Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]

原油产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月14日 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 5月14日 | 2月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | Brent | 66.53 | 66.63 | -0.10 | -0.15% | | | WTI | 63.59 | 63.67 | -0.08 | -0.13% | 美元/桶 | | SC | 491.00 | 482.80 | 8.20 | 1.70% | 元/桶 | | Brent M1-M3 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | WTI M1-M3 | 0.95 | 0.93 | 0.02 | 2.15% | 美元/桶 | | SC M1-M3 | 12.20 | 12.90 | -0.70 | -5.43% | 元/桶 | | Brent-WTI | 2.94 | 2.96 | -0.02 | -0.68% | | | EFS | 1.15 | 1.11 ...

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Methanol Daily Report [1] - Date: May 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Data Sources: Wind, CCB Futures Research and Development Department [5] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the Chinese methanol market remains "supply increasing and demand weak". The direct impact of Sino-US economic and trade negotiations on the supply and demand of this product is relatively limited. In the short term, focus should be on the impact of macro factors on traders' sentiment and potential adjustments to tariff policies. In the short term, the main regional markets may show a stable and slightly rebounding trend following external factors. In the medium to long term, considering the gradual return of supply growth, relatively limited demand growth, and poor profits in many downstream industries, the methanol market still needs to be vigilant against the risk of the trading logic gradually returning to the fundamentals after the boost of macro-positive factors. In the short term, it is still regarded as a low-level oscillating rebound [5]. - From a technical perspective, on the hourly line cycle, the MACD fast and slow lines are both above the zero axis, and the RSI is about to enter the overbought area again, so pay attention to the callback after overbought. On the daily line cycle, the MACD fast and slow lines are still below the zero axis, with a confirmed bottom divergence, a stop-fall rebound, and the red bars continue to lengthen. In the short term, it is expected to operate in an oscillating rebound [6]. Group 4: Market Review and Outlook - On Tuesday's close, the methanol weighted contract increased positions and rebounded, with an increase of 10,064 lots in the weighted contract and 6,568 lots in the 09 main contract. The weighted contract showed a trend of opening high, rising, falling back, and then rising again during the day, and finally closed with a small real-body positive line with long upper and lower shadows, with an overall increase of 0.88%. The average spot transaction price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu today was 2,438 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - Futures market quotes: The MA2501 contract opened at 2,346, closed at 2,354, with a high of 2,371, a low of 2,319, a rise of 0.86%, a trading volume of 52,758, an open interest of 163,172, an open interest change of 6,087, and a speculation degree of 0.32. The MA2505 contract opened at 2,376, closed at 2,380, with a high of 2,380, a low of 2,338, a rise of 1.80%, a trading volume of 990, an open interest of 3,319, an open interest change of -542, and a speculation degree of 0.30. The MA2509 contract opened at 2,290, closed at 2,291, with a high of 2,308, a low of 2,256, a rise of 0.93%, a trading volume of 766,446, an open interest of 764,051, an open interest change of 6,569, and a speculation degree of 1.00 [7] Group 5: Industry News - A 3-million-ton green methanol integrated project in Ningxia, with an investment of approximately 10 billion yuan, has been approved. The project is a cooperation between Lingwu City and Shanxi Jinyuan Biomass Technology Co., Ltd. It will involve black corn cultivation, anthocyanin purification, fecal waste resource utilization, source-network-load-storage and new energy power generation projects, and biomass-to-methanol production. After completion, it will inject strong impetus into the construction of a modern energy system in Yinchuan and provide a "Yinchuan model" for the large-scale application of green methanol in China. Each ton of methanol produced can absorb 1.6 tons of carbon dioxide, and in the front-end cultivation stage, each mu of saline-alkali-tolerant black corn can sequester 2 tons of carbon. The project brings together high-quality resources from partners such as Meijin Energy, Air Liquide, and Weilili Group [12] Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the basis of the main contract, the price difference between production and sales areas, futures prices and warehouse receipt quantities, the price difference between MA09 and MA01, the profits of three methanol production processes, and overseas methanol market prices [15][16][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Urea - Despite high domestic urea daily production, short - term maintenance led to a decline. The release of aid - related export orders from May to June and the upcoming summer top - dressing season are expected to support the market. However, price increases will be cautious, and the market is likely to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [5]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices continued to fluctuate at a high level. In the short term, after the market digests macro - level positives, it may focus on the impact of geopolitical factors on supply. Oil prices are expected to remain at a relatively high level. