2025年8月7日，新德里。 印度总理莫迪神情凝重，面对全球媒体的镜头，掷地有声地说道："即使付出再沉重的代价，印度也绝不妥协！" 这句话，如同引 爆全球贸易战的导火索，瞬间点燃了紧张的国际局势。 在这之前，美国总统特朗普签署了一份极具争议的行政命令，将印度输美商品的关税从25%直接翻倍至50%，目标直指印度每年高达540亿美元的对美出口 贸易额，意图扼住印度经济的咽喉。 面对美国的强势施压，莫迪政府的反击毫不示弱。在48小时内，印度果断暂停了价值36亿美元的波音P-8I反潜巡逻机军购订单，并宣布继续进口俄罗斯的折 扣原油，百万吨油轮正驶向印度港口。这场针锋相对的贸易对决，最终的决战时刻被锁定在8月27日——美国关税生效的最后期限。 特朗普的如意算盘 特朗普政府的算盘打得精明。提高关税，表面上的理由是"印度购买俄罗斯石油，变相支持战争"，实则隐藏着两份更为苛刻的要价清单：其一，强行推动美 国的转基因农产品进入印度市场，试图占据印度广阔的农业市场；其二，彻底切断印度与俄罗斯在能源领域的合作，阻止印度获得廉价能源。 然而，美国式的双重标准立刻遭到了印度外交部长苏杰生的公开驳斥。"欧洲国家购买俄罗斯石油没问题，美国 ...

● 本报记者 王舒嫄 凌激表示，天津峰会后，商务部将马上派出代表团，赴俄罗斯参加拟于9月6日召开的上合组织经贸部长 第二十四次会议。"这次会议最主要的议题就是研究落实成员国领导人在天津峰会达成的重要共识。当 前和今后一段时间，商务部的主要任务就是全力以赴落实好天津峰会达成的经贸成果，分领域来制定具 体举措和工作路线图。" 凌激介绍，可以从以下方面研究推进未来上合组织区域经济合作：一是要实现贸易投资一体化发展；二 是要深化产供链国际合作；三是要推动互联互通再上台阶；四是要进一步完善区域经济合作框架，包括 继续与更多成员国、观察员国、对话伙伴升级投资和贸易方面的协定，推动货物贸易、服务贸易和数字 贸易协同发展。 "中国与所有成员国都签署了投保协定，一年来我们与俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、塔吉克斯坦签署了升级版 投资协定，这也更有效地保护了相互投资，提高了投资准入水平。我们与白俄罗斯签署了服务贸易和投 资协定，为中国与上合组织成员国间投资提供了坚实的法律基础和保障。"凌激说。 贸易规模创历史新高。2024年，中国与其他成员国贸易额约5124亿美元，同比增长2.7%，是2018年中 方主办青岛峰会时的两倍。去年，中国自其他成 ...

农业农村部：预计生猪及猪肉价格有望逐步企稳 食糖方面，国内食糖进口增速较快，但由于食糖消费较旺，且工业库存减少，预计糖价平稳运行。巴西 进入食糖压榨高峰期，泰国、印度处于季风季节，降水充沛利于甘蔗生长，国际食糖供应趋于宽松，预 计后期糖价震荡偏弱运行。 猪肉方面，短期内我国猪肉市场供应充足，高温降雨天气对猪肉运输和消费造成不利影响，预计猪肉价 格偏弱运行。后期，随着生猪落后产能逐步淘汰，能繁母猪存栏适度减少，大体重生猪存、出栏数量减 少，生猪及猪肉价格有望逐步企稳。 玉米方面，储备玉米拍卖对市场情绪影响减弱，国内市场供需总体紧平衡，预计国内玉米价格稳中偏强 运行。全球玉米供应充足，增产预期较强，预计国际玉米价格偏弱运行。 大豆方面，新季大豆上市前国内大豆供应以国储和地储拍卖成交的陈豆为主，豆制品仍处于季节性消费 淡季，预计国产大豆价格继续保持稳定。美豆处于关键生长期，预计国际大豆价格将受天气炒作影响震 荡运行。 棉花方面，国内棉花商业库存持续下降，纺织品服装消费有所减弱，预计国内棉价维持震荡。全球棉花 供应宽松形势延续，需求端受美国关税政策对其国内及全球经济的拖累，预计国际棉价延续震荡走势。 油料方面，国内油 ...

