Economic Growth - Q3 GDP growth rate is 4.8% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 5.2% for the first three quarters, indicating resilience in the economy[3] - Industrial added value in September increased by 6.5% year-on-year, up from 5.2% in August, while the service production index remained stable at 5.6%[3] - Exports exceeded expectations with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% in September, compared to 4.3% in August, surpassing the consensus forecast of 5.9%[3] Demand and Investment - Domestic demand remains under pressure, with retail sales growth declining from 3.4% in August to 3.0% in September, below the expected 3.1%[3] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5%, down from a growth of 0.5% in August, indicating a weakening investment environment[3] - Real estate investment continues to struggle, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 13.9% in September, worsening from -12.9% in August[4] Price Pressure and Policy Implications - The GDP deflator index improved slightly from -1.3% in Q2 to -1.1% in Q3, reflecting a balance between downward price pressure and "anti-involution" policies[3] - The potential for monetary policy easing remains, with possibilities for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to stimulate demand[3] - Recent policy measures, including 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools and another 500 billion yuan in special bonds, are expected to boost investment growth[3] Consumer Behavior - Per capita income growth slowed from 5.1% in Q2 to 4.5% in Q3, with property income growth turning negative at -0.3%[4] - Per capita consumption growth also declined from 5.2% in Q2 to 3.4% in Q3, with a corresponding drop in consumption propensity to 68.1%[4] - Service consumption growth outpaced goods consumption, with service retail growth at 5.0% in Q3 compared to goods retail growth of only 3.6%[4]

中国海外发展(00688)发布公告，中海企业发展集团有限公司2022年度第五期中期票据，简称"22中海企 业MTN005"，发行总额为10亿元，本计息期债券利率:2.85%，将于2025年10月27日付息。 ...

9月1日，山东菏泽匹克房地产有限公司（下称"菏泽匹克"）登上了被执行人名单，合计金额还不到4万元（36669元）。随后福建匹克集团有限公司（下 称"匹克集团"）降薪的消息流传于网络。 匹克集团的实际控制人许景南，是福建知名富豪。《2024年胡润全球富豪榜》中，许景南财富达到135亿元，较2022年的70亿元几乎翻倍。就在爆出降薪之 前的9月8日，匹克集团董事长许景南还向泉州市慈善总会捐赠1亿元。 除了市场耳熟能详的匹克集团外，《财中社》注意到，许景南早已将投资触角伸向多个领域。从航空航天到房地产，从对外投资到小额贷款，许景南投资涉 及多个行业。就在2025年中，许景南旗下的公司开始陆续登上"老赖"名单，核心产业匹克集团也传来降薪风波。 许景南投资公司成"老赖"常客 天眼查工商信息显示，2025年8月6日，泊鹭通航产业集团有限公司（下称"泊鹭通航"）新增一条信息，公司首次被荆门市东宝区人民法院认定为被执行人， 即"老赖"，涉案金额3591万元。 泊鹭通航的主业是航空设备开发等，许景南是其二股东，持股22.87%。 也是在同一天，菏泽匹克登上被执行人名单，执行法院是菏泽市牡丹区人民法院。有意思的是，这家房地产公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the real estate industry [2]. Core Insights - The analysis focuses on the price trends of real estate in resource-based cities, particularly in lower-tier cities, highlighting the importance of these trends for understanding future price movements in similar urban areas [6][9]. - The report categorizes resource-based cities into four types: growth, mature, decline, and regeneration, based on their industrial positioning and development stages [9]. - From December 2015 to December 2024, the report indicates that growth-type cities experienced the highest average price increase of approximately 50%, while decline-type cities saw the smallest increase at around 15% [11]. - During the downturn period from December 2022 to December 2024, growth and decline-type cities maintained relatively stable prices with declines between -5% and -10%, while mature and regeneration-type cities experienced greater volatility with declines exceeding -10% [11]. - The report suggests that many cities have cleared previous price bubbles, with some lower-tier cities seeing prices revert to levels not seen since 2007 or earlier, indicating a potential new market phase [11][12]. Summary by Sections Resource-Based Cities Analysis - The report identifies 126 resource-based cities, accounting for about 48% of third-tier and lower cities, emphasizing their significance in price trend analysis [9]. - The classification of resource-based cities is based on the "National Resource-Based City Sustainable Development Plan (2013-2020)" [9]. Price Trends and Cycles - The report details the average price changes for second-hand homes in resource-based cities from December 2015 to December 2024, noting that growth-type cities had a price increase of 58% during the upcycle and a decrease of -5% during the downcycle [12]. - The average price changes for mature cities were 41% during the upcycle and -11% during the downcycle, while decline-type cities saw a 25% increase and an -8% decrease [12]. Market Outlook - The report concludes that the current real estate market in China is in a deep adjustment phase, with many cities having cleared previous price bubbles, suggesting a potential for a new market phase to begin [11][12].

