Core Viewpoint - The first batch of consumer assistance product catalog from Guangdong Province has been officially announced, highlighting the successful inclusion of four high-quality local agricultural products from Hengshitang Town in the provincial official recommendation platform, marking a significant step in connecting local specialty industries with the national consumption surge during the Spring Festival [1][3]. Group 1: Product Inclusion - The products successfully included in the provincial consumer assistance procurement catalog are "Yingde Black Tea Yinghong No. 9" from Tea Fragrance Yijing Company, "Fragrant Cold-Pressed Peanut Oil" and "Qingyuan Silk Rice" from Libiao Cooperative, and "Grapes" from Longzhihua Ecological Agriculture [2][3]. - These products passed strict reviews due to their excellent quality and potential to drive local economic benefits, entering the main channel for Spring Festival consumer assistance [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The work team is leveraging this opportunity to integrate local industrial development into the broader provincial and national festive consumption landscape, facilitating connections between these products and various promotional activities such as "New Year Goods Markets" and online sales [4]. - The inclusion signifies that Hengshitang Town's specialty agriculture is now on the "fast track" of provincial consumer assistance, providing broader exposure and sales channels for these products, which will enhance brand recognition and directly increase farmers' income through stable consumer orders [4].

期货研究报告 2026年01月12日 棕榈油期货：区间震荡，重心上移 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：（上周）棕榈油现货与期货同步小幅上涨，呈 "先抑后扬、震荡偏强"，核心 驱动为产地季节性减产预期与宏观情绪回暖，国内港口库存累积压制基差。 主产国数据：马来西亚棕榈油局MPOB：马来西亚12月棕榈油进口为33292吨，环比增长43.64%；产量为 1829761吨，环比减少5.46%；出口为1316522吨，环比增长8.52%；库存量为3050598吨，环比增长7.58%； 预测2025年马来西亚棕榈油产量将达到创纪录的2028万吨，高于2024年的1934万吨。 展望：短期受期货带动与备货需求支撑，但累库压力限制涨幅，高价成交乏力。棕榈油价格重心上移， 操作建议区间交易为主。 关注因素：1.马来西亚棕榈油产量及出口数据；2.豆棕价差修复变化；3.印尼B50生物柴油政策落地进度 等。 2、本周基本面数据周度变化： | | | | 棕榈油船期报价及进口利润测算（2026.01.05） | | | | --- | --- | ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the corn industry in the short - term is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current spot contradictions in the corn market still exist, with the grain - selling progress slowing down but still faster year - on - year. Port inventories are low, and there is a certain restocking demand among middle and downstream players before the festival. The short - term spot price remains relatively firm, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Neutral. The current grass - roots grain - selling progress is nearly half, with the progress slowing down but still faster year - on - year. The 2025/2026 planting cost continues to decline, with increased production in the Northeast and Northwest and decreased production in North China, and the overall national production is expected to be abundant [4] - **Demand**: Slightly bullish. In November 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.73 million tons, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease and a 2.7% year - on - year increase. The proportion of corn in compound feed was 43.8%. The high pig inventory supports short - term feed demand, but the current breeding profit is in the red. Feed enterprises maintain safety stocks and replenish stocks in a rolling manner. Deep - processing enterprises have seasonal inventory - building needs but are cautious. Traders have not yet started large - scale strategic inventory - building and have restocking needs [4] - **Inventory**: Bullish. Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed at northern ports is slow, and the inventory is still at a low level, mostly contract - order inventory. The grain inventory at southern ports is also at a low level. Feed enterprises' inventory and deep - processing corn inventory are both at low levels [4] - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The basis is neutral, and the C03 - C05 spread favors positive arbitrage [4] - **Profit**: Bearish. Pig and egg - poultry breeding profits are in the red, and the processing profits of deep - processed starch and alcohol are also in the red [4] - **Valuation**: Neutral. From the perspective of planting cost, the corn futures valuation is relatively high; from the perspective of absolute price, the corn futures valuation is relatively low [4] - **Macro and Policy**: Bearish. The release of policy grains such as reserve corn, imported corn, and aged wheat has increased [4] - **Investment Viewpoint**: Oscillating. The short - term spot price is firm, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: oscillating; Arbitrage: