Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily research on the black series futures, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The views on these commodities are as follows: - Iron ore: Macro - risk appetite has not significantly declined, and there is still support [2][5]. - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal: All are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9][13][16]. - Logs: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][19]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of futures contract I2601 was 772.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan or 0.46%. The import and domestic spot prices mostly increased. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [6]. - **News**: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar contract RB2510, the closing price was 3,121 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or 0.03%. For hot - rolled coil contract HC2510, the closing price was 3,375 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or 0.44%. Spot prices in different regions had minor changes, and the basis and spreads also varied [9]. - **News**: On August 21, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed that the production of rebar decreased by 5.8 tons, while that of hot - rolled coil increased by 9.65 tons. In July 2025, national steel production data showed a decline in crude steel and pig iron production year - on - year, and an increase in steel production year - on - year [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed small changes. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased, and the manganese ore price also decreased slightly. The price spreads had different changes [13]. - **News**: On August 21, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon in various regions decreased, and the prices of silicomanganese also decreased. The export and import data of silicomanganese in July 2025 were also provided [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of coking coal contract JM2601 was 1147 yuan/ton, down 15.5 yuan or 1.3%. The closing price of coke contract J2601 was 1664 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan or 0.8%. The spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable, and the basis and spreads changed [16]. - **News**: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [18]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of different log contracts showed small fluctuations. The spot prices of most log varieties in Shandong and Jiangsu markets were stable [20]. - **News**: In July, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [22].

Core Viewpoint - Nature Forestry (NWGL) experienced a stock price increase of 6.44% on August 22, reaching $1.394 per share, with a total market capitalization of $23.08 million [1] Financial Performance - As of December 31, 2024, Nature Forestry reported total revenue of $21.54 million, a year-on-year decrease of 15.39% [1] - The company recorded a net profit attributable to shareholders of -$8.73 million, which represents a year-on-year increase of 26.86% [1] Company Overview - Nature Forestry Group Limited is a foreign holding company registered in the British Virgin Islands, primarily operated by its domestic subsidiary, Nature Forestry Group Limited [1] - The company is a vertically integrated forestry business focused on FSC operations, located in Peru [1] - Nature Forestry produces a range of products including logs, flooring, lumber, regenerated charcoal, synthetic charcoal, briquette charcoal, and essential oils [1] - The group holds natural forest concessions and logging rights covering approximately 615,333 hectares in Peru [1] - The company collaborates with local forest owners in Peru and participates in timber auctions in France to supply logs [1] - Nature Forestry is committed to sustainable forest management, efficient resource utilization, and continuous product development, aiming to provide high-quality products consistently [1] - The company's goal is to become a leader in the timber industry by offering sustainable and high-quality timber products at reasonable prices [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily log report from the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Products R & D department, dated August 21, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Data Analysis Log and Timber Prices - Log prices at various ports (e.g., radiation pine and spruce at Rizhao and Taicang ports) and timber prices (e.g., radiation pine and white pine timber) remained stable with 0.00% daily and weekly changes [3] Futures Volume and Price - Futures contracts such as LG2509, LG2511, and LG2601 showed different price, volume, and持仓量 changes. For example, LG2509's closing price was 804.5 yuan/unit, down 1.0 yuan/unit from the previous day and 5.0% from the week [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Spot Market - Log spot prices remained stable. For instance, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiation pine logs in Rizhao, Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day and week [5] Supply - From August 18 - 24, 2025, 9 New Zealand log ships were expected to arrive at 11 Chinese ports, a 13% increase from the previous week, with a total arrival volume of about 32.3 million cubic meters, a 29% increase [5] Demand - Stockpiling demand was released periodically. Traders and processors stocked up in advance based on the "Golden September and Silver October" expectation, but the capital availability rate of construction sites nationwide declined, leading to weak demand transmission [10] Group 4: