Group 1: Energy - International oil prices declined overnight, with Brent 08 contract down 1.07%. Saudi Arabia aims to increase production at a rate of 411,000 barrels per day in August and September, and lower the official price premium for light crude oil sold to Asia in July. The supply disruption caused by wildfires in Canada has partially recovered. Consider shorting opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced in [2]. - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively low, and the expected increase in supply from OPEC+ may lead to a co - weakening of high - sulfur fuel oil cracking and EFS. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil due to weak supply and demand [20]. - The discount of diluted asphalt in June remains at a high level of - $6.5 per barrel. Supply increase lacks momentum, demand is seasonally improving, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue. The BU cracking spread faces short - term回调 pressure, but the upward trend is not reversed [21]. - In June, the decline in CP is relatively small. Although the Middle - East supply is abundant, the recovery of domestic chemical demand and the rebound of crude oil have boosted the market sentiment. The supply pressure has weakened, and the market is stabilizing, maintaining a low - level shock [22]. - Urea agricultural demand is in the wheat - harvest break period, and the market trading sentiment is weak. Production enterprises are continuously accumulating inventory. Exports are gradually liberalized, but inspections are still restricted. The market weakens within the range [23]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold showed a strong - side oscillation overnight, while silver had limited fluctuations. The US economic data is weak, and the Fed's attitude is cautious. Gold prices should be bought on dips based on the strong support at $3000 [3]. Group 3: Base Metals - LME copper showed a solid form with inventory decreasing rapidly and logistics shifting to the US. Consider short - selling on rebounds or active position - swapping [4]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. Demand is facing seasonal decline and trade frictions. There is resistance at the previous gap of 20,300 yuan. Participate in short - selling on rallies [4]. - The bauxite mine incident in Guinea has temporarily subsided. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation. Consider short - selling after the futures discount is gradually repaired [5]. - The zinc market's fundamentals are shifting from weak supply - demand to increasing supply and weakening demand. Continue the strategy of short - selling on rebounds [6]. - The actual consumption of lead is not optimistic. The cost - side support is strong, and the lower limit of Shanghai lead is temporarily seen at 16,300 yuan per ton [7]. - The nickel market is affected by trade conflicts. The supply of stainless steel is high, and the inventory situation is mixed. Short - sell on rebounds [8]. - The tin price continued to rise overnight. The low - grade tin production may be slower than expected. Hold previous high - level short positions and swap positions on rebounds [9]. Group 4: Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices slightly declined at night. Rebar demand has short - term resilience but is under pressure in the off - season. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand have both increased, and inventory has decreased. Pay attention to terminal demand and policies [13]. - Iron ore prices oscillated strongly overnight. Supply is at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. The rebound space is expected to be limited [14]. - Coke prices rebounded significantly. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the price may continue to rise in the short term [15]. - Coking coal prices rebounded significantly. The current rebound is more likely a basis - repair rebound rather than a reversal signal [16]. Group 5: Chemicals - Methanol prices stopped rising and oscillated at night. The industry is accumulating inventory, and prices are under pressure. Pay attention to the inventory in Jiangsu [24]. - Styrene prices are under pressure due to inventory accumulation. Some enterprises plan to reduce production [25]. - Polypropylene and plastic prices are at a relatively low level, and short - term decline space is limited. The demand off - season continues [26]. - PVC prices may oscillate at a low level due to expected supply increase and export decline. Caustic soda prices are under pressure at a high level [27]. - PX and PTA prices are under pressure due to changes in supply - demand patterns. Pay attention to terminal orders and polyester production cuts [28]. - Ethylene glycol prices continue to decline. The market sentiment is weakening [29]. Group 6: Grains and Oils - Soybean meal futures oscillated flat, with weak upward drive. Supply is expected to be abundant. Short - term bearish, pay attention to weather changes from June to August [34]. - Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to oscillate within a range. The market is affected by policy expectations, supply pressure, and weather [35]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are under short - term pressure. Pay attention to trade policies and overseas weather [36]. - Domestic soybeans oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to the auction results and weather [37]. - Corn prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Demand is weak, and new wheat may replace some corn demand [38]. Group 7: Livestock and Poultry - Hog futures oscillated weakly. Supply is expected to increase in the later stage, and short - term prices may continue to decline [39]. - Egg futures hit a new low. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may continue to decline [40]. Group 8: Textiles - Cotton prices: US cotton may benefit from rainfall, but the planting progress is behind. Domestic cotton has tight inventory expectations, and the market is in the off - season. Temporarily observe [41]. - Sugar prices: International sugar supply expectations are bearish, and domestic sugar has less inventory pressure. Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [42]. - Apple prices oscillate. Market demand has declined, and the focus is on the new - season output estimate [43]. Group 9: Others - Wood prices are weak. Supply has some positive factors, but demand is in the off - season. Temporarily observe [44]. - Pulp prices slightly declined. Inventory is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and pay attention to import data. Consider buying on significant dips [45]. - Stock index futures rebounded. Due to geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties, the market may oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to domestic policy signals [46]. - Treasury bond futures closed up. Overseas budget expansion and domestic bond issuance acceleration may affect the market. The short - term long - side may maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and pay attention to curve - steepening opportunities [47].