8 月下旬的美印关系，活像一场没按剧本走的闹剧， 美国国土安全部 8月25日放话，27日起对印度商品加征 50% 关税；同一天，《法兰克福汇报》爆猛 料：特朗普近一个月四次给莫迪打电话，全被挂了。更巧的是，莫迪马上要启程访华，特朗普偏在这节骨眼上 "搞事情"。 于是特朗普在7月31日行政令，宣布对印度商品加征25%关税；一周之后的8月6日又补一刀，以印度"买俄油" 为由再加 25%关税。两道令叠一起，印度输美 商品直接飙升到50%关税。这哪是贸易制裁，是断印度出口企业的活路。 印度五分之一的出口靠美国，服装、宝石、汽车零部件这些吃饭的行当，首当其冲。更糟的是，这会儿正是印度出口企业冲圣诞节订单的关键期，一半年销 售额都靠这阵子，但是关税一生效，大部分订单都已经取消。 特朗普这番话一连踩了印度的两大雷点，首先，印度一直对空战中的损失讳莫如深，印巴停火后，印度全国上下大庆了10天，莫迪政府还派出宣讲团，到各 国宣扬印度的胜利，就是只字不提印军被击落了几架战机，国防参谋长辛格只敢说 "损失有，但原因比数量重要"，连具体数字都不敢报。 阵风战机残骸 其次，印度一直不肯承认特朗普推动了停火，坚称这是印巴双方谈判达成的共 ...

据曼谷邮报8月27日报道,分析师们说，尽管今年头7个月泰国出口增长强劲，达 到13%，但预计在美国对进口商品征收19%的关税之后，泰国的出口增长速度 将会放缓。泰国7月份的出口额达到286亿美元，同比增长11%，环比增长 0.2%，超出市场预期的9.6%增长。据Kasikorn Securities（KS）称，强劲的业 绩主要是由制造业推动的，特别是电子产品组件，如计算机和集成电路。不包 括黄金、石油相关产品和武器，泰国出口同比增长了16.6%，增速较6月份的 15.6%有所加快。今年迄今为止的累计增长率为14.4%。7月份工业出口同比增 长了14%，其中电子元件增长了35.2%，计算机（增长61%）和集成电路（增 长55%）的出口增长尤为显著。电器产品和橡胶制品也带动了增长，同比分别 增长了9.9%和9.7%。与此同时，农产品出口继续支撑整体发货量，冷冻水果、 加工家禽、宠物食品和蔗糖的强劲增长。相反，大米和橡胶出口连续第三个月 出现收缩。泰国大米在2024年9月印度解除出口禁令后面临激烈竞争，而菲律 宾暂停进口以保护国内价格。KS预测，在对中国出口增加的支持下，家禽业 将成为泰国货运的一个亮点。大华证券持 ...

火力全开！"媒 体+"百千万工 程，云浮市县已 全覆盖_南方+_ 南方plus 近日，云浮市正 式印发《云浮 市"媒体+"赋 能"百千万工 程"农产品市场 体系建设行动方 案（2025-2027 年）》（以下简 称《行动方 案》）。 《行动方案》深 入落实省 委"1310"具体部 署及市 委"365"竞标争 先体系要求，围 绕"农业增效 益、农村增活 力、农民增收 入"，积极发 展"媒体+"新业 态，推动实现促 进城乡消费、农 旅发展、融湾出 海、农民增收、 媒体转型五大目 标。《行动方 案》提出了8大 重点任务以及3 项具体保障措 施，重点从市 场、产业、文 化、农旅、品 牌、科技、人 才、资源八个方 面着力，充分发 挥媒体在市场开 拓、资源整合、 品牌塑造与舆论 引导方面的优 势，全面助 力"百千万工 程"落地见效， 为云浮乡村全面 振兴注入新动 力。 巧用"媒体+"拓 宽产销渠道 助力农产品"出 山向海" 创新"媒体+市 场"联动开展农 产品宣传推介， 以云城番薯季、 云安花生文化活 动、罗定稻米文 化系列活动、新 兴香荔产业发展 大会、郁南无核 黄皮推介会等特 色节庆为载体， 通过"请进来体 验"和" ...

