1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, waiting for the strength of peak - season demand. Consider buying on dips due to low spot inventory. Focus on 3230 yuan for rebar and 3380 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Unilateral trading suggests cautious long positions, and arbitrage recommends going long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore. The iron - making water output in July will remain high, and steel mill profits will support raw materials, but there is a seesaw effect between coking coal, coke, and iron ore [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, speculative trading advises cautious long - chasing, and arbitrage suggests going long on coke and short on iron ore. For coking coal, speculative trading also advises cautious long - chasing, and arbitrage recommends going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China dropped from 3430 yuan/ton to 3390 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China fell from 3500 yuan/ton to 3440 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 3080 yuan/ton, while plate billet prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits from hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 48 yuan/ton to 333 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - Daily average iron - making water output increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a 1.1% increase. Five major steel products' production decreased by 1.2 to 867.0, a 0.1% decrease. Five major steel products' inventory decreased by 1.2 to 1336.5, a 0.1% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 1.6 to 10.1, a 13.6% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0 to 868.1, a 0.2% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt cost of some iron ore varieties changed. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 2.2 to 818.4 yuan/ton, a 0.3% decrease [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 130.7 to 2240.5 tons, a 5.5% decrease, while the global shipping volume (weekly) increased by 91.8 to 3200.9 tons, a 3.0% increase [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.2 to 242.2 tons, a 0.1% decrease. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume (weekly) decreased by 7.6 to 315.2 tons, a 2.4% decrease [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 104.2 to 13686.23 tons, a 0.8% decrease, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 63.1 to 8885.2 tons, a 0.7% increase [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1420 yuan/ton, a 2.2% increase. The 09 - contract price of coke increased by 44 yuan/ton to 1677 yuan/ton, a 2.7% increase [4]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1155 yuan/ton, a 1.7% decrease. The 09 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1117 yuan/ton, a 0.3% decrease [4]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4 to 64.6 tons, a 0.6% increase. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 4.3 to 862.3 tons, a 0.5% decrease [4]. Demand - The iron - making water output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 242.2 tons, a 0.1% decrease. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4 to 64.6 tons, a 0.6% increase [4]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 7.4 to 918.2 tons, a 0.8% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 56.3 to 985.4 tons, a 6.1% increase [4]. Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.6 to - 5.5 tons, a 10.2% increase [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical game deadline between Russia and Ukraine has been advanced, and the macro - situation has positive expectations. The short - term market has upward support, and attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - The short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the decline in safe - haven demand, and focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - For various commodities, different trends and trading strategies are presented based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and inventory changes. For example, some commodities are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight crude oil futures rose sharply. The geopolitical game deadline has been advanced, and the short - term market has upward support. Attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Macro and geopolitical game news boost oil prices, but the cracking spread is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak, and the cracking spread is likely to be volatile and weak [22]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic production volume in August decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory destocking rhythm slowed down. The price follows the direction of crude oil, but the upward space is limited [23]. - **Urea**: The futures main contract is running at a low level. Domestic downstream demand is weak, exports are advancing, and short - term prices are likely to run within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and the port is unexpectedly destocked. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Night - time oil prices rose sharply, which is expected to boost the cost of pure benzene. Supply and demand decreased in the week, and the port slightly accumulated inventory. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in the third quarter, and it is recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed strength at night. Supply decreased, domestic demand was weak, and foreign demand was expected to improve. Caustic soda showed a volatile trend, with long - term supply pressure and high - level pressure on prices [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - time prices rebounded slightly. The fundamentals of PX had limited driving force, and PTA continued to accumulate inventory. The medium - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs to wait for downstream demand to recover [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is shifting, short - term oil prices are strong, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory fluctuates at a low level. Attention should be paid to external variables [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Prices rebounded following raw materials. Short - fiber is considered for long - allocation in the medium - term, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals fluctuated. Safe - haven demand declined, and short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated and closed up. The market focuses on the implementation of US tariff agreements and Fed meetings. