2025年06月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：板块预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：黑色板块共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：三轮提降开启，盘面震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，盘面震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：底部阶段企稳运行 | 9 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 铁矿石：板块预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 1. 29% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 704. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment: - Iron ore: -2 (most bearish) [5] - Rebar: 0 (neutral) [9] - Hot-rolled coil: 0 (neutral) [9] - Ferrosilicon: -1 (bearish) [13] - Silicomanganese: -1 (bearish) [13] - Coke: -1 (bearish) [16] - Coking coal: -1 (bearish) [16] - Thermal coal: 0 (neutral) [19] - Logs: -1 (bearish) [24] 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore faces downward price risks due to weak demand expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to oscillate at low levels with negative feedback expectations leading [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon will experience weak oscillations due to poor demand expectations, and silicomanganese will also have weak oscillations as port ore transactions are under pressure [2][11]. - Coke has seen the second round of price cuts implemented and is expected to oscillate weakly, while coking coal is also expected to oscillate weakly [2][14]. - Thermal coal is stabilizing at the bottom stage [2][17]. - Logs are expected to oscillate weakly [2][20]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: Futures price closed at 702.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan (-0.71%); open interest decreased by 1,831 hands. Spot prices of various iron ores declined, with the largest drop of 5.0 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads also changed slightly [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5% [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: Rebar RB2510 closed at 2,964 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan (-0.77%); hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan (-0.55%). Spot prices in most regions decreased, and the basis and spreads changed accordingly [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the weekly data on May 29, rebar production decreased by 5.97 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 13.87 tons; total inventory of rebar decreased by 23.17 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil decreased by 7.38 tons; apparent demand for rebar increased by 1.55 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil increased by 13.87 tons. On May 30, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.87%, up 0.18 percentage points week - on - week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.69%, down 0.63 percentage points week - on - week; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, down 0.87 percentage points week - on - week; the daily average pig iron output was 241.91 tons, down 1.69 tons week - on - week. In April 2025, global crude steel production decreased by 0.3% year - on - year to 155.7 million tons. In mid - May 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily crude steel output decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, pig iron output decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, and steel output increased by 1.9% month - on - month [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of silicomanganese increased by 120 yuan/ton, while that of ferrosilicon decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The basis, spreads between near and far months, and cross - variety spreads all changed [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of May 30, prices of various grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed. Manganese ore inventory at major ports decreased by 13.83 million tons week - on - week as of May 30. Some steel mills' procurement prices and volumes of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were announced [11][13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased. Spot prices of coking coal in some regions decreased, and that of coke also decreased. The basis and spreads changed [14]. - **Price and Position Information**: Coking coal quotes at northern ports were provided. On May 30, the long - short positions of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 contracts in the top 20 members of the DCE changed [14][16]. Thermal Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The ZC2506 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan from the previous settlement price [17]. - **Fundamentals**: Quotes of foreign trade thermal coal at southern ports and domestic thermal coal at production areas were provided. On May 30, the long - short positions of the ZC2506 contract in the top 20 members of the ZCE did not change [18]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts changed. Spot prices of most log products remained stable, with only a few showing small fluctuations [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to April 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, and residential investment decreased by 9.6% year - on - year [24].

Group 1: Silver Market Analysis - London silver is currently trading above $33.54, with an opening price of $33.03 per ounce and a current price of $33.48, reflecting a 1.33% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was $33.54, while the lowest was $32.88, indicating a short-term bullish trend in the silver market [1] - The trading range for platinum metal over the past month has been between $31.65 and $33.70, with recent price movements showing uncertainty as it fluctuates around the 20-period exponential moving average [3] Group 2: EU-US Trade Negotiations - EU and US tariff negotiations have resumed but remain fraught with uncertainty, with the EU willing to make concessions on purchasing US natural gas, weapons, and agricultural products, while rejecting US demands to eliminate VAT and weaken digital regulations [2] - The US continues to impose a 25% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products and maintains a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all other goods, threatening additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and other key sectors [2] - The EU has initiated public consultations on a list of nearly €100 billion worth of goods in response to US tariffs and plans to file a complaint with the WTO regarding US tariffs on cars and parts [2]