Strategy - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see as the log market is generally stable and medium - to - long - term demand needs further observation [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [12] - Options: Wait and see [13] Group 5: Related Diagrams - The report includes diagrams showing log and timber prices, import log CFR prices, New Zealand log shipments to China, port log inventory structures, and provincial port inventories and out - bound volumes [16][19][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: With the macro risk preference not significantly corrected, there is still support [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2][7] - Ferrosilicon: Weak oscillation due to cold market sentiment [2][10] - Silicomanganese: Weak oscillation due to cold market sentiment [2][10] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [2][13] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2][13] - Log: Repeated oscillation [2][16] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various black - series futures products on August 21, 2025, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and log, providing corresponding investment ratings and trend intensities based on fundamental data and macro - industry news [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: No detailed data presented in the text [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 15, local time, the Trump administration of the United States announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff - imposed list [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data** - Rebar (RB2510): Yesterday's closing price was 3,132 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.38%); trading volume was 1,317,374 lots, and open interest was 1,523,392 lots, a decrease of 85,302 lots [7] - Hot - rolled coil (HC2510): Yesterday's closing price was 3,402 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (- 0.61%); trading volume was 619,254 lots, and open interest was 1,123,892 lots, a decrease of 61,086 lots [7] - **Macro and Industry News** - The manufacturing supply index (MMSI) in July was 146.13, a month - on - month decrease of 4.83% [8] - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [8] - In early August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons (a 4.7% increase in daily output month - on - month); 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons (a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month); and 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons (a 4.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month) [8] - In early August 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.07 million tons, a 2.0% increase from the previous ten - day period [9] - On August 14, steel output: rebar - 0.73 million tons, hot - rolled coil + 0.7 million tons; total inventory: rebar + 30.51 million tons, hot - rolled coil + 0.84 million tons; apparent demand: rebar - 20.85 million tons, hot - rolled coil + 8.54 million tons [9] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data** - Ferrosilicon 2511: Closing price was 5,622 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton; trading volume was 267,911 lots, and open interest was 228,094 lots [10] - Silicomanganese 2511: Closing price was 5,818 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton; trading volume was 56,642 lots, and open interest was 117,713 lots [10] - **Macro and Industry News** - On August 20, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton (- 50), and the price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton (- 50) [11] - A steel mill in Fujian set the price of silicomanganese at 6,017 yuan/ton on the 19th, a 217 - yuan increase from July, with a procurement volume of 11,600 tons [11] - In July 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 2.7435 million tons, a 2.22% increase from June and a 19.61% increase from July last year [12] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a relatively weak downward trend [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data** - Coking coal (JM2601): Closing price was 1,162.5 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (- 2.7%); trading volume was 1,974,478 lots, and open interest was 698,714 lots, a decrease of 15,151 lots [13] - Coke (J2601): Closing price was 1,678 yuan/ton, down 30.5 yuan/ton (- 1.8%); trading volume was 30,721 lots, and open interest was 39,060 lots, an increase of 644 lots [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 15, local time, the Trump administration of the United States announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff - imposed list [14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [15] Log - **Fundamental Data**: The report provides detailed data on the closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of log futures contracts (such as 2509, 2511, 2601), as well as the price information of log spot markets in Shandong and Jiangsu [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, the commodity residential sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed [19] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the financial performance and market position of Natural Forestry (NWGL), noting a stock price increase and a significant decline in revenue while reporting a net loss that has improved year-over-year [1] - As of August 20, Natural Forestry's stock rose by 3.73%, reaching $1.39 per share, with a total market capitalization of $23.0089 million [1] - Financial data indicates that for the year ending December 31, 2024, Natural Forestry's total revenue is projected