February was reported at 49.0%, indicating a slight decline in manufacturing activity [28]. - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone and Donghua Energy to boost the chemical new materials industry [28]. Industry Outlook - The report suggests that the price adjustments by BASF may encourage other chemical companies to follow suit, potentially leading to a broader price increase across the industry [27]. - The refrigerant market is expected to see price increases due to supply constraints and regulatory changes starting in 2024, benefiting companies like Sanmei Co. and Juhua Co. [27][29].

Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes the need to focus on geopolitical uncertainties, tariffs, and liquidity disturbances while awaiting volatility to stabilize. Domestically, attention is directed towards the government work report and the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a continuous verification of economic recovery, particularly in social financing and prices. The A-share market is expected to experience oscillating rotations, with a balanced style, focusing on defensive, cyclical price increases, and structural opportunities in technology themes [4][31]. A-share Strategy - March is identified as a critical verification period for policies and the economy, with a focus on new insights from the Two Sessions and ongoing verification of economic recovery. Key signals from the Two Sessions include: 1) a growth target range of 4.5%-5% with an emphasis on quality and price; 2) the launch of major projects and new policy financial tools to support the year; 3) initiatives for increasing residents' income and enhancing social security to promote consumption and domestic demand; 4) optimizing existing resources and fostering new growth drivers [5][7]. - The report outlines a calendar effect for the Two Sessions, indicating a pattern of pre-meeting increases, mid-meeting adjustments, and post-meeting recoveries, with styles shifting from stability to financial, growth, and consumer sectors [5][25]. Industry Selection - Three main structural opportunities are highlighted: 1) Defensive sectors (high dividend stocks, oil and petrochemicals, public utilities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery); 2) Cyclical price increases (coal, steel, chemicals, non-ferrous metals); 3) Technology themes (AI, commercial aerospace, future energy, quantum technology, and embodied intelligence) [5][29][43]. - The report notes that the performance of the A-share market is influenced by external geopolitical uncertainties and domestic policy support, leading to a balanced growth and value style, with opportunities remaining in small and mid-cap stocks after adjustments [42][37]. Economic Window - March marks the beginning of a verification period for economic recovery, with a focus on financial data, exports, retail sales, real estate, infrastructure, and price data. Key attention is on whether financial data from February can continue to improve and the extent of demand recovery in exports, retail sales, and real estate [9][10]. Valuation Insights - The report indicates that the overall valuation of the A-share market has reached a new high in the current bull market, with a PE-TTM of 23.74 as of March 1, 2026, still having a 3% upside potential compared to the previous bull market peak of 24.47 [15][16]. Liquidity Trends - Public and wealth management products have shown significant growth at the beginning of the year, with a notable increase in new issuances and net subscriptions, indicating a strong influx of funds into the market. The report anticipates that the trend of residents moving deposits into wealth management products will continue [20][23].

Core Viewpoint - The restructuring process in the European chemical industry is ongoing, and the market has not yet returned to balance, making adjustments necessary to address overcapacity in the region [1] Group 1: Industry Restructuring - The CEO of BASF, Markus Kamieth, stated that there will be more capacity shutdowns, bankruptcies, and restructuring in the future, indicating that the restructuring era in the European chemical industry is not over [1] - Since 2022, nearly 25 million tons of chemical capacity have been shut down, sold, or are under evaluation for shutdown/sale in Europe, which is equivalent to 9% of the region's total chemical capacity in 2021 [1] - Germany has been the most affected country, with approximately 7 million tons of chemical capacity shut down or facing shutdown and sale, followed by the Netherlands [1] Group 2: Impact on Competitiveness - The exit of a large number of petrochemical production facilities and the bankruptcy of several companies are gradually weakening the overall advantages of tightly-knit industrial clusters that have long supported the competitiveness of the European chemical industry [1] - Despite the challenges, the capacity exits are deemed essential for restoring the commercial competitiveness of the European chemical industry [1] - Trade protectionism is viewed as detrimental to the industry, particularly affecting smaller, non-integrated production companies that are likely to struggle amidst the overcapacity issue [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a rebound in early trading, with all three major indices turning positive after a low opening, indicating a significant divergence in market performance [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.39 trillion yuan, a decrease of 162.