Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade shows steady growth in the first four months of the year, with a total import and export value of 14.14 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.4% in yuan terms and 1.3% in dollar terms, indicating a recovery in the economy [1][2]. Trade Performance - In April, China's import and export value reached 3.84 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%. Exports saw a slight decline in growth rate to 9.3%, while imports turned from a decline to a growth of 0.8% [1][2]. - The export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 9.5%, accounting for over 60% of total exports. Key products such as automatic data processing equipment, integrated circuits, and automobiles saw growth rates of 5.6%, 14.7%, and 4% respectively [2]. - The import of crude oil increased by 0.5%, while imports of iron ore, coal, natural gas, soybeans, and refined oil saw a decrease, with overall prices (excluding refined oil) declining [2]. Trade Methods and Entities - General trade saw a year-on-year growth of 0.6%, making up 64% of total foreign trade. Processing trade and bonded logistics trade grew by 6.6% and 7% respectively [3]. - Private enterprises accounted for 8.05 trillion yuan in imports and exports, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, representing 56.9% of total foreign trade, marking a 2.3 percentage point increase from the previous year [3]. - Foreign-invested enterprises experienced a year-on-year growth of 1.9%, accelerating by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter [3]. Trade Partners - Trade with neighboring countries reached 5.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with growth accelerating by 1.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter. Notably, trade with ASEAN and Central Asian countries grew by 9.2% and 9.9% respectively [3]. Industry Analysis - The proportion of high-tech industries in exports has increased, enhancing resilience against external pressures such as tariffs. The focus on market diversification and the development of new business models like cross-border e-commerce is crucial for maintaining market share [4]. - The resilience of Chinese exports is attributed to three factors: the increased share of high-tech industries, the dominant role of private enterprises in responding quickly to global market demands, and the proactive expansion into neighboring markets [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View After the May Day holiday, the oil and fat sector continued to decline, with palm oil leading the drop. The egg price gap dropped, and the apple price fluctuated greatly. Different agricultural products showed different trends due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and policies [2]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - Key points: The main 2509 contract of palm oil continued to decline after May Day. The production in the palm oil - producing areas increased smoothly, and the inventory was expected to rise. The domestic purchase volume increased and the cost decreased. Technical indicators showed weakness. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 7880 and resistance at 8000 [3][4] (2) Soybean Oil - Key points: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil oscillated and declined. The external market price dropped, and the domestic supply was expected to improve. Technical indicators turned weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 7714 and resistance at 7742 [5] (3) Soybean Meal - Key points: The main 2509 contract of soybean meal continued to decline with oscillations. The external market price was under pressure, and the domestic supply was expected to increase. Technical indicators were weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 2865 and resistance at 2930 [7] (4) Corn - Key points: The main 2507 contract of corn rose first and then fell with oscillations, but the upward trend remained unchanged. Factors such as low remaining grain, reduced imports, and increased demand supported the price. Technical indicators were strong. