1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures fluctuated and rose this week. The international corn market price is under pressure, but the domestic corn market is supported by factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight transportation capacity, increased processing consumption, and strong procurement by enterprises. The corn futures price is generally strong and volatile, and investors should be cautious about chasing up [6]. - Corn starch futures also oscillated and closed higher. Although the supply - side pressure increases due to sufficient raw material supply and rising industry operating rates, the downstream demand is good, inventory has decreased, and the starch futures price has risen in sync with the corn market, with caution advised for chasing up [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights 3.1.1. Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2601 contract of corn futures closed at 2,244 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: International supply pressure is high, while in the domestic market, factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight transportation, and increased consumption support the price. The futures price is strong and volatile, and cautious chasing is recommended [6]. 3.1.2. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2601 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2,566 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply - side pressure increases, but downstream demand is good, inventory has decreased, and the futures price has risen in sync with the corn market, with caution advised for chasing up [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Price Trends and Position Changes - Corn futures' January contract oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 959,620 hands, an increase of 10,180 hands from last week. Corn starch futures' January contract also oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 238,140 hands, an increase of 1,212 hands from last week [14]. 3.2.2. Net Positions of the Top Twenty - The net position of the top twenty in corn futures this week was - 202,716, compared with - 108,473 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions. The net position of the top twenty in starch futures was - 33,782, compared with - 43,094 last week, showing a slight decrease in net short positions [20]. 3.2.3. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 60,215, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 0 [24]. 3.2.4. Spot Prices and Basis Trends - As of November 27, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,325.29 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active January contract of corn and the spot average price was + 81 yuan/ton [32]. - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,650 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,800 yuan/ton, with a slight increase this week. The basis between the January contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 84 yuan/ton [36]. 3.2.5. Inter - month Spread Changes - The 1 - 3 spread of corn was + 5 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 1 - 3 spread of starch was - 9 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [42]. 3.2.6. Futures Spread Changes - The spread between the January contracts of starch and corn was 322 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with last week [51]. 3.2.7. Substitute Spread Changes - As of November 27, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,506.44 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,325.29 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 181.15 yuan/ton. In the 48th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 601 yuan/ton, an increase of 147 yuan/ton compared with last week [56]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Corn - **Supply Side**: - As of November 21, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 28.4 tons, an increase of 1.10 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 31.5 tons, a decrease of 4.00 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 115.6 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume from the four northern ports was 74.4 tons, an increase of 34.40 tons week - on - week [46]. - As of November 27, the overall progress of domestic corn sales was 30%, a 3% increase from November 20, and a 3% increase compared with the same period last year [58]. - In October 2025, China's corn import volume was 35.90 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.06% and a month - on - month increase of 30.25 tons [62]. - As of November 27, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 27.83 days, an increase of 1.60 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 6.10%, but a year - on - year decrease of 4.72% [66]. - **Demand Side**: - At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.80 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 2.9%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.2% [70]. - As of November 21, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 135.9 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets was - 234.63 yuan/head [74]. - As of November 27, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 3 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 500 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 579 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 252 yuan/ton [79]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - **Supply Side**: - As of November 26, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 269.8 tons, a decrease of 1.06% [84]. - From November 20 to November 26, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 62.46 tons, an increase of 1.22 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 32.34 tons, an increase of 0.84 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 61.38%, an increase of 1.59% from last week. As of November 26, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 106.9 tons, a decrease of 4.00 tons from last week, a weekly decrease of 3.61%, a monthly decrease of 5.