Core Viewpoint - Xi'an is undergoing a significant transformation as it shifts from a model of "scale expansion" to "quality enhancement," aiming to improve urban governance and core competitiveness while promoting modernization in line with national strategies [3][5][20]. Group 1: Urban Development and Transformation - Xi'an has become the "first city in northern China for population growth," with a net increase of 89,400 residents expected in 2024, highlighting the challenges of urban carrying capacity [4][5]. - The city is focusing on transitioning its development model to address urban challenges, emphasizing integrated governance and resource optimization [5][6]. - The 2025 plan includes "deepening the reform of the development model for megacities," prioritizing functional quality enhancement and efficient resource allocation [5][10]. Group 2: Smart Governance and Infrastructure - Xi'an is leveraging digital technology for urban governance, with a big data platform enhancing traffic management and emergency response times [8][9]. - The city has implemented significant transportation projects, including the opening of the 8th metro line, which has expanded the metro network to over 400 kilometers [10]. - A comprehensive underground utility system has been developed, with 23,000 kilometers of various pipelines inspected and 20 substations built, increasing the city's power supply capacity to 16 million kilowatts [10][11]. Group 3: Spatial Planning and Resource Optimization - The approval of the "Overall Land and Space Planning (2021-2035)" marks a strategic blueprint for Xi'an's future development, focusing on ecological sustainability and efficient resource use [12][13]. - The city is implementing a "vertical growth" model to overcome horizontal expansion limitations, with over 370 large commercial buildings completed [14]. - Xi'an is actively revitalizing underutilized spaces, transforming old sites into community hubs and parks, thereby enhancing urban livability [15][17]. Group 4: Public Services and Community Well-being - The city is enhancing public services, with initiatives like community service centers and improved educational facilities, contributing to a higher quality of life for residents [18][19]. - Employment services have been expanded, with 180,800 new urban jobs created, and significant investments in healthcare and elderly care facilities [19]. - Xi'an's commitment to high-quality public services reflects its dedication to the "people-centered" urban development philosophy [19][20].

Group 1 - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that concerns over tariffs have resurfaced, potentially suppressing market sentiment in the short term, but the market is gradually becoming desensitized to tariff issues [1] - In April, industrial enterprise profits improved, driven by the effective implementation of "new" consumption incentive policies, which boosted downstream consumption and supported the midstream equipment manufacturing sector [1][2] - The manufacturing PMI showed overall recovery in May, with a rebound in export orders, highlighting the resilience of China's economic fundamentals, which will provide bottom support for the market [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. has issued renewed tariff threats, with recent announcements indicating an increase in steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, suggesting the Trump administration is preparing a "Plan B" for tariffs [1] - Despite the tariff challenges, new momentum industries are experiencing accelerated profit growth, significantly contributing to the economy [2] - June is a critical month for A-share dividends, with a focus on tracking capital flows and changes in industry prosperity to identify high-dividend investment opportunities [2] Group 3 - The emphasis on internal circulation is crucial, with a focus on service consumption and new consumption as important new drivers of economic growth [3] - External uncertainties are accelerating the internal circulation, with policies aimed at expanding and enhancing consumption quality [3]

《财富》指出，今年上榜的 500 家公司共创造了创纪录的 19.9 万亿美元（IT之家注：现汇率约合 143.29 万亿元人民币）营收和 1.87 万亿美元（现汇率约合 13.47 万亿元人民币）利润，2024 财年的入 榜门槛提升到 74 亿美元（现汇率约合 532.85 亿元人民币），相较 2023 年同比增长了 4%。 值得关注的是，今年榜单显示出医疗保健行业的强劲势头：医疗保健行业共创造了 3 万亿美元营收，在 前 25 名中占据了 8 席。相比之下，30 年前的 1995 年，前 25 名中还没有一家医疗保健公司。 IT之家 6 月 3 日消息，2025 年《财富》500 强榜单现已正式公布，沃尔玛和亚马逊连续第六年稳居榜单 前两名，而苹果则再次名列前茅，谷歌母公司 Alphabet 则成为前十名榜单中最赚钱的公司，IT之家附 相应榜单前十名如下： 参考相应榜单，苹果今年位列榜单第 4 名，整体表现保持了过去十年的稳定状态。自 2016 年以来，苹 果一直在第 3 名和第 4 名之间交替，与联合健康集团（UnitedHealth Group）、埃克森美孚（Exxon Mobil）、伯克希尔・哈撒韦（ ...