to be $21.5393 million, representing a year-over-year decrease of 15.39%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be -$8.7285 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 26.86% [1] Group 2 - Natural Forestry Group Limited is a foreign holding company registered in the British Virgin Islands, primarily operated by its domestic subsidiary, focusing on vertical integration in the forestry sector [1] - The company specializes in FSC business operations in Peru, producing a range of products including logs, flooring, lumber, and charcoal [1] - Natural Forestry holds logging rights over approximately 615,333 hectares of natural forest in Peru and collaborates with local forest owners while participating in timber auctions in France [1] - The company is committed to sustainable forest management, efficient resource utilization, and continuous product development, aiming to become a leader in the timber industry by providing high-quality and sustainable wood products at reasonable prices [1]

Group 1: Tariff Strategy - Tariffs are a key tool in Trump's economic policy, evolving from targeted strikes to a comprehensive strategy in his second term[2] - The tariff strategy consists of four main components: reciprocal tariffs, punitive tariffs, transshipment tariffs, and industry protection barriers[6] - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has increased by 16.2 percentage points, reaching 18.6%, the highest level since the Great Depression[29] Group 2: Trade Relations and Impact - The U.S. is transitioning to a more decentralized trade structure, moving away from reliance on the U.S.-China economic relationship[3] - The imposition of tariffs has led to a significant increase in import costs, with specific tariffs reaching as high as 50% on steel and aluminum products[21] - The U.S. government is using tariffs as a diplomatic tool, with punitive tariffs being applied to countries like Canada and Mexico, and targeting third-party nations involved in trade with adversaries[11] Group 3: Economic Consequences - Pre-tariff import surges led to a 4.67% month-on-month increase in imports in March, followed by a 1.39% year-on-year decline in June, indicating a demand pullback[29] - U.S. businesses are entering a de-inventory phase, with durable goods inventory growth slowing from 1.52% in March to 0.17% in June[29] - The uncertainty surrounding new tariff tools and potential trade negotiations post-midterm elections poses risks to global supply chains and capital markets[4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides trend forecasts for various black - series commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. For example, iron ore has support as the macro risk appetite has not significantly declined; rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; ferrosilicon is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation due to weak sector sentiment; silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with a firm spot quotation; coke and coking coal are expected to fluctuate at high levels; logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][5][8][9][13][16][19]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Forecast**: Macro risk appetite has not significantly declined, and there is still support [2][5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The trend strength is 1. On August 15, 2025, the Trump administration of the United States announced an expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff - adding list [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend Forecast**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9]. - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar futures contract RB2510, the closing price was 3,155 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (- 0.88%); for hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2510, the closing price was 3,419 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (- 0.20%). In early August 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel increased by 4.7% month - on - month, pig iron by 3.2% month - on - month, and steel decreased by 4.1% month - on - month. The trend strength of both is 0 [9][10][12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Forecast**: Ferrosilicon is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation due to weak sector sentiment; silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with a firm spot quotation [2][13]. - **Fundamental Data**: For example, the closing price of ferrosilicon 2509 was 5,710 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the closing price of silicomanganese 2509 was 6,026 yuan/ton, unchanged. As of August 16, the total manganese ore inventory decreased by 1.65 million tons month - on - month. The trend strength of both is 0 [13][14][15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Forecast**: Both are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][16]. - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal futures contract JM2601, the closing price was 1,187.5 yuan/ton, down 42.5 yuan (- 3.5%); for coke futures contract J2601, the closing price was 1,702 yuan/ton, down 27.5 yuan (- 1.6%). The trend strength of both is 0 [16][18]. Logs - **Trend Forecast**: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][19]. - **Fundamental Data**: The price of various log products showed different changes in terms of closing price, trading volume, and position. For example, the closing price of the 2509 log contract decreased by 2.1% week - on - week. In July, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed. The trend strength is 0 [20][22].