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 19.04% [88]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of November 28, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2601 contract of corn was 11.05%, a rebound of 2.63% from 8.42% last week. The implied volatility rebounded significantly this week and was at a relatively high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not explicitly mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term outlook**: - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bullish and volatile, but the upward space of the main contract is limited [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term consolidation, with long - term supply - demand fundamentals being strong, and there are opportunities to go long on far - month contracts at low prices [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Weak consolidation in the short term, and the recent rise is considered a rebound, with the option to gradually take profits [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term oscillation, with opportunities to go long after adjustment and stabilization [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term bullish, and short - selling should be cautious [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish, with short - term prices expected to test the 13700 - 13800 level and long - term opportunities for a gentle rebound after supply pressure eases [1]. - **Red Dates**: Rebound under pressure, with a generally bearish attitude in the long run, and short - term observation is recommended [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Short - term rebound, with opportunities to short on rebounds for near - month contracts and long on pull - backs for far - month contracts after the release of selling pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market data**: As of November 21, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 942500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50100 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 714990 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32720 tons; the soybean meal inventory was 115150 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15860 tons [3]. - **Analysis**: South American planting progress is slower than last year, and rainfall is expected to be below normal. Domestic supply is abundant, but the sales pressure of oil mills has decreased. The issue of US soybean import tariffs remains unresolved, and short - term prices are bullish and volatile [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: As of November 21, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, the rapeseed meal inventory was 10 tons, and the unfulfilled contracts were 10 tons [6]. - **Analysis**: The global rapeseed production has recovered this year. The domestic spot market has slow - moving sales and high inventory pressure. The short - term trend is consolidation, and attention should be paid to the impact of soybean meal and Sino - Canadian trade relations [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Market data**: As of November 21, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 667100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13900 tons. The export data from November 1 - 25 was weak, but the decline was slightly reduced compared to the first 20 days [7][8]. - **Analysis**: The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and the recent rise is a rebound. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November, and it is advisable to consider taking profits [1][8]. Cotton - **Market data**: In the international market, the US new cotton harvest progress is 79%, and 1237000 tons have been inspected; India's new cotton daily listing volume is 16000 - 20000 tons; Brazil's 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%. In the domestic market, the new cotton picking is almost completed, with a public inspection volume of over 3.7 million tons, and the sales progress is relatively fast [9][10][11]. - **Analysis**: The supply - side narrative space is narrowing, and the market is trading around interest - rate cut expectations. Domestic downstream cash flow has improved, but high inventory and hedging pressure limit the upward space [1][12]. Red Dates - **Market data**: The current inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 10848 tons, a week - on - week increase of 518 tons [13]. - **Analysis**: The new - season production is expected to be 500000 - 600000 tons, with an oversupply situation. The short - term trend is a rebound under pressure, and short - term observation is recommended [1][14]. Live Pigs - **Market data**: As of November 20, the group's overall slaughter progress is 65.67%. The national sample enterprise pig inventory is 3844620, and the slaughter volume is 11965300 [15][16]. - **Analysis**: The current supply - demand situation is weak. Near - month contracts have short - term rebound opportunities, and attention should be paid to short - selling on rebounds and long - buying on pull - backs for far - month contracts after the release of selling pressure [1][16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - Affected by the news that China banned a Brazilian soybean ship from entering the country and suspended some Brazilian exporters from exporting soybeans, the near - month contract of soybean meal rose significantly today, and the monthly spread tends to be in a positive spread. The news is expected to have more impact on sentiment, with limited actual impact. The domestic market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. Attention should be paid to weather changes in South America, and there is no obvious drought problem in the short - term weather [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price and Spread Data - On November 27, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was 75, down 20; the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Tianjin, Rizhao, and Zhangjiagang was 35, - 15, - 25 respectively, down 20, 20, 40 respectively; the basis of soybean meal spot in Dongguan, Zhanjiang, and Fangcheng was - 55, down 40; the basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was - 37, down 136; M1 - M5 was 217, up 28; M1 - RM1 and RM1 - 5 data were also provided; the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread of the main contract was 586 [6][7]. 