Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Domestic policies for boosting service consumption and real - estate are being advanced, but their effects remain to be seen; the US manufacturing PMI shows marginal improvement, and attention should be paid to US employment and inflation data, as well as the global credit "crisis" hype [2] - The core contradiction of the RMB exchange rate lies in the rhythm control; short - term return to the "6 era" is less likely, and it is more likely to gradually repair towards a reasonable equilibrium [4] - Global debt risks weaken market risk appetite, and the stock index may enter a short - term shock adjustment phase [5] - The bond market may rebound if the A - share market remains high - level volatile; a band - trading strategy is recommended for bonds [6] - The shipping index may fluctuate or decline slightly, considering the downward trend of Maersk's new - week opening quotes [8] - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and remain strong in the short - term; a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11] - Copper may continue to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision; a low - level procurement strategy is recommended for the medium - term [13][14] - Zinc is expected to be strong at the bottom and fluctuate in the short - term [16] - Nickel and stainless - steel markets' sentiment has cooled; stainless - steel has upward momentum, and attention should be paid to the fundamentals [17] - Tin may remain strong despite a slight decline, supported by tight supply [18][19] - The lithium carbonate market is in a shock - adjustment phase; its future trend depends on downstream actual demand [20] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a high - level shock state; industrial silicon may rise in the long - term due to the dry - season impact, and polysilicon's shock pattern may continue [22] - Lead is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range with limited upside and downside [24] - Steel products' fundamentals are weak; the downward space of iron ore is limited; coal - coke may fluctuate widely at a high level; silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [25][27][29][30] - Crude oil is affected by geopolitical factors; it is in a weak shock state, and attention should be paid to the September events and the Russia - Ukraine situation [33] - LPG is expected to fluctuate, affected by multiple factors such as the OPEC+ meeting [36] - PX - TA is expected to fluctuate with the cost; a strategy of narrowing the PTA01 processing fee is recommended [39] - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate within a range; a strategy of buying on dips or selling put options is recommended [42] - Methanol's port inventory is increasing; a small - amount long - position and selling put - option strategy is recommended [44][45] - PP's future trend depends on downstream demand growth; currently, its upward and downward drivers are limited [48] - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand; it is expected to fluctuate at present [50] - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to fluctuate weakly; short - term short - selling of styrene is not recommended [51][52] - Fuel oil is pushed by cost; its downward pressure remains; low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for long - position allocation; asphalt mainly follows cost fluctuations; rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly [53][54][56] - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand; glass is in a weak - balance to weak - surplus state; caustic soda's downstream demand is increasing and its inventory is decreasing [59][61][62] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Global long - term bonds had a "black September"; the US manufacturing PMI showed marginal improvement, with new orders improving and the price index falling again [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated; the pound fell sharply; the US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected [3] Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated with volume; global debt risks weakened market risk appetite; the index may enter a shock - adjustment phase [5] Treasury Bond - Treasury bonds weakened; the bond market may rebound if the A - share market remains high - level volatile; a band - trading strategy is recommended [6] Container Shipping - The container shipping index futures prices rose; MSC planned to cancel some voyages; the index may fluctuate or decline [7][8] Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose; long - term funds increased their holdings; key data and events this week are worthy of attention; a long - position strategy is recommended [9][10][11] Copper - Copper prices were slightly stronger; the price may oscillate before the Fed's interest - rate decision; a low - level procurement strategy is recommended [12][13][14] Zinc - Zinc prices were strong at the bottom; the supply was in surplus, and the demand might improve; a short - term shock - at - bottom view is held [16] Nickel and Stainless - Steel - Nickel prices fell slightly, and stainless - steel prices were strong; the market sentiment cooled; stainless - steel had upward momentum [17] Tin - Tin prices fell slightly; the supply was tight, and the price may remain strong [18][19] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices fell; the market entered a shock - adjustment phase; the future trend depends on downstream demand [19][20] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices were in a high - level shock; industrial silicon may rise in the long - term, and polysilicon may continue to shock [21][22] Lead - Lead prices fluctuated within a narrow range; the supply was weak, and the demand was in a "not - booming in peak - season" state [24] Black Building Materials Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Steel products' prices were in short - term equilibrium; the supply was high, and the demand was weak; the market may be in a negative - feedback stage [25] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rebounded; the steel industry was in a weak - stable state; the iron ore's downward space may be limited [27] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices oscillated; the supply was relatively loose; the future trend depends on downstream demand [29] Silicon - Iron and Silicon - Manganese - Silicon - iron and silicon - manganese prices were at the bottom; the supply was loose, and the demand was weak; a long - spread strategy is recommended [30][31] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose; geopolitical factors affected the price; the oil market was in a weak shock state [32][33] LPG - LPG prices fluctuated; the supply was loose, and the demand was stable; the future trend depends on the OPEC+ meeting [35][36] PTA - PX - PX and PTA prices fluctuated with the cost; the supply of PX may increase, and the PTA processing fee is recommended to be narrowed [37][39] MEG - Bottle Chip - Ethylene glycol prices fell; the supply may decrease slightly, and the demand was seasonal; a range - trading strategy is recommended [41][42] Methanol - Methanol prices were stable; the port inventory increased; a long - position strategy is recommended [43][44][45] PP - PP prices fell slightly; the supply increased, and the demand was uncertain; the future trend depends on downstream demand [47][48] PE - PE prices fell slightly; the supply decreased, and the demand increased; the market may oscillate [49][50] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene and styrene prices fell; the supply and demand of pure benzene were balanced, and styrene's supply may increase in the future; a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [51][52] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices rose; the supply increased, and the demand was stable; the price may be suppressed by the spot market [53][54] Asphalt - Asphalt prices rose and then fell; the supply was stable, and the demand was affected by rain; the price mainly followed the cost [55][56] Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - Rubber prices were strong; the supply may increase, and the demand may turn warm; the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [57][58] Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices fell slightly; the supply was high, and the demand was weak; glass prices fell slightly; the supply may increase, and the demand was weak; caustic soda prices fell; the supply decreased slightly, and the demand increased [59][61][62]

Group 1 - The company, Hunan Silver, announced a share buyback of 10 million shares, representing 0.35% of its total share capital of approximately 2.823 billion shares, with a total transaction amount of about 47.2 million yuan [1] - The highest transaction price during the buyback was 4.91 yuan per share, while the lowest was 4.47 yuan per share [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company's revenue composition was entirely from non-ferrous metal smelting, accounting for 100% [1] Group 2 - As of the report, Hunan Silver's market capitalization stood at 17.9 billion yuan [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is almost certain, combined with the expectation of the domestic traditional off - season turning into the peak season, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory remaining at a low level, which may lead to a relatively strong upward trend in the Shanghai copper price. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,780, up 370 from the previous trading day; the trading volume was 78,481 lots, an increase of 7,420; the open interest was 180,644 lots, an increase of 6,818; the inventory was 20,200 tons, a decrease of 1,212 [2]. - **SMM 1 Electrolytic Copper Average Price**: On September 1, 2025, it was 79,900, up 510 from the previous trading day [2]. - **LME 3 - month Copper Futures**: On September 1, 2025, the closing price (electronic trading) was 9,884, down 18 from the previous trading day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 158,875 tons, a decrease of 158,875 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On August 29, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 4.585, up 0.08 from the previous trading day; the total inventory was 277,843 tons, an increase of 4,076 [2]. Industry News - **Consumption**: Although the copper foil operating rate has been objectively high recently, limited by low consumer demand, it has limited support for the operating rate recovery of refined copper rod enterprises. In August, as the steel rod operating rate declined, the substitution effect of refined copper rod consumption was more obvious in Jiangxi enterprises, while enterprises in other regions did not feel obvious improvement [2]. - **Production**: In August, the domestic electrolytic copper output decreased slightly by 0.28 tons. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will significantly decline, and the expansion of some enterprises directly producing electrolytic copper from scrap copper will also decrease. SMM expects that the electrolytic copper output in September will drop significantly by 5.25 tons and remain at a low level in October [2]. - **Projects**: The floating pontoon pumping station and return water system, a key supporting project of the expansion project of Mirador Copper Mine under Tongling Non - Ferrous Metals, have completed the overall commissioning, marking a solid step towards full - scale completion and production [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Scrap Copper**: European high - quality scrap copper is restricted from export, and due to the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff negotiations, direct imports of US scrap copper by traders are sluggish. The negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper weakens the economy of scrap copper. The scrap copper import window is gradually opening, and the domestic scrap copper production (import) volume in September may decrease month - on - month, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation [2]. - **Refined Copper**: Domestic smelters' smelting and maintenance capacity in September may increase month - on - month, and the domestic refined copper production (import) volume in September may decrease (increase) month - on - month. Some new projects are expected to be put into production in the future, which may affect the domestic electrolytic copper production volume in September [2]. Investment Strategy - Hold previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (77,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 81,000), London copper (9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200), and US copper (4.0 - 4.2 and 4.6 - 5.0) [2].