2025年06月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：板块预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：黑色板块共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：三轮提降开启，盘面震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，盘面震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：底部阶段企稳运行 | 9 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 铁矿石：板块预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 1. 29% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 704. ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美国 5 月 ADP"爆冷"！就业人数骤降至 3.7 万人 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-05 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国 5 月 ADP"爆冷"！就业人数骤降至 3.7 万人 最新的美国经济数据不及预期，美国经济下行压力加剧，美元 短期走弱。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国 5 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 指数近一年来首次萎缩 经济下行风险不断积累，但在降息预期的支撑下，市场风险偏 好并未明显回落，美股延续震荡走势。 综 黑色金属（焦煤/焦炭） 合 河北炼焦煤市场持稳运行 晨 报 短期来看，焦煤基本面暂无明显变化，更多是交易基差和情绪 修复，后续需关注供应变化 有色金属（锌） 上海锌：下游企业畏高，成交表现较差 CSZTP 发布 3Q25 进口加工费指导区间于 80-100 美元/干吨，对 应国内 TC 在 4000-4500 元/吨，预计年内加工费仍有不小上行空 间。 能源化工（纯碱） 6 月 4 日华北市场纯碱价格行情 今日纯碱期价涨幅较大，一方面受益于市场整体风险偏好回升， 另一方面也是联碱法成本附近本身存在一定支撑。 | 许惠敏 | 资深分析师 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/03 | -191.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/30 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/29 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/28 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/27 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 原油基差 基差（右） 原油现货价:中国胜利 期货收盘价(活跃合约):INE原油 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 450 5 ...

Group 1: Energy - The international oil price continued to rise overnight, with the Brent 08 contract up 0.75%. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, but there may be opportunities to short again after the peak season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced in. The global oil inventory has increased by 2% since the second quarter, and the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 3.3 million barrels last week [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively low, and its cracking and EFS are expected to weaken. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil trend under the situation of weak supply and demand [20]. - The asphalt industry started destocking in June, and the destocking trend is expected to continue. The BU crack spread may face short - term callback pressure, but the upward trend is hard to reverse [21]. - The decline of 6 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas is small. The market has stabilized, and the downward space is limited. The spot surplus pressure has eased, and the futures may have a small basis contraction, but it will maintain a low - level shock [22]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals oscillated weakly overnight. The US economic data this week is in focus, especially the non - farm payrolls on Friday. Gold can be bought on dips with strong support at $3000 [2]. Group 3: Base Metals - Copper prices rose overnight. The White House's tariff policy may increase the expectation of copper tariffs. The LME copper inventory decreased to 143,800 tons, and the spot premium was $50. The KK mine in Congo may resume production at the end of the month. Consider shorting on rebounds or actively rolling over contracts [3]. - Aluminum prices rebounded slightly overnight. The aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 8,000 tons, and the demand is facing challenges. There is resistance at the key position of 20,300 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4]. - The alumina supply elasticity is large after the profit recovery. The domestic operating capacity increased by 1.3 million tons to 89.3 million tons. It is advisable to short on rallies, and not to chase short when the discount is large [5]. - Zinc demand is in the off - season, and the fundamentals are changing from weak supply and demand to increasing supply and weak demand. Continue to short on rebounds [6]. - The cost support of lead is expected to gradually appear, and the lower support of SHFE lead is temporarily seen at 16,300 yuan/ton [7]. - Nickel prices rebounded, but the stainless - steel market is still in a situation of high supply and weak demand. The nickel iron inventory increased, and the pure nickel and stainless - steel inventories decreased. Short positions can be followed as the nickel price starts to fall [8]. - Tin prices rose overnight. The tin market still has the theme of tight concentrates, but the medium - term trend is downward. Hold short positions at high levels [9]. - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated. The market inventory situation shows positive changes. The decline of Australian ore prices has slowed down, and the short - selling momentum has weakened [10]. - The industrial silicon price decreased with reduced positions. The supply is increasing while the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to decline slowly [11]. - The polysilicon futures price decreased with reduced positions. The short - term demand is weak, and the price is expected to change from shock to weak. Pay attention to the support at 34,200 yuan/ton [12]. Group 4: Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices rebounded overnight. The demand for rebar is under pressure in the off - season, and the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have improved. The iron - water output is falling, and the negative feedback expectation still exists. The market is expected to rebound with fluctuations [13]. - The iron ore price rose overnight. The global supply has rebounded to a high level, and the domestic arrival volume has increased significantly. The demand is in the off - season, and the iron - water output is declining. The price is expected to be weakly volatile and may make up for the decline [14]. - The coke price rebounded. The iron - water output is falling slightly, and the second round of price cuts for coking has been fully implemented. The overall inventory has increased slightly, and the price support may decline due to the cost reduction of coking coal [15]. - The coking coal price rebounded. The production is still at a high level, the spot auction market is weak, and the terminal inventory is decreasing slightly. The price still has a downward driving force [16]. - The silicon - manganese price rebounded after a sharp decline. The inventory has decreased, but the supply is increasing slightly. The price is still weak [17]. - The silicon - iron price rebounded after a decline. The iron - water output is falling, the demand is fair, the supply is decreasing, and the price is still weak [18]. Group 5: Shipping - The shipping companies are raising the freight rates in late June. The 08 contract of the container shipping index (European line) shows a "strong reality, weak expectation" trend. There may be pulse - type market conditions, and there is still room for the 08 contract to rise further. Short - selling in the short term needs to be cautious [19]. Group 6: Chemicals - The urea market is in a weak - shock state. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, the production enterprises are accumulating inventory, and the impact of the new Indian tender is small [23]. - The methanol price continued to rebound with increased positions. The demand from coastal olefin plants has increased, but the port inventory is rising. The coal price is falling, and the cost is under pressure [24]. - The styrene price is under pressure due to inventory accumulation at the main ports in East China and weak downstream demand [25]. - The demand for polyethylene and polypropylene is in the off - season, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The price support from the demand side is limited [26]. - The PVC industry may face inventory accumulation pressure, and the price may oscillate at a low level. The caustic soda market is weakly operating, with high - level supply and inventory pressure [27]. - The PX and PTA prices rebounded slightly with reduced positions. The supply - demand situation of upstream raw materials is gradually under pressure due to weakening demand [28]. - The ethylene glycol price remains weak, and the pressure will gradually appear after June [29]. - The short - fiber price oscillated and rebounded, and attention should be paid to the possibility of processing - margin repair. The bottle - chip market is in the peak - demand season, and the processing margin is low. Consider intervening in the processing - margin repair if production cuts are implemented [30]. Group 7: Building Materials - The glass industry's production capacity has increased slightly, the spot price has decreased, and the futures price is weakly operating. The inventory pressure is high, and the downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the cost - side changes [31]. Group 8: Rubber - The natural rubber supply is increasing, the downstream demand is weakening, the synthetic rubber supply is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see [32]. Group 9: Soda Ash - The soda ash futures price rebounded overnight. The inventory pressure is high, the supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure at a high level [33]. Group 10: Agricultural Products - The soybean and soybean meal prices lack upward drive. The supply is becoming more abundant, and the demand is relatively cautious. The market is expected to be short - term bearish, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather in June - August [34]. - The soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean and palm oil will face pressure from large arrivals, and the overseas palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle [35]. - The Canadian canola futures price has upward drive, but the domestic canola market is affected by the Sino - Canadian trade relationship. It is advisable to reduce long positions and wait and see in the short term [36]. - The domestic soybean price is oscillating. The import supply is abundant, and the price is expected to be affected by weather in the medium term [37]. - The corn price is expected to be weakly volatile. The demand is weak, and the supply will increase with the listing of new wheat [38]. - The pig price is expected to decline in the short term due to increasing supply. In the medium term, the policy aims to stabilize the price, and attention should be paid to the actions of group enterprises [39]. - The egg price is expected to decline further due to increasing supply and the arrival of the off - season. Attention should be paid to the old - hen culling, weather, and feed prices [40]. - The cotton price is advisable to wait and see. The US cotton planting progress is behind, and the domestic cotton market has mixed conditions with some tight - inventory expectations but increasing off - season pressure [41]. - The sugar price is expected to oscillate. The Brazilian production data is mixed, and the domestic sugar market has reduced imports and light inventory pressure [42]. - The apple price is weakly operating. The market demand is decreasing, and the focus is on the new - season yield estimate. It is advisable to wait and see [43]. - The wood price has stopped falling and stabilized. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is relatively good in the off - season. The price rebound power is insufficient, and it is advisable to wait and see [44]. - The pulp price declined. The port inventory is high, the demand is weak, and the import volume may decline. It is advisable to wait and see or try to go long on significant dips [45]. Group 11: Financial Futures - The stock index futures are expected to be in a high - level shock due to insufficient bullish drive. The uncertainty of geopolitical situation and US trade policy makes investors cautious. Pay attention to positive domestic policy signals [46]. - The treasury bond futures are oscillating. The market is in a narrow - range shock, and there may be long - position opportunities after over - decline. Pay attention to the entry timing of curve steepening in short - term multi - variety hedging [47].