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. - Over 4,400 stocks in the market saw an increase, reflecting a broad-based rally [1]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The electric grid equipment sector surged, with companies like Shun Sodium Co. and Han Cable Co. achieving three consecutive trading limit ups, while China Energy Construction and Guangdian Electric also hit the daily limit [3]. - The generator sector showed rapid strength, with Suchang Chai A and Changbao Co. reaching the daily limit [3]. - The chemical sector was active, with Jinzhengda, Jinpuhui Titanium Industry, Hongbaoli, and Hongqiang Co. all hitting the daily limit [3]. - The CPO concept rebounded, with Liante Technology achieving a 20% limit up, marking a historical high [3]. Group 3: Declining Sectors - The oil and gas sector showed weakness, with companies like Sinopec Oilfield Service and Zhongman Petroleum experiencing significant declines [4]. - At market close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.8%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.85% [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings 2. Core Views of the Report - Main broad - based indices may enter a stage of bottom - seeking and stabilization [3] - Gold prices are expected to show high - volatility range - bound movement in the short term. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East situation and the upcoming non - farm payroll report [4][5] - Silver is expected to follow the gold's trend in the short term, and its downside space may be relatively limited. Attention should be paid to COMEX inventory changes and global manufacturing PMI data [6][7] - For the chemical industry, short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and inventory pressure. The medium - term fundamentals are strong, but technical over - buying requires caution against correction risks [8] - For the agricultural products, the short - term upward space of corn is limited, and there may be a correction risk; peanut futures are expected to maintain range - bound movement; cotton prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term; soybean meal and soybean oil may fluctuate in a range; rapeseed meal may fluctuate in the short term; rapeseed oil should pay attention to the upper price platform pressure; the pig price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the farming side's slaughter situation; egg prices may continue to run at a low level, and medium - long - term attention should be paid to the farming side's replenishment and culling situation [15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24] - For the metals, Shanghai copper is expected to maintain a volatile and strong pattern; Shanghai aluminum operation requires caution, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended; alumina supply is expected to be in excess, but there is support near the cost line; cast aluminum alloy prices are strongly linked to Shanghai aluminum, and attention should be paid to cost and demand marginal changes; lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue the volatile and strong trend; industrial silicon may not have a trend market in the short term, and waiting and seeing is recommended; polysilicon trading is sluggish, and participation is not recommended [25][26][27][29][30][31][32] - For the black metals, stainless steel may fluctuate in the short term; steel prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil may be strongly volatile; iron ore may maintain a bearish trend, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and demand repair rhythm; coking coal and coke may maintain a weak - volatile pattern in the short term [33][34][35][36][37][38][39] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro and Stock Index - **Macro Information**: In 2026, the government work report set the tone of implementing a more proactive and effective macro - policy. The economy is in a mild recovery stage, with rising prices but a weak manufacturing PMI, indicating that the endogenous economic power is still being repaired. The low - interest - rate environment supports the valuation of equity assets, and the expected PPI recovery is beneficial to the cyclical sectors and the overall corporate profit expectations [3] - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the leading gainers included non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and electronics, while the leading decliners included coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and building decoration. The current market sector rotation shows a clear new - quality productivity orientation, with funds flowing from traditional cyclical, financial, and real - estate sectors to science - and - technology innovation, high - end manufacturing, and upstream material sectors [3] - **Reference View**: Main broad - based indices may enter a stage of bottom - seeking and stabilization [3] Gold - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: The US ADP employment in February added 63,000 jobs, higher than the market expectation of 50,000, strengthening the resilience of the labor market. The Middle East military conflict has entered the sixth day, causing concerns about energy supply and inflation transmission [4] - **Market Analysis**: On March 5, the Asian session of spot gold recovered part of the previous day's losses. The gold market is in a game between geopolitical risk - aversion demand and changes in monetary policy expectations. Strong employment data has led to a re - pricing of the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The strong US dollar index suppresses the valuation of gold [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Gold prices are expected to show high - volatility range - bound movement in the short term. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East situation and the upcoming non - farm payroll report [4][5] Silver - **External Price and Inventory**: The silver market performs weaker than gold. The COMEX registered deliverable silver inventory has dropped to a very low level of 88.77 million ounces, a significant decrease of about 30% compared to early January. China has implemented export controls on silver since January [6] - **Market Analysis**: Silver presents a pattern of "physical shortage support" and "industrial demand concerns" intertwined. If the inventory level further decreases, it may strengthen the physical - level support. Geopolitical conflicts may suppress manufacturing demand [6][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Silver is expected to follow the gold's trend in the short term, and its downside space may be relatively limited. Attention should be paid to COMEX inventory changes and global manufacturing PMI data [6][7] Chemical Industry PTA - **Spot Information**: The East China spot price is 5,805 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), and the basis is - 32 yuan/ton (+13 yuan/ton) [8] - **Market Analysis**: The US - Iran conflict has pushed up the cost price. The PTA processing fee has been significantly repaired. The average PTA processing interval in China is 416.31 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.13% and a year - on - year increase of 61.06%. The device start - up rate has rebounded to 76.53% (+6.17%). The industry shows a pattern of inventory accumulation, and the demand has been repaired after the festival [8] - **Reference View**: Short - term attention should be paid to the continuity of geopolitical disturbances and inventory pressure. The medium - term fundamentals are strong, but technical over - buying requires caution against correction risks [8] Ethylene Glycol - **Spot Information**: The spot price in East China is 4,170 yuan/ton (+196 yuan/ton), and the basis is - 14 yuan/ton (+90 yuan/ton) [9] - **Market Analysis**: After the festival, the production has steadily increased. The total production has reached 42.98 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.77%. The coal - chemical production is 15.83 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.96%. The port inventory in East China has increased. The demand has increased, but the high port inventory still suppresses the price [9] - **Reference View**: Attention should be paid to the cost - side oil price trend and the downstream resumption of work rhythm [9] Plastic - **Spot Information**: The mainstream spot prices in North China, East China, and South China have all increased [10] - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, the start - up rate of polyethylene devices in China has decreased slightly. The demand side shows that the overall start - up rate of downstream enterprises is 18.22%. The inventory of polyethylene production enterprises is 57.97 million tons. The futures price has risen for four consecutive days due to the Iran situation. In the short term, polyethylene will mainly fluctuate in a range, and there may be upward space after inventory digestion and full resumption of work by downstream enterprises [10] - **Reference View**: It is expected that plastic will fluctuate in a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [10] Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1188 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. There are slight differences among regions [11] - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, the overall start - up rate of soda ash is 86.77%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.73%, and the production is 80.70 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.61 million tons. The manufacturer's inventory has increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The demand is average. The market may enter a stage of game between weak reality and external factors [11] - **Reference View**: The futures market rebounded slightly yesterday. In the short term, it is recommended to focus on bottom - range fluctuations [11] Glass - **Spot Information**: The market price of 5mm large - plate glass in the Shahe area is 1023 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. There are slight differences among regions [13] - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, the start - up rate of float glass is 71.19%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.58%, and the weekly production is 103.84 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13 million tons. The inventory has continued to accumulate. The terminal demand is weak, and the downstream start - up is weak. The market may be disturbed by global energy price surges and the two sessions [13] - **Reference View**: The futures market fluctuated narrowly yesterday. In the short term, it is recommended to adopt a bottom - range fluctuation strategy [13] Methanol - **Spot Information**: The spot prices in Zhejiang, Xinjiang, and Hebei have different fluctuations [14] - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the methanol main contract MA605 has decreased. The port inventory has decreased slightly. The domestic methanol industry start - up rate is high, but the demand from MTO and MTBE devices and traditional downstream industries is weak. The geopolitical trading logic and logistics uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz increase market uncertainty [14] - **Reference View**: The futures price may fluctuate in a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the risk of a decline due to the ebb of geopolitical premium or oil price fluctuations. Track the resumption progress of Iranian devices, port inventory reduction, and the increase in MTO device load [14] Agricultural Products Corn - **Spot Information**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China, North China, and Huanghuai are provided [15] - **Market Analysis**: The February USDA supply - demand report has limited adjustments to US corn data. Domestically, the corn quality in the Northeast is good, but the short - term supply is tight due to weather and state - reserve rotation. If the weather warms up, the market supply may increase, and downstream enterprises have limited willingness to accept high - priced corn [15] - **Reference View**: The short - term upward space of corn is limited, and there may be a correction risk [15] Peanut - **Spot Price**: Peanut prices are mainly stable, with individual regions having