今天，A股板块快速轮动， 盘面呈现明显共振特点，一是股期共振，二是A股顺周期板块之间共振。 A股市场和商品市场紧密联动，成为今天盘面一大特点。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 创业板 | | --- | --- | | 3454.79 | 10412.63 2123.72 | | -2.96 -0.09% - - 63.66 -0.61% - - 24.20 -1.13% | | | 跌3284 涨1945 > | | 商品市场上， 多晶硅、玻璃期货领涨， 多晶硅涨停，玻璃涨超6%， 工业硅、硅铁等品种跟涨。A股市 场上，光伏、玻璃、钢铁等板块大涨。 重庆钢铁（601005）放量大涨，8分钟内拉升涨停。重庆钢铁股份（H股）涨幅更为明显，盘中一度涨 超130%，收盘涨幅为91.11%。 截至收盘，沪指跌0.09%，深证成指跌0.61%，创业板指跌1.13%， 全市场 成交额约1.41万亿元。 | 涨幅跌幅 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日増减仓 | 玻璃2509 | 1052 | 6.48% | | | 工业硅2509 | 8210 | 4.79% | | 持仓量 | 氧化 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in high-priced stocks, while the deep-sea technology sector shows strong performance with over 20 stocks hitting the daily limit up [1][2] - A total of 60 stocks reached the daily limit up, with 12 stocks in a continuous rise, and 8 of them achieving three consecutive limit ups, reflecting a progression rate of 53.33% for limit-up stocks [1] - The overall market saw more than 3200 stocks decline, with notable drops in popular stocks such as Changcheng Military Industry, which fell over 7%, and several others hitting the limit down [1] Group 2 - The deep-sea technology sector was particularly strong, with stocks like Kelaite and Shenshui Haina hitting the daily limit up, and others like Daye Intelligent and Guolian Aquatic rising by 20% [1] - The photovoltaic sector continued its upward trend, led by the photovoltaic glass sub-sector, with stocks such as Yamaton and Yaopi Glass also reaching the daily limit up [1][2] - Specific stocks showed varied performance, with Chengbang Co. achieving a five consecutive limit up but experiencing significant fluctuations during trading [1]

Group 1 - The central government has set the tone for eliminating backward production capacity, leading to a significant increase in commodity prices, with polysilicon contracts hitting the limit up and rising nearly 7% [1] - Polysilicon has formed a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern, attracting macro funds for increased allocation [1][7] - The main contract for polysilicon has surged, breaking through the 35,000 yuan/ton mark, with a cumulative rebound of over 14% from the bottom [3] Group 2 - Recent price increases in polysilicon are attributed to three main factors: 1. Growing expectations for policy changes aimed at clearing out "involution" competition, with references to the 2015 supply-side reform [5] 2. A significant price drop of about 20% from approximately 38,500 yuan/ton to around 30,400 yuan/ton, leading to a price correction as it fell below some manufacturers' production costs [6] 3. Rising industrial silicon prices, which support the production costs of polysilicon [7] Group 3 - The glass industry has seen a price increase of over 6%, with the main contract currently around 1,048 yuan/ton, as major photovoltaic glass companies plan to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July [8][10] - This reduction is expected to lead to a rapid decline in domestic photovoltaic glass supply, improving the supply-demand imbalance in the industry [10] - The photovoltaic industry is a key focus for the government's efforts to address "involution" competition, with clear policy directions anticipated to improve the overall industry profitability by 2025 [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [13] Core Viewpoints - The upgrade of AI special glass fiber is accelerating, with a focus on the volume increase of high-end products [6][10] - Cement prices continue to decline, while glass inventory has decreased month-on-month [8][9] - Recommended investment in domestic substitution chains and African chains, with existing leading companies as the main line for the year [10] Summary by Relevant Sections Cement Market - In late June, the average shipping rate of national cement enterprises was 43%, down approximately 0.8 percentage points month-on-month and 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The national average cement price decreased by 1.0% month-on-month, with most regions experiencing price declines [8][26] - The national cement average price was 357.74 yuan/ton, down 3.71 yuan/ton month-on-month and down 37.90 yuan/ton year-on-year [26] Glass Market - The domestic float glass market saw a slight improvement in transactions, but prices remained stable [9] - The total inventory of monitored provinces was 59 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.52 million weight boxes, with a decline of 2.51% [38][39] - The national average glass price was 69.17 yuan/weight box, down 0.81 yuan/weight box month-on-month and down 18.17 yuan/weight box year-on-year [39] Special Glass Fiber - China National Materials Technology is a leading domestic supplier of special glass fiber, benefiting from the upgrade trend [7] - The company is expected to achieve a monthly production capacity of 6 million meters by the end of 2026, with a projected performance of approximately 3.8 billion yuan in 2025-2026 [7] - The upgrade from M8 to M9 in