Core Insights - The second Hainan Agarwood and Huanghuali International Trade Fair, named "Tianxiang Guose," was promoted in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, highlighting the growing interest in Hainan agarwood in the region [1][2] - The Saudi Arabian fragrance and perfume industry has seen significant growth due to increasing local demand and expansion into regional and global markets, creating opportunities for collaboration with Chinese companies [1] - The event aims to strengthen trade and economic relations between China and Saudi Arabia, facilitating knowledge sharing and enhancing economic and investment cooperation [1] Industry Overview - China's annual production of agarwood raw materials is approximately 4,000 tons, covering four main categories: incense, cultural and artistic products, pharmaceuticals, and daily chemical products, with over 300 subcategories [2] - Hainan agarwood is renowned for its exceptional quality and medicinal value, benefiting from the unique tropical climate and soil conditions, while Huanghuali is considered a precious wood highly sought after in the market [2] - The promotion event has created a favorable international atmosphere for the second Tianxiang Guose exhibition, enhancing brand building and channel expansion for Hainan agarwood and Huanghuali in the Saudi market [2]

2025年05月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：低位震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：低位震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：澳矿恢复发运，锰硅偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：底部震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：底部震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 10 | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 21 日 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 725.0 | 2. 5 | 0. 35% | | | 12509 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 734. 15 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The spot price of mainstream delivery products shows different trends in different regions, with a slight decline in Shandong and stability in Jiangsu. The supply from New Zealand is expected to reach 1.19 million cubic meters in May. The demand and inventory situation varies among ports, with overall de - stocking in the four major ports. The futures market is in a weak and volatile state with a weak supply - demand pattern [4][5][15] Summary by Directory 1. Overview - For the mainstream delivery product of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market quotes 770 yuan/cubic meter, down slightly from last week, and the Jiangsu market quotes 785 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong is 830 yuan/cubic meter, down slightly. The price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong is 780 yuan/cubic meter, down 15 yuan/cubic meter from last week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are in short supply [4] - As of May 4, there are 5 ships departing from New Zealand in May, all going to the Chinese mainland, and about 5 are expected to arrive in May, with an expected arrival of 1.19 million cubic meters [4][7] - As of the week of May 2, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port is 2.24 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.27 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port is 1.03 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 0.37 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2.309 million cubic meters, with a slight de - stocking of 0.1547 million cubic meters compared to the previous week [5][12] - As of the week of May 12, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is 1373 points, up 112 points (+8.9%) from last week, and its related sub - index BHSI is 568 points, down 0.2% from last week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1347.84 points, down 1.7% from last week. The US dollar index rebounds, with the US dollar - RMB exchange rate down 0.5% and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate down 0.6% from last week [5][55] 2. Supply - As of May 4, there are 5 ships departing from New Zealand in May, all headed for the Chinese mainland, and about 5 are expected to arrive in May, with an expected arrival volume of 1.19 million cubic meters [7] - Details of New Zealand log shipping schedules are provided, including departure time, load capacity, current port, next port, and expected arrival time [8] 3. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of May 2, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port is 2.24 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.27 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port is 1.03 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 0.37 million cubic meters) [5][12] - The inventory of Lanshan Port is about 1.2658 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 26,000 cubic meters, - 2.01%), Taicang Port is about 0.5515 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 80,700 cubic meters, - 12.76%), Xinminzhou is about 0.2746 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 47,700 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port is about 0.2171 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 300 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2.309 million cubic meters, with a slight de - stocking of 154,700 cubic meters compared to the previous week [5][12] 4. Market Trends - As of May 9, the closing price of the main contract LG2507 is 784.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.3% from last week. The futures market continues to be weak and volatile, and the fundamentals maintain a weak supply - demand pattern. The month - spread changes are small this week, with the 07 - 09 month - spread at - 14.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 07 - 11 month - spread at - 19.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 month - spread at - 5 yuan/cubic meter [15] 5. Price and Spread - The spot price of logs and downstream construction timber shows different trends in different regions and specifications. Most prices remain stable compared to last week, with some showing slight decreases or increases over a four - week period [19][21] - The regional price differences between Shandong and Jiangsu for different tree species and specifications of logs are presented graphically [22][23][28] - The price differences between different tree species and specifications of logs are also presented graphically [40][42][44] 6. Other - The freight index and exchange rate data are provided. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the Handysize Bulk Carrier Index (BHSI), the Crude Oil Tanker Index (BDTI) show different changes compared to last week and four weeks ago. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has a small change. The US dollar - RMB and US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rates also change [54][55]

