强弱分析：黄金偏强、白银偏强 金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2026年1月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：地缘政治刺激避险情绪；白银：高弹性下高位震荡 黄金：地缘政治刺激避险情绪；白银：高位回落，资金止盈离场 强弱分析：黄金偏强、白银偏强 3 价格区间：975-1050元/克、16500-19500元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures ◆ 本周伦敦金回升3.24%，伦敦银回升5.29%。金银比从前周的58回落至57，10年期TIPS回升至1.9%，10年期名义利率回落至4.18%（2年期 3.54%），美元指数录得99.13。 ◆ 近期地缘政治风险不断抬升，我们此前周报提及，委内瑞拉事件冲击市场，对贵金属来说委内瑞拉战况可能刺激避险情绪，利好黄金。更深层 次影响方面，委内瑞拉毫无反抗之力为整个南美都带来了威胁。在 ...

王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2026年01月11日 国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 04 铸造铝合金：锚定铝价，价格震荡偏强 07 铂金：持续震荡，钯金：需持续关注关税政策动向 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 2 08 05 锌：强宏观定价，价格易涨难跌 06 铅：库存低位增加，价格震荡 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 CONTENTS 01 黄金：地缘政治刺激避险情绪 白银：高位回落，资金止盈离场 02 03 铜：微观长期看多，宏观扰动因素增加，价格走势坚挺且波动放大 铝：重心显著上行，高价仓位管理必要性 ...

2026年第一个完整交易周，在2025年表现强势的贵金属继续牛市行情，黄金和白银期货价格均累计上涨， 但波动性明显加剧。 总台央视记者 高岩：美国突袭委内瑞拉引发地缘政治动荡和市场避险情绪升温，加之发达经济体债务膨 胀，投资者增加贵金属配置。纽约商品交易所黄金和白银期货主力合约价格在本周分别累计上涨3.96%和 11.72%。 总台央视记者 高岩：值得注意的是，贵金属价格波动在本周明显加剧。尤其是白银期货价格在本周曾出现 单日大涨近8%、两天内累计涨超14%以及两天累计跌超7%的情况。华尔街投行高盛指出，相较黄金，预 计白银交易将持续面对高波动性和不确定性。 总台央视记者 高岩：综合多家金融机构的分析来看，本周有两个因素加剧了贵金属价格的下行压力。一是 彭博大宗商品指数本周启动年度再平衡调整，贵金属权重被大幅下调。分析人士称，预计这次再平衡调整 会触发指数追踪型资金被动减仓，使得黄金和白银面对获利了结压力。另一方面，芝商所集团从周五盘后 起，再次上调黄金、白银、铂金和钯金等贵金属期货履约保证金，这是最近一个月以来，芝商所集团第三 次上调贵金属期货保证金。其中，白银保证金本次上调幅度达28.6%。交易所大幅上调 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the non-ferrous metals sector [4]. Core Views - The report highlights a bullish sentiment towards non-ferrous metals, particularly copper, aluminum, rare earths, tin, lithium, gold, silver, tantalum, niobium, antimony, and uranium in the medium to long term [1][2][3]. - The macroeconomic environment is warming, leading to price increases in various non-ferrous commodities, with lithium, silver, tin, and aluminum leading the gains [1]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued price increases in rare earths and tantalum, which are less influenced by supply-demand dynamics [1]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have shown significant increases, with COMEX gold closing at $4,473 per ounce (+3.68%) and silver at $79.4 per ounce (+2.75%) [1]. - The U.S. labor market data indicates a slight decrease in unemployment to 4.4%, influencing market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 14th consecutive month, now holding 74.15 million ounces [1]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: LME copper closed at $12,965.5 per ton (-0.93%), while SHFE copper rose to ¥101,210 per ton (+2.60%). Supply disruptions in Chile and a slight decrease in demand from downstream industries are noted [2]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum reached $3,149.0 per ton (+1.91%), with SHFE aluminum at ¥24,455.0 per ton (+7.78%). The report indicates a slight increase in domestic production capacity but weak downstream demand [3]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin contracts rose to ¥352,910 per ton (+7.7%), driven by macroeconomic sentiment and supply expectations from key producing regions [7]. Energy Metals - **Nickel**: Nickel prices experienced volatility, with LME nickel peaking at $18,000 per ton before a sharp decline due to increased inventory levels and weak demand [8]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices remain stable around ¥460,000 per ton, with supply constraints expected to tighten further in 2026 due to export quota delays from the Democratic Republic of Congo [9]. - **Lithium**: Carbonate lithium futures reached ¥143,420 per ton (+18%), with expectations for increased demand from energy storage and electric vehicle sectors [10]. Strategic Metals - **Rare Earths**: Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and terbium oxide have increased to ¥626,000 and ¥623,500 per ton, respectively, with expectations for continued price growth due to stable demand [12].

