2026广东省两会系列学习笔记之四 特约评论员 熊夏柠 1月26日至27日，"广货行天下 粤味贺岁来"2026广东特色农产品进北京营销活动在北京举行。1月27 日，洽谈推介活动在新发地国际农产品会展中心举行。广东企业组团走进新发地批发市场，现场对接多 家采购商，既丰富了北京消费者的年货采购选择，又与京津冀市场展开了深度对接，为"广货行天下"春 季行动之农产品促销系列活动注入了新活力和新动能。 "广货行天下"取得了开门红。"广货行天下"春季行动自1月15日启动以来，已在佛山、东莞、深圳、中 山成功举办家电、手机、消费电子、灯饰等工业产品促销活动。广货销售在各平台更是火爆，平台设有 广货专区，通过优惠券补贴和流量支持等方式，助企扩大销售。 不仅如此，在广东省两会期间，"广货"也大放异彩，会场上广东各地的风味与风物，令人印象深刻，英 德红茶、连州菜心、潮汕橄榄、阳江花生油、惠州年桔……向全国和全球消费者展示了广货的魅力。 近年来，广东高度重视乡村特色产业发展，全省重点培育10个千亿元、20个百亿元级和超200个十亿元 级产业集群，强调做好"土特产"文章，从农产品的研发培育、生产加工以及市场营销全链条加强打造。 我们 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 1 - month report finalized the production of US soybeans in 2025, with the output significantly lower than market expectations. The South American supply pressure, especially from Brazil's expected bumper harvest, is large. The only relatively positive factor is the potential impact of high - temperature and drought on Argentina's soybean yield [7][57][58]. - In January, the trading volume of soybean meal increased again. There was pre - holiday stockpiling demand and concerns about supply in March - April. The terminal demand is relatively stable [7][58]. - The 05 basis of the spot may be strong in February. The CBOT soybean futures may trade in a narrow range in the next month, and the upward space of domestic soybean meal 05 contract is limited. It is recommended to treat it as a narrow - range shock before the holiday, and be cautiously bearish after the rebound under the neutral assumption of soybean auction quantity and Argentina's weather [7][58][59]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Upstream: Planting and Export 1.1 Soybean Supply - The USDA January report finalized the production of US soybeans in 2025. Although the yield was high, the export decreased and the ending inventory increased, making the supply - demand relationship more relaxed. The USDA estimated that Brazil's soybean output would reach 178 million tons and Argentina's would reach 4.85 million tons [9]. - Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing, and the overall progress is normal with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Argentina has basically completed sowing and will enter the critical growth stage in February. The weather in southern Brazil and Argentina is a concern [10]. 1.2 Exports of Major Producing Countries - The US Department of Agriculture expects Brazil's soybean exports in 2025/26 to reach 114 million tons, with good export prospects and likely to set a new record. The export volume in December and the cumulative export volume from October showed significant year - on - year growth [17][18]. - The US Department of Agriculture predicts that US soybean exports in 2025/26 will be 42.86 million tons, a year - on - year decrease. As of January 22, the cumulative export sales volume was lower than the same period last year, and the export completion rate was also lower [19][20][22]. Mid - stream: China's Soybean Import and Pressing 2.1 China's Soybean Import - In December, China imported 8.044 million tons of soybeans. The cumulative import from October to December in 2025/26 increased by 10.6% year - on - year. It is expected to set a new record in 2025. The arrival volume is expected to decrease seasonally, and the port inventory will decline until April [27][30]. 2.2 China's Soybean Pressing and Inventory - As of January 29, the spot and futures margin of Brazilian soybeans were 350 yuan/ton and 16 yuan/ton respectively, and those of US Gulf soybeans were 38 yuan/ton and - 296 yuan/ton. The start - up rate and pressing volume are expected to remain low before the Spring Festival. The soybean inventory is in the destocking stage, and attention should be paid to the impact of soybean auctions from February to March [40][42]. Downstream: Feed and Aquaculture 3.1 Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory - As of January 23, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 815,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 111%. In January, the trading volume of soybean meal increased again due to pre - holiday stockpiling and concerns about future supply [44][47]. 3.2 Pig Farming - As of January 23, the average profit per pig for self - breeding and self - raising was 43.35 yuan/head, and that for purchasing piglets was 115.84 yuan/head. The pig slaughter volume from January to May is estimated, and attention should be paid to the support of the high inventory in the first quarter for soybean meal demand. The national industrial feed production in 2025 maintained a good trend, and it is expected to be close to that in 2025 in the first half of 2026 [50][51]. 3.3 Poultry Farming - At the end of January, the price of white - feather broilers was slightly strong, and the market supply was sufficient. The egg - laying hen farming profit recovered in January, and the inventory has shown a downward trend, and it is expected to decline slowly [54][55]. Later Outlook and Strategy - The supply pressure in the new year is still large. The demand for soybean meal increased in January, and the terminal demand is relatively stable. The spot basis may be strong in February. Futures may trade in a narrow range, and it is recommended to be cautiously bearish after the rebound under neutral assumptions [57][58][59]. - Strategies: Spot merchants can expect the basis to be strong in February; futures speculators can expect a narrow - range shock before the holiday and higher volatility after the holiday, and be cautiously bearish after the rebound under neutral assumptions [59]. - Important variables: China's continued purchase of US soybeans, Argentina's weather, and the frequency and quantity of imported soybean auctions [60].

