Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.24% to close at 3923.29 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25% to 13726.19 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 0.68% to 3273.36 points [1][10] - Overall, 2865 stocks rose and 2461 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 19159 billion yuan, an increase of 626 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top gainers included non-ferrous metals (up 1.84%), building materials (up 1.67%), telecommunications (up 1.31%), and national defense and military industry (up 1.25%). The sectors that experienced declines were utilities (down 2.97%), household appliances (down 1.49%), and electric equipment (down 1.25%) [1][10] Concept Sector Performance - The leading concept sectors today included aluminum industry, cross-strait integration, fiberglass, industrial metals selection, optical communication, commercial aerospace, semiconductor equipment, gold and jewelry, anti-tariff, cement manufacturing selection, SPD, human resources, satellite internet, large aircraft, and antibiotics [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a strengthening basis. The raw material side of the fundamentals shows that the spot index of copper concentrate TC continues to hit new lows, and the expectation of tightening global copper mine supply is gradually strengthening, providing a relatively solid cost support for copper prices. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of copper smelters is gradually recovering, but the pressure of global raw material supply and the rapid decline of domestic copper concentrate port inventories in the first quarter may limit the growth rate of domestic production to some extent. On the demand side, as the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" deepens and copper prices decline due to geopolitical conflicts, the production enthusiasm of domestic downstream copper processing enterprises is boosted, and they replenish inventory at low prices. In terms of inventory, the inflection point of social inventory depletion is confirmed, and industry demand is gradually improving. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and boosted demand. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are converging. The suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 95,760 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,228 US dollars/ton, up 87 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 30 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 185,270 lots, down 2,125 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 55,138 lots, up 900 lots; the LME copper inventory is 360,250 tons, up 425 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 359,135 tons, down 51,986 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 62,675 tons, up 9,975 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 230,971 tons, down 2,856 tons; the COMEX copper inventory is 588,919 short tons, down 796 short tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper is 95,195 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 95,315 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan. The CIF Shanghai (pyrometallurgical, ER) price for bonded warehouses is 68.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 66 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 565 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 70.86 US dollars/ton, down 0.65 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 231.03 million tons, up 231.03 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 68.85 US dollars per thousand tons, down 1.53 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 85,590 yuan per metal ton, down 330 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 86,290 yuan per metal ton, down 330 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 1,100 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the processing fee for blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, up 9.00 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 320,000 tons, down 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 63,090 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,250 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 78,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.90 million tons, up 0.30 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 837.53 billion yuan, up 79.84 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 9,612.11 billion yuan, down 11.10 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.50 thousand pieces, up 415,345.50 thousand pieces [2]. Industry News - US President Trump claims that the US has control of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran is "extremely" eager to reach an agreement. US Vice - President Vance says the US has no intention of staying in Iran and will withdraw soon after handling current affairs. Vance believes the US has achieved all military goals, and the military operation has not ended because President Trump wants to ensure Iran completely loses the ability to threaten the US [2]. - According to Cui Dongshu of the Passenger Car Association, the global automobile sales volume in 