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, and consider strategies to capture volatility on the options side [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply - demand outlook is improving, but the current spot supply is still loose. Consider opportunities such as long PX05 and short crude oil [18]. - PTA: Supply - demand may gradually weaken, and the absolute price will follow the cost side. TA01 is expected to oscillate between 4800 - 5000 [18]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply - demand will gradually weaken, and there is pressure on the upside in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to port inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates [18]. - Short Fiber: The processing fee is expected to be compressed, and the absolute price will follow the cost side. PF02 is expected to operate between 6800 - 7100 [18]. - Bottle Chip: The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the absolute price will follow the cost side. Consider short - term short - selling strategies [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply is in a concentrated maintenance phase, and the demand from the alumina industry is improving. The spot price is rising, and the futures market is strong. Consider short - term short - selling opportunities near the resistance level of 2550 [26]. - PVC: Although the futures market has strengthened slightly, the supply - demand surplus problem persists. It is recommended to wait and see during price rebounds and consider short - selling in the medium term [26]. Styrene - In the short term, styrene is expected to remain strong, but be cautious about chasing high prices. The operating range of 06 is expected to move up to 7000 - 7600. Pay attention to the continuity of spot transactions [29]. Polyolefins (PE and PP) - The supply pressure of plastics will gradually decrease in May. The supply pressure of PP will ease slightly in the second quarter. Pay attention to the restocking and export situation of plastic products [32]. Methanol - The inland valuation has downward pressure, and the supply - demand situation is loose. The port has entered a inventory - building period. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract at high prices [35][37]. Summary by Directory Urea Futures Prices - On May 12, the 01 contract closed at 1801 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from May 9; the 05 contract closed at 1925 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the 09 contract closed at 1897 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the methanol main contract closed at 2270 yuan/ton, up 1.93% [1]. Futures Contract Spreads - On May 12, the spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 124 yuan/ton, up 14.48% from May 9; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 28 yuan/ton, down 33.33% [2]. Upstream Raw Materials - As of May 13, the prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite small pieces, steam coal, and synthetic ammonia remained unchanged compared to May 12 [3]. Spot Market Prices - As of May 13, domestic and international spot prices of urea remained unchanged [3]. Supply - Demand Overview - Daily data: Domestic urea daily production decreased by 1.20% to 19.72 million tons on May 8 compared to before. - Weekly data: Domestic urea weekly production increased by 0.21% to 139.60 million tons; factory inventory decreased by 10.58% to 106.56 million tons; port inventory increased by 12.71% to 13.30 million tons [5]. Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - On May 13, Brent crude oil was at 64.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.64% from May 12; WTI was at 61.96 dollars/barrel, up 0.02%; SC was at 474.80 yuan/barrel, up 1.34% [14]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - On May 12, Brent crude oil (July) was at 64.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.6% from May 9; WTI (June) was at 61.95 dollars/barrel, up 1.5% [18]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - On May 12, POY150/48 price was 6675 yuan/ton, up 1.4% from May 9; FDY150/96 price was 6845 yuan/ton, up 1.7% [18]. PX - related - CFR China PX was at 785 dollars/ton on May 12, unchanged from May 9 [18]. PTA - related - PTA East China spot price was 4840 yuan/ton on May 12, up 2.7% from May 9 [18]. MEG - related - MEG port inventory was 75.1 million tons on May 12, down 6.8% from May 6 [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures Prices - On May 12, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2593.8 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from before; East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 4660 yuan/ton, unchanged [22]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - FOB East China port caustic soda was at 395 dollars/ton on May 8, down 1.3% from May 1 [22]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - Caustic soda industry operating rate was 87.5% on May 9, up 1.3% from May 2; PVC total operating rate was 77.9%, up 1.4% [24]. Styrene Upstream and Related Prices - On May 12, Brent crude oil (July) was at 64.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.6% from May 9; WTI (June) was at 61.95 dollars/barrel, up 1.5% [29]. Styrene - related - Styrene East China spot price was 7530 yuan/ton on May 12, up 5.0% from May 9 [29]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - EPS ordinary material (East China) was at 8250 yuan/ton on May 12, down 1.2% from May 9 [29]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene East China port inventory was 13.40 million tons on May 7, up 10.7% from April 30; styrene East China port inventory was 6.25 million tons, down 15.3% [29]. Polyolefins (PE and PP) Prices and Spreads - On May 12, L2505 closed at 7282 yuan/ton, up 0.72% from May 9; PP2505 closed at 7100 yuan/ton, up 0.34% [32]. Operating Rates and Inventory - PE device operating rate was 84.1% on May 12, down 0.91% from before; PP device operating rate was 79.7%, up 7.2% [32]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - On May 12, MA2505 closed at 2338 yuan/ton, up 2.10% from May 9; the spread between MA2505 and MA2509 was 68 yuan/ton, up 7.94% [35]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Methanol enterprise inventory was 30.391% on May 12, up 7.26% from before; upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 75.65%, up 1.64% [35].

