相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国生猪养殖行业市场调查研究及投资策略研究报告》 2025年8月，全国仔猪（普通）集贸市场价格当期值为33.6元/公斤，比2025年7月下降1.83元/公斤，环 比下滑5.2%，降幅减少2.7个百分点，同比下滑21.2%，降幅减少6.4个百分点。 数据来源：国家统计局 近一年全国仔猪（普通）集贸市场价格统计图 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shennong Group's stock has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.06% and a year-to-date increase of 11.48%, indicating volatility in the market [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shennong Group reported a revenue of 2.798 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.16% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 388 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 212.65% [2]. Shareholder Information - As of September 20, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shennong Group increased to 20,700, with an average of 25,309 circulating shares per shareholder, a slight decrease of 0.12% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 331 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 131 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Performance and Market Activity - As of September 23, Shennong Group's stock price was 30.88 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 16.199 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a net outflow of 4.0878 million yuan in principal funds, with large orders accounting for 10.35% of purchases and 18.13% of sales [1]. Business Overview - Shennong Group, established on August 9, 1999, and listed on May 28, 2021, primarily engages in the production and sale of feed products, pig farming, slaughtering, and pork sales [1]. - The revenue composition includes 76.08% from live pigs, 18.37% from pork products and by-products, 3.72% from feed, 0.94% from deep processing products, and 0.89% from other sources [1].

Summary of Haida Group's Conference Call Company Overview - Haida Group focuses on aquaculture feed, which is the core profit driver, particularly in domestic and international markets [2][4] - The aquaculture industry chain is fragmented, allowing leading companies to dominate changes and penetrate various segments like seedlings and feed, creating a comprehensive service loop to enhance farming efficiency [2] Key Insights Industry Dynamics - Significant differences exist between aquaculture and livestock farming. Aquaculture upstream is highly fragmented, giving leading companies stronger bargaining power, while livestock farming is more centralized with large enterprises holding more influence [2][6] - Haida Group holds approximately 20% market share in domestic aquaculture feed, with some core varieties reaching 40%-50% in specific regions. Long-term potential exists to increase this to 40%-50% [2][9] - The livestock feed market share is around 10%, with a long-term target of over 15% [2][9] Business Strategy - The strategy for the pig farming segment focuses on cost optimization rather than aggressive growth, with expected stable production levels of 6-7 million pigs over the next two years [2][11] - Haida Group's diversified operations in aquaculture, poultry, and pig feed allow for a robust procurement system and negotiation advantages, thereby reducing costs and solidifying its cost leadership position [2][13] Market Performance and Growth - The aquaculture feed market is performing well this year, with positive growth expected to continue into the next year, despite some marginal changes in overall growth rates [3] - The international strategy has shown significant results, with leading positions in markets like Vietnam, Egypt, and Indonesia, and plans to double overseas business volume by 2030, primarily in aquaculture feed [5][16] Competitive Advantages - Haida Group's core competitiveness in feed business lies in its strong position in aquaculture feed, which remains the most important profit source despite the rapid growth of livestock feed sales [4] - The company has implemented innovative management practices, enhancing operational efficiency and creating a closed-loop development model for feed, seedlings, and health products [14][15] Financial Projections - The pure feed business segment is expected to see profits grow by over 20%, while the pig farming segment is projected to maintain profitability above 1 billion RMB [5][29] - Overall profit for the current year is estimated to exceed 5 billion RMB, with projections for the next year reaching 6 billion RMB, indicating a growth rate of approximately 25-30% [29] Market Trends - The aquaculture industry is expected to experience growth driven by supply-demand changes and price cycles, with specific species like the California sea bass showing strong price performance [20][21] - The pig feed market may face challenges due to high supply levels, but long-term trends suggest potential price recovery and demand stabilization [23] Conclusion - Haida Group's diversified approach, strong market positioning, and innovative strategies provide a solid foundation for future growth, with optimistic projections for market share and profitability across various segments [30]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Swine Industry Industry Overview - The swine industry is entering a substantive regulatory phase, with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Agriculture holding multiple meetings to adjust the number of breeding sows, targeting a reduction of 1 million by year-end to combat deflationary pressures [1][2][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Regulatory Focus**: The current regulatory measures are primarily aimed at large-scale breeding farms rather than smallholders, ensuring economic stability. Approximately 30 major enterprises hold a market