C03 - C05 positive arbitrage [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents the basis trend of the corn main contract, the prices at various ports such as Jinzhou Port and Shekou Port, the market average prices in Heilongjiang and Shandong, the futures contract positions of different months (such as C01, C03, C05, C09), and the spreads between different contracts (such as C03 - C05, C05 - C09) through charts [6][8][12][18] 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Grain - selling Progress**: The report shows the grain - selling progress in the Northeast and North China through charts, and currently the channel supply has decreased [22][24] - **Port and Inventory Data**: Northern port inventory and southern port grain inventory are at low levels. It also presents data on feed enterprises' inventory days, feed monthly production, and deep - processing enterprises' corn inventory and consumption [40][46][69] - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: Pig prices have slightly rebounded, and the weight reduction is not obvious. The breeding profits of pigs, broilers, and laying hens are presented, as well as relevant data such as the number of laying hens and the number of parent - stock broilers in production [54][58][64] - **Deep - processing Industry**: The deep - processing corn consumption has seasonally rebounded, but the deep - processing corn inventory is at a low level. The starch processing profit has worsened, and the starch inventory is at a high level. Alcohol production has declined, and the processing profit has decreased. The demand for starch in the beverage industry is poor, while the papermaking start - up rate is high but the profit has declined. Wheat prices have slightly increased, and the flour demand is weak [67][75][87][105] - **Futures Registration**: The report shows the number of corn futures registered warehouse receipts through a chart [113] 3.4 Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: The 2025/2026 corn inventory - to - consumption ratios of major exporting countries have been lowered, and it presents the global corn production and its distribution, as well as the inventory - to - consumption ratios of the US and other major exporting countries [118][122][123] - **Export Situation**: US corn export sales have performed well, and it presents the export sales volume, cumulative export sales volume, and export sales volume to China of US corn through charts [125][126][130]

（文章来源：新华财经） 据船运调查机构SGS公布数据显示，预计马来西亚1月1-10日棕榈油出口量为325955吨，较上月同期出 口的280048吨增加16.4%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the prices of various market commodities in Yiyuan County, Shandong Province, showed stability in some categories while experiencing fluctuations in others, particularly with noticeable increases in vegetable and fruit prices [1][2][3] Group 2 - Prices of staple foods and secondary products remained stable, with examples including salt at 2 yuan/kg, sugar at 5 yuan/bag, and tofu at 3 yuan/kg, showing little change compared to the previous month [1] - Grain and oil prices also maintained stability, with prices for items like noodles at 2.4 yuan/kg and corn flour at 3 yuan/kg remaining consistent with the previous month [1] - Production material prices exhibited mixed trends, with a slight decrease in gasoline and diesel prices averaging a drop of about 2.7%, while fertilizer prices increased by approximately 6.2% [1] - Raw grain prices saw a slight increase, with wheat and corn prices averaging a rise of about 0.9% [2] - Prices for live pigs and piglets experienced a decline, with live pig prices around 12.6 yuan/kg and piglet prices at 22 yuan/kg, reflecting an average decrease of 3.3% [2] - Meat and egg prices also saw a slight decrease, with average prices for various meats and eggs dropping by about 1.2% [2] - Fruit prices showed a significant increase, with an average rise of 11.3%, including apples at 5 yuan/kg and bananas at 2 yuan/kg [3] - Vegetable prices began to rise, with an average increase of 10.2%, particularly notable in eggplant and green chili prices, which rose by 60% and 100% respectively [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Palladium, Platinum, Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Coke, BR Rubber, PTA, LPG [1] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, PVC [1] - Neutral: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Iron Ore, Black Metals, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Soybean Oil, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Ethylene Glycol, Asian Styrene, Propylene, Butadiene [1] Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short - term, driven by sufficient market funds and