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average, and short positions are held against integer levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum had limited fluctuations. Demand declined in the off - season, inventory increased, and it is mainly in short - term shock adjustment with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the price is under short - term pressure but has certain resilience in the medium - term. Consider long AD and short AL when the price difference expands [6]. - **Alumina**: The price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, and the inventory is in a surplus state. Sell short when the price approaches the recent high of 3,500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The black price rebounded, and the zinc price adjustment rhythm was not smooth. Supply increased and demand was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. In the medium - term, the idea of short - allocation on rebounds is maintained, and wait for clear short signals [8]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak, the rebound rhythm is slow, and there is support at 16,800 yuan/ton. You can try long positions lightly and hold them against this price [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The speculation of the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel may return to fundamentals. Wait patiently for short opportunities [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fluctuated. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average and 265,000 yuan. In the long - term, high - level supply expectations will suppress prices. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It fluctuated, and the trading was active. The market rumors of mine shutdowns were refuted. The inventory increased, and the mid - stream output decreased slightly. Try long positions lightly in the short - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures rose sharply. The terminal is waiting and watching, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. After the previous sharp rise, the market enters a wide - range shock. Choose low - long opportunities and control positions [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures rose slightly. The fundamentals are weak, but the price is at a historical low. Be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and control risks [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures rose. Supply increased globally but decreased in domestic arrivals. The inventory pressure is not large, and the demand is weak and stable. The price is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Coke**: The price rose significantly during the day. The fourth round of price increases was proposed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downward space is relatively limited [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The inventory decreased in the production end, and the downward space is relatively limited [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price followed the rise. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation of manganese ore has improved, and there is an upward driving force in the short - term [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price followed the rise. The demand is acceptable, and the price may have an upward driving force in the short - term [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are ongoing, and the US soybean growing conditions are good. The price is treated as volatile for now [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US market shows oil - strong and meal - weak. Domestic soybean oil is strong, and the EU policy is positive for palm oil. Maintain the idea of long - allocation on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed rose overnight. The rapeseed meal price stabilized slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slowly. Take a short - term neutral attitude towards rapeseed products [36]. - **Domestic Soybean**: After a sharp reduction in positions and a callback, the price stabilized. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions [37]. - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak and volatile at the bottom [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price continued to fall, and the futures are likely to have peaked. Suggest hedging on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price fluctuated little. The spot price was stable in most areas. The 09 contract focuses on the seasonal rebound of the spot price, and long positions are more inclined to far - month contracts [40]. - **Cotton**: US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased, and Brazil's harvest progress was slow. Zheng cotton maintained a high - level shock. Temporarily wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased. The short - term sugar price is expected to be volatile [42]. - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Temporarily wait and see [43]. - **Timber**: The demand is good during the off - season, and the inventory pressure is small. The futures price is expected to continue to rise [44]. - **Pulp**: The price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the demand is weak, and the price may return to low - level volatility. Temporarily wait and see [45]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market freight rate inflection point is becoming clear, and the price is expected to decline further. The extension of tariff exemptions may boost market sentiment [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose steadily in the afternoon, and the futures index rose. The risk preference of the global market is oscillating strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The global trade sentiment has improved, and the bond market may have increased volatility in the short - term. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [47].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant trend in the futures market driven by "anti-involution" strategies, with leading sectors such as polysilicon and coking coal showing substantial price increases due to production cuts and environmental regulations [4][11]. - The report indicates that there is still potential for over 15% price appreciation in leading stocks related to polysilicon, coking coal, glass, and coke, as the price trends in commodities remain upward [4][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is expected to bottom out and recover, suggesting that stock market performance is closely tied to PPI movements [5][12]. Group 2 - The report outlines a "dumbbell trading" strategy observed in fund holdings, where there is an increase in allocations to TMT sectors like telecommunications and media, while reducing exposure to consumer goods and manufacturing sectors [6][15]. - The report notes that the second quarter saw a consensus among both northbound and domestic funds to increase allocations in dividend-paying sectors and cyclical industries, while reducing exposure to consumer and manufacturing sectors [16]. - The report discusses the historical performance of PPI cycles, indicating that during PPI upturns, cyclical sectors such as coal, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals tend to perform strongly [5][13].