share of about 32% and have begun implementing measures such as reducing weight and limiting breeding sows [1][3][5]. - **Profitability and Price Control**: The swine industry remains profitable, but price control is necessary to manage the Consumer Price Index (CPI), as meat prices significantly impact CPI. The average price of pork is expected to stabilize around 15-16 yuan next year, with a potential peak of 18 yuan [2][7][8]. - **Market Dynamics**: The current average weight of pigs at slaughter is nearing the critical point of 120 kg, limiting further reductions. A significant decrease in breeding sows is anticipated in Q4, which could positively impact the market if the target of 1 million is achieved [4][6]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Investment Cycle**: The investment cycle in the swine industry is expected to extend to two to three years, with a focus on leading enterprises like Muyuan Foods, which has a low cost structure and strong performance metrics. The dividend payout ratio has increased from 42% to 48% this year, indicating financial health [10][12]. - **Risks from Epidemics**: The potential resurgence of epidemics, particularly in northern regions during the colder months, poses a risk to the market, especially in a declining price environment [9]. - **Valuation and Future Outlook**: The current market valuation of the swine sector is considered reasonable, with a shift in investment focus towards leading companies due to production limitations imposed by policies. The expected market capitalization for Muyuan Foods could reach 420-430 billion yuan if a 12x valuation is applied [11][12]. Conclusion - The swine industry is undergoing significant regulatory changes aimed at stabilizing prices and managing supply. Key players are adapting to these changes, and while the market faces challenges, particularly from potential epidemics, there are opportunities for investment in leading enterprises with strong fundamentals.

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand of live pigs in the spot market are loose, and the price remains weak. Although the demand has increased, the continuous increase is not obvious, and the supply pressure is relatively greater. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival. The 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak demand season, and the supply - demand margin may improve, but they are mainly dragged down by the weak spot market [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 22nd, the main live pig contract 2511 opened slightly higher, then fluctuated and declined after reaching a high, closing with a negative candle. The highest price was 12,920 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,780 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,795 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 648 lots to 247,641 lots [8]. - **Spot Market**: On the 22nd, the average price of三元 pigs nationwide was 12.67 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Supply - side**: In September, the planned sales volume of sample breeding enterprises was 25.7 million heads, an increase of 970,000 heads or 3.92% compared with the actual slaughter in August, with a daily average increase of 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens remains high, and there is still pressure on slaughter. The slaughter weight has slightly declined. In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs before the Spring Festival may still maintain a slight growth trend [9]. - **Demand - side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly widened, and the fattening cost is still low. Currently, second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Although the weather has turned cooler, the continuous increase in demand is not obvious, and the sales of white - striped pigs are slow. There is no obvious positive news. In the second half of the month, the slaughter volume has increased, the enterprise's operating rate has slightly increased, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On September 22nd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 153,200 heads, a decrease of 400 heads from the previous day, an increase of 13,700 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 9,100 heads month - on - month [9]. 2. Industry News - As of September 18th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising live pig was 7.7 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 46 yuan/head; the average profit per purchased piglet for fattening was - 246.6 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 70.8 yuan/head [10][12]. 3. Data Overview - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of September 18th was 358 yuan/head, a decrease of 36 yuan/head from the previous week [15]. - The price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of September 18th was 0.16 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan/jin [15]. - The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg in the week of September 18th was 12.71 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.47 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 12.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous week [15]. - The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises in the week of September 18th was 31.77%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from the previous week and 2.22 percentage points year - on - year. The weekly operating rate fluctuated in the range of 31.54 - 31.80 [15]. - As of the week of September 18th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 128.45 kg, an increase of 0.13 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% [15].