positive macro - fundamentals [1]. - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks [1]. - Different commodities have different price trends based on their own supply - demand situations, policy factors, and macro - economic conditions [1]. Summary by Categories Stock Index - The stock index broke through strongly with heavy volume last week, opening up a new upward space. With positive macro - fundamental data, it is expected to maintain an upward pattern in the short - term [1]. Bond Futures - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to stabilize and rebound despite a recent high - level decline [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be strong due to supply - side restrictions [1]. - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate as they are near the cost line despite weak industrial fundamentals [1]. - Zinc prices have risen recently due to good macro - sentiment, but caution is needed regarding the upside space [1]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with increased risk, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies, macro - sentiment, and futures positions [1]. - Stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - Tin prices are affected by market sentiment, and caution is needed for capital withdrawal [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term but with significant fluctuations [1]. - The short - term pattern of weak platinum and strong palladium may continue, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the long - term [1]. - Industrial silicon is bearish due to production changes and reduced production schedules in related industries [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon has factors such as a traditional peak season for new energy vehicles,旺盛 demand for energy storage, and increased supply resumption [1]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise rapidly in the short - term [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Short - term sentiment and funds play a greater role than industrial contradictions, and long positions with stop - losses can be considered [1]. - Iron ore has obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Black metals are in a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, with potential supply disturbances [1]. - Glass prices are supported in the short - term but face over - supply pressure in the medium - term [1]. - Soda ash prices follow glass and are more loosely supplied in the medium - term, facing pressure [1]. - Coking coal may have room to rise if the "capacity reduction" expectation continues, but the actual increase is hard to judge [1]. - Coke has a similar logic to coking coal [1]. Oils - Palm oil is expected to be bearish in December according to MPOB data but may reverse later, and short - term rebounds due to macro - sentiment should be watched [1]. - Soybean oil has a strong fundamental and is recommended for long - allocation in oils [1]. - Rapeseed oil may have a trading logic change, and there is still room for price decline [1]. Agricultural Products - Cotton is in a situation of having support but no driving force, and future policies and market conditions should be watched [1]. - Sugar has a global surplus and increased domestic supply, and attention should be paid to capital changes [1]. - Corn sales progress has slowed but is still fast year - on - year, and the spot price is firm in the short - term [1]. - Bean粕 is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [1]. - Pulp prices are affected by macro - commodity fluctuations, and cautious observation is recommended [1]. - Log prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range [1]. - Live pigs' supply capacity still needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil has a risk of rising due to geopolitical factors, but there are also factors such as increased supply and weakening demand [1]. - Fuel oil is affected by factors similar to crude oil [1]. - Asphalt has factors such as high profit and potential supply changes [1]. - BR rubber has factors such as reduced upward momentum in the short - term and positive factors for future butadiene exports [1]. - PTA has a recent price increase not due to fundamental changes but has fundamental support in the future [1]. - Ethylene glycol rebounded due to supply - side news [1]. - Asian styrene is in a weak - balance state, and short - term upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Propylene has cost support and geopolitical risks [1]. - PVC is expected to face over - supply in 2026, and there is a possibility of capacity clearance [1]. - LPG has factors such as increased import costs, geopolitical risks, and changing inventory trends [1].

