Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that the recent "anti-involution" policies are beneficial in curbing low-level repetitive construction in the chemical industry and are actively promoting a shift from homogeneous price wars to high-quality development [1][3] - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in its prosperity, with a focus on the revival of terminal product demand, increasing industry concentration, and investment opportunities in segments with industrial moats and potential cyclical rebounds, such as refining, ethylene, polyester filament, PVC, organic silicon, battery materials, glyphosate, and soda ash [1][2] Group 2 - The chemical industry has faced significant pressure since 2022 due to demand contraction and supply shocks, with the CCPI continuing to decline by 5.57% from early 2025 to July 24, 2025 [2] - From January to May 2025, the revenue of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry grew by 2.10% year-on-year, while total profits decreased by 4.70% [2] - The industry's capacity utilization rate was 71.90% in the second quarter of 2025, down by 1.60 percentage points from the first quarter [2] - The capital expenditure in the large chemical sector has significantly declined, with the capital expenditure growth rate for the oil and petrochemical/basic chemical sectors turning negative at -6.6% and -15.0%, respectively [2] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to reshape the petrochemical industry landscape, addressing the pressures of overcapacity and homogeneous competition [3] - Refining is experiencing a decline in operating rates due to demand downturn and electrification, with potential policy measures to reduce inefficient capacity and encourage integrated development [3] - The ethylene sector faces oversupply and competition, but controlling production and improving quality could alleviate supply-demand imbalances [3] Group 4 - In the battery materials sector, rapid capacity expansion amid growing demand has led to significant supply pressure, but "anti-involution" policies may guide healthier industry development [4] - The organic silicon industry is nearing the end of its capacity expansion phase, with recent supply disruptions and sustained demand growth expected to ease short-term supply pressures [4] - The "anti-involution" policies are anticipated to improve the supply landscape in the soda ash sector by accelerating the exit of outdated processes and capacities [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the off-season in mid-August will limit the upside potential of crude oil. A short-term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short-term long positions with profit-taking on dips, and left-side ambush for Russian geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane supply disruption season when oil prices plunge [2]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $1.05, or 1.52%, to $70.3/barrel; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.71, or 0.98%, to $73.47/barrel; INE main crude oil futures fell 1.30 yuan, or 0.24%, to 529.7 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.70 million barrels to 426.69 million barrels, a 1.84% increase; SPR increased by 0.24 million barrels to 402.74 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels to 228.41 million barrels, a 1.18% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 3.64 million barrels to 113.54 million barrels, a 3.31% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.20 million barrels to 20.04 million barrels, a 0.97% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 2.11 million barrels to 43.39 million barrels, a 4.63% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 30, the 09 contract fell 15 yuan/ton to 2419 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 8 yuan/ton, with a basis of -9 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Upstream开工率 has bottomed out and rebounded, and enterprise profits are still good. Supply pressure is expected to increase marginally. MTO profits have declined again, port开工率 remains stable, and traditional demand is still in the off-season. The market may shift to a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, and methanol may face downward pressure. Port inventories have increased, year-on-year inventories are low, and overall inventory levels have decreased. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 30, the 09 contract fell 2 yuan/ton to 1742 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +18 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic开工率 continues to decline, and enterprise profits have rebounded but are still at a relatively low level. As the sentiment in the domestic commodity market improves, the cost support for urea gradually strengthens. The开工率 of compound fertilizers has rebounded slowly, demand is weak, and finished product inventories are at a relatively high level. Exports are progressing steadily, and port inventories continue to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to going long on dips [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have oscillated downward after a significant correction. Supply concerns have eased [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Bulls believe that weather conditions in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, and the current situation of rubber plantations may lead to a reduction in rubber production. Rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macroeconomic expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off-season, and the reduction in supply may be less than expected. It is recommended to wait and see for now and consider a long-short spread operation on RU2601 and RU2509 [9][11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 43 yuan to 5192 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG-5 was 5060 (+40) yuan/ton, the basis was -99 (+73) yuan/ton, and the 9-1 spread was -137 (-13) yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The overall开工率 of PVC is 76.8%, a 0.8% decrease from the previous period. The demand side is weak, and downstream开工率 is at a five-year low and still in the off-season. Exports are affected by India's anti-dumping policy. The cost support has weakened. The market is currently in a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuations. It is necessary to observe whether exports can exceed expectations and reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices have both risen, and the basis has strengthened [13]. - **Fundamentals**: After the successful convening of the Politburo meeting, short-term macroeconomic positive expectations have been realized, and cost support still exists. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, with significant room for upward repair. The开工率 of pure benzene has declined slightly, but supply remains ample. The开工率 of styrene has continued to increase. Port inventories have increased significantly, and demand is in the seasonal off-season. It is expected that the BZN spread will repair in the short term, and styrene prices may follow the cost side and oscillate upward after port inventories are reduced [13][14]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices have risen [16]. - **Fundamentals**: After the successful convening of the Politburo meeting, short-term positive expectations have been realized, and cost support still exists. Spot prices have risen, and PE valuations have limited downward space. Trader inventories are oscillating at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. Demand is in the seasonal off-season, and the overall开工率 is oscillating downward. The short-term contradiction has shifted from cost-driven downward movement to high maintenance boosting inventory reduction. There is a large capacity release pressure in August, and polyethylene prices may be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [16]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices have fallen [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The profits of Shandong refineries have stopped falling and rebounded, and the开工率 is expected to gradually recover. The demand side is in the seasonal off-season, and downstream开工率 is oscillating downward. There is only 450,000 tons of planned capacity to be put into operation in August. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost side may dominate the market. It is expected that polypropylene prices will follow crude oil and oscillate higher in July [17]. PX & PTA & MEG PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 42 yuan to 6984 yuan, and PX CFR rose 9 dollars to 866 dollars. The basis was 147 yuan (+25), and the 9-1 spread was 106 yuan (-2) [19]. - **Fundamentals**: PX开工率 remains high, but the PTA maintenance season has also ended, and the开工率 of the downstream is relatively high. Inventory levels are low, and the negative feedback pressure on PX is still small in the short term. New PTA plants are planned to be put into operation soon, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventories. Valuations are currently at a neutral level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following crude oil [19][21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 26 yuan to 4838 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 30 yuan to 4860 yuan. The basis was -10 yuan (-5), and the 9-1 spread was 2 yuan (-4) [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA开工率 is 79.7%, unchanged from the previous period. Downstream开工率 has increased, and terminal开工率 has also recovered. Inventories have increased slightly. PTA processing fees have limited room for operation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX [22]. MEG - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 31 yuan to 4467 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 17 yuan to 4527 yuan. The basis was 66 yuan (+4), and the 9-1 spread was -28 yuan (-3) [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side has increased, and downstream开工率 has also increased. Port inventories have decreased. Valuations are relatively high compared to the same period in previous years. The maintenance season is coming to an end, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. Saudi Arabian plants have all restarted, and the expected arrival volume will gradually increase. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical game deadline between Russia and Ukraine has been advanced, and the macro - situation has positive expectations. The short - term market has upward support, and attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - The short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the decline in safe - haven demand, and focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - For various commodities, different trends and trading strategies are presented based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and inventory changes. For example, some commodities are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight crude oil futures rose sharply. The geopolitical game deadline has been advanced, and the short - term market has upward support. Attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Macro and geopolitical game news boost oil prices, but the cracking spread is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak, and the cracking spread is likely to be volatile and weak [22]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic production volume in August decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory destocking rhythm slowed down. The price follows the direction of crude oil, but the upward space is limited [23]. - **Urea**: The futures main contract is running at a low level. Domestic downstream demand is weak, exports are advancing, and short - term prices are likely to run within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and the port is unexpectedly destocked. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Night - time oil prices rose sharply, which is expected to boost the cost of pure benzene. Supply and demand decreased in the week, and the port slightly accumulated inventory. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in the third quarter, and it is recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed strength at night. Supply decreased, domestic demand was weak, and foreign demand was expected to improve. Caustic soda showed a volatile trend, with long - term supply pressure and high - level pressure on prices [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - time prices rebounded slightly. The fundamentals of PX had limited driving force, and PTA continued to accumulate inventory. The medium - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs to wait for downstream demand to recover [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is shifting, short - term oil prices are strong, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory fluctuates at a low level. Attention should be paid to external variables [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Prices rebounded following raw materials. Short - fiber is considered for long - allocation in the medium - term, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals fluctuated. Safe - haven demand declined, and short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated and closed up. The market focuses on the implementation of US tariff agreements and Fed meetings. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average, and short positions are held against integer levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum had limited fluctuations. Demand declined in the off - season, inventory increased, and it is mainly in short - term shock adjustment with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the price is under short - term pressure but has certain resilience in the medium - term. Consider long AD and short AL when the price difference expands [6]. - **Alumina**: The price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, and the inventory is in a surplus state. Sell short when the price approaches the recent high of 3,500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The black price rebounded, and the zinc price adjustment rhythm was not smooth. Supply increased and demand was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. In the medium - term, the idea of short - allocation on rebounds is maintained, and wait for clear short signals [8]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak, the rebound rhythm is slow, and there is support at 16,800 yuan/ton. You can try long positions lightly and hold them against this price [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The speculation of the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel may return to fundamentals. Wait patiently for short opportunities [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fluctuated. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average and 265,000 yuan. In the long - term, high - level supply expectations will suppress prices. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It fluctuated, and the trading was active. The market rumors of mine shutdowns were refuted. The inventory increased, and the mid - stream output decreased slightly. Try long positions lightly in the short - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures rose sharply. The terminal is waiting and watching, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. After the previous sharp rise, the market enters a wide - range shock. Choose low - long opportunities and control positions [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures rose slightly. The fundamentals are weak, but the price is at a historical low. Be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and control risks [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures rose. Supply increased globally but decreased in domestic arrivals. The inventory pressure is not large, and the demand is weak and stable. The price is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Coke**: The price rose significantly during the day. The fourth round of price increases was proposed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downward space is relatively limited [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The inventory decreased in the production end, and the downward space is relatively limited [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price followed the rise. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation of manganese ore has improved, and there is an upward driving force in the short - term [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price followed the rise. The demand is acceptable, and the price may have an upward driving force in the short - term [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are ongoing, and the US soybean growing conditions are good. The price is treated as volatile for now [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US market shows oil - strong and meal - weak. Domestic soybean oil is strong, and the EU policy is positive for palm oil. Maintain the idea of long - allocation on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed rose overnight. The rapeseed meal price stabilized slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slowly. Take a short - term neutral attitude towards rapeseed products [36]. - **Domestic Soybean**: After a sharp reduction in positions and a callback, the price stabilized. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions [37]. - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak and volatile at the bottom [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price continued to fall, and the futures are likely to have peaked. Suggest hedging on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price fluctuated little. The spot price was stable in most areas. The 09 contract focuses on the seasonal rebound of the spot price, and long positions are more inclined to far - month contracts [40]. - **Cotton**: US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased, and Brazil's harvest progress was slow. Zheng cotton maintained a high - level shock. Temporarily wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased. The short - term sugar price is expected to be volatile [42]. - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Temporarily wait and see [43]. - **Timber**: The demand is good during the off - season, and the inventory pressure is small. The futures price is expected to continue to rise [44]. - **Pulp**: The price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the demand is weak, and the price may return to low - level volatility. Temporarily wait and see [45]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market freight rate inflection point is becoming clear, and the price is expected to decline further. The extension of tariff exemptions may boost market sentiment [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose steadily in the afternoon, and the futures index rose. The risk preference of the global market is oscillating strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The global trade sentiment has improved, and the bond market may have increased volatility in the short - term. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting buying on dips and taking profits, and making left - hand bets on the September Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - related supply disruptions when oil prices drop significantly [3]. - Methanol is affected by the cooling of the overall commodity market sentiment and may face price correction pressure. The upstream supply pressure is expected to increase, while the demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at high prices [5]. - Urea's price is affected by sentiment. The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. It is advisable to pay attention to long positions at low prices [7]. - For rubber, due to the peace talks between Thailand and Cambodia, the supply concern sentiment may decline. The price has a large correction. It is recommended to wait and see for the short - term and consider a long - short band operation for different contracts [9][11]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. Although it is strong in the short - term, there is a risk of a significant decline [11]. - The price of styrene is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward in the short - term as the BZN spread is expected to be repaired [13]. - The price of polyethylene may follow the cost side and fluctuate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - The price of polypropylene is expected to fluctuate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [16]. - PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [19]. - PTA may continue to accumulate inventory, but due to improved downstream conditions, it is recommended to consider going long on dips following PX [20]. - The fundamental situation of ethylene glycol is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is a short - term pressure on valuation decline [21]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $1.91, or 2.94%, to $66.98; Brent main crude oil futures rose $2.01, or 2.94%, to $70.4; INE main crude oil futures fell 2.40 yuan, or 0.45%, to 527 yuan [2]. - **Data**: In China, weekly crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 206.30 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.96 million barrels to 91.93 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.29 million barrels to 102.07 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.26 million barrels to 194.00 million barrels [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 28, the 09 contract fell 115 yuan/ton to 2404 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 91 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 7 [5]. - **Analysis**: Affected by the cooling of the overall commodity market sentiment, the price may decline. The upstream supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 28, the 09 contract fell 65 yuan/ton to 1738 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 32 [7]. - **Analysis**: Affected by sentiment, the supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU had a large correction [9]. - **Analysis**: The peace talks between Thailand and Cambodia may reduce supply concerns. The price has a large decline, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [9][11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 224 yuan to 5149 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5100 (- 60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 49 (+ 164) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 128 (- 15) yuan/ton [11]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is poor with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. There is a risk of a significant decline [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened [12][13]. - **Analysis**: The BZN spread is expected to be repaired, and the price is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward in the short - term [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The price may follow the cost side and fluctuate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [16]. - **Analysis**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 172 yuan to 6890 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 23 dollars to 851 dollars [18]. - **Analysis**: It is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 124 yuan to 4812 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 95 yuan to 4800 yuan [20]. - **Analysis**: It may continue to accumulate inventory, but due to improved downstream conditions, it is recommended to consider going long on dips following PX [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 109 yuan to 4436 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 83 yuan to 4499 yuan [21]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is a short - term pressure on valuation decline [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report Core Views - The pure benzene market has limited self - driving factors due to high port inventory and poor price transmission to downstream sectors, and its short - term trend fluctuates with the overall market sentiment. The styrene market also has a weak supply - demand outlook and increasing port inventory, with limited rebound space under the influence of market sentiment [24]. - The PX market is supported by domestic macro - sentiment and terminal restocking, but considering cost and inventory factors, short - term short - selling strategies can be considered. The PTA market may see short - term improvement but has a weak medium - term outlook. The ethylene glycol market is expected to be near balance in August [28][29]. - The methanol market has a strong inventory build - up expectation in August, and with low MTO profits and weak downstream demand, but the short - term influence of the macro - environment is significant, and MTO09 profit can be expanded at low levels [32]. - The caustic soda market may see stable prices in the short - term, and the PVC market has a supply - exceeding - demand situation, but both are strongly influenced by macro - sentiment [42]. - The polyolefin market is currently strengthened by policies and cost factors, but the real supply - demand situation is weak. In August, there is an increased inventory build - up pressure, and the PP can be considered for short - selling [46]. - The crude oil market is in a range - bound state due to the balance between supply - expansion expectations and macro - sentiment. Short - term trading can follow a band - trading strategy [49]. - The urea market is in a supply - exceeding - demand situation, with the futures market under pressure. It will remain in a range - bound state until there is a substantial improvement in demand [54]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, Brent crude (September) was at $68.44/barrel, down $0.74 (-1.1%) from July 24; WTI crude (September) was at $65.16/barrel, down $0.87 (-1.3%); CFR Japan naphtha rose $5 (0.9%) to $581/ton; CFR China pure benzene increased $14 (1.9%) to $765/ton [21]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, styrene East - China spot was at 7580 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan (1.7%) from July 24; EB futures 2508 was at 7403 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan (1.0%); EB cash - flow (non - integrated) increased 34 yuan (19.0%) to 215 yuan/ton [22]. - **Downstream Cash - flows**: On July 25, phenol cash - flow was - 709 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan (8.4%) from July 24; aniline cash - flow decreased 104 yuan (-517.1%) to 84 yuan/ton [23]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 21, pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 17.10 million tons, up 0.70 million tons (4.3%) from July 14; the domestic pure benzene utilization rate was 76.6%, down 1.5% (-1.9%) from July 17 [24]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, Brent crude (September) was at $68.44/barrel, down $0.74 (-1.1%) from July 24; CFR Japan naphtha rose $5 (0.9%) to $581/ton; CFR China PX increased $18 (2.1%) to $874/ton [28]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, PTA East - China spot price was 4895 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (1.7%) from July 24; TA futures 2509 was at 4936 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan (1.8%); PTA spot processing fee decreased 19 yuan (-9.5%) to 183 yuan/ton [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, MEG East - China spot price was 4582 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan (1.1%) from July 24; EG futures 2509 was at 4545 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan (1.3%); MEG import profit increased 7 yuan (-9.6%) to - 60 yuan/ton [28]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, MA2601 closed at 2587 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan (2.01%) from July 22; the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line was 438 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (2.94%) [32]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 25, methanol enterprise inventory was 33.983%, down 1.3% (-3.55%) from the previous value; the upstream domestic enterprise utilization rate was 70.37%, down 2.3% (-3.16%) from the previous value [32]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's converted - to - 100% price was 2593.8 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 24; East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 5160 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan (1.4%) [36]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of July 18, the caustic soda industry utilization rate was 86.3%, up 1.1% (1.3%) from July 11; the PVC total utilization rate was 75.0%, down 0.1% (-0.1%) [39]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, liquid caustic soda's East - China factory inventory was 21.3, up 2.6 (13.8%) from July 10; PVC's total social inventory was 41.1 million tons, up 1.8 million tons (4.7%) [42]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, L2601 closed at 7504 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan (0.91%) from July 24; the price of East - China LDPE was 9475 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan (0.26%) [46]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 25, PE enterprise inventory was 49.3, up 5.47 (12.48%) from the previous value; the PE device utilization rate was 77.8%, down 1.67% (-2.10%) from the previous value [46]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 28, Brent was at $68.25/barrel, up $0.02 (0.16%) from July 25; WTI was at $65.25/barrel, up $0.09 (0.14%); the Brent - WTI spread was $3.30, up $0.02 (0.61%) [49]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: On July 28, NYM RBOB was 209.73 cents/gallon, up 0.03 cents (0.01%) from July 25; ICE Gasoil was $705.00/ton, down $10.25 (-1.43%) [49]. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spreads**: On July 28, the US gasoline cracking spread was $22.84/barrel, down $1.01 (-4.23%) from July 25; the European diesel cracking spread was $29.73/barrel, down $3.17 (-9.64%) [49]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, the 01 contract of urea futures closed at 1807, up 11 (0.61%) from July 24; the spread between the 01 contract and the 05 contract was - 15, down 7 (-87.50%) [53]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 25, the domestic urea daily output was 19.27, up 0.24 (1.26%) from July 24; the domestic urea plant - level inventory was 85.88, down 3.67 (-4.10%) from the previous week's value [53][55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the off-season in mid-August will limit its upside potential. A short-term target price of $70.4 per barrel for WTI is set, suggesting short-term long positions with profit-taking on dips and left-side ambushes for Russian geopolitical expectations and hurricane supply disruption seasons in September when oil prices plunge [2]. - For methanol, short-term prices are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment. As sentiment cools, prices may face downward pressure. Fundamentally, supply pressure will increase marginally, and demand may weaken, so methanol may face correction pressure. It is recommended to sell out-of-the-money call options at high prices [4]. - Regarding urea, domestic production has declined, and enterprise profits have recovered but remain at a low level. Demand is weak, but exports are an important demand increment. Overall, supply and demand are weak, and it is advisable to focus on long positions on dips [6]. - For rubber, prices are likely to rise in the second half of the year. It is recommended to build positions opportunistically in the medium term, wait and see in the short term, and conduct opportunistic band operations on going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [12]. - For PVC, the current supply is strong, demand is weak, and valuations are high. The fundamental situation is poor, but it is currently strong due to supply reduction expectations and the rebound of the black building materials sector. However, there is a risk of a significant decline when sentiment fades [12]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and prices are expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [14]. - For polyethylene, the short-term contradiction has shifted from cost-driven downward trends to high maintenance boosting inventory depletion. Prices are expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [17]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand during the off-season, macro expectations will dominate the market, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in July [18]. - For PX, the current load remains high, downstream PTA maintenance seasons have ended, and inventory levels are low. With the recovery of polyester and terminal operations, there is little negative feedback pressure on PX in the short term. New PTA devices are planned to be put into production, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory [21]. - For PTA, supply is expected to continue to increase inventory, and processing fees have limited room for operation. However, due to low inventory levels and the recovery of downstream prosperity, the negative feedback pressure is small. It is recommended to follow PX and go long on dips [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply side has increased, and downstream operations have recovered, but the height is still low. Port inventory depletion is expected to slow down. Valuations are relatively high year-on-year, and the fundamental situation has changed from strong to weak. There is short-term pressure on valuations to decline [23]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI crude oil futures fell $1.09, or 1.65%, to $65.07 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures fell $0.97, or 1.40%, to $68.39 per barrel; INE crude oil futures rose 2.40 yuan, or 0.46%, to 529.4 yuan per barrel [1]. - **European ARA Data**: Gasoline inventories increased by 0.09 million barrels to 10.15 million barrels, a 0.91% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.06 million barrels to 13.07 million barrels, a 0.45% decrease; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.17 million barrels to 6.34 million barrels, a 2.54% decrease; naphtha inventories decreased by 0.34 million barrels to 5.08 million barrels, a 6.31% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.49 million barrels to 5.87 million barrels, a 7.68% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 0.96 million barrels to 40.50 million barrels, a 2.32% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 25, the 09 contract rose 38 yuan/ton to 2541 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of -53 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Upstream production has bottomed out and rebounded, and enterprise profits are still good. Supply pressure will increase marginally. The MTO profit has declined again, port operations remain stable, and traditional demand is still in the off-season. The market will gradually shift to a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 25, the 09 contract rose 20 yuan/ton to 1792 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of -2 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production has continued to decline, and enterprise profits have recovered but remain at a low level. The compound fertilizer production has rebounded slowly, demand is weak, and finished product inventories are relatively high. Exports are continuing, and port inventories are increasing [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: On the night of July 25, NR and RU had significant corrections [9]. - **Supply Situation**: Frictions between Thailand and Cambodia are being negotiated, which may reduce supply concerns [9]. - **Inventory Data**: As of July 20, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.9 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons or 0.47% from the previous period; the total inventory of dark rubber was 79.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.23%; the total inventory of light rubber was 49.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.85%. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory was 50.56 (-0.19) million tons [11]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Rubber prices are likely to rise in the second half of the year. It is recommended to build positions opportunistically in the medium term, wait and see in the short term, and conduct opportunistic band operations on going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 135 yuan to 5373 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG-5 was 5160 (+70) yuan/ton, the basis was -213 (-65) yuan/ton, and the 9-1 spread was -113 (+1) yuan/ton [12]. - **Cost Side**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2225 (-25) yuan/ton, the price of medium-grade semi-coke was 585 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene was 820 (0) US dollars/ton. The price of calcium carbide decreased, and the spot price of caustic soda was 830 (0) yuan/ton [12]. - **Production Situation**: The overall PVC operating rate was 76.8%, a decrease of 0.8% from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 79.3%, a decrease of 0.5%; the ethylene method was 70.3%, a decrease of 1.7%. The overall downstream demand operating rate was 41.9%, a decrease of 1.8%. Factory inventories were 35.7 million tons (-1), and social inventories were 68.3 million tons (+2.6) [12]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, and the futures price rose, with the basis weakening [13]. - **Market Expectations**: The market is looking forward to the upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of the month, with a warming macro sentiment and a rising black sector. The cost side still has support. The BZN spread is currently at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large upward repair space [14]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The supply of pure benzene has decreased slightly, but the supply is still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and the production of styrene has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have increased significantly. During the off-season, the overall operating rate of the three S industries has fluctuated and increased [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The spot price of polyethylene increased, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [17]. - **Inventory Situation**: Trader inventories are oscillating at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. During the off-season, agricultural film orders are oscillating at a low level, and the overall operating rate is oscillating downward [17]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The short-term contradiction has shifted from cost-driven downward trends to high maintenance boosting inventory depletion. With the commissioning of the Huizhou ExxonMobil ethylene plant in July, polyethylene prices are expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side. It is recommended to hold short positions [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [18]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, with the marginal return of propylene supply. The downstream operating rate is seasonally oscillating downward. During the off-season, with weak supply and demand, macro expectations will dominate the market [18]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected that polypropylene prices will fluctuate strongly in July [18]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 106 yuan to 7062 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 18 US dollars to 874 US dollars. The basis was 133 yuan (+46), and the 9-1 spread was 112 yuan (+4) [20]. - **Load Situation**: China's PX load was 79.9%, a decrease of 1.2% from the previous period; Asia's load was 72.9%, a decrease of 0.7%. Sheng Hong further reduced its load due to upstream device failures, Tianjin Petrochemical was under maintenance, and Jinling Petrochemical increased its load. The PTA load was 79.7%, remaining unchanged from the previous period [20]. - **Import and Inventory Situation**: From mid to early July, South Korea exported 23.8 million tons of PX to China, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5 million tons. The inventory at the end of May was 434.6 million tons, a decrease of 16.5 million tons from the previous month [20][21]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The PXN was 280 US dollars (+5), and the naphtha crack spread was 74 US dollars (+10). The current PX load remains high, but the PTA maintenance season has also ended, and the load level is high, with low inventory levels. With the recovery of polyester and terminal operations, there is little negative feedback pressure on PX in the short term. New PTA devices are planned to be put into production, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. The current valuation is at a neutral level [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 86 yuan to 4936 yuan, the East China spot price rose 80 yuan to 4895 yuan, the basis was -8 yuan (-8), and the 9-1 spread was 18 yuan (-8) [22]. - **Load Situation**: The PTA load was 79.7%, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The downstream load was 88.7%, an increase of 0.4%. The terminal texturing load increased by 6% to 67%, and the loom load increased by 3% to 59% [22]. - **Inventory Situation**: On July 18, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 218.9 million tons, an increase of 1.7 million tons from the previous period [22]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The PTA spot processing fee decreased by 19 yuan to 175 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 16 yuan to 303 yuan. Supply is expected to continue to increase inventory, and processing fees have limited room for operation. However, due to low inventory levels and the recovery of downstream prosperity, the negative feedback pressure is small. The PXN is expected to be supported and rise following the improvement of the pattern brought by the commissioning of new PTA devices [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 60 yuan to 4545 yuan, the East China spot price rose 52 yuan to 4582 yuan, the basis was 50 yuan (-8), and the 9-1 spread was 2 yuan (+5) [23]. - **Supply Situation**: The ethylene glycol load was 68.4%, an increase of 2.2% from the previous period; among them, the syngas method was 74.4%, an increase of 4.2%; the ethylene method load was 64.7%, an increase of 0.9%. Some syngas-based devices restarted, some oil-based devices increased their loads, and some devices switched from EO to EG production. Overseas, the Sharq devices in Saudi Arabia's Jubail region all restarted, and the US Lotte was under maintenance [23]. - **Demand Situation**: The downstream load was 88.7%, an increase of 0.4%. The terminal texturing load increased by 6% to 67%, and the loom load increased by 3% to 59% [23]. - **Import and Inventory Situation**: The import arrival forecast was 15.7 million tons, and the East China departure volume on July 24 was 1.1 million tons, with an increase in outbound volume. Port inventories were 53.3 million tons, a decrease of 2 million tons [23]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The naphtha-based production profit was -305 yuan, the domestic ethylene-based production profit was -462 yuan, and the coal-based production profit was 976 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 820 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit-mouth bituminous coal fines increased to 580 yuan [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $750 billion worth of US energy products. This will lead to a short - term decline in the US dollar index [15]. - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, but risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [3]. - The 10 - department joint issuance of the plan to promote agricultural product consumption aims to boost agricultural product consumption through various measures. The decline in industrial enterprise profits in June has narrowed, and the new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth [17][18]. - The export data of Malaysian palm oil is poor, and the domestic oil mill operating rate is expected to increase. Steel prices have risen significantly due to the continuous increase in coking coal and coke prices and the relatively strong fundamentals of finished products, but there is a risk of overvaluation [5]. - Polysilicon is expected to correct in the short term, and it is advisable to consider short - selling lightly through options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments. The EU hopes to continue discussions on steel and aluminum tariffs with the US. The applicable tariff will be the higher of the "most - favored - nation tariff" or 15%. The short - term market risk preference will moderately recover, and the US dollar index will decline in the short term [13][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will decline in the short term [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - 10 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption" to promote agricultural product consumption through various measures. In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the decline has narrowed. The new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth. The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, which may set an example for upcoming China - US tariffs. A Politburo meeting will be held this week, and attention should be paid to its statements on the economic work in the second half of the year [17][18][19]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate stock indexes evenly [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, but there are still differences in key industry tariffs. The US durable goods orders in June decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, better than the expected - 10.7%. The core data excluding Boeing orders performed well. The US - EU tariff negotiation has accelerated, and the risk of further deterioration of the tariff level has decreased, supporting market risk preference [21][22]. - Investment advice: The trade negotiation is moving in a positive direction, and it will still fluctuate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 601.8 billion yuan. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, and the funds are expected to become looser after the end of the month. However, risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [23]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to cautiously bet on the opportunity of oversold rebound next week. Do not be bearish in the long term, but the market will be volatile in Q3, and it may be too early for allocation buyers to go long at present [24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Linfen market is running strongly. The recent futures price increase is mainly due to macro - policies. The National Energy Administration plans to conduct a verification of coal mine production in key coal - producing provinces, but the actual impact of checking over - production may be limited. The price may return to the fundamentals. The supply of coking coal has recovered partially this week, and the coke price has increased for the third time, with some steel mills accepting the increase [25][26]. - Investment advice: The market sentiment for coking coal is still strong, but the risk is high as the price rises significantly. Pay attention to position management [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 30th week was 2.2389 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.94%. It is expected to reach 2.3726 million tons and 66.69% in the 31st week. From July 1 - 25, the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.23% month - on - month. The production of Malaysian palm oil in July is expected to increase, and the inventory will increase significantly. China may export 100,000 - 120,000 tons of soybean oil to India [28][29]. - Investment advice: The data from Malaysia is bearish for palm oil. It is not recommended to short unilaterally. Consider buying put options or waiting for opportunities to go long at low prices. For international soybean oil, focus on US weather and bio - fuel policies. For domestic soybean oil, if exports to India increase, it will support prices [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The international sugar price has fluctuated greatly. The expected increase in production in Brazil and India and the rumor of India's export in the 2025/26 season have put pressure on the price. India's sugar export may be unfeasible at current international prices. The sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have cleared their warehouses, and the spot price in Guangxi has remained stable with a narrow - range shock. The sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil has decreased in June [31][33][34]. - Investment advice: The international sugar market is under pressure from supply. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate mainly. Pay attention to the resistance level of 5900 yuan [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the first half of 2025, China's cotton product exports increased under pressure. As of mid - July, the pre - sale progress of Brazilian cotton in 2025 was 65%. As of July 17, the weekly net signing of US cotton in the 25/26 season was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%. The ICE cotton price is expected to be in a low - level shock pattern in the short term [36][37][39]. - Investment advice: The lack of news about increased import quotas in China, tight old - cotton inventory, and high operating rates in Xinjiang spinning mills will support cotton prices in the short term. However, the demand from inland spinning mills is weakening, and the increase in warehouse receipts and the expectation of increased production in the 25/26 season may limit the upward trend of cotton prices [40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina has lowered the export tariffs on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. The operating rate of domestic oil mills has remained high. China has stopped purchasing US soybeans since the end of May, and the pre - sale of US new - crop soybeans is significantly lower than the normal level in previous years [41][42]. - Investment advice: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Focus on the development of the China - US trade war. Soybean meal inventory will continue to accumulate, and the spot basis will remain weak [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Most coal mines in Ordos maintained normal production on July 23, and the coal price was stable with a slight increase. The implementation of the over - production policy and high summer temperatures are expected to keep the coal price strong. The power plant's inventory has decreased slightly, and the coal price is expected to return to around the long - term agreement price of 670 yuan [43][44]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to remain strong, and it is expected to return to around 670 yuan, the long - term agreement price [44]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore production and sales of Mount Gibson in the second quarter decreased year - on - year. Affected by coking coal and coke, the iron ore price has fluctuated strongly, but it has encountered resistance after breaking through $105. The long - term increase in the price center of coking coal and coke will suppress the upside potential of iron ore [45]. - Investment advice: Observe the follow - up of the spot market after the price pull - back. The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, so it is recommended to reduce the position [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The fifth blast furnace of Vietnam's Hoa Phat Group's Dung Quat Steel Complex has been put into operation, increasing the annual production capacity by 5.6 million tons. The total new - signed contract value of the top seven construction central enterprises in the first six months exceeded 5.9 trillion yuan. South Korea will impose temporary anti - dumping duties on hot - rolled steel plates imported from China and Japan. Steel prices have risen significantly, but there is a risk of overvaluation [47][49][50]. - Investment advice: Steel prices will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously [51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn starch sugar is average, and the operating rate has decreased. The consumption of corn and corn starch has decreased this week [52]. - Investment advice: Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low. This is not favorable for the rice - flour price difference [53][54]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 2.5 percentage points year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy in the breeding industry may reduce the corn demand in the new year [55]. - Investment advice: The stalemate in the spot market may continue until the new corn is on the market. The 09 contract may weaken in advance. Hold the short positions of new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures. The price of lithium carbonate has increased, and there are rumors about production cuts in some areas. The limit - trading measure is expected to stabilize the market [56][57]. - Investment advice: Before the production cuts are confirmed, there is no upward momentum for the price. Pay attention to the downstream procurement. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of holding inventory and reverse arbitrage [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The EU has started monitoring the trade of scrap copper and aluminum. Teck Resources has lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine. Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary has started its new smelter [59][60][61]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, be cautious about the repeated macro - expectations. The copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit, daily limit, margin, and handling fees for industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. The spot price of polysilicon has increased slightly, but the actual transaction has not changed much. The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in July and August, with a monthly surplus of 100,000 - 200,000 tons [63][64][65]. - Investment advice: The delivery price of polysilicon sets a lower limit for the futures price. However, due to the difficulty of the spot price to keep up with the futures price increase, the short - term price is expected to correct. Consider short - selling lightly through options and look for opportunities to go long after the correction [66]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production and operating rate of industrial silicon in Xinjiang, the Northwest, Yunnan, and Sichuan have shown different trends. The social inventory has decreased, and the factory inventory has increased. The supply is expected to increase with the resumption of production, and the supply - demand gap will narrow in August [67][68][69]. - Investment advice: After the price increase, the basis of industrial silicon has weakened rapidly. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling at high prices or selling out - of - the - money call options [69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Danantara is considering acquiring the GNI smelter in Indonesia. The nickel price has been strong recently but fell on Friday night. There are different statements about Indonesia's nickel export policy. The price of Philippine nickel ore has decreased, and the price of nickel iron has increased, but the steel mills' purchasing intention is not strong [70][71]. - Investment advice: The nickel price is closely related to macro - sentiment. It is recommended to use options for hedging in unilateral trading. Holders can sell for hedging at high prices [72]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - From January to June 2025, the number of electric bicycles recycled and replaced was 8.465 million each. The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1. The overseas macro - situation has limited fluctuations. The supply of primary lead is tight, and the production of secondary lead has increased slightly. The demand from end - users has not improved significantly, but the lead social inventory may turn around [73][74][75]. - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices and manage the position well. For arbitrage, it is recommended to observe temporarily [76]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The port inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased by 860,000 tons compared with last week. The 0 - 3 cash spread of LME zinc has turned negative, but the注销仓单 is still high. The zinc smelting profit may improve in August, and the supply is expected to remain high. The demand from primary processing industries is differentiated, and the social inventory has increased significantly [77][78]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, the risk is high, and it is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of medium - term calendar spread positive arbitrage. It is recommended to observe in terms of domestic - foreign trading [79]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On July 25, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 71.34 euros/ton, a 0.65% increase from the previous day and a 2.07% increase from last week. The investment funds reduced their net long positions by 100,000 tons last week. The carbon price is expected to be volatile in the short term [80]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will be volatile in the short term [81]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle - East oil price has strengthened relative to Brent. The increase in the Middle - East oil export volume is limited. The strong diesel crack spread and EU sanctions on Russia support the Middle - East oil price [82][83]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain volatile. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and market risk preference [84]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On July 25, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was slightly adjusted. The supply has increased, and the demand is average. The caustic soda futures price has increased due to the overall positive sentiment in the commodity market, but the increase is limited [85][86]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda valuation is not low, and the speculative demand is difficult to stimulate, resulting in a small increase [86]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is generally stable, with individual prices increasing slightly. The futures price has continued to rise, but the downstream paper mills' follow - up is not strong, and high - price transactions are difficult [87]. - Investment advice: Due to the "anti - involution" policy, low - valued pulp may be targeted by funds. Investors should pay attention to the risks [88]. 3.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of anti - involution narratives and expectations of incremental policies, the overall stock and commodity markets remain strong, while long - term bonds are under pressure. The market is affected by factors such as trade negotiations, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships in different sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index - There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small amount of short positions in put options on MO with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, and reduce positions, maintaining a moderately bullish stance. On the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term and pay attention to the capital situation and incremental policies [2]. Treasury Bonds - The risk assets suppress long - term bonds. With the tightening of the capital market, the short - selling sentiment in the bond futures market has increased, and the redemption pressure on bond funds may start to rise, which still suppresses the bond market. In terms of the curve strategy, it is possible to continue to bet on the steepening [2]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by the weakening of the US dollar's credit and its commodity attributes, and it oscillates above the 60 - day moving average. Silver has further upside potential due to the general rise of domestic industrial products and capital inflows, and long positions can be held. Gold continues to correct as the European Central Bank pauses rate cuts for the first time in a year and the risk - aversion sentiment eases [2]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract rebounds slightly. With the increasing expectation of anti - involution, the price continues to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 08 contract or short the 10 contract at high prices [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - The iron ore has insufficient upward momentum as the molten iron output slightly decreases and the port inventory slightly increases. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore. The steel price continues to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be held [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - The expectation of production - restriction documents is rising, the resumption of coal mines is lagging, the spot market is strong, and the transaction is picking up. The third round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has started, and there is still an expectation of price increases. It is recommended to take profits on long positions step by step at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The short - term sentiment fades, and high copper prices suppress demand. - Aluminum: The market sentiment is bullish, and the aluminum price oscillates at a high level, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. - Other non - ferrous metals also have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on factors such as macro - sentiment, inventory, and supply - demand [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The macro - sentiment eases, and the demand expectation recovers, pushing up the oil price. - Other energy and chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions according to factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and cost [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions based on factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [2]. Special Commodities - Glass: The document on air pollution prevention boosts market sentiment, and the spot transaction is strong. - Rubber: The macro - sentiment is positive, and supply disruptions due to rainy weather in overseas production areas and conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia drive up the rubber price. - Other special commodities also have corresponding market trends and trading suggestions [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures oscillate and rise to a new high, but attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback due to the increase in warehouse receipts. - Recycled lithium: The market sentiment is boosted, but the fundamental change is not significant. It is recommended to be cautious and stay on the sidelines [2].

Group 1: Internet Media - Google's advertising revenue exceeded expectations in Q2 2025, indicating overall active economic activity in the U.S. and alleviating concerns about AI's impact on traditional search engine advertising [2] - Google Cloud's revenue and profitability were strong, leading to an upward revision of the annual capital expenditure guidance, with AI demand continuing to outstrip supply [2] - The full-stack AI industry chain comprising data centers, ASICs, algorithms, and products gives Google a solid and differentiated advantage in the AI field, suggesting continued attention is warranted [2] Group 2: Petrochemicals - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to launch a growth stabilization plan for the petrochemical industry, which is expected to promote the elimination of outdated capacity and lead to healthier industry development [3] - Key companies to watch include: in the soda ash sector, Boyuan Chemical, Shandong Haihua, China Salt Chemical, and Shuanghuan Technology; in the PVC sector, Xinjiang Tianye, Sanyou Chemical, and Chlor-alkali Chemical [3] Group 3: Non-ferrous Metals - The recent Central Financial Committee's emphasis on legally governing low-price disorderly competition is expected to facilitate the orderly exit of outdated capacity in the copper smelting industry [4] - If the "anti-involution" theme is implemented, it may limit new copper smelting capacity and accelerate the exit of small smelting capacities, leading to improved profitability for smelting enterprises [4] - Companies to focus on include Tongling Nonferrous Metals, China Daye Nonferrous Metals, Jiangxi Copper, and Yunnan Copper [4] Group 4: Construction - The commencement of the Yajiang Hydropower Station is expected to generate new demand for construction and materials [5] - Recommended companies include China Power Construction, China Energy Construction, China Communications Construction, and China Railway, along with material suppliers like Huaxin Cement and Tibet Tianlu [5] Group 5: Pharmaceuticals - The precise adjustment of medical insurance policies is reshaping the pharmaceutical industry ecosystem, with the "anti-involution" in procurement clearing low-quality capacity and creating market space for quality enterprises [6] - Focus on two types of companies: those that continue to be selected in procurement with dual advantages in quality and cost, and innovative drug companies with rich R&D pipelines [6] - Recommended companies include Heng Rui Medicine, Jingxin Pharmaceutical, and Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical, with attention to MicroPort Medical, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, and Fangsheng Pharmaceutical [6] Group 6: Automotive - Tesla's Q2 2025 performance showed a recovery, with a shift in focus towards AI-driven initiatives like Robotaxi and humanoid robots [8] - Due to uncertainties in overseas policies and market sales, the 2025E/2026E/2027E Non-GAAP net profit estimates have been adjusted to $6.06 billion, $8.77 billion, and $11.28 billion respectively [8] - Tesla's leading position in AI technology iteration and commercialization capabilities remains a positive outlook [8] Group 7: Internet Literature - The online reading business of the report's subject company remains stable, but revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down to 7.39 billion, 7.95 billion, and 8.14 billion yuan due to uncertainties in new series and adjustments in short drama revenue recognition [9] - The company's proprietary profit continues to improve, supported by the strong performance of new businesses like short dramas and IP derivatives [9] - The full-year performance growth remains highly certain, with adjusted net profit forecasts of 1.35 billion, 1.53 billion, and 1.66 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, methanol, urea, rubber, PVC, styrene, polyolefins, and polyester. It believes that in the context of low Cushing inventories, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum, but the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. For other products, it provides specific analyses based on factors such as supply, demand, cost, and inventory, and gives corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.74, or 1.13%, to $66.16; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.69, or 1.00%, to $69.36; INE main crude oil futures rose 6.60 yuan, or 1.27%, to 527 yuan [1]. - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.74 million barrels to 12.97 million barrels, a 6.02% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 1.19 million barrels to 7.87 million barrels, a 13.15% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.31 million barrels to 23.70 million barrels, a 1.34% increase; total refined oil inventories decreased by 0.14 million barrels to 44.54 million barrels, a 0.32% decrease [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Given the low Cushing inventories, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A target price of $70/barrel for WTI in the September hurricane season is set, and it is recommended to buy on dips and take profits [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the 09 contract rose 69 yuan/ton to 2480 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 48 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 15 [4]. - **Analysis**: The market is significantly driven by news, with increased volatility and operational difficulty. The upstream operating rate continues to decline, and profits have slightly decreased but remain at a relatively high level. Overseas plant operating rates have returned to medium - high levels, and market fluctuations have narrowed. The port olefin load has increased this week, while traditional demand is in the off - season, with the operating rates of formaldehyde and acetic acid decreasing and those of chlorides and MTBE increasing. The overall demand is weak. After the methanol price decline, downstream profits have been repaired but remain at a low level, and the methanol spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside is expected to be limited. The domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand in the future, and it is recommended to wait and see after a sharp rise [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the 09 contract rose 12 yuan/ton to 1785 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 15 [6]. - **Analysis**: Affected by the deepening of the domestic anti - involution policy, the domestic industrial products have risen sharply, and urea has also increased significantly. However, most fixed - bed plants have completed technological upgrades, and it is mainly affected by short - term sentiment. The domestic operating rate has slightly decreased, and the overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level, with cost support expected to gradually strengthen. The compound fertilizer operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded, and the subsequent operating rate will continue to increase, which will support the demand for urea. Export containerization continues, and port inventories continue to rise. The domestic urea supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. Currently, the urea valuation is neutral to low, and the supply - demand margin is expected to improve. It is more advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips and not to chase the market when the price rises [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: After continuous rises, NR and RU showed volatile trends, and the bullish sentiment in the commodity market has weakened [8]. - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may contribute to rubber production cuts, the seasonal trend usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [15]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Rubber prices are likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish view should be maintained, and positions should be built at appropriate times. In the short term, due to the large increase, the risk of a pullback should be guarded against. A neutral approach is recommended, with quick entry and exit. There is an opportunity to increase positions in the spread operation of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 87 yuan to 5238 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 5090 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 148 (-67) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 114 (+4) yuan/ton [13]. - **Analysis**: The cost side remains stable, the overall PVC operating rate has increased, the downstream operating rate has decreased, factory inventories have decreased, and social inventories have increased. Corporate profits have continued to improve, the number of maintenance operations has gradually decreased, and production is at a five - year high. In the short term, multiple sets of plants will be put into operation. The domestic downstream operating rate is at a five - year low and is still in the off - season. The anti - dumping extension in India has marginally improved the pessimistic expectations, and the cost support has weakened. The pessimistic expectations in the fundamentals have improved due to the extension of the anti - dumping in India, but there are still pressures in supply - demand and valuation. In the short term, the price is strong under the stimulation of the anti - dumping extension and anti - involution sentiment, and the risk of sentiment fading should be guarded against [13]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [15]. - **Analysis**: After the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the China Iron and Steel Association issued statements on the anti - involution policy, the coal sector rose and then stabilized, and the cost side still has support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The bullish view is based on demand expectations and production cut expectations, while the bearish view is based on the falsification of demand. The cost side of pure benzene has increased its operating rate, and the supply is relatively abundant. The supply - side profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has decreased, but the styrene operating rate has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have increased significantly. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products has fluctuated and increased. In the short term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the styrene price is expected to follow the cost side [15][17]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [19]. - **Analysis**: The black sector rose and then stabilized, and the cost side still has support. The polyethylene spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. Trader inventories are fluctuating at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. In the seasonal off - season, the demand - side agricultural film orders are fluctuating at a low level, and the overall operating rate is declining. The short - term contradiction has shifted from the cost - driven downward trend to the high - maintenance - driven inventory reduction. With the commissioning of the Huizhou ExxonMobil ethylene plant in July, the polyethylene price is expected to fluctuate downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [20]. - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, with the marginal return of propylene supply. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. In the seasonal off - season, under the background of weak supply and demand, the polypropylene price is expected to be bearish in July [20]. Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 96 yuan to 6956 yuan, the PX CFR rose 14 dollars to 856 dollars, the basis was 87 (+16) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 108 (+24) yuan [22]. - **Analysis**: The PX maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA maintenance season is also over, and the load level is high. The processing fee has been repaired, and the inventory level is low. Even though the polyester and terminal sectors are in the off - season, the short - term negative feedback pressure on PX is still small. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventories. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude oil price [22][23]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 66 yuan to 4850 yuan, the East China spot price rose 5 yuan to 4815 yuan, the basis was 0 (-2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 26 (+22) yuan [24]. - **Analysis**: The PTA load remains unchanged. The downstream load has increased. The social inventory has increased. The spot processing fee has decreased, and the futures processing fee has increased. In the future, the supply - side maintenance volume in July is small, and new plants will be put into operation, with expected continuous inventory accumulation. The PTA processing fee repair space is limited. The demand side is under pressure in the off - season. Due to the low inventory level and the repair of the processing fee, the upward negative feedback pressure is expected to be small. The PXN has support under the pattern improvement brought about by PTA commissioning. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX [24]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 49 yuan to 4485 yuan, the East China spot price rose 29 yuan to 4530 yuan, the basis was 58 (-4) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 3 (-3) yuan [25]. - **Analysis**: The supply - side load has increased, the downstream load has increased, the import arrival forecast is 15.7 million tons, the East China departure volume on July 23 was 0.8 million tons, and the warehouse - out volume has increased. The port inventory has decreased by 2 million tons. The naphtha - based production profit is - 279 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit is - 556 yuan, and the coal - based production profit is 955 yuan. The cost side of ethylene remains unchanged, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines has increased. The overseas and domestic maintenance plants are gradually starting, and the downstream operating rate is continuously declining due to the off - season. The port inventory reduction is expected to gradually slow down. The valuation is relatively high compared to the same period. The maintenance season is gradually ending, and the fundamentals are changing from strong to weak. However, recently, under the consistent weak expectations, the actual operating rate has exceeded expectations. The unexpected situation of Saudi plants has led to a decrease in import expectations, and multiple domestic plants have had unexpected situations, combined with the low arrival volume, resulting in a reduction in low - level inventories. The short - term valuation has upward support [25].