slight adjustments. The market trading is not active [16] - **Market Analysis**: After the Lantern Festival, the market trading is gradually recovering, and the supply may increase with the temperature rise. The demand from small food factories has not started, but some large oil mills have raised the purchase price. The overall supply - demand pattern is weak [16] - **Reference View**: Peanut futures are expected to maintain range - bound movement, and cautious operation is recommended [16] Cotton - **Spot Information**: The China Cotton Spot Price Index (CC3128B) is 16,583 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of Xinjiang cotton is 16,396 yuan/ton [17] - **Market Analysis**: The US Department of Agriculture expects a decline in production and ending inventory in China and the US, and the macro - environment is favorable for demand. The new cotton planting will start in March, and the cotton planting area is expected to decline in the long term. The downstream enterprises are resuming work, and the peak consumption season is coming [17] - **Reference View**: Cotton prices will fluctuate in a range in the short term, and short - term operations are recommended [17] Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of soybean meal in different regions vary [18] - **Market Analysis**: Globally, the external market trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and biodiesel - stimulated domestic demand. South American soybeans are in the harvest season, and the market expects a bumper harvest. Domestically, high costs and abundant supply are in a game, and the downstream replenishment is limited [18] - **Reference View**: Soybean meal may fluctuate in a range, and cautious operation is recommended [18] Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of soybean oil in different regions have slightly increased [19] - **Market Analysis**: Globally, geopolitical conflicts and bio - fuel policies have pushed up the price of US soybean oil. Domestically, soybean oil is entering the off - season, and the market is dominated by macro - emotions [19] - **Reference View**: Soybean oil has stopped rising and is adjusting. Attention should be paid to the upper pressure [19] Rapeseed Meal - **Spot Market**: The price of imported powder meal in Macong Port is RM2605 + 40 yuan/ton, and the basis remains unchanged [20] - **Market Analysis**: The suspension of the 100% tariff on Canadian oil cakes is optimistic for US soybean demand, but the pressure from Brazilian soybean harvest may suppress the price. The supply is expected to recover, and the downstream demand is weak [20] - **Reference View**: The 2605 contract of rapeseed meal may fluctuate in the short term [20] Rapeseed Oil - **Spot Market**: The basis price of imported and pressed tertiary rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang is OI05 + 450 yuan/ton, and the basis remains unchanged [21] - **Market Analysis**: The US - Iran conflict and the expected US bio - fuel policy have driven up the price of domestic vegetable oils. The increase in the anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed has limited impact. The current market is in the off - season, and the spot market is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment [21] - **Reference View**: For the 2605 contract of rapeseed oil, attention should be paid to the upper price platform pressure and risk prevention [21] Pig - **Spot Market**: The average price of ternary hybrid pigs in major production and sales areas has decreased [22] - **Market Analysis**: The domestic pig market continues to be weak. The supply is abundant due to pre - Spring Festival concentrated slaughter and continuous release of production capacity. The demand is weak as consumers are still consuming pre - holiday stocks, and the slaughter enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The pig price is under pressure in the near term [22][23] - **Reference View**: Attention should be paid to the farming side's slaughter situation [23] Egg - **Spot Market**: The average egg price in the main production areas has decreased [24] - **Market Analysis**: The previous - period replenishment was relatively low, and the new - laying pressure is not large. The egg - laying hen inventory is still declining. The culling rhythm of old hens is slow, but the farming side's culling willingness may increase as the egg price falls. The demand is weak after the end of stocking, and the egg price may continue to run at a low level [24] - **Reference View**: Medium - long - term attention should be paid to the farming side's replenishment and culling situation [24] Metals Shanghai Copper - **Spot Information**: The spot price of East China copper is 101,575 (+145) yuan/ton, with a premium of 445 [25] - **Market Analysis**: The supply - side pressure is significant, with the domestic social inventory reaching a historical high. The copper concentrate processing fee is in a deep negative range, indicating a tight supply at the mine end. The demand shows a structural differentiation, with the downstream processing link weak but the power grid investment and new - energy - related orders strong. The short - term price is suppressed by high inventory and spot discounts, but there is support from geopolitical risk premium and post - Lantern - Festival resumption of work [25] - **Reference View**: It is resistant to decline when the sector sentiment is weak. Aggressive investors can participate at low prices when the sentiment is right, while conservative investors can wait and see [25] Shanghai Aluminum - **Spot Information**: The Shanghai spot aluminum price is 25,082 yuan/ton, up 706, with a discount of 140 [25] - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased the instability of overseas aluminum supply, boosting the aluminum price. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and the supply is rigid. The demand is weak due to the traditional off - season and high prices. The inventory has increased [26] - **Reference View**: Operation requires caution, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [26] Alumina - **Spot Information**: The national average price of alumina is 2,675 yuan/ton, up 4, with a discount of 125 [27] - **Market Analysis**: The supply of bauxite has increased, and the domestic alumina production capacity is being restored. The supply is expected to be in excess, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has continued to increase [27] - **Reference View**: In the short term, the long - and short - term forces are temporarily balanced due to overseas and domestic supply - side disturbances, but the supply - excess expectation remains unchanged [28] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Spot Information**: The average spot price of aluminum alloy is 24,30