（文章来源：新华财经） 据马来西亚独立检验机构AmSpec，马来西亚1月1-10日棕榈油出口量为466457吨，较上月同期出口的 396477吨增加17.65%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "New Year Economy" is gaining momentum across China, driven by strong consumer demand and a focus on quality upgrades in products and services [1] Group 1: Market Activity - Various markets across China are experiencing high consumer traffic and transaction volumes, such as over 1.2 million tons of daily transactions in Changsha and significant growth in Fuzhou's fruit market [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is promoting local specialties and quality agricultural products through initiatives like brand directories and live-streaming sales [1] Group 2: Quality Upgrade - Consumers are increasingly seeking high-quality products for the New Year, indicating a shift from merely having goods to desiring premium offerings [1] - Local producers are encouraged to enhance the quality of agricultural products and crafts, tapping into regional resources to meet consumer demands [1] Group 3: Scene Innovation - Innovative consumer experiences are being developed, such as transforming traditional markets into clean, spacious venues and integrating cultural performances with dining experiences [1] - The focus is on creating immersive shopping experiences that combine local culture and modern retail, enhancing consumer engagement [1] Group 4: Long-term Empowerment - The strong performance of the "New Year Economy" is seen as a foundation for sustained economic growth throughout the year, emphasizing the role of consumption as a key driver [1] - Initiatives like issuing consumption vouchers and creating food tourism routes are being implemented to stimulate long-term consumer activity [1] - Establishing mechanisms to connect holiday shopping with everyday consumption is crucial for maintaining momentum in the market [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Apple - The trading atmosphere in the national apple market has warmed up, with increased market activity. High - quality apples are in short supply and prices are firm, but high prices may suppress consumption. Other fruits, such as citrus, have price advantages and squeeze the apple market. The inventory of ordinary apples is under pressure. Due to low inventory and a low rate of high - quality apples, the futures market has been oscillating upwards recently, and the delivery profit has been repaired. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking progress [1][5]. Red Dates - Affected by the warming sentiment in the commodity market, the futures market has rebounded and the basis has converged. The purchase in the production areas is basically over, and processing enterprises are actively arranging production and accelerating the shipment rhythm. New and old stocks are being supplied to the market. Currently, downstream buyers are purchasing as needed, and the number of buyers inspecting goods has increased, but there has been no significant improvement in transactions. The process of generating new - season warehouse receipts has accelerated. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, the rebound of red date futures is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival stocking and actual de - stocking progress [8]. Sugar - Internationally, the market's focus has shifted to Brazil's 26/27 sugar - cane crushing season starting in April. Since December, rainfall in most major producing areas in the central - southern region has exceeded the average, which is beneficial for the growth of sugar - cane in the 26/27 season and has improved the production outlook. The market initially expects the sugar - cane yield per unit area to increase by about 3% year - on - year. In India, production is strong, with cumulative sugar production reaching 11.83 million tons as of the end of December, a 24% year - on - year increase. However, due to the lack of price competitiveness, the current export progress is slow. In Thailand, the sugar - cane crushing season is progressing slowly. Domestically, the production and sales data of Guangxi and Yunnan are mixed, generally in line with market expectations. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises still have a certain scale of procurement demand, which can support prices. However, considering the current situation of increased production, market participants are generally cautious. It is expected that sugar prices will maintain a low - level oscillating trend [9]. Cotton - The drought index in the US cotton - producing areas continues to rise, in line with the expectations of a weak La Nina winter. However, the profits of Xinjiang textile enterprises and the cash flow of inland textile enterprises have been compressed to a low level, and the positive factors in the industrial fundamentals have been fully priced in. The widening gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices will gradually allow imported cotton to enter the market with a 40% tariff, and the unfavorable factors for Zhengzhou cotton are gradually increasing. Overall, the upward trend remains unchanged. In the short term, cotton prices may enter an adjustment phase. Attention should be paid to the support level around the 14,100 - 14,300 moving average [11]. Oils and Fats - After the release of the USDA monthly report at the beginning of the week, the uncertainty makes it unlikely for funds to continue to go long on CBOT soybeans. Moreover, as Brazilian soybeans are about to be on the market, even if CBOT soybeans rise, they will likely correct later. The market is waiting for guidance from the USDA report. If the report causes CBOT soybeans to rise, the March contract of CBOT soybeans will test the resistance at 50 cents. Malaysian palm oil futures have been oscillating upwards, waiting for the MPOB supply - demand report next Monday. The international oil market has been boosted by the more than 3% increase in the US crude oil