copper-clad laminates is expected to drive the scale increase of high-end products [6] Recommended Companies - Recommended companies include China National Materials Technology, Meijia Xincai, and Punaite Co., Ltd. for domestic substitution [10] - Keda Manufacturing is recommended for the African chain, benefiting from local market advantages [10] - The report also highlights the potential of Sanhe Tree and Rabbit Baby in the existing stock chain [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that industry losses are forcing glass companies to reduce production, leading to a significant increase in futures prices [1] Group 2 - The current rebound in futures prices raises questions about its sustainability and duration [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation", and the ratings for various varieties are also mainly "oscillation" [8][10][11] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflict disturbances have weakened, and the focus of black commodity trading has shifted to the domestic market. During the off - season, hot metal production has increased. Against the backdrop of low valuations, furnace materials have rebounded from oversold levels. However, the construction and manufacturing industries in China have entered the off - season, and steel demand and inventory are gradually under pressure. Tangshan's emission reduction has a short - term impact on supply, with limited overall influence, and prices have re - entered an oscillatory state [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Situation - Tangshan's stricter emission reduction requirements have led to a weakening of furnace materials and a strengthening of steel prices. The impact on hot metal needs continuous observation. The market is cautious, especially as steel is in the off - season with signs of weakening demand, so the unilateral increase in prices is small. Coking coal and coke have declined more than iron ore due to the resumption of coal mines and emission reduction [1][2] 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply: This week, the shipments from overseas mines and the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased month - on - month, with less pressure on the supply side. Although there is an expectation of a small - scale inventory build - up in the coming weeks due to previous shipments from overseas mines, the amplitude is limited [3][10][11] - Demand: Steel mills' profitability remains high, and there is no driving force for hot metal to reduce production due to profit reasons. However, Tangshan's emission reduction may affect short - term ore demand, but its impact on medium - and long - term iron ore demand is small [3][10][11] 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: Affected by the resumption of coal mines, the reduction of the long - term contract price of Mongolian coal in the third quarter, and Tangshan's emission reduction news, the market was weak. The supply recovery is slow, demand is expected to decline, and there is still pressure on mine - end inventory reduction, with limited upward price drivers [3][14] - Coke: The spot market sentiment has improved, and inventory has been further reduced. However, affected by supply - demand rumors, the market oscillated weakly. Supply has decreased slightly, and there is a risk of a decline in short - term hot metal production, so the upward price space is limited [13] 3.4 Alloys - Manganese Silicon: The price increase of port ore is limited. Supply is expected to increase, and demand may decrease. The supply - demand gap is narrowing, and prices are expected to oscillate [4][7] - Ferrosilicon: The current supply - demand relationship is healthy, but there is a possibility of supply - demand gap narrowing in the future. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7] 3.5 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Off - season demand is declining, supply pressure exists, and the market is affected by sentiment, with prices expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes, cold - repair conditions, and demand sustainability [7][15] - Soda Ash: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [7][15][17] 3.6 Steel - Affected by Tangshan's emission reduction news, steel prices rose at the end of the session. Supply has positive factors, but demand is under off - season pressure. Overall supply and demand have weakened month - on - month, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]

7月1日，玻璃期货呈现震荡下行走势，截至发稿主力合约大幅下挫4.03%，报977.00元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 据了解，近日安徽地区两座窑炉合计玻璃产能1800吨/天窑炉正式减产，7月首轮减产行动开始，预计近 期江西、安徽地区仍有窑炉堵口，减产。 据悉，为破除"内卷式"竞争，国内头部光伏玻璃企业计划自7月开始集体减产30%，此外部分玻璃企业 堵口计划开始增多，预计后续国内光伏玻璃供应量将快速下滑，国内供需失衡的状况将获得改善。 机构观点 东海期货：供应方面，装置冷修叠加装置点火，整体玻璃供应持稳，整体产量周环比变化不大，维持在 底部，以刚需生产为主；需求方面，终端地产行业形势依旧持续弱势，需求难有起色，下游深加工订单 下滑，整体采购以刚需为主；利润方面，整体利润不加，周环比变化不大；当前玻璃的供应以刚需生产 为主，终端地产行业形势不佳，需求整体依旧疲软，短期预计偏弱运行，弱势震荡为主。 中辉期货：国内宏观数据改善，市场风险偏好回升，供应端低位小幅缩减，上游库存转降。中期玻璃需 求萎缩尚未缓解，反弹力度受限。目前煤制仍有利润，难以触发大规模冷修，开工和日熔量低位小幅波 动，成本端下移，盘面价格贴水现货，且低于煤 ...