行业 甲醇日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 13 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The 2509 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, volatile upward movement, and a significant rise on Monday. The price closed up 2.18% at 15,025 yuan/ton. Positive factors include the progress of Sino - US economic and trade talks, the postponement of the natural rubber tapping season in Thailand, and the recovery of the domestic tire industry's raw material procurement after the holiday [6]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The 2509 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, volatile stabilization, and a slight rebound on Monday, closing up 1.79% at 2,270 yuan/ton. The improvement in the macro - atmosphere has led to an increase in risk appetite and a stronger willingness to go long [6]. - The domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, stabilization, and a significant rebound on Monday, closing up 3.05% at 472.6 yuan/barrel. The improvement in the macro - atmosphere has led to an increase in risk appetite and a stronger willingness to go long [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,500 tons or 0.9%. The bonded area inventory increased by 4.3% to 85,000 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.38% to 529,200 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 2.17 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.16 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tire enterprises in Shandong was 44.80%, a week - on - week decrease of 14.74% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.40 percentage points. The operating load of semi - steel tire enterprises was 58.40%, a week - on - week decrease of 8.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 17.80 percentage points [9]. - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared to 82,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat [9]. - In April 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 59.8%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.2 percentage points [10]. Methanol - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.14%, a week - on - week increase of 3.75%, a month - on - month increase of 4.16%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 9.89%. The average weekly methanol production was 2.0578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 87,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 352,000 tons [11]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.05%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%. The acetic acid operating rate was 92.58%, a week - on - week increase of 6.78%. The MTBE operating rate was 46.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.68%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.73%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.72 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 4.43 percentage points [12]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the domestic methanol to olefin futures profit was 289 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 151 yuan/ton [12]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 348,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 101,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 256,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 123,900 tons. The methanol inventory in East China ports was 229,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69,800 tons, and the inventory in South China ports was 119,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,800 tons [12]. - As of the week of May 8, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 303,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,500 tons or 7.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 10,400 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 86,100 tons [13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 479, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 20. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 98,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 267,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 438.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.032 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 21.152 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 24.961 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 740,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 399 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 580,000 barrels [13]. - The US refinery operating rate was 89.0%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 2.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 0.50 percentage points [13]. - Since May 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a volatile and weakening trend. As of May 6, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 175,428 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 1,781 contracts and a significant increase of 15,065 contracts or 9.39% compared to the April average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 96,156 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 10,566 contracts and a significant decrease of 58,149 contracts or 37.68% compared to the April average [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,600 yuan/ton | +150 yuan/ton | 15,025 yuan/ton | +405 yuan/ton | - 425 yuan/ton | - 405 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,417 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,270 yuan/ton | +43 yuan/ton | +147 yuan/ton | - 43 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 436.6 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 472.6 yuan/barrel | +10.2 yuan/barrel | - 36.0 yuan/barrel | - 10.4 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [17][21][24] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic methanol port inventory, inland social inventory of