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend, with 11 products experiencing price increases, 38 seeing declines, and one remaining stable in late May 2025 compared to mid-May 2025 [2]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, prices for rebar, wire rod, and ordinary plates decreased by 1.4%, 1.7%, and 1.2% respectively, with rebar priced at 3143.7 yuan per ton [4]. - In the non-ferrous metal category, aluminum ingot saw a price increase of 0.9% to 20330.0 yuan per ton, while electrolytic copper decreased by 0.1% to 78398.6 yuan per ton [4]. - Chemical products showed varied results, with sulfuric acid increasing by 0.7% to 621.8 yuan per ton, while methanol decreased by 4.6% to 2191.9 yuan per ton [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices fell by 2.1% to 4310.4 yuan per ton, while diesel prices increased by 0.7% to 6968.7 yuan per ton [4]. - Coal prices also experienced declines, with anthracite coal dropping by 1.2% to 948.5 yuan per ton and coking coal decreasing by 3.5% to 1167.9 yuan per ton [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Products and Inputs - Among agricultural products, rice prices increased by 0.8% to 4027.6 yuan per ton, while soybean prices rose by 0.7% to 4321.6 yuan per ton [5]. - Fertilizer prices showed a decline, with urea decreasing by 2.5% to 1890.0 yuan per ton [5]. - The price of pesticides, however, increased by 1.1% to 23771.4 yuan per ton, indicating a rise in agricultural production inputs [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment: - Iron ore: -2 (most bearish) [5] - Rebar: 0 (neutral) [9] - Hot-rolled coil: 0 (neutral) [9] - Ferrosilicon: -1 (bearish) [13] - Silicomanganese: -1 (bearish) [13] - Coke: -1 (bearish) [16] - Coking coal: -1 (bearish) [16] - Thermal coal: 0 (neutral) [19] - Logs: -1 (bearish) [24] 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore faces downward price risks due to weak demand expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to oscillate at low levels with negative feedback expectations leading [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon will experience weak oscillations due to poor demand expectations, and silicomanganese will also have weak oscillations as port ore transactions are under pressure [2][11]. - Coke has seen the second round of price cuts implemented and is expected to oscillate weakly, while coking coal is also expected to oscillate weakly [2][14]. - Thermal coal is stabilizing at the bottom stage [2][17]. - Logs are expected to oscillate weakly [2][20]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: Futures price closed at 702.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan (-0.71%); open interest decreased by 1,831 hands. Spot prices of various iron ores declined, with the largest drop of 5.0 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads also changed slightly [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5% [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: Rebar RB2510 closed at 2,964 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan (-0.77%); hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan (-0.55%). Spot prices in most regions decreased, and the basis and spreads changed accordingly [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the weekly data on May 29, rebar production decreased by 5.97 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 13.87 tons; total inventory of rebar decreased by 23.17 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil decreased by 7.38 tons; apparent demand for rebar increased by 1.55 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil increased by 13.87 tons. On May 30, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.87%, up 0.18 percentage points week - on - week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.69%, down 0.63 percentage points week - on - week; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, down 0.87 percentage points week - on - week; the daily average pig iron output was 241.91 tons, down 1.69 tons week - on - week. In April 2025, global crude steel production decreased by 0.3% year - on - year to 155.7 million tons. In mid - May 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily crude steel output decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, pig iron output decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, and steel output increased by 1.9% month - on - month [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of silicomanganese increased by 120 yuan/ton, while that of ferrosilicon decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The basis, spreads between near and far months, and cross - variety spreads all changed [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of May 30, prices of various grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed. Manganese ore inventory at major ports decreased by 13.83 million tons week - on - week as of May 30. Some steel mills' procurement prices and volumes of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were announced [11][13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased. Spot prices of coking coal in some regions decreased, and that of coke also