摘要 政策风向：城市更新顶层设计持续强化，各地城市更新实践持续深入。自然资源部、住建部发布《关于进一步支持城市更新行动若干措施的通知》，对拟 实施城市更新区域的详细规划进行评估、优化。2024年全国城市更新项目数量60015个，完成总投资额2.9万亿元。城镇老旧小区改造、城中村改造及地下 管网改造等是城市更新重要内容。 境内宏观：2026年1月份，制造业PMI为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，不及近年同期平均水平，降幅强于季节性。展望2026年，财政部表态确保总体 支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"，预计宏观政策更加积极有为，托底总需求。 境外宏观：凯文·沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席，他主张是"降息+缩表"，认为美联储需要为通胀负责。他的政策主张在维持美联储独立性和向特朗普表 衷心之间能够实现更好的平衡。1月美联储按兵不动符合预期，预计2026年或仍有2-3次降息。1月FOMC会议美联储对经济、就业和通胀都表现出了更乐 观的态度，这为重启降息增加了不确定性。 城市更新顶层设计持续强化 观点： 城市更新顶层设计持续强化，各地城市更新实践持续深入，有望成为着力稳定房地产市场和扩大内需的重要抓手。 ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 中电联口径截至1月22日，纳入统计的发电集团燃煤电厂本月累计发电量同比增长4.6%（去年12月同比为-8.5%）。 春节错位可能是关键影响因素之一，去年春节在1月底；而今年春节在2月中下旬，1月企业普遍处于正常开工状态。这也预示 着今年1月其他同比经济数据会相对比较有利。 第三， 重点企业粗钢产量环比回升，同比降幅收窄。截至1月20日，全国重点企业粗钢日均产量（月度日均，下同）环比回升 11.3% ， 同 比 回 落 4.5% （ 前 值 -8.8% ） ； 截 至 1 月 30 日 ， 主 要 钢 厂 螺 纹 钢 产 量 环 比 回 升 6.4% ， 同 比 回 升 1.0% （ 前 值-16.4%）；主要钢厂热轧卷板产量月环比回升1.5%，同比回落1.8%（前值-3.9%）。 第四， 实物工作量暂未起势，资金到位率徘徊。截至1月27日，样本工地资金到位率环比回落0.2pct，非房建、房建资金到位 率环比录得-0.4、0.4pct。截至1月28日，石油沥青开工率（月均值，下同）环比回落2.2pct，同 ...

"预见2026：李稻葵开年经济大家谈"于2月2日举行。知名经济学家李稻葵表示，房地产是个机遇，自 住的可以考虑了。 "预见2026：李稻葵开年经济大家谈"于2月2日举行。知名经济学家李稻葵表示，房地产是个机遇，自 住的可以考虑了。 "如果你是想买房子，真正给自己住的，现在以考虑了，不是租的房子，自己住的房子，相当于找太太 要长期考虑房子合不合适。"他说。 新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。 责任编辑：李思阳 "如果你是想买房子，真正给自己住的，现在以考虑了，不是租的房子，自己住的房子，相当于找太太 要长期考虑房子合不合适。"他说。 新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。 责任编辑：李思阳 ...

策略研究 · 策略专题 2025 年业绩预告有哪些线索值得关注？ 2026 年 02 月 02 日 核心观点 分析师 杨超 ：010-80927696 ：yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 王雪莹 ：（010）80927721 ：wangxueying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525060003 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 周美丽 ：zhoumeili_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525070002 相关研究 2026-01-23，公募基金 2025 年四季度持仓有哪些 看点？ 2026-01-06，如何理解"非理性繁荣"下的"理性 泡沫" ？——AI 泡沫系列研究之总量篇 2025-12-28，节奏看"水"，集中靠"质"——2026 年港股市场投资展望 2025-12-11，2025 年 12 月中央经济工作会议对投 资的启示：向新向优 2025-12-08，12 月中央政 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In January, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.5 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises had PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, down 1.1 and 1.2 percentage points respectively, both below the critical point [3] - The production index was 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production [3] - The new orders index was 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [3] - The raw materials inventory index was 47.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, indicating a continued decrease in major raw material inventories [3] - The employment index was 48.1%, down 0.1 percentage points, reflecting a slight decline in employment conditions within manufacturing [3] - The supplier delivery time index was 50.1%, down 0.1 percentage points, indicating that supplier delivery times continued to accelerate [4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In January, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [6] - The construction industry business activity index was 48.8%, down 4.0 percentage points, while the service industry business activity index was 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points [8] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.1%, down 1.2 percentage points, indicating a decline in market demand [13] - The input prices index was 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points, indicating stable input prices for non-manufacturing enterprises [13] - The sales prices index was 48.8%, up 0.8 percentage points, suggesting a narrowing decline in sales prices [13] - The employment index was 46.1%, stable from the previous month, indicating stable employment conditions in non-manufacturing [13] - The business activity expectation index was 56.0%, down 0.5 percentage points, remaining in a high optimism range [14] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Overview - In January, the Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 49.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, indicating a general slowdown in production and business activities compared to the previous month [18]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is gradually stabilizing after previous adjustments, with opportunities for structural recovery in sectors that are relatively undervalued and have clear fundamentals or expectations [1][6] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Fund Behavior - The wide-based ETF is facing redemption pressure, indicating that institutional funds have not significantly increased their allocation to index-weighted sectors [3] - Market risk appetite has not broadly increased but shows clear structural differentiation, with funds favoring sectors with valuation recovery potential rather than simply returning to blue-chip stocks [3][4] - The consumption chain is identified as a clear allocation direction, with the period leading up to the "Two Sessions" being a critical window for increasing exposure to this sector [4][5] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The consumption chain's performance is not a broad-based rally but exhibits structural characteristics, with some sectors having already recovered valuations and being sensitive to short-term data [4] - The real estate chain is also gaining attention, with some sectors becoming desensitized to new construction data, shifting focus to policy support and industry clearing processes [4][5] - Historical trends suggest that the recovery in the real estate chain typically progresses from downstream to upstream, with current strength in building materials driven by valuation recovery and expectation improvement rather than a comprehensive demand rebound [4][6] Group 3: Strategic Insights - Current market conditions present opportunities, particularly in sectors that are relatively undervalued and have clear logic, which are more likely to achieve excess returns during fund rotation [5] - The period around the "Two Sessions" remains a significant window for policy and expectation, with active trading around macro goals and industry policy directions [5][6] - The transition from "emotional recovery" to "structural validation" is crucial, with the consumption and building materials sectors forming key components of the current market narrative [6]