Core Viewpoint - The glass industry is facing a supply-demand imbalance that is expected to persist into 2025, with futures prices likely to remain low for an extended period [1] Group 1: Supply and Production - In the first half of 2025, the glass industry's production capacity continues to decline, with the average operating rate of float glass industry down by 8.58 percentage points compared to the same period last year, and production down by 10% [1] - The daily melting capacity of glass is expected to have limited room for decline in the second half, ranging from 1,650 to 3,250 tons [1] - As of late June, the total inventory of float glass enterprises reached 69.887 million heavy boxes, an increase of 54.54% from the end of last year and up 16.82% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Demand and Consumption - The core issue of weak glass demand is attributed to the sluggish real estate market, slow progress on engineering orders, and difficulties in order fulfillment and payment collection for deep processing enterprises [1] - The apparent consumption of domestic float glass from January to May was 18.6463 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, indicating that the supply-demand imbalance has not eased [1] - Although there may be a temporary improvement in demand in the second half of the year, the overall consumption is still expected to decline year-on-year [1] Group 3: Pricing and Costs - The decline in raw material prices has led to a reduction in glass production costs; however, the decrease in most process costs has not matched the drop in finished product prices, resulting in continuous losses for most processes, with only coal gasification processes showing slight profitability [1] - Without strong external factors, it is difficult for costs and profits to drive capacity exit in the second half of the year [1] - The glass futures prices are expected to remain below 1,000 yuan per ton for a long time, with the main contract center in the range of 850 to 950 yuan per ton in the second half [1] Group 4: Exports and Market Outlook - From January to May, the total export volume of domestic float glass was 379,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 126.32%; from January to April, the export volume of glass and deep processing products was 1.328 million tons, an increase of nearly 20% year-on-year [1] - The export situation in the second half of the year will be a key factor in determining the supply-demand landscape; optimistic scenarios could offset demand declines, while pessimistic scenarios could increase inventory pressure [1] - The industry is unlikely to resolve the supply-demand imbalance before significant capacity exit or positive demand growth occurs [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6]. - Specific varieties' ratings: steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, silicon manganese, and silicon iron are all rated as "oscillating"; soda ash is rated as "oscillating weakly" [8][9][10][11][12][13][15][16] 2. Report's Core View - Yesterday, the black market weakened. Affected by the news of coal mine restart, coking coal and coke had large declines in the late trading. The overall demand for five major steel products is in a weakening trend in the off - season, and the market is cautious, with the market resuming an oscillating trend. Geopolitical conflicts have less impact, and the trading focus has shifted to the domestic market. Although the blast furnace charge has rebounded from the oversold situation, the demand and inventory of steel are under pressure, so the upward space is limited [1][2][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Overseas mines' shipping volume decreased month - on - month, while steel mills' hot metal daily output slightly increased. The port inventory decreased slightly. There is an expectation of a small - scale inventory build - up in the future, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to steel mills' profitability and maintenance plans [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Some coal mines in Shanxi have restarted, but the overall coking coal output is still declining. Coke production has dropped from a high level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in coking enterprises' production. Coking coal inventory is still at a high level in recent years, and there is still pressure on coal mines to reduce inventory. Coking coal prices lack a driving force for a trending increase [3]. 3.3 Alloys - For silicon manganese, the lack of arrivals from Gabon in early July supports prices. Although there is an expectation of increased production, factories and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices due to cost inversion, so the short - term market is expected to oscillate. For silicon iron, although individual manufacturers have an expectation of increased production, manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and the short - term market is also expected to oscillate [3]. 3.4 Glass - In the off - season, demand is declining, upstream inventory is accumulating, and the energy cost support is weakening. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, cold - repair, and demand sustainability. The short - term market is expected to oscillate [3][13]. 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. With the resumption of maintenance, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and decline in the long term [3][13][15]. 3.6 Specific Varieties Analysis 3.6.1 Steel - This week, the supply and demand of five major steel products both weakened month - on - month, and the overall inventory increased. However, the inventory of rebar decreased. Driven by a weak fundamental situation and short - term weakening of macro - sentiment, steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - Shipping and arrivals both decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly. There is an expectation of a small - scale inventory build - up in the future, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Ore prices are expected to oscillate [2][8][9]. 3.6.3 Scrap Steel - The market is pessimistic about off - season demand. The arrival volume has decreased, and the total daily consumption has also declined. The scrap steel price is expected to oscillate [9]. 3.6.4 Coke - The market is stable, but the coking enterprises' inventory needs to be digested, and the demand support is expected to weaken. The upward space for coke prices is limited, and there is a downward pressure in the medium term [10][11]. 