1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products: - **Oscillating**: Oils and fats, protein meal, corn, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, sugar, pulp, double - gum paper, logs - **Oscillating weakly**: Live pigs - **Oscillating strongly**: Cotton - **Oscillating strongly in the short - term**: Synthetic rubber 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. It provides short - term, medium - term, and long - term outlooks for each product and offers corresponding investment strategies based on the analysis [1][5][7][9][10]. 3. Summary by Product Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Oils and fats oscillate and rebound. - **Logic**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East lead to high - level oscillation of oil prices. The US biodiesel policy and the planting area report from the US Department of Agriculture are to be released. In the domestic market, the shutdown of oil mills reduces soybean oil inventory, while demand is weak. For palm oil, production reduction and export growth in Malaysia boost market sentiment, but high prices and the Middle East conflict may suppress demand. For rapeseed oil, the supply is expected to increase, and the inventory has decreased weekly [5]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying at phased lows [6]. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The spot market has weak supply and demand, and the double - meal disk oscillates. - **Logic**: Internationally, the expected Chinese policy - based procurement and the upcoming release of the US EPA's biodiesel quota boost the US soybean futures price. The expected increase in the US soybean planting area and high inventory may limit the upward space. Domestically, the soybean meal futures price rises due to the cost - side drive of the US soybean price. The spot market has a game between oil mills and feed mills [7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Rapeseed meal generally follows soybean meal but is weaker [7]. Corn - **Viewpoint**: Corn continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: The temperature rise accelerates the supply of damp grain, and the increased supply of old wheat may put pressure on the market. However, the supply pressure is not significant, and the downstream demand is stable. The inventory of grain - using enterprises has stopped decreasing and increased marginally [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Pay attention to the callback pressure caused by the increase in damp grain supply and the expected release of brown rice. In the medium - term, corn is expected to be bullish [9]. Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The supply of live pigs is sufficient, and the price continues to decline. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply increases, and the demand is weak. In the medium - term, the high inventory of sows in 2025 leads to a large number of piglet births in 2026, resulting in high pressure on hog slaughter. In the long - term, the sow inventory has decreased since the second half of 2025, but the increase in sow productivity may offset the impact. The current process of capacity reduction is not smooth [1][10]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. In the first half of the year, it is recommended to focus on the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices. It is expected that the pig price will bottom out and recover in the third quarter and rise moderately in the fourth quarter [2][10]. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The market atmosphere is warm, and the disk continues to rebound. - **Logic**: The non - escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the high - level operation of synthetic rubber drive the rebound of natural rubber. The supply in overseas producing areas may be affected by the Middle East conflict, and the downstream tire orders to the Middle East are affected. Seasonally, there is an adjustment demand [11][12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. If there is no further fermentation of events, wait for the opportunity to buy on dips [12]. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The disk breaks through the 18,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: The tight supply of butadiene is strengthened. The disruption of the supply of key raw materials such as naphtha due to the Middle East conflict leads to the reduction of butadiene supply. Even if the cost of raw materials is higher than that of downstream products, the price is still likely to rise as long as the geopolitical situation is tense [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term. If the oil price continues to rise, the disk will remain strong [13][14]. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are good, and there is strong support below. - **Logic**: The domestic cotton processing and inspection work is completed, the commercial inventory has decreased, and the downstream demand in the peak season is good. In the long - term, the expected reduction of the planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 provides an upward drive, but the specific policy details are to be announced [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly. In the long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [14]. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The short - term main theme is that the sugar price oscillates with the oil price. - **Logic**: The short - term oil price fluctuation caused by the Middle East conflict leads to the oscillation of the sugar price. In the long - term, if the oil price remains high, it may affect the Brazilian new - season production and tighten the global sugar supply [16][17]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton. There may be an upward drive in the long - term [17]. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The pulp price declined yesterday, and the pressure still exists. - **Logic**: The consumption of broad - leaf pulp is strong, while that of coniferous pulp is weak. The demand in the 4 - 6 month period usually decreases seasonally, and the overseas coniferous pulp inventory is high. However, the cost provides support for the price [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The price is expected to oscillate within the range of 4950 - 5350 yuan/ton [18]. Double - Gum Paper - **Viewpoint**: Weakly oscillating. - **Logic**: The market is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the fundamentals have no obvious changes. The resumption of some maintenance devices increases the industry's operating rate, but the profit of paper mills is poor, and the production increase is limited. In the short - and medium - term, the demand in the peak season and the paper mills' profit - repair demand may support the price, but in the long - term, the loose supply - demand situation limits the price increase [20][21]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 3800 - 4300 yuan/ton in the first half of 2026 [21]. Logs - **Viewpoint**: Strongly oscillating. - **Logic**: The price of logs is mainly driven by cost and supply contraction. The high oil price increases the shipping cost, and the New Zealand suppliers reduce production and raise prices. The low inventory and strong demand in the downstream lead to a supply - demand mismatch [22]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly. The price is expected to maintain a range - bound operation, with strong support below and obvious hedging pressure above [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current dynamics in the agricultural commodity market, emphasizing that the apparent "commodity rotation" is driven by macro narratives rather