司时这些信息的准确性和差整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、精准和建议 仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行规资投资所造成的一切后果,本公司概不负责。（风险提示；助市有风险 2 市需谨慎） 研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 数据米源:SMM W 镍与不锈钢日评20250902:宏观反复,驱动不足 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-08-25 | 2025-09-01 | 2025-08-29 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 收盘价 | 123220.00 | 120070.00 | 期货近月合约 | 121450.00 | 1,770.00 | 3 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 123450.00 | 121700.00 | 120310.00 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the macro - financial area, the policy is favorable to the capital market, but short - term fluctuations may occur. In the commodity market, different industries have different supply - demand relationships and price trends, affected by factors such as macro - economy, industry policies, and seasonal factors [3][25]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Index Futures - News includes China's initiatives in AI cooperation, new energy vehicle delivery data, and EU's stance on tariffs. The trading logic is that the policy supports the capital market, and the general direction is to buy on dips, although short - term fluctuations may intensify [2][3]. - The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contracts are provided [3]. Treasury Bonds - On Monday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all rose. News includes the SCO summit and Hong Kong's development in green finance. The strategy is that under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and loose funds, interest rates may decline, but the bond market may fluctuate in the short term [4][6]. Precious Metals - The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver have different trends. With the expected Fed rate cuts, precious metal prices are expected to rise, especially silver, and the gold - silver ratio may decline. It is recommended to buy silver on dips [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - After reaching a high, copper prices fell back. The LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased. With the high probability of Fed rate cuts and tight raw material supply, copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [9]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices fluctuated. The domestic inventory increased, and the demand showed marginal improvement. With the Fed's dovish signal, if the inventory turns around, aluminum prices may rise more strongly [11]. Zinc - Zinc prices showed a low - level shock pattern. Zinc concentrate is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, and the downstream demand is weak. Although the Fed rate cut expectation is high, the industry is in an oversupply situation [12]. Lead - Lead prices are expected to be strong. The lead concentrate inventory is decreasing, and the supply is narrowing. Although the downstream demand is weak, the Fed rate cut expectation is high [13][14]. Nickel - In the short term, the macro - environment is positive, and the nickel price is expected to be supported. The nickel ore price is stable, and the prices of nickel - iron and intermediate products are expected to be strong. It is recommended to buy on dips [15][16]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to be volatile. The supply is decreasing significantly due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, while the demand is in the off - season [17]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices are in a weak adjustment. With the approaching peak season of the lithium - battery industry, attention should be paid to overseas supply. The risk of a sharp decline in prices is small [18][19]. Alumina - After a sharp decline, the downward space of alumina futures prices is limited. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices rose. With the approaching traditional consumption peak season, the demand is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be supported [21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices may be high. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, the cost is supportive, and the market activity is increasing [22]. Black Building Materials Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends. The overall demand for steel is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the steel price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand and cost support [24][25]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The overseas shipment is increasing, the demand is affected by blast furnace maintenance, and the inventory situation is complex [26][27]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and follow the macro - sentiment in the long term. Soda ash prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and the price center may rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [28][29]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are weak. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative positions. The black sector may be under pressure in the future [30][32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weakly volatile. The supply pressure is greater than the demand support. Polysilicon prices are in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern and are highly volatile [34][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to be strong in the short term. The mid - term view is bullish. The opening rates of tire enterprises show different trends, and the inventory situation is complex [38][39]. Crude Oil - Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the oil price is undervalued. It is recommended to maintain a long - position view but not to chase the high price [40]. Methanol - Methanol supply pressure is increasing, and the market is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. Urea - Urea is in a situation of low valuation and weak drive. It is recommended to buy on dips [42]. Styrene - The BZN spread has room for upward repair. After the inventory de - stocking inflection point, the styrene price may rebound [43]. PVC - PVC has a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to short on rallies [45]. Ethylene Glycol - The supply of ethylene glycol is still excessive, and the mid - term inventory may accumulate. The valuation may decline [46]. PTA - The supply of PTA is in a de - stocking pattern, and the demand is improving. It is recommended to follow PX and buy on dips [47][48]. p - Xylene - The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance. It is recommended to follow crude oil and buy on dips in the peak season [49]. Polyethylene (PE) - PE prices may oscillate upward. The cost is supportive, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand may increase in the peak season [50]. Polypropylene (PP) - PP has a situation of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips for the LL - PP2601 contract [51]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Pig prices may rise today. The supply in September may be weak, but there are potential supports. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the low - level rebound [53]. Eggs - Egg prices are mostly stable. The supply pressure is dominant. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month contract and use the far - month reverse spread strategy [54]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The cost of soybean imports is weak and stable. Domestic soybean meal may enter the de - stocking stage in September. It is recommended to buy on dips in the low - cost range [55][56]. Oils and Fats - Oils and fats prices are expected to be oscillated and strong. The fundamentals support the price center, and the palm oil may rise in the fourth quarter [57][58]. Sugar - Sugar prices are in a downward view. The domestic supply may increase, and the price depends on the external market [59][61]. Cotton - Cotton prices are expected to be volatile at a high level. The downstream consumption may improve in the peak season, and the current inventory is low [62].

Core Viewpoint - Company is actively advancing its nickel and cobalt resource development and refining projects, with plans to double its production capacity by 2028, while also optimizing costs in its lithium and copper businesses [2][3][12]. Nickel and Cobalt Resource Development and Refining - The company has three major projects in progress: the Bomara project (61.5% ownership), the Lofat area project (4,000 tons capacity), and the Waku wet process project (6,000 tons capacity), with total nickel-cobalt refining capacity expected to reach 360,000 tons by 2028 [2]. - The company is adjusting the process of its 45,000-ton high-pressure acid leaching project in Indonesia to improve profitability, shifting from a multi-step process to direct processing into liquid stainless steel due to current losses [2]. Lithium Business - The company's lithium business in Zimbabwe has an initial cost of approximately 67,000-68,000 RMB/ton, which is expected to decrease to below 60,000 RMB/ton as new projects come online [3]. - The projected lithium carbonate output for 2025 is 26,000 tons, with a target of 60,000-80,000 tons for 2026, potentially increasing to 120,000 tons if lithium prices are favorable [3]. - A lithium sulfate project is set to be completed by the end of 2025, with production ramping up in early 2026, although it will not fully meet the raw material needs for the planned lithium carbonate output [3]. Copper Business in the Democratic Republic of Congo - The company has a current copper refining capacity of 100,000 tons, with an expected output of 80,000-90,000 tons in 2025, relying on external purchases after its own mines are depleted [5]. - To address power shortages, the company plans to build a 28 MW solar and storage project in the DRC, which is expected to significantly reduce electricity costs and increase profitability [5]. Energy Metal Price Outlook - Nickel prices are currently at a bottom cost line of $15,000-$16,000/ton, with limited upward movement expected due to government regulations in Indonesia [7]. - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise due to tight supply and low inventory levels, with the company benefiting from its 12,000 tons of cobalt rights [8]. - The reasonable price for lithium carbonate is around 80,000 RMB/ton, with limited room for significant price increases [9]. Financial and Capital Expenditure - The company plans to invest approximately 10 billion RMB annually, focusing on key projects in Indonesia and resource acquisition [11]. - The financing cost is low at 3.6%-3.7%, with a manageable leverage ratio, and the company is encouraging the conversion of convertible bonds to reduce interest expenses [11]. - The company aims to maintain a stable cash flow to cover most capital expenditures, with a target of achieving a net profit of 700-800 million RMB annually from its copper business [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry experienced a 5.4% increase in stock price, reaching 71.39 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 790 million CNY and a turnover rate of 6.67%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 21.04 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry Co., Ltd. is located in