【2026年首周贵金属延续牛市，短期下行压力下仍有上涨空间】1月11日消息，2026年第一个完整交易 周，2025年表现强势的贵金属延续牛市行情，黄金和白银期货价格累计上涨，但波动性明显加剧。华尔 街投行高盛预计，相较于黄金交易，白银交易将持续面临高波动性和不确定性。本周两个因素加剧了贵 金属价格下行压力。一是彭博大宗商品指数启动年度再平衡调整，大幅下调贵金属权重，预计会触发指 数追踪型资金被动减仓，使黄金和白银面临获利了结压力。二是芝商所集团周五盘后再次上调黄金、白 银等贵金属期货履约保证金，这是近一个月内第三次上调，其中白银保证金上调幅度达28.6%，可遏制 高杠杆和投机交易。不过，多家机构预计，即便面临短期下行压力，贵金属和工业金属价格今年仍有上 涨空间。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 扫码查看原文 构预计,即便面临短期下行压力,贵金属和工业金 属价格今年仍有上涨空间。 本文由 Al 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 ...

一是彭博大宗商品指数本周启动年度再平衡调整，贵金属权重被大幅下调，分析人士称，预计这次再平 衡调整会触发指数追踪型资金被动减仓，使得黄金和白银面对获利了结压力。 二是芝商所集团从周五盘后起，再次上调黄金、白银、铂金和钯金等贵金属期货履约保证金，这是最近 一个月以来，芝商所集团第三次上调贵金属期货保证金。其中，白银保证金本次上调幅度达28.6%。交 易所大幅上调保证金，通常能遏制高杠杆交易和投机交易。不过，多家机构预计，即便面临短期下行压 力，贵金属和工业金属价格今年仍有上涨空间。 来源：央视财经 转自：北京日报客户端 2026年第一个完整交易周，在2025年表现强势的贵金属，继续牛市行情，黄金和白银期货价格均累计上 涨，但波动性明显加剧。华尔街投行高盛指出，预计相较黄金交易来说，白银交易将持续面临高波动性 和不确定性。 综合多家金融机构的分析来看，本周有两个因素加剧了贵金属价格的下行压力。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the escalation of geopolitical risks following the U.S. military operation in Venezuela, which has led to increased market volatility and a rise in gold prices [2][3] - The U.S. military's operation against Venezuelan President Maduro marks a shift in U.S. foreign policy towards a more interventionist approach in Latin America, as stated by President Trump [2] - The operation has drawn strong condemnation from countries like Russia, Iran, and Brazil, which argue it violates international law and the UN Charter [2][3] Group 2 - Following the U.S. military action, gold prices have remained elevated, with February futures reaching $4,402.29 per ounce, driven by heightened market risk aversion [3] - The World Gold Council reported that global central bank gold purchases remained robust, with a net purchase of 297 tons from early 2025 to the end of November [3] - The potential for accelerated de-dollarization and re-monetization of gold could lead to a faster long-term increase in gold prices, as central banks outside South America may increase their gold purchases [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the silver market, highlighting the impact of CME's margin increases and the anticipated rise in silver prices to $200 per ounce due to supply constraints and strategic demand shifts [5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - CME's increase in margin requirements is seen as a tactic to control speculative interest in silver, which may mask larger underlying issues that could drive prices higher [5][6]. - The silver market is experiencing a supply crunch, exacerbated by China's restrictions on refined silver exports, affecting approximately 70% of the global supply [7][8]. - The current situation is compared to historical events, but it is noted that the dynamics differ as various entities, including countries and industries, are competing for dwindling supplies rather than a single entity attempting to monopolize the market [9][10]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The demand for silver is expected to increase due to its designation as a critical metal for industrial use, particularly in the solar energy sector and by central banks [11]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a declining U.S. dollar index are expected to eliminate the opportunity cost of holding silver, potentially leading to significant price increases [12]. - Any price corrections in the silver market should be viewed as long-term buying opportunities, with silver mining companies also seen as having substantial potential [13].