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - long position at low prices, with support at 2358 and resistance at 2384 [9] (5) Live Pigs - Key points: The 2509 contract of live pigs first declined and then rose with oscillations, but the downward trend remained. The supply pressure increased, and the demand support was insufficient. Technical indicators showed a downward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position at high prices, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14000 [12] (6) Sugar - Key points: The main 2509 contract of sugar opened low and closed high with oscillations. Good sales and approaching peak consumption season supported the price. The price was still under the moving - average pressure. The recommended strategy was short - term trading, with support at 5866 and resistance at 5900 [13][15] (7) Eggs - Key points: The main 2506 contract of eggs continued to decline with a large gap. The supply was sufficient, and the demand decreased during the holiday. Technical indicators were weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 2852 and resistance at 2900 [16] (8) Cotton - Key points: The main 2509 contract of cotton opened high and closed low. The textile industry entered the off - season, and the demand was weak. Technical indicators showed a downward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 12600 and resistance at 12800 [18] (9) Apples - Key points: The main 2510 contract of apples opened high and closed low with large fluctuations, but the upward trend remained. Good sales during the holiday, low inventory, and possible yield reduction supported the price. Technical indicators showed an upward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a long position at low prices, with support at 7908 and resistance at 8000 [22] (10) Soybean No.1 - Key points: The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 rebounded. The reduction of remaining grain supported the price. Technical indicators turned strong. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - long position, with support at 4176 and resistance at 4246 [23][26]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in China's oil procurement strategy due to escalating US-China trade tensions, with Chinese refiners reducing oil imports from the US by up to 90% while increasing imports from Canada dramatically [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Procurement Changes - China's oil imports from Canada surged to 7.3 million barrels in March, reaching unprecedented levels, with expectations for further increases in April [1][3]. - The expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX) in Canada has facilitated easier access for Chinese imports of Alberta's oil sands, providing a stable and cost-effective supply to meet China's energy needs [3]. Group 2: Impact on US Oil Industry - The shift in orders from China to Canada has significantly impacted the US oil industry, leading to a substantial decline in US oil exports and a direct financial loss estimated in the billions, based on an international oil price of $61.5 per barrel [3][5]. - The reduction in oil orders has caused a ripple effect on the US supply chain and job market, resulting in revenue declines for related companies and potential layoffs, thereby exerting pressure on the US economy [5]. Group 3: Broader Trade Adjustments - In addition to oil, China has also adjusted its trade patterns for other commodities, such as soybeans, significantly increasing imports from Brazil and thereby reducing reliance on US agricultural products [6]. - These adjustments reflect China's proactive approach to mitigate the impacts of the trade war and reduce dependency on US goods, demonstrating the substantial costs incurred by the US as a result of the trade conflict [6]. Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - China's energy strategy adjustments are reshaping the international power balance, challenging the US's long-standing dominance in the energy sector and contributing to a more diversified geopolitical landscape [8]. - The transition of 7.3 million barrels of oil orders to Canada symbolizes a broader trend of China diversifying its energy partnerships, enhancing its energy security, and contributing to global energy market dynamics [8].

据《湖南日报》援引新加坡媒体报道，在农产品贸易领域，大豆作为美国对华出口的核心产品之一，一直占 据着重要地位，去年还占到美国对华出口农产品的28% 。然而，特朗普政府显然低估了中国应对贸易挑战的 决心和能力。 除了大豆市场，美国在其他领域的对华出口也遭受重创。在能源领域，2025年3月，中国对美液化天然气进 口"清零"，这是自2022年6月以来的首次。曾经作为中国LNG市场"五大供应国"之一的美国，出口量锐减，而 中国则加大从印尼、澳大利亚和文莱等国的采购力度，还与阿联酋签署了15年、每年100万吨的液化天然气 大单。在汽车领域，特朗普以"国家安全"为由对中国汽车加征关税，结果却为德国、日本和韩国等国的汽车 企业腾出了市场空间。 特朗普（资料图） 如今，美国空出来的市场份额已被其他国家迅速填补。阿联酋、巴西、澳大利亚、印尼、阿根廷等国与中国 构建起长期、稳定、非政治化的贸易关系网络，而美国在这个网络之外逐渐被边缘化。业内人士指出，留给 美国企业的时间已经不多，如果中美迟迟无法达成协议，等到市场被完全瓜分，美国企业想要重回中国市场 将难上加难。就像澳大利亚，其牛肉在2019年因莫里森政府的遏华政策几乎"百分百退 ...

金价延续跌势，海外市场恐慌情绪有所缓解，但贸易战短期并 没有明显的缓和迹象，其他国家预期陆续和美国进行谈判，但 中国推出反制措施后，特朗普再度施压。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 贝森特：预计在 4 月 9 日关税上调之前不会达成任何协议 综 特朗普最新表态没有考虑暂停加征关税，短期市场波动加剧， 市场风险偏好短期回升，流动性冲击暂时结束。 日度报告——综合晨报 新关税政策将会产生"重要影响" [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-08 宏观策略（黄金） 美联储理事库格勒：新关税政策将会产生"重要影响" 巴西大豆收获完成 87% 中美贸易战升级为当前市场主要矛盾，CBOT 大豆下跌，昨日巴 西 CNF 升贴水上涨但涨幅有限，昨日我国进口巴西豆成本甚至 较清明小长假前略降、豆粕期价涨幅有限。 有色金属（氧化铝） 西澳地区为主的海外氧化铝成交价格继续回落 氧化铝企业因担心长单客户损失、对成本下降的预期以及储备 现金流和产业链优势等因素，继续维持生产。 能源化工（原油） 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 商务部召开美资企业圆桌会 报 受关税冲击影响，A 股市场暴跌，主要指数跌幅高达 8%以上。 短期内 ...