"粤字号"农产品 进上海 市民年 货清单添粤味_ 南方+_南方plus 当清雅的兰花遇 见海派雅居，当 鲜美的粤式煲仔 饭飘香黄浦江 畔，一场跨越千 里的岭南风味与 海派生活的对话 正在上海展开。 1月30日，"广货 行天下"之广东 特色农产品进上 海营销活动在广 东名特优新农产 品（上海）推介 中心举行。十余 家广东企业携地 道广货齐聚，将 浓郁岭南年味送 入申城，既为上 海市民的年货清 单增添粤味，又 深化与长三角市 场的产销联动， 助力"广货行天 下"春季行动走 深走实。 粤味组团把年味 搬进上海 "广货行天下"之广东特色农产品进上海营销活动现场 此次广东企业带 来的产品涵盖节 庆食品、粮油禽 肉、特色生鲜、 年花年桔以及现 代化海洋牧场产 品等多个品类。 梅州柚及其加工产品 "广东特色农产 品用过硬品质赢 得认可，既源于 广东农业始终坚 持的标准化生 产、品牌化运 营、数字化赋 能，更离不开各 地市场对岭南风 味的喜爱与信 赖。"现场，广 东省农业农村厅 党组副书记黎明 表示，此次亮相 上海的农产品， 既延续了"清中 求鲜、简中见 醇"的粤菜精 髓，又适配了上 海市民对高品质 生活的追求。期 待以活动 ...

《直播电商监督管理办法》2月1日起施行。针对直播电商行业特点，办法将数字人主播等人工智能 生成内容纳入监管，避免新技术成为生成或传播虚假信息的"挡箭牌"，促进人工智能技术在直播电商领 域的规范应用。办法规定，使用人工智能生成的人物图像、视频从事直播电商活动的，应当进行标识， 并持续向消费者提示。 防范整治拒收人民币现金行为 《人民币现金收付及服务规定》2月1日起施行。规定指出，除因履行法律、法规、规章规定的义务 或法定职责而应使用非现金支付工具情形外，不得拒收现金，不得要求或诱导他人拒收现金，不得对现 金支付采取歧视性措施，损害现金支付便利。支持现金支付的收费单位、经营主体，应保持合理的零钱 备付，具备必要的收现条件，保证现金支付顺畅。 对蔬果等农产品施行"承诺达标合格证"管理；将"AI主播"纳入直播电商监管范围；防范整治拒收人 民币现金行为……2月新规一起来看！ 蔬果禽蛋等须持"放心证"上市 《农产品质量安全承诺达标合格证管理办法》2月1日起施行。"承诺达标合格证"证明该农产品未使 用禁用农药、兽药及其他化合物且使用的常规农药、兽药残留不超标等。办法提出，蔬菜（含人工种植 的食用菌）、水果、茶鲜叶、畜禽、禽 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton, Pulp, Sugar, Apple, Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market of soft commodities shows mixed trends, with different products having their own supply - demand situations and price trends. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for most products [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Product Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures dropped significantly today, with short - term trends likely to be volatile. The overall domestic cotton market shows strong supply and demand, but short - term trading may slow down due to the approaching Spring Festival. As of January 22, cumulative processed lint cotton was 719.0 million tons, and cumulative sales were 463.1 million tons. In December, domestic cotton imports increased. Spinning mills still have demand for raw materials, but downstream orders are average. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production is nearing the end, and the market focuses on the next season's production forecast. Rainfall in Brazil's central - southern region is a concern. The sugar - to - ethanol ratio is expected to decline, and Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season may decrease. In China, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded. Both production and sales progress are slow. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - Apple futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. The Spring Festival stocking peak has arrived, and the sales pace has accelerated. However, the purchase of farmers' apples is less, and the supply of high - quality apples is limited. As of January 29, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 601.01 million tons, a 9% year - on - year decrease. This week's cold - storage destocking volume was 31.31 million tons, a 45.11% year - on - year decrease. The market trading logic has shifted to demand. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR first rose and then fell. Global natural rubber supply is entering the reduction period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate has dropped significantly. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate continues to rise. The domestic full - steel tire operating rate decreased slightly, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increased slightly. Shandong tire enterprises' finished product inventory continues to increase. The overall rubber situation shows general demand, reduced supply, a slight decrease in natural rubber inventory, and an increase in synthetic rubber inventory. The cost support is strong, and geopolitical risks are rising. The strategy is to adjust in a volatile manner [5] Pulp - Today, pulp futures dropped significantly. Pulp is restricted by weak downstream demand, and its short - term fundamentals remain weak. As of January 29, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 216.9 million tons, a 4.9% month - on - month increase. Downstream paper mills are cautious about high - priced raw material procurement. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the support near the previous low [6] Logs - Log futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. The external market quotation was lowered, and the domestic spot price remained weak. The short - term arrival volume will decrease. As of January 23, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 6.18 million cubic meters, a 194.29% year - on - year increase. The national port log inventory was 249 million cubic meters, an 11.7% year - on - year decrease. Low inventory provides some support for prices. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

过去一年，铜、金、银等品种的快速上涨，重新点燃了市场对"大宗商品超级周期"的想象。但问题是：这轮上涨，究竟只是结构 性行情，还是一轮真正意义上的商品大牛市前奏？ 国联民生证券在最新发布的资产配置系列报告中，从1850年以来超过170年的长周期视角，对商品牛市的形成条件进行了系统复 盘，给出的结论并不激进，甚至略显克制——本轮商品周期尚未"走完必要步骤"。 国联民生证券指出，历史上真正的商品大牛市，往往并非始于繁荣，而是从经济低谷中诞生，并最终在经济过热甚至衰退中完成 定价。 百年复盘：真正的商品牛市，平均持续12年，但起点都很"冷" 国联民生证券基于 David Jacks 的实际商品价格指数，并结合 Christiano–Fitzgerald 滤波，对1850年以来的商品价格进行了长周期 分解，识别出5轮典型的商品上涨大周期。 这些周期有几个高度一致的特征： 更关键的是，每一轮商品大周期的起点，几乎都对应着一次经济低谷或危机后的阶段性"出清"： 平均持续约11.8年 剔除通胀后，实际商品价格平均上涨约79%，若考虑通胀，名义涨幅约125% 上涨并非线性，而是伴随宏观波动反复推进 1897年：长期通缩与工业调 ...

中新网广西新闻1月30日电 （陈瑾琳）为全面落实农产品质量安全法要求，确保《农产品质量安全承诺 达标合格证管理办法》（以下简称《办法》）自2026年2月1日起顺利施行，广西紧盯关键环节，采取五 项举措，着力构建"主动开证、凭证流通、依证监管"的长效机制，筑牢农产品质量安全防线。 面向消费 广西还积极拓展合格证的应用场景与价值内涵。通过政策牵引，将合格证开具和使用情况与农业项目申 报、品牌认证等挂钩，激励主体主动规范用证。重点推动绿色优质农产品逐步实现溯源码和合格证 码"两码合一赋码上市"，形成我区特色有效的农产品质量安全管理模式。 群众宣贯承诺达标合格证。陈瑾琳 供图 作为农产品质量安全法的重要配套制度，《办法》全面实施将进一步压实生产经营者主体责任，推动农 产品质量安全治理模式从"被动应对"向"主动防控"深刻转变。下一步，广西将持续加强部门协作与执法 监督，严查"应开未开、虚假开具、伪造变造"等违法行为，对违规主体依法采取责令整改、罚款处罚等 措施。