decreased. The basis and spreads changed [14]. - **Price and Position Information**: Coking coal quotes at northern ports were provided. On May 30, the long - short positions of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 contracts in the top 20 members of the DCE changed [14][16]. Thermal Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The ZC2506 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan from the previous settlement price [17]. - **Fundamentals**: Quotes of foreign trade thermal coal at southern ports and domestic thermal coal at production areas were provided. On May 30, the long - short positions of the ZC2506 contract in the top 20 members of the ZCE did not change [18]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts changed. Spot prices of most log products remained stable, with only a few showing small fluctuations [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to April 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, and residential investment decreased by 9.6% year - on - year [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the previous supply - side reform, the problems faced by the non - ferrous sector were much smaller than those of the black sector [2][6] - The 656th Document established the "ceiling" for electrolytic aluminum production capacity, ending the dilemma of continuous growth despite repeated regulations [3][38] - Compared with the black sector, the supply - demand balance of the non - ferrous metal industry is relatively healthy, and strategic resources are being reserved by accumulating intermediate inventories [4][49] - The industry prosperity of the non - ferrous metal demand side varies, and the emerging economy has a higher driving force for non - ferrous metals than traditional industries [5][75] - It is less likely to launch a new round of supply - side reform in the non - ferrous sector due to its relatively healthy supply - demand balance, strategic nature, and complex and dispersed industrial chain [106] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Reform Background and Motivation - The current market's attention to potential supply - side reform is due to over - supply of industrial products, weakening external demand caused by trade frictions, and the call for anti - "involution - style" price cuts. Similar problems led to the 2015 supply - side reform [8] - In the 2015 supply - side reform, industrial product prices (PPI) declined for 54 consecutive months, and over - capacity seriously squeezed industrial enterprises' profit margins. Currently, over - capacity is spreading to the middle and lower reaches [8][12] - External economic downturn led to a decline in China's exports in 2015, and trade protectionism in developed economies and competition from low - cost countries further worsened China's foreign trade environment [18][19] 3.2 Comparison between Non - ferrous and Black Sectors - From 2012 - 2016, the non - ferrous sector was more prosperous than the black sector, with relatively stable capacity utilization in non - ferrous smelting and rolling industries. However, non - ferrous metal prices were under pressure, dragging down enterprise profit growth [20][28] 3.3 Factors Affecting Non - ferrous Metal Demand - In 2017, factors such as enterprise capital expenditure, emerging industries (new energy vehicles, 5G, semiconductors), and real - estate recovery driven by shantytown renovation monetization and overseas economic recovery boosted non - ferrous metal demand [30][37] 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Industry Reform - Before setting the 4500 - million - ton production capacity ceiling in 2017, the electrolytic aluminum industry had experienced six rounds of "failed" regulations. The 656th Document established the ceiling and launched supply - side reform, including measures such as determining the ceiling, setting energy and environmental thresholds, and optimizing production capacity layout [38][40][42] - Compared with the "one - size - fits - all" approach in the black sector, electrolytic aluminum production restrictions are more "seasonal" and "refined", mainly concentrated in the heating season and becoming more precise over time [46] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance of the Non - ferrous Sector - The capacity utilization rate of non - ferrous smelting and rolling has been stable at around 80%. The non - ferrous sector emphasizes the logic of "resource is king", with the intermediate smelting end yielding profits to the upstream mining end. Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different profit performances due to downstream demand [59] - The non - ferrous sector shows a pattern where the upstream is stronger than the middle and downstream, and refined metal inventories are accumulating. This is related to the high import dependence of non - ferrous minerals in China, and China reserves strategic resources by expanding intermediate inventories [60][68][74] 3.6 Demand - side Characteristics of Non - ferrous Metals - The non - ferrous sector has more diverse intermediate products and a more dispersed downstream demand compared to the black sector, which increases the difficulty of supply - side reform [77] - The demand from the power industry for non - ferrous metals accounts for a high and increasing proportion. The demand for copper in the power industry is expected to grow by 6.5 - 9%, and the demand for aluminum in the power industry is expected to grow by about 10% in 2025 [80][85][86] - The real - estate sector's demand for non - ferrous metals is differentiated. While the real - estate market is generally weak, policies have promoted the demand for copper in the power and home appliance industries, leading to a differentiation strategy of "long non - ferrous, short black" [87] - The new energy vehicle and photovoltaic industries have become new drivers of non - ferrous metal demand. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year sales of new energy vehicles reached 46.3%, and the global and Chinese new - added photovoltaic installations are expected to drive the demand for non - ferrous metals [105]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Weak consolidation [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating weakly [1] - Coke: Oscillating weakly [1] - Manganese silicon: Weakly running [1] - Ferrosilicon: Weakly running [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The terminal demand for steel is gradually weakening, and the market is pessimistic about the supply - demand situation in the upcoming consumption off - season. The short - term steel futures market is expected to be in weak consolidation. The iron ore market has a complex situation of supply and demand, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. The coking coal and coke markets are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and price cuts, and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are affected by factors such as cost, demand, and production, and are expected to run weakly in the short term [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures rebounded slightly, with the 2510 contract closing at 2978 yuan/ton, up 0.47%. The spot price rose steadily, and the trading volume increased. The national rebar production decreased, the inventory decline expanded, and the apparent demand rebounded slightly. However, the terminal demand is gradually weakening, and the short - term is expected to be in weak consolidation [1] - **Iron ore**: The main contract i2509 of iron ore futures rebounded, closing at 707 yuan/ton. The port spot price rose. The global shipment volume decreased slightly, the blast furnace start - up rate increased, but the molten iron output decreased. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports and steel mills decreased. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Coking coal**: The coking coal futures fell, with the 2509 contract closing at 759 yuan/ton, down 2.57%. The spot price in some areas decreased. The supply is loose, the downstream procurement is postponed, and the trading is light. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures fell, with the 2509 contract closing at 1332 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. The spot price in the port market decreased. The second round of price cuts was implemented, the demand is weakening, and the inventory of some coking enterprises is overstocked. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Manganese silicon**: The manganese silicon futures oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5530 yuan/ton, down 1.5%. The market price decreased in some areas. The cost support is weak, the terminal demand is weak, and the production is expected to increase in Inner Mongolia. It is expected to run weakly in the short term [1][3] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5322 yuan/ton, down 2.28%. The production in the main producing areas is decreasing, but it has no obvious support for the price. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. It is expected to run weakly in the short term [3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract spreads**: The contract spreads of various varieties have different changes, such as the 10 - 1 month spread of rebar being - 7.0, up 7.0 [4] - **Basis**: The basis of various varieties also shows different trends, for example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar is 142.0, up 6.0 [4] - **Spot prices**: The spot prices of various varieties have different degrees of increase or decrease, like the Shanghai rebar spot price rising 20 yuan/ton to 3120 yuan/ton [4] - **Profits and spreads**: The profits and spreads of various varieties have changed, such as the rebar disk profit being 102.5, up 3.2 [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main contract prices**: There are price trend charts of main contracts for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][9][14][17] - **Main contract basis**: There are basis trend charts of main contracts for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [19][20][23][25] - **Inter - period contract spreads**: There are spread trend charts of inter - period contracts for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [27][31][33][35][36][39] - **Inter - variety contract spreads**: There are spread trend charts of inter - variety contracts such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [41][42][43][45] - **Rebar profits**: There are profit trend charts of rebar including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][49][50] 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52] - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of resource products [52] - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52] - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to experience weak oscillations as downstream demand has reached a temporary peak [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to trade in a low - level range due to the anticipation of a negative feedback mechanism [2][7][8]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to have a weak oscillation as the main production areas resume operations, while silicomanganese is likely to be weak due to the pressure on port ore transactions [2][12]. - Coke is at the bottom - end of the oscillation after the second round of price cuts, and coking coal is also at the bottom - end of the oscillation [2][16]. - Thermal coal is expected to have a weak oscillation as coal mine inventories increase [2][19]. - Logs are expected to have