than fundamental changes. The key investment focus should be on identifying whether the main driving force for each commodity is "industrial reality" or "cost inflation" [3]. Group 1: Cotton Market - The cotton market faces a significant contradiction between high domestic prices and weak downstream demand, leading to a tug-of-war situation. Domestic cotton prices are high, but the cotton yarn sector struggles to raise prices, resulting in negative profit margins [4]. - Domestic cotton production has been adjusted downwards, yet the demand remains lackluster, with exports constrained by external factors and only seasonal domestic demand showing slight improvement [4]. - The key support for domestic cotton prices comes from high planting costs and policy support, but this creates a scenario where costs are strong but upward price movement is weak [5]. Group 2: Lumber Market - The lumber market is primarily driven by rising import costs due to geopolitical conflicts, which have increased international oil prices and shipping costs, leading to higher CFR quotes [6]. - However, this is contrasted by weak domestic demand, particularly in the real estate sector, with a notable divergence between northern and southern markets [6]. - Future lumber prices will depend on the interplay between cost expectations and weak demand, with a need to monitor shipping costs closely [6]. Group 3: Sugar Market - The sugar market is currently influenced by energy price dynamics, particularly the rising oil prices that affect ethanol values, which in turn impacts sugar production decisions in Brazil [7]. - There is a significant divergence between international and domestic markets, with external markets trading on energy expectations while domestic markets remain rational due to high domestic sugar supply [7]. - The future direction of sugar prices will hinge on whether high oil prices can effectively translate into higher domestic ethanol prices, thereby impacting sugar production ratios [7]. Group 4: Pulp Market - The pulp market is characterized by weak supply and demand dynamics, with no significant disruptions on the supply side and stable demand from downstream sectors [8]. - Price movements are more influenced by macroeconomic sentiments and related commodities rather than intrinsic supply-demand imbalances [8]. - Future price trends are expected to remain within a range, with upward movements requiring unexpected demand recovery or supply-side disruptions [8]. Group 5: Live Pig Market - The live pig market is undergoing a deep cyclical bottoming process, with prices falling below 10 yuan/kg, marking a ten-year low and leading to significant industry losses [9]. - Despite the current losses, the decline in feed costs has lessened the severity of losses compared to previous years, and there is significant pressure from high inventory levels [9]. - The market outlook is focused on the balance between weak realities and expectations for capacity clearance, with potential for recovery anticipated in later months [10]. Group 6: Egg Market - The egg market is experiencing a "weak-driven fluctuation" with limited trend space for significant price movements, as production capacity is slowly being reduced [11]. - The key to future capacity changes lies in increasing culling rates, with high culling prices encouraging farmers to reduce stock [11]. - The market outlook suggests a focus on structural opportunities as production capacity gradually decreases, although there are potential risks from future culling rates and production increases [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The soybean price in the Northeast region has slightly declined, but the support below the futures price is strong, with limited short - term adjustment space and a mid - term upward trend [1]. - The domestic corn market shows a regional - differentiated and multi - factor - intertwined volatile pattern. There is a short - term adjustment, but the downside space is limited, and it is advisable to wait for the adjustment to complete and then consider buying on dips [1][2]. - The egg price is supported by a decrease in production capacity in March and is expected to gradually move up in the long - term, but a small - scale adjustment should be watched out for after a sharp rise [2]. - The pig market is in a stage of capacity reduction, with low prices and poor profits in the short - term. The price may gradually recover in the second half of the year [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - In the Northeast region, due to increased planting costs, scarce grassroots inventory, and intensified geopolitical conflicts, along with weak overall demand, the soybean price has slightly declined, while the high - protein soybean price is relatively firm. Traders are mostly on the sidelines. In the inland region, the soybean circulation is slow, and the market is hard to stabilize. On March 26, the actual transaction volume of the state - owned soybean auction was 64,941 tons out of the planned 104,095 tons, with a base price of 4,500 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 4,505 yuan/ton [1]. Corn - The domestic corn market is regionally differentiated. In North China, the supply is high, the inventory of deep - processing enterprises is accumulating, and the price is slightly weak, with the current purchase price ranging from 2,420 to 2,500 yuan/ton. In Northeast China, the sales of ground - stored grain are coming to an end, and the supply has increased recently, with some deep - processing purchase prices slightly reduced by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. There is a short - term adjustment in the corn price, but the downside space is limited [1][2]. Egg - As of the end of February 2026, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.35 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. However, due to a significant decrease in new - laying hens from March to April and an expected decline in the inventory from April to May, along with a decrease in egg supply in March, the egg price is supported to rise. After a sharp rise, a small - scale adjustment should be watched out for [2]. Pig - Affected by factors such as the post - holiday decline in consumer demand, the pig price has entered the first - level early - warning range of excessive decline. The March pig slaughter plan of key provincial - level large - scale breeding enterprises has increased by 17.63% month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight has reached 128.55 kg. The market supply is large, the demand is weak, and the breeding profit has deteriorated. The pig market is in a capacity - reduction stage in the short - term, and the price may recover in the second half of the year [3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn is expected to be in a weak and volatile trend. The main short - position holders of the May contract reduced their positions, providing short - term price support. Northeast corn prices are stable, North China prices are slightly weak with limited downward space, and sales area prices are rising. The 2605 contract of corn fluctuates after the wheat supply policy, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to be volatile. CBOT soybeans rose due to bargain - hunting, while domestic protein meal declined. Factors such as weak US soybeans, falling crude oil, and the China - Brazil agricultural meeting are negative for the market. Short - term participation is advised [1]. - Fats and oils are expected to be volatile. BMD palm oil fell to a two - week low due to falling crude oil and other fats. The domestic fats and oils market is weak, following the decline in import costs. Short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Eggs