Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agricultural sector [1] Core Insights - The USDA has raised global corn and soybean production forecasts, indicating a positive outlook for these commodities [1] - The report highlights adjustments in global agricultural supply and demand, with specific increases in corn, soybean, wheat, and rice production and consumption [5] Summary by Sections Corn - Global corn production for the 2025/26 year is forecasted at 1.296 billion tons, an increase of 1.02% from previous estimates, driven by higher yields and increased harvested area [8] - China's corn production is expected to rise to 301 million tons, a 2.12% increase, while consumption remains stable at 321 million tons [10] Soybeans - Global soybean production is projected at 425.68 million tons, a 0.74% increase, with Brazil's production rising significantly due to favorable weather [19] - China's soybean production is expected to decline to 20.90 million tons, with consumption decreasing slightly to 133 million tons [25] Wheat - Global wheat production is forecasted at 842.17 million tons, a 0.52% increase, with demand also rising, leading to a higher stock-to-use ratio of 33.77% [32] - China's wheat production is expected to be stable at 140 million tons, with a stock-to-use ratio projected to rise to 84.36% [37] Rice - Global rice production is adjusted to 541 million tons, with a slight increase in demand, resulting in a stock-to-use ratio of 35.12% [43] - China's rice production is expected to increase to 146 million tons, with consumption also rising, leading to a stock-to-use ratio of 71.46% [43]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: The cotton market is expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival. On January 27, 2026, the main cotton contract closed at 14,650 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 7,457 lots to 795,900 lots. The ICE U.S. cotton price dropped 1.36% to 62.94 cents/pound, and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract decreased by 0.51%. Overseas macro disturbances have increased risk - aversion, postponing the first interest - rate cut of the year to June. In the domestic market, textile enterprises' pre - holiday stocking is limited, and as the Spring Festival approaches, they will start to have holidays. The current cotton inventory is at a high level, and imported cotton has increased, so the upward driving force for cotton prices is limited [2]. - **Sugar**: The sugar market is also expected to be volatile. In the 2025/26 sugar - making season in December, India reached the milestone of 20% ethanol blending in gasoline. The spot price range of Guangxi sugar - making groups is 5,260 - 5,330 yuan/ton, with some prices down 10 yuan/ton; Yunnan sugar - making groups' price is 5,130 - 5,180 yuan/ton, unchanged. The raw sugar has not broken out of the volatile range. In the domestic market, spot trading has slowed down, inventory is accumulating, and the market sentiment is average. Future attention should be paid to the production data in January and the latest production estimates in Guangxi [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 3 - 5 contract spread is 45 yuan, up 40 yuan; the main contract basis is 1,345 yuan, up 170 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,717 yuan/ton, up 122 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,995 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 3 - 5 contract spread is 10 yuan, up 2 yuan; the main contract basis is 148 yuan, up 8 yuan. The Nanning spot price is 5,270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 5,320 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On January 26, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,144, an increase of 172 from the previous trading day, with 986 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 15,717 yuan/ton, Henan 16,038 yuan/ton, Shandong 16,049 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 16,184 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 47.6, down 0.3 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 24.6, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 50.6, down 0.2; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 32.3, up 0.1 [4]. - **Sugar**: On January 26, the sugar spot price in Nanning was 5,270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day, and in Liuzhou it was 5,320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 13,715, a decrease of 30 from the previous trading day, with 132 valid forecasts [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: The report provides charts of the cotton main contract closing price, main contract basis, 3 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index: 3218B [7][10][11][12]. - **Sugar**: The report provides charts of the sugar main contract closing price, main contract basis, 3 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts [14][15][17]. 4. Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, an analyst responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferro - alloy [19][20][21].

