（本文作者张思远为星图金融研究院研究员） 一、政策红利密集落地，春季行情有望提前启动 2026年作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，宏观政策的前瞻性布局与协同发力为资本市场提供了坚实支撑。 中央经济工作会议定调后，国家发改委、中央财办等核心部门密集开展政策解读，持续释放积极信号， 不仅明确了全年经济工作的核心方向，也为A股市场注入了强劲信心。从政策传导逻辑来看，积极财政 政策与适度宽松货币政策的组合发力，将有效缓解当前经济运行中的"供强需弱"矛盾，推动经济复苏预 期持续升温，而这一过程将直接赋能资本市场，催化春季行情提前启动。 （一）国内宏观政策协同发力，夯实经济复苏基础 中央财办在政策解读中明确，扩大内需将成为2026年经济工作的首要任务，核心在于构建供需两侧协同 提振消费的长效机制，同时统筹推进消费与投资的良性互动。在房地产市场调控方面，政策呈现供需两 端精准施策的特征。供给端聚焦"控增量、盘活存量"的核心目标，通过去库存化优化市场供给结构；需 求端则重点支持刚性与改善性住房需求，通过差异化信贷政策、购房补贴等举措稳定市场预期，推动房 地产市场实现平稳健康发展。 国家发改委明确2026年将围绕提振消费、稳投资、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of leveraging investment and consumption to stimulate economic growth in Yunnan Province, aligning with national policies to create a robust domestic market and support the new development pattern [7]. Investment and Consumption Potential - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is identified as a critical time for Yunnan's development, focusing on enhancing investment and consumption as dual drivers to unlock market potential [6][9]. - Investment is highlighted as a stabilizing force for growth and a catalyst for structural adjustment, with a focus on infrastructure and human capital [9]. - Specific sectors for investment include transportation, water conservancy, agriculture, tourism, and energy, with an emphasis on improving public services in education, healthcare, and cultural sectors [9]. Economic Growth and Structural Adjustment - The article notes that Yunnan's economy has surpassed 3 trillion yuan, with a target for further growth in 2024 [3]. - The province's real estate market is seen as a key area for expanding investment and consumption, with sales growth outpacing the national average by 9.2 percentage points from January to November 2025 [10]. Consumer Market Activation - New consumption scenarios and business models are essential for unlocking consumer potential, with a focus on integrating Yunnan's unique natural and cultural resources into tourism and wellness experiences [9]. - The example of Tengchong shows a 42% increase in tourism numbers and a rise in per capita spending to 13,000 yuan, indicating significant potential in the tourism sector [9]. Real Estate Market Development - The real estate sector is positioned as a priority for investment and consumption, particularly given Yunnan's urbanization rate is below the national average, suggesting substantial growth opportunities [10]. - Strategies include designing housing that meets the needs of urbanizing populations and enhancing marketing efforts to stimulate market activity [10].

智通财经APP获悉，香港差饷物业估价署数据显示，今年11月香港私人住宅楼价指数报297.3点，月环 比微升0.92%，连升6个月，同比升1.99%；今年首11个月累升2.8%。另外，11月份租金指数为200.7点， 月环比升0.2%，同比升4.59%；今年首11个月累升4.26%。 ...