Economic Growth - China's GDP growth rate for Q3 2023 is 4.8%, slightly above market expectations of 4.7%[2] - Nominal GDP growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7%[2] - Q3 quarter-on-quarter economic growth accelerated by 0.1 percentage points to 1.1%, exceeding the market expectation of 0.8%[2] Domestic Demand - September retail sales growth fell for the fourth consecutive month, decreasing from 3.4% in August to 3.0%[3] - Fixed asset investment showed a significant decline, turning negative at -0.5%, below the market expectation of 0.1%[5] - Cumulative urban residents' disposable income growth rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 4.4%[2] Industrial Production - Industrial production value growth rebounded by 1.3 percentage points to 6.5%, surpassing the market expectation of 5.0%[5] - Manufacturing production growth in September increased by 1.6 percentage points to 7.3%[5] External Trade - Exports in September rebounded by 3.9 percentage points to 8.3%, with a trade surplus maintained above $90 billion[7] - The trade conflict with the U.S. poses significant risks, with a 40% chance of renewed tariffs on Chinese goods by November 1[8] Policy Outlook - Limited economic stimulus measures are expected in Q4, with a forecasted GDP growth of around 5% for the year[9] - Monetary policy predictions include a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10-20 basis point interest rate reduction[10]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Daily average pig iron production and cement clinker capacity utilization rate marginally declined this week, while asphalt and float glass operating rates increased, and apparent demand for steel improved[1] - Polyester operating rates in textiles and weaving industries showed a marginal recovery, with both full steel and semi-steel tire operating rates rebounding[1] Group 2: Real Estate - New home sales area in 30 major cities decreased by 20.4% year-on-year as of October 17, but the decline rate improved by 10.8 percentage points compared to last week; the year-on-year decline for October so far is 25.4%[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.85% month-on-month as of October 6[1] Group 3: Domestic Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars from October 1-12 totaled 686,000 units, down 8% year-on-year, contrasting with a 6% increase in September[1] - Major home appliance retail sales decreased by 3.6% year-on-year as of October 10, showing a marginal recovery[1] - Domestic flight operations increased by 2.4% year-on-year as of October 17, but the growth rate slowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to last week[1] Group 4: External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 4.9% year-on-year as of October 12, while container throughput rose by 5.3% year-on-year[1] - The export container freight index for China fell by 4.1% week-on-week, but export freight rates in Shanghai and Ningbo showed a rapid increase[1] Group 5: Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Index dropped by 3.0%, with the black raw materials index down 1.4% and the non-ferrous metals index down 1.1% this week[1] - Rebar futures closed down 2.1%, while spot prices fell by 1.0%; coking coal futures rose by 1.6%, with Shanxi coking coal spot prices up 0.3%[1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong real estate market is stabilizing due to policy easing, declining interest rates, and talent attraction initiatives [1] - The full removal of additional stamp duties and other transaction barriers is expected in February 2024, alongside anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 [1] - The 1-month HIBOR has dropped significantly from 4.07% to 0.58%, and new mortgage rates have fallen below 3.5%, creating a "rent-to-mortgage" effect as rental yields exceed mortgage rates [1] - Over 220,000 new residents have been attracted to Hong Kong through talent introduction programs, contributing to housing demand [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's National Enterprises ETF (159519) tracks the mainland state-owned enterprises index (H11153), which includes a diverse range of state-owned companies from various economic sectors [1] - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of publicly listed state-owned enterprises in mainland China, showcasing strong representativeness and stability [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data shows that the production side is stable with a slight increase, the coke oven and PX operating rates decline, the tire operating rate rebounds significantly, and the asphalt operating rate is at a high level [1][31]. - The transaction volume of commercial housing and land supply area are generally at a low level, and seasonal improvement may occur in the near future [1][31]. - After the holiday, the number of executed flights decreases, while the subway passenger volume and congestion index in cities increase [1][31]. - The price trend is differentiated. Crude oil and rebar prices decline, while coking coal, copper, and aluminum prices rise. The overall price of agricultural products increases, but the prices of pork and eggs drop significantly [1][31]. - In the short term, focus on the incremental policies of the Fourth Plenary Session and the 14th Five - Year Plan, Sino - US trade policies, and the recovery of the real estate market [1][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Production: Rebar Production Continues to Decline, Tire Operating Rate Rebounds Significantly - Steel: The coke oven capacity utilization rate decreases by 0.96 pct, the blast furnace operating rate remains flat, and the rebar production decreases by 2.24 tons. The inventory of rebar also decreases by 7.7 tons [10]. - Petroleum asphalt: The operating rate increases by 1.3 pct and is at a relatively high level in recent years [10]. - Chemical industry: The PX operating rate decreases by 1.9 pct, while the PTA operating rate increases by 1.57 pct [10]. - Automobile tires: The operating rate rebounds significantly after the holiday. The all - steel tire operating rate increases by 20.56 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increases by 26.21 pct [11]. 