Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides investment ratings for various agricultural products, including "Oscillation" for oils and fats, protein meals, corn and starch, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton, and double - glue paper; "Oscillation Weakly" for sugar, paper pulp, and live pigs; and "Oscillation Strongly" for logs [1][5][6][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][18]. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of multiple agricultural products. For example, the price of natural rubber rebounds due to low valuation and bottom - position position - increasing; the inventory of Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate as Brazilian soybean planting progresses smoothly; the price of live pigs rebounds in the short - term but remains under supply pressure in the long - term [1][5][8]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Brazilian soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory. The market is affected by factors such as the US government shutdown, trade negotiations, and production expectations. The outlook is for oil prices to oscillate [5]. - **Protein Meals**: With the increasing expectation of Sino - US relations easing, double - meal prices are under pressure in the low - level oscillation. The market is influenced by factors such as international soybean prices, import volume, and downstream demand. The outlook is for bean meal and rapeseed meal to oscillate [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: The port inventory has slightly increased, and the spot price increase has slowed down. The market is affected by factors such as production expectations, weather, and demand. The outlook is for corn prices to oscillate [6][7]. - **Live Pigs**: Second - fattening continues to enter the market, and pig prices rebound in stages. However, the supply pressure remains. The market is affected by factors such as production capacity, demand, and inventory. The outlook is for pig prices to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The valuation is low, and the rubber price rebounds with increasing positions at the bottom. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and macro - factors. The outlook is for rubber prices to oscillate and seek the bottom [1][9][10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows the rise of natural rubber. However, due to high production and inventory, the outlook is for the price to oscillate and grind the bottom, with the possibility of hitting a new low this year [11][12]. - **Cotton**: The increase in the purchase price raises the cost, and the cotton price continues to rebound. The market is affected by factors such as production expectations and purchase prices. The outlook is for cotton prices to oscillate within a range and be slightly stronger this week [12][13]. - **Sugar**: In the medium - and long - term, the driving force is downward, and the sugar price oscillates weakly. The market is affected by factors such as global supply and demand and production expectations. The outlook is for sugar prices to oscillate weakly [13]. - **Paper Pulp**: The spot trading is light, and the paper pulp price runs at a low level. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and macro - factors. The outlook is for paper pulp prices to oscillate weakly [13][15]. - **Double - Glue Paper**: It is the tender season, and the price of double - glue paper stabilizes. The market is affected by factors such as production, demand, and cost. The outlook is for the price to oscillate [16][17]. - **Logs**: Logs oscillate strongly. The market is affected by factors such as port fees, supply and demand, and inventory. The outlook is to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low positions for the 01 contract in the future weeks [18]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties, including oils and fats, corn and starch, cotton and cotton yarn, sugar, paper pulp and double - glue paper, and logs [20][51][110][123][138][161]. 3. Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards, including "Strong", "Oscillation Strongly", "Oscillation", "Oscillation Weakly", "Weakly", and the corresponding expected price changes and time periods [173].

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) saw a decline in agricultural futures across the board on October 21, with soybean, corn, and wheat futures all closing lower [1] Group 1: Soybean Futures - Soybean futures fell by 0.12%, closing at 1030.50 cents per bushel [1] Group 2: Corn Futures - Corn futures decreased by 0.83%, ending at 419.75 cents per bushel [1] Group 3: Wheat Futures - Wheat futures dropped by 0.84%, closing at 500.50 cents per bushel [1]

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: October 21, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - On Monday, the corn futures market generally closed higher, with far - month contracts leading the rise. The futures price started to recover from the September decline, showing a near - weak and far - strong pattern. The corn 01 - 05 spread broke through - 100 yuan/ton, hitting a record low, indicating an optimistic market expectation for the 2026 corn price, which may limit the downside price space [2]. - In the spot market, although the current supply pressure still exists, after more than half a month of price decline, the new - season pressure has been released. With the purchase by some Sinograin depots, the spot price has stabilized, suggesting that the first - round price shock is over. The futures price may enter a bottom - grinding stage, and whether it will have a second bottom - probing depends on the corn market performance in the second half of October. The period from late October to early November may confirm the price bottom. It is recommended to focus on whether the 2601 contract can hold the 2100 - yuan level [2]. - Corn starch mainly followed the corn price rebound, showing no independent strength and still weaker than the raw - material side [2]. - On Monday, CBOT corn futures rose for the fifth consecutive trading day but with a small increase, mainly following the soybean price increase, and the high - yield pressure restricted the upward trend [2]. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - **Spot Market**: In the corn spot market, prices in some regions increased, such as in Jinzhou Port (up 30 yuan to 2180 yuan), Harbin (up 20 yuan to 2000 yuan). In the corn starch spot market, the price in Shandong increased by 20 yuan to 2750 yuan [4]. - **Futures Market**: Corn futures prices generally rose, with the corn 07 contract having the largest increase of 1.56% (up 35 yuan to 2272 yuan). Corn starch futures prices also increased, with the corn starch 03 contract rising by 1.16% (up 28 yuan to 2435 yuan) [4]. - **CBOT Market**: CBOT corn futures rose for five consecutive days, with the main - continuous contract price at 424, up 1 (0.24%). The main - continuous contracts of CBOT soybeans and wheat also increased [27]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some Sinograin depots are conducting supportive purchases and may increase the number of purchasing depots; the strong rebound of far - month futures contracts boosts market confidence; in September 2025, China's imports of corn and corn flour were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.9%, and from January to September 2025, the cumulative imports were 930,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.7%; the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration held a meeting to promote autumn - grain purchase and production - sales connection, emphasizing measures to maintain reasonable grain prices and protect farmers' interests [2][3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The pig industry is in the process of capacity adjustment, which may affect the long - term feed demand for corn; the release of new - season supply pressure still takes time, and the spot price remains under pressure [3]. Other Information - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered corn warehouse receipts increased significantly by 12,615 to 49,324 [2]. - **Import Price and Profit**: The landed duty - paid price of US Gulf corn was 2119.1 yuan, up 6.07 (0.29%), with an import profit of 190.9 yuan; the landed duty - paid price of US West corn was 1965.97 yuan, up 0.95 (0.05%), with an import profit of 344.03 yuan [27].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 21 日 豆粕：美豆偏强，或跟随反弹震荡 豆一：偏强震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4086 | +52 （+1.29%） | 4085 +30（+0.74%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 2895 | +13（+0.45%） | 2901 +7（+0.24%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1032.75 | +11.75（+1.15%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 284.8 | +3.8（+1.35%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2960～2970， M2601+50/+60/+80/+90， | 较昨-10或持平； 持平或-10； | 现货基差M260 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][5][8] Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, short - term cotton prices may weaken again, but in the long - term, they can be viewed optimistically after seasonal pressure [2] - For sugar, short - term Zhengzhou sugar may rebound slightly following the foreign market, but in the long - term, it should be treated with a bearish mindset [5] - For pulp, the pulp price is expected to continue its low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,465 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton (+0.97%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,552 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,679 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - India's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 5.311 million tons, imports 697,000 tons, consumption 5.338 million tons, and exports 306,000 tons, with the ending inventory remaining at 1.03 million tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, due to the US government shutdown, key data was postponed, increasing market volatility. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose, and the short - term external market is under pressure [1] - Domestically, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, starting the new year with low inventory. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized, limiting the decline of cotton prices [1] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,428 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.30%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,770 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,740 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [3] - In September 2025, China imported 151,400 tons of syrup and sugar premix, a year - on - year decrease of 135,200 tons [3] Market Analysis - For raw sugar, Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September was higher than expected, suppressing the raw sugar price, but there is support from the ethanol price [5] - For Zhengzhou sugar, the domestic supply is sufficient in the short term, but the new - season production increase may be less than expected, and the downside space is limited [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract yesterday was 5,156 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+0.66%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have limited impact on the overall supply, and domestic port inventories remain high [7] - Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the US and insufficient domestic demand are suppressing pulp prices, and downstream paper mills' procurement is cautious [7]

021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 10 月 21 日 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 10 月 21 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：国内豆粕市场呈现供需宽松格局，价格承压运行。供应方面，国内大豆到港量充足，港口 库存维持高位，假期过后油厂开机率逐步恢复，豆粕供应压力持续。需求方面，下游养殖亏损程度有 所恶化，导致饲料企业采购谨慎，多以刚需补货为主，豆粕消费表现疲软。受此影响，豆粕现货价格 低位震荡，现货基差承压运行。短期内，豆粕基本面乏善可陈，豆粕期价震荡运行。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) saw a significant increase in agricultural futures, with all major contracts closing higher on October 20, 2023 [1] Group 1: Soybean Futures - Soybean futures rose by 1.30%, closing at 1032.75 cents per bushel [1] Group 2: Corn Futures - Corn futures increased by 0.36%, closing at 424.00 cents per bushel [1] Group 3: Wheat Futures - Wheat futures experienced a rise of 0.35%, closing at 505.50 cents per bushel [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Red Star**: Indicates a predicted trend of rising. Three stars represent a clearer long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities; two stars represent holding long, with a clearer rising trend and the market fermenting on the trading board; one star represents a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading board [11]. - **Green Star**: Indicates a predicted trend of falling. Three stars represent a clearer short trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities; two stars represent holding short, with a clearer falling trend and the market fermenting on the trading board; one star represents a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decrease but poor operability on the trading board [11]. - **White Star**: Indicates that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading board has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [11]. - **Specific Ratings**: - **Bullish Bias**: Soybean No. 1, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1]. - **Bearish Bias**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Eggs [1]. - **Unrated**: Live Pigs [1]. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of agricultural products has different characteristics, and the market is affected by multiple factors such as trade relations, policies, and seasonal patterns. Different varieties have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and investment decisions should be made according to specific situations [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybeans are strong, continuing the oscillating rebound trend. The market participants are actively purchasing new grains, and last week's auction provides pricing reference. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is still expanding. Short - term US soybean crushing data is strong, but the export demand is uncertain. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade progress and market policies [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The sales progress of new - season US soybeans is slow, but US crushing has increased. The current domestic soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is high. The overall supply in the fourth quarter is not a big problem, but if the Sino - US trade relationship deteriorates and lasts, the supply in the first quarter of next year may tighten. In the context of high supply and high inventory, if the Sino - US trade does not ease, the soybean meal futures are likely to continue to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Short - term strong US soybean crushing data boosts the market, but the export demand is uncertain. The near - term demand for palm oil in the international market is weak, but the far - term demand has an expectation of increased biodiesel blending ratio in the Indonesian market. In the fourth quarter, palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle and has resilience. It is expected that oils are stronger than meals in the long - term, and it is advisable to go long at low prices [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed has extremely low inventory and low operating rate, and the supply side has a strong willingness to support prices. The Canadian rapeseed market maintains high crushing and low exports. The economic and trade relationship is the most important influencing factor. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions and pay attention to the marginal changes in economic and trade relations [6]. Corn - The autumn harvest progress in the Huanghuai region is slow. The spot price of Northeast corn has rebounded slightly, but the impact is small. The supply of Shandong corn is decreasing, and the price is stabilizing. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The supply of new corn in the Northeast will continue to increase in the next two weeks, and Dalian corn is likely to continue to operate weakly at the bottom, with increased volatility [7]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has rebounded after reaching the bottom last week, mainly driven by second - fattening, increased consumption due to temperature drop, and frozen product storage. However, the later supply pressure is still large, and it is expected that the pig price may have a second bottom - probing in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The sentiment of the egg spot market has weakened again. The egg futures opened lower and increased positions on Monday. The old - hen culling is still cautious, and the cold - storage eggs have not been fully sold, which is a potential pressure on the spot market. The short - selling trend on the trading board continues, and a short - selling mindset should be maintained [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, indicating a balanced short - term trend and poor operability, with a wait - and - see approach [1] - Timber: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the star - rating description [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited trading - floor operability [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The prices of different soft commodities show various trends. Cotton prices are expected to be affected by supply and demand, sugar prices are likely to remain weak, apple prices are influenced by factors such as production and storage, and natural rubber and synthetic rubber markets are affected by supply, demand, and inventory [2][3][4][6] - For most commodities, it is recommended to wait and see for now, while for timber, a bullish trading strategy is maintained [2][4][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose significantly, breaking through the recent trading range. The cost of new cotton is generally stable, with the mainstream price at 6.1 - 6.2 yuan/kg and the higher price at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. As of October 15, the national new cotton picking progress was 58.8%, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and the cumulative processed lint was 98.2 tons, an increase of 17.9 tons year - on - year. The downstream yarn market is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Brazilian sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are about to start the crushing season, with expected year - on - year increases in production. In China, Zhengzhou sugar prices are weak. The 25/26 crushing season in Guangxi is expected to have a relatively good sugar production. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price increased with rising positions. Due to heavy rainfall in the north, the listing of Red Fuji was delayed. As rainfall decreased, the trading volume increased. The market is mainly trading on cold - storage inventory. The national apple bagging volume decreased slightly year - on - year, and production may be adjusted downward. The initial cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - The futures market sentiment is divided. The supply of natural rubber is in the high - yield period, and a typhoon may affect some production areas. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants increased, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate decreased. In September, China's tire exports continued to decline. After the National Day, the tire plant operating rate rebounded. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased, while the social inventory of butadiene rubber and the upstream port inventory of butadiene increased. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [6] Pulp - Pulp futures prices rose slightly. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China decreased by 0.3 tons to 207.4 tons, a 0.1% month - on - month decrease. The supply of pulp is relatively loose, and demand is average. Overseas broad - leaf pulp prices are rising, narrowing the price gap with softwood pulp. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. The import willingness of traders decreased due to high foreign prices. The port outbound volume was above 60,000 cubic meters, and the inventory was low. A bullish trading strategy is maintained [8]