futures price and the follow - up rise of US soybeans, which is beneficial for the domestic vegetable oil market. The negative impact of the news of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China has been basically digested, and short - selling funds have taken profits and left the market. The rapeseed oil futures have rebounded above 9,000 yuan. Before the release of key information such as the US agricultural supply - demand report, Malaysian palm oil inventory data, and possible policy changes after the China - Canada meeting, the futures market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillating pattern. In the spot market, the wait - and - see sentiment is still strong, and downstream buyers are replenishing stocks in small quantities as needed. Spot prices fluctuate with the market, and the basis quotation continues to be high [12]. Eggs - On the supply side, the recent increase in egg prices has improved breeding profitability, leading to a decrease in farmers' enthusiasm for culling laying hens. The number of newly - laid hens has increased slightly compared with the previous period. However, due to the influence of weather, the egg weight has increased rapidly, resulting in a significant shortage of small and medium - sized eggs compared with large - sized eggs. The market shows a structural differentiation. Considering factors such as increased production capacity and reduced culling, the current market supply is still in an oversupply stage. On the demand side, food enterprises are in the peak production season, and their procurement volume is continuously increasing. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, the festival stocking plans of all links in the terminal consumer market have been gradually launched, and the willingness to purchase at low prices has increased. However, there has been no significant change in the procurement intensity of household consumption. The current increase in demand is mainly reflected in the inventory turnover of the trading link. In the coming week, pre - Spring Festival stocking will still be the core driving force for market demand growth. After the recent price increase, the market has short - term digestion pressure and may experience a slight decline. However, the positive support factors in the market are clear, and it is expected that after a short - term adjustment, there may still be a slight increase. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around the previous high of 3,100 [13]. Corn - On the supply side, in the Northeast region, the price is strongly supported by the price - holding attitude of grass - roots farmers and the rigid - demand stocking of some downstream enterprises. In the North China region, the supply can meet the needs of enterprises, and the supply - demand is relatively balanced, with prices oscillating within a narrow range. If the supply increases before the Spring Festival, prices may weaken. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises still have the intention to replenish stocks, but their profits are slightly in the red, and they are less willing to accept high - priced corn. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventories and mainly replenish stocks on a rolling basis. On the policy side, the targeted auction of imported corn continues, and although there is a premium, it has cooled down. The policy - based corn supply is currently limited, and attention should be paid to its subsequent intensity. In general, the strong price - holding sentiment and the rigid - demand stocking intention of downstream enterprises support the corn price. However, the profit losses of downstream enterprises limit their acceptance of high prices, and the continuous policy - based supply suppresses the upward momentum of corn prices. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 2,270, as well as changes in farmers' selling attitudes and policy - based supply [16]. Live Pigs - The spot price has returned to an oscillating pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has significantly declined. The supply in the north has decreased, while the demand in the south has dropped significantly, and purchasing power is weak, suppressing the spot price. Recently, there has been some restocking for secondary fattening in some areas, but due to the relatively high current pig price, the overall enthusiasm is limited. However, the average weight of the存栏 has been increasing, and the subsequent market supply is expected to increase. The market is betting on pre - Spring Festival consumption, but it is expected that pigs will be slaughtered gradually in mid - to - late January. Coupled with the expected increase in supply from large - scale farms, the overall supply in January will be relatively loose, and there is limited room for further upward movement in the futures market. It is recommended to short at high prices [18][19]. Meal - The US soybeans are strongly influenced by funds and sentiment. The market is looking forward to the USDA supply - demand report on Monday, which may provide new trading guidance. In China, the speed of soybean purchases is relatively fast, and the supply will be continuously supplemented by US soybeans and reserve auctions. The visit of Canada to China has brought positive signals, and there is an expectation of improved China - Canada relations, which has led to a significant decline in domestic rapeseed prices and dragged down the soybean meal market. The domestic spot market remains in a loose pattern, with high inventories of soybeans and soybean meal. There are also many expectations of auctions recently, which also put pressure on the market. Although the expected arrival volume in the first quarter is low, the arrival rhythm is uncertain. The downside of soybean meal is limited, and the upside is mainly affected by policy factors. In the short term, the market sentiment is relatively optimistic, and the futures market will maintain a range - bound oscillation [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple - **Futures Market**: The price of the apple 2605 (main contract) increased by 158 yuan/ton to 9,689 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.66%. The price of the apple 2610 contract increased by 21 yuan/ton to 8,472 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.25%. The futures open interest increased by 23,520 lots to 156,793 lots, a rise of 17.65% [1]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume at several fruit wholesale markets has increased, with the arrival volume at Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market increasing by 40%, Jiangmen Fruit Wholesale Market by 37.5%, and Xiaqiao Fruit Wholesale Market by 33.33%. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 126,600 tons to 7.209 million tons, a decline of 1.73% [1]. - **Profit**: The factory - warehouse delivery profit increased by 121 yuan/ton to 457 yuan/ton, a rise of 36.01% [1]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: The price of the red date 2605 (main contract) increased by 75 yuan/ton to 9,150 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.83%. The open interest increased by 4,234 lots to 154,819 lots, a rise of 2.81% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Cangzhou's extra - grade red dates increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,520 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.53%. The basis of extra - grade red dates in Cangzhou relative to the main contract increased by 205 yuan/ton to - 230 yuan/ton, a rise of 87.80% [8]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2605 increased by 9 yuan/ton to 5,288 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.17%. The open interest of the main contract increased by 3,135 lots to 432,813 lots, a rise of 0.73% [9]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5,370 yuan/ton. The basis in Nanning decreased by 9 yuan/ton to 82 yuan/ton, a decline of 9.89% [9]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production decreased by 317,900 tons to 1.05 million tons, a decline of 23.24%. The cumulative national sugar sales decreased by 259,000 tons to 350,000 tons, a decline of 42.53% [9]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 14,675 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.44%. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 13,905 lots to 848,986 lots, a decline of 1.61% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton of grade 3128B decreased by 67 yuan/ton to 15,671 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.43% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory increased by 1.1011 million tons to 5.784 million tons, a rise of 23.5%. The export of textile yarns, fabrics, and related products increased by 10.09 percentage points year - on - year to 0.98% [11]. Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 30 yuan/ton to 8,520 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.35%. The basis of the Y2605 contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 526 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.66% [12]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 60 yuan/ton to 8,680 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.70%. The basis of the P2605 contract decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton, a decline of 125% [12]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,800 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.03%. The basis of the OI2605 contract increased by 14 yuan/ton to 758 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.88% [12]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 03 contract increased by 31 yuan/500KG to 3,040 yuan/500KG, a rise of 1.03%. The price of the egg 04 contract increased by 39 yuan/500KG to 3,316 yuan/500KG, a rise of 1.19% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The price of eggs in the production areas remained unchanged at 3.25 yuan/jin. The price of egg - laying chicken chicks increased by 0.10 yuan/feather to 2.90 yuan/feather, a rise of 3.57% [13]. Corn - **Futures Market**: The price of corn 2603 decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 2,263 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.13%. The open interest increased by 21,598 lots to 1,969,700 lots, a rise of 1.11% [16]. - **Spot Market**: The FOB price at Jinzhou Port increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,330 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.43%. The basis increased by 13 yuan/ton to 67 yuan/ton, a rise of 24.07% [16]. Live Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the live - pig 2605 contract decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 1,120 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.08%. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 2,847 lots to 168,424 lots, a decline of 1.66% [18]. - **Spot Market**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses increased by 903 to 226,460, a rise of 0.40%. The price of piglets increased by 1.0 yuan/head to 16.50 yuan/head, a rise of 6.45% [19]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,150 yuan/ton. The price of the M2605 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 2,786 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.14%. The basis decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 364 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.09% [21]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,420 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.82%. The price of the RM2605 contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,338 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.85%. The basis remained unchanged at 82 yuan/ton [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides insights into supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and investment