2025年05月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：空头减仓离场，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：澳矿港口报价上移，锰硅偏强震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 焦煤：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 动力煤：强制疏港情绪影响，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 5 月 9 日 商 品 研 究 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 张广硕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马亮 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 | maliang@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the announcement by President Trump regarding a 25% tariff on all imported cars, effective April 2, which is intended to be a permanent measure aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The 25% tariff will apply to imported passenger cars, light trucks, and key automotive components such as engines, transmissions, and electrical parts, with potential for additional tariffs on other components if necessary [5]. - Components that comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be exempt from these tariffs until further discussions between the Secretary of Commerce and Customs and Border Protection [5]. Group 2: Reactions and Implications - Canadian Prime Minister Carney indicated that Canada would respond to the new tariffs with potential retaliatory tariffs, viewing the announcement as a direct attack on Canadian workers [6][7]. - Trump stated that there was no input or benefit sought from Tesla's CEO Elon Musk regarding the tariffs [3].

作者： 裴明楠 林彦 美国关税的"D-day"（第二次世界大战中盟军诺曼底登陆的日子）渐近，4月份特朗普的新关税组合拳或分两部分：一是"对等关税"；二是针对性的行业关税。 对等关税本身的不确定性主要在于"非税壁垒"将被多大程度纳入计算，对中国而言，加征对等关税的"纸面"空间目测有限（美对中关税>中对美关税+进口增值 税），但不排除将其他贸易壁垒加入计算从而再次提高关税；预计印度和欧盟国家面临的对等税率或较高。经济后果的不确定性则在于对手国是否愿意妥协对美降 关税。 于中国而言，主要关注以下两点： 加征对等关税的"纸面"空间料有限，关注非税壁垒。 目前中国对美平均关税16.0%，算上中国13%的增值税共计29%，仍略低于美国对中国平均关税32%（包含今年 新增的20%） ，美国对华加征的"纸面"空间有限，但若美方将非税壁垒纳入计算，仍有对中国征对等关税的理由。 | 状态 | 对象 | 关税措施/计划的内容 | | --- | --- | --- | | こ溶地 | 北美 | 对来自加墨的不符合"美墨加协定" (USMCA) 的商品征收25%普遍关税 (其中加拿大能源10% | | | | 、加墨的钾肥10%关税 ...

证券简称： 广厦环能 证券代码： 873703 北京广厦环能科技股份有限公司 北京市大兴区金星西路 6 号兴创大厦 702 室 北京广厦环能科技股份有限公司招股说明书（申报稿） 本公司的发行申请尚未经中国证监会注册。本招股说明书申报稿不具有据以发行股票的法律效 力，投资者应当以正式公告的招股说明书全文作为投资决定的依据。 本次股票发行后拟在北京证券交易所上市，该市场具有较高的投资风险。北京证券交易所主要 服务创新型中小企业，上市公司具有经营风险高、业绩不稳定、退市风险高等特点，投资者面临较 大的市场风险。投资者应充分了解北京证券交易所市场的投资风险及本公司所披露的风险因素，审 慎作出投资决定。 保荐机构（主承销商） （北京市朝阳区安立路 66 号 4 号楼） 1-1-1 中国证监会和北京证券交易所对本次发行所作的任何决定或意见，均不表明其对注册申 请文件及所披露信息的真实性、准确性、完整性作出保证，也不表明其对发行人的盈利能力、 投资价值或者对投资者的收益作出实质性判断或者保证。任何与之相反的声明均属虚假不实 陈述。 根据《证券法》的规定，股票依法发行后，发行人经营与收益的变化，由发行人自行负 责；投资者自主 ...