2025年4月27日，国际金融数据机构发布最新报告，中国对外债权总额突破2.5万亿美元，成为全球最大的债权国。 中巴经济走廊作为"一带一路"倡议中的旗舰项目，涉及总金额达620亿美元的基础设施建设，涵盖公路、铁路、光缆以及具有重要战略意义的瓜达尔港等项 目。这些项目将中国西部地区与印度洋的航运通道直接相连，充分体现了中巴全天候战略合作伙伴关系的深度与广度。 尽管西方国家渲染所谓"债务陷阱"，但中国对巴贷款中，60%为优惠利率贷款，20%为无息贷款，这些贷款的融资成本，远低于国际货币基金组织。瓜达尔 港43年的租约，不仅保障了中国的能源运输安全，还让巴基斯坦获得了港口运营分红。 2024年，该港吞吐量同比增长40%，带动周边就业20万人。这种共生关系在军事领域尤为显著：巴基斯坦军队70%的装备来自中国，有效牵制了印度的战略 重心，维护了中国西南边疆的稳定。 在这一庞大的债务网络中，四个国家因负债规模与还款方式引发广泛关注。这些国家不仅涉及发展中国家，也包含发达国家，其债务背后折射出复杂的国际 关系与经济博弈。 那你知道欠中国钱最多的是哪四个国家吗？今天我们就来聊一聊。 巴基斯坦以350亿美元债务排名第四，但其债 ...

Core Viewpoint - A new wave of standard updates will be implemented in June 2025, with 572 national, industry, and local standards covering various sectors, including agriculture, environmental protection, healthcare, cosmetics, petrochemicals, and textiles, aimed at promoting industrial upgrades and high-quality development [1][2]. Agriculture and Food Sector - 52 new standards will focus on high-standard farmland construction, oil inspection, and feed safety, providing technical support for agricultural production and food safety [4]. - Specific standards include GB/T 33130-2024 for high-standard farmland construction evaluation and GB/T 44965-2024 for the determination of β-carotene acid ethyl ester in feed using high-performance liquid chromatography [4][9]. Environmental Protection Sector - 18 new standards will address hazardous chemical monitoring, water resource management, and waste treatment, promoting environmental safety and resource efficiency [5][11]. Healthcare Sector - 50 new standards will cover medical devices, forensic identification, and drug testing, enhancing the scientific basis for judicial identification [5][11]. - Notable standards include GB/T 19267.13-2025 for the physicochemical testing of trace evidence in forensic science [5][12]. Cosmetics Sector - 23 new standards will focus on ingredient testing and microbial risk assessment, ensuring consumer health protection [5][11]. - Examples include SN/T 2291-2024 for the determination of dextromethorphan hydrobromide in imported cosmetics using liquid chromatography [5][13]. Petrochemical and Textile Sectors - The petrochemical sector will see 47 new standards, while the textile sector will have 40 new standards, focusing on chemical equipment safety, recycled plastics, and harmful substance testing in textiles [5][11]. - Key standards include GB/T 44958-2024 for chemical equipment safety management and GB/T 31126.2-2024 for the determination of perfluoro and polyfluoro compounds in textiles [5][14]. Overall Impact - The implementation of these new standards is expected to enhance the technical level and management capabilities across industries, driving industrial upgrades and sustainable development while providing consumers with safer, higher-quality products and services [6][11].

Macro Insights - The U.S. has decided to revoke student visas for Chinese students linked to the government or studying in key fields, which has been criticized by China's Foreign Ministry as a discriminatory act that harms the rights of Chinese students and disrupts cultural exchanges between the two countries [3] - The U.S. economy shrank by 0.2% in the first quarter, marking the first decline in three years, attributed to the impact of the trade war initiated by former President Trump [29] Financial Alerts - Several banks have begun to withdraw 5-year large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) as deposit rates are lowered, indicating a shift in banks' strategies to optimize deposit structures under pressure [35] - The average monthly cancellation of private fund managers has reached nearly 100, reflecting a trend of industry consolidation amid stricter regulations [34] Company Alerts - Li Auto reported a first-quarter adjusted net profit of 1.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 20%, with revenue of 25.93 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.1% [16] - *ST Jinkang is set to face mandatory delisting due to significant violations, as determined by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [18] - *ST Modern has accumulated unresolved litigation involving 57.44 million yuan, representing 17.09% of its latest audited net assets [19] - Zhongke Xingtu has been suspended from participating in military procurement activities due to violations, which may impact its operations in the short term [20] - The debt restructuring of Country Garden is facing obstacles as key banks have not yet joined the restructuring agreement [14] Industry Alerts - The EU has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into Chinese tires, which has raised concerns from China's Ministry of Commerce about the negative impact of trade protectionism [38] - The domestic fuel surcharge for air travel will be adjusted starting June 5, with routes under 800 kilometers exempt from the surcharge [37] - IDC has significantly lowered its global smartphone shipment growth forecast for 2025 from 2.6% to 0.6%, citing economic uncertainties and reduced consumer spending [41]