Core Viewpoint - Nature Forestry (NWGL) experienced a significant stock price increase of 11.2% on August 19, reaching $1.39 per share, with a total market capitalization of $23.01 million [1] Financial Performance - As of December 31, 2024, Nature Forestry reported total revenue of $21.54 million, a year-on-year decrease of 15.39% [1] - The company recorded a net profit attributable to shareholders of -$8.73 million, which represents a year-on-year increase of 26.86% [1] Company Overview - Nature Forestry Group Limited is a foreign holding company registered in the British Virgin Islands, primarily operated by its domestic subsidiary, Nature Forestry Group Limited [1] - The company is a vertically integrated forestry business focused on FSC operations, located in Peru [1] - Nature Forestry produces a range of products including logs, flooring, lumber, regenerated charcoal, synthetic charcoal, mechanized charcoal, and essential oils [1] - The company holds natural forest concessions and logging rights in Peru, covering an area of approximately 615,333 hectares [1] - Nature Forestry collaborates with local forest owners in Peru and participates in timber auctions in France to supply logs [1] - The company is committed to sustainable forest management, efficient resource utilization, and continuous product development, aiming to provide high-quality products consistently [1] - The goal of Nature Forestry is to become a leader in the timber industry while offering sustainable and high-quality wood products at reasonable prices [1]

Core Insights - Nature Forestry (NWGL) opened with an 8.0% increase, trading at $1.35 per share, with a total market capitalization of $22.3468 million as of August 18 [1] - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, Nature Forestry reported total revenue of $21.5393 million, a year-over-year decrease of 15.39%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -$8.7285 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 26.86% [1] Company Overview - Nature Forestry Group Limited is a foreign holding company registered in the British Virgin Islands, primarily operated by its domestic subsidiary, Nature Forestry Group Limited [1] - The company is a vertically integrated forestry business focused on FSC operations, located in Peru, producing a range of products including logs, flooring, lumber, regenerated charcoal, synthetic charcoal, briquette charcoal, and essential oils [1] - Nature Forestry holds natural forest concessions and logging rights covering approximately 615,333 hectares in Peru and collaborates with local forest owners while participating in timber auctions in France to supply logs [1] - The company is committed to sustainable forest management, efficient resource utilization, continuous product development, and consistently providing high-quality products to customers, aiming to become a leader in the timber industry by offering sustainable and high-quality wood products at reasonable prices [1]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Core View - Supply side: Rainfall in the producing areas may affect the release of new rubber, and the raw material procurement price is strong. Future focus is on the raw material situation during the peak production period. Demand side: Current channel trading is average, some agents replenish goods as needed and mainly control inventory. Terminal demand has no obvious improvement, and channels are cautious about restocking. Market sentiment has cooled recently. If the raw material volume increases smoothly during the peak production period, consider short - selling at high prices [2]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained unchanged at 14,800 yuan/ton. The basis of whole milk switched to the 2509 contract increased by 165 yuan/ton to - 832 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 16.50%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 14,400 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.37% [2]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 1000 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.99%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.33%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1065 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.47% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, Thailand's production was 392,600 tons, a 44.23% increase; Indonesia's production was 176,200 tons, a 12.03% decrease; India's production was 62,400 tons, a 30.82% increase; China's production was 103,200 tons, a 6.8 - ton increase. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles decreased by 2.28 percentage points to 72.07%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 2.09 percentage points to 63.09%. In June, domestic tire production was 102.749 million pieces, a 0.74% increase; tire export volume was 60.31 million pieces, a 2.44% decrease; natural rubber import volume was 463,400 tons, a 2.21% increase [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory decreased by 8,614 tons to 631,770 tons, a decline of 1.35%; the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 2,519 tons to 42,235 tons, a growth of 6.34% [2]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Core View - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and the main contract has rebounded. Although the market is not optimistic about the capacity clearance and self - discipline of industrial silicon, in the context of the anti - involution policy, the overall operating price center of commodities has moved up, and industrial silicon is no exception. The cost of raw materials such as coal may increase, which will push up the cost of industrial silicon and raise the future price center. In August, the supply and demand of the industrial silicon market both increase, and