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is experiencing a significant influx of foreign capital, with a net inflow of $18.8 billion in June alone, surpassing the total for the previous year, driven by policy reforms and market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Drivers - The strong push for state-owned enterprise reform is revitalizing the market, encouraging collaboration and efficiency among companies, exemplified by the high dividend policy of Yangtze Power, which has attracted substantial investment [1][2]. - Ample liquidity is being injected into the market, with the central bank providing 300 billion yuan and infrastructure projects receiving 735 billion yuan in funding, acting as a catalyst for market growth [1][2]. - A reversal in supply-demand dynamics in sectors like solar energy and lithium has further elevated market expectations, with prices for products like monocrystalline silicon and lithium ore reaching new highs due to persistent demand [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - There is a notable divergence in stock performance, with institutional investors increasing holdings in coal stocks while selling off hydroelectric stocks, indicating a tactical approach to investment [3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index saw a jump of 0.8%, with significant trading activity in state-owned enterprises, while pharmaceutical stocks like Heng Rui Medicine experienced volatility [3]. Group 3: Policy Signals - Investment directions are often hinted at in policy documents, such as the integration of design institutes by Huajian Group and the emphasis on hydrogen energy over coal in Henan's coal industry [6]. - The AI sector saw a boost following the announcement of restructuring plans for Zhongke Shuguang, reflecting the market's responsiveness to policy changes [6]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Trends - The banking sector's data indicates a shift in investment preferences, with a decrease in personal housing loans and an increase in corporate loans, suggesting a trend towards stock market investments [10]. - Investors are increasingly favoring dividend ETFs due to low deposit rates, with some companies in the energy sector, like Ningde Times, experiencing high demand for their products [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of anti - involution narratives and expectations of incremental policies, the overall stock and commodity markets remain strong, while long - term bonds are under pressure. The market is affected by factors such as trade negotiations, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships in different sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index - There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small amount of short positions in put options on MO with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, and reduce positions, maintaining a moderately bullish stance. On the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term and pay attention to the capital situation and incremental policies [2]. Treasury Bonds - The risk assets suppress long - term bonds. With the tightening of the capital market, the short - selling sentiment in the bond futures market has increased, and the redemption pressure on bond funds may start to rise, which still suppresses the bond market. In terms of the curve strategy, it is possible to continue to bet on the steepening [2]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by the weakening of the US dollar's credit and its commodity attributes, and it oscillates above the 60 - day moving average. Silver has further upside potential due to the general rise of domestic industrial products and capital inflows, and long positions can be held. Gold continues to correct as the European Central Bank pauses rate cuts for the first time in a year and the risk - aversion sentiment eases [2]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract rebounds slightly. With the increasing expectation of anti - involution, the price continues to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 08 contract or short the 10 contract at high prices [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - The iron ore has insufficient upward momentum as the molten iron output slightly decreases and the port inventory slightly increases. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore. The steel price continues to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be held [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - The expectation of production - restriction documents is rising, the resumption of coal mines is lagging, the spot market is strong, and the transaction is picking up. The third round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has started, and there is still an expectation of price increases. It is recommended to take profits on long positions step by step at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The short - term sentiment fades, and high copper prices suppress demand. - Aluminum: The market sentiment is bullish, and the aluminum price oscillates at a high level, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. - Other non - ferrous metals also have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on factors such as macro - sentiment, inventory, and supply - demand [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The macro - sentiment eases, and the demand expectation recovers, pushing up the oil price. - Other energy and chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions according to factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and cost [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions based on factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [2]. Special Commodities - Glass: The document on air pollution prevention boosts market sentiment, and the spot transaction is strong. - Rubber: The macro - sentiment is positive, and supply disruptions due to rainy weather in overseas production areas and conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia drive up the rubber price. - Other special commodities also have corresponding market trends and trading suggestions [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures oscillate and rise to a new high, but attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback due to the increase in warehouse receipts. - Recycled lithium: The market sentiment is boosted, but the fundamental change is not significant. It is recommended to be cautious and stay on the sidelines [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is overall strong with cost support, but domestic demand is weak and attention should be paid to policy changes [1]. - Iron ore follows the strong trend of the black - series, but the price is high and there is a risk of increased volatility [2]. - Coke and coking coal may maintain an upward trend in the short - term, and the impact of "anti - involution" needs policy attention [3][5]. - Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon follow the thread trend, with relatively small price increases [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market strengthened today. Thread demand recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil demand declined, production dropped, and inventory increased slightly. High iron - water production and low inventory support steel prices. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are at a relatively high level. The market is optimistic, and the short - term trend is dominated by "anti - involution" [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillated. Global shipments are slightly stronger than last year, and domestic arrivals have declined from high levels. Port inventories are stable. In the demand side, the terminal is in the off - season, but steel mills have profits and high iron - water production supports high - level ore handling. The market sentiment has improved, but the price is high [2]. Coke - The coke price rose and then fell. The third round of price increases by coking plants is underway. Coking profits are meager, and daily production has slightly increased. Overall inventory has decreased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness has increased. The carbon supply is abundant, and the short - term trend is upward [3]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price hit the daily limit. Affected by policy documents, the price has risen significantly. Coal production has decreased slightly, the spot auction market has improved, and terminal inventory has increased. Total inventory has decreased, and short - term destocking is likely to continue. The short - term trend is upward [5]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price rose and then fell. Due to previous production cuts, inventory has decreased, and weekly production recovery is slow. Manganese ore inventory is increasing, which suppresses prices. In the short - term, the inventory is low, and the price is rising slightly following the thread [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price fell at the end of the session. Iron - water production has increased, export demand is stable, and secondary demand has declined marginally. Supply has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased. It follows the thread trend with relatively weak price increases [7].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the commodity market, particularly focusing on the photovoltaic (PV) industry, coal market, and related sectors such as glass and soda ash [1][10][23]. Key Points and Arguments Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market has reached a policy bottom, similar to the stock market situation in September 2024, but transitioning from deflation to re-inflation requires policy implementation and demand-side hedging tools [1][2][3]. - Short-term commodity prices may experience a pullback but are unlikely to hit new lows, indicating a gradual bottoming process [1][6]. - Current policies are comprehensive, targeting long-term loss-making industries, injecting confidence into the market [1][8]. Photovoltaic Industry Insights - The price of polysilicon has risen to approximately 45,000 yuan due to optimistic policies and a lack of negative feedback in the supply chain [1][10]. - The PV industry faces a mismatch between supply expansion and demand, with a need for around 70 billion yuan in support due to significant losses in 2024 [10]. - Government meetings have emphasized anti-involution policies, indicating a commitment to stabilize the industry and promote orderly production [10]. Coal Market Developments - The coking coal market has shifted from oversupply to balance due to event-driven factors and downstream inventory replenishment [1][14]. - Environmental restrictions in Tangshan have positively impacted the black industry chain, with leaders advocating for coal enterprise transformation [1][16]. - Current policies are aimed at controlling excess supply and improving the quality of production, which is expected to support future pricing [21][28]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Conditions - The glass industry is experiencing reduced policy constraints, while the soda ash sector is supported by supply-side reforms and rising energy costs [23][25]. - The soda ash market is characterized by strong pricing power due to rigid demand from the glass sector, despite potential oversupply issues [25]. Future Market Expectations - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is optimistic, with expectations of sustained price increases if supply-side policies are effectively implemented [7][19]. - The focus on safety and quality in coal production is expected to stabilize the market and prevent drastic price drops [28]. - The steel industry may face various policy changes, including capacity reduction and production optimization, which could significantly impact profitability [29][30]. Additional Important Insights - The need for effective demand-side hedging tools, such as fiscal stimulus and real estate support, is critical for stabilizing future expectations [4][5]. - The market is currently observing speculative demand, particularly in the glass and soda ash sectors, which may lead to volatility if not managed properly [25][26]. - The interplay between domestic and international policies will significantly influence future supply and valuation in the coal market [21][22]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future expectations of the commodity market and related industries.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: ★☆☆ for rebar, ★☆★ for hot-rolled coil [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall situation of the black metal market is complex, with different trends in each sub - sector. The "anti - involution" concept dominates the market, and the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and macro - level expectations. Attention should be paid to policy changes on both supply and demand sides [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Rebar: In the off - season, demand is weak, production continues to decline, and inventory accumulates slightly at a low level. Hot - rolled coil demand has resilience, production continues to fall, and inventory drops slightly. Iron - water production rises and remains high, and the market's negative feedback pressure is low under the low - inventory pattern. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are relatively high. The market is affected by "anti - involution" and shows volatile fluctuations. Attention should be paid to policy changes [2] Iron Ore - The supply side has increased global shipments compared to the previous period and is stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals have declined from a high level, and port inventories are stable with no obvious short - term inventory accumulation pressure. The demand side has high iron - water production in the short term as steel mills have high profit ratios and low motivation for active production cuts. The market sentiment is improved by macro - level factors, but the current price is high, and there is a risk of increased price fluctuations [3] Coke - The price is volatile during the day. The second round of price increases for coking has been proposed, and coking profits are meager. Coking daily production has increased slightly after a continuous decline. Overall inventory has decreased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness has increased. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream iron - water level remains high in the off - season. The "anti - involution" has limited impact, and the futures price is at a premium, with a possible short - term upward trend [4] Coking Coal - The price hit the daily limit at the end of the day. Affected by policy documents, the futures price has risen significantly. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased, the spot auction market has improved, and the transaction price has continued to rise. The terminal inventory has increased, and the total inventory has decreased month - on - month. The production - end inventory has continued to decline significantly, and inventory reduction is likely to continue in the short term. The "anti - involution" impact is gradually emerging, and the futures price is at a premium, with a possible short - term upward trend [6] Silicon Manganese - The price has declined during the day. Due to previous continuous production cuts, the inventory level has decreased, and the weekly production recovery rate is slow. The spot manganese ore price has risen following the futures price. Affected by "anti - involution", the market has increased expectations for demand - side policies, and the price follows the rebar trend with a relatively small increase [7] Silicon Iron - The price has declined during the day. Iron - water production has risen above 242. Export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand has decreased marginally. Overall demand is acceptable. Supply has increased slightly, market transactions are average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has declined. Affected by "anti - involution", the price follows the rebar trend but has relatively weak upward momentum [8]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the content [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The US-EU trade negotiation has reached a deadlock, with the US setting an August 1st deadline for a new trade agreement, and the EU considering "nuclear option" countermeasures [5][20][21] - For specific commodities, the report provides trend predictions such as gold's upward oscillation, silver's upward breakthrough, and copper's price supported by inventory reduction [12][18][21] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Propylene - On July 22, 2025, the listing benchmark price of the first batch of propylene futures contracts was 6350 yuan/ton. Considering the spread and delivery costs, the recommended strategy is to buy the 02 contract of propylene and short the 01 contract of PP [6] Glass - In the short term, the glass market is slightly bullish but overvalued. The market has rebounded due to policy expectations and reduced short positions. However, the high premium of futures contracts over spot prices may lead to market fluctuations. As the market approaches August, the delivery logic may favor short positions [9] Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through upward [12][18] - **Copper**: Copper price is supported by inventory reduction, with both domestic and international copper inventories decreasing [21] - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [12][24] - **Lead**: The price of lead is supported by supply - demand contradictions [12][27] - **Tin**: The price of tin is weakening [12][29] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate upward, alumina has a short - term strong sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [12][33] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's upward potential is limited by reality despite positive macro - sentiment, and stainless steel's trend is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment with fundamentals determining its elasticity [12][36] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: With potential supply reduction and positive macro - sentiment, the short - term trend may remain strong [12][41] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's position is decreasing, making the market resistant to decline; polysilicon requires attention to component sales [12][45] Building Materials - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it is in a bullish oscillation [12][48] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][50][51] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate**: Market sentiment is strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][55] Energy - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are expected to oscillate upward [12][59][60] - **Steam Coal**: With the recovery of daily consumption, the market is stabilizing with an oscillating trend [12][63] Others - **Log**: The log market is oscillating repeatedly [66]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant recovery in commodity prices, driven by policy support and improvements in supply-demand dynamics, indicating potential profitability recovery for companies in affected industries [1][2] - Recent price increases in commodities such as polysilicon, lithium carbonate, coking coal, and alumina suggest a positive shift in the market, with polysilicon futures rising over 28% in the last 10 trading days and lithium carbonate surpassing 70,000 yuan per ton [1] - The Chinese government's policies focusing on "anti-involution," "expanding domestic demand," and "stabilizing growth" are aimed at addressing low-price competition, enhancing consumption, and ensuring macroeconomic stability, respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The collaboration between "anti-involution," "expanding domestic demand," and "stabilizing growth" is essential for creating a conducive environment for economic recovery, with consumer spending contributing 52% to economic growth in the first half of the year [2] - The article suggests that with continued policy support, the commodity sector may transition from cyclical growth to sustainable growth, leading to a healthier industrial ecosystem and promoting high-quality economic development [2]