Ganzhou, Jiangxi Province, and was established on March 26, 2004, with its listing date on March 17, 2022. The company specializes in the production and sales of hazardous chemicals, fertilizers, non-ferrous metal smelting, basic chemical raw materials, recycling of used power batteries for electric vehicles, and various construction materials [1] - The main revenue composition of the company includes cobalt products (47.56%), copper products (44.39%), and other products (8.05%) [1] Fund Holdings - Silver Hua Fund has a significant holding in Tengyuan Cobalt Industry, with its Silver Hua Growth Mixed Fund (161838) increasing its stake by 24,000 shares in the second quarter, holding a total of 293,800 shares, which accounts for 5.87% of the fund's net value, ranking as the seventh largest holding [2] - The fund has a current size of 266 million CNY and has achieved a year-to-date return of 14.98%, ranking 4849 out of 8254 in its category, while its one-year return stands at 49.21%, ranking 2624 out of 8037 [2] Fund Manager Performance - The fund managers of Silver Hua Growth Mixed Fund are Liu Hui and Wang Ligang. Liu Hui has been in position for 8 years and 173 days, managing assets totaling 3.159 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 100.58% and the worst being -25.53% [3] - Wang Ligang has been in position for 5 years and 247 days, managing assets of 3.281 billion CNY, with the best return of 14.4% and the same worst return of -25.53% during his tenure [3]

Group 1: Financial Futures - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Domestic prop - up policies are gradually exerting force. Promoting service consumption policies in September and real - estate policies are advancing. Overseas, the US economy shows resilience. The final effects of domestic policies need further observation, and attention should be paid to upcoming US economic data [1][2] - **Summary by Related Catalogs**: - **Macroeconomics**: Policies are being promoted both domestically and overseas. In China, service and real - estate policies are advancing, and manufacturing PMI slightly rebounds. In the US, economic data shows resilience, and there are tariff - related legal issues [1] - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The depreciation pressure of the RMB against the US dollar is slowing. In the short - term, it's about the rhythm of appreciation and has a low probability of returning to the "6 era". In the medium - term, it needs a decline in the US dollar index and improvement in the domestic economy [3][4][5] - **Stock Index**: After the release of two major data over the weekend, the market is expected to be volatile, with large - cap stock indices relatively stronger. It is recommended to hold long positions [7] - **Treasury Bonds**: After the release of August's manufacturing PMI, the bond market is not sensitive to fundamental data. If the stock market fluctuates at a high level, the bond market may rebound; otherwise, it may test the bottom again. It is recommended to take small - band bottom - fishing strategies [8][9] - **Container Shipping**: The decline in ONE's European - line spot cabin quotes is negative for futures prices. However, the ruling that Trump's global tariffs are illegal is positive for the global trade environment and EC prices. EC may show an oscillating or oscillating - upward trend [10][11] Group 2: Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and influencing factors. For example, precious metals are affected by Fed rate - cut expectations and Fed independence concerns; copper is in a state of multi - factor balance; aluminum is affected by macro and fundamental factors [12][16][20] - **Summary by Related Catalogs**: - **Gold & Silver**: The price is mainly affected by Fed rate - cut expectations and Fed independence concerns. In the short - term, it is expected to be strong. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold existing long positions [12][13][15] - **Copper**: Before the Fed's next rate decision on September 19, copper prices may continue to oscillate. In the fourth quarter, it is recommended to buy at low levels. The price is affected by multiple factors such as Fed rate cuts, supply and demand [16][17][18] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: - **Aluminum**: In the short - term, it is oscillating and bullish, but there is pressure above. It is recommended to build positions in batches on dips [20] - **Alumina**: It is weakly oscillating, with insufficient upward drive and limited downward space [21] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is oscillating and bullish, and can consider arbitrage operations [22] - **Zinc**: It is currently at the bottom and oscillating strongly in the short - term [22][23] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The market is oscillating this week, affected by macro and market factors. Nickel is expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan, and stainless steel between 12,500 - 13,100 yuan [23][26] - **Tin**: The price increase is driven by tight supply. It is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term, with a target price of 276,000 yuan per ton [27][28] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures market is expected to enter an oscillating and sorting stage. It is recommended to gradually close short positions and wait and see [29][31] - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [32][34] - **Polysilicon**: It is expected to be oscillating and bullish due to industry integration expectations [33][35] - **Lead**: It is oscillating narrowly, with limited upward and downward space [36] Ferrous Metals - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The ferrous metal market is generally under pressure. Steel products have a weak supply - demand pattern, and iron ore has increasing risks, while coal - coke and ferroalloys also face different challenges [38][40][43] - **Summary by Related Catalogs**: - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply - demand pattern of steel products is weak, and a negative feedback mechanism may form. It is recommended to maintain a bearish strategy and pay attention to demand in the peak season and policy changes [38][39] - **Iron Ore**: Although the current fundamentals are stable, the pressure on steel inventory and iron ore shipments is increasing, and the risk of price decline is rising [40][41] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market may oscillate widely at a high level, and coke may face price cuts after the parade. It is recommended to use an oscillating strategy for coking coal and consider selling hedging for coke [42][43] - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The supply is loose, and they are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to consider a long - spread strategy for the two [44][45] Energy and Chemicals - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Different energy and chemical products have different market trends. Crude oil is oscillating weakly, and other products such as LPG, PTA - PX, etc. are affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [46][53][55] - **Summary by Related Catalogs**: - **Crude Oil**: It is oscillating weakly. In September, there are negative factors such as seasonal decline in demand, and it is necessary to pay attention to key events and the Russia - Ukraine situation [46][48][49] - **LPG**: The market is oscillating. Supply is controllable, and demand changes little. The market is affected by multiple factors [50][51][52] - **PTA - PX**: The market is affected by supply - side news, and it is recommended to reduce the TA processing margin on rallies [53][54][55] - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The fundamentals of ethylene glycol are driven weakly, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range and consider option strategies in the long - term [56][58][59] - **Methanol**: It is under pressure. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions and sold put options and pay attention to Iranian shipments and port pick - up [60][61] - **PP**: The demand situation is unclear. The supply is increasing, and the future depends on whether the demand can maintain high - speed growth [62][63][64] - **PE**: The demand is recovering but not strong enough to drive. It is expected to be in an oscillating pattern and wait for a demand signal [65][66] - **PVC**: The price returns to the industrial level. With weak fundamentals, it is recommended to maintain a short - position allocation [67][68] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: For pure benzene, the supply is stable, demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. For styrene, inventory is increasing, and the outlook is bearish [69][70][71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The macro - market may continue to trade on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, with a favorable atmosphere, but concerns about the Fed's independence will limit the upward space. The current market supply is stable, and the focus is on the demand performance during the consumption peak season. Currently, there is some restocking at low prices, but large - scale restocking has not formed, and the inventory has not entered continuous destocking. Technically, Shanghai Aluminum has reached the upper limit of the recent oscillation range. Without a trend - setting macro - guidance or a clear fundamental orientation, the market is expected to remain in a wait - and - see state, and Shanghai Aluminum will continue to oscillate favorably [2][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/29 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Aluminum 3 - month | 2622 | 2619 | - 3.0 | yuan/ton | | SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three | 20560 | 20715 | 155.0 | dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Aluminum Ratio | 7.8 | 7.9 | 0.1 | | | LME Spot Premium | 2.07 | 2.98 | 0.9 | dollars/ton | | LME Aluminum Inventory | 479525 | 481050 | 1525.0 | tons | | SHFE Aluminum Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 57144 | 58629 | 1485.0 | tons | | Spot Average Price | 20604 | 20772 | 168.0 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium/Discount | 30 | - 30 | - 60.0 | yuan/ton | | Southern Reserve Spot Average Price | 20562 | 20712 | 150.0 | yuan/ton | | Shanghai - Guangdong Price Difference | 42 | 60 | 18.0 | yuan/ton | | Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory | 59.6 | 62 | 2.4 | tons | | Theoretical Average Cost of Electrolytic Aluminum | 16628.88 | 16581.41 | - 47.5 | yuan/ton | | Weekly Average Profit of Electrolytic Aluminum | 3975.12 | 4190.59 | 215.5 | yuan/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - **Macro - aspect**: Trump's dismissal of Cook raised concerns about the Fed's independence. The US Q2 real GDP annualized revised value increased by 3.3% quarter - on - quarter, higher than the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3%. The Q2 core PCE price index annualized revised value increased by 2.5% quarter - on - quarter, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected 2.6%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 229,000. The eurozone economic sentiment index in August dropped to 95.2. In China, Shanghai