Supply and Demand - Construction starts are showing seasonal recovery, with cement dispatch rates and mill operation rates higher than the same period in 2025[14] - Industrial production shows a mixed performance, with strong operations in chemicals and automotive steel tires, while coking remains weak[22] - Demand in construction remains weak, with automotive and home appliance sales also underperforming[29] Commodity Prices - International commodity prices, including oil, copper, aluminum, and gold, have been rising, with gold prices reaching new historical highs[4] - Domestic industrial prices are also on the rise, driven by non-ferrous metals, although rebar prices have shown a downward trend[42] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions continue to decline significantly, with average transaction area in 30 major cities down by 29% and 31% compared to 2024 and 2025 respectively[56] - Second-hand housing transactions have increased in both volume and price, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen seeing year-on-year increases of 7%, 5%, and 21% respectively compared to 2025[61] Export Trends - Exports are expected to decline, with models indicating a year-on-year decrease of approximately 2.3% for the first 25 days of January[63] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - Recent weeks have seen fluctuations in funding rates, with the R007 at 1.54% and DR007 at 1.49% as of January 23[69] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 426.1 billion yuan through reverse repos in the last two weeks[71]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 27 日星期二 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 ddddddddddddddddddddddddddd | 农林畜 | 红枣 | 震 偏弱 | 荡 | 【行情复盘】 昨日 CJ605 合约收盘价 8760 元/吨，日跌幅 0.45%。CJ609 合约收盘价 9000 元/吨， 日跌幅 0.44%。 【重要资讯】 1.上周 36 家样本点物理库存在 14068 吨，较上周减少 347 吨，环比减少 2.41%， 同比增加 32.72%，样本点库存环比下降。 2.昨日河北特级红枣批发价 9.25 元/公斤，日环比-0.02 元/公斤。 3.上周河北市场各等级价格参考超特 11.30-12.00 元/公斤，特级 8.80-10.50 元/ 公斤，一级 7.80-8.50 元/公斤，二级 6.70-7.40 元/公斤，三级 5.80-6.30 元/ 公斤，实际成交根据产地、质量不同价格不一。 4.昨日广 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It details the market trends, influencing factors, and trading strategies for each sector. For example, in the financial derivatives market, the stock index futures show a style reversal, and the bond market has narrow - range fluctuations. In the agricultural product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [20][23][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market style reversed. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indexes rebounded, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes weakened. The trading volume of futures contracts increased, and the market is expected to remain stable with a medium - term upward trend [20][21]. - **Bond Futures**: The bond futures closed mostly lower. The central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity led to a slight convergence of the money market. The short - term direction of the bond market depends on the risk - asset trend [23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The production remains high, and the market is under pressure. Although the demand has slightly improved and the South American weather has some impact, the overall supply - demand is relatively loose [26][27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The domestic sugar market is in the peak crushing period, with supply pressure, but the decline space is limited [33]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The soybean supply is sufficient, and the rapeseed trade may be disturbed. The palm oil is expected to continue to reduce production and inventory, and the short - term oil market will fluctuate widely [35][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The North Port spot is strong, and the futures price rises and then falls. The US corn report shows an increase in yield, but the Argentine weather is dry, and the domestic corn has short - term stability and long - term pressure [38][40]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure increases, and the spot price continues to decline. The overall inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains [42]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates at the bottom. The import volume decreases, and the oil mill has profits [45][46]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg price rises. The egg - laying hen inventory is decreasing, but the 03 contract's upward space is limited [49][50]. - **Apples**: The pre - festival sales accelerate, and the inventory is low. The 5 - month contract is expected to be strong [53][54]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton sales progress is fast, and the market sentiment is optimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate within a range [57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The demand is weakening, and the steel price continues to oscillate. The steel production and inventory have different trends, and the cost has support [60]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamentals are lackluster, and the market is affected by capital. The supply is not tight, and the downstream demand for winter storage is not strong [62][63]. - **Iron Ore**: The terminal demand is at a low level, and the ore price oscillates. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak, and the high valuation is difficult to maintain [65][67]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is low and needs to be repaired. The short - term trend is slightly strong. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are relatively stable, and the cost has support [68]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The market shows a "roller - coaster" trend. The short - term price is affected by news and technical adjustments. Gold is relatively stable, while silver is in a sensitive stage [70][71]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The precious - metal market has a "roller - coaster" trend. Platinum has a stronger upward drive than palladium [72][73]. - **Copper**: The copper price is consolidating at a high level. The macro and fundamental factors are contradictory. The long - term upward trend remains [74][76]. - **Alumina**: It mainly oscillates at a low level. The supply has short - term maintenance and production reduction, and the demand has a small increase [78][82]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It oscillates at a high level with macro - hedging expectations. The supply will increase in the future, and the price is affected by financial attributes [83][86]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It oscillates at a high level with macro - hedging expectations. The scrap - aluminum supply is tight, and the cost supports the price [87]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the change of domestic social inventory. The supply of zinc concentrate is short, and the demand is different. The short - term price is strong [89][91]. - **Lead**: There may be support at the bottom. The supply and demand are weak, and the price oscillates within a range [93][94]. - **Nickel**: The long - term expectation leads to the rise of the nickel price. The short - term reality is weak, and the long - term expectation is optimistic [95][96]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply and demand are tight, and the cost supports the price. The supply is short, and the inventory is decreasing [98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production - reduction news affects the market, and the short - term trend is slightly strong. The demand is weak, but if the production reduction is implemented, the price may rise [100][101]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is falling, and the short - term futures are under pressure. The high inventory and weak demand may lead to a decline in the spot price [103]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The regulatory measures cool the market, and attention should be paid to when the price stabilizes. The short - term price is affected by regulation, and the long - term trend is positive [106][107]. - **Tin**: The tin price rises and then falls. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption [109]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The SCFIS index is lower than expected. The spot freight rate is in the off - season decline, and the export - tax - rebate - driven rush of shipments is less than expected. The 04 contract has a discount, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation [111][113]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market weighs long and short factors, and the geopolitical situation is still tense. The international oil price is expected to oscillate strongly [116][117]. - **Asphalt**: The cost supports the price, and the asphalt market price oscillates at a high level. The demand is weakening, and the price is stable [118][121]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fundamental situation is weak, and the geopolitical factor is the main bullish driver. The high - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation, and the low - sulfur fuel oil has an increase in supply [123][125]. - **LPG**: The price fluctuation is intensified by geopolitical factors. The international LPG is tight, and the demand of downstream chemical enterprises is weak [127][129]. - **Natural Gas**: The LNG price has limited room for further increase. The US HH price is volatile near the delivery date. The European market is affected by cold weather, and the long - term market is loose [129][132]. - **PX & PTA**: The capital attention increases, and the polyester demand decreases seasonally. The PX supply is high, and the PTA supply and demand are weak [133][135]. - **BZ & EB**: The supply - demand pattern of styrene is improving. The supply is affected by device failures and overseas maintenance, and the price is strong [136][137]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Saudi Arabian maintenance may lead to a decline in imports. The near - month contract is strong, and the import is expected to decrease [140]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply is sufficient, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - fiber load is expected to decrease, and it follows the cost - side trend [142][144]. - **Bottle Chips**: The maintenance accelerates in mid - January, and it follows the cost - side trend. The production is expected to decrease, and the price is strong [145]. - **Propylene**: The cost of propane is strong, and the propylene load continues to decline. The supply is affected by device maintenance, and the market has support [147][148]. - **Plastic PP**: The maintenance of L plastic decreases marginally. The L and PP prices rise, but the downstream demand is weak [150]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic - soda price is weakening. The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the inventory has pressure [153]. - **PVC**: It oscillates and consolidates. The supply is high, the demand is affected by the festival, and the price is expected to be strong [156]. - **Soda Ash**: It shows a strong trend this week. The supply is stable, the demand is stable, and the price is expected to rise [159][160]. - **Glass**: It shows a strong trend this week. The price is affected by the market sentiment, and the high - inventory pressure needs to be considered [161][163]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical situation eases, and the methanol price falls from a high level. The international supply is affected by device shutdowns, and the domestic supply is loose [164][167]. - **Urea**: It oscillates at a high level. The domestic production is at a high level, the international price is rising, and the domestic demand is weak [168][170]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price continues to oscillate widely. The supply is greater than the demand, and the demand support is insufficient [171][172]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The high inventory suppresses the paper price. The supply is still abundant, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing [176]. - **Logs**: The supply is tight due to natural disasters in New Zealand, and the spot price is stable and slightly strong. The price is affected by supply and demand in different regions [179][180]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The inventory in the bonded area decreases, and the inventory outside the area increases. The demand of the US auto industry has a slight negative impact on the rubber price [182][184]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The profit recovery of butadiene is less than that of last year. The capacity utilization rate and profit of butadiene and butadiene rubber have different trends [185][186].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different sectors having their own characteristics. For example, in the macro - financial sector, the stock index futures market needs to pay attention to the sustainability of style changes and the repair of weighted indexes; the bond market's ultra - long - end rebound may not end, and interest rates may continue to flatten. In the black sector, the overall situation is volatile, with steel products oscillating and iron ore being relatively weak. In the energy - chemical sector, the price of energy products is affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relations [15][16][17]. Summary by Directory 1. Based on Fundamental and Quantitative Index Judgments - **Based on Fundamental Judgments**: Different futures varieties have different trend judgments, such as trend空头, 震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and 趋势多头 for various commodities like烧碱, 二债, 上证50股指期货, etc. [4] - **Based on Quantitative Index Judgments**: There are also trend judgments for different varieties based on quantitative indicators, including偏空, 震荡, and 偏多 for commodities like豆二, 豆一, 甲醇, etc. [6] 2. Macro News - **International Trade Tensions**: The US threatens to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Canada reaches a new trade agreement with China. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs states that China - Canada cooperation does not target any third - party [8]. - **Financial Policy**: The People's Bank of China emphasizes expanding the scope of macro - prudential policies to maintain financial stability. The central bank's deputy governor supports measures to increase the scale of RMB business in Hong Kong [8][10]. - **Market Fluctuations**: The precious metal market experiences significant fluctuations. The exchange takes measures to cool down the commodity futures market. Some companies have important developments, such as Alibaba releasing a new AI model and a large - scale financing in the AI unicorn [8][9]. - **Industry Policies**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs focuses on stabilizing beef production and milk industry relief. Tianjin optimizes housing provident fund management [10]. - **Space and Technology**: A company plans to build a space computing power network. Tencent has its own AI strategy. Humanoid robots will appear on the Spring Festival Gala [11]. - **US Government Situation**: The probability of a new US government shutdown by the end of January soars. The US durable goods orders in November 2025 show significant growth [11][12]. - **Hong Kong and OPEC+**: Hong Kong plans to increase gold storage and establish a gold trading system. OPEC+ is expected to continue the current production policy [13]. 3. Macro - Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market fluctuates downward. The style of the market is being repaired, but there is still pressure on weighted stocks. The strategy is to pay attention to the sustainability of style changes and the repair of weighted indexes [15]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ultra - long - end rebound may not end, and interest rates may continue to flatten. The central bank's MLF operation increases, and the monetary policy is turning loose. However, the money market is still relatively expensive [16]. 4. Black Sector - **Steel and Iron Ore**: From a policy perspective, the production of the steel industry is less likely to be interfered with. Fundamentally, steel stocks increase slightly, and the fundamentals are okay. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the overall black market is in a volatile situation. Steel products oscillate, and iron ore is relatively weak [17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal and coke may oscillate in the short term. The supply and demand situation may improve during the Spring Festival, which may support the spot price [20]. - **Ferroalloys**: The price center of silicon - based ferroalloys is rising slightly. It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon at low prices in the medium - term and hold short positions on silicomanganese [21]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: The market atmosphere is easing. It is recommended to wait and see. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and new production capacity. For glass, pay attention to the implementation of production line changes [22]. 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc inventory decreases. It is recommended to wait and see or re - enter the market with short positions as precious metals may fall back and drive down the non - ferrous sector [24]. - **Lead**: The social inventory of lead increases. It is recommended to wait and see and hold short positions. The lead consumption market is in a downturn, and the supply is relatively tight in some areas [27]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price may rise after a short - term correction. Attention should be paid to the possible resumption of production of mines and the impact on downstream demand [28]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon may run strongly in the short term but is under pressure in the long - term. Polysilicon is in a volatile state, waiting for policy guidance [29][30]. 6. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The short - term supply is loose, and the price is in a short - term consolidation state. The long - term supply is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [32]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar market is under supply pressure, and the demand is not strong during the peak season. It is recommended to trade in the low - price range [34]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg spot price may weaken. The futures price has limited upward space, and a short - selling idea is recommended at the current position [35]. - **Apples**: The apple market is in a game between supply support and demand constraints. The price of high - quality goods remains firm, and the price of ordinary goods is under pressure [38]. - **Corn**: The corn market has large differences in the market. It is recommended to focus on the port collection situation and conduct short - term trading [39]. - **Red Dates**: The red date market is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season [39]. - **Pigs**: The supply and demand of the pig market both increase, and the spot market has intense competition. Attention should be paid to the impact of weight reduction before the Spring Festival on the spot price [41]. 7. Energy - Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, and the supply is in surplus. There is a high geopolitical premium, and short - term market fluctuations should be noted [43]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price of fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally, and the focus is on the geopolitical situation [44]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins have large supply pressure. The upstream is in a loss state, and the price may rebound slightly but with limited space [45]. - **Rubber**: Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment and the approaching off - season in overseas production areas may support the price. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options at low prices [46]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The supply and demand of synthetic rubber are stable and increasing. It is recommended to go long on dips based on the expectation of good fundamentals of butadiene [47]. - **Methanol**: The short - term supply and demand situation of methanol has improved, and the inventory is decreasing. In the long - term, the fundamentals are getting better, but attention should be paid to the arrival of imported goods [50]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot market of caustic soda is bearish, but the far - month futures contract shows a strong trend [51]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt follows the trend of crude oil and is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term [52]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The short - term market is affected by market sentiment. It is recommended to consider positive spreads between May and September contracts of PX, PTA, or MEG [53]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: LPG is strong in the short - term, supported by import costs. However, attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the demand side [54]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp market has a lot of long - short games. The spot market trading sentiment is weakening, and the price may oscillate. If the commodity sentiment improves, it may be oscillating strongly [56]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals of logs are oscillating strongly, and the spot price is temporarily stable. The market is expected to be oscillating strongly with the improvement of commodity sentiment [56]. - **Urea**: The urea futures market is expected to be strongly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the improvement of the spot market liquidity [57].