2025 was 96.89 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The world automobile sales volume in February 2026 reached 6.74 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. The world automobile sales volume from January to February 2026 reached 13.96 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Due to the lower - than - expected growth rate of the Chinese auto market, the growth of the world auto market sales volume slowed down significantly from January to February 2026. The Chinese auto market has generally performed well in recent years, and its share has continued to increase. From 2020 to 2023, China's share in the world market increased to 33.8%, in 2024 it reached 34.2%, in 2025 it reached 35.4%, and in 2026 it reached 29.7%, a significant decline compared with 2025. The overseas environment for self - owned brands going global is good, with many countries in a period of low penetration rate and large market space. The speed determines the effect. From January to February 2026, the global automobile sales volume increased by 0.1%, among which the Chinese automobile sales volume decreased by 9%, the Indian automobile market sales volume increased by 11%, the Thai automobile market increased by 64%, the Russian market sales volume decreased by 7%, and some South American markets performed well. The potential of Chinese car companies in many other underdeveloped small countries is still huge [2]. - The China Association for Quality and Safety Promotion of Consumer Goods launched the "2026 Series of Actions to Improve the Quality and Safety of Online - sold Products", aiming to guide the industry out of "involution - style" competition and better protect the quality of online - sold products and the legitimate rights and interests of consumers. After selection, a total of 11 major categories and 41 types of products were determined for monitoring, including household appliances, electronic appliances, electric bicycles, lithium batteries, etc. [2]. - The European Federation for Transport and Environment released a report stating that affected by the military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the fuel cost of the global shipping industry has risen significantly, which not only increases the industry's operating pressure but also provides an opportunity to accelerate energy transformation. The report shows that since February 28, the cumulative additional fuel cost of the global shipping industry has exceeded 4.6 billion euros [2].

Core Conclusions - Certain resource commodities have already acquired strategic attributes, with resource-rich countries seeking pricing power in the industrial chain and a tendency towards resource nationalism, while consuming countries strengthen strategic reserves of key resources and enhance supply chain security [1][2] - The scarcity of strategic resource reserves, along with the high concentration of production and processing stages, forms the basis for industrial and national defense security, and is crucial for energy transition and technological development [1][3] - The market for strategic resources is driven not only by short-term shocks but also by long-term supply-demand dynamics that support price increases, with mid-term trends expected to continue upward [1][4] Group 1: Strategic Resource Attributes - Since 2025, prices of commodities such as copper, aluminum, lithium, and cobalt have significantly increased, driven by supply-demand factors and the growing concept of national security, which has intensified competition and geopolitical struggles over strategic minerals [2][13] - Resource-rich countries are changing their policy directions, increasingly adopting resource nationalism through export controls, tax increases, and nationalization to gain more economic benefits and move up the value chain [2][15] - Major consuming countries like the US, EU, and Japan are incorporating resource security into their national and economic security frameworks, establishing strategic reserves and creating new supply chain systems through alliances [2][18] Group 2: Definition of Strategic Resources - Strategic resources are defined by their scarcity, with reserves unevenly distributed globally and concentrated in a few countries, leading to their significant role in great power competition [3][23] - The production and processing stages of strategic resources exhibit high concentration, with countries like China dominating the processing of many strategic resources, thus influencing global resource governance [3][25] Group 3: Supply-Demand Dynamics and Price Trends - The current market for strategic resources has seen a "HALO trading" trend, with significant excess returns in heavy asset sectors represented by strategic resources, despite recent market volatility [4][39] - Long-term capital expenditure shortages, rising resource nationalism, and operational risks are constraining the supply of strategic resources, while the demand for these resources is being driven by trends in AI and renewable energy [4][39][45] - The demand for strategic resources is expected to grow due to the expansion of AI infrastructure and the transition to green energy, with significant increases