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price has increased and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply gap caused by Iran's supply disruption still exists. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the oil price should be mainly operated with a mid - term layout. The oil price has reached the upper limit of the critical range [2]. - For methanol, it has fully included the current geopolitical premium, and there is no major short - term supply - demand contradiction, so it is recommended to take profits at high prices [5]. - For urea, although the downstream demand has a positive expectation, the supply - demand situation is prosperous, and the marginal impact is mostly about quotas. There is no significant positive potential in terms of quotas, and the fundamental negative expectation is coming, so it is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - For rubber, it is recommended to respond flexibly, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is recommended to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, and the fundamental situation is poor. It rebounds in the short term driven by the sentiment of crude oil cost [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. Wait for the profit to fall to a low level before observing the opportunity to go long [20]. - For polyethylene, the futures price rises. The PE valuation still has room to decline, and the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has decreased. The supply - side support for the price has returned, and the demand - side starts to recover seasonally [22]. - For polypropylene, the futures price falls. The supply - side pressure is relieved, and the downstream demand rebounds seasonally. It is recommended to go long the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. - For PX, the short - term inventory accumulation pattern will turn into a de - stocking cycle in March. The supply - demand structure of PX and PTA is strong, and there is an opportunity to go long following the crude oil price in the medium term [28]. - For PTA, it is difficult to turn into a de - stocking cycle. There is still room for the valuation to rise in the medium term, and it is recommended to go long following PX and crude oil at low prices [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry has a high overall load, and the port inventory accumulation pressure is large. There is an expectation of reducing production to improve the supply - demand pattern. There is an opportunity to go long at low prices due to the tension in the Iranian situation [33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 40.10 yuan/barrel, a 6.43% increase, at 664.10 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil closed up 50.00 yuan/ton, a 1.32% increase, at 3845.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 12.00 yuan/ton, a 0.28% decrease, at 4315.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - term bearish strategic allocation for crude oil; widen the price spread of different oil grades in North and South Africa and the Es Sider - Bonny/Girassol north - south spread at low prices before the mid - year production increase in Libya; short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread; short the INE - Brent inter - regional spread [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The spot price in Jiangsu changed by 50 yuan/ton, Henan by - 30 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 20 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 91.00 yuan/ton, at 2487 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 150 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: Since methanol has fully included the current geopolitical premium and there is no major short - term supply - demand contradiction, it is recommended to take profits at high prices [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong changed by - 10 yuan/ton, and Henan by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 8 yuan/ton, at 1814 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy**: Although the downstream demand has a positive expectation, the supply - demand situation is prosperous, and the marginal impact is mostly about quotas. There is no significant positive potential in terms of quotas, and the fundamental negative expectation is coming, so it is recommended to short at high prices [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price declined slightly. The market is driven by macro and capital factors. The future trend of rubber is facing challenges. The long side believes in the limited rubber production increase in Southeast Asia, the seasonal rise in the second half of the year, and the improvement of China's demand; the short side believes in the uncertain macro - expectation, increased supply, and seasonal off - peak demand. As of February 26, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 32.30%, up 18.78 percentage points from last week and down 36.25 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 38.35%, up 22.04 percentage points from last week