以下文章来源于全说能源 ，作者全说能源 全说能源 . 国际能源、石油和天然气问题分析和评论 文 | 全说能源 来源 | 全说能源 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 --世界银行《新冠大流行后的商品周期：一个新时代？》述评 55年间，石油等27种大宗商品价格平均4年变化一次，衰退期为52个月而繁荣期为38个月，三分之二处于同一周期，但新冠以来周期 更短。 专题研究的数据，来源于世界银行的数据库。 专题研究的主要术语和概念 峰值和低谷。局部最大值定义为峰值，局部最小值定义为低谷。 衰退和繁荣。 峰值和低谷之间的时间段称为衰退（或下降阶段），而低谷和峰值之间的时间段称为繁荣（或上升阶段）。繁荣和衰退，共 同构成了一个完整周期的各个阶段。一个完整的峰值到峰值（PP）周期，被定义为一个衰退之后随之到来的繁荣，而一个完整的低谷到低 谷（TT）周期被定义为一个繁荣之后随之到来的衰退。 作为一个观察、实践和研究世界石油和能源问题逾40年的人士，最关心并最想得到答案的问题是国际石油价格的变化有没有规律可言，这 肯定也是世界上无数同行最关心的问题。2025年4月29日，世界银行发布2025年4月《大宗商品展望》报告，其中附 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Stainless steel, silicon metal, lithium carbonate, coke [1] - **Bullish**: Corn (mid - term), urea [1] - **Sideways**: Index futures, gold, silver, electrolytic aluminum, alumina, nickel, ferronickel, stainless steel (short - term), rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, ferroalloys, ferrosilicon, glass, soda ash, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, sugar, soybeans, pulp, live pigs, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, natural rubber, BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, styrene, PE, BPP, PVC, caustic soda, LPG, container shipping [1] 2. Core Views - The current market is affected by multiple factors such as weak economy, asset shortage, global trade frictions, and policy changes. Different varieties show different trends due to their specific supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and market sentiment [1]. - For most commodities, short - term trends are often influenced by immediate news and short - term supply - demand imbalances, while long - term trends are determined by fundamental supply - demand structures and macro - economic conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Index futures**: Lack of driving factors, likely to continue weak sideways movement [1] - **Bond futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risks from the central bank suppress upward movement [1] - **Gold**: Short - term sideways, long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - **Silver**: Short - term high - level sideways, limited upward space in the medium term [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Supply disturbances in Congo (Kinshasa) increase concerns about supply shortages [1] - **Aluminum**: Low inventory supports prices in the short term, but upward space is limited as prices rise [1] - **Alumina**: Spot prices are rising, and the downward momentum of futures prices is weakening [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term weak sideways after price decline, long - term surplus pressure exists. Pay attention to inventory changes [1] - **Stainless steel**: Short - term weak sideways, long - term supply pressure remains. Pay attention to steel mill production schedules [1] - **Tin**: Supply recovery expectations are strengthening, and prices have significantly corrected in the short term [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: In the window period from peak to off - peak season, cost is loose, and supply - demand is loose, with no upward driving force [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Potential risk of weakening exports, cost is loose, and supply - demand is loose, with unclear price rebound drivers [1] - **Iron ore**: Expectation of peak iron - making output, but no new stories on the supply side. Pay attention to steel pressure [1] - **Ferroalloys**: Short - term supply - demand balance, high warehouse receipt pressure [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cost is affected by thermal coal, but production cuts in the production area make supply - demand tight [1] - **Glass**: Supply - demand is weak, and prices may weaken due to the rainy season [1] - **Soda ash**: Short - term demand is okay, but medium - term supply is excessive, and prices are under pressure [1] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supply - demand is relatively excessive. Coking coal provides positive arbitrage and selling hedging opportunities when the futures price is at a premium. Coke is bearish [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: Limited upward driving force, expected to maintain range - bound movement [1] - **Soybean oil**: Argentine weather impact is limited, and there is arrival pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed oil**: Concerns about supply shortage, and it is possible to consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: Short - term affected by trade negotiations and weather, long - term affected by macro uncertainties. Domestic cotton prices are expected to be weak sideways [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to reach a record high, and the production volume may exceed expectations if crude oil is weak [1] - **Corn**: Medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, but short - term upward space is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips [1] - **Soybeans**: Short - term no obvious bullish drivers, expected to maintain range - bound movement. Long opportunities for M11 and M01 can be considered [1] - **Pulp**: Port inventory is rising, and demand is weak. It is expected to move sideways [1] - **Logs**: Supply is loose, demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rebounds [1] - **Live pigs**: Inventory is recovering, and the futures price is at a discount. The futures price is expected to be stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil and fuel oil**: Affected by the progress of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation, OPEC+ production increase, and summer consumption season [1] - **Asphalt**: Cost drag, inventory accumulation, and slow demand recovery [1] - **Natural rubber**: Futures - spot price difference has returned, affected by exchange policies, and inventory has decreased [1] - **BR rubber**: Short - term sideways, long - term downward pressure due to weak demand [1] - **PTA**: Supply - demand tension has been relieved, and short - fiber cost is closely related [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Continuing to reduce inventory, and the impact of polyester production cuts is ongoing [1] - **Short - fiber**: Cost is closely related to PTA, and the tight situation has been alleviated [1] - **Styrene**: Speculative demand is weakening, inventory is rising, and the spot - futures price gap persists [1] - **Urea**: High daily production, increased short - term export demand expectations, and a possible rebound [1] - **Methanol**: High domestic production, increasing arrivals, and entering the inventory accumulation phase. The market is expected to be weak sideways [1] - **PE**: Seasonal demand is weakening, and prices are weak sideways [1] - **BPP**: Maintenance support is limited, and prices are weak sideways [1] - **PVC**: Fundamentals are weak, but there is short - term rebound due to macro - level positives [1] - **Caustic soda**: Low inventory, sufficient orders, and subsequent trends depend on the alumina market [1] - **LPG**: Prices are weak, with narrow - range fluctuations, and are expected to be weak sideways [1] - **Container shipping**: Strong expectations but weak reality. It is recommended to be cautious when short - selling during the price - support period. Light - position long positions can be considered for peak - season contracts, and arbitrage opportunities exist [1]

