| | | 燃料油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/17 | 日期 | LU 01 | LU 05 | LU 09 | LU 01-05 | LU 05-09 | LU 09-01 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/06/10 | 3431 | 3358 | 3518 | 73 | -160 | 87 | | 2025/06/11 | 3414 | 3348 | 3524 | 66 | -176 | 110 | | 2025/06/12 | 3496 | 3461 | 3609 | 35 | -148 | 113 | | 2025/06/13 | 3671 | 3625 | 3785 | 46 | -160 | 114 | | 2025/06/16 | 3695 | 3620 | 3829 | 75 | -209 | 134 | | 变化 | 24 | -5 | 44 | 29 | -49 | 20 | | | | | 结论观点： 本周高硫裂解震荡，原油大幅上涨，高硫伊朗供应占比较大，油品利润中表现较好。380月差 震荡， 7-8月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a strategy of unilateral waiting and going long on the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts. As the peak season approaches, it is recommended to go long on the asphalt 09 - 12 spread. However, due to the large fluctuations of crude oil affected by geopolitical risks, cautious operation is required [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 9.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and continued to rise, being at a moderately low level in the same period in recent years. In June, local refineries are expected to produce 1.309 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 tons (5.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 370,000 tons (39.3%) [1]. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined. The operating rate of road asphalt remained flat at 25.6% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, restricted by funds. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 7.98% week - on - week to 272,000 tons, at a moderate level. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The demand in the north performed well, while the south was still affected by intermittent rainfall and funds were still restricted [1]. - Market environment: The negotiation on the US - Iran nuclear agreement has reached a deadlock and has been indefinitely suspended. The US has increased sanctions on Iran, and Israel and Iran have attacked each other, expanding the targets to energy facilities, leading to a sharp increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The panic about the global trade war has eased, but the shadow of the global trade war has not completely dissipated. The Trump administration has issued a simplified license to Chevron, allowing it to stay in Venezuela for minimal equipment maintenance but banning oil production. Attention should be paid to the changes in Venezuela's crude oil exports. Recently, asphalt has followed crude oil to fluctuate strongly, but crude oil fluctuates greatly due to geopolitical risks [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2509 contract fell 0.03% to 3,644 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,593 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,655 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 6,817 to 259,759 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 3,800 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract rose to 156 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Some devices such as Sinochem Quanzhou resumed production intermittently, and the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 9.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, continuing to rise and being at a moderately low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Demand - related investment data: From January to April, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate declined slightly compared with that from January to March 2025, still being negative. From January to April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 0.9%, a slight decline from - 0.2% from January to March 2025. From January to April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 5.8%, the same as that from January to March 2025 [4]. - Fiscal policy: The government work report proposes to implement a more proactive fiscal policy. This year, the deficit ratio is planned to be around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, and the deficit scale is 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year. The general public budget expenditure scale is 29.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan from the previous year. It is planned to issue ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year, and special treasury bonds worth 500 billion yuan to support the capital replenishment of large state - owned commercial banks. It is planned to arrange local government special bonds worth 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year. The total newly - added government debt scale this year is 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year [4]. Inventory - As of the week of June 13, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 17.6% compared with the week of June 6, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5].