in demand for copper, lithium, and cobalt anticipated [4][45][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter, alumina is expected to be weak first and then stable. In April, the concentrated arrival of imported alumina and the launch of new production capacity in Guangxi will put pressure on alumina. From May onwards, the tightening of Guinea's ore - end policies will gradually take effect. After the industry's profits turn negative, the new production will slow down comprehensively, and the market is expected to stop falling. There is a risk of an over - fall rebound due to unexpected production cuts caused by domestic losses. - Electrolytic aluminum is expected to decline first and then rise. In early April, the geopolitical impact in the Middle East is dominant, and demand has not fully recovered. With the different inventory trends at home and abroad, the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets cannot be quickly reversed. In late April, the peak - season effect will gradually increase, and the inflection point of domestic inventory reduction will appear. Domestic funds are ready, and it is time for domestic prices to follow the upward trend. After May, with domestic consumption - stimulating policies and the expectation of overseas interest rate cuts, prices are more likely to rise than fall. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation, the actual realization of downstream demand, and the dynamics of the Fed's interest rate cuts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - In the first quarter, the alumina futures fluctuated strongly. As of March 27, the main contract closed at 3041 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 8.9%. The Shanghai aluminum futures also fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 24020 yuan/ton and an overall increase of 7.2%. The aluminum alloy futures also showed a strong upward trend, with the main contract closing at 22810 yuan/ton and an overall increase of 6.64% [6][8][10]. - In the first quarter, the spot discount of alumina widened from 59 yuan/ton to 286 yuan/ton. The spot discount of electrolytic aluminum narrowed from 210 yuan/ton to 160 yuan/ton, and the near - far month spread narrowed from 80 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Supply - **Alumina**: In the first quarter, the domestic production of metallurgical - grade alumina was 21.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. The operating capacity decreased to 86.24 million tons, and the operating rate decreased to 78.2%. Domestically, the supply of domestic ore has slightly improved, and the import of ore has continued to increase. New production capacity is about to be launched in Guangxi, while production in Shanxi and Guizhou has decreased, and manufacturers in Henan have resumed production after maintenance. Abroad, due to the continuous conflict in the Middle East, Iran has made preventive production cuts, Qatar Aluminum has shut down 40% of its production, and Bahrain Aluminum has shut down three production lines [4][6]. - **Electrolytic aluminum**: In the first quarter, the domestic production of electrolytic aluminum was 11.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The operating capacity increased to 44.3 million tons, the operating rate increased to 96.6%, and the aluminum - water ratio decreased to 64.4%. Some overseas aluminum plants have production changes. For example, the 580,000 - ton capacity of the Mozambique aluminum plant has been shut down due to the failure to reach an agreement on the power contract, while the 50,000 - ton idle capacity of the Mt. Holly aluminum plant is expected to resume production in April and reach full production by the end of the second quarter; the Icelandic aluminum plant will resume production at the end of April and reach full production by the end of July. Domestic and Indonesian projects are ramping up production, and the daily output of electrolytic aluminum has continued to increase at a high level [4][6]. 3.3 Demand - In the first quarter, the orders in March were diluted by the Spring Festival holiday. The overall start - up was stable, but there were significant structural differences. The average start - up rate in the first quarter was 59.69%, a 2.11% decrease from the previous quarter and a 0.83% increase year - on - year. Among them, the production of plates, strips, and foils was relatively weak compared with the same period last year, while the start - up of cables increased significantly, providing support. The average value of the downstream comprehensive processing PMI from January to February was 40.8, a decrease of 6.34 from the previous quarter and a decrease of 11.7 year - on - year. It is expected that there will be room for growth in April. The processing fees of aluminum rods have increased across the board by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, while the processing fees of aluminum bars have increased in Wuxi and Baotou by 90 - 130 yuan/ton and decreased in Xinjiang, Henan, Linyi, and Guangdong by 20 - 170 yuan/ton [4][6]. 