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.0434, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium and import soybean gross profit data were provided. The inventory data of Chinese port soybeans, major domestic oil mills' soybeans and soybean meal, and the number of days of feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory were also presented, showing that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels [7]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: According to CONAB data, the predicted output of new Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26 will reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 15, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 69.0%, and as of November 13, the planting rate of Argentine soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 15%. It is necessary to pay attention to the relatively dry weather in southern Brazil and northern Argentina in the next few weeks. The domestic soybean meal is expected to reduce inventory from November to December, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The progress of ship - buying for the December - January shipment is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [7][8]. - **Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory in the short - term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. The soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, and the far - month trading volume of the soybean meal downstream has increased recently, with good提货 performance [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views - **Cotton**: The 11th USDA report adjustment is significantly bearish for the market. The short - term external market is expected to be under pressure, while the domestic market has limited upside and downside in the short - term. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to be optimistic after the seasonal pressure [2][3]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar production surplus pattern suppresses the market. The short - term fundamental driving force is downward, but there may be a weak rebound. The medium - to - long - term domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price may hit new lows [6][7]. - **Pulp**: The pulp supply is in a loose pattern, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom and is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [8][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton - **Market News and Key Data**: The cotton 2601 futures contract closed at 13,640 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,716 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,891 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton. In October, Bangladesh's cotton imports were about 110,000 tons, a 27.5% month - on - month and 26.0% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative imports in the 2025/26 season were about 396,000 tons, a 11% year - on - year decrease [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the USDA report increased the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season, leading to an increase in ending stocks and a shift from destocking to stockpiling. The sales pressure of US cotton has increased significantly. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded due to the decrease in the expected new cotton yield and the increase in the purchase price of seed cotton. However, there is strong hedging pressure, and the downstream demand is weak [2]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral strategy. In the short - term, the cotton price has limited upside and downside. In the long - term, the cotton price is expected to be optimistic after the seasonal pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [3]. Sugar - **Market News and Key Data**: The sugar 2601 futures contract closed at 5,403 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (+0.45%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,455 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. The consulting firm StoneX predicted that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season would be 41.5 million tons, a 3.3% increase from the 2025/26 season [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price closed higher in a volatile manner. The supply in Brazil in the second half of October was strong, and the sugar production in India in the 25/26 season is expected to rebound significantly. The short - term export of Indian sugar is difficult to increase, and the supply pressure in the later stage of the Brazilian season is gradually weakening. The latest import volume of sugar and syrup in China is higher than expected, and the short - term supply pressure is increasing [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral strategy. The short - term fundamental driving force is downward, but the valuation is low, and there may be a weak rebound. The medium - to - long - term domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price may hit new lows [7]. Pulp - **Market News and Key Data**: The pulp 2601 futures contract closed at 5,184 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.46%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,425 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,925 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The price of imported softwood pulp decreased, while the prices of imported hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp were stable [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The pulp futures price was weakly sorted. The European pulp port inventory decreased in September but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking speed was lower than expected. The demand in Europe and the United States was weak, and the domestic demand was the core factor suppressing the pulp price. Although there was a large amount of finished paper production capacity put into operation this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper mill's raw material procurement was cautious [8]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom and is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [9].

2025年11月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：高产边际交易减弱，技术反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆休市，缺乏指引 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：关注现货基差走势 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：淘汰加量，存在预期支撑 | 10 | | 生猪：限仓驱动近端期现背离 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 11 月 28 日 棕榈油：高产边际交易减弱，技术反弹 豆油：区间震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价(日 盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜 盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,528 | 1.04% | 8,598 | 0.82% | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, it gives outlooks such as "oscillating upward", "oscillating sideways", and "oscillating downward" [7][8][11]. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple agricultural and related commodities, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks. It believes that the overall market shows a pattern of diversified trends, with some commodities expected to be strong, some weak, and others remaining in a range - bound state [7][8][11]. Summary by Commodity Categories Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has stabilized and may continue to oscillate upward [7]. - **Logic**: Macro - environment factors include expected Fed rate cuts in December and potential progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, leading to a weaker US dollar and a rebound in crude oil. From an industrial perspective, attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases and the uncertainty of US biodiesel policies. South American soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and domestic imported soybean arrivals are expected to be at a relatively high level. Palm oil production in Malaysia in November is expected to have a narrowing month - on - month increase, and exports have declined. Indonesian palm oil inventory remains low, and Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. Domestic rapeseed supply is tight, but future supply is expected to increase [7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate upward [7]. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to South American weather and consider opportunistically laying out long positions in M2605 [8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, La Nina is expected to occur, and South American agricultural regions will face climate differentiation, which may affect the growth of new - season corn and soybeans. The US soybean planting area is expected to expand in 2026, and US soybean exports are expected to decline. Domestically, China's soybean import profit has recovered, and the oil mill's soybean inventory is high, while the soybean meal inventory is seasonally decreasing [8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and domestic soybean meal are expected to oscillate upward [8]. Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: There is a short - term supply - demand tightness, and prices will oscillate at a high level [9]. - **Logic**: The current supply - demand situation is tight, with factors such as upstream farmers' reluctance to sell, downstream rigid - demand restocking, differences in grain quality and regional price differentials, and traders' rush to buy and transport grains driving up prices. The tight transportation capacity also exacerbates the situation [10]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate at a high level [9]. Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices are weak, and the main contract rebounds with reduced positions [11]. - **Logic**: In the short term, supply is abundant, and demand is insufficient. In the medium term, there is pressure on large - pig inventory, and prices are in a downward cycle. In the long term, sow production capacity is expected to decline, and supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [11]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate downward. The near - term contracts are weak, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [11]. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It will oscillate slightly upward [13]. - **Logic**: Affected by the flood situation in southern Thailand, the market is relatively strong. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices support the market. Demand has not changed significantly recently, and the buying sentiment of downstream enterprises is still acceptable [14]. - **Outlook**: Prices will continue to oscillate widely with high elasticity, and it is difficult to have a trend - based market [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It will maintain range - bound oscillations [15]. - **Logic**: The recent stability of raw material butadiene trading and the strong performance of natural rubber support the market. The butadiene price rebounded after a decline, but there are still some selling pressures at high prices [15]. - **Outlook**: Before there is an obvious supply - demand contradiction in butadiene, it is advisable to short at high prices [15]. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: Cotton prices fluctuate narrowly, and the upward and downward space is limited [16]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase in production, and the supply is increasing. On the demand side, there is buying support when prices fall. On the inventory side, the commercial inventory is accumulating, and the pressure on prices may decrease after entering the destocking cycle [17]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the 01 contract will oscillate within a range; in the long term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate upward, and it is advisable to buy at low prices [17]. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: Sugar prices rebound, and there is short - term support at the bottom [17]. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long term, sugar prices are in a downward trend, and the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. However, in the short term, the 01 contract shows some support at 5300 yuan/ton [17]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long term, prices will oscillate downward; in the short term, there is support at 5300 yuan/ton [17]. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot price of softwood pulp is weak, and the logic of near - term and far - term futures contracts is differentiated [19]. - **Logic**: The recent decline in futures prices is due to the withdrawal of long - position funds. There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include potential shortages of delivery warehouse receipts, the upward trend of hardwood pulp prices, and relatively high non - bleached softwood pulp prices. Negative factors include a certain amount of warehouse receipts to be delivered, expected non - reduction of softwood pulp imports, and a decreasing proportion of softwood pulp use [19]. - **Outlook**: Pulp futures will oscillate widely, with the 01 contract having an expected upper pressure range of 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the 03 and 05 contracts having an upper pressure range of 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 5100 - 5150 yuan/ton [19]. Offset Printing Paper - **Viewpoint**: Offset printing paper will oscillate narrowly [20]. - **Logic**: The continuous decline in raw material prices affects the market sentiment negatively. Social demand is still weak. Supply is stable, downstream printing factory orders are limited, and the cost support from wood pulp is weakening [20]. - **Outlook**: There is still supply pressure. There is price support in the short term due to publishers' pick - up, but it may oscillate downward in the medium term [21]. Logs - **Viewpoint**: The valuation is not high, and the downward space is limited [22]. - **Logic**: There is no obvious buying intention. The fundamental situation is weak, and there is a lack of upward momentum. New Zealand's shipments to China are increasing, and demand is expected to remain weak. The market is in a state of "weak supply and demand", and the inventory will gradually decrease [22]. - **Outlook**: The supply will remain loose, demand has no expectation of increase, and the spot price is under pressure, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation at the bottom [22].