Core Insights - The live pig market has experienced fluctuations in prices, with a peak of 15.3 yuan/kg in early July, followed by a decline due to increased supply and weak demand [1] - As of September 22, the average price of live pigs was 12.67 yuan/kg, with regional variations [1] - The breeding sow inventory remains stable, with slight fluctuations, indicating no significant reduction in production capacity [2] Price Trends - Live pig prices surged in early July but have since declined due to increased supply and weak consumer demand [1] - The futures market for live pigs saw a peak in July, followed by a downward trend, with the main contract dropping to 12,770 yuan/ton by September 19 [1] Breeding Inventory - The national breeding sow inventory was reported at 40.42 million heads as of July 2025, showing minimal change [2] - Profitability in pig sales has remained positive, preventing a significant reduction in breeding capacity [2] Production Efficiency - Improvements in breeding techniques and management have led to increased production efficiency, with the potential for further enhancements through advanced technologies [3] Supply Pressure - An increase in the supply of live pigs is expected from September to November 2025, with supply levels higher than in previous years [4] - The average weight of pigs at market is also anticipated to exceed historical levels, contributing to supply pressure [4] Policy and External Factors - Domestic policies aimed at regulating pig production and managing supply are crucial for market dynamics [5] - External factors, such as import tariffs and seasonal disease risks, may also impact the market [6] Market Outlook - The short-term outlook for the live pig market remains weak due to high supply and limited demand [6] - A potential seasonal rebound in prices is expected in the fourth quarter, but overall supply pressure will continue to limit price increases [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the ongoing adjustment in the pig industry, highlighting the potential for value reassessment due to production capacity control and low-cost performance realization [3][16] - The poultry sector is expected to see improvements in fundamentals, with a focus on the white feather chicken breeding segment and price trends [4][29] - The animal health sector is witnessing a competitive landscape improvement and technological innovation, with several new products receiving clinical approval [5][37] - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly emerging, indicating sustained profitability improvements in the sector [9][59] Summary by Sections Pig Industry - Continuous deepening of pig price control measures is noted, with a focus on maintaining prices within a reasonable range [3][16] - Current average pig price is 13.15 yuan/kg, with a slight weekly decline [15] - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with ongoing recommendations for Juxing Agriculture and Shennong Group [3][16] Poultry Industry - The white feather chicken breeding segment shows potential for improvement, with significant updates in breeding stock [4][29] - Current prices for white feather chicken and related products are stable, with slight fluctuations noted [27][28] Animal Health Industry - The competitive landscape is improving, with notable profit differentiation among leading companies [5][36] - Several new vaccines have received clinical approval, marking significant advancements in the sector [5][37] Planting Industry - Prices for corn and soybean meal have shown a week-on-week decline, with ongoing commercialization of genetically modified seeds benefiting early adopters [7][42] Feed Industry - Feed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a noted increase in production volume [8][48] - Recommended companies include Haida Group, with a focus on rising industry concentration [8][49] Pet Industry - The pet market is projected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a notable increase in consumer spending on pets [9][58] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co., with a focus on the growing pet medical segment [9][59]

Group 1 - The overall industry selection framework focuses on resources, new productive forces, and globalization [2] - Resource stocks are shifting from cyclical attributes to dividend attributes due to supply constraints and global geopolitical expectations [2] - The globalization of leading Chinese manufacturing companies is expected to convert market share advantages into pricing power and profit margin improvements [2] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by the demand for assets and capital market reforms aimed at improving investor returns [3] - The recent communication between Chinese and U.S. leaders indicates a stabilization of short-term risk outlook [3] - The upcoming reforms in the capital market, including the launch of the growth tier on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, are anticipated to accelerate market adjustments [3] Group 3 - The current market remains in a consolidation phase since September, with a positive funding environment supporting the ongoing trend [4] - The key factor for the continuation of the positive feedback from the funding side is the profitability effect [4] - Focus areas for investment include domestic computing power chains, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, chemicals, batteries, and leading consumer stocks [4] Group 4 - The three main drivers of the current upward trend in A-shares remain unchanged, with a focus on low penetration sectors [5] - Attention is drawn to solid-state batteries, AI computing power, humanoid robots, and commercial aerospace [5] - The market is still in a bull market phase, with expectations for further growth [5] Group 5 - There has been significant inflow of both domestic and foreign capital into the Chinese stock market, with a notable increase in passive fund inflows [6] - The reduction in positions in high-priced options indicates a cautious outlook for the Shanghai Composite Index [6] - Overall, the long-term outlook for the Shanghai