3.6.5 Coking Coal - The supply disturbance is difficult to sustain, and there is an expectation of increased production. The downstream demand is declining in the off - season, and the coal mine inventory reduction pressure remains. The coking coal price lacks a driving force for a trending increase, and the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited [3][12]. 3.6.6 Silicon Manganese - There is an expectation of increased production, and the supply - demand is expected to be loose. But due to cost inversion, manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and the short - term market is expected to oscillate [3][15]. 3.6.7 Silicon Iron - Although individual manufacturers have an expectation of increased production, manufacturers are reluctant to sell. The short - term market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel tenders and production [3][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global risk preference continues to rise due to the weakening US dollar index, with expectations of Fed rate - cuts and positive developments in trade agreements. In China, economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies are boosting domestic risk preference. Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may remain high and oscillatory, and various commodity sectors have their own specific trends [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, Trump urges the Fed to ease monetary policy, and Fed official Bostic expects rate cuts. The US dollar index falls, and global risk preference rises. Domestically, China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and consumption - stimulating policies are introduced. Stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may be high and oscillatory, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Supported by sectors like military, gaming, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rises. China's economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies boost domestic risk preference. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by a weak US dollar but is under downward pressure due to a weakening of the market's risk - aversion sentiment. The US economic data is weak, and Powell's dovish stance supports the gold price. In the short - term, gold may be oscillatory and weak, but its safe - haven property remains strong [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel spot market rebounds, but the futures price rises and then falls. Policy is favorable, but traders face poor sales, and the cost support weakens. Supply remains high, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is stable. Demand remains resilient as steel mills' profits are high and iron - water production is expected to stay high. Supply may fall after the peak shipping season. Iron ore prices may oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are flat. Demand is okay as steel production rises. The prices of these ferroalloys are expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - The soda ash price is weak. Supply is abundant, demand is low, and profits are decreasing. In the long - term, the high - supply, high - inventory, and low - demand situation persists, and short positions can be held [7]. Glass - The glass price is weak. Supply is stable, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Trump's tariff hints and high production, potential weakening demand, and inventory slowdown are factors. The price may fall when certain conditions are met. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and potential copper tariffs [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate falls. Downstream demand slows, but the supply side shows some changes. The market is in a loose situation, and opportunities may come after a rebound [9]. Aluminum - The LME inventory increases, and domestic aluminum products are accumulating inventory. The de - stocking inflection point has arrived, and the price may be affected [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the off - season, but tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. It may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside will be restricted in the medium - term [9]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Oil prices fall due to speculation of OPEC+ production increase and the easing of Middle - East supply concerns. It will continue to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is strongly oscillatory as oil prices are low. Inventory is being depleted, and it will follow the oil price in the short - term [11]. PX - PX has strong cost support but faces uncertainties from falling oil prices. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The demand for PTA may remain low in the long - term. The price's upside is limited [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The price center falls with oil prices, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate [12]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber inventory is high, and the price will decline as the cost falls. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly [12]. Methanol - The methanol price is supported by maintenance and low imports but is suppressed by factors like high inventory and poor downstream profits. It will oscillate strongly [12]. PP - The PP price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production, low demand, and geopolitical support [12]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price will oscillate weakly as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The US 2025 soybean planting area estimate is lower than expected, with different trends for different contract months [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the market sentiment is weak. The weak basis situation is expected to continue, but stable US soybean prices provide some support [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is abundant, and inventory is recovering seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil is improving. Both may be under pressure [17]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to factors like the end of policy benefits and a slowdown in exports [18]. Corn - The corn spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak. After the wheat substitution season, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounds as group - farms reduce出栏. The demand is weak, but the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [19].