Group 1: Macro and Industry Policy Tracking - The report highlights a focus on multi-field collaborative advancement in industry policies, including the cultivation of emerging industries such as integrated circuits and low-altitude economy, as well as strengthening 6G research [1][10] - The housing and urban-rural construction meeting emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market and developing a new model characterized by the sale of existing homes, with a focus on policies tailored to individual cities [1][12] - The transportation department predicts that yacht and cruise consumption will evolve towards mass-market and large-scale development, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [1][13] Group 2: Financial Regulations - The financial regulatory authority has standardized the information disclosure of asset management products to protect investor rights, ensuring transparency and accountability in financial products [1][16] Group 3: Energy and Technology Developments - The energy sector is promoting the large-scale development of solar thermal power and has introduced the world's first mandatory standard for electric vehicle energy consumption, which will enhance vehicle performance and consumer experience [1][18] - A significant technological breakthrough was achieved in the field of superconducting magnetic levitation, with a test speed of 700 km/h, marking a milestone in China's technological advancement [1][19] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the top five sectors by growth being industrial trade and comprehensive (+7.34%), non-ferrous metals (+6.55%), chemicals (+5.86%), national defense and military industry (+5.81%), and hardware equipment (+4.99%) [1][22] Group 5: Popular Concepts Tracking - The report identifies the top five popular concepts this week, with lithium battery electrolyte (+17.80%), Hainan Free Trade Port (+10.98%), 6G (+9.40%), RF and antennas (+9.27%), and power batteries (+8.78%) showing significant growth [2][25]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved an eight-day winning streak, with a weekly increase of 1.88%, indicating a "steady rise" trend [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index performed better, with weekly gains of 3.55% and 3.90% respectively [2] - The Wande Commercial Aerospace Index surged by 8.36%, marking its largest weekly gain in the second half of the year [2] - The overall market sentiment showed improvement, with increased trading volumes, indicating a recovery in risk appetite [4] Equity Market - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets significantly increased to 1.95 trillion yuan, surpassing 2 trillion yuan on Friday [4] - Growth style stocks outperformed value style stocks, suggesting a shift in market preference [4] - The market is showing signs of breaking out of the consolidation phase, with a need to closely monitor changes in trading volume [4] Bond Market - The bond market showed a recovery, with both interest rate bonds and credit bonds strengthening, supported by a balanced funding environment [2][29] - The central bank's measures have maintained liquidity, alleviating initial concerns about market adjustments [5] - A cautious approach is recommended for long-term bonds due to supply pressures, with a focus on short to medium-term bond strategies [5] Commodity Market - COMEX gold prices continued to rise, reaching new highs, driven by a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions [2] - The South China Commodity Index increased by 4.00%, with significant gains in precious metals and non-ferrous metals [33] - The outlook for gold remains positive in the medium to long term, supported by factors such as central bank purchases and limited supply capacity [6] Overseas Market - The U.S. stock market showed resilience, with the S&P 500 reaching new highs, supported by strong economic data [2] - The U.S. GDP for Q3 was reported at an annualized rate of 4.3%, exceeding expectations, which has led to a slight reduction in interest rate cut expectations [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider diversified overseas investments through QDII funds, balancing asset classes and regional exposures [7]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index has short-term support at the 25,000 point level, with expectations of two interest rate cuts in 2026 following the Federal Reserve's recent 0.25% rate cut, which brings the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [1][4] - The market anticipates a dovish monetary policy stance post-2026 leadership change, but further observation of economic data is necessary [1] - The Chinese economy is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with a focus on stabilizing investment and the real estate market, while the US-China tariff war has paused, limiting the incentive for aggressive policy adjustments in the short term [1] Company News - Xiaomi's co-founder Lin Bin plans to sell up to $2 billion worth of shares, with proceeds intended for establishing an investment fund [10] - Leapmotor has received a premium subscription from FAW for nearly 75 million shares, amounting to over 4.1 billion RMB [10] - ByteDance is expected to purchase Huawei's Ascend chips next year, with total orders potentially exceeding 40 billion RMB, marking a significant increase from nearly zero in 2025 [10] - UBTECH Robotics has acquired a 43% stake in Fenglong for approximately 1.665 billion RMB, focusing on garden machinery and automotive components [10] - Vanke's domestic bond extension proposal was not approved, but a grace period extension was passed, allowing for a 30-day extension [10] Industry Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is addressing "involution" competition in new energy vehicles and related industries, emphasizing price monitoring and quality checks to prevent disorderly competition [9] - The Chinese government is set to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on boosting consumption and effective investment in key areas [9] - The industrial profits in China fell by 13.1% year-on-year in November, indicating challenges in the industrial sector [9] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology forecasts a 5.9% growth in industrial value added for the year, with significant growth in high-tech manufacturing [9]

晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 12 月 29 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 | 联系人：王竣冬 | | --- | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 尿素 | 碳酸锂 | 合成橡胶 | | | | 短纤 | 液化石油气 | 橡胶 | | | | 瓶片 | 锌 | 多晶硅 | | | | PTA | 铝 | 沥青 | | | | 乙二醇 | 工业硅 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 对二甲苯 | 燃油 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 硅铁 | 眞湘 | 塑料 | | | | 锰硅 | 烧碱 | 甲醇 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong residential property market has reached a four-year high in transactions, driven by a low interest environment and active stock market, with property prices reversing a three-year decline and increasing nearly 4%. Forecasts for 2026 suggest property prices may rise between 5% to 15% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Predictions by Real Estate Firms - JLL expresses confidence that property prices have bottomed out this year, with a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2026, predicting a 5% increase in small to medium-sized residential prices and a similar rise in medium-sized rental prices. Luxury property prices are expected to remain stable, with rental increases of 0-5% anticipated. New developments and younger properties are expected to see more significant price increases [1]. - CBRE forecasts that residential transaction volumes next year will be similar to this year's levels, with property price increases capped at 5%. Rental growth is expected to slow slightly to around 3% [1]. - Knight Frank predicts luxury property prices will rise by 3-5%, while general residential prices are expected to increase by 5-8%, with both general and luxury rental prices rising by 3-5% [1]. - Savills anticipates a continued upward trend in the residential market next year, with price increases expected to be more pronounced, estimated at around 3-5% [1]. - Hong Kong Property anticipates further increases in both primary and secondary market transactions and prices next year, driven by sustained demand for self-use, rental, and short-term investment, with optimistic scenarios suggesting price increases of 10-15% [1]. Group 2: Additional Insights - Citi predicts that with continuous interest rate cuts in the U.S., alongside a notable recovery in rental prices and improved supply-demand dynamics, Hong Kong property prices are expected to rise by 5% next year [2].

Group 1 - The week will be shortened due to the holiday, impacting the release schedule of economic data [1] - Key economic data to be released includes home prices, construction spending, and manufacturing [1] - The Federal Reserve minutes from the December meeting will also be published, providing insights into monetary policy [1]

Economic Growth Outlook - Hong Kong's economy is projected to grow by 3.2% in 2025, slightly higher than earlier forecasts, marking the third consecutive year of growth [1] - Key drivers of economic growth include strong export performance, solid fixed capital investment, and a stable consumption environment [1] Asset Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has shown significant improvement, with an average daily trading volume of nearly 260 billion HKD in the first 11 months of the year [1] - Initial Public Offering (IPO) fundraising has reached over 270 billion HKD, ranking first globally, with four listings among the top ten new stocks worldwide [1] - Follow-up financing for listed companies exceeded 510 billion HKD during the same period [1] - Net inflow of funds into Securities and Futures Commission-recognized funds registered in Hong Kong surpassed 41 billion USD in the first nine months, more than 1.5 times last year's total [1] Real Estate Market Trends - The residential property market remains active, with nearly 57,000 transactions recorded in the first 11 months, a year-on-year increase of approximately 16% [2] - Residential property prices rose by about 3%, while rental prices increased by around 4%, with positive market sentiment regarding the residential sector [2] - The office market also showed improvement, with transaction volume increasing by 74% in the first ten months compared to the previous year, and a slight decrease in vacancy rates for Grade A offices [2] Export and Investment Performance - Overall exports from Hong Kong performed well in the first three quarters of the year, with fixed capital investment rising by 2.5% during the same period [2] - Private consumption increased by 0.9% in the first three quarters, reversing the decline seen in the same period last year, benefiting from the recovery in the asset market and improved market sentiment [2] Future Economic Development - The outlook for Hong Kong's economy remains positive, with expectations of continued momentum into 2026, coinciding with the start of the national "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] - Hong Kong aims to enhance its role as an international financial center, accelerate the development of a world-class innovation and technology hub, and improve its international trade center functions [2] - The integration into national development strategies is expected to yield better development outcomes for Hong Kong, creating more quality job opportunities and benefiting the public [2]