Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a divergence in asset pricing, particularly between gold and U.S. Treasury bonds, driven by differing expectations regarding inflation and economic policy responses [1][2][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have surged by 51% over the past 12 months, surpassing $4000, while the U.S. dollar has depreciated by over 10% against a basket of major currencies [4][5]. - The concept of "devaluation trade" has gained traction, where investors bet on government-induced inflation to alleviate rising debt burdens, leading to increased demand for hard assets like gold and stocks [5][6]. - The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has risen from 96% in 2020 to 98% in 2023, raising concerns about future inflation as a means to manage debt [5]. Group 2: Inflation Expectations - The long-term inflation expectations in the U.S. bond market remain stable, with key indicators like the five-year, five-year forward breakeven inflation rate close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target [7][8]. - This stability suggests that bond investors do not foresee runaway inflation, contrasting sharply with the bullish sentiment in the gold market [6][8]. Group 3: Divergence in Economic Signals - The market is currently divided on which economic signals will dominate Federal Reserve decisions—whether to cut rates in response to potential recession or tighten policies to combat inflation [2][10]. - The stock market's rise is attributed more to optimism surrounding AI technology and its potential to drive strong growth with moderate inflation, rather than solely as a hedge against inflation [9]. - The conflicting macroeconomic data, with signs of a slowing job market and strong growth, creates uncertainty about the Fed's future actions [9][10].

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Nasdaq dropping by 2.8% [1] - A50 futures fell by 3.86%, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1] Sector Performance - Following the long holiday, the market showed a stark contrast, with only safe-haven assets like gold and government bonds performing well, while other sectors were predominantly in the red [2] - The Hang Seng Index futures and Hang Seng Tech futures also reflected a downward trend, with declines of 5.00% and 4.99% respectively [3] Key Index Movements - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 1.52%, closing at 45,655.69, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell by 2.85% and 2.15%, closing at 22,368.23 and 6,590.29 respectively [3] - Gold and silver prices showed slight increases, with London gold rising by 0.80% to 4,007.887 and COMEX silver up by 0.59% to 47.435 [3]

Market Reaction - Cryptocurrency prices experienced a significant decline, with Bitcoin falling below $119,000 for the first time since October 2, trading at $119,028, down 1.7% on the day [1] - Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum and Solana, saw sharper declines, with both down nearly 5% in the last hour, priced at $4,107 and $211 respectively [1] Liquidation Events - The crypto market faced a surge in liquidations, with CoinGlass reporting $459 million worth of liquidations in the last hour, predominantly from long positions [2] - Over the past 24 hours, nearly $773 million worth of positions have been liquidated [2] Broader Market Impact - The stock market indices also reflected a downturn, with the Nasdaq down 1.77%, the S&P 500 down 1.25%, and the Dow decreasing by 0.83% [2] Political Context - President Trump indicated a potential increase in tariffs on Chinese products, suggesting that this policy could have long-term benefits for the U.S. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas macro: The US government is in a shutdown, and Japan is likely to have its first female prime minister. A shutdown over 15 days may affect the release of important economic data. If Koike Sanae is elected, it may impact Sino - Japanese relations and market risk preference [7]. - Domestic macro: The domestic economy continues to stabilize. The manufacturing PMI is 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The non - manufacturing PMI drops 0.3 points to 50.0. During the holiday, consumption and travel were active [7]. - Asset view: In October, domestic assets benefit from policy expectations and ample liquidity. Overseas, the focus is on the Fed's October rate cut and the BoJ's inaction. The weak - dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. In the fourth quarter, maintain the asset allocation order of equities > commodities > bonds [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: All major stock index futures showed gains. The CSI 300 futures had a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date increase of 1.54%, 1.54%, 1.54%, 1.54%, and 19.59% respectively. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also had positive performances [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Most treasury bond futures had small increases, except for the 2 - year treasury bond futures with a year - to - date decline of 0.56% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was flat on the day, with different trends in other currency pairs. For example, the euro - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged on the day, while the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate had a weekly increase of 3.52% [3]. - **Interest Rates**: Some interest rates had minor changes, such as the 10 - year Chinese treasury bond yield decreasing by 2.7 bp [3]. 3.2 Hot Industries - Industries like construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals had positive daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date performances. For example, the non - ferrous metals index had a year - to - date increase of 33.42% [3]. - Some industries such as food and beverage, automotive, and defense and military had mixed performances, with some showing daily declines but positive long - term trends [3]. 3.