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The spot price of peanuts is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term. The peanut futures will continue to fluctuate at the bottom. The new - season peanut production is expected to be higher than last year, and the planting cost has decreased. The 01 peanut contract has a limited rebound space due to the loose supply of oil - type peanuts [4][8]. 3. Summary by Section Part 1: Data - **Futures Market**: PK604 closed at 8102, down 24 (-0.30%), with a trading volume of 35,546 (-19.32%) and an open interest of 21,413 (8.03%); PK510 closed at 8248, down 30 (-0.36%), with a trading volume of 159 (-30.57%) and an open interest of 690 (0.58%); PK601 closed at 8186, unchanged, with a trading volume of 165,544 (-25.06%) and an open interest of 127,548 (-0.65%) [2]. - **Spot Market**: In the spot market, the prices in Henan and Northeast China were stable. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.9 yuan/jin, and in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.9 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 3.65 - 3.9 yuan/jin, and in Junan, Shandong was 3.5 yuan/jin. The import prices of Sudan refined peanuts were 8600 yuan/ton, Senegalese peanuts were 7600 yuan/ton, Brazilian new peanuts were 9200 yuan/ton, and Indian 50/60 peanuts were 8000 yuan/ton [2][4]. - **Price Difference**: The basis of Henan Nanyang peanuts was -786, Shandong Jining and Linyi was -586. The price difference between PK01 - PK04 was 84 (up 24), PK04 - PK10 was -146 (up 6), and PK10 - PK01 was 62 (down 30) [2]. Part 2: Market Analysis - **Peanut Prices**: The prices of peanuts in Henan and Northeast China were stable. The supply increased, but the downstream demand was weak. The price difference between oil - type and commodity peanuts was large, and the price difference between Henan and Northeast common peanuts was at a high level [4][8]. - **Peanut Oil and By - products**: The purchase price of peanut oil mills was stable, with the mainstream price at 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price at 7900 yuan/ton. The price of peanut oil and soybean oil was stable, and the price of soybean meal in Rizhao increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3010 yuan/ton. The peanut meal was relatively strong in the short - term [4][6]. Part 3: Trading Strategy - **Single - side Strategy**: Peanuts in contracts 01 and 05 will fluctuate at a low level. Short - sell 01 peanuts at high prices [9]. - **Spread Strategy**: Reverse - arbitrage the 1 - 5 spread at high prices [10]. - **Option Strategy**: Hold the short position of pk601 - P - 7600 [11]. Part 4: Related Charts - There are six charts including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, peanut oil mill's profit, peanut oil price, basis between peanut spot and continuous contract, 10 - 1 contract spread, and 1 - 4 contract spread [13][17][20].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic palm oil futures market is experiencing a mixed performance with prices showing a slight upward trend, influenced by various factors including production changes and weather conditions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 27, the main contract for palm oil futures opened at 8420.00 yuan/ton, with intraday fluctuations leading to a peak of 8540.00 yuan and a low of 8406.00 yuan, resulting in an increase of approximately 1.81% [1] - The overall market for palm oil is characterized by strong performance despite mixed market conditions, with the futures prices showing a trend of oscillation upwards [1] Group 2: Production and Supply Factors - Zhengxin Futures noted an increase in Malaysia's palm oil production month-on-month, with improvements in fresh fruit bunch yield and oil extraction rates; however, the spot transaction volume was zero, leading to price fluctuations [1] - Ningzheng Futures indicated that the onset of the rainy season in Malaysia suggests an upcoming reduction in production, with a significant decrease in palm oil output expected compared to the first 20 days of the month, alongside flooding in Indonesia that may support future prices [1] - Everbright Futures reported a seasonal increase in Malaysian palm oil production coupled with a decrease in exports, resulting in significant inventory pressure; Indonesian palm oil spot prices have fallen while Malaysian prices have risen, contributing to a generally oscillating market [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market shows a significant upward trend, with soybean futures experiencing a slight increase of 1.24%, reaching 3758.00 CNY/ton [1] - The USDA is expected to release the export sales report for the week ending October 16, with projected net sales of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/26 marketing year estimated between 600,000 to 2,000,000 tons [2] - The top 20 futures companies for soybean contracts show a slight increase in net short positions, with a total of 147,800 long positions and 147,900 short positions, resulting in a net position of -130 contracts, an increase of 881 contracts from the previous day [2] Group 2 - Global expectations for soybean supply remain high, with a significant decrease in U.S. soybean export inspection volumes, which fell to 799,000 tons compared to 2,119,800 tons in the same period last year, marking a 44.5% year-on-year decline [3] - The focus is on whether China can meet its ambitious target of purchasing 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of the year, facing multiple challenges including high domestic soybean port and oil mill inventories and poor crushing margins [3] - South American soybean production conditions are stable, with Argentina's planting progress for the 2025/26 season at 24.6%, which is 11% behind the same period last year [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：国内现货需求疲软，饲料企业多以刚需补货为主，对远期供应缺口的预期存疑。同时，国 内豆粕库存处于相对高位，供应宽松压制近月合约表现。然而，成本端为市场提供底部支撑，市场关 注美国政府释放的出口乐观预期，市场聚焦年底前中国能否大规模采购美豆。此外，南美大豆的丰产 预期也限制了美豆价格的上涨空间。盘面来看，随着资金移仓换月转向远月 2605，豆粕期价波动重 心有所下移，3000 元/吨关口仍是短期多空争夺的重要分水岭，短期豆粕期价震荡偏弱运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 ...