Group 1 - The latest U.S. non-farm employment data shows a slowdown in job growth with 50,000 new jobs added in December, below the market expectation of 60,000, indicating a continued deceleration in hiring [1] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.4%, which is better than market expectations, alleviating some concerns about a rapid weakening of the labor market [1] - Average hourly wage growth met expectations, not causing new disturbances to inflation outlook, characterizing the employment report as "moderate deceleration rather than significant imbalance" [1] Group 2 - Despite some economic indicators showing resilience, the employment data did not alter the market's core pricing for the policy direction for the year, with the rate market still anticipating about 50 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [2] - Gold continues to attract funds as a hedge against policy uncertainty, with prices breaking through the $4,500 mark and reaching a high of $4,517, approaching historical highs [2] - The U.S. dollar index briefly weakened after the data release but stabilized around 99.16, with the limited fluctuation in U.S. Treasury yields providing a relatively favorable macro environment for gold [2] Group 3 - Geopolitical factors are also providing marginal support for gold, with recent comments from Trump regarding Greenland raising concerns about long-term uncertainties, indirectly strengthening the demand for safe-haven assets [3] - Overall, the non-farm data did not shake the market's core expectations for a loose monetary path this year, with gold continuing to be supported by policy expectations and geopolitical risks [3] - The market will focus on upcoming U.S. inflation, retail sales, and Federal Reserve officials' statements, as the continuity of these data performances will be crucial for determining whether gold can further break into higher price ranges [3]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with significant price fluctuations and external economic factors influencing gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices are fluctuating around $4,461.54 per ounce, showing a daily volatility of over $70, as market participants await key economic data [1]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals have led to a rebound in the US dollar index above 98, putting pressure on gold prices [3]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly related to US military actions in Venezuela, are contributing to a risk-averse sentiment that supports gold prices [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The 50-day moving average has provided technical support for gold prices, with current support levels identified between $4,415 and $4,422, and a significant level at $4,445 [3]. - A recent Bloomberg commodity index rebalancing has caused a drop in gold's weight from 20.4% to 14.9%, potentially triggering passive selling of up to $7 billion [3][5]. - The gold market is facing short-term technical selling pressure, with significant sell-offs observed on January 8, where gold prices dropped nearly $70 [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming US non-farm payroll data is a focal point for market participants, with expectations of 60,000 new jobs, which is lower than the previous figure of 64,000 [5]. - Discrepancies in interest rate expectations between market forecasts and Federal Reserve guidance are contributing to gold price volatility [5][7]. - The probability of maintaining interest rates in January is 88.4%, with a 11.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut, influenced by recent hawkish comments from Fed officials [7]. Group 4: Central Bank Activity - Central bank gold purchases are a significant long-term support factor, with global central banks expected to add 634 tons of gold in 2025, and China's reserves increasing to 74.15 million ounces [7][9]. - China's gold reserves account for approximately 9.5% of its foreign exchange reserves, indicating potential for continued accumulation [7]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Retail investors are increasingly participating in the gold market, with trading volumes for micro gold contracts doubling, indicating a historical high in retail engagement [12]. - There is a divergence in fund flows, with significant outflows from gold ETFs, while Shanghai gold futures see substantial capital accumulation [12]. - Institutional views on gold prices vary, with some predicting a rise above $5,000 in the first half of the year, while others highlight the potential for significant sell-offs [12].