methanol, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][31][33] - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [41][43][45]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term of the MA2509 contract is expected to be strong due to the unexpectedly positive results of the Sino - US negotiations, but investors should not blindly chase the rise and need to control risks. It is also expected that the short - term enterprise inventory may slightly accumulate, while the port methanol inventory is expected to decline [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2,270 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 64 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 757,482 lots, down 10,354 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 68,779 lots, up 18,533 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,380, unchanged [3]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,405 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2,100 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The East - Northwest price difference is 305 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 135 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan. The CFR price at the Chinese main port is 264 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 340 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 230 euros/ton, down 1 euro; the price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 76 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar [3]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.79 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.17 US dollars [3]. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 37.95 tons, down 1.29 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 18.24 tons, up 3.74 tons. The methanol import profit is 100.81 yuan/ton, up 11.4 yuan; the monthly import volume is 47.3 tons, down 8.88 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 237,800 tons, down 11,800 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 92.17%, up 2.2% [3]. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 50.54%, down 0.03%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 8.97%, down 0.69%; the acetic acid operating rate is 87.58%, down 1.26%; the MTBE operating rate is 61.37%, up 0.58%; the olefin operating rate is 82.55%, down 0.8%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 580 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 21.64%, up 0.24%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.28%, up 0.59%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 17.64%, down 0.38%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.63%, down 0.39% [3]. Industry News - As of May 7, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 30.39 tons, up 2.06 tons or 7.26% from the previous period; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 23.78 tons, down 1.19 tons or 4.75%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 55.19 tons, up 1.45 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 1.29 tons, while that in South China increased by 2.74 tons. As of May 8, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 82.48%, down 0.87% month - on - month [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Urea - Despite high daily production, short - term maintenance led to a decline in daily output. The new export policy allows the release of supportive export orders from May to June, and the upcoming summer top - dressing season in May - June is expected to boost agricultural demand. Market price increases are likely to be cautious, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [3]. Crude Oil - Oil prices continued to rise, driven by the progress of China - US trade negotiations and geopolitical uncertainties. In the short term, the market risk appetite has increased, but no strong trend has been formed yet, and the sustainability of the macro - drive needs to be observed. The monthly - line fluctuation ranges are adjusted to [57, 67] for WTI, [60, 70] for Brent, and [450, 510] for SC [7]. Styrene - Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium term, putting pressure on chemical products. Pure benzene supply has decreased recently, but overall supply pressure remains due to imports. Styrene downstream demand is weak, and supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy for styrene, with the upper resistance for the near - term contract at 7300 [13]. PE and PP - For LLDPE, although imports are expected to decline significantly from May to June and supply pressure will gradually decrease, inventory pressure is still large under the situation of weak supply and demand, and there is a long - term downward risk. For PP, supply pressure eases slightly during the second - quarter maintenance season, but production is still high, demand is weakening, and there is also a long - term downward risk [17]. Caustic Soda - In the medium - to - long term, the demand for caustic soda from alumina is insufficient, and new production capacity is being added, so the supply - demand outlook is weak. In the short term, caustic soda is in the maintenance phase, and the price has been supported. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy, with the near - term resistance at 2550 [26]. PVC - The supply - demand surplus of PVC is prominent. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are mainly based on price - for - volume. The long - term surplus problem is difficult to solve, and the price is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, but there is a risk of price rebound during the maintenance period [26]. Methanol - The inland valuation has a downward pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are differentiated. The port has entered a stock - building period, and the MTO low - operation rate suppresses demand. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract on rallies [35][38]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Tight supply and short - term strong demand support its price, but the rebound space is limited. PX09 is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and PX9 - 1 is in a short - term positive spread situation [40]. - PTA: The supply - demand pattern remains tight in the short term, and the price is expected to be relatively strong compared to oil prices, but the rebound is suppressed. TA09 is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and TA9 - 1 is in a short - term positive spread and medium - term reverse spread situation [40]. - MEG: Domestic supply is expected to increase in May, but short - term de - stocking is expected due to high polyester load and reduced imports. EG09 is expected to be strong in the short term [40]. - Short - fiber: Inventory pressure is low in the short term, but the driving force is weaker than that of raw materials. The processing fee is under pressure, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [40]. - Bottle - chip: Supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. The processing fee is supported, and the main - contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 550 yuan/ton [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - The prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts and the methanol main contract all increased, with increases ranging from 0.22% to 1.26% [1]. Contract Spreads - The spreads of 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01, and UR - MA main contracts changed, with changes ranging from - 16.00% to 44.83% [1]. Main Positions - The long and short positions of the top 20 increased, with the long positions increasing by 2.05% and the short positions increasing by 2.51%. The long - short ratio decreased slightly [1]. Upstream Raw Materials - Most upstream raw material prices remained stable, except for the port price of steam - coal in Qinhuangdao, which decreased by 0.78% [1]. Spot Market Prices - Spot prices in most regions increased, with increases ranging from 0.53% to 2.16% [1]. Supply - Demand Overview - Daily production decreased slightly, with a 1.20% decline in domestic daily urea production. Weekly production increased slightly by 0.21%, and factory inventory decreased by 10.58% while port inventory increased by 12.71% [3]. Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased, with increases ranging from 0.34% to 1.34%. Spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS also changed [7]. Product Prices and Spreads - Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, with increases ranging from 0.53% to 0.71%. Spreads also changed [7]. Crack Spreads - Crack spreads of various refined products changed, with increases ranging from 0.28% to 4.28% for some products and decreases for others [7]. Styrene Upstream - Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. increased, with increases ranging from 0.8% to 2.5%. The opening rates of domestic pure benzene and styrene increased [10][13]. Spot and Futures - The spot price of styrene in East China decreased slightly by 0.1%, while futures prices EB2506 and EB2507 increased by 1.0% and 1.1% respectively [11]. Overseas Quotes and Import Profits - Overseas quotes of styrene increased slightly, but the import profit decreased by 11.4% [12]. Industry Chain Inventory - Inventories of pure benzene and styrene ports decreased, while inventories of some downstream products also changed [13]. PE and PP Prices and Spreads - PE and PP futures prices mostly decreased, and the spreads between different contracts changed. Spot prices also decreased slightly [17]. Non - standard Prices - Most non - standard PE and PP prices decreased or remained stable [17]. Upstream and Downstream Opening Rates - PE and PP device opening rates decreased, and downstream weighted opening rates also decreased slightly [17]. Inventory - PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, with increases of 38.99% and 19.76% respectively [17]. Caustic Soda and PVC Spot and Futures - For caustic soda, the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased by 0.7%. For PVC, the prices of some futures contracts changed, with increases or decreases [21]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The FOB price of caustic soda in East China decreased by 1.3%, and the FOB price of PVC in Tianjin decreased by 1.6% [22][23]. Supply - The opening rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries increased slightly [24]. Demand - The opening rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased [25][26]. Inventory - The PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory increased slightly [26]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - Methanol futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and regional spreads also changed [35]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory and port inventory increased, and the weekly arrival volume increased by 12.50% [35]. Upstream and Downstream Opening Rates - The upstream domestic enterprise opening rate increased, and the downstream MTO device opening rate increased [35]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. increased, with increases ranging from 1.0% to 2.5% [40]. PX - related - PX prices and spreads changed, with the CFR China PX price increasing by 0.9% [40]. PTA - related - PTA prices and spreads changed, and the processing fees of PTA also changed [40]. MEG - related - MEG prices and spreads changed, and the port inventory decreased slightly [40]. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - Prices of POY, FDY, etc. increased, and cash flows and processing fees of polyester products also changed [40]. Industry Chain Opening Rates - Opening rates of various segments in the polyester industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Short - term cautious long [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term cautious long [3] - **Black Metals**: Short - term cautious short (steel and iron ore), short - term range - bound for ferroalloys [6][7][8] - **Energy Chemicals**: Varying trends, mostly short - term follow - up with crude oil and range - bound [9][10][11][12][13][14] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term limited upside for copper, short - term fluctuations for tin, and attention to aluminum's de - stocking [15][16] - **Agricultural Products**: Different trends for various sub - sectors, such as potential increase in domestic rapeseed buying interest, and complex trends for others [17][18][19] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Macro Perspective**: Overseas, the US - UK limited trade agreement and a significant drop in US initial jobless claims led to a short - term sharp rebound in the US dollar and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, progress in China - US trade negotiations, central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, and policy support for consumption are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [3]. - **Asset Allocation**: Short - term, equity indices may rebound with caution, treasury bonds may oscillate at high levels with caution, and different commodity sectors have different trends, generally with a cautious approach [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Macro** - Overseas: Trump announced a limited US - UK trade agreement, and the US initial jobless claims dropped significantly, causing the US dollar to rebound and global risk appetite to rise [3]. - Domestic: China - US high - level talks in Switzerland showed progress, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rate by 10BP, and the Ministry of Commerce planned to boost consumption, which is expected to increase domestic risk appetite [3]. **Equity Index** - Driven by sectors like military, auto services, and industrial equipment, the domestic stock market continued to rise. Favorable policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite, and short - term cautious long is recommended [4]. **Precious Metals** - The precious metals market declined on Thursday. The weakening of gold's safe - haven property due to the easing of trade tensions and the unclear US economic outlook. However, gold has long - term allocation value, and long - term positions can be built using a ratio spread structure if it corrects [4][5]. **Black Metals** - **Steel**: The steel market declined on Thursday. As May is the off - season, demand has decreased, and supply may also decline. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore declined on Thursday. Steel demand is weakening, and although the current iron ore supply is low, it is expected to increase in the second quarter. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The demand for ferroalloys is weakening. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are in a range - bound pattern, and a short - term range - bound view is recommended [7][8]. **Energy Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The US - UK trade agreement increased market confidence, leading to an increase in oil prices [9]. - **Asphalt**: The price followed crude oil and then rebounded. Inventory removal has stagnated, and it will continue to follow crude oil in the short term [9]. - **PX**: It rebounded, and it will maintain a tight balance and an oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: It will continue to reduce inventory in May, but there is a risk of a decline in downstream profits. It may oscillate at a high level in the short term [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is in a weak oscillation, and the inventory removal time will be postponed [10]. - **Short Fiber**: The downstream processing profit is decreasing, and it will oscillate at a high level following crude oil [11]. - **Methanol**: The price is oscillating downward, and the medium - term price may be under pressure [11][12]. - **PP**: The market price declined slightly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the medium - term may face demand negative feedback [13]. - **LLDPE**: The price is weakly adjusted. The downstream demand is weak, and the medium - term price is under pressure [14]. **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: The US - UK trade agreement boosted market sentiment, but high tariffs will limit the upside. The demand is about to enter the off - season [15][16]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory has decreased recently, but there has been cumulative inventory since May. The short - term may still fluctuate, and long positions should be gradually closed [16]. - **Tin**: The supply may increase, and the demand is about to enter the off - season. The short - term price will oscillate [16]. **Agricultural Products** - **US Soybeans**: About 15% of the US soybean planting area is affected by drought, and Canadian rapeseed may face adverse weather [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The oil mill operating rate increased, and the market's concern about the pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals has decreased. The spot basis price is high, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is increasing [17][18]. - **Oils and Fats**: The international oil market had a technical adjustment. The domestic oil market has a weak fundamental situation, and the palm oil price may continue to decline [18]. - **Pigs**: The piglet replenishment enthusiasm is average, and there may be pressure on the market in July. The price of LH09 may be more volatile [18]. - **Corn**: The short - term demand for deep - processing has decreased seasonally, and the futures price may decline for correction. The price increase is met with cautious downstream acceptance [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, OPEC's production increase has been fulfilled as scheduled. It is recommended that investors gradually take profits on dips, and it is not advisable to chase short positions excessively in the short term. In the current situation of low static inventory, going long on the positive spread on dips is still a good position [1]. - The domestic methanol supply is expected to continue to rise, imports will gradually increase, and traditional demand will gradually weaken. The supply - demand pattern will gradually weaken, and prices still face downward pressure. It is recommended to focus on short - selling on rallies for single - sided trading, and pay attention to reverse spreads for the 9 - 1 spread [3]. - For urea, it is expected that there will be some support at the bottom, and prices will tend to be strong. Traders with long positions at low levels can continue to hold, while those not in the market should wait for the market sentiment to cool down before considering long positions. The inter - month spread should focus on positive spreads on dips [5]. - Rubber prices have returned to range - bound trading. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][11]. - For styrene, pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [13]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the weak supply - demand situation [15]. - Polyethylene prices are expected to remain volatile in the short and medium term, while polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in May [17][18]. - PX and PTA are in the maintenance season, with short - term valuation support, but the upside of absolute prices is limited by weak crude oil. For ethylene glycol, the focus is on whether the inventory reduction expectation can be realized [20][21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose by $2.33, or 4.02%, to $60.28; Brent main crude oil futures rose by $2.17, or 3.56%, to $63.12; INE main crude oil futures fell by 7.20 yuan, or 1.54% [6]. - **Inventory Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.22 million barrels to 13.43 million barrels, a 1.63% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.18 million barrels to 8.91 million barrels, a 2.05% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.93 million barrels to 20.54 million barrels, an 8.59% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.54 million barrels to 42.88 million barrels, a 3.46% decrease [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On May 8, the 09 contract fell by 23 yuan/ton to 2216 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell by 42 yuan/ton, with a basis of +164 [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic enterprise start - up rates are gradually rising, and production is at a historically high level. Supply will continue to increase, imports will rise, and traditional demand will weaken [3]. - **Profit**: Enterprise profits have declined due to weak spot prices but remain at a high level overall. Future profits are expected to shift downstream, and production profits are expected to be further compressed [3]. - **Strategy**: Focus on short - selling on rallies for single - sided trading, pay attention to reverse spreads for the 9 - 1 spread, and look for long - position opportunities for the 09 contract PP - 3MA spread on dips [3]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On May 8, the 09 contract fell by 4 yuan/ton to 1882 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +18 [5]. - **Policy and Market**: The fertilizer export symposium pointed out that May - September is the fertilizer export window, and urea exports to India are prohibited. The total fertilizer export volume should not exceed the 2023 level. It is likely that partial exports will be gradually liberalized, but the intensity will be limited [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is gradually increasing, and the domestic market is in the peak season for summer top - dressing demand. Exports are highly uncertain [5]. - **Strategy**: Traders with long positions at low levels can continue to hold, while those not in the market should wait for the market sentiment to cool down before considering long positions. The inter - month spread should focus on positive spreads on dips [5]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Rubber prices have returned to range - bound trading, showing relative strength among industrial products [8]. - **Supply - Side Policy**: Thailand intends to postpone rubber tapping for one month to counter US tariff threats. If strictly implemented, rubber production is expected to decrease by 20 - 30 tons, but the market anticipates that the actual reduction may be less than 20 tons [9]. - **Demand and Inventory**: Tire factory start - up rates are declining. As of May 8, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up rate in Shandong was 44.75%, down 9.59 percentage points from last week and 4.44 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire start - up rate was 57.98%, down 11.14 percentage points from last week and 18.11 percentage points from the same period last year. As of May 4, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 135.5 tons, a 0.12% increase [10]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [11]. 3.5 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: On May 8, the 06 contract closed at 6936 (-105) yuan/ton, and the Jiangsu spot price was 7140 (-100) yuan/ton, with a basis of +204 (+8) yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side maintenance has ended and production is restarting, while demand remains weak. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are declining, and the production plans of white - goods manufacturers are weakening [13]. - **Inventory**: The absolute inventory at ports is at a low level, and inventory reduction this week may limit the decline in styrene prices [13]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [13]. 