and down 43.79 percentage points from the same period last year. As of February 23, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 136.6 million tons, a 5.4% increase from the previous month. As of February 24, 2026, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 6.28 million tons to 67.21 million tons compared with before the holiday [10][11]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to respond flexibly, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is recommended to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 21 yuan, at 5016 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4820 (+60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 196 (+39) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 120 (+10) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2100 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 800 (+20) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 634 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 82.1%, unchanged from the previous month; among them, the calcium carbide method was 81.7%, a 0.3% decrease from the previous month, and the ethylene method was 83.2%, a 0.7% increase from the previous month. The overall downstream operating rate was 17.1%, a 17.1% increase from the previous month. The in - factory inventory was 50.4 million tons (- 0.1), and the social inventory was 135.3 million tons (+1) [15]. - **Strategy**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral level, but the supply - side reduction is small, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic demand has not fully recovered from the off - peak season, and the demand side is under pressure. The cancellation of export tax rebates has stimulated short - term export rush, which is the only short - term fundamental support. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, and the price of caustic soda has rebounded. Overall, the domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, and the fundamental situation is poor. It rebounds in the short term driven by the sentiment of crude oil cost [16]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active contract of pure benzene was 7251 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton; the basis of pure benzene was - 236 yuan/ton, a decrease of 193 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 8700 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active contract of styrene was 8656 yuan/ton, an increase of 443 yuan/ton; the basis was 44 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan/ton increase. The BZN spread was 104.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36.25 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 79.85 yuan/ton, an increase of 186.45 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.24%, an increase of 3.16%; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 17.56 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 30.45%, a decrease of 2.53%; the operating rate of PS was 49.40%, a decrease of 0.30%, the operating rate of EPS was 12.18%, a decrease of 12.83%, and the operating rate of ABS was 70.70%, an increase of 1.80% [19]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the operating rate of styrene is fluctuating at a high level. The port inventory of styrene is continuously increasing, and the overall operating rate of three S products is decreasing. Wait for the profit to fall to a low level before observing the opportunity to go long [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 7393 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The basis was 7 yuan/ton, a 62 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 86.73%, a 0.54% increase from the previous month. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 53.62 million tons, a decrease of 4.35 million tons from the previous month, and the inventory of traders was 5.77 million tons, an increase of 1.08 million tons from the previous month. The average downstream operating rate was 20%, a 1.78% increase from the previous month. The LL5 - 9 spread was 152 yuan/ton, a 67 - yuan/ton increase from the previous month [21]. - **Strategy**: The futures price rises. The PE valuation still has room to decline, and the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has decreased. The supply - side support for the price has returned, and the demand - side starts to recover seasonally [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 7458 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7525 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton. The basis was 67 yuan/ton, a 173 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 73.61%, a 0.54% decrease from the previous month. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 65.51 million tons, a decrease of 8.48 million tons from the previous month, the inventory of traders was 21.26 million tons, a decrease of 3.71 million tons from the previous month, and the port inventory was 8.14 million tons, a decrease of 0.72 million tons from the previous month. The average downstream operating rate was 36.74%, an 8.49% increase from the previous month. The LL - PP spread was - 65 yuan/ton, an 86 - yuan/ton increase from the previous month. The PP5 - 9 spread was 277 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous month [23][24]. - **Strategy**: The futures price falls. The supply - side pressure is relieved, and the downstream demand rebounds seasonally. It is recommended to go long the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 256 yuan, at 8344 yuan. The PX CFR rose 28 US dollars, at 1055 US dollars. The basis was 47 yuan (- 47), and the 5 - 7 spread was 192 yuan (+92). The operating load in China was 90.4%, a 2% decrease from the previous month; the Asian operating load was 83.2%, a 1.7% decrease from the previous month. A 2.5 - million - ton plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical was under maintenance, a 770,000 - ton plant of South Korea's S - oil was under maintenance, and a 550,000 - ton plant of GS was operating at a reduced load. The PTA operating load was 81%, a 4.4% increase from the previous month. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 415,000 tons of PX to China in February, a year - on - year increase of 7,000 tons. The inventory at the end of December was 4.65 million tons, a 190,000 - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation cost, PXN was 251 US dollars (- 31), South Korea's PX - MX was 140 US dollars (- 3), and the naphtha cracking spread was 171 US dollars (+35) [27]. - **Strategy**: The short - term inventory accumulation pattern will turn into a de - stocking cycle in March. The supply - demand structure of PX and PTA is strong, and there is an opportunity to go long following the crude oil price in the medium term [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 126 yuan, at 5820 yuan. The East China spot price rose 195 yuan, at 5800 yuan. The basis was - 34 yuan (+12), and the 5 - 9 spread was 182 yuan (+84). The PTA operating load was 81%, a 4.4% increase from the previous month. The downstream operating load was 83.5%, a 4% increase from the previous month. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 27 was 2.597 million tons, a 95,000 - ton increase from the previous month. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 58 yuan to 295 yuan, and the processing fee on the disk decreased by 42 yuan to 346 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to turn into a de - stocking cycle. There is still room for the valuation to rise in the medium term, and it is recommended to go long following PX and crude oil at low prices [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 106 yuan, at 4184 yuan. The East China spot price rose 86 yuan, at 4132 yuan. The basis was - 31 yuan (+21), and the 5 - 9 spread was 24 yuan (+31). The supply - side operating load of ethylene glycol was 74.1%, a 4.9% decrease from the previous month. Among them, the operating load of syngas - based production was 83%, a 1% decrease from the previous month, and the operating load of ethylene - based production was 69.2%, a 7% decrease from the previous month. Some plants were under maintenance or operating at a reduced load. The downstream operating load was 83.5%, a 4% increase from the previous month. The forecast of imported arrivals was 108,000 tons, and the departure from East China ports on March 4 was 16,000 tons. The port inventory was 1.002 million tons, a 20,000 - ton increase from the previous month. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 1904 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 772 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was - 273 yuan. The price of ethylene increased to 800 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal rebounded to 670 yuan [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is oscillating bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The urea price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is necessary to focus on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the progress of agricultural demand [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the price of the urea main contract 2605 dropped by 13 yuan to 1814 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central - China mainstream area fell by 10 yuan to 1850 yuan/ton. The long - position increased by 3820 lots to 272,000 lots, and the short - position decreased by 1948 lots to 311,000 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 218,000 tons, unchanged from the previous working day and 21,500 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate yesterday was 92.57%, 5.22% higher than 87.35% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.0981 million tons, a decrease of 77,900 tons or 6.62% from the previous period. The sample inventory at urea ports is 190,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 37%, a month - on - month increase of 3.6%, and the operating rate of melamine is 55.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.2% [1] - India's RCF urea import tender: The latest shipping date is March 31st. A total of 20 suppliers participated, with a total bid volume of over 3.07 million tons. The lowest offer on the east coast is CFR512 dollars/ton, and on the west coast is CFR508 dollars/ton. India intends to purchase 1.5 million tons in this tender [1] - Import and export in December 2025: Urea imports were 35.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 82.11%, and the average import price was 2963.69 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 52.11%. Urea exports were 278,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 53.75%, and the average export price was 398.27 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 56.64% [1] - Oil prices: Due to concerns about supply constraints from the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the unresolved geopolitical risks, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose 6.35 dollars/barrel to 81.01 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 8.51%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract rose 4.01 dollars/barrel to 85.41 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 4.93%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2604 contract rose 41.7 to 665.7 yuan/barrel and rose 8.3 to 674 yuan/barrel in night trading [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Over the weekend, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalated severely, and domestic crude oil continued to soar. The RCF price of India's urea import tender was announced, and overseas urea prices continued to rise. Middle and downstream buyers are cautious about high - price purchases, while upstream factories currently face little pressure [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Hold long positions cautiously [1]