3.4 Inventory - **Exchange inventory**: In the first quarter, the alumina inventory in the exchange increased by 162,000 tons to 284,000 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory increased by 324,000 tons to 454,600 tons; the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 88,700 tons to 423,000 tons. - **Social inventory**: In the first quarter, the alumina social inventory increased by 85,000 tons to 235,000 tons; the aluminum ingot inventory increased by 689,000 tons to 1.349 million tons; the aluminum bar inventory increased by 202,500 tons to 341,500 tons [4][7]. 3.5 Capacity - **Domestic alumina capacity**: There are large increments in new projects, increasing the over - supply pressure. The total planned capacity of new domestic alumina projects is 41.2 million tons, with 14.1 million tons put into production in 2025, 4.6 million tons in 2026, and 14.3 million tons in 2027 and beyond [67]. - **Overseas alumina capacity**: The new planned capacity is limited, and all are supporting capacities for electrolytic aluminum. The total planned capacity of new overseas alumina projects is 14.4 million tons, with 2.6 million tons put into production in 2025, 1.4 million tons in 2026, and 10.4 million tons in 2027 and beyond [68][69]. - **Domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity**: The operating capacity remains stable at a high level, mainly through the optimization and replacement of existing capacities and the transfer of capacity indicators between regions. The total planned capacity of new domestic electrolytic aluminum projects is 5.77 million tons, with 1.53 million tons put into production in 2025 and 1.11 million tons in 2026 [70]. - **Overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity**: There are regional differences and a lag in the rhythm. The new capacity is concentrated in Southeast Asia and other regions. The total new capacity expected to be put into production in 2026 is 1.9 million tons [71]. 3.6 Global Supply - Demand - Overseas alumina has changed from surplus to shortage. From January to February, the production of overseas alumina and primary aluminum was 9.71 million tons and 4.8 million tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% and 0.4% [91]. - It is expected that in the second quarter, the surplus pattern of alumina will intensify; after the marginal reduction of electrolytic aluminum inventory, the supply - demand pattern will improve [92][93].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The strong dollar restricts the price rebound of copper [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 95,930 with a daily increase of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 95,490 with a decrease of 0.46%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 12,141 with a daily increase of 0.17% [1] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 207,262, a decrease of 6,030 compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 534,254, a decrease of 9,313. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 15,444, a decrease of 3,008, and the open interest was 295,000, a decrease of 991 [1] - The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 237,076, a decrease of 9,365. The inventory of LME Copper was 360,250, an increase of 425. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Copper was 18.76%, an increase of 1.35% [1] - Various copper price spreads and related data showed different changes compared with the previous day, such as the spot - to - futures near - month spread changing from - 100 to - 95 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News Macro News - Iran reported attacks on steel mills and nuclear facilities, drone attacks on Israel's largest transportation center, and warned of counter - measures against US ground operations. It also considered withdrawing from the Nuclear Non - Proliferation Treaty [1][3] - The US Secretary of State said the Iran conflict would last 2 - 4 weeks, and no ground troops were needed to achieve the goals. The US President's special envoy expected to talk with Iran this week [1][3] - Iran claimed to have closed the Strait of Hormuz and turned back three container ships. Saudi Arabia bypassed the Strait, and oil exports from Yanbu Port soared to a record high [1][3] Industry News - Zambia aims to more than triple copper production to 3 million tons by 2031 by attracting global investors [3] - Rio Tinto suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine in Utah, USA, after a worker died on March 12 [3] - China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production from January to February was 2.473 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%. China's February 2026 scrap copper imports were 167,937.84 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.72% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.13% [3] - Peru's January copper production was 226,256 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3% [3] - Codelco expects the supply disruption caused by the Middle East conflict to increase its production cost by about 5% [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2] for the value indicating different levels from most bearish (-2) to most bullish (2) [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights that precious metals are