Core Insights - In 2025, Liaocheng's total foreign trade import and export value reached 72.81 billion yuan, marking a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 15.5%, surpassing the provincial average growth rate by 11 percentage points [1] Trade Performance - Exports amounted to 41.06 billion yuan, growing by 4.8%, while imports reached 31.75 billion yuan, increasing by 33.1% [1] - General trade accounted for 78.2% of the total foreign trade value, with an import and export value of 56.97 billion yuan [1] - Processing trade saw a significant increase, with a value of 13.4 billion yuan, growing 1.9 times and representing 18.4% of the total [1] - Bonded logistics contributed 2.41 billion yuan, growing by 200% and accounting for 3.3% of the total [1] Enterprise Contributions - Private enterprises contributed 37.06 billion yuan, a growth of 5.5%, making up 50.9% of the total foreign trade [1] - State-owned enterprises reported 26.07 billion yuan in trade, a 26.1% increase, representing 35.8% of the total [1] - Foreign-invested enterprises had a trade value of 9.67 billion yuan, growing by 33.7%, accounting for 13.3% [1] Regional Trade - Trade with Latin America, Africa, and Australia reached 17.73 billion yuan, 12.43 billion yuan, and 8.14 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 18.1%, 93.1%, and 55.1% [1] - Exports to Africa and Latin America were 5.59 billion yuan and 5.21 billion yuan, growing by 50.9% and 35.4% respectively [1] - Imports from Latin America, Australia, and Africa were 12.52 billion yuan, 6.99 billion yuan, and 6.84 billion yuan, with growth rates of 12.1%, 72.3%, and 150% respectively [1] Product Exports - Mechanical and electrical products, agricultural products, and basic organic chemicals were exported at values of 15.28 billion yuan, 5.52 billion yuan, and 1.63 billion yuan, with growth rates of 10.2%, 7.1%, and 1.7% respectively [2] - Automobile exports reached 19,000 units, growing by 59.9%, with a total value of 4.74 billion yuan, an increase of 31.6% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn prices are expected to remain moderately strong in the short - term due to limited supply increase and downstream stocking expectations, and long - term focus should be on import and domestic auction policies [2] - Starch prices are supported to remain strong in the short - term by holiday stocking and inventory reduction, and long - term price trends depend on downstream consumption rhythm [3] - For sugar, international production is expected to increase in the 25/26 season, and domestic prices may be affected by global supply and demand in the long - term [4] - Cotton is suitable for long - term buying as demand is expected to improve and new - season planting area in Xinjiang may decline [4] - Egg prices' future trends depend on demand and hen culling data, with different scenarios affecting the second - quarter prices [5] - Apple prices show a split with good - quality apples stable and lower - quality ones weakening, and inventory is gradually decreasing during the Spring Festival [9] - For pigs, short - term price fluctuations exist with supply - demand mismatch possible, and long - term focus is on factors like slaughter rhythm, disease, and policy [9] 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/20 to 2026/01/26, the price in Changchun increased by 10 yuan, and the corn basis increased by 7, while the import profit decreased by 20 yuan. The starch basis increased by 17 [2] - **Market Analysis**: Corn prices may stay strong short - term due to limited supply and stocking demand, and long - term policies are crucial. Starch prices are supported short - term by stocking and inventory reduction, and long - term consumption rhythm matters [2][3] Sugar - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/20 to 2026/01/26, the price in Nanning decreased by 10 yuan, the basis in Liuzhou increased by 8, and the import profit from Thailand and Brazil both decreased by 11 yuan, with 30 fewer warehouse receipts [4] - **Market Analysis**: International production is expected to increase in the 25/26 season, and domestic prices may be affected by global supply - demand balance in the long - term [4] Cotton/Cotton yarn - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/20 to 2026/01/26, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 70 yuan, the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 38, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 68 yuan [4] - **Market Analysis**: Cotton demand is expected to improve, and new - season planting area in Xinjiang may decline, making it suitable for long - term buying [4] Egg - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/20 to 2026/01/26, the price in Hubei increased by 0.04 yuan, the basis decreased by 1, and the prices of substitute products like white - feather broilers, yellow - feather broilers, and pigs increased [5] - **Market Analysis**: Spring Festival stocking drives price rebound, and future trends depend on demand and hen culling data [5] Apple - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/20 to 2026/01/26, the national inventory decreased by 23, Shandong inventory increased by 69, and Shaanxi inventory increased by 14 [8][9] - **Market Analysis**: The trading atmosphere is light, good - quality apples are stable, and inventory is gradually decreasing during the Spring Festival [9] Pig - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/20 to 2026/01/26, the price in Henan Kaifeng decreased by 0.10 yuan, and the price in Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.30 yuan, while the basis remained unchanged [9] - **Market Analysis**: Short - term price fluctuations exist with supply - demand mismatch possible, and long - term focus is on slaughter rhythm, disease, and policy [9]

Group 1: Protein Meal - CBOT soybeans declined from a four-week high due to profit-taking, with soybean meal and oil also falling [2][8] - Weekly soybean export inspection report showed a total of 1.324 million tons, meeting market expectations, with 897,000 tons (67.76%) going to China [2][8] - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is projected to reach 181 million tons, slightly above previous estimates [2][8] - Domestic protein meal prices are rising ahead of the Spring Festival due to increased downstream stocking demand [2][8] - Some oil mills are experiencing delivery delays, leading to a gradual increase in physical inventory [2][8] Group 2: Oilseeds - BMD palm oil prices rose, following the upward trend in surrounding markets, driven by escalating issues in Iran affecting crude oil prices [9] - Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1-25 increased by 7.97%-9.97% month-on-month [9] - Domestic oilseed prices are collectively rising, with palm oil reaching a three-month high and soybean oil hitting a five-month high [9] - Optimism in the market is supported by rising international crude oil prices and a general increase in commodity prices [9] Group 3: Live Pigs - Live pig futures showed weak fluctuations, with the main contract closing down 0.86% at 11,465 yuan/ton [3][10] - The average price of live pigs in China was 12.82 yuan/kg, a slight decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg week-on-week [3][10] - Supply exceeds demand, leading to a decline in pig prices, particularly in northern markets where slaughtering is active [3][10] - Short-term demand is weakening as the Spring Festival stocking approaches its end, suggesting potential price corrections [3][10] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures saw a slight increase of 0.76%, closing at 3,069 yuan/500 kg, while spot prices remained stable across various markets [4][10] - The national average egg price was 3.86 yuan/kg, unchanged week-on-week, with regional prices showing stability [4][10] - Short-term demand from pre-holiday stocking supports current prices, but long-term supply pressures may arise as production increases [4][10] Group 5: Corn - Corn futures faced downward pressure after attempting to breach the 2,300 yuan mark, influenced by declines in the March contract [5][11] - Northeast corn prices remained stable, with increased delivery volumes noted at ports [5][11] - The market is reaching a relative balance in supply and demand, with cautious purchasing behavior observed as pre-holiday stocking nears completion [5][11]

农产品早报 2026-01-27 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 组长、生鲜品研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 据 UNICA 数据显示，2025 年 12 月下半月巴西中南部压榨甘蔗 217.1 万吨，同比增长 26.60%，糖产量为 5.6 万吨，同比减少 14.93%，甘蔗制糖比 21.24%，较去年同期减少 11.28 个百分点。据海关总署公布的 数据显示，2025 年 12 月份我国进口食糖 58 万吨，同比增加 19 万吨。2025 年我国累计进口食糖 492 万 吨，同比增加 57 万吨。2025/26 榨季截至 12 月底我国累计进口食糖 177 万吨，同比增加 31 万吨。12 月 份我国进口糖浆、预混粉合计 6.97 万吨 2025 年累计进口 118.88 万吨。印度糖及生物能源制造商协会 (ISMA)公布的数据显示，截至 2026 年 1 月 15 日，印度全国糖产量已达 ...