——从关税冲击到降息迷途，全球市场屏息以待 一份凌晨发布的会议纪要，撕开了美联储面对的两难困局：一面是关税助推的通胀火焰，一面是就业市 场的降温预警，而夹在中间的，是全球资本市场的剧烈波动。 北京时间5月29日凌晨2点，美联储公布了5月货币政策会议纪要，首次将"关税冲击"纳入核心议题，并 罕见警告未来可能面临通胀与失业"双升"的艰难权衡。这份被市场称为"风暴预警"的文件，不仅揭示了 美国经济政策的内部分歧，更暴露了全球金融体系在政治不确定性下的脆弱性。 一、会议纪要核心信号：三重压力下的"政策悬崖" 1. 通胀顽固性远超预期 长期通胀预期脱锚风险：核心PCE通胀率仍达2.6%，美联储预计2027年前难回2%目标，滞胀阴影笼 罩。 关税成为新推手：几乎所有与会官员指出，特朗普政府加征的关税正被企业转嫁给消费者，甚至非关税 影响企业也借机提价，导致通胀"向上漂移风险加剧"。 2. 就业市场韧性面临考验 尽管当前失业率稳定在4.2%，但企业因贸易不确定性已开始冻结招聘，制造业、农业等关税敏感行业 首当其冲。纪要直言"劳动力市场疲软风险正在累积"。 3. 金融稳定警报拉响 美元避险地位动摇：长期美债收益率上升与美元贬 ...

美债收益率这边，10年期国债收益率涨了3个基点，报4.4773%，两年期也小幅上涨。收益率的波动反映了市场对美联储政策的预期，会议纪要里几乎所 有委员都担心通胀比预期顽固，看来加息虽然停了，但降息可能没那么快，咱们做投资得把这层因素考虑进去，别指望流动性马上宽松起来。 黄金和原油的走势也挺有意思。现货黄金在英伟达财报后跳水，从3290美元跌到3276美元，COMEX黄金期货也跟着跌。这说明市场风险偏好稍微回升， 资金从避险资产转向了科技股。原油倒是涨了1.6%，WTI原油收高，因为OPEC+维持产量配额不变，但市场在关注那八个自愿减产的成员国会不会增 产，这会影响原油的供需平衡，能源股的中长线逻辑还得看全球经济复苏的情况。 还有两个国际新闻得说说。美伊有望达成核协议，这要是成了，可能会缓解中东的紧张局势，原油供应也可能增加，对能源价格有压制作用。俄乌筹备 第二轮会谈，市场希望能看到局势缓和的信号，毕竟冲突拖得越久，对全球经济的拖累越大。特斯拉说6月推出Robotaxi，这对电动车和AI板块是个刺 激，不过具体落地效果怎么样，还得看实际进展，咱们可以关注相关产业链的公司。 最后总结一下，美股短期受财报和政策预期 ...