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: Crude oil futures (NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent) had small daily increases but year - to - date declines. Natural gas prices were mostly down, with NYMEX natural gas having a daily decline of 5.14% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver had significant year - to - date increases, with COMEX gold up 53.85% year - to - date [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals showed positive long - term trends, but some had daily fluctuations [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products had diverse performances. For example, CBOT soybeans had a year - to - date increase of 1.96%, while ICE 2 - cotton had a year - to - date decline of 5.03% [3]. 3.4 Other Commodities - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe had a significant daily decline of 50.38% [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver continued to show positive trends, with silver having a year - to - date increase of 49.52% [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Copper, tin, and other metals had positive price movements, while some like alumina had a weak fundamental situation [4]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most black building materials showed a mixed performance, with some like iron ore having a positive year - to - date performance and others like silicon iron having a decline [4]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil had a year - to - date decline of 15.88%. Most chemical products showed a trend of price fluctuations and were in a state of supply - demand adjustment [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Some agricultural products like soybeans and peanuts had different price trends, with peanuts having a year - to - date decline of 2.83% [4]. 3.5 Market Outlook by Sector - **Financial**: Stock markets had a shrinking - volume rebound, and bond markets remained weak. Stock index futures were expected to rise in a volatile manner, while bond futures were expected to be volatile [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver were expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Shipping**: Attention was paid to the rate of freight price decline, and the container shipping route to Europe was expected to be volatile [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: A negative feedback was difficult to form, and the sector was expected to remain volatile before the holiday [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Supply disruptions continued to ferment, and most metals were expected to be volatile, with some like copper expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The crude oil market continued to be volatile, and the chemical market was mainly for hedging and arbitrage, with most products expected to be volatile [10]. - **Agriculture**: Affected by Argentina's tariff policy, oilseeds and meal were hit. Most agricultural products were expected to be volatile [10].

| 大类资产早报 | | | --- | --- | | | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/10/09 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/09/30 | 4.151 | 4.698 | 3.533 | 2.710 | 3.532 | 3.256 | 0.180 | 3.380 | | 最新变化 | 0.011 | -0.002 | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.001 | -0.006 | 0.036 | -0.001 | | 一周变化 | 0.044 | 0.019 | -0.030 | -0.038 | -0.010 | -0.039 | 0.009 | -0.022 | | 一月变化 | -0.111 | -0.101 | -0.049 | -0.074 | -0.143 | ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving stock fund management models in the financial market, highlighting the increased attention from both institutional investors and retail investors towards market funding structures [1] - The term "Top Ten Stock Leverage" has gained popularity, serving more as a reference for information and market observation rather than a specific operational guide [1] Group 1: Changes in Funding Structure - The liquidity of A-shares has been continuously enhancing, with frequent sector rotations indicating increased market activity [1] - Since September, sectors such as new energy, energy storage, AI technology, and robotics have shown significant strength, with a clear influx of funds [1] - The changes in funding structure reflect a phase adjustment in investment preferences and the depth of participation from different types of funds [1] Group 2: Industry Significance of "Top Ten Stock Leverage" - The "Top Ten Stock Leverage" information highlights the overall observation of certain fund management models rather than providing specific operational guidelines [3] - Understanding various fund management methods can elucidate the relationship between fund turnover and market activity [3] - Analyzing the scale and distribution of major funding institutions aids in assessing funding concentration and industry transparency [3] - Frequent discussions around "leverage" often indicate a temporary rise in market sentiment and risk appetite, warranting rational attention [3] Group 3: Market Sector and Fund Flow Observations - The market rotation since September exhibits distinct structural characteristics, with fund flows not following a single trend but rather reflecting a natural outcome in the search for balance [4] - A dynamic interplay between short-term funds and long-term allocation funds is emerging [4] Group 4: Rational Perspective on Industry Observation - Observing the market should focus on information integration and rational analysis rather than following trends or blind interpretations [5] - The significance of terms like "Top Ten Stock Leverage" lies more in the realm of industry information [5] Group 5: Conclusion - The information related to "Top Ten Stock Leverage" reflects the complexity and diversity of market funding structures [6] - Rational interpretation of this information aids in understanding the internal operational logic of the market [6] - As financial tools and fund management methods continue to innovate, market structures may become more diverse, emphasizing the importance of maintaining an objective and calm perspective [6] Group 6: Sector-Specific Insights - The new energy and energy storage sectors are continuously favored by funds due to policy support and demand [7] - The AI and computing sectors are experiencing active fund flows driven by technological breakthroughs and corporate strategies [7] - The non-ferrous and materials sectors are seeing increased short-term fund participation influenced by international market fluctuations [7] - Understanding the underlying logic of fund flows is crucial rather than making simplistic judgments about price movements [7] - Changes in funding structures are often closely related to policy rhythms, highlighting the importance of macro and policy influences [7] - Reliable information sources are essential for a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of "confidence" in the Chinese economy, likening it to a theatrical play titled "Waiting for Confidence," where confidence is a crucial yet elusive element for economic recovery [4][6]. Group 1: Importance of Confidence - Confidence is described as a "metaphysical" element that drives economic actions and decisions, transforming uncertainty into actionable expectations [6][8]. - The article emphasizes that confidence cannot be artificially created through policies or data alone; it exists in the collective consciousness of individuals [8][22]. Group 2: Case Study of Argentina - Argentina serves as a case study where confidence was temporarily restored through external intervention, specifically a $200 billion currency swap line from the U.S. Treasury, which provided a significant credit backing to the Argentine central bank [12][14]. - Historical parallels are drawn to past crises, such as the 1994-1995 Mexican Tequila Crisis, where similar confidence-boosting measures were effective [14][15]. Group 3: Challenges in Restoring Confidence - Despite temporary boosts in confidence, the article questions whether it can be sustained, highlighting that market participants remain skeptical and risk premiums are still high [21][22]. - The political landscape in Argentina poses a significant challenge, as any signs of failure in reforms can lead to a rapid loss of confidence among investors [21][22].

Group 1 - The Indian stock market sentiment has been negatively impacted by multiple factors, including U.S. punitive tariffs, weak corporate earnings, and India's rise to one of the highest valuation markets globally. As of September 26, overseas funds have withdrawn a net $17 billion from the Indian stock market this year, approaching the historical record set in 2022 [1] - The trend of foreign capital withdrawal from the Indian stock market continued into the beginning of the week, with preliminary data from Indian exchanges indicating an outflow of $319 million on September 29 alone [3] - Analysts on Wall Street noted that the sell-off in the Indian stock market has intensified this quarter, particularly after U.S. President Trump significantly raised H-1B visa fees, impacting tech companies reliant on this program. Given the unlikely short-term trade agreement between India and the U.S. and the lack of corporate earnings growth, analysts believe foreign capital is not expected to return quickly [3] Group 2 - To mitigate the impact of U.S. policy changes on the Indian economy, the Reserve Bank of India has announced measures to provide flexibility and reduce compliance burdens for exporters, importers, and re-export traders, extending the foreign exchange expenditure deadline for triangular trade transactions from four months to six months [3] - The Indian Ministry of Energy has stated that despite facing challenges, it remains committed to promoting economic growth [3]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market has shown a small upward trend, with the Dow Jones increasing by over 80 points, the S&P 500 rising by 0.4%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.3% [3] - In September, the Dow Jones rose by 1.87%, while the Nasdaq surged by 5.61%, continuing a five-month streak of gains [3] Government Shutdown Concerns - The potential government shutdown is a significant concern, as it could disrupt economic data collection, particularly the non-farm payroll report scheduled for release [3][4] - The Vice President indicated a high probability of a shutdown, with estimates from cryptocurrency platforms suggesting an 85% chance [3] - Analysts express that if the shutdown extends beyond two weeks, market sentiment could shift from cautious observation to panic [3] Trade Policy Developments - Former President Trump has announced new tariffs on lumber and furniture, as well as threats of tariffs on foreign films and a 100% tax on brand-name drugs [4] - These trade actions may not have an immediate impact on the stock market but could gradually affect corporate profits [4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on long-term stability rather than short-term market fluctuations, especially in light of the looming government shutdown [4] - The current market rally should be viewed with caution, as underlying risks remain unaddressed [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market conditions, highlighting the balance in the funding environment and the performance of both the stock and bond markets, particularly in light of recent central bank actions and economic indicators. Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market experienced a slight increase, supported by a stable funding environment and a central bank announcement of a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, leading to a downward trend in interest rates [5][6]. - The central bank conducted a 242.2 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 33.9 billion yuan, indicating a balanced funding situation [3][4]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Bond Market - The yield on long-term bonds has significantly decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping to approximately 1.783% [5][6]. - The funding rates remained stable, with the overnight rate (DR001) slightly rising to around 1.39%, while the 7-day rate (DR007) fell by 15 basis points to approximately 1.44% [4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI for September met expectations, contributing to the slight rise in the stock market [5]. - The article notes a shift in market sentiment regarding government bonds, with a recent announcement from the Ministry of Finance affecting the pricing of long-term bonds [6].