中韩政商代表吉林对话：冀加深经贸合作 此次交流会由吉林省商务厅与中韩(长春)国际合作示范区共同主办。当天，中韩(长春)国际合作示范区 分别与中国—上海合作组织地方经贸合作示范区、韩中城市友好协会、韩中经济文化教育协会签署合作 协议，两国企业还在现场围绕装备制造、大健康等产业进行了推介交流。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 李龙熙表示，吉林省期待与韩国在高端制造与智能制造、新能源与新材料、现代农业、冰雪旅游、医药 医美等领域继续携手共进，在友好城市互访、商协会交流等方面加强民间交往。 中国(吉林)—韩国经贸交流会上，举行了签约活动。高龙安 摄 韩国贸易协会北京代表处首席代表沈允燮表示，当前中国正加大人工智能产业的研发力度，韩国也将人 工智能作为数字产业发展的核心引擎，积极引进人才。韩中两国在该领域虽有竞争，但如能加深合作， 必将取得丰硕成果。 沈允燮呼吁两国共同推动高校、科研机构等开展更多合作研究，由企业推进商业化研发和投资，两国政 府部门通过试点项目、制度性支持等方式发挥桥梁作用。 中韩(长春)国际合作示范区党工委副书记、管委会主任汤大鹏介绍，该示范区已与韩国仁川经济自由 区、大邱庆北经济自由区等建立合作伙伴关系，设 ...