3.6 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell by 37 yuan to 4839 yuan, and the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4660 (-40) yuan/ton, with a basis of -179 (-3) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall start - up rate of PVC is 79.3%, a 0.7% week - on - week increase. The downstream start - up rate is 43.9%, a 4.2% decrease. Factory inventory is 41.1 tons (-0.9), and social inventory is 64 tons (-4.8) [15]. - **Cost and Profit**: Cost remains stable, and the profit pressure of integrated enterprises is high. There are still many maintenance plans for calcium - carbide - based production facilities [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, although inventory is being reduced rapidly, the supply - demand situation is weak. Further inventory reduction depends on maintenance intensity and exports. PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [15]. 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices are falling. The main contract closed at 7016 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan decrease, and the spot price was 7335 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan decrease, with a basis of 319 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan weakening [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the second quarter, new production capacity on the supply side is large, and the supply side may face pressure. The seasonal off - season is approaching, and demand for agricultural films is decreasing [17]. - **Inventory**: Production enterprise inventory is 57.54 tons, a 16.14 - ton increase, and trader inventory is 6.06 tons, a 0.75 - ton increase [17]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the downward trend is dominated by supply - side production capacity start - up. In the medium and long term, only a 50 - ton ExxonMobil No. 3 device is expected to start production in May, and prices are expected to remain volatile [17]. 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices are falling. The main contract closed at 6985 yuan/ton, a 44 - yuan decrease, and the spot price remained unchanged at 7280 yuan/ton, with a basis of 295 yuan/ton, a 44 - yuan strengthening [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May, there is no new production capacity on the supply side, and maintenance is at a high level. The downstream start - up rate is expected to decline seasonally [18]. - **Inventory**: Production enterprise inventory is 67.64 tons, an 11.16 - ton increase; trader inventory is 14.27 tons, a 1.32 - ton increase; and port inventory is 7.79 tons, a 0.17 - ton increase [18]. - **Outlook**: Polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in May [18]. 3.8 PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose by 116 yuan to 6404 yuan, and PX CFR rose by 10 dollars to 778 dollars, with a basis of 59 yuan (-27) and a 9 - 1 spread of 70 yuan (+34) [19][20]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: PX is still in the maintenance season. Chinese PX operating rate is 73%, and Asian operating rate is 67.9%. There are device restarts and maintenance [20]. - **Inventory and Import**: In April, South Korea's PX exports to China were 39 tons, a 9 - ton increase. Inventory at the end of March was 468 tons, unchanged month - on - month [20]. - **Valuation and Cost**: PXN is 206 dollars (+13), and naphtha crack spread is 115 dollars (+15) [20]. - **Outlook**: In the second quarter, domestic inventory is expected to continue to decline. The terminal textile and clothing orders are weak, and the industry faces medium - term negative feedback pressure. However, short - term terminal restocking has alleviated polyester inventory pressure, and the risk of negative feedback is postponed. The short - term valuation has support, but the upside of absolute prices is limited by weak crude oil [20]. 3.8.2 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose by 80 yuan to 4546 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 50 yuan to 4615 yuan, with a basis of 120 yuan (+12) and a 9 - 1 spread of 64 yuan (+62) [21]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: PTA is in the maintenance season, with an operating rate of 70.3%, a 7.4% decrease. There are device restarts and maintenance [21]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: The downstream operating rate is 94%, a 0.6% increase. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates are rising [21]. - **Inventory**: On May 6, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 254.2 tons, a 14.7 - ton decrease [21]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Spot processing fee decreased by 8 yuan to 375 yuan, and on - paper processing fee increased by 4 yuan to 345 yuan [21]. - **Outlook**: The industry faces medium - term negative feedback pressure, but short - term terminal restocking has alleviated polyester inventory pressure, and the risk of negative feedback is postponed. PTA short - term valuation has support, but the upside of absolute prices is limited by weak crude oil [21]. 3.8.3 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose by 23 yuan to 4222 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 7 yuan to 4262 yuan, with a basis of 70 yuan (+14) and a 9 - 1 spread of -7 yuan (+15) [22]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: The ethylene glycol operating rate is 69%, a 0.6% increase. There are device restarts, maintenance, and production - rate adjustments [22]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: The downstream operating rate is 94%, a 0.6% increase. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates are rising [22]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 79 tons, a 1 - ton decrease [22]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Naphtha - based production profit is -529 yuan, domestic ethylene - based production profit is -673 yuan, and coal - based production profit is 966 yuan. Cost remains stable [22]. - **Outlook**: The industry is in the inventory - reduction stage, but the actual inventory - reduction extent is limited due to high hidden inventory. The industry faces medium - term negative feedback risk, and the focus is on whether the inventory - reduction expectation can be realized [22].