Composite Index remains bullish [6] Group 6 - The market is currently experiencing a rotation among sectors, with a focus on individual stocks rather than indices [7] - Key areas of interest include humanoid robots, AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [7] - The market is expected to continue its rotation while maintaining a high level of focus on individual stock performance [7] Group 7 - The current market conditions suggest that a bull market driven by improving corporate earnings is in the making [8] - Opportunities are identified in upstream resources, capital goods, and raw materials due to improved operating conditions [8] - Domestic demand-related sectors are also expected to present opportunities as earnings recover [8] Group 8 - The market is transitioning from a focus on existing stocks to an expansion of new opportunities driven by incremental capital [9] - The emphasis is on identifying opportunities based on industry trends and economic conditions rather than merely switching between high and low positions [9] - The market is expected to see a broadening of investment opportunities as new capital flows in [9] Group 9 - The potential for low-position stocks to experience a rebound is increasing as the market approaches the fourth quarter [10] - Historical trends indicate that stocks that performed well in the third quarter may not continue their momentum into the fourth quarter [10] - The focus is on cyclical stocks and those benefiting from global pricing resources as key areas for investment in the upcoming quarter [10] Group 10 - The recovery of free cash flow in export-advantaged manufacturing sectors is anticipated due to policy changes and global re-industrialization [11] - The valuation system for China's advantageous manufacturing sectors is expected to undergo systematic restructuring [11] - The return of global capital to China is likely to drive a bullish trend in high-end manufacturing sectors [12]

Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy has shown a differentiated catalytic effect on the market, with significant excess returns in most industries like batteries relative to the CSI 300 index, while the coal industry has not outperformed the index [2][5][15] - The implementation of the "anti-involution" policy has led to a recovery in factory prices from the supply side, but this has not yet translated to consumer prices at the residential level [2][22] - Since July, prices of polysilicon and thermal coal have stabilized and rebounded significantly, indicating the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on price recovery [2][34] Market Performance - From July 1 to September 19, 2025, the battery sector saw a 41.13% increase, while the coal sector only increased by 7.36%, compared to a 14.38% rise in the CSI 300 index [15][16] - The coal production in August was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, while coal prices have stabilized, contributing to the coal sector's recent performance [5][14] Policy Developments - Since June, new "anti-involution" policies have been introduced, emphasizing self-discipline and legal norms to promote capacity optimization, with more noticeable effects in quantifiable areas [6][16] - The effectiveness of these policies may vary, with some sectors lacking quantitative policy support, leading to temporary inefficiencies in supply contraction [6][16] Inflation Data - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown signs of recovery, with an August year-on-year decline of 2.9%, a narrowing of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [22][27] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has seen an expanded year-on-year decline, primarily due to a drop in consumer goods prices, with food and beverage prices down by 2.5% [27][31] Industry Price Recovery - Since July, polysilicon prices have shown a significant upward trend, reaching an average price of 50 yuan per kilogram by September 19, 2025 [34][38] - Other materials have experienced short-term price increases followed by a return to a downward trend, indicating a mixed recovery across sectors [34][36] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue on a "slow bull" trend, driven by a revaluation of Chinese assets, with a focus on sectors benefiting from supply-side improvements and policy expectations [7][45] - Key sectors to watch include metals, transportation, chemicals, lithium batteries, photovoltaic, and pig farming, which are anticipated to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies [7][41][45]

Group 1: Swine Farming - The national average price of pork has dropped to 13.2 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.36 yuan/kg week-on-week, attributed to increased supply and weak demand [1] - Supply is expected to face pressure in September due to slow slaughter progress before mid-September and early slaughter after the National Day holiday, leading to overall price pressure [1] - The government will begin a frozen pork reserve of 15,000 tons on September 23, and the effectiveness of this reserve in stabilizing prices will depend on the volume and frequency of storage [1] Group 2: Agriculture and Seed Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has released a new batch of genetically modified corn and soybean varieties, including 96 corn and 2 soybean varieties, with companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong receiving approvals [2] - Most new varieties exhibit pest resistance and herbicide tolerance, with some showing yield increases of over 9% in 2024 production trials, indicating accelerated innovation in China's seed industry [2] - The supportive policy for high-performing varieties is expected to enhance competition and innovation in the seed industry [2] Group 3: Pet Industry - On Douyin, brands like Myfoodie, Weishi, and Blue's ranked highest in daily sales, while Zhongchong's brands saw significant improvements in rankings [3] - The focus of pet brand innovation is shifting from merely pleasing pet owners to prioritizing pet health, with domestic brands showing stronger innovation capabilities [3]