it is expected to reach a tight balance. The main price fluctuation range may be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price drops to 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, consider buying on dips. The inventory has increased, but the warehouse receipts are still decreasing. The main contract has shifted to SI2511, and the position of the 09 contract has decreased to about 50,000 lots. Technically, the hourly line has weakened, and it may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [4]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis of the Main Contract**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,400 yuan/ton; the basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 725 yuan/ton, a decline of 9.38%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,750 yuan/ton; the basis (based on SI4210) decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 275 yuan/ton, a decline of 21.43% [4]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 900.00%; the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 30 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton, a growth of 85.71% [4]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National industrial silicon production was 338,300 tons, a 3.23% increase; Xinjiang's production was 150,300 tons, a 15.21% decrease; Yunnan's production was 41,200 tons, a 153.86% increase; Sichuan's production was 48,500 tons, a 31.05% increase. The national operating rate was 52.61%, a 2.47% increase; Xinjiang's operating rate was 52.59%, an 18.21% decrease; Yunnan's operating rate was 32.89%, a 133.76% increase; Sichuan's operating rate was 36.96%, a 56.81% increase. Organic silicon DMC production was 199,800 tons, a 4.54% decrease; polysilicon production was 101,000 tons, a 5.10% increase; recycled aluminum alloy production was 625,000 tons, a 1.63% increase; industrial silicon export volume was 68,300 tons, a 22.77% increase [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.01 tons to 11,700 tons, a growth of 0.09%; Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.08 tons to 3,140 tons, a growth of 2.61%; Sichuan factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.02 tons to 2,260 tons, a decline of 0.88%. Social inventory decreased by 0.20 tons to 54,500 tons, a decline of 0.37%; warehouse receipt inventory remained unchanged at 25,350 tons; non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.20 tons to 29,150 tons, a decline of 0.67% [4]. Group 3: Polysilicon Core View - In August, the supply and demand of polysilicon both increase, but the supply growth rate is larger, and there is still pressure to accumulate inventory. Due to the previous sharp price increase above the full - cost level, it is expected that the number of warehouse receipts will further increase. If there is new progress in capacity integration or clearance, polysilicon prices are expected to rise again. Otherwise, it may fluctuate and decline under the pressure of inventory and warehouse receipt increase. Currently, there are news of production restrictions, and future attention should be paid to the enterprise's operating conditions and production changes. The main price fluctuation range may be between 45,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton. After the price returns to the lower edge of the cost range, consider buying on dips. When the price is high, consider buying put options to short. The position of the 09 contract has decreased to about 18,000 lots, and investors are advised to pay attention to position control and risk management in advance [5]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re - feed material remained unchanged at 47,000 yuan/ton; the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 44,500 yuan/ton. The basis of N - type material (average price) increased by 860 yuan/ton to - 3,430 yuan/ton, a growth of 20.05%. The average price of N - type silicon wafers (210mm) decreased by 0.01 yuan/piece to 1.54 yuan/piece, a decline of 0.65% [5]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 860 yuan/ton to 50,430 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.68%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 975 yuan/ton to - 740 yuan/ton, a decline of 414.89% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.01 tons to 29,300 tons; silicon wafer production increased by 0.08 GW to 12.1 GW. Monthly polysilicon production was 101,000 tons, a 5.10% increase; polysilicon import volume was 80 tons, a 16.90% decrease; polysilicon export volume was 210 tons, a 66.17% increase; polysilicon net export volume was 130 tons, a 323.61% increase. Silicon wafer production was 52.75 GW, a 10.35% decrease; silicon wafer import volume was 70 tons, a 15.29% decrease; silicon wafer export volume was 550 tons, a 12.97% decrease; silicon wafer net export volume was 480 tons, a 12.59% decrease; silicon wafer demand was 58.54 GW, a 0.21% increase [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.90 tons to 24,200 tons, a growth of 3.86%; silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.69 GW to 19.8 GW, a growth of 3.61%. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 330 to 5,480 [5]. Group 4: Logs Core View - From the fundamental perspective, the demand side currently remains strong at the level of 64,000 cubic meters. The inventory has significantly decreased due to fewer unloading ports and strong shipment volume. From the perspective of shipments from New Zealand, it is expected that the overall shipments in August will be the same as in July. Currently, short - term demand is strong, but the medium - and long - term demand improvement needs to be verified. This week, the futures market was weakened by new warehouse receipts. Technically, the market is in a downward correction trend. Pay attention to the support level around 800 yuan/cubic meter. At low prices, there may be long - position buyers. It is recommended to buy on dips after the market stabilizes [6]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The price of Log 2509 decreased by 3.5 yuan/cubic meter to 809.