suggestions for each category [2][3][4] Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Tensions in the Iranian geopolitical situation and the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers have increased short - term upward pressure on oil prices, but inventory pressure and supply surplus limit the upside [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors have led to wide - range fluctuations in fuel oil prices. High - sulfur fuel oil may see increased demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply - side pressure [22] - **Bitumen**: Oil price rebounds have not been fully followed by bitumen. Venezuelan oil supply disruptions may impact bitumen raw materials in the future [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: With mixed US employment data and ongoing global geopolitical unrest, precious metals are challenging previous highs [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Prices are affected by US employment data, geopolitical situations, and domestic production and inventory. An option strategy has been proposed [4] - **Aluminum**: Short - term price movements are driven by funds, and there is a divergence from fundamentals. High profits may prompt aluminum plants to sell for hedging [5] - **Zinc**: Consumption is expected to be front - loaded in 2026, but the market may range - bound due to cost support and supply - side factors [8] - **Lead**: The market is range - bound, and attention should be paid to cost - related support [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of shock, with inventory changes and policy sentiment influencing prices [10] - **Tin**: LME tin prices have risen, and domestic prices are supported. Attention is on inventory changes [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices are oscillating at a high level, with supply - demand factors driving the market [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is expected to be weak due to supply - demand imbalances [13] - **Polysilicon**: A new policy has changed the trading logic, and prices may seek cost support [14] Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices are oscillating, with demand and inventory showing different trends. Steel mill profits are improving, and iron - water production is rising [15] - **Iron Ore**: The market has rebounded, but there are risks of high - level volatility due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Both are expected to have a relatively strong and oscillating trend, with considerations for supply - demand and policy factors [17][18] - **Silicomanganese & Ferrosilicon**: For both, it is recommended to buy on dips, considering supply - demand and policy impacts [19][20] Chemicals - **Urea**: The market is expected to oscillate strongly within a range as spring agricultural demand approaches [24] - **Methanol**: Import expectations are reduced, but high coastal inventories and downstream feedback may suppress the market [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term market is expected to oscillate, and a positive spread strategy may be considered in the medium - term [26] - **Styrene**: The market is in a state of consolidation due to cost and inventory factors [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene**: Market sentiment varies, with supply - demand factors influencing prices [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may have short - term trading opportunities and long - term price increases. Caustic soda is oscillating, with supply - demand and profit factors at play [29] - **PX & PTA**: Demand will decline during the Spring Festival, but cost support from oil prices exists. PX has a strong medium - term outlook [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market will be under pressure in the short - term and may improve in the second quarter, but long - term pressure remains [31] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The market is waiting for the USDA report. South American production expectations and weather are key factors, and prices may be weak [36] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil & Palm Oil)**: The market is expected to oscillate, with attention on palm oil export tax policies and inventory [37] - **Canola & Canola Oil**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the focus on the impact of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China [38] - **Soybean No. 1**: The futures contract is in a downward trend, and attention should be paid to policies and market guidance [39] - **Corn**: The futures market is expected to oscillate widely, with attention on sales progress and auctions [40] - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pigs**: Short - term price support may come from secondary fattening, but long - term supply pressure exists [41] - **Eggs**: The market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and a long - position strategy is recommended [42] - **Cotton**: The market is expected to adjust, with attention on supply - demand and policy factors [43] - **Sugar**: The market is oscillating, with differences in international and domestic production progress [44] - **Apples**: The futures price has rebounded, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory removal [45] - **Wood**: The price is at a low level, and the market is recommended to be observed [46] - **Pulp**: The market is oscillating, and short - term upward potential is limited [47] Financial Derivatives - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: A new policy may push up short - term freight rates, but the long - term impact is uncertain [21] Financial Markets - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is expected to oscillate strongly, with growth and cyclical styles potentially outperforming [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market is slightly down, and attention should be paid to the flattening of the yield curve [49]