2025 年 6 月 17 日 行业研究 OPEC+5 月增产量低于计划值，地缘政治冲突驱动油价震荡上行 ——石油化工行业动态跟踪 要点 OPEC 维持原油供需预期，OPEC+5 月增产 18 万桶/日。OPEC 发布 6 月月报， 需求端，OPEC 维持原油需求增长预测，预计 25 年全球原油需求增长 130 万桶 /日。OPEC 预计 2025 年世界石油需求将继续受到航空需求的强劲推动，预计 25 年航空煤油需求增长 45 万桶/日，汽油需求增长 38 万桶/日，液化气和石脑 油需求增长 50 万桶/日。供给端，OPEC 维持非 OPEC+供给增长预期，预计 25 年非 OPEC+国家原油供给增长 81 万桶/日。2025 年 5 月，OPEC+累计增产 18 万桶/日，其中自愿减产 8 国累计增产 15.4 万桶/日，沙特增产 17.7 万桶/日， 而此前超额生产的哈萨克斯坦、伊拉克产量下降。OPEC+自愿减产 8 国的 5 月 增产量低于此前决定的 41 万桶/日增量，IEA 预计 OPEC+今年的产量将增加 31 万桶/日，2026 年将增加 15 万桶/日，建议密切关注 OPEC+增产执行进度。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China is driven by rising international oil prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. oil inventory levels [1][2][3]. Price Adjustments - Starting from June 17, 2025, the price of gasoline will increase by 260 yuan per ton, and diesel will rise by 255 yuan per ton [1]. - The price increase translates to an increase of 0.20 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.22 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.22 yuan for 0-octane diesel [2]. Market Dynamics - The current pricing cycle has seen 12 adjustments, including 5 increases, 2 unchanged, and 5 decreases [2]. - International oil prices have shown a significant upward trend, supported by improved macroeconomic sentiment and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [2][3]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Despite a general demand for gasoline and diesel, geopolitical factors have led to a strong increase in international oil prices, which in turn has raised domestic fuel prices [4]. - Analysts predict stable gasoline demand due to increased travel during the summer, while diesel demand may decline due to limited outdoor construction activities [5]. Future Outlook - The short-term outlook for international oil prices remains strong, influenced by seasonal increases in gasoline consumption and geopolitical tensions affecting supply [6]. - The market sentiment is cautious, with expectations that gasoline and diesel prices may stabilize in the near term due to balanced supply and demand dynamics [5][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability driven by policy support, particularly in upstream sectors closely related to domestic demand [1][2] - The report highlights specific sectors such as polyurethane, coal chemical, petrochemical, and fluorochemical as key areas for potential profit recovery [1][2] - The focus on new materials as a primary development direction for China's chemical industry includes high-value products like robot materials, AI & semiconductor materials, bio-aviation fuel, OLED materials, and COC materials [1][3] Group 2 - The expectation of domestic demand recovery is supported by recent policy measures aimed at revitalizing the economy, with a focus on the chemical industry's upstream sectors [2] - Key companies to watch include Wanhua Chemical (600309), Baofeng Energy (600989), and others in the coal chemical and petrochemical sectors, which are expected to benefit from infrastructure projects in regions like Xinjiang and Tibet [2] - The emphasis on developing new materials is driven by emerging demands from humanoid robots and AI applications, as well as ongoing domestic substitution efforts in the semiconductor field [3] Group 3 - High-quality companies with strong shareholder returns are expected to undergo a revaluation, including major state-owned enterprises in the oil and gas sector and firms in the compound fertilizer and amino acid industries [4] - The report suggests that many sub-sectors within the chemical industry are at a point where they can enhance shareholder returns to reshape investment value [4]

Core Viewpoint - The low inventory levels in the asphalt market have prompted traders to utilize futures tools for risk management, indicating a bullish market outlook despite low production and demand constraints [1][2]. Inventory Levels - As of December 2024, winter storage of asphalt is at 850,000 tons, marking a multi-year low. Both social and factory inventories remain at historically low levels, limiting production release due to low profit margins and operating rates [2]. - The winter storage price of 3,420 CNY/ton is aligned with the cost price of 3,450 CNY/ton for resources in Q1 2025, suggesting limited downside for prices unless there is a significant drop in crude oil prices [2]. Price Comparison and Valuation - The current valuation of asphalt futures relative to Brent crude oil is at 0.9, which is considered reasonable based on historical low inventory scenarios from 2018 and 2022 [2]. - The basis for buying hedges was 50 CNY/ton, with historical data indicating that even during low inventory periods, the basis could fall below -200 CNY/ton in Q1 [2]. Trading Operations - On December 12, 2024, a company bought 2,000 contracts of March asphalt futures at 3,510 CNY/ton, with a current spot price of 3,560 CNY/ton, resulting in a basis of 50 CNY/ton [3]. - By early February 2025, the basis weakened to -197 CNY/ton, with futures rising to 3,797 CNY/ton and spot prices increasing to 3,600 CNY/ton. The company closed its futures position and procured products from the spot market [3][4]. Profit and Loss Analysis - The company realized a profit of 5,740,000 CNY from the futures market, while incurring a loss of 800,000 CNY from the spot market, effectively covering the losses with the gains from the futures [3][4]. Significance - The company's strategic market analysis and strong operational capabilities in the futures market allowed it to mitigate price risks, enhance competitiveness, and stabilize operations, serving as a valuable reference for the asphalt industry and beyond [5].