strengthening in the long term despite market volatility, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and high oil prices, which are influencing market expectations for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [5] - Copper prices are under pressure due to recession expectations linked to rising oil prices, although there is potential for a rebound if prices drop below 90,000 CNY/ton [6] - Aluminum prices are expected to have long-term upward potential, supported by supply disruptions from geopolitical conflicts and increasing demand as domestic inventories begin to decline [7] - Lithium prices have surged due to energy security concerns, with expectations of strong demand from the electric vehicle sector and storage orders [9] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is 8687.44, with a 52-week high of 11180.33 and a low of 4295.55 [2] Price Movements - LME copper decreased by 0.65%, while aluminum increased by 1.83% this week [21] - Lithium prices rose by 7.85% [22] Inventory Changes - Global visible copper inventory decreased by 22,813 tons, aluminum by 1,963 tons, zinc by 6,638 tons, lead by 6,561 tons, tin by 1,659 tons, and nickel by 1,781 tons [30][32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Dongfang Tantalum, Xinjing Road, Xiyu Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, Zhongkuang Resources, Shengda Resources, Chifeng Gold, Zijin Gold International, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economic and political situation is complex, with the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran having a significant impact on the energy market, leading to increased fuel costs in the shipping industry and potential disruptions to the supply chain [10][16]. - The Chinese economy shows a mixed picture, with some positive signs in industrial profits but also challenges in areas such as manufacturing PMI and consumer spending [2][19]. - The financial market is experiencing volatility, with bond ETFs becoming a safe - haven due to rising risk aversion, and the stock and bond markets being affected by energy price increases and inflation expectations [21][22]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter and the same period last year [1]. - The manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 49.0%, down from the previous month and the same period last year, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1]. - The non - manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 49.5%, remaining the same as the previous month but lower than the same period last year [1]. - Social financing in February 2026 was 2385.5 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous month but higher than the same period last year [1]. - M0, M1, and M2 growth rates in February 2026 were 14.1%, 5.9%, and 9.0% respectively, showing an upward trend compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - New RMB loans in February 2026 were 900 billion yuan, higher than the previous month but lower than the same period last year [1]. - CPI in February 2026 was 1.3% year - on - year, up from the previous month and a significant improvement from the same period last year [1]. - PPI in February 2026 was - 0.9% year - on - year, an improvement from the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - Fixed - asset investment in the first two months of 2026 increased by 1.8% year - on - year, a significant improvement from the previous year [1]. - Retail sales of consumer goods in the first two months of 2026 increased by 2.8% year - on - year, lower than the previous year [1]. - Exports in February 2026 increased by 39.6% year - on - year, a significant improvement from the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - Imports in February 2026 increased by 13.8% year - on - year, also showing an upward trend [1]. Commodity Investment Comprehensive - From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year - on - year, and the growth rate of operating income improved significantly [2]. - China's Ministry of Commerce launched two trade barrier investigations against the US in response to the latter's 301 investigations [2]. - From April 22, QFIIs and RQFIIs can trade 20 - rubber and international copper option contracts [3]. - On March 27, 31 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 38 had negative basis [3]. - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continues, with Iran increasing its attacks on the US and Israel, and the US claiming to control the Strait of Hormuz [3][4]. - The Fed Vice - Chair expects the US economy to expand at about 2% or slightly faster in 2026, with stable unemployment [4]. Metals - Since late March, international gold prices have experienced a "historic" shock, and after a sharp decline, there is a mixed reaction in the market [5]. - Since March, the domestic non - ferrous futures sector has shown a downward trend, especially copper futures, which have fallen by more than 8% this month [5]. - Two large aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE were attacked by Iran, which may impact the market [6][7]. Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - A new rare earth - niobate mineral, Xianhuaite - (La), was discovered in the Bayan Obo deposit, which is of great value for the study of the deposit's formation [8]. - Due to the obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, some Asian countries are increasing coal production and use [9]. - Indonesia has no plan to levy windfall taxes on coal and nickel exports on April 1 [9]. - Bauxite shipments increased by 16% year - on - year, but experts are cautious about the market outlook [9]. Energy and Chemicals - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to a significant increase in the fuel cost of the global shipping industry, and the industry is facing pressure but also has an opportunity for energy transformation [10]. - Russia will ban gasoline exports from April 1 to July 31 to stabilize prices and ensure domestic supply [10]. - India has imposed windfall taxes on diesel and aviation turbine fuel exports [10]. - Saudi Arabia's key oil pipeline is operating at full capacity, but the Red Sea may become a new conflict front [11]. - The US allows Cuba to receive a large - scale oil shipment from Russia, breaking the oil blockade [11]. Agricultural Products - On March 29, the national pig market showed a widespread upward trend, but the increase was regional and phased [12]. - In the third week of March, the average price of pigs in 30 monitored provinces decreased by 28% year - on - year, reaching a new low since June 2018 [13]. - The State Council's Food Safety Office and the State Administration for Market Regulation have taken measures to address food safety issues exposed by the "3.15" Gala [13]. - China will implement zero - tariff measures for all African diplomatic countries starting from May 1, 2026 [13]. Financial News Open Market - This week, 474.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. Last week, the central bank conducted 474.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 231.9 billion yuan. Additionally, 450 billion yuan of MLF matured last week, and the central bank conducted 500 billion yuan of MLF operations [14]. - On March 27, the central bank conducted 146.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 125.7 billion yuan [14]. Key News - The US - Israel - Iran conflict continues, with the US claiming to control the Strait of Hormuz and Iran increasing its counter - attacks [16]. - The US is preparing for a ground operation in Iran, and there are large - scale protests against the Trump administration in the US [17]. - This week, there are many important events in the global market, including economic data releases, policy changes, and corporate earnings announcements [18]. - The State Council emphasizes the development of the service industry and the construction of a hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system [19]. - From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased significantly, especially in the non - ferrous, chemical, and semiconductor industries [19]. - The People's Bank of China requires the improvement of the financial risk prevention and resolution system [20]. - China's foreign exchange market shows strong resilience, and the RMB exchange rate remains stable [20]. - China and the EU agree to set up a trade and investment working group and continue dialogue on export control [20]. - China's Ministry of Commerce launches two trade barrier investigations against the US [21]. - Some banks in China have lowered deposit interest rates, and bond ETFs have become a safe - haven for investors [21]. - Energy price increases have led to stagflation expectations, hitting the stock, bond, and gold markets, and investors are flocking to cash [22]. - Some companies have bond - related events, such as default and regulatory measures [22]. - Some companies' credit ratings have changed [23]. Bond Market - The inter - bank bond market is slightly bullish, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds declining, but the 30 - year treasury bond futures contract closed down [24]. - The exchange - traded bond market has mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling [24]. - The convertible bond index rose, with some bonds having significant gains and losses [25]. - Most money market interest rates declined, and Shibor short - term varieties also decreased [25][26]. - The winning bid rate of the Import - Export Bank's 3 - year fixed - rate bond was 1.5045% [26]. - European bond yields rose, while US bond yields showed mixed trends [26][27]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the US dollar index rose, with non - US currencies showing mixed performance [28]. Research Report Highlights - Citic Securities suggests focusing on countries with resource, geographical, and manufacturing advantages, and recommends sticking to China's advantageous manufacturing industries [29][30]. - Citic Securities believes that the long - term demand for bank self - operated funds in exchange - traded corporate bonds and ABS products is unlikely to change fundamentally [30]. - Citic Securities expects the Strait of Hormuz's passing capacity to partially recover, which may drive up oil shipping prices and increase the profits of oil shipping companies in 2026 [30]. - Tianfeng Fixed - Income