据知情人士透露，欧盟将寻求在本周末前快速推进立法，以取消对所有美国工业品的关税，这是美国总 统特朗普提出的一项要求，作为美国降低对该集团汽车出口关税的前提。 如果欧盟在本月底前提出该立法，那么对欧洲汽车征收的15%关税税率将追溯至8月1日生效。汽车是该 集团对美国最重要的出口商品之一，仅德国在2024年就向美国出口了价值349亿美元的新车和零部件。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 负责为欧盟处理贸易事务的欧盟委员会，还将对某些海产品和农产品给予优惠关税税率。 音频由扣子空间生成 欧盟已承认，与特朗普达成的这项贸易安排有利于美国，但该协议对于为企业提供稳定性和确定性是必 要的。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩此前曾将其描述为"虽不完美但成效显著"。 此举发生之际，特朗普已威胁要对那些对美国网络服务征税的国家征收关税和其他惩罚，但他没有具体 说明他将针对哪些国家，以及欧盟是否会牵涉其中。 长期以来，特朗普一直猛烈抨击欧盟对包括谷歌母公司Alphabet和苹果公司在内的美国科技巨头进行的 技术和反垄断监管。 目前，欧盟的汽车和汽车零部件对美出口面临27.5%的关税。尽管美国和欧盟已达成一项贸易协议，将 使美国对几乎所有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Pork, Bitumen (bullish on short - term rebound), Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), Combustion Fatigue [1] - **Bearish**: Asphalt, Short - fiber, Hemp, Urea (limited upside), PE (price oscillates weakly), Container Shipping to Europe [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Treasury Bonds, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, TV4E, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coke, Coal Coke, Cotton, Sugar, New - season Corn, New - season Soybeans, Pulp, Logs, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, PVC, Spot Goods [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market liquidity is still abundant, with A - share trading volume exceeding 2 trillion, and the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the previous high of "924". Under internal and external favorable factors, market sentiment is good, and stock index futures may continue to run strongly [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - The dovish stance of the Fed Chairman boosts the September interest - rate cut expectation, which is beneficial to precious metals and copper prices in the short term [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal sector, most varieties are affected by macro - sentiment and their own fundamentals, showing different trends such as oscillation and rebound [1]. - In the black metal sector, most varieties are in an oscillating state due to neutral valuation, unclear industrial drive, and warm macro - drive [1]. - In the agricultural product sector, different varieties are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, seasonal factors, and policy, showing different trends [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products are affected by factors such as production capacity, supply - demand relationship, and macro - policy, with different investment ratings [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: May continue to run strongly due to abundant liquidity and good market sentiment [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillate as the asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks [1] - **Gold and Silver**: Bullish as the Fed Chairman's dovish stance boosts the September interest - rate cut expectation [1] - **Copper**: Bullish as the Fed Chairman's dovish stance boosts the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [1] - **Aluminum**: Oscillates as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation rises, but domestic downstream demand is under pressure in the off - season [1] - **Alumina**: Consider far - month long - position layout opportunities as production and inventory increase, but bauxite shipments decline in the rainy season in Guinea [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Zinc**: Rebounds due to improved macro - sentiment, but the upside space is limited due to large domestic fundamental pressure [1] - **Nickel**: Oscillates and rebounds following the macro - situation, with attention paid to supply and macro - changes. Long - term excess of primary nickel still suppresses prices [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillates and rebounds in the short term, affected by the macro - situation. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills and short - term trading opportunities [1] - **Tin**: The tin price is boosted by improved macro - sentiment, with short - term weak supply and demand. Pay attention to the seasonal maintenance of Yunnan smelters [1] Energy and Chemicals - **TV4E**: Oscillates due to supply resumption in the southwest and northwest, large hedging pressure, and strong market sentiment [1] - **Polysilicon**: Oscillates with long - term production - capacity reduction expectation, low terminal installation willingness, and considerable profits [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Oscillates due to frequent resource - end disturbances and limited subsequent restocking space after large short - term restocking by downstream [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: Oscillate as the valuation returns to neutral, the industrial drive is unclear, and the macro - drive is warm [1] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillates as the near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month has upward opportunities [1] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Oscillate, following the black - metal sector in the short term with long - term anti - involution [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Oscillate weakly as the reality is weak, and the market focuses on fundamentals [1] - **Coke and Coal Coke**: Oscillate weakly as the steel inventory accumulates faster than seasonally, and the market suppresses supply by lowering steel prices [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: Have different price trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationship, production reduction, and policy [1] - **Cotton**: Increases in the short term, with the near - month squeeze - out logic dominant. Pay attention to the time window and quota release [1] - **Sugar**: Runs strongly but with limited upside. Pay attention to the 5600 - 6000 range [1] - **New - season Corn and New - season Soybeans**: Oscillate at low levels or due to factors such as harvest pressure and import - cost support [1] - **Pulp**: Consider the 11 - 1 reverse spread as the 11 - contract is under pressure from old warehouse receipts [1] - **Logs**: Oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan/m³ as the valuation is reasonable [1] - **Pork**: Bullish as the near - month contract is weak, and there are peak - season expectations for 11 and 01 contracts [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: May rebound in the short term as the previous pessimistic expectation is corrected, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and there is a short - term rebound demand [1] - **Asphalt**: Bearish as the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified [1] - **Natural Rubber and BR Rubber**: Have different trends due to factors such as rainfall in domestic producing areas, inventory, and market sentiment [1] - **PTA and Ethylene Glycol**: Have different supply - demand situations and price trends [1] - **Short - fiber and Hemp**: Bearish due to factors such as increased factory maintenance and weakening market trading [1] - **Urea**: Oscillates with limited upside due to weak export sentiment and insufficient domestic demand, but with cost - end support [1] - **PE, PP, and PVC**: Oscillate due to factors such as maintenance, orders, and macro - sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Runs strongly due to factors such as capacity reduction expectations, tariff extensions, and supply - demand changes [1] Other - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The freight rate is expected to decline as the September supply exceeds the same - period level, and the high - price quotes are expected to converge [1]

Group 1 - The EU aims to legislate the removal of tariffs on US industrial goods in exchange for the US reducing tariffs on automobile imports [1][2] - The current tariff on EU automobile exports to the US is 27.5%, significantly impacting EU exports, particularly from Germany, which exported $34.9 billion worth of cars and parts to the US in 2024 [1] - The agreement would lower US tariffs on nearly all European goods to 15%, but the reduction on automobiles is contingent upon the EU's legislative action to remove tariffs on US industrial products [1] Group 2 - To expedite the legislative process, the EU Commission will bypass the standard impact assessment procedure, aiming for a swift agreement to alleviate high tariffs on EU automobiles [2]