are expected to be volatile. The 2605 contract of eggs rose slightly. Spot prices are mostly stable, and the futures are expected to be range - bound with the lower limit of the range rising due to cost support [1]. - For the pig market, the description is the same as that of corn, with short - term price support from the reduction of short - positions in the May contract, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Corn**: On Wednesday, corn reduced positions and adjusted. The main short - position holders of the May contract left the market, supporting short - term prices. Northeast corn prices are stable, North China prices are slightly weak, and sales area prices are rising. Technically, the 2605 contract fluctuates after the wheat supply policy, and short - term participation is recommended [1][2]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans rose due to bargain - hunting, while US soybean meal fell. The domestic protein meal continued to decline, affected by factors such as weak US soybeans, falling crude oil, and the China - Brazil agricultural meeting. Spot market prices continued to fall, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - **Fats and Oils**: On Wednesday, BMD palm oil fell to a two - week low. The domestic fats and oils market is weak, following the decline in import costs. Spot market is dull, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - **Eggs**: On Wednesday, egg futures fluctuated, and the 2605 contract rose 0.26%. Spot prices are mostly stable. After a continuous rise, the supply still pressures the egg price, and the futures are expected to be range - bound with the lower limit rising [1]. - **Pigs**: The description is the same as that of corn, with short - term price support from the reduction of short - positions in the May contract, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3.2 Market Information - Military actions against Iran by the Israeli Defense Forces will continue for at least three more weeks, with thousands of targets remaining [2]. - The Pentagon is considering sending more warships to the Middle East to escort oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - At the end of February, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 349.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9% [2]. - In 2026, China will strengthen the bottom - line thinking and monitor and regulate the linkage between domestic and foreign, futures and spot markets [3]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China is 17187.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 69.66 tons; the daily average port clearance volume is 317.90 tons, an increase of 6.82 tons; the number of ships at ports is 110, a decrease of 2 [3]. - The rebound of iron ore prices at the end of February is mainly due to sentiment and technical repair, lacking fundamental support [3]. - The US Treasury issued a 30 - day license allowing countries to buy Russian oil and oil products stranded at sea [3]. - China will organize the early release of the 2025/2026 national fertilizer commercial reserve [3]. - After the US - Israel attack on Iran, energy and fertilizer prices soared, and the price of the urea futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose by more than 20% compared with before the attack [3]. - Iraq is ready to resume oil exports through the Ceyhan pipeline, with a daily export volume of no more than 300,000 barrels, while the Kurdistan region refuses to resume exports [4]. - Bahrain Aluminium Company has started phased production cuts due to the near - stagnation of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - As of March 12, the methanol inventory at East China ports was 54.80 tons, a decrease of 7.2 tons compared with March 5 [4]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of 5 - 9 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [5][6][7][8][11]. - **Contract Basis**: The report provides charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [9][13][15][17][23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. Core Views 1. Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may test the support at 4,500 ringgit, and Dalian palm oil futures will test the support at 9,500 yuan. If it breaks below 9,500 yuan, it may rise again. US biodiesel policy is approaching, and NOPA member companies' soybean oil inventory is at a 13 - year high. Domestic traders are cautious, and the supply is sufficient currently, but the refinery's operating rate may decline later, and the basis quote may rise slightly [1]. 2. Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures are slightly up. US cotton production areas face drought and cold air, and the inspection progress exceeds 100%. The domestic cotton market is in the second half of the "Golden March", with slower yarn transactions. The market is expected to be oscillating and slightly strong, and attention should be paid to spinning mills' orders and macro - news [2]. 3. Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures have fallen from a five - month high. Brazil's sugarcane crush volume is expected to increase, but sugar production may be adjusted down. India's sugar production is also expected to be lower. Domestic sugar imports exceed expectations, and the spot market is weak, but prices are supported. Short - term sugar futures are likely to maintain a high - level oscillation [4]. 4. Red Date Industry - The futures market has a small rebound at a low level, but the upside is limited due to weak consumption in the off - season. The inventory reduction is slow, and the number of registered futures warrants is decreasing year - on - year. It is recommended to short on rebounds [5]. 5. Apple Industry - The futures market has fallen from a high level, and the trading volume has decreased significantly. The spot market is divided, with good - quality apples having a good trading atmosphere and ordinary apples having inventory pressure. The national cold - storage inventory is at a historical low, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with attention to the inventory reduction of ordinary apples and weather changes [7]. 6. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - The corn price in the Northeast is stable, the price in the North Port is weak, and the price in North China is stable. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises exists, but the substitution of wheat is increasing. Policy - related factors such as wheat auctions and expected rice auctions may affect the price. Corn prices are under pressure but limited by low social inventory, and the operation range is 2,350 - 2,420 yuan/ton [9]. 7. Meal Industry - US soybean prices are supported at around 1,160 cents, with multiple factors affecting the market. Domestic soybean meal has digested concerns about shutdowns and supply continuity. The inventory is not loose, but the speculation is weak. There is a potential negative impact from the expected increase in soybean planting area [10]. 8. Pig Industry - The futures market is oscillating at the bottom, and the spot market is weak. The large - scale pig slaughter, high slaughter weight, and weak price difference between fat and lean pigs are not conducive to secondary fattening. The demand is in the off - season, and the market is pessimistic. The futures price has limited room to fall after breaking below 10,000 yuan, but the weak spot market may continue until April [12]. 