智通财经APP讯，旭辉控股集团(00884)发布公告，第一次定期强制转换记录日期已于2026年1月29日发 生，该日期为发行日期起计一个月后的日历日。根据信托契据，若2026年1月29日或之前累计已转换的 强制可转换债券本金总额未超过强制可转换债券本金额的20%(相当于约8.15亿美元)，则将触发定期强 制转换，部分强制可转换债券将被强制转换。鉴于于2026年1月29日或之前实际已转换的强制可转换债 券本金总额已超过8.15亿美元，因此就第一次定期强制转换记录日期而言，不会发生定期强制转换。 ...

旭辉控股集团(00884)发布公告，第一次定期强制转换记录日期已于2026年1月29日发生，该日期为发行 日期起计一个月后的日历日。根据信托契据，若2026年1月29日或之前累计已转换的强制可转换债券本 金总额未超过强制可转换债券本金额的20%(相当于约8.15亿美元)，则将触发定期强制转换，部分强制 可转换债券将被强制转换。鉴于于2026年1月29日或之前实际已转换的强制可转换债券本金总额已超过 8.15亿美元，因此就第一次定期强制转换记录日期而言，不会发生定期强制转换。 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.32%, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.18% [1] - Significant declines were observed in gold and base metals, with oil, gas, coal, chemicals, and steel sectors also experiencing notable drops [1] - Agriculture, semiconductors, and real estate sectors showed considerable declines [1] Sector Highlights - The ultra-high voltage concept stocks rose against the trend, with active movements in the liquor, cultivated diamond, and AI application sectors [1] - In the ETF market, the New Economy ETF from Yinhua and the Education ETF from Bosera increased by 4.73% and 4% respectively [1] - The electric grid equipment sector saw strong gains, with ETFs from Huaxia, Guangfa, and Guotai rising by 2.72%, 2.28%, and 2.23% respectively [1] - The food and beverage sector also performed well, with the liquor ETF from Penghua and the food and beverage ETF from Huabao increasing by 1.85% and 1.55% respectively [1] - The photovoltaic sector was active, with the photovoltaic ETF from Yifangda rising by 1.15% [1] Declines in Specific Sectors - The metals sector faced a wave of limit-downs, with gold stock ETFs such as ICBC, gold stocks ETF, and gold stock ETF hitting the limit down [1] - The semiconductor sector experienced a downturn, with the China-Korea semiconductor ETF dropping by 7% [1]

有人的地方就有江湖，有金钱的地方就有喜忧。 最近贵金属的价格像过山车一样跌宕起伏，相信关注的朋友都深有体会。 25年下半年截至到新年1月29日前，黄金都是一路高歌，屡次刷新记录， 然而1月30日进入黑色星期五，现货黄金单日暴跌9.25%，创1983年以来最大跌幅，盘中一度崩跌12.92%，从前期高位5627美元/盎司砸到4682美元； 现货白银更狠，从122美元的高点腰斩式触及74.28美元/盎司。 全球贵金属市场一夜蒸发超3.4万亿美元，相当于整个加密货币市场的总市值。 22万投资者爆仓，总金额超9亿美元，有人一夜之间本金归零，有人毕生积蓄打了水漂。 无独有偶，曾经辉煌的房地产也是在泡沫破裂后黯然退场，无数人血本无归。 于是不少人开始追问：以后的黄金，会成为以前的房子吗？ 二者虽有表面的相似性，更有本质的差异，而这些差异恰恰决定了黄金难以复刻房产曾经的投资路径。 黄金与房子的相似之处，集中在"保值"与"周期"的表象上。 抛开市场的大起大落不谈，我们先来看看黄金和房产的定位。 黄金作为金融与避险资产，其价值基础是全球信用和避险需求。 目前，全球央行购金（"再货币化"）、地缘政治风险是主要驱动力。 房子是居住与 ...