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.43%; the price of Log 2511 decreased by 5.5 yuan/cubic meter to 828.0 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.66%; the price of Log 2601 decreased by 7.5 yuan/cubic meter to 838.0 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.89%. The spread between 9 - 11 increased by 2.0 yuan/cubic meter to - 18.5 yuan/cubic meter; the spread between 9 - 1 increased by 4.0 yuan/cubic meter to - 28.5 yuan/cubic meter. The basis of the 09 contract increased by 3.5 yuan/cubic meter to - 59.5 yuan/cubic meter; the basis of the 11 contract increased by 5.5 yuan/cubic meter to - 78.0 yuan/cubic meter; the basis of the 01 contract increased by 7.5 yuan/cubic meter to - 88.0 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9A small radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 720 yuan/cubic meter; the price of 3.9A medium radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 750 yuan/cubic meter; the price of 3.9A large radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 860 yuan/cubic meter [6]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.01 to 7.173, and the import theoretical cost decreased by 1.00 yuan/cubic meter to 817.60 yuan/cubic meter [6]. - **Monthly Data**: The port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 27,000 cubic meters to 1.733 million cubic meters, a decline of 1.51%. The number of departing ships decreased by 6 to 47, a decline of 11.32% [6]. - **Inventory and Demand**: As of August 8, the national coniferous log inventory was 3.08 million cubic meters, a decrease of 90,000 cubic meters, a decline of 2.84%. The average daily shipment volume of logs was 64,200 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous period [6]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Core View - **Soda Ash**: Recent information from Qinghai has affected the market sentiment, but it has no impact on the supply in Qinghai for now. The weekly production has significantly rebounded, and the inventory has returned to the accumulation stage, with obvious overall over - supply in the fundamentals. Recently, the spot sales have weakened. In the medium term, after the photovoltaic installation rush in the second quarter, the growth of photovoltaic glass production capacity has slowed down, the float glass production capacity has remained flat, and there is still pressure on supply and demand in the future, with a further cold - repair expectation. Therefore, there is no growth expectation for the overall demand of soda ash. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction in the future, the inventory will be further pressured. In August, which is the traditional summer maintenance season for the soda ash industry, track the implementation of policies and the load adjustment of soda ash plants. The previous market increase was due to news, and consider short - selling at high prices [7]. - **Glass**: The market has been weak recently, and the negative feedback in the market continues. After the previous sharp price increase, the inventory has shifted from manufacturers to middle - stream traders and futures - cash traders, and the futures - cash inventory in Shahe has reached a new high. In the future, there may be a rush to sell during the shipment process. In Hubei, the inventory has also shifted, and the middle - stream faces shipment pressure, which will squeeze the manufacturers' shipments. Therefore, it is difficult to further increase the overall spot price. Fundamentally, the deep - processing orders are weak, the operating rate of low - emissivity glass is continuously low, and there is certain pressure on the rigid demand side of glass. In the long run, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the completion volume is shrinking. Eventually, the industry needs to clear the excess capacity to solve the dilemma. In August, track the implementation of local policies and the restocking performance of downstream enterprises near the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Currently, the market sentiment has declined, and short positions can be held, while being vigilant about the market fluctuations caused by macro - factors [7]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of glass in North China remained unchanged at 1,150 yuan/ton; the price of glass in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,220 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.81%. The price of Glass 2505 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 1,316 yuan/ton, a growth of 0.61%; the price of Glass 2509 decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 1,053 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.75%. The 05 basis decreased by 8 yuan/ton to - 166 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.06% [7]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of soda ash in North China remained unchanged at 1,350 yuan/ton; the price of soda ash in East China decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 1,250 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.85%. The price of Soda Ash 2505 increased by 15 yuan/ton to 1,452 yuan/ton, a growth of 1.04%; the price of Soda Ash 2509 increased by 18 yuan/ton to 1,294 yuan/ton, a growth of 1.25%. The 05 basis decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 102 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.24% [7]. - **Supply Data**: The operating rate of soda ash increased by 2.24 percentage