Core Viewpoint - Rongsheng Petrochemical's major shareholder, Rongsheng Holdings, has increased its stake in the company, reflecting confidence in its long-term development and strengthening the company's equity structure [1][2]. Group 1: Shareholding Changes - Rongsheng Holdings increased its shareholding by acquiring 19,707,213 shares from May 22 to June 13, 2025, representing 0.19% of Rongsheng Petrochemical's total share capital [1]. - After this transaction, Rongsheng Holdings and its concerted parties hold 6,076,774,685 shares, accounting for 60.01% of the total share capital [1]. - Since 2024, Rongsheng Holdings has implemented multiple rounds of share buyback plans, accumulating a total of 172 million shares, which is 1.70% of the total share capital, with an expenditure of 1.693 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Rongsheng Petrochemical reported total operating revenue of 74.975 billion yuan and a total profit of 1.345 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.91% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 588 million yuan, up 6.53% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit grew by 30.28% to 618 million yuan [2]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively responding to industry changes through strategic measures such as technological innovation, green transformation, and market optimization [3]. - Rongsheng Petrochemical is focusing on a differentiated, high-end, and green product system, covering various fields including new energy materials, polyester, and synthetic resins, which enhances its competitiveness in the global market [3]. - The company is also investing in downstream projects like the Zhejiang Petrochemical integrated refining project and Jintang new materials, aiming to cover the entire value chain from basic chemical raw materials to high-end new materials, thus forming a high-quality production system [3].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年6月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年6月份国内沥青总计划排产量为239.8万吨，环比增幅3.5%,同 比增幅12.7%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为32.8979%，环比增加0.599个百分点，全国 样本企业出货27.2万吨，环比减少7.98%,样本企业产量为54.9万吨，环比增加1.86%,样本企业 装置检修量预估为70.8万吨，环比减少4.06%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将减 少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为31.5%，环比增加0.01个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-06-17 成本端支撑偏强，基本面驱动有限 市场分析 1、6月16日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3667元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨28元/吨，涨幅 0.77%；持仓266576手，环比上涨4385手，成交296966手，环比下降235713手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3930—4086元/吨；山东，3650—4000元/吨；华南，3550—3650元/吨； 华东，3680—3770元/吨。 昨日国内各区域沥青现货价格均出现上涨，由于原油以及沥青期货整体维持高位波动，对沥青现货市场情绪仍有 支撑，现货市场挺价意愿偏强。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续。近期炼厂供应出现边际回升， 但增长幅度有限。与此同时，终端需求基本盘相对稳固，但在资金状况与降雨天气制约下增长动力不足。此外， 库存维持低位，近期呈现去库态势，市场下方支撑仍存。整体来看，目前沥青自身基本面驱动不足，当前盘面价 格波动主要受到原油端影响，考虑到中东局势仍不明朗，市场或面临反复扰动。 策略 单边：震荡偏强，关注伊以冲突局势发展 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜铜价震荡收阳，伦铜库存降至10.7万吨。美伦两市显性库存呈强翘翘板效应，两市合计库存约 30万吨级，与年初相比减少4-5万吨左右（且仍有相当部分海运在途）。英美达成贸易协定，欧盟 与日本暂未敲定。沪铜最后交易日现铜78645元，上海升水缩至30元，广东平水，洋山铜溢价降至 39美元，国内社库小增至14.77万吨。空头择机换月至2508，7.95万以上考虑止损。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝窄幅波动。周一铝锭社库下降0.2万吨，铝棒增0.4万吨，去库有放缓迹象。近期强现实弱 预期造成Back结构加深短期有利于多头，不过需警惕指数持仓激增至60万手后出现变盘，沪铝完成 对前期缺口的回补后技术面无强烈向上驱动,关注淡季负反馈何时兑现以及月差收窄后的远月活空 机会。 (铸造铝合金) 铸造铝合金维持震荡， 保太ADC12报价维持在19600元。铝和铸造铝合金现货价差扩大至千元具备较 好的做缩价差机会，但盘面上AL2511与AD2511价差仅在400元左右波动空间不足,谈李阶段价差如 有扩大考虑多AD空AL介入。 (氧化铝) (原油) 隔夜国际油价大幅回落，布伦特08合约 ...