introduced real - estate new policies, and the year - on - year decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in July narrowed [4] - **Consumption end**: The domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7% week - on - week, but the order recovery degree of each segment varied, and the short - term downstream operating rate may still rise slowly [5] - **Inventory aspect**: On August 28, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 620,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from last Thursday; the aluminum rod inventory was 134,000 tons, an increase of 9,500 tons from last Thursday [5] 3.3 Market Outlook The macro - market may continue to trade on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, with a favorable atmosphere, but concerns about the Fed's independence will limit the upward space. The current market supply is stable, and the focus is on the demand performance during the consumption peak season. Currently, there is some restocking at low prices, but large - scale restocking has not formed, and the inventory has not entered continuous destocking. Technically, Shanghai Aluminum has reached the upper limit of the recent oscillation range. Without a trend - setting macro - guidance or a clear fundamental orientation, the market is expected to remain in a wait - and - see state, and Shanghai Aluminum will continue to oscillate favorably [6] 3.4 Industry News - Yunnan's electrolytic aluminum output in July 2025 was 510,200 tons, and the cumulative output from January to July was 3.4142 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% [7] - The Yunnan Green and Low - Carbon Demonstration Industrial Park was completed, and the 1.93 - million - ton low - carbon aluminum B - series project of Yunnan Honghe was put into production. Currently, the first - stage capacity of 160,715 tons in the B - series has reached full production, and the transferred capacity of 378,000 tons is expected to reach full production before October 1 [7] - The retail volume of the national new - energy passenger - vehicle market in the first 24 days of August was 727,000, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 6% and 7% respectively. The new - energy retail penetration rate has reached 56.6%, and the cumulative retail volume since the beginning of the year has reached 7.182 million, a year - on - year surge of 27% [7] 3.5 Related Charts The report provides 10 charts including the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 - month and SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the Shanghai - London Aluminum ratio, LME Aluminum premium/discount, Shanghai Aluminum's inter - period spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, seasonal spot premium/discount, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonal change, and aluminum rod inventory seasonal change [8][9][12][14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the combination of factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output growth, and mixed downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range weak fluctuations as short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards surplus [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed higher. Concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profits are under pressure, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Downstream demand shows mixed trends: power industry has positive growth, photovoltaic rush - installation increased year - on - year but future growth may slow, automobile production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 79,440 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 185 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 9,902 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 80.26 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 157,950 tons with a daily increase of 1,850 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, automobile production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,130 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 55 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,814 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 6.12 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 58,000 tons with a daily decrease of 2,025 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 20,765 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 30 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,619 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 2.98 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 481,150 tons with a daily decrease of 100 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 121,450 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 1,590 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 15,421 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 174.22 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 209,676 tons with a daily increase of 456 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 16,840 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 150 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 1,991 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 41.07 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 262,500 tons with a daily decrease of 4,975 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 278,300 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 1,530 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 34,950 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 175.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 1,895 tons with a daily decrease of 30 tons [2].