同时，畅通意见建议收集渠道，建立健全"执行—反馈—优化"闭环管理机制，持续优化操作流程 与服务供给，实现农产品"带证上市、凭证流通、全程可溯、社会共治"的目标， ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.96% to close at 4117.95 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.66% to 14205.89 points. In contrast, the ChiNext Index rose by 1.27% to 3346.36 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 286.27 billion, a decrease of 39.7 billion from the previous day [3][5]. Sector Performance - Technology stocks emerged as the unexpected leaders in supporting the market, particularly driven by the strong performance of "Yizhongtian," which saw an average increase of around 6%. This significantly impacted the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices, while financial stocks, which were previously expected to support the market, became the main force behind the sell-off, with the securities sector down 1.72%, insurance down 1.1%, and banking down 0.41% [4][6]. Trading Dynamics - The market experienced a notable sell-off today, marking one of the largest adjustments in recent times, with trading volume shrinking to approximately 2.86 trillion. This indicates that the market cooling measures have had some effect, particularly in suppressing speculative trading in thematic stocks [5][6]. Commodity and Sector Trends - The metal-related sectors collectively faced significant declines, with precious metals down 8.52%, energy metals down 7.29%, and mining down 5.53%. This was largely attributed to sharp fluctuations in gold prices, which dropped from $5626 per ounce to around $5400, affecting the performance of related commodities [7][9]. Agricultural Sector Insights - The agricultural and aquaculture sectors showed resilience, with some stocks rising despite the overall market downturn. However, the sustainability of this rally is questionable, as the sector has not undergone sufficient adjustment, and price increases may not lead to lasting trends due to overcapacity in domestic industries [8][9]. Key Signals - Two critical signals warrant attention: first, the gold market appears to have reached a turning point, with speculative trading potentially nearing its end. Second, significant volatility was observed in the U.S. stock market, particularly with the Nasdaq index, which reflects ongoing debates about the sustainability of AI-related investments, especially following substantial declines in major tech stocks like Microsoft [9][10].

食用农产品市场：30种蔬菜平均批发价格每公斤5.75元，上涨1.8%，其中西葫芦、大白菜、黄瓜分别上 涨9.1%、6.4%和5.4%。水产品批发价格小幅上涨，其中鲤鱼、大黄鱼、鲫鱼分别上涨1.2%、1.1%和 0.9%。肉类批发价格总体上涨，其中猪肉每公斤19.09元，上涨1.4%，羊肉、牛肉分别上涨0.9%和 0.4%。禽产品批发价格小幅波动，其中鸡蛋上涨4.3%，白条鸡下降0.3%。6种水果平均批发价格基本持 平，其中柑橘、香蕉、梨分别上涨1.7%、0.9%和0.3%，西瓜、葡萄、苹果分别下降1.0%、0.6%和 0.5%。粮油批发价格稳中有降，其中面粉与前一周基本持平，豆油、花生油、大米、菜籽油分别下降 0.3%、0.3%、0.2%和0.1%。 生产资料市场：有色金属价格小幅下降，其中锌、铜、铝分别下降2.1%、2.0%和0.8%。橡胶价格略有 回落，其中天然橡胶、合成橡胶分别下降0.6%和0.2%。钢材价格略有下降，其中槽钢、普通中板、螺 纹钢每吨3547元、3637元和3363元，分别下降0.3%、0.2%和0.2%。化肥价格略有波动，其中尿素下降 0.1%，三元复合肥上涨0.1%。煤炭价格小幅波动 ...

资产配置系列报告 百年浮沉，商品距离"大牛市"还缺什么？ glmszqdatemark 风险提示：历史经验不能直接作为投资建议；历史复盘的结论可能存在偏差。 2026 年 01 月 30 日 [Table_Author] 分析师 陶川 执业证书： S0590525110006 邮箱： taochuan@glms.com.cn 分析师 邵翔 执业证书： S0590525120004 邮箱： shaoxiang@glms.com.cn 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 | 目录 | | --- | 针对大宗商品的长周期复盘研究。本报告主要对商品 20 年以上的长周期进行复 盘研究，因此重点在关注长期的结构性因素。 1850 年以来的 5 轮商品上涨大周期。我们结合 David Jacks 的数据和 CF 滤波得 出 5 轮大的上涨周期，平均持续 11.8 年，平均上涨 125%。 从商品大类上看周期。能源、金属是经典的周期品种；农产品则相对跑输；贵金 属直到主要经济体放弃金本位之后，才开始成为周期上涨的主角。 我们选择战争、技术革命和新兴需求三个结构性因素来分 ...