repeated oscillations [2][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 707.0 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton or 1.22%. The previous day's position was 716,254 lots, down 5,254 lots. Spot prices of various iron ore types increased, with the basis and spreads showing different changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to April, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 26.2755 trillion yuan, unchanged from the previous year, and the total profit was 1.34914 trillion yuan, down 1.7% year - on - year [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 2,964 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton or 0.77%, with a trading volume of 1,333,951 lots and a position of 2,441,388 lots, up 41,409 lots. For hot - rolled coil HC2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,100 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton or 0.55%, with a trading volume of 452,531 lots and a position of 1,537,114 lots, up 23,289 lots. Spot prices generally decreased, and the basis and spreads changed accordingly [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data from Shanghai Steel Union on May 29, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 5.97 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 13.87 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 8.41 tons. In terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 23.17 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 7.38 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 32.94 tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar increased by 1.55 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 13.87 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 9.23 tons. In April 2025, China's steel exports were 10.462 million tons, basically the same as the previous month; from January to April, the cumulative steel exports were 37.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In April, the global crude steel production decreased by 0.3% year - on - year to 155.7 million tons. In mid - May 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel decreased by 0.3%, pig iron decreased by 0.4%, and steel increased by 1.9% [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Rebar is 0 (neutral), and hot - rolled coil is 0 (neutral) [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon futures, the 2507 contract closed at 5322 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton; the 2509 contract closed at 5226 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan/ton. For silicomanganese futures, the 2506 contract closed at 5492 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan/ton; the 2509 contract closed at 5530 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton. Spot prices and various price differences also showed corresponding changes [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On May 29, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions decreased by 50 yuan/ton in some areas. South32 announced the offer prices for South African semi - carbonate lumps and Australian lumps in July 2025, with an increase in the price of South African semi - carbonate lumps compared to the previous month. A steel mill in Henan set the price of silicomanganese at 5550 yuan/ton for a purchase volume of 5000 tons [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Ferrosilicon is - 1 (weak bearish), and silicomanganese is - 1 (weak bearish) [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal futures JM2509, the previous day's closing price was 759 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 2.57%, with a trading volume of 709,680 lots and a position of 540,328 lots, up 13,462 lots. For coke futures J2509, the previous day's closing price was 1332 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton or 0.49%, with a trading volume of 28,870 lots and a position of 56,432 lots, down 1050 lots. Spot prices of coking coal and coke changed, and the basis and spreads also showed corresponding fluctuations [16]. - **Price and Position Information**: Northern port coking coal quotes are provided, and the CCI metallurgical coal index on May 29 shows price changes. On May 29, from the position of the top 20 members of the DCE, the long position of coking coal JM2509 increased by 12,175 lots, and the short position increased by 8353 lots; the long position of coke J2509 increased by 50 lots, and the short position decreased by 810 lots [16][17][18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Coke is - 1 (weak bearish), and coking coal is - 1 (weak bearish) [18]. Thermal Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The ZC2506 contract of thermal coal had no trading the previous day. The opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.4 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's settlement price, with a trading volume of 18 lots and a position of 0 lots [19]. - **Fundamental Information**: Southern port quotes for foreign - traded thermal coal and domestic production area quotes for thermal coal are provided. On May 29, from the position of the top 20 members of the ZCE, the long and short positions of the ZC2506 contract both decreased by 0 lots [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [21]. Logs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Data on closing prices, trading volumes, positions, basis, and spot prices of different log contracts and varieties are provided, along with daily and weekly price change rates [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to April, the national real estate development investment was 2.773 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%, and residential investment decreased by 9.6% [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [26].