believes that there is no need to overly worry about large banks selling ultra - long - term bonds in March, and their buying power may increase in April [30]. - Xingzheng Fixed - Income believes that the credit bond curve showed a bull - steep trend in March, and the end - of - quarter adjustment may be a good investment opportunity [30]. Stock Market - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will deepen the comprehensive reform of capital market investment and financing, focusing on serving new - quality productivity, building a "long - term investment" ecosystem, and cultivating Chinese - characteristic financial culture [33]. Today's Reminders - On March 30, 263 bonds will be listed, 60 bonds will be issued, 113 bonds will be paid, and 653 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [31][32].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical tensions ease [2] - Silver: Drops from the oscillation platform [2] - Copper: A strong dollar limits price rebounds [2] - Zinc: Runs strongly [2] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2] - Tin: Oscillates strongly [2] - Aluminum: Focus on supply disruptions [2] - Alumina: Ranges in an oscillatory manner [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2] - Platinum: Overall weak [2] - Palladium: Oscillates at a low level [2] - Nickel: The marginal increase in inventory slows down, and the mining end supports the upward shift of pyrometallurgical costs [2] - Stainless steel: The price oscillates due to the game between demand and cost [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 yesterday was 940.00, with a daily decline of 9.55%, and the night - session closing price was 980.00, with a decline of 1.30%. The trading volume increased by 43,191 compared with the previous day, and the positions decreased by 6,229 [4]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Gold inventory decreased by 99 kg compared with the previous day [4]. - **News**: The Pentagon is planning a "weeks - long ground operation", and the "Tripoli" amphibious assault ship and 3,500 soldiers arrived in the Middle East. The US consumer inflation expectation has the largest increase in nearly a year [4][7]. Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 yesterday was 15,498, with a daily decline of 12.30%, and the night - session closing price was 17,246.00, with an increase of 3.47%. The trading volume decreased by 2,980 compared with the previous day, and the positions decreased by 3,257 [4]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Silver inventory increased by 2,054 kg compared with the previous day [4]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Copper contract yesterday was 95,930, with a daily increase of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 95,490, with a decline of 0.46%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index decreased by 6,030, and the positions decreased by 9,313 [8]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 9,365 tons compared with the previous day, and the LME Copper inventory increased by 425 tons [8]. - **News**: Iran's steel mills and nuclear facilities were attacked, and drones attacked Israel's largest transportation center. The US Secretary of State said the Iran war would last 2 - 4 weeks. Zambia aims to triple copper production by 2031. Rio Tinto suspended its Kennecott copper mine in Utah [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Zinc contract was 23,380, with a daily increase of 1.34%. The trading volume increased by 35,859, and the positions decreased by 381 [11]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Zinc futures inventory decreased by 1,632 tons, and the LME Zinc inventory decreased by 275 tons [11]. - **News**: Iran's foreign ministry spokesman said the US proposal was extreme and unreasonable. Shanghai's second - hand housing market had a strong "spring market" [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Lead contract was 16,555, with a daily increase of 0.58%. The trading volume decreased by 415, and the positions decreased by 8,975 [14]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 404 tons, and the LME Lead inventory decreased by 25 tons [14]. - **News**: Iran's steel mills and nuclear facilities were attacked, and the US - Iran conflict continued [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Tin contract was 362,460, with a daily increase of 2.82%, and the night - session closing price was 363,920, with an increase of 2.29%. The trading volume increased by 104,247, and the positions increased by 21,954 [18]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 353 tons [18]. - **News**: Houthi rebels in Yemen "joined the war", and two major aluminum giants in the Middle East were attacked [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Aluminum contract was 23,935, with an increase of 210 compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Alumina contract was 345,552, and the positions decreased by 14,195. The closing price of the main Aluminum Alloy contract was 22,960, with an increase of 140 [21]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 137.10 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 42.09 