9. Egg Industry - The supply of eggs is relatively loose, with an increase in the number of culled chickens and a slight increase in newly - laid hens. The demand is affected by high raw material prices and the end of pre - holiday stocking. The overall market is weak, and the egg price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [15]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats Industry - **Price Changes**: The spot price of soybean oil in Jiangsu is 8,970 - 9,040 yuan, down 70 yuan (-0.77%); the futures price of Y2605 is 8,594 yuan, down 146 yuan (-1.67%); the basis of Y2605 is 376 yuan, up 76 yuan (25.33%). The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong is 9,918 yuan, down 210 yuan; the futures price of P2605 is 9,942 yuan, down 298 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,378 yuan, down 140 yuan; the futures price of OI605 is 9,950 yuan, down 137 yuan [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The Malaysian palm oil market is affected by US soybean oil and crude oil. The domestic soybean oil market has sufficient supply currently, and the refinery's operating rate may decline. The rapeseed oil market is affected by the US - Iran cease - fire plan and the decline of US crude oil prices [1]. 2. Cotton Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price of cotton 2605 is 15,340 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan (0.39%); the futures price of cotton 2609 is 15,465 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan (0.42%); the 5 - 9 spread is - 125 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (-4.17%). The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 16,573 yuan, down 17 yuan (-0.10%); the CC Index of 3128B is 16,711 yuan, down 21 yuan (-0.13%) [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory is 0.00 million tons, down 547.70 million tons (-100%); the industrial inventory is 102.40 million tons, up 13.00 million tons (14.5%); the import volume is 16.65 million tons, down 3.91 million tons (-19.0%); the bonded area inventory is 47.10 million tons, up 4.20 million tons (9.8%) [2]. 3. Sugar Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price of sugar 2605 is 5,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of sugar 2609 is 5,461 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.02%); the 5 - 9 spread is - 32 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (-3.23%). The spot price in Nanning is 5,470 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming is 5,320 yuan, unchanged [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production cumulative value is 926.00 million tons, down 45.61 million tons (-4.69%); the national sugar sales cumulative value is 345.00 million tons, down 130.16 million tons (-27.39%); the sugar production in Guangxi cumulative value is 565.13 million tons, down 51.58 million tons (-8.36%) [4]. 4. Red Date Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price of red date 2605 is 8,890 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan (-0.39%); the futures price of red date 2607 is 9,060 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan (-0.33%); the futures price of red date 2609 is 9,265 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan (-0.48%); the 5 - 7 spread is - 170 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (-3.03%); the 5 - 9 spread is - 385 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (2.60%) [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The futures market rebounds slightly at a low level, but the consumption in the off - season is weak, and the inventory reduction is slow [5]. 5. Apple Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price of apple 2605 is 9,978 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan (-0.93%); the futures price of apple 2610 is 8,666 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan (0.41%); the 5 - 10 spread is 1,312 yuan/ton, down 129 yuan (-8.95%) [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The futures market falls from a high level, and the spot market is divided. The cold - storage inventory is at a historical low [7]. 6. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price of corn 2605 is 2,376 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan (-0.29%); the Jinzhou Port flat - cabin price is 2,390 yuan, down 20 yuan (-0.83%); the basis is 14 yuan, down 13 yuan (-48.15%); the 5 - 9 spread is - 23 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-9.52%). The futures price of corn starch 2605 is 2,763 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (-0.32%); the average price of corn starch is 2,972 yuan, down 5 yuan (-0.17%); the basis is 209 yuan, up 4 yuan (1.95%) [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The corn price in the Northeast is stable, the price in the North Port is weak, and the price in North China is stable. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises exists, but the substitution of wheat is increasing. Policy - related factors may affect the price [9]. 7. Meal Industry - **Price Changes**: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu is 3,280 yuan, down 20 yuan (-0.61%); the futures price of M2605 is 2,932 yuan, down 29 yuan (-0.98%); the basis of M2605 is 339 yuan, down 9 yuan (-2.65%). The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu is 2,560 yuan, down 40 yuan (-1.54%); the futures price of RM2605 is 2,339 yuan, down 26 yuan (-1.10%); the basis of RM2605 is 221 yuan, down 14 yuan (-5.96%) [10]. - **Market Analysis**: US soybean prices are affected by multiple factors. Domestic soybean meal has digested concerns about shutdowns and supply continuity, and the inventory is not loose [10]. 8. Pig Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price of the main contract of pigs 2605 is 9,980 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan (-0.65%); the futures price of pigs 2607 is 11,310 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan (0.53%); the 5 - 7 spread is - 1,330 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan (-10.37%) [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The futures market is oscillating at the bottom, and the spot market is weak. The large - scale pig slaughter, high slaughter weight, and weak price difference between fat and lean pigs are not conducive to secondary fattening [12]. 9. Egg Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price of egg 04 contract is 3,330 yuan/500KG, up 18 yuan (0.54%); the futures price of egg 05 contract is 3,410 yuan/500KG, up 9 yuan (0.26%); the 4 - 5 spread is - 80 yuan/500KG, up 9 yuan (10.11%) [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of eggs is relatively loose, and the demand is affected by high raw material prices and the end of pre - holiday stocking. The overall market is weak [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is complex and uncertain, significantly impacting various commodity markets. The short - term price trends of many commodities are highly volatile, and long - term trends are closely related to the development of the situation in the Middle East, especially the status of the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - The market sentiment fluctuates with the news related to the US - Iran conflict, affecting the short - term trends of precious metals, copper, aluminum, and other commodities [3][4]. - The supply and demand patterns of different commodities vary. Some commodities face supply pressure, while others have improving demand, and the overall market is in a state of dynamic adjustment. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: US crude inventories have increased significantly, far exceeding market expectations. The US - Iran negotiation situation is unclear, and the Strait of Hormuz has limited vessel traffic. Short - term oil prices have high two - way fluctuation risks, and the long - term trend depends on the strait's smoothness [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The geopolitical situation has a significant impact. There is a supply interruption risk, and the demand for fuel oil may increase in summer. The market is mainly driven by geopolitical factors, and any progress in the negotiation will cause wide - range oscillations [22]. - **Natural Gas**: Although not specifically mentioned in detail, the impact of the geopolitical situation on LNG is implied, with potential supply shortages and increased fuel oil demand as a substitute [22]. - **Coal (Coking Coal and Coke)**: The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream iron - making production has increased. The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to rise due to energy concerns caused by geopolitical conflicts [17][18]. - **LPG**: No relevant content provided. - **Naphtha**: No relevant content provided. - **Bitumen**: The supply of bitumen has decreased, and the inventory level is low. The price trend follows the oil price, but the downward space is limited [23]. Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: The short - term trend is unclear, waiting for the further development of the US - Iran conflict. The market sentiment swings with the relevant news [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The price is affected by the Middle East situation. The downstream buying is active when the price drops. The short - term price may fluctuate, and the key support level is at 91,000 yuan [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price fluctuates narrowly. The inventory and spot market feedback have improved, and the key support level is at 23,000 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: The short - term consumption is entering the peak season, and the price may enter a range - bound oscillation between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: The market is in a low - level consolidation pattern, and the price is expected to oscillate between 16,200 - 17,000 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The market is under pressure from a strong US dollar. The demand for stainless steel is lower than expected, and the inventory is high. The market is likely to be in a weak oscillation [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is stable, and the downstream has rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the short - term moving average price and the amplitude change [11]. - **Alumina**: The over - supply situation has improved slightly, but the long - term over - supply prospect remains. It is waiting for the guidance of Guinea's mining policy [7]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices have bottomed out and rebounded. The demand is increasing with the rise of iron - making production, and the inventory has increased slightly [19][20]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, and the demand is gradually recovering. The price is expected to oscillate [16]. Chemical Commodities - **Polyethylene, Polypropylene, and Propylene**: The supply of polyethylene is tight, and the price of polypropylene is high. The downstream demand is weak, and the market is affected by complex news [28]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The price of PVC has fallen from a high level, and the supply has decreased. The export market is expected to be good. Caustic soda is in a weak oscillation [29]. - **PX and PTA**: The prices are oscillating at a high level, affected by the US - Iran situation. The industry efficiency has declined, and the downstream consumption is slow [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply has decreased, and the price has fallen with the decline of oil prices. The market is affected by the Middle East situation [31]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber load has decreased slightly, and the bottle - chip efficiency has improved. The market is affected by the Middle East situation [32]. - **Methanol**: The import volume has decreased, and the domestic production has increased. The demand is recovering, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: The domestic production load has decreased, and the import volume is expected to decrease. The port inventory is decreasing [26]. - **Styrene**: The fundamentals are good, and the price is in a strong oscillation [27]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply pressure remains, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be bearish in the medium - term [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [14]. Agricultural Commodities - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The supply of Brazilian soybeans to China has recovered, which suppresses the domestic soybean meal. The market is affected by multiple factors such as the US - Iran situation and energy and fertilizer markets [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Canadian rapeseed has risen. The supply of rapeseed is expected to increase, and the pressure on the price is still there [38]. - **Corn**: The price has declined slightly, affected by the international situation and the increase of wheat auction [40]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The prices are affected by the US - Iran situation and the expectation of bio - fuel policies. The supply - chain risk of agricultural products is not clear [37]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: The spot price has continued to decline, and the inventory pressure is still large. The industry needs to reduce production capacity [41]. - **Eggs**: The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline, and the spot price is expected to strengthen. It is recommended to go long at a low position [42]. - **Cash Crops** - **Cotton**: The domestic demand in the peak season is good, and the inventory has decreased. The medium - term strategy is to be bullish [43]. - **Sugar**: The international market focuses on the new - season production in Brazil. The domestic sugar market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation [44]. - **Apples**: The futures price has回调, and the market focuses on the demand side. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. Other Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the inventory has changed. The market is affected by geopolitical risks and cost factors. It is recommended to wait and see and look for cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [34]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak oscillation. The inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to oscillate in a wide range [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The inventory is decreasing, but the supply pressure is still large. The price is affected by the macro - sentiment and cost [35]. - **Timber**: The price is oscillating. The supply is expected to be tight in the short - term, and the demand is recovering. The low inventory supports the price. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. - **Pulp**: The price has a certain support at the bottom. The port inventory is high but decreasing. The short - term is expected to oscillate in a low - level range [47]. Financial Commodities - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has risen, and the futures index has also increased. The geopolitical situation is uncertain. The medium - term configuration should be balanced, and the short - term strategy is to go long on broad - based indexes at a low position [48]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The market is in a narrow oscillation. The long - term bonds may have a rebound opportunity after over - decline [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, with the continuation of the war and low traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have rebounded, the US dollar index remains strong, and US Treasury yields have slightly declined, leading to a cooling of global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economy rebounded more than expected from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The overall economic and inflation situation was better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. The recent market trading logic has mainly focused on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short term, although the domestic economy is better than expected, the stock index will fluctuate weakly and with increased volatility due to the mixed geopolitical news. Currently, influenced by the US's signals of easing and a cease - fire, the domestic stock index market has recovered. [3][4] - For different asset classes, the stock index will rebound with short - term fluctuations and increased volatility, and it is advisable to wait and see carefully. Treasury bonds will fluctuate in the short term, and it is also advisable to wait and see carefully. In the commodity sector, the black metals will rebound with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see carefully; non - ferrous metals will rebound with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see carefully; energy and chemicals will fluctuate significantly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautious in going long; precious metals will fluctuate significantly and rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see carefully. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: With the continuation of the war and low traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have rebounded, the US dollar index remains strong, and US Treasury yields have slightly declined, leading to a cooling of global risk appetite. [3] - Domestic: From January to February, China's economy rebounded more than expected, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The overall economic and inflation situation was better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. [3][4] - Market: The recent market trading logic has mainly focused on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short term, although the domestic economy is better than expected, the stock index will fluctuate weakly and with increased volatility due to the mixed geopolitical news. Currently, influenced by the US's signals of easing and a cease - fire, the domestic stock index market has recovered. [3][4] - Asset Allocation: The stock index will rebound with short - term fluctuations and increased volatility, and it is advisable to wait and see carefully. Treasury bonds will fluctuate in the short term, and it is also advisable to wait and see carefully. [3] Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as military equipment, electricity, and communications, the domestic stock market has continued to rebound significantly. [4] - Fundamentally, from January to February, China's economy rebounded more than expected, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The overall economic and inflation situation was better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. [4] - The recent market trading logic has mainly focused on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short term, although the domestic economy is better than expected, the stock index will fluctuate weakly and with increased volatility due to the mixed geopolitical news. Currently, influenced by the US's signals of easing and a cease - fire, the domestic stock index market has recovered. It is advisable to wait and see carefully in the short term. [4] Precious Metals - On Wednesday night, the precious metals market rose overall. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 1016.92 yuan/gram, up 1.82%; the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 18000 yuan/kilogram, up 2.15%. [5] - As the market weighs the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the global market has fluctuated sharply, and the decline of the US dollar index has provided some support for precious metals. Spot gold has stabilized and rebounded, ending a nine - day losing streak, and finally closed up 1.54% at 4474.31 US dollars/ounce, but it is still suppressed by the strong US dollar and rising US Treasury yields; spot silver has turned from a decline to an increase, and finally closed up 2.8% at 71.05 US dollars/ounce. [5] - Precious metals will fluctuate significantly and rebound in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see carefully. [5] Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets declined slightly, and market transactions were at a low level. Recently, the steel market has mainly followed the fluctuations of energy prices, and the decline in oil prices has led to the weakness of the steel market in the past two trading days. The fundamentals have changed little, the actual demand is still weak, and although the steel inventory has peaked and declined, the apparent consumption growth rate of the five major varieties has slowed down. After the important meeting, the output of the five major varieties of steel increased by 18.85 tons week - on - week last week. This week, the molten iron output also continued to rise. In the short term, the steel market will still follow the cost. Attention should be paid to the price adjustment risk after the cost decline. [6][7] - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore declined significantly. The decline in oil prices and the news related to iron ore negotiations led to the weakness of iron ore futures and spot prices. On the demand side, the daily average molten iron output of blast furnaces increased by 6.9 tons week - on - week, and the proportion of profitable steel mills is still around 42%, so the demand for iron ore is still resilient. On the supply side, the shipping and arrival volume of iron ore have both increased this week, and the problem of short - term supply - demand imbalance is gradually being resolved. It is expected that there is limited room for the ore price to continue to rise, and attention should be paid to the short - term adjustment risk after the decline of energy prices. [7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined. The decline in oil prices has weakened the expectation of rising coal prices. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 6050 - 6150 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 6150 - 6250 yuan/ton. The manganese ore market quotation remains firm. The supply side shows that the national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises is 35.7%, an increase of 0.08% from last week; the daily average output is 27980 tons/day, a decrease of 225 tons. Currently, the start - up situation in the north is relatively stable, and factories are gradually hedging, with a good profit margin. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production area is 5550 - 5650 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5950 - 6100 yuan/ton. The steel procurement in March has basically ended, and the market is waiting for the entry situation in April. It is recommended to view the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with a bullish - biased and volatile mindset. [8] Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: According to current news, the US and Iran are indeed in negotiations, and the short - term situation has eased, with risk appetite rising. However, attention should be paid to the actual progress, which may bring significant fluctuations. The spot TC of copper is close to - 70 US dollars/ton, hitting a new low, but the profits from by - products such as sulfuric acid and precious metals have made up for the smelting profit. Coupled with the abundant supply of crude copper and the increase in scrap copper ingot imports, the growth rate of refined copper production is at a high level. The processing fee of southern crude copper is 1800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton from the previous high of 2400 yuan/ton, but still at a high level. The core contradiction in the fundamentals still lies in the mine end. It is a consensus in the market that copper mines are tight, but the probability of extreme shortage is not high. The domestic and foreign inventories have continued to accumulate, and the visible inventory of the three major exchanges is close to 1.29 million tons, reaching a record high. The copper price has dropped significantly, and downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks intensively at low prices, resulting in a significant decline in social copper inventory. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction. [9] - **Aluminum**: On Wednesday, the news of the negotiation between the US and Iran overnight stimulated the rise of risk appetite. The easing of the Middle - East situation is actually negative for aluminum, as the aluminum supply in the Middle - East will increase, so the rebound strength of aluminum is weaker than that of other non - ferrous metals. LME aluminum has fallen to the vicinity of the rising trend line. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support. From January to February, the year - on - year increase in domestic primary aluminum production was relatively large, and the pattern of domestic weakness and foreign strength may change temporarily. From the import data, the import of domestic primary aluminum has remained at a high level; the import of scrap aluminum has decreased slightly, and the overseas supply of scrap aluminum is relatively tight. Currently, the domestic aluminum supply is rigid and remains at a high level, with a 3% year - on - year increase in production from January to February, and the previously shut - down production capacity will resume production later, so the supply pressure still exists. [10] - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc mines are mainly distributed in the south. With the resumption of work and production, the zinc ore processing fee in the southern region has rebounded from 1300 yuan/metal ton to 1500 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee in the northern region has remained at 1500 yuan/metal ton. The TC of imported ore has decreased from 30 US dollars/dry ton to 20 US dollars/dry ton. The domestic smelting capacity is still expanding, and the profits from by - products have made up for the losses, so the domestic smelting output remains at a relatively high level. Overseas smelters cut production in 2025, but will resume production in 2026, with output increasing. The demand side is not optimistic. Real estate, infrastructure, transportation, and emerging fields such as photovoltaics are difficult to bring obvious boosts to photovoltaic demand, and may even decline. After the seasonal inventory accumulation of domestic zinc ingots, the inventory has turned to decline, reaching 219,600 tons, a decrease of 9,400 tons month - on - month, only slightly lower than the same period in 2022; the LME zinc inventory has increased to nearly 120,000 tons, which has increased significantly from the previous period. [10][11] - **Lead**: Due to the continuous opening of the import window from January to February, the imports of refined lead and crude lead in China have increased significantly in the first two months. Among them, the import of refined lead is 33,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 732%; the import of crude lead is 25,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85%. The import of lead ingots will remain at a high level in March. Domestically, the production of primary lead and secondary lead has increased seasonally. The latest weekly production of primary lead is 57,100 tons, at a high level in recent years. The recovery speed of secondary lead production is similar to that of previous years, and currently, the finished product inventory of secondary lead is 13,800 tons, the highest level since 2020. On the demand side, the peak season has passed and is gradually entering the off - season. The trade - in policy has overdrawn the later demand. Due to the decline in price, downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks intensively at low prices, and the social inventory of domestic primary lead has decreased, dropping 17,000 tons from the high point to 63,100 tons, slightly lower than the same period last year. Although the LME lead inventory has not fluctuated much recently, it is still at the highest level in the same historical period in recent years, remaining above 280,000 tons. [11] - **Nickel**: On Wednesday, the Indonesian Ministry of Finance stated that if approved by the government, it will start levying a windfall profit tax on nickel from April 1st. Driven by this news, the nickel price has risen. The mine end is still the core contradiction at present. The RKAB quota of Indonesia in 2026 has dropped significantly to 260 million wet tons. Although there is still room for improvement later, the increase is expected to be limited, and the year - on - year decline compared with 2025 has basically been determined. Since the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources requires mining enterprises to use one - quarter of the "old quota" in the first quarter, mining enterprises will maintain normal production in the first quarter without a supply gap. In addition, the Middle - East conflict has led to a shortage of sulfur in Indonesia, affecting the production of MHP. In addition, the previous tailings accident has also led to enterprise production cuts, so the supply of MHP is at risk of decline. The nickel price still has support at the bottom, but the upside space is limited by the high domestic and foreign inventories. [12] - **Tin**: On the supply side, in the first two months, the import of tin ore from Myanmar was 13,501 tons, a year - on - year increase of 175%, and the monthly average level was similar to that in November and December last year. With the acceleration of pumping in the mines in Wa State, Myanmar, it is expected that the import volume will still have room for further growth; the import of tin ore from other sources is 21,444 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of up to 57%, reflecting that the sources of tin ore imports in China are more diverse; the operating rate has slightly decreased by 0.42%, but it is still at a high level in the same period in recent years; due to the continuous closure of the import window, the import of tin ingots from January to February was 3,269 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27%. On the demand side, in January 2026, the global semiconductor sales increased by 46% year - on - year, with the growth rate further expanding. However, other traditional and emerging industries have performed poorly. The automobile production from January to February decreased by 9.9% year - on - year, the photovoltaic module production decreased by 26% year - on - year, and the home appliance production plan has continued to decline. The industry is significantly differentiated, and the semiconductor alone cannot support the overall demand, which is generally poor. As the tin price has dropped significantly, downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks intensively at low prices, and the social inventory of tin ingots has decreased by 2,770 tons to 11,035 tons. [13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Wednesday, the main contract of lithium carbonate 2605 rose 4.34%, with the latest settlement price of 158,220 yuan/ton. The weighted contract increased its position by 2,016 lots, with a total position of 595,800 lots. The SMM quoted the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate at 152,500 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 5,000 yuan), and the basis between futures and spot is - 5,480 yuan/ton. For lithium ore, the latest CIF price of Australian spodumene is 2,155 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 75 US dollars). The production profit of purchasing lithium mica is 6,289 yuan/ton, and the production profit of purchasing spodumene is 1,602 yuan/ton. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, the social inventory is continuously decreasing, and the inventory of smelters is at a low level. The strong - reality situation continues, and the export ban in Zimbabwe may cause a short - term supply - demand mismatch. It is expected that lithium carbonate will fluctuate in the support position range, and it is advisable to make long positions at low prices. [14] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract of industrial silicon 2605 rose 1.74%, with the latest settlement price of 8,685 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position is 370,100 lots, an increase of 20,576 lots. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 is 9,200 yuan/ton (month - on - month unchanged), and the futures are at a discount of 430 yuan/ton. In the situation of weak supply and demand, overcapacity, and high - level inventory accumulation, industrial silicon is priced close to the cost. The cost side is driven by coking coal. Attention should be paid to the cost support at the bottom, and interval operations are recommended. [14][15] - **Polysilicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract of polysilicon 2605 rose 2.77%, with the latest settlement price of 36,555 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position is 50,700 lots

2026年03月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：油价扰动持续，高位震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：豆系驱动不大，上方空间有限 | 2 | | 豆粕：元首互访消息，连粕或跟随美豆反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：市场情绪偏弱，等待抛储指引 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：区间震荡 | 7 | | 棉花：关注外部市场影响20260326 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：弱势震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：降重驱动将至，近端压力放大 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 03 月 26 日 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,510 | 涨跌幅 -1.39% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,526 | 涨跌幅 0.17% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,550 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term, supported by tight supply, but may be suppressed by increased wheat supply and faster grain circulation. In the long - term, import and domestic auction policies should be monitored due to the supply gap [4] - Starch prices are likely to oscillate strongly in the short - term with tight raw material supply, and downstream consumption rhythm will be the key factor in the long - term [4] - The international sugar market has a slightly stronger fundamental situation, and the domestic market is oscillating strongly. However, there is hedging pressure on the upper side of the futures market [6] - Cotton is suitable for long - term buying as demand is expected to improve, with low initial inventory and a possible decrease in Xinjiang's planting area [7] - For eggs, the process of capacity reduction is slowing down, but feed cost increases may compress profits. An inverse spread strategy is recommended [10] - The apple market trading is stable, with different situations in different regions. The sales atmosphere in the sales area is not strong [13] - Pig prices are falling slightly, with weak demand and ample supply. The market is in the process of finding the bottom, and the impact of capacity reduction on market sentiment should be monitored [13] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From March 19 - 25, 2026, corn prices in different regions showed minor fluctuations, and starch prices remained stable in some areas. Corn's basis and trade profits changed, and starch's processing profit improved from - 26 to - 3 [3] - **Analysis**: Short - term corn price is supported by tight supply but may be restricted by wheat supply and grain circulation. Starch price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term and is affected by downstream consumption in the long - term [4] Sugar - **Price Data**: From March 19 - 25, 2026, sugar's spot prices in different regions were mostly unchanged, and the basis and import profits had some fluctuations. The number of warehouse receipts remained stable at 16342 - 16862 [5] - **Analysis**: The international sugar market's fundamentals have slightly strengthened, and the domestic market is oscillating strongly with hedging pressure on the upper side [6] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From March 19 - 25, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 70. Other data such as import - related and spinning profits also changed [7] - **Analysis**: Low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With good demand prospects, cotton is suitable for long - term investment [7] Eggs - **Price Data**: From March 19 - 25, 2026, egg prices in some regions were stable, and the basis increased by 30. The prices of substitutes such as chickens and pigs changed slightly [9] - **Analysis**: The slowdown of chicken culling and increased chick - rearing indicate a slowdown in capacity reduction. Feed cost increases may affect farmers' culling decisions, and an inverse spread strategy is recommended [10] Apples - **Price Data**: From March 19 - 25, 2026, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900. The national inventory decreased by 5, and the basis for different months changed [12][13] - **Analysis**: The apple market trading is stable, with different trading situations in eastern and western regions. The sales atmosphere in the sales area is not strong [13] Pigs - **Price Data**: From March 19 - 25, 2026, pig prices in different regions decreased, and the basis decreased by 35 [13] - **Analysis**: Pig prices are falling due to weak demand and ample supply. The market is finding the bottom, and capacity reduction and its impact on market sentiment should be monitored [13]

Market Reactions to Oil Prices - The inverse correlation between Brent oil prices and the S&P 500 index has continued, with high oil prices persisting during the ongoing conflict [2] - Traders are betting on a potential asymmetry in oil prices, anticipating a gradual increase if the conflict continues, but a swift decline if a resolution occurs [3] Impact of Geopolitical Events - The market appears to be less concerned with the details of ongoing talks regarding de-escalation, indicating a level of optimism that the situation may not be as prolonged as previously feared [4][5] - The current geopolitical situation is unique due to the strategic importance of the Strait, which limits alternative options for oil supply [10] Market Dynamics and Trading Behavior - Short-term traders are influencing market movements, with day-to-day fluctuations driven by positioning rather than fundamental changes [7][8] - The market has shown resilience following social media posts from influential figures, indicating a psychological aspect to trading behavior [9] Economic Implications - The ongoing military crisis has significant implications for oil production and storage, affecting the broader economy, including food costs due to fertilizer supply issues [11][12] - The potential for dislocations in the market could extend beyond the immediate inverse relationship with Brent oil if a resolution is not reached [13]