2. Demand: Commercial Housing Transactions Increase Slightly at a Low Level, SCFI Rebounds Significantly - Real estate: The transaction area of commercial housing rebounds slightly at a low level, the inventory - to - sales ratio increases, the land supply area decreases, and the transaction premium rate of residential land decreases [14]. - Movie box office: In the week of October 5, it increases by 1.087 billion yuan compared with the previous week [14]. - Automobile: In the week of October 12, the daily average retail sales of manufacturers increase by 41,000 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increase by 46,000 vehicles [16]. - Shipping index: In the week of October 17, SCFI rebounds by 12.92%, CCFI decreases by 4.11%, and BDI increases by 6.87% [19]. 3. Prices: Crude Oil and Rebar Prices Decline, Coking Coal, Copper, and Aluminum Prices Rise - Energy: The Brent crude oil price drops by 2.3% to $61.29 per barrel [21]. - Coking coal: The futures price rises by 1.67% to 1,184.5 yuan per ton [21]. - Metals: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices change by +2.25%, +1.18%, and - 1.41% respectively compared with the previous week, and the domestic rebar futures price decreases by 1.96% [22]. - Agricultural products: The overall price increases, with the wholesale price index of agricultural products rising by 1.13%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits change by - 3.94%, - 4.45%, +2.42%, and +0.28% respectively compared with the previous week [24]. 4. Logistics: After the Holiday, Subway Passenger Volume and Urban Congestion Index Rebound Significantly, and the Number of Executed Flights Decreases Significantly - Subway passenger volume: In Beijing and Shanghai, it rebounds significantly after the holiday. The seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume increases by about 3.28 million person - times, and that of Shanghai increases by about 3.04 million person - times [27]. - Executed flights: After the holiday, the number of domestic and international executed flights decreases significantly. The seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) executed flights decreases by 10.22%, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) decreases by 5.8%, and that of international flights decreases by 4.44% [29]. - Urban traffic: The peak congestion index of first - tier cities rebounds significantly after the holiday, with the seven - day moving average increasing by 34.16% [29]. 5. Summary: Asphalt Operating Rate is at a High Level, Crude Oil and Pork Prices are Low The high - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production, demand, logistics, and prices. The production side is stable with a slight increase; the demand side is at a low level with potential seasonal improvement; the logistics situation shows a post - holiday adjustment; and the price trend is differentiated. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and the real estate market recovery [31].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Hang Seng Index recently fell to approximately 25,247 points, influenced by ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations and short-term impacts from tariff news. The medium to long-term outlook is expected to be more affected by fundamental and policy factors [11][12]. - The report highlights that the People's Bank of China maintained the 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.50% and the 1-year LPR at 3.00% in September, reflecting the market's digestion of risks related to recent antitrust laws, policies, regulations, and real estate debt in China [11][12]. - The report notes that the US President announced a 100% additional tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, which is expected to further impact market sentiment [11]. Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,247 points, down 641 points or 2.48%, with a total market turnover of HKD 314.6 billion. The H-share index fell to 9,011 points, down 247 points or 2.67% [12]. - The report provides a performance overview of major indices, with the Hang Seng Index showing a year-to-date increase of 25.9%, while the H-share index increased by 23.6% [3][4]. - The report lists the best and worst performing stocks within the Hang Seng Index, with Chow Tai Fook (1929) showing a significant year-to-date increase of 151.4%, while BYD Electronics (0285) experienced a decline of 8.5% [3]. Company Analysis: Nongfu Spring (9633.HK) - Nongfu Spring reported a half-year revenue of RMB 25.6 billion for the period ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.6%. Gross profit reached RMB 15.5 billion, up 18.6%, with a gross margin of 60.3%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points [26][27]. - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 7.62 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.2%, with basic earnings per share of RMB 0.677, also up 22.0% [26]. - Nongfu Spring's total assets were approximately RMB 64.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, while total liabilities rose to RMB 33 billion, up 58.2% [27]. - The report notes that the company's current market valuation is lower than its historical average, with a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 41.2, compared to a 5-year average of 53.1 [27]. New Stock Dynamics - The report outlines upcoming IPOs, including Guanghe Technology (638) and Dipu Technology (1384), with expected market interest due to their moderate to large fundraising scales [30][31]. - The report provides details on the expected pricing and market capitalizations for these new listings, indicating a positive market sentiment towards these offerings [30][31].

其中，北京、上海、广州和深圳分别下降2.7%、2.4%、6.0%和1.7%。二、三线城市二手住宅销售价格 同比分别下降5.%和5.7%，降幅分别收窄0.2个和0.3个百分点。 北京商报讯（记者 王寅浩 李晗）10月20日，国家统计局发布2025年9月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价 格变动情况显示，一线城市二手住宅销售价格同比下降3.2%，降幅比上月收窄0.3个百分点。 ...