million tons [21]. - **News**: UAE's EGA's core smelter was damaged in the Middle East conflict, and the US was preparing for a ground operation in Iran [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Platinum Futures 2606 was 493.05, with an increase of 1.16%. The closing price of Palladium Futures 2606 was 358.20, with an increase of 1.37% [25]. - **Inventory**: The NYMEX Platinum inventory decreased by 4,527 ounces, and the NYMEX Palladium inventory remained unchanged [25]. - **News**: The Houthi rebels in Yemen attacked Israel, and the Israeli military said it was close to completing the attack on about 90% of Iran's key military industrial facilities [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Nickel contract was 137,100, with an increase of 1,240 compared with the previous trading day. The closing price of the main Stainless Steel contract was 14,390, with no change [31]. - **Inventory**: On March 27, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,690 tons to 86,077 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,938 tons to 281,574 tons [37]. - **News**: Indonesia plans to adjust the nickel ore benchmark price, and Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala [31][32].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation has eased for gold, and silver has fallen off the oscillation platform. The price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread of precious metals have all shown certain changes, along with some significant macro and industry news [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Fundamental Data - **Price**: Most gold prices showed a decline, with沪金2602 down 9.55% to 940.00 and Comex黄金2602 down 1.82% to 4410.40. Most silver prices had a mixed trend, with沪银2602 down 12.30% to 15498 but Comex白银2602 up 2.23% to 69.320 [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of沪金2602 increased by 43,191 to 386,422, and that of Comex黄金2602 increased by 171,659 to 392,432. The trading volume of沪银2602 decreased by 2,980 to 136,668, while that of Comex白银2602 increased by 37,853 to 86,911 [1]. - **Position**: The position of沪金2602 decreased by 6,229 to 62,764, and that of Comex黄金2602 decreased by 11,063 to 149,406. The position of沪银2602 decreased by 3,257 to 55,828, and that of Comex白银2602 remained unchanged at 72,735 [1]. - **ETF Position**: The SPDR黄金ETF position decreased by 4 to 1,052.70, and the SLV白银ETF position (the day before yesterday) increased by 265 to 15,513.67 [1]. - **Inventory**: The沪金 inventory decreased by 99 to 106,746 kilograms, and the Comex黄金 inventory (the day before yesterday) remained unchanged at 32,054,275 troy ounces. The沪银 inventory increased by 2054 to 364,549 kilograms, and the Comex白银 inventory (the day before yesterday) decreased by 1,989,464 to 332,695,255 troy ounces [1]. - **Spread**: The spread between gold T+D and AU2602 remained unchanged at -19.01. The spread between沪金2602 and 2606 contracts was not available. The cost of the long - December and short - June inter - period arbitrage for gold decreased by 0.87 to 4.77. The spread between silver T+D and AG2602 decreased by 99 to -66. The spread between沪银2602 and 2606 contracts decreased by 414 to -13,933. The cost of the long - December and short - June inter - period arbitrage for silver decreased by 11.3 to 73.41 [1]. 3.2 Exchange Rate - The dollar index was 99.12, and the dollar - to - RMB (CNY spot) was 6.91. The euro - to - dollar was 1.16 with no change, the dollar - to - yen was 159.22 with an increase of 0.05, and the pound - to - dollar was 1.21 with no change [1]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - The Pentagon is planning a "weeks - long ground operation", and the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship and 3,500 soldiers have arrived in the Middle East [1][3]. - Saudi Arabia's key east - west oil pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz is operating at full capacity of 7 million barrels per day, and the oil exports from Yanbu Port have soared to a record high [4]. - Thailand has reached an agreement with Iran on the passage of its oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, and Malaysia says Iran allows its stranded oil tankers to pass [4]. - US consumer inflation expectations have reached the largest increase in nearly a year [4]. - Two major aluminum giants in the Middle East have been attacked. Emirates Global Aluminium has not disclosed whether it will stop production, and 6% of global production capacity is at stake. Citi says aluminum prices may soar to $4,000 per ton [4]. 3.4 Trend Strength - The trend strength of gold is 0, and that of silver is also 0 [4].

市场快讯 -- 铝的战争溢价再起 | 时间轴 | 事件 | | --- | --- | | 3月28日白天 | 伊朗革命卫队发动导弹+无人机袭击 | | 3月28日深夜 | EGA发布公告:塔维拉基地遭"严重破坏",员工受 伤 | | 3月29日凌晨 | 6.5 伊朗革命卫队发表声明,宣称对两座"与美国军事和 | | | 航空航天业有关"的铝厂实施打击 | | 3月29日早间 | 巴林铝业确认设施遭袭,2人受伤 | 研究员: 吴新扬 期货从业资格: FO3153905 期货交易咨询资格: ZO023789 联系电话: 15696029793 格林大华斯货研究院 证监许可 2011-1288号 免费审阅：本报告中的信息必採源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的影歌社及完整版不作任何保证、不保证报告信息已做最新变更、也不保证分析师做出拍任何建议不会发生任何变更。在任何情况下，很有中的信息成所歌战的意见不作内以 出价南滑价。在任何情况下，我公司不就救告中的任何内容对任何投资所做出任何形式的型。投资者面比投资、致政收险自我承担。我